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#1351 Re: Human missions » Colonization; - Who will be first? » 2005-02-23 12:20:58

I find the preoccupation with revolution a somewhat American centric view of history. A Mars colony founded by the states may or may not revolt but then again so may California.

True, but isn't the American government the most likely current source of funding for a 1st settlement? Ameri-centric thinking may well be appropriate.  :;):

#1352 Re: Human missions » Colonization; - Who will be first? » 2005-02-23 12:19:06

Chicken and egg Bill, chicken and egg...

No RLV, no city

Ah, but if you had inside information that the RLV was almost done, take the leap.

A true RLV will take many years to build

A Mars mission perminant enough to make a valid land grab will take years to prepare

So, there ain't gonna be a "surprise Mars colony mission" just in time to beat the RLVs

If an H-t-G RLV can be done, then a first colony might be the impetus to finish it. Otherwise, who will pay to build this RLV? And why?

IIRC -- As of today, there is NO money on the table anywhere for building an RLV.

= = =

Sounds about right Rob, but I think that growing plants on Mars or in near-zero gravity will be so hard that Martians will be doing well just to feed themselves. The biggest problems are lack of nutrients and much, much less sunlight.

Ammonia. Mars needs ammonia and lots of nukes for grow light.


Edited By BWhite on 1109182973

#1353 Re: Human missions » Colonization; - Who will be first? » 2005-02-23 12:14:44

I doubt Martian water will be used extensively as fuel beyond Mars orbit because of the cost of launching it.

The "cost" of launching gets added to the Marsian GDP if Mars workers are making Mars rocket fuel and refurbish scavenged RL-10 engines and fuel tanks used to send supplies to Mars.

If a Mars settlement needs cash in their Swiss bank account and Dennis Wingo's SkyCorp needs 30,000 pounds of methane at L1 to help fuel his lunar platinum mines and will pay $100 million for the methane and if the Mars settlement has some refurbished RL-10s sitting in a dome somewhere maybe a deal can be brokered.

Phobos or Deimos is "better" - - I agree - - but that does not mean a first Mars settlement cannot raise some ancillary cash  by sending volatiles to L1.


Edited By BWhite on 1109182552

#1354 Re: Human missions » Colonization; - Who will be first? » 2005-02-23 10:38:53

Anyway - - the nation-state is NOT well suited to accomplish space settlement. The first thing any self respecting space colony will do is revolt.

Unless given sufficient slack on the leash. If handled right, a nationally sponsored but nominally independent colony could bring great benefits. Essentially treat them as independent and trade with them for goods and services, work out arrangements. No need to be too overt about matters of who is really in charge. The wiggle-room it allows for with regards to treaties could be quite valuable on its own.

A private group that treated the various world governments as factors to be manipulated rather than the protagonist or entity that leads the way could do well.

Because I agree, access to heavy lift (or RLVs) and nuclear power  is essential and both technologies are coveted by plenty of rogue nations.

Today, ANY settlement effort will need at least the tacit consent of Uncle Sam. Imagine Tom Ridge's reaction to a group of libertarian nut-jobs asking for 144 pounds of plutonium to fuel a pair of Mars reactors?

(I recall a Calvin & Hobbes cartoon - - "Mom, can I buy a  flamethrower?" )

= = =

Slack on the leash? That requires a philosopher king, a leader who has the ability to engage in genuine introspection.   :;):


Edited By BWhite on 1109176887

#1355 Re: Human missions » Colonization; - Who will be first? » 2005-02-23 10:15:43

I have always been a Third Way guy. Hernando de Soto and Amartya Sen and so on. Watching the establishment of a global oligarchy of mega-corporations hardly strike me as a libertarian utopia.  :;):  President Kerry would merely have been a finger in the dike against the onslaught of corporate oligarchy.

Anyway - - the nation-state is NOT well suited to accomplish space settlement. The first thing any self respecting space colony will do is revolt.


Edited By BWhite on 1109175384

#1356 Re: Human missions » Colonization; - Who will be first? » 2005-02-23 09:47:21

Bill has some interesting ideas on the financing aspect, worthy of further examination if a totally privatized mission is the objective. My own take would require a government with greater vision and a penchant for nefarious scheming at the expense of other interests. Most likely a bit of both will be needed.

But it would sure be something to be standing on Mars when that first big-budget colony ship arrives, waving smugly.  big_smile

The ironic bit about this issue is that this lily livered liberal, Bill White, zooms to a  point far more libertarian than many of those who believe they are further "right" than he.

big_smile

= = =

You don't need a PhD in nuclear engineering to operate a reactor.

