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#1251 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-12 13:22:23

Robert Zubrin sent out this e-mail to the Mars Society members:

Statement of Mars Society President Robert Zubrin on the Selection of Dr. Mike Griffin for NASA Administrator

Mike Griffin is a superb choice for NASA Administrator. I have known Mike for more than a decade. He is a real leader who is technically brilliant, highly creative, open minded to new ideas, well-experienced, and deeply committed for many years to the success of the American space program - emphatically including the new vision of reaching for human exploration of the Moon and Mars.

The Bush administration is to be commended for this inspired
selection. There is literally no one better qualified to lead the new space initiative than Mike Griffin. For the job of 11th NASA Administrator, Mike is the right man, in the right place, at the right time. As President of the Mars Society, I offer him our full support.

#1252 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-11 17:25:29

http://www.spacepolitics.com/archives/000465.html]Fred Gregory

On Griffin's nomination, I may need to admit that George Bush sometimes gets it right!   tongue  big_smile

#1253 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-11 17:14:31

Cindy, he was temporary and if I recall correctly he stated fairly openly he did NOT want the permanent position.

#1254 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-11 16:53:57

On the ISS:

Equally important is the delay in pursuing the President's vision. Respecting present budget constraints, we return to the moon in 2020, thus accomplishing in 16 years what it required eight years to achieve in the 1960s. This is not because the task is so much more difficult, or because we are today so much less capable than our predecessors, but because we do not actually begin work on the task until 2011. I do not need to point out to this body the political pitfalls endemic to such a plan.

I, and others, have elsewhere advocated that the shuttle should be returned to flight and the ISS brought to completion, if only because the program's two-decade advocacy by the United States and commitment to its international partners should not be cavalierly abandoned. But, if there is no additional money to be allocated to space exploration, this position becomes increasingly difficult to justify. It is worth asking whether our international partners might judge the issue similarly.

Ask our partners to abandon ISS by mutual agreement, perhaps with an offer to bring them with us to the Moon and Mars?

IIRC, I was calling for exactly that exactly one year ago.  :;):

#1255 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-11 16:45:32

Another good http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.htm … 1]SpaceRef link on Griffin.

# NASA should initiate development of a heavy lift launch vehicle having a payload capacity of at least 100 metric tons to low Earth orbit (LEO). Such a vehicle is the single most important physical asset enabling human exploration of the solar system. The use of shuttle-derived systems offers what is quite likely to be the most costeffective near-term approach.

# Much cargo (including humans) does not need to be launched in very large packages. We desperately need much more cost effective Earth-to-LEO transportation for payloads in the size range from a few thousand to a few tens of thousands of pounds. In my judgment, this is our most pressing need, for it controls a major portion of the cost of everything else that we do in space. Yet, no active U.S. government program of which I am aware has this as its goal. Again, shuttle-derived systems, particularly emphasizing use of the RSRB, may offer a useful approach.

# New propulsion systems are unnecessary. We can certainly return to the moon or go to Mars using existing chemical propulsion systems. Looking ahead, development of nuclear propulsion should be re-initiated to allow more efficient travel beyond cislunar space, but such systems are not altogether new. The NERVA (nuclear engine for rocket vehicle applications) program produced a working nuclear upperstage engine and demonstrated excellent performance in extensive ground tests, before regrettably being cancelled in 1973.

# Compact space qualified nuclear power systems are required for extended human presence on the Moon and Mars.

# The efficient establishment of permanent human bases on the Moon, Mars, and certain asteroids requires the use of in situ resources to minimize the amount of material and equipment which must be brought from Earth. The technology for such exploitation has yet to be fully developed, though promising experiments have been conducted.

# Space and planetary surface habitat and suit technology is at present insufficient for the needs of an extended program of human space exploration. Improvements in suit technology are of the highest priority.

See the bold section. Can you say 5 segment RSRB + RL-60?

smile



Edited By BWhite on 1110581284

#1256 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-11 16:39:05

On the HLLV front, Griffin said this:

On the engineering side, the first order of business is largely to restore capabilities that we once had, and then to make them more reliable and cost effective.It may not be impossible to consider returning to the moon, or going to Mars, without a robust heavy-lift launch capability, but it is certainly silly. Our last Saturn V was launched thirty years ago, and while I do not necessarily advocate resurrecting an outdated design, this is the class of capability which is needed for the human space flight enterprise.

#1257 Re: Human missions » Griffin nominated for NASA post - SpaceRef link to testimony » 2005-03-11 16:29:59

A sample of Griffins]http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=10683]Griffin's testimony to Congress, via SpaceRef.

I like his "why" answers, which focus on human expansion into the solar system, not merely presence. Rock collectors are present, then leave. Expansion requires settlement.

