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The late heavy bombardment took place 4.1 to 3.8 billion years ago, about the same time, and would have substantially aggravated solar atmospheric loss mechanisms, as well as killing any advanced life on the planet. So unless advanced life managed to evolve in the narrow window between 4.7billion and 4.1 billion years ago, it is difficult to see how it could have developed any later. .
Actually, recent evidence suggests that Mars is a planetary embryo that never accreted anything past that state, thus never having undergone the late heavy bombardment like Earth did, hence its small size compared to what would be expected given its distance from the Sun. However, I do agree that the timescale seems fairly implausible for human-like evolution given that it took ~3.3-3.5 billion years from the origin of life on Earth for the Cambrian explosion to happen, and another 541.8 million years after that for humans to evolve. That being said, I agree that bacteria and other sorts of Martian prokaryotes could evolve similar to their Terran equivalents, and maybe even still be around.
Given NASA's progress towards manned landings the first Mars base may turn out to be Chinese, Russian or even Indian.
Alternatively It may belong to whichever state decides to cough up Musk's transport charges, or no state if privately funded.
I still think it would be American-based if it's SpaceX, given how Musk has constantly praised the US, etc.
Responding to louis:
1) If we do have an all-digital currency (which I can get behind), I don't see the need for ATMs, especially with the issues SpaceNut brings up.
2) Perhaps, but then again this might be at odds with your point at #4, about Mars not being a glorified US base, although realistically it is true that Mars would likely have closer ties to the US than most other Earth countries. In any case I'd think transaction fees would be at the discretion of the card issuers.
3)Agreed.
4)I agree, once any particular expedience in using the US Dollar fades off.
5)Agreed.
It's somewhat obvious that eventually Mars will have to have its own currency, even without "nationalistic"/cultural concerns, since being in an Optimal Currency Area with any particular country on Earth would imply having some level of economic integration with that country that Mars is unlikely to have.
I was wondering when "eventually" was. Assuming that Mars does start out with using the United States Dollar, at what point would it be advantageous to switch to its own currency, pegged to USD or otherwise? I'll play economist here and assert that Mars ought to switch to its own currency when the benefits outweigh the costs. Having an independent currency does have costs. Many credit (and I would assume debit, but don't quote me on that) cards charge a foreign transaction fee of around 3% for transactions outside of the country of issue (https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/credit- … ifference/). Since Mars (probably) wouldn't be a part of any Terran country, and it would likely be a while before there are Mars-issued credit cards, this would be an invariant part of the financial world on Mars regardless of what currency is used. However, a currency conversion fee, which is charged by the merchant according to a rate set by the card issuer, does depend on what currency is used. Fee rates tend to be ~9-15% (https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card … d-1267.php), which would be costs for an American going to a non-USD using Mars that wouldn't apply for a USD-using Mars. However, both these fees would still apply for non-Americans, so currency conversion costs will always be around 12-18% for non-Americans.
Assuming a Martian colony where everybody comes from a Terran country (i.e., there are no native Martians) and given fraction a of Martians of American origin, the total currency conversion costs for a USD-using Mars would range from .03a+(1-a)*.12 to .03a+(1-a)*.18. For a non-USD using Mars they would range from .12 to .18 for everyone. Solving only these equations would imply that keeping the USD would reduce total conversion costs for any nonzero amount of Americans. But while the USD seems the natural choice as the original currency, one could use what I just did to argue for adopting any given currency on Earth, and if we want to minimize currency conversion costs and do nothing else all of them. While Mars might indeed have a law decreeing that anything used to pay for something is legal tender if both parties agree to it, having a monetary free-for-all for official purposes would produce pecuniary pandemonium.
So when IS the right time to introduce a new currency? If we introduce "native Martians", which includes anybody with a Martian bank account or card such as "stayers", currency conversion costs become increasingly irrelevant. To have a bank account one needs a bank or other comparable institution. I doubt the very first missions would be too preoccupied with finance or the finer points of monetary policy, but I'd say meaningful domestic banking would appear when the settlement has a population of around 20-30, or within 3-4 missions, or 1-2 years of the first settlement. After the bank is established most people would likely join it immediately, so currency conversion costs would dramatically drop.
