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Now that President Bush has committed the U.S. to sending a manned mission to Mars, now is the time for we Manned Mars Mission advocates to step up and push for the Mars Direct Program.
Mars Direct can be used for long duration lunar missions as well. Thus fullfilling another of the Presidents goals.
Its time for everyone to buy a copy of Zubrins "Case For Mars" book and send a copy to the President, Vice President, key Congressmen, and Senators, members of the media, et al.
The paperback version will do.
I'm sending my first copy to either the President or his wife.
I've generally assumed that the first few Manned Mars Missions would end up closely following Dr. Robert Zubrins Mars Direct plan one way or another.
With a crew of four, at most six on those missions.
I don't think with such a small crew and limited supplies and equipment that you could be expected to do any really invasive surgery during the mission. How many trained people would it take to do surgery?
I would say three at least.
And unless your trained surgeon is cross trained in numerous other scientific or engineering disciplines, he/she is likely to be pure deadweight on the mission if no medical emergencies arise.
For that matter, I doubt any signficant dental problems could be treated during a mission. I suspect that all astronauts departing on a manned mission to Mars will have their teeth very thoroughly cleaned and any problems taken care of before hand.
A crewmember can probably be trained to do routine cleanings and checkups during the mission, but any serious tooth problems would probably have to be handled by extraction.
Seriously though, do you really expect early manned Mars missions to be anywhere nearly equipped to do an appendectomy or other surgery? Even IF a fully trained surgeon was a member of the crew.
Thank goodness I got my log in fixed. It took forever seemingly.
Astronauts chosen for a manned Mars mission will probably be away from Earth at least 2 1/2 years.
It occurred to me that it will probably be necessary to surgically remove the appendixes and gall bladders of astronauts prior to the mission even if healthy.
Because as far as I know, even a perfectly healthy appendix can go bad in less that a year or so. And gall bladders are just one more thing waiting to go wrong. With painfull gall stones.
Tonsils might have to be removed although thats less common these days.
Kidney stones could develop and of course, a healthy kidney should never be removed so astronauts would have to make sure they drank plenty of water and watched their diets.
But do you agree that the appendix and a few other potentially problematic but unnecessary body parts might have to be removed prior to leaving Earth just as a precaution?
I doubt even the most lavishly equipped early Mars Missions would have the facilities for major surgery.
Yes, President Bush has been a good President. Even before the war on terror began
This kind of legislation would kill the space program. I haven't read the whole thread, but insisting on "reusability" for each mission will mire every program in the kind of development hell that is called the space shuttle.
Just what the hell is the point of reusability? For Mars, at best you are only going every 26 months at most. Just bolt together the simpliest stuff you can get by with an go.
Callisto orbits OUTSIDE of Jupiters radiation belts. Radiation on Callisto is minimal (something like 1/100th of a REM per day).
Why do you think I suggested Callisto for a base for telerobotic exploration in the first place?
Ganemede isn't too bad at around 8 REMs a day. But probably not the place you would hang around for weeks at a time.
I could be wrong with these figures, it might be REMS per hour of exposure. But even then, Callisto doesn't get enough to make a difference.
Next question.
How adaptable are Mars Direct mission concepts for longer range missions? Such as a manned mission to Jupiter with a landing on Callisto.
Like launching a nuclear powered Earth Return Vehicle to land on Callisto and load up on fuel (hydrogen from the ice probably) for use for the return trip.
I envision a 12 man crew being sent on the 2 year or so journey to Jupiter in a module roughly the size of two of the Skylab stations.
The ERV that goes to Callisto first would actually be only a propulsion stage. It would link up with the large hab module for the return trip.
Of course, the crew would explore Callisto and use telerobotics and sample returns to explore the other major moons, Jupiters atmosphere, and ring system.
*My candidate in the Soviet category of unsung space heroes [or, in this case, HEROINE] goes to Valentina Tereshkova; first woman in space, Vostok 6, circa 1963. Let's name a rocket after her! "You go, girl!"
I can't disagree with that. A lot of people think Sally Ride was the first woman in space, poor Valentina Tereshkova seems to have fallen by the wayside. So I'll vote for the Tereshkova. The unsung hero shall sing to the stars!
I'd be willing to settle on something like "Odin" or "Thor," something related to the Vikings (in honor of the unmanned probe that may have discovered life on Mars.) But the name of the rocket is not as important as its function: getting large payloads to orbit or smaller ones to this new world we plan on settling and exploring.
I think you've been outvoted on the choice of names for your rocket.
Anyways, I went back and read your first message and saw that you wanted to put a nuclear thermal rocket at the top of the stack. Would something like that cause political problems? It seems the better something is the more political problems it creates.
I think if we want to colonize Mars nuclear propulsion will be an absolute must to cut down the travel times. Not only will short travel times be better for the passengers psychologically, but it you wouldn't have to take along so much mass with you. Two months worth of food and water weighs a lot less than seven months worth. Of course, I'm thinking of nuclear pulse propulsion, I'm not very familiar with nuclear thermal rockets.
