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#1251 Re: Human missions » How Soon the Human Landing? » 2021-02-25 20:32:54
Would they put in a commercial payer on the first human flight? I think they'll run it with a professional crew only. But Dear Moon would follow v. quickly after a successful non-commercial flight I think. And yes, I am sure they will do a robot orbital and circumlunar flight before, for each, humans are involved.
I suspect the first manned flight will be the Dear Moon flight with the Japanese Billionaire doing a circumlunar flight, although there may be an unmanned rehearsal first. It would seem only prudent (as well as a probable FAA requirement) before a crew would/could fly.
#1252 Re: Human missions » Starship concrete Mars landing pad » 2021-02-25 17:53:35
This is the best link I have ever found for human landing sites on Mars.
#1253 Re: Terraformation » Potential Multi-World Future » 2021-02-25 17:43:37
On road induction charging will reduce vehicle battery size and obviate the need for charging downtime.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_road#Cost
It would therefore reduce the cost of EVs, possibly making them competitive with or cheaper than ICE cars, particularly given the lower maintenance costs of EVs. It would also reduce tyre wear and thus reduce the pollution profile of EVs which are currently more polluting than you might expect because of tyre wear.It's a guess on my part but I would think you might be able to reduce battery size and weight by 80%.
Yes, there may be a little way to go in terms of technological development but it does seem to be practical already .
Electric rail transportation in its various forms is competitive with diesel on heavy routes, because lower motive energy costs of electricity offset the added capital and maintenance cost of the electrification equipment. One big advantage that electric trains have over other modes of transportation is their ability to draw power directly from the grid, without need for energy storage.
For electric cars, that advantage doesn't exist. Lithium ion batteries have an energy density of 1MJ/kg, versus 40MJ/kg for diesel. Tesla have managed to scrape a decent range by combining high energy density batteries, with a very light chassis and body and by squeezing the drag coefficient as low as it will go. This partially mitigates the overall problem: the crippling low energy density of the batteries. Even so, Tesla remains a rich man's toy, with an average sale price of $59,000.
https://insideevs.com/news/339100/avera … -at-59000/It gets worse: Tesla's fast charging battery will show significant loss of charge after 1000 charge discharge cycles. So after a few years of moderately heavy use, you will need to trade that battery in. The bad news is that it is most of the cost of the car.
Electric aeroplanes will be useless for any flight longer than a few hundred km, due to the low energy-weight ratio of the batteries. Even factoring in the greater efficiency of electric motors compared to gas turbines, you are looking at a factor 16 lower energy density for batteries. When you factor in the increased weight of electric motors and the fact that conventional planes get lighter as they burn fuel, you can expect range to be reduced by a factor of 20. An airframe that could fly 10,000km with jet engines will make 500km, with the same payload and structural margins.
That said, I do agree with Louis that electric transport will play a more significant role in the future. He and I just have very different ideas of what that will look like.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velomobile
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trolleybus
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_rail
https://www.britannica.com/technology/h … e-pipeline
#1254 Re: Human missions » Starship concrete Mars landing pad » 2021-02-24 20:07:07
1. The first cargo and human landings will, perforce, take place on fairly flat rock surfaces identified by NASA as being able to take the mass of Starships.
2. Building a landing pad will be a priority for the next cycle landing (ie Mission 2) but I doubt it will be a concrete pad because of the shortage of labour and the required equipment (plus the difficulty of working in cyrogenic temperatures). So I think it's much more likely that the pioneers will level out a rock surface area, so that gradient is less than 1%, and then place imported heat resistant mats (maybe something like one metre square each) on the levelled rock surface, a bit like laying down carpet tiles. They might need some sort of adhesive or anchoring to keep them in place under the force of the blast of the landing Starship.
#1255 Human missions » How Soon the Human Landing? » 2021-02-24 17:00:04
- louis
- Replies: 20
The Starship/Booster programme seems to be progressing at an impressive lick.
Surely we must see an orbital flight by the year's end.
Am I being too optimistic?
If orbital flight is achieved by end 2021, how do the things stand for the first human landing?
Could it be 2026, with a robot landing in 2024?