As for the benefits of a new currency, Mars wouldn't have to depend on the United States Federal Reserve to decide its monetary policy, so symbolic independence would be good, as would economic independence given that Martian economic goals and those of the US would very likely diverge considerably (Mars might be more export-dependent than the US, for example). So I'd say that a new currency would probably be adopted within the first 5 years of settlement once a sufficient financial infrastructure is in place.
While I agree that it might provide a windfall for the first mission, I doubt it would do much afterwards, after the "firsts" have already been done. That being said, hopefully the "firsts" money will last until something more sustainable afterwards.
I do agree with Oldfart1939 that the OST might have to be significantly amended, if not outright abrogated, in order for meaningful settlement and colonization to occur (at least the Moon Treaty was never effectively ratified). In any case SpaceX might have to relocate to an offshore country for legal purposes if the US Government obstructs it.
Of course the Earth is flat, otherwise it would roll right off the turtle!
I think this might be a model, though on Mars it will probably be underground: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minneapolis_Skyway_System
Starting with the following assumptions:
-10 160 lb (73 kg) men for a crew
-2% of body mass for food per day/sol (the difference is irrelevant)
This results in each crew member needing 1.46 kg of food per sol. I imagine the first agriculture could be set up in 10 sols, and the growing season of many crops are 90 days, so I'd imagine the crew would need around 100 sols to rely on pre-landed food. This results in 146 kg of food needed in total for each crew member, or 1,460 kg of food for the whole crew. Assuming that the capacity of the cargo lander is indeed 300 tonnes, or 300,000 kg, rounding the food up to 1,500 kg means that only 0.5% of the cargo lander need be non-perishable food. That being said, my calculations don't take into account the food needed by the crew en route to Mars, although that would be on the rocket with them, and not in the cargo lander.
Printmaking might be a prevalent art form on Mars. The materials can be rather easily produced in situ, and regolith dissolved in water might make for an interesting pigment.
I'm intrigued by the prospect of a "Poet Laureate" for Mars, and similar "officials". Overall, I think "artists" and culture-makers would comprise about 10% of the total population for an early colony.
1) Radiation - pioneers could simply wear white suits to deflect much of the radiation. Somewhat more realistically, piling regolith on would protect habs from it.
2) Thin atmosphere - would in pre-terraformation times probably be a bit of a boon for civil engineering purposes, so stuff like the beginning of The Martian doesn't happen. In any case probably irrelevant since we'd be living in habs and wearing suits outside.
3) Agreed, rather irrelevant for the first pioneers, and in any case perchlorates can be filtered out for native-regolith agriculture and producing Oxygen as RobS said.
4) Low gravity - again likely a boon for civil engineering/construction purposes (shallower foundations are needed, can build taller buildings, etc.), and I guess those who plan to return to Earth would probably have to lift more weights at the gym to compensate.
5) I'm not so sure how relevant microbial infection will be. On one hand I doubt any native life on Mars would be complex enough to wreak havoc on our immune systems like HIV, it would almost certainly consist of extremophiles, which could themselves be devastating for our bodies.
SpaceNut, I think this topic is in the wrong subforum.
Apparently he was, but the Air Force failed to notify the FBI of such a conviction, hence why he was able to purchase them anyway.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/breaking … ar-AAuwkQ7
I'm unable to reply to posts when I'm on my phone because whenever I click on the textbox it expands to cover up the "Submit" button.
Apologies if there's already a thread on this topic, but I thought that the sports played on Mars would be worthy of discussion. I think that, at least initially, sports would be imported from Earth, albeit with some possible adjustments of dimensions to account for space limitations (and depending on the sport, lower gravity on Mars compared to Earth).
Here are some major sports on Earth and comments on how they might be adapted for Mars. I think all sports that use a grassy field will probably take place on some sort of astroturf on Mars.