Anyway, a quote:

Consider also that Great Britain's influence, achieved through its mastery of the oceans, was not restricted merely to affairs in the colonies, the new lands. By virtue of its nautical superiority, Britain wielded a dominant influence in the Old World as well, an influence hugely out of proportion to its size and other resources.

Can America, through its mastery of human space flight, have a similar influence on the cultures and societies of the future, those yet to evolve in the solar system as well as those here on Earth? I think so, and I think our descendants will consider it to have been worth twenty cents per day.



Edited By BWhite on 1110580360

#1259 Re: Interplanetary transportation » A new HLLV essay » 2005-03-11 13:45:59

"WHY?"  matters to a very great degree here.


If 6 lunar missions between 2020 and 2035 fulfill the "vision" of the VSE then an L1 station is not necessary and is an un-needed expense.

But if we only use expendable landers then we are no closer to a substantial and sustained presence.

Even if we have fancy viewgraphs for what we will do in 2040 or 2050.

(Add: This should drive the EELV & HLLV decision. If we want a less expensive skimpy program, okay go EELV, but understand what we are buying may not be what enthuses the public, who elect the politicians, who write the checks.)

= = =

With a depot at L1 with stockpiles of lunar LOX and Terran methane, re-useable landers can land anywhere on the Moon at any time. As often as crew can fly from Earth to L1.



Edited By BWhite on 1110570642

#1260 Re: Interplanetary transportation » A new HLLV essay » 2005-03-11 13:35:17

My position on no manned Lunar space station stands though.

Okay, design the L1 Gateway to be capable of periods of vacancy. Is that possible?

Its more of a transfer station designed to be as remotely self-sufficient as possible. The goal is to find a place to park lunar landers when not in use.

= = =

But again, it all depends on how full we intend the schedule to be.

One lunar mission in 2019, another in 2022 and #3 in 2027?

Yup. I then agree with you, L1 and re-useable landers would be a waste of money. And also, our being space advocates would be a waste of time. tongue

#1261 Re: Interplanetary transportation » A new HLLV essay » 2005-03-11 13:30:13

Lunar LOX? Absolutely essential!

However, shovel regolith into a closed chamber and heat with a passive solar furnace and O2 is extracted. Pyrolysis is simple and requires little expensive or massive equipment. Who cares if it is inefficient from a chemists point of view. Its darn cheap from an accountant's point of view.

Use parabolic inflatable/gossamer mylar mirrors plus pumps and compressors. A few hundred thousand dollars worth of equipment. Maybe a million or two, at most.

Lunar H2 or methane?

There just won't be any without massive infrastructure. Massive infrastructure cannot be built without large amounts of mass sent from Earth. As like Taylor Dinerman wrote, sending giant Catepillar trenchers and bulldozers may well need an HLLV.

So, we need to find a way to ship methane or LH2 to L1 (or LEO?) cheaply and efficiently. An HLLV could throw a decent supply of methane to L1 in a single throw. Add a rigid superstructure of trusses around your hab and use the methane tanks as a rad shield.

Suppose we assigned a Proton or a 5 segment SRB + RL-60 upper stage to deliver methane to L1. What would be the net price per pound?

Whatever that price is, how will you ever extract lunar LH2 or LMe for less than that price, without a truly massive upfront infrastructure investment?

Factoring in upfront costs of capital, extracting lunar LOX and bringing methane from Earth will be the most efficient route for a long time to come.

= OR =

We can declare that space exploration is essentially ON HOLD until we deploy honest-to-God RLVs. Except for a handful of flags and footprints stunts allowing us to pretend we are exploring space.

Because going to the Moon with EELVs using architecture we know is too flimsy to accomplish anything permanent is merely an Emperor's New Clothes type of undertaking.

AND - - as of today, no one is funding the R&D needed to build honest-to-God RLVs.

#1262 Re: Interplanetary transportation » A new HLLV essay » 2005-03-11 11:51:00

As for Moon only architecture, I believe starting with a re-useable lander that can be based at an L1 station will best support permanent presence.

An FGB-2 equivalent plus Bigelow inflatable plus docking ports and solar panels is all we need for an L1 outpost and then CEV need only be capable of reaching L1.

= = =

Edit: Lunar LOX is easy to extract and "should be" part of the architecture from the very beginning. Lunar water is unproven, difficult to extract and requires massive power to crack into H2. Postpone that until later.

If we carry LH2 or methane and use lunar oxygen from the very beginning, launch mass can be limited to a degree.



Edited By BWhite on 1110563623

#1263 Re: Interplanetary transportation » A new HLLV essay » 2005-03-11 10:47:38

Mister Griffin is correct, that the EELV aproach most likly would most likly not be as efficent as SDV or Clean Sheet heavy lifters, and I am not arguing that. The EELV aproach isn't really competitive in this way...