That would leave time for some testing orbital flights around the moon - maybe even a lunar landing.
(This speculation includes the very real prospect of political intereference to prevent the programme going forward.)
#1256 Re: Terraformation » Potential Multi-World Future » 2021-02-24 16:12:09
There was a time (around 1910-1920) when coal fired steam, electric batteries and petrol/diesel/gas were kind of co-equal in the world of automobiles and trucks. In fact steam I think was winning out for trucks.
You can have electric trolley buses - London used to have a lot of them. In fact taking them out of service was one of the major contributors to London's notorious smogs of the 50s and early 60s as diesel buses were brought in.
I think a lot of choices have been made on the basis of convenience and flexibility which feed into lower costs.
I am optimistic about virtually all transport, including a lot of air transport switching to green energy electric power over the next couple of decades. Once more it will be as much to do with convenience and flexibility as anything else. If your car can charge itself up through induction coils in the road, that's convenient, not having to worry about running out of petrol/gas.
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This cought my eye. I have had prior exposure to part of the story.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2021 … s-too-soon
Quote:The battery invented 120 years before its time
Way back when, Edison and Ford had a plan to have electric cars, and windmills to charge them. The electric storage in the car might also power some things in the house of the owner.
However, according to the book I read. When Edisons batteries were tested, it appears that it was purposely arranged that they would not be charged up prior to the test. Immediately their was an onslaut of negitive news about the Edison battery, and Ford pulled out.
Edisons labratories mysteriosly burned. He was too old to start over.
In a similar fashion, our advance electric train technology, was looted, and sent overseas to Europe and Japan, so that we could be mocked.
The electric trolly lines that would allow people to travel from Minnesota to the East coast were torn up, and Busses replaced them.
Just a bit of history, perhaps somewhat accurate. I think you can guess who wanted electric motors to go away. Not proven as a sinister plot, but lots of suspects.
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All that is behind. It is not that much worth cairing about at this point.
However the battery mentioned has factors that I think look good for space, and for Mars. Nickle/Iron, can generate Hydrogen, and is rather durable/long lasting. Certainly Nickle/Iron objects are available in parts of space such as the Asteroid belt and other places.
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In the process of chemosynthesis, for Mars and for spacecraft, it may not hurt to have electrical storage, and to be able to produce Hydrogen.
If humans exhale CO2, and you react it in a biochamber with Hydrogen, you output can be among other things CH4. And also biomass.
And of course CO2 is quite available in the Martian atmosphere.
And if you want Oxygen, then of course it may be that organisms that use sunlight and produce O2 may work out.
Done.
#1257 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2021-02-24 16:01:33
Thanks for the further clarification...
Louis-
I believe that SN 7.2 is constructed from 3 mm thickness stainless steel rather than 4 mm thickness, in a move to save vehicle weight and thereby, increase actual payload capacity of Starship.
#1258 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2021-02-24 08:35:07
Ah! Thanks for the clarification - I couldn't enlarge the image!
For Louis #935
First, thanks for the latest link to What About It! That was another interesting piece by Felix!
Regarding the mysterious #72 ... we may see that number if Elon and his team keep going as they've been.
However, the prototype in question is 7 (point) 2.
(th)
#1259 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2021-02-24 08:08:02
An incredible work rate! It's a good job Musk is, officially, the richest person on the planet.
But what the hell is SN72??? Does anyone know?
#1260 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2021-02-23 18:15:07
Interesting "state of progress" video from Felix of the What About It channel:
#1261 Martian Politics and Economy » How soon can Mars become independent? » 2021-02-21 18:27:29
- louis
- Replies: 5
An interesting video from the Whacky Couple:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_LeNq1hP7Q
BTW I think they must dip in here every now and again...the issues covered have been covered in depth here.
#1262 Re: Human missions » Starship concrete Mars landing pad » 2021-02-21 18:08:07
Chicken and egg...how do you land the equipment to make the landing pad?
I have looked into this before and NASA has good info on landing sites in particularly where there are flattish rock beds running down for 10s of metres, and exposed at the surface. These are the landing sites being actively considered.
Yes, there will always be some risk, but I think NASA can reduce it to an acceptable so that the Starship should be able to land on firm contiguous rock.