A retired Navy officer, who has spent his whole life running one of Admiral Rickover's tea kettles would seem perfect for this job.  big_smile


Edited By BWhite on 1109174366

#1357 Re: Human missions » Colonization; - Who will be first? » 2005-02-23 09:41:33

Chicken and egg Bill, chicken and egg...

No RLV, no city

Ah, but if you had inside information that the RLV was almost done, take the leap.

#1358 Re: Human missions » Colonization; - Who will be first? » 2005-02-23 09:02:37

This, I disagree with as a necessary precondition:

First, McCullough explained, is that advanced lunar infrastructure will provide semi-finished modules and other lunar materials for integrating and expanding space systems. Secondly, large vehicles can be fabricated in space using mostly automated methods. These great vessels could shuttle between planetary LaGrange points far from Earth. Lastly, large passenger-carrying vehicles will need to haul a massive "water radiation shelter" to protect occupants on outward bound flights.

Like with honest-to-God RLVs =IF= some fringe group sees the handwriting on the wall and realizes that RLVs are coming soon and lunar infrastructure will be built, then to dash for Mars and build your city first has very real competitive advantages.

Even if you have to rough it to get there.

That Boeing guy may be a terrific engineer but he hasn't read enough history.  :;):

= = =

Let the other guy pay to build out the cislunar infrastruture while YOU focus on grabbing the prime Mars settlement land.

big_smile  tongue


Edited By BWhite on 1109171093

#1359 Re: Human missions » Colonization; - Who will be first? » 2005-02-23 08:51:36

http://space.com/businesstechnology/tec … .html]This article summarizes what my intuition has been telling me for years.

Technologies are converging and the cost and risk associated with actual settlement, out there, will continue to fall, perhaps rapidly with breakthroughs in materials science. Abdundant Mars water means imports to Mars for life support can be kept at a minimum.

If there is super abundant Mars water, it can be exported to L1 to support the mining of lunar platinum and lunar tourism in the event wringing water from the lunar regolith proves too difficult.

How to ship Mars water to L1? My thought is to simply re-use RL-10 engines or RL-60 engines scavenged from supply missions sending materials to Mars. Mars volatiles are worth no less than $3000 per pound FOB at L1.

If you re-use the engines and tanks that deliver supplies to Mars  (refurbished with settlement labor and fueled with Marsian LOX & methane/LH2) then the net "cost" to the Terran management is zero. Every penny of the $3000 per pound paid for Mars volatiles shipped to  L1 remains out in space rather than returned to Earth. 

Bottom line - - I predict we will see a "Dutch auction" situation develop.

Whichever subset of humanity grabs for the brass ring first (and best) and sets up a permanent settlement, well tat subset of humnaity will exert a disproportionate influence over the coming centuries of human development.

As that Confederate general said, "Get there firstest with the mostest" - - that will win the settlememt races of the 21st centiury.

= = =

If GCNRevenger gets his honest to God RLV and Earth to LEO falls well below $500 per pound, humanity explodes out into space either way.

But - if someone had the foresight to build a Mars city one decade before honest-to-God RLVs come on line - - - are those HtG RLVs? - - those investors will make out like bandits. It would be like buying land BEFORE the interstate highway came through.

Dutch auction and bullish on space development. Rah! Team!


Edited By BWhite on 1109170444

#1360 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political cartoons - Random assortments » 2005-02-22 19:19:08

Then there is the http://www.dailykos.com/images/user/3/aarp.gif]AARP

I think this ad has been pulled by the Right. Major bad mojo.

Too bad, so sad. big_smile

#1361 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri III - The next round. » 2005-02-22 16:09:53

The homophobia in this country has, like so many other issues, a schizophrenic quality.

That's for sure. Now is this a http://us.news2.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/ … .jpg]goose or what?

#1363 Re: Not So Free Chat » Intarweb sigs - Share your favorites! » 2005-02-22 13:33:01

"Just for today, let's pretend Europe isn't Godless, terrorist-loving and out of touch with reality, ok?

Cut me some slack. I gotta mend some bridges here."

#1364 Re: Human missions » Post central for information on CEV III - Continued from previous » 2005-02-22 11:55:31

http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story.asp … xn0BgvY]Is Kistler back?

In June, the Government Accountability Office advised NASA the protest [Musk vs Kistler] was valid, so the agency rescinded its deal with Kistler -- the matter closed, but hardly forgotten.

The opening bell for Round 2 sounded this month with the release of NASA's proposed spending plan for fiscal year 2006, which begins Oct. 1, and the clock ticking down toward the space shuttle's retirement.

NASA now is far more than interested in alternative transportation services to the space station. With Russia on schedule to complete its contractual requirements for rides to the station on Soyuz spacecraft next year, NASA must secure other transportation to the station.