ASSOCIATION FOOTBALL (SOCCER):
I, like many Americans, find Soccer to be incredibly boring to watch. Having said that, it is the most popular sport on Earth. While it might not find much use in American settlements beyond a niche, it could be popular elsewhere. The dimensions for a court according to FIFA is between 45 to 90 m in width and 90 to 120 m in length. This translates to 4,050 to 10,800 m^2 in area. (~43,600-116,250 sq ft)
BASKETBALL:
I personally think Basketball will be the most popular sport in early settlements. It was invented as an indoor sport in the 1890s for rainy days and long winters. While there probably won't be that much rain on Mars, the temperatures outside will be mostly winter-like by Earth standards. A basketball court by NBA standards is 94 by 50 ft, or a compact 4,700 sq ft. (~440 m^2) The court can probably be made of any sort of hard surface, increasing its versatility.
ICE HOCKEY:
Hockey is usually the domain of Canada, the northern US, the Nordics, and Russia. Like those places, Mars can get pretty cold. As such, it wouldn't be as much effort to keep a frozen ice rink year-round as it would be on much of the Earth. Dimensions for an NHL rink (I believe European rinks are a bit larger) are 200 by 85 ft, or 17,000 sq ft. (~1,600 m^2)
AMERICAN FOOTBALL/CANADIAN FOOTBALL/RUGBY:
American football is the most popular sport in the US, but the least popular of the "Big Four" North American sports outside of it. Canadian football I believe is fairly similar. Rugby (both league and union) is broadly similar, but also significantly different. Perhaps this would be a chance to create a truly unique Martian sport by combining these influences. In any event the dimensions of an NFL field are 360 by 160 ft, for 57,600 sq ft. (~5,400 m^2)
BASEBALL:
Baseball is the quintessential American sport. It's also very fun to collect and calculate statistics and sabermetrics with it. However, unlike the other sports, the physical differences between Earth and Mars aren't negligible with respect to the sport. The Martian gravity is around a third of Earth's gravity, which means that when a ball is hit it can go much farther. As such, Home Runs might become such a common occurrence that the field would have to be expanded to bring the frequency of them back down to roughly Earth levels. This is manageable, since the MLB doesn't specify a maximum distance of the outfield wall from home plate, so this expansion can occur without any formal rule changes.
CRICKET:
As much as I haven't quite wrapped my head around its rules, Cricket sounds interesting as a sport. It is likely impacted by the same gravity differences as Baseball.
I agree with Josh, and believe that regardless of the nominal religion Mars will be more secular than Earth.
As for mosques on Mars, I already have a design in mind! On Earth, mosques possess a "mehrab," a niche in the wall that indicates the direction to Mecca, because when Muslims say their obligatory prayer they face Mecca. Mosques thus are often rectangular, with the long axis pointed toward Mecca. But on Mars, mosques will have to be round, with a movable mehrab indicating the direction to the Earth! As long as the Earth isn't overhead, there will be a wall to face. I suspect such a mosque will indeed be built some day.
That's a very interesting idea, but I still don't quite understand how one would extend the concepts of "east" and "west" to interplanetary space.
Might I also propose a ban on peacetime conscription? I was thinking of such a ban only applying to the federal military, but if we're making the military solely a federal responsibility, and eschewing the National Guards of the US I guess it would be irrelevant.
I think direct democracy would work best for municipal governments (much like the Town Meetings of New England), although with respect to the federal government I can see referendums being used for amending the constitution.
I don't particularly have anything for common, statutory law (which would probably vary by municipality in any case), but I've been tinkering with a constitution, probably one of several that will be proposed. I do agree that separation of church and state is a good thing, and I could see how all municipalities have to be at least nominally secular. I've tended to see Mars, at least at the federal level, as a common law jurisdiction, though that might just be me being Ameri-/Anglocentric.
As for my tinkered constitution, here it is, divided by the three branches of Government and other notes:
LEGISLATURE:
-The ultimate legislative body is the unicameral General Assembly.
-Each municipality gets 5 members to the General Assembly, to be elected as it sees fit. The part of Mars not part of any municipality gets 1 member, to be elected per Federal Law.