Have started this new topic as a holder not only raised concerned in the past by G W Johnson but under current means to land much larger payloads.
comments from other topic
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php … 96#p176896
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php … 01#p176901
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php … 14#p176914
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php … 32#p176932http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php … 05#p177005
Calliban wrote:I am aware of the need to continue this topic, but have run short of time lately.
Regarding the construction of a Starship landing pad on Mars, I think that deserves a topic of its own. The concern as I understand it, is that the point loads imposed by the weight of the Starship through its four landing legs, may exceed the crush strength of the local regolith. So we need a way of spreading that load to avoid destabilising the regolith. One way of doing that would be to build up a landing pad from successive layers of rocks and compressed clay. The top layer would be made from iron rich clays with a little carbon mixed in. When smoothed off and flat, we would heat the layer using a radiant tungsten resistance heater up to the melt point of silica (1600C), allowing the surface to partially melt, sinter and for the carbon to reduce the iron oxide. Small sections would be completed one at a time. By finish, there should be a strong and hard iron rich surface coating, made of a mixture of silicate and reduced iron oxide. Many times harder and stronger than concrete. And sitting on top of a landing pad, with layers of clay and stone design to gradually spread weight to the underlying soil.
#1263 Re: Terraformation » Potential Multi-World Future » 2021-02-21 17:05:40
Hi Void -
Some interesting thoughts there.
It seems quite clear that lunar and Martian development will be linked. Once we have a secure home on Mars, we can examine the possibilities for some settlement on Ceres or the Moons of Jupiter and Saturn. Clearly, though it may take several decades, a complex solar system economy will develop.
For me Mars remains the prize, not least because - unlike the Moon - it is sufficiently far enough from Earth to guarantee human survival (unless a catastrophe is on some truly gargantuan, possibly galactic, scale).
I am enthusiastic about the possibilities of paraterraformation of Mars. It seems to me there will likely be a number of paraterraformed spaces:
1. I have often argued for ELEs (Earth Like Environments) to be created in natural or artificial gorges, glassed over and pressurised. These could be filled with Earth-based flora and fauna. Additional light could be focussed on the gorges using reflectors and light pipes. Paths for cyclists and walkers could be created with some entering into cave systems in the gorge walls. By these means, even a fairly small gorge could provide miles of paths for exploration. ELEs could be connected by tunnels, to further extend the exploratory range.
2. Can't recall who it was but someone here posted a proposal for large internal spaces - kind of galleries - that might continue for miles. They could be dug out using cut and cover techniques, and glass roofed over. Within these galleries you could have roadways for electric vehicles, houses, shops, offices and other buildings, plus parks and so on. This may well provide a more human-friendly zone for human living.
3. Domes - yes they could work well as natural focus points e.g. for retail centres.
4. Habs of all kinds but probably connected together so creating large internal spaces with many developing the feel of a major hub airport.
5. Recalling previous discussions, re farm domes, it seems that these could be made of plastics, and work at low pressure maybe 20% of Earth's atmosphere but near 100% CO2.
6. I and others have proposed the possibility of creating large zones where humans could walk in light space suits with breathing apparatus. We would be talking here about large areas being covered in plastic and lightly pressurised.
7. We could create large lakes where people could go scuba diving, with a series of pressurised observation points where people could surface to view their surroundings.
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Potential Multi-World Future
I have decided to post today in a manner which will suit my purposes.
My title may be "Potential Multi-World Future". That being under Terraforming, gives me a lot of lattitude to be a "Busybody Thinker".
I can't fish up the article again, but I read one that said the two are Busybody, and Hunter. On this site these clash, as a hunter seems to want to drill down deep into a specific topic, where a Busybody, is able to cross connect many diverse things, which in some cases would fail, and make a mess, or in some cases produce a new item worth looking into further. I don't like labeling myself as a busybody, but will settle for it just now.
I choose Terraforming & (Paraterraforming), as it does not get much looser that that on this site.
On Paraterraforming. One version of that is domes on a world like Mars, while you do what you can to improve the overall Martian environment, from a humans point of view.