Valentina is seldom mentioned because she wasn't really a true cosmonaut per se. She was an amateur parachutist who was chosen because she was....well, a women parchutist.
The early Soviet vehicles could not land safely with a cosmonaut so the Cosmonauts had to bail out.
And reports were that she spent the whole time in orbit practically hysterical.
Hows this for a lobbying effort for Mars Direct.
Why not have members of the Mars Society (I don't know how many members there are) each mail a copy of Zubrins "The Case For Mars" (along with a brief letter asking for Congressional support) to their Congressman and Senators. Plus a dozen or so key people in the Executive Branch (President, Vice President and et cetera).
Each person in the Mars Society can probably afford a couple of copies of "The Case For Mars".
Alot of them would be discarded. Alot would be of little notice. But some Congressman WOULD read them. Some congressional aids would read them.
And the simultaneous arrival of 5,500 copies of the same book all arriving in Congressional offices would definitely get peoples attention and bring alot of attention to Dr. Zubrins plan.
Why not support passing a law that offers the first corporation or individual that successfully puts a manned crew on Mars (a minimum of 3 NASA astronauts) on the surface of Mars for a minimum of 100 days and safely returns them to Earth a grand payout of 10 billion dollars?
If they can do it for 7 billion dollarsm they'll rake in 3 billion dollars in raw profit.
If they go over 10 billion, they won't get any extra though they could still make money selling the technology to the government.
Dr. Zubrin has estimated that you could get a successfull mission to Mars for only 3 billion to 5 billion dollars if done by a private corporation.
If you think 10 billion is too little, how about 15 billion?
In his book, "The Case For Mars", Dr. Zubrin explained clearly that private industry could probably launch a manned Mars mission for only 3 to 5 billion.
As Dr. Zubrin said, in the real world, you can buy a lot with a billion dollars.
I wonder if the government offered 10 billion dollars ( with whatever money they didn't use being pure profit) to the first company to put a manned team on Mars if a consortium of Lockheed/Martin, Boeing, and few other large aerospace companies might be willing to give it a shot?
How many mission plans can you name?
1) Mars Direct-Conjunction-two launches per mission
2) Mars Semi-Direct-Conjunction-three launches per mission
3) Mars Hybrid-Direct-Conjunction-three launches
4) NASA Baseline Plan-Conjunction-six launches
5) Athena-Dr. Zubrins Mars Precursor Flyby mission
6) NASA 90 Day Plan-Opposition-number of launches unknown but requires 800 tons leaving LEO.
7) The Case For Mars-Conjunction-number of launches unknown but requires 1600 tons leaving LEO-(note,this is basically a Mars Cycler for the first mission design)
8) Livermore Laboratorys-"Great Exploration"-Conjunction-one or two launches per mission.
9) NASA Split/Sprint Mission-Opposition-basically the 90 Day study architecture splint into separate cargo and manned missions.
10) Mars 2000-Conjunction?-requires 17 launches per mission.
11) Mars Mission One Crew Manual Architecture-Opposition-requires and ungodly two dozen or more launches.
12) Mars PhD. (Phobos/Deimos) Mission-Opposition-six launches per mission.
13) Gas Core Fission Propelled Mars Mission (late 1970s)-Opposition-large number of launches.
14) Nuclear Electric-Three Ship Mission-Opposition-18 launches per completed mission.
15) NASA Mission Concept (Presidential Commission, 1969)-Opposition.-Shuttle, Space Station Core Mission Module, Nuclear Transfer stage, Mars Excursion Module)
Can anyone think of any other proposed Mars Mission architectures?
Of course it would be easiest to just send all male or all female crews initially.
I think it would be very unstable to the group dynamic to have a crew of four and have three men and one woman (or vice versa) over the two and a half years of the mission.
Or a six man crew with the four men and two women (and vice versa).
At any rate, I would insist that EVERYONE be prepared to the max with birth control just in case something did develop during an extended mission. And if married couples were sent I would want precautions redoubled.
When a Manned Mars Mission is launched, it WILL have alot in common with Mars Direct.
Remember, that the current NASA Baseline Plan is basic Mars Semi-Direct but substituting the Magnum booster for the Ares and thus requiring six launches instead of three for each mission.
In "The Case For Mars" Dr. Zubrin makes it clear that his trajectories outbound to Mars involve the ease of turning it into a "free return" trajectory to simply whip past Mars and then be on the way back to Earth.
Of course it would still take nine months or so.
He has several other "alternate mission profiles" primarily involving possible Hab or ERV failures enroute.
As for the disposal of a dead crewmember. At least while in space, I think that the dead crewman would be strapped to the exterior of the hab or ERV and remain their until atmospheric entry. The vacuum of space would preserve the corpse personally for burial in Arlington National Cemetary.