...what I am saying, however, is that:
1) There is a good chance SDV launch costs could bankrupt NASA due to massive manpower requirements
2) EELV+ costs are basically a known quantity, as vehicles similar to the ones needed are flight tested
3) As nice as clean sheet would be, its not happening right now if NASA intends to get to the Moon on time

Given the above, I can't support SDV until there are credible estimates for its cost. This being the case, EELV will be the best option. We will need to use an upgraded EELV anyway to launch the crew on, unless you intend to put people on top of the SDV.

It strikes me that the VSE is falling "in between" EELV and SDV in terms of whether we "need" 100MT boosters. EELV is just too small to support permanent presence on the Moon and SDV may be just too big (& expensive) to fit NASA's budget and there does not appear to be a "just right" solution.

EELV may be better if the medium term goal (15-25 years) is to go slowly and postpone permanent presence for several decades while SDV may be necessary if the 15-25 year goal is to achieve and maintain a substantial presence on the Moon.

And, if Mars is to be anything more than "after the Moon, whenever. . ." EELV will plainly be insufficient.

= = =

Heh!

It always comes back to "why" we are going. At least IMHO.



Edited By BWhite on 1110563332

#1264 Re: Not So Free Chat » A Red & Blue get together? - Bankruptcy bill is bad law » 2005-03-11 09:15:08

Republicans and Democrats, repeat after me: "My Party doesn't care about me. Tricksy, false. They stole it from us, the thieves."

Harlem Globetrotters and Washington Generals?

#1265 Re: Not So Free Chat » A Red & Blue get together? - Bankruptcy bill is bad law » 2005-03-10 16:43:26

This is not a Democrat v GOP issue, its conected pols versus ordinary people.

Booyah, we have a winner!  big_smile

Republicans and Democrats, repeat after me: "My Party doesn't care about me. Tricksy, false. They stole it from us, the thieves."

I'm in a loopy, sleep-deprived and mildly irate mood, as you probably guessed. While I don't much care for this law I find myself unable to get really worked up over it. Partly because I just recited the above mantra, and partly because we already have so many unjust laws that screw the little guy that one more on the yoke just doesn't matter. <shrug>

Yeah, well, whatever. . .

But the thought of dogs and cats doing, well - - you know.

tongue


Regardless of the importance of the bill, some of the cross-dressing comments at these blogs are pretty funny.

#1266 Re: Not So Free Chat » A Red & Blue get together? - Bankruptcy bill is bad law » 2005-03-10 15:16:08

Today I was very pleasantly surprised to see bi-partisan blog opposition to the pending bankruptcy bill.

From the Right:

http://redstate.org/story/2005/3/10/105835/413]RedState

http://instapundit.com/archives/021685.php]Instapundit

And there seem to be others.

From the Left:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/3/10 … /641]Daily Kos - - the 900 pound gorilla of leftie blogs.  :;):

As a lawyer I can tell you the bankrucpty bill is terrible, atrocious, unjust and just plain dumb. I am pleased to see there are some red-voters who agree.

This is not a Democrat v GOP issue, its conected pols versus ordinary people.

#1268 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri III - The next round. » 2005-03-09 10:21:38

Global unification will rally around the idea that law must be the same for all people, regardless of nationality.

Even the Italian foreign minister (a vocal pro-US voice) is talking about the need to avoid subservience.

#1269 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri III - The next round. » 2005-03-09 09:39:58

Actually, Bush may end up doing more good in ways he never intended.  He may serve as that hypothetical alien invasion fleet getting the rest of the world to unify and work for the common good.  :;):

=  =  =

Or maybe Bush does consciously intend to play act the wild 12 year old waving a loaded 45 caliber in order to scare the world straight. You know, that might actually work for the common good of humanity even if the US ends up with far less global influence, far sooner, because the rest of the world is scared shitless and stops all their petty quarrels.

Okay, I feel better, now.   big_smile

Thanks!



Edited By BWhite on 1110383518

#1270 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri III - The next round. » 2005-03-09 09:15:49

Globally, we are 5% of the human population and we come from a tradition of one person = one vote.  Uh oh. We gotta  problem right there.

Do we though? Sure, we all like to think so but even the illusion is a recent development. Perhaps the biggest danger in this "spreading democracy" thing we've got going is that the United States of America was never intended to be a democracy itself in the proper sense of the word. We've gotten a little too caught up in the little lies we've told ourselves over the years. Equality, "right" to vote and all that nonsense.

Here maybe is where we disagree. Perhaps I actually believed the stuff they taught us in junior high civics class about the meaning of America :;):

When John Ashcroift says our rights flow solely from the Constitution of 1787 and therefore do not apply to other people in the rest of the world he blaphemes Thomas Jefferson and the opening lines of the Declaration of Independence which teaches that governments exist to protect pre-existing rights granted to all people simply by virtue of being human.

He worships a lesser deity (the Constitution) and neglects a higher deity (the Declaration of Independence) which asserts the existence of rights which apply to all humans, everywhere.