The word dome is to some degree a magical word. Not all that much unlike Harry Potter, with magical words, which are useful in their place. I certainly enjoyed those movies. In technology or science, however, it is a place holder for a need to drill down and actually create a useful device. It is often skipped over, and assumed that it should be available and reliable, simply because the word "Dome" was said. Doing that allows other parts of the problem to be solved, which can be useful, but sooner or later you have to actually create a version of "Dome", that will improve human conditions on other worlds or around other worlds.
We might prefer to use the word "Enclosure", as it would be a word that contain many types of device which may have a modified environment within.
Enclosure technology, needs to exist on all the planets and in the orbits, that humans and their machines may be involved in.
So, the word Enclosure, includes "Glass Domes" on Mars that Elon Musk and others have said, and also, orbital habitats that Jeff Bezos have said.
So, this topic attempts to be "42".
This topic may inlude, Earth + Moon / Mars + Phobos + Deimos / Ceres + other small worlds Asteroid Belt, and maybe Trojans, and Jupiter Moons. But is not limited by that list. I expect all of these collections of worlds to be paraterraformed to some degree in the future.
The placement of this topic here is to a certain degree redundant, because there are other similar topics, but those have various impediments, to full development.
So, by the wordings I have produced above any use of Enclosure Technology, is a form of Paraterraforming, and so best belongs in the Terraforming section. I seek to join orbital enclosures with the objects they are most associated with, and assert that it is really very similar to building Enclosures on a worlds surface or sky, and so are as worthy as they are.
If I speak of Partaterraforming Mars, that does not exclude conversation about orbital enclosures and enclosures inside of moons.
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I am very excited about the technologies that I see comming, that may be assistive and/or vital, for the Paraterrafomation of the worlds that can be reached.
I note the;
-SpaceX machines.
-Vulcan/Dreamchaser.
-New Glen.
I want to see all of them prosper. I read that the Europeans may adopt the Dreamchaser, we will see. And of course across the planetary polical line, it if obvious that others will be comming up with great things.
I wonder about some things, like might SpaceX provide assistance for someone else to build a tail landing mini-starship, and would anyone be interested in that.
The Dreamchaser is interesting, as it is somewhat Shuttle as it should have been perhaps, but it is almost for sure for the Earth alone, at least for now.
In case I did not convey my intentions here, I am not looking for a two team sports match, where we say one thing is better than another, and call everything else loosers.
That seems to be an inborn human collective trait. It is useful on a sports field to satisfy such primal desires, but is not likely to be useful here.
So, to sum it up, I feel that a "Web of Worlds" is likely to occur, and is superior to simply trying to do a Martian activity. I believe it will not drain away from Martian activities but supplement it. It will also keep more of the Earth's population interested in space for various reasons.
I do still support a sort of "Mars Direct" to start Mars up, so have not abandoned those who think that way, but am very intested in Voyager Station, as it is a real plan, not simply the use of the word "Dome". Those machines are intened also eventually to be sent to various places in the solar system. I support that so, I am not entirely in the Blue Origins camp either.
I guess the above is a fair foundation, and it will be rather hard for Hunter minds to bundle it up and shut down it's potential, with the "Off Topic" maneuver.
Maybe I will spell check, maybe I won't. Some part is being lazy, another part is to point out that the eyes and hands are very important, not just the mouth and ear. People of the mouth and ear, have far too much power by using spelling as a method to close down other methods of thinking. To be appointed by the annointed as the best and brightest. To constrain others as servants, who do not have the same types of intellegences as the verbals do. It is an annoyance. However the internet is changing that, removing some of their powers. But yes I can be lazy. But I did bother to post here.
I would rather go to the gym next than to spell check.Live with it. For a little while, I may make an effort to clean things up later.
Done.
#1264 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Saving the Earth - the B612 Foundation » 2021-02-20 18:46:42
Hi GW -
Which is worst for a body of that size - to score a direct hit intact or to break up in the atmosphere and create an airburst effect?
Apophis passes close (at one level or another) just about every 7 years. At 300+ meter dimension, it is somewhat larger than a "city buster" and smaller than a "regional total destruction" body. It is not an "extinction event" body, but if it were to hit us, you really would not like the consequences! The 2029 pass is predicted to occur inside the Earth's synchronous orbit distance, at 38,000 km, center-to-center.