I do think that Mars crewmembers will have to undergo some elective surgery before hand to reduce the chance of severe medical problems enroute.
For example, removal of appendixes and gall bladders. As well as any dental surgery to correct ANY likelihood of dental problems or pain enroute.
And I believe that any female crewmembers should be using birthcontrol pills and a backup birthcontrol method.
That should be mandatory.
All it will take is one U.S President really committed to the space program or one who is really desperate for a long term legacy ala JFK.
And then, we can get to Mars within 9 years of a go order.
Ok Rob, I'll concede your points about the merits of the Energyia, but I won't concede them about the inadvisability of international cooperation.
I will also state this as a fact I believe in very strongly "The American peoples support for a Manned Mars Program will decline as the amount of international cooperation rises". Americans have little love of international efforts.
Bringing in the Russians was supposed to reduce ISS costs but they actually increased as NASA had to hold up the staggering Russians.
And without strong American public support, there will be no manned Mars program. Case closed.
Besides, why bother with international missions? There isn't one piece of hardware or technology that is needed for a manned Mars program that can't be built by the United States and no other nation has the range of experience the U.S. has in manned space operations.
Sure the Russians stayed up in Mir for over a year, but boring holes through the sky has little relevance to a manned Mars mission.
While Energia might have been certified for manned spaceflight by the Russians, it hasn't by NASA and has never launched a manned flight even to LEO.
Therefore, I think NASA would be more than a little reluctant to launch a manned Mars mission on it.
Given the utter mess the ISS has been, I doubt NASA will be overly interested in ANY future manned space mission that utilizes international cooperation.
I think the exploration of Venus will go something like this:
1) Large unmanned probes will land and take soil samples. Using a nuclear reactor to heat carbon dioxide as propellant.
The probes will be capable of "jumping" using short bursts from its reactor powered engine. traveling to other locations several hundred meters away before returning to Earth.
2) When fusion propelled engines come into use, I can see properly shield manned missions will be able to orbit the planet at length and use advanced rovers telerobotically to explore.
3) Finally, humans will land on Venus. But not before powered exoskeletons are developed to carry the hundreds of pounds of life support equipment necessary to keep a human alive under such conditions.
Such exoskeletons would allow for much higher detailed exploration.
Anyway, thats my opinion.
What do you consider the possibility of a manned mission using Mars Direct might end disastrously?
Its been estimated that each Space Shuttle launch has around 1 in 100 chance of disaster.
I think the first Mars Direct mission should be expected to be at least 5 times more dangerous than a space shuttle launch.
On the order of one in twenty. That seems like a reasonable level of risk for the first mission.
Naturally, subsequent mission risk would decline because of the buildup of hardware on the Mars surface (mainly Habitation modules) on the Mars surface.
I'd like to interject a further note as to why reviving the Saturn V IS NOT inconceivable.
The Saturn V is man rated. Ares, Shuttle-C, Magnum and Energyia ARE NOT. I have serious doubts that the U.S. would ever willingly launch a manned crew on a launch vehicle that wasn't man rated.
Of course, you say, just launch a shuttle with a crew and rendevous in orbit. Really, a one hundred million dollar shuttle flight for each Manned Mars mission just for taxi duty?
A hundred million here and there adds up quickly.
Finally, NASA shuttle managers might well say, "if we're launching a shuttle anyway, why not just launch the Mars mission with four or five shuttle launches and not bother with an HLLV?
So you see the appeal of a revived Saturn V.
While the Energia is probably the best option cost wise. I still can't see Congress funding a U.S. Mars program boosted on Russian built rockets.
The U.S. Navy would be in better shape today if the U.S. bought navalized SU-27 Flankers for their carriers than F/A-18 Hornets but it will never happen.
I see a Saturn V derived vehicle being used for.......
1) Two launches a every other year for Mars Direct.
2) Two launches a year for a long duration manned lunar program.
3) An indeterminate number of launches (probably two to four) for missions to Near Earth Asteroids using Mars Direct Habs and ERVs.
If Saturn Vs were available, there would be plenty of ways to use them
The information about the uprated F-1s capable of 1.8 million pounds of thrust comes straight from "America At The Threshold" by the Synthesis Group. A group of space experts who produced the intergovernmental publication after President Bush #41s ill fated Space Exploration Initiative was launched.
The booklet is available from used book sources online such as ABE Books.
One of the biggest arguments for a manned mission is simply this..........a single Manned Mission to Mars will accomplish more than 100 unmanned missions.
How much soil or rock is projected to be returned by the proposed sample return mission, ONE or TWO kilograms. A manned mission could be expected to return A HUNDRED or more kilograms from dozens of carefully selected sites. Not to mention all the work done by the two scientists on site.
In one fell swoop, you would get more scientific return from Mars than 50 years of unmanned missions.