In addition, though the space shuttle's anticipated return to flight this year -- currently scheduled for May 15 -- should buy NASA some time, there will be at least a four-year gap between the shuttle fleet's retirement in 2010 and the start of crew transports aboard NASA's proposed follow-on spacecraft, the Crew Exploration Vehicle.

Thus, in reviving its call for "alternative access to the space station" and budgeting $160 million for such services in 2006 -- and a total of $1.7 billion over the next five years -- NASA now is adding an option for commercial companies to ferry not just cargo, but also crewmembers to space. If it comes to fruition, NASA itself will provide a huge incentive for the nascent sub-orbital commercial spaceflight industry to aim for higher ground.

Kistler, for one, is keenly interested in transporting goods and eventually people into orbit for NASA.

Does UPI have this right? $1.7 billion for "alternate access" to ISS? And the Kistler in the running?

Thus, in reviving its call for "alternative access to the space station" and budgeting $160 million for such services in 2006 -- and a total of $1.7 billion over the next five years -- NASA now is adding an option for commercial companies to ferry not just cargo, but also crewmembers to space.

= = =

More:

With the K-1 vehicle 75 percent completed and financing lined up to emerge from bankruptcy within a month or two, Kistler has a new business plan, which while not dependent on NASA, is positioning the firm to ride the waves of change that have been pummeling the space agency since the 2003 shuttle Columbia accident and President George W. Bush's redirection of the agency's priorities from the shuttle fleet and the space station to human exploration of the moon, Mars and beyond.

* * *

Still, when NASA puts out the call for commercial space transport service proposals later this year, Brinkley said the K-1 will stand on its own.

"I think we have an inherent capability," he said.

K-1's debut flight is expected in early 2007, Brinkley said, adding that the company is looking at alternative U.S. launch sites, particularly at the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida, to serve NASA and a variety of commercial customers.



Edited By BWhite on 1109095129

#1367 Re: Water on Mars » A huge, frozen sea lies just below the surface of » 2005-02-21 15:42:26

If confirmed, Mars settlement just got way easier.  big_smile

#1368 Re: Life on Mars » Perhaps Shaun Barrett - is RIGHT! :-) » 2005-02-21 14:51:16

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/m … 17.html]An ancient Gaia?

It's more plausible now:

Water was common across a vast region of ancient Mars, creating habitable conditions for long stretches of time billions of years ago, scientists said Thursday.

New data reveal water in the Meridiani Planum region of Mars extended across hundreds of thousands of square miles, at least as groundwater and possibly as shallow lakes or seas.

The work significantly expands the amount of surface area on Mars known to have once been water-laden, and it extends the period of time that the water was present.



Edited By BWhite on 1109019086

#1369 Re: Human missions » Post central for information on CEV III - Continued from previous » 2005-02-21 14:27:12

Everything else, I agree with Clark's last post... you are making a mountain out of a molhill.

Well all-righty, then.

"Uncle"

big_smile

#1370 Re: Water on Mars » Getting water on mars » 2005-02-21 12:07:40

Just might be easier than we thought. ???
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn7039] 'Pack ice' suggests frozen sea on Mars

A frozen sea, surviving as blocks of pack ice, may lie just beneath the surface of Mars, suggest observations from Europe's Mars Express spacecraft. The sea is just 5° north of the Martian equator and would be the first discovery of a large body of water beyond the planet's polar ice caps.

Images from the High Resolution Stereo Camera on Mars Express show raft-like ground structures - dubbed "plates" - that look similar to ice formations near Earth's poles, according to an international team of scientists.

Just came here bringing the same link.  big_smile

If true, early settlers will have more water than they can use. Now , all we need is a local source of nitrogen.

#1371 Re: Human missions » Post central for information on CEV III - Continued from previous » 2005-02-20 23:04:21

I just re-read the full http://www.spacepolitics.com/archives/000446.html]space politics link. Credit to Jeff Foust

According to a Congressional source, NASA is planning to transfer $150 million in FY05 funding out of Project Prometheus to other, unidentified programs.

#1372 Re: Human missions » Post central for information on CEV III - Continued from previous » 2005-02-20 22:46:57

No signifigant funding? I was under the impression that Prometheus was getting at least a large portion of what was requested.

Prometheus per se is being rolled into another project since we may not have the HLLV needed to fly JIMO and I do not believe there is any funding in the VSE - - whatsoever - - for reactors that can generate surface power (the MarsDirect reactor) or provide propulsion other than nuclear ion.

Prmoetheus also has a very long timeline and the snarky comment I snagged off of spacepolitics suggests that its really a "bridge" to keep the nuclear engineers employed until a new Navy propulsion project rolls around.