GW
#1265 Re: Not So Free Chat » Native Lakota Indians will Withdraw from UnitedStates » 2021-02-20 18:09:35
Follow the money - not the sentiment... Sound like the Lakota are fully plugged into the Mighty Dollar system.
The tribe, which traces its ancestry to the Native Americans that shared a fall harvest meal with the Pilgrims in 1621, gained federal recognition in 2007.
The Cape Cod-based tribe was granted more than 300 acres (1.2 square kilometers) of land in trust in 2015 by then-President Barack Obama, a move that carved out the federally protected land needed for the tribe to develop its planned $1 billion First Light casino, hotel and entertainment resort.Many tribes have lost land and rights since 1623 to even today. Some have lost there heritage when birth certifecates said white on them as did NH....
#1266 Re: Unmanned probes » Perseverance New 2020 Mars Rover based on MSL » 2021-02-19 18:18:30
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech … cords.html
The scientists are apparently intrigued by those rocks close to the rover wheels. Full of holes like a Swiss cheese. Could be indicative of life.
It's weird how this mission is so "life-friendly" unlike all previous missions. NASA have had 50 years to put life-finder tech on Mars and have signally failed to do so.
Excuse my paranoia but it would make sense for NASA to now provide "findings of life" evidence to the UN planetary protection mob who can then use it to lobby against human missions to Mars.
#1267 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Ancient relic points to a turning point in Earth's history 42,000 year » 2021-02-18 19:38:03
Indeed! This is one of the many areas where Mars colonisation will develop new fields of learning that can be applied to Earth's incalcuable benefit in due course.
#1268 Unmanned probes » Perseverance » 2021-02-18 18:58:34
- louis
- Replies: 14
I guess we ought to mark the moment guys!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech … TODAY.html
Even if we know this is a bit of a sideshow and we might be appalled by that NASA-brand picture quality!
#1269 Re: Not So Free Chat » Trump’s Lawyers Argue He Can't Be Impeached Because He Was Not Elected » 2021-02-17 19:00:50
How could that "effective populist" ever win a future Presidential election now we know an election can be stolen and the Supreme Court won't lift a finger, even when a case is filed by several States of the Union? The Supreme Court has totally abandoned the American people. It's probably the most egregious desertion in American history. There's absolutely no chance of a populist ever winning again. It's over. The only thing that will change this is a popular revolt. And of course that is the one thing that the current administration is totally focussed on preventing through exemplary punishments, savage laws, consitutional innovation and so on.
I'd love to think the American people have the spirit to overturn the tyranny but I doubt it. We are all such creatures of the media and the internet now. That is the one thing that could make a difference: the populist opposition in the USA need to build a totally separate media and social media. That is the only way out of the tyranny. It's Step One. Without that, nothing else will happen. But be under no illusions will use every method to prevent that happening.
SpaceNut,
If Democrats don't stop fixating on the past, which cannot be changed, no matter any belief to the contrary, there's a very high likelihood that a more effective populist, someone who isn't as benevolent as President Trump is, will win office next.
#1270 Re: Not So Free Chat » Dinosaurs » 2021-02-17 15:37:49
I agree GW that the asteroid threat is vastly underrated. We saw the damage that a relatively small object coming in could do over a vast area of Russia a few years back. It was a total fluke that no one was killed by flying glass or collapsing buildings.
Any thoughts on interstellar objects?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOum … asurements
Am I right in thinking they can travel much faster than solar system comets? Oumuamua's unusual shape - didn't that make it more difficult to detect.
Back in 2009, I traveled to Granada, Spain, to present a poster paper at an asteroid defense conference. I'm sorry to say that the state of asteroid defense has not changed very much since then. My latest assessment is located on my "exrocketman" site as the 30 August 2020 article titled Asteroid Threats.
For a cometary or otherwise-undiscovered asteroidal threat, warning time is short. The only possible defenses are impactors and nuclear explosives, properly used (and the movies did not get that correct). We still lack the rocket vehicles to do the mission. Nothing we have can get there quickly enough. Nor do we yet possess the right kind of spacecraft that can carry and dispense these weapons.