#1271 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri III - The next round. » 2005-03-09 09:04:28

Actually, much of my objection to our current foreign policy is my belief that our current strategies will seriously diminish our ability to influence future events.

In other words, Bush is popping the bubble of American supremacy far faster than George Soros dared hope and therefore our ability to Ameri-form global culture before our supremacy evaporates is thereby lessened.

How is this happening? By using hammers on screws and saying we have no need of screwdrivers.

#1272 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri III - The next round. » 2005-03-09 08:58:01

We use a disproportionate share of global resources and in the future we can continue to do so only through military might. Other then by force of arms, can we sustain consuming more wealth than India and China which together are almost ten times our size in population? Other then by force of arms, can we sustain consuming more wealth than India and China which together are almost ten times our size in population? But he who lives by the sword. . .

Yes, if we structure our activities properly. Nuclear power, hybrid/hydrogen/ethanol vehicles. We actually have plenty of oil, metals, food, everything we need right here, it's just a matter of utilization and planning. We could be totally self-sufficient within 10-15 years if we so choose. Keep a hand in the MidEast oil situation just to have some influence but let the ChiComs have that headache for awhile. We have what we need, anything else we can lock up is a bargaining chip against the other guys.

Point being, we don't need to step aside for anyone and we don't owe anyone anything. Peaceful coexistence does not entail kneeling.

Or put another way, the rise of China need not mean the fall of America. The fortunes of another are as much an opportunity for us as a threat.

That said, sometimes you still need swords. Keep it sharp and practice regularly.

Cobra, I agree wih you on ALL the above points.

Why you cannot see that our current foreign policy is drunk on the Kool-Aid of Wilsonian demi-god-ery (Bush believes himself a demi-god and is a demogouge) eludes me.

We must move beyond the oil economy and let the Chinese worry about those wacky Arab nut-jobs. Move to hydrogen and in a few decades hammer the Chinese over carbon dioxide emissions.

Swords? Yep, we need swords. Better not to use them, however. Again, we have the world's finest military, perhaps the best hammer ever invented by mankind. And GWB is determined to pound every screw he sees.  :;):

= = =

Hypocrisy is bipartisan. I agree. Therefore, balance of power in government is to be desired.

Give the Democrats one branch of government and my need to whine falls substantially. As it is GOP hypocrisy is running loose, unchecked.  tongue

#1273 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri III - The next round. » 2005-03-09 08:11:53

Here is a time bomb waiting to explode.

Increasingly, credit card data processing is being moved to India. Suppose we (America) got into a nasty geopolitical fight with India and to "pay us back" the Indians give our credit card data to mafia types who simultaneously launch 20 million identity theft attacks.

Twenty million Americans suddenly find thousands of dollars billed to their credit cards for Chinese run porn web sites and ALL the records are in India, and have been scrambled.

#1274 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri III - The next round. » 2005-03-09 08:05:23

There is much to love about America and therefore it pains me when our most sacred words are whored by the hypocritical Right to advance their own agenda, an agenda I view as essentially anti-American, even if wrapped in a flag. Same with the evangelical types using the words and images of Jesus to advance their own power worship and wealth worship agendas.

Globally, we are 5% of the human population and we come from a tradition of one person = one vote.  Uh oh. We gotta  problem right there.

We use a disproportionate share of global resources and in the future we can continue to do so only through military might. Other then by force of arms, can we sustain consuming more wealth than India and China which together are almost ten times our size in population? But he who lives by the sword. . .

Productivity? Last year Ford and GM made two thirds of their profits from the Ford Motor Credit and GMAC division - - selling insurance and auto loans rather than cars. Are American bankers and insurance agents inherently better at banking and insurance than Indians?

The era nation-state is ending. Why? Citibank and Chase will make more money if banking and finance law are uniform throughout the world. Uniform banking and finance laws will level the barriers that exist between nations-states as will a global currency. It may take a century or more but it will happen.

If we spread truly American values around the world, which includes one person = one vote, we will not be supported in our position of supremacy. We will be outvoted. If we encourage the global spread of one person = one vote we will lose our position of supremacy yet perhaps create a world we can all live in together peacefully.

If we discourage the spread of one person = one vote and continue to assert a soveriegn veto over international affairs - -  such as the right of pre-emptive war possessed only by the US - -  then

(a) the remaining 95% of the world's population will pull us down, perhaps violently or

(b) we shall become as tyrants and betray that which made us great to begin with.

#1275 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri III - The next round. » 2005-03-08 18:06:17

So is ceaseless self-disparagement, IMO.

When I have I ever disparaged myself? I merely predict bad consequences will flow from foolish decisions made by my fellow countrymen.

And there have been a great many of those, recently.  big_smile



Edited By BWhite on 1110326807

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