If we lack a clear "why" mandate for sending folks to the Moon and Mars permanently, why not move the Prometheus people into a new submarine project in 2009? Especially if budgets remain tight?

= = =
From the stolen comment:

To support the VSE, a reactor design compatible with lunar/martian surface operations is a different beast than a deep space NEP reactor due to material issues. Both concepts are completely out of the realm of experience of DOE-NR which deals with water reactors. It will take them several years just to get comfortable with the materials issues let alone optimizing the design for space applications. By then, public and congressional support will likely have evaporated.

Here is an interesting test.

=IF= we intend to continue development of reactors such as SAFE or using liquid metal heat transport after Prometheus (for surface operations on Moon/Mars for example) will we have enough qualified nuclear engineers in the pipeline to do that AND design the next generation reactors for military purposes?

Since no one has experience with the reactors we will need for genuine space exploration, are we telling grad students that liquid metal heat transport is an assured growth field? A guaranteed meal ticket for one's career?

I do not know, but it would seem easy enough to poll grad students at MIT or CalTech. If Prometheus is to be the tip of a very big push in the space-rated reactor field, then graduate advisors should know that already. If not, then who will build those reactors?

Or is that something we don't worry about until 2018 and afterwards?



Edited By BWhite on 1108962357

#1373 Re: Not So Free Chat » Proof of a superior Euro-culture - and the Yank response » 2005-02-20 21:56:16

Tongue in check, of course.  tongue

Warning - video download requires some bandwidth and maybe some plug-ins.

http://mapage.noos.fr/martialro/ozone/v … l]Original European hit - - Dragostea din Tei

Actually, its a rather catchy dance tune. Seriously.

Now for the http://www.newgrounds.com/collections/numanuma.html]US parody version - - Feta cheese, indeed.  :band:

Try the original version without subtitles. There also is a great Lego stop action animation version. Finding it is a google exercise for my fellow new Marsians.

= = =

http://www.rferl.org/featuresarticle/20 … c38.html]A serious article about this



Edited By BWhite on 1108959771

#1374 Re: Human missions » Post central for information on CEV III - Continued from previous » 2005-02-20 21:41:07

I feel a "NASA = Stupid" moment coming on...

Just who exactly IS qualified to develop portable, reliable nuclear reactors in the high-kw/low-mw range Bill? The folks way back when in the SNAP-10/SP-100n and NERVA are long gone.

With no example reactor of the scale needed to copy from like NERVA, we aren't left with much to start on. At least the folks at DOE know how to build reactors at all, which is a leg up on most design bearaus.

My point is that space rated reactors do not appear to be getting any significant funding as part of the VSE. No one is working seriously on any of this.

Google tells me David Poston has done some really great work, mostly in his free time!

Even the Mars surface nuke needed to run the Zubrin's Sabatiers in MarsDirect does not exist yet and is not part of anyone's current funding.

= = =

Could the US blow the doors off the rest of the world? IMHO, yes =IF= we fund the R&D.

Soyuz is primitive but it works. STS is fundamentally unsafe and staggeringly overpriced and we have no plan B outside of viewgraph dreaming.

= = =

Any NASA-bashing is intended for the top echelons, not our nuclear engineers who I believe could build reactors using compressed helium and liquid metal with no problem if they were given a mandate and funding.



Edited By BWhite on 1108957529

#1375 Re: Human missions » Post central for information on CEV III - Continued from previous » 2005-02-20 20:43:19

The VSE is NOT funding any fundamental research whatsoever.

Nuclear Propulsion? Development of human transport beyond LEO? Developing mitigation strategies for long duration space missions? Development of improved closed loop life cycle?

Bill, this is the fundamental research and development that must be done before we can address if colonization is feasible!

Found this quote at spacepolitics.com

Yet again NASA has completely botched the space nuclear effort. Prometheus will be come nothing more than a job works/engineer training program for the DOE NR laboratory. Given the number of young engineers at NR, the maturity of existing NR reactor designs, and need to keep these lab guys employed now that the latest carrier and submarine reactor design efforts are essentially complete and have progressed to manufacturing and deployment, the NASA nuclear effort is nothing more than a funding bridge to the next reactor effort that is 3-4 yrs down the road. To support the VSE, a reactor design compatible with lunar/martian surface operations is a different beast than a deep space NEP reactor due to material issues. Both concepts are completely out of the realm of experience of DOE-NR which deals with water reactors. It will take them several years just to get comfortable with the materials issues let alone optimizing the design for space applications. By then, public and congressional support will likely have evaporated.

What space rated reactor research are we really doing?

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