As for the proper applications of impactors and nuclear explosives, and the huge remaining uncertainties we still have for employing them, see the "exrocketman" article. It reference earlier articles I did on the subject, and related stuff. How you actually do this is not what most folks think. Especially with the nukes. There is NO blast/shock wave in a vacuum. Earthly human experience is the wrong guide.
Detection is getting better, but has a very long way to go, for asteroidal threats. We have found just about all the regional-destruction asteroid threats, but the city busters asteroid threats are still largely undiscovered. As for things dropping in from the outer solar system like comets, we have no real detection capability yet, except with only days or hours warning at best. Even some of the potential city buster asteroids don't get discovered until after they have unexpectedly passed by.
Only for threats with well-characterized orbits do we have years of warning time. Those would respond to either gravity tractors or small impactors, if we calculated that one would hit us. The warning times are measured in years, but only for those cases. Apophis won't hit us in 2029, but it will come very, very close. Uncomfortably close at a predicted 38,000 km, center-to-center. 2036? 2043? Who yet knows for sure? Sometimes the math lies to us. Because our models aren't good enough.
GW
#1271 Re: Not So Free Chat » Trump’s Lawyers Argue He Can't Be Impeached Because He Was Not Elected » 2021-02-16 18:15:12
You can bury a story through minimal reporting. That's what they did. The Wikipedia article confirms that's what happened. And in the UK the MSM went one step further in exonerating the young man and criticising the American authorities' treatment of him - though in reality he was treated with incredible leniency.
You do know that MSM, BING are Microsoft new feeds from a variety....A 20-year-old man received a sentence of 12 months and a day for grabbing a police officer’s gun It was covered by
https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/unrest … rallies/3/
https://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/ … ump-224562
https://www.newsbreak.com/nevada/las-ve … -las-vegas
#1272 Re: Not So Free Chat » Trump’s Lawyers Argue He Can't Be Impeached Because He Was Not Elected » 2021-02-16 04:56:01
It's amazing how the assassination attempt on Trump by a young British man was consigned to the memory hole by the MSM in the UK and USA.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Dona … y_incident
The young guy had been fired up by hate rhetoric in the media. But of course the MSM in the USA and the UK went to work to bury the incident and/or exonerate the would be perpetrator.
Two arrested on weapons charges near White House
wonder whom they were after in unity?step two
Here's how the 14th Amendment could be used to prevent Trump from running again
#1273 Re: Not So Free Chat » Trump’s Lawyers Argue He Can't Be Impeached Because He Was Not Elected » 2021-02-15 15:53:59
I'd love if you could move forward. You can't. You seem to assume politics or maybe real life can be resumed as before. They can't. Not if an elections can be stolen, if political thugs can roam the streets and attack opponents at will with no legal penalty, and if the might of the state can be harnessed to pursue political vendettas or protect bribe-takers. Everything is now changed. The private space programmes are definitely in peril. I strongly expect there will be action taken to slow them down, so China can catch up and then Mars can be assigned some sort of Antarctic-style treaty status.
SpaceNut / Louis / Others,
It's over guys. It's time to re-focus on living life. DC politics isn't real life. We elected the most ignorant and arrogant people from both ends of the political spectrum to represent our country, and now that that profound mistake has been made, there's no going back. Let's hope 2021 is better than 2020. Incidentally, Louis is correct about not bullying your own neighbors over your political beliefs. The election results no longer matter. What's done is done. It's time to move forward.
#1274 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Terra, Luna, and Ceres - Triangle Trade » 2021-02-14 20:33:32
There will be no serious space exploration programme, public or private, under the Biden administration. Beijing will tell them to close it down and they will.
#1275 Re: Not So Free Chat » To be hacked it seems that it does not matter » 2021-02-14 20:13:23
Just to make it clear: you are now a very big Banana Republic and China owns the bananas.
You don't seem to realise American democracy and greatness is at an end. Your election was just stolen. Your President took bribes from the CCP Chinese government via his son. It's all documented. You just don't want to believe it.