-Members are elected to terms of 1 year (~2 Earth years). There is no staggering, the entirety of the General Assembly is up for election every cycle.
-The General Assembly is headed by a Speaker, elected by its membership, who conducts meetings, keeps order, and is responsible for committee assignments.
-Unlike most Westminster-system jurisdictions, but like the United States, the President of Mars, despite having a role in the legislative process as detailed below, is not formally considered a part of the General Assembly.
-Members of the General Assembly must be citizens and no younger than 11 years old (slightly younger than 21 in Earth years).
EXECUTIVE:
-The ultimate executive decision-making body is the Executive Council, consisting of a President, Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Treasurer, Surveyor General, Attorney General, Postmaster General, and Secretary of Defense and the Interior.
-Members are elected individually by direct popular vote with universal suffrage for a term of 2 Martian years (~4 Earth years).
-Members of the Executive Council must be citizens and no younger than 16 years old (slightly older than 30 in Earth years).
-One cannot be a member of both the Executive Council and the General Assembly simultaneously.
-President is head of state and head of government, but is only primus inter pares within the Executive Council.
-Most executive decisions are made by the Executive Council as a group, and it is the Executive Council as a group that signs treaties, to be ratified by the General Assembly.
-President has veto power over bills passed by the General Assembly, which can be overridden by a two-thirds majority of elected General Assembly members. Like most American State Governors but unlike the US President, this is a line-item veto, meaning that the President can at his will veto parts of bills, rather than having to sign or veto a bill as-is.
-Vacancies for non-Presidential positions are filled by a Presidential appointment with the advice and consent of the General Assembly for the remainder of the term.
-Vacancies in the Presidency are filled by the Speaker of the General Assembly for the remainder of the term; if there is an intervening General Assembly election there will be held in conjunction a by-election for the Presidency for the rest of the term. In keeping with separation of powers the Speaker recuses himself from the General Assembly while substituting for the President.
-The President has the right to call a special session of the General Assembly as he sees fit.
-The President is required to give a speech to the General Assembly the equivalent of every one Earth year detailing the State of Planet.
JUDICIARY:
-There is a Supreme Court of Mars, which is the highest court and most probably the only court outside of the municipalities.
-There will be an odd number of judges, no fewer than 3 nor more than 9.
-Members are appointed by the President with the advice and consent of the General Assembly for life.
FEDERALISM:
-Currency, bankruptcy, intermunicipal commerce, immigration and naturalization, foreign affairs, and administraion of the extramunicipal area (the so-called "outback") are the domains of the federal government.
-Everything else is devolved to the municipalities, which are, as in the United States and Australia but unlike Canada and India, considered sovereign entities in their own right.
-I still don't know how municipalities would be admitted to the Union.
However, sale of freehold does seem to conflict with the Outer Space Treaty.
This might be a ground for revising the OST depending on how advanced colonization becomes. But that is beyond the point of this thread, IMO.
Another approach might be to sell Mars Bonds which would guarantee owners a share in the profits of the Mars Corporation.
While that is certainly doable, I think bondholders would be mostly Terran, so I doubt it'd have much an effect on the Martian GDP. Though as Josh says, debt might not be the best financing model. Perhaps MarsCorp could issue preferred shares that have priority over common stock in getting profits but without any voting rights.
Hey Ian,
I think it would be a mistake to take terraformation for granted. I don't have a strong stance on how difficult it would be to terraform (The options as I see it are "really, really hard" and "really, really, really hard") or on the red/green debate. No matter what ends up happening, though, Mars will remain uninhabitable for a pretty long time.
Until terraformation is substantially underway (e.g. at the least a few centuries from now) empty land on Mars will be substantially more empty than empty land on Earth, and substantially less valuable. As I'm sure you know, the reason why Americans wanted more land in the nineteenth century was that peoples' livelihoods were basically agricultural, and therefore land+animals=wealth. As we discussed earlier in the thread that's not really true anymore. Uninhabited Martian land is nobody's idea of arable farmland, and even if it were it wouldn't be worth very much as such given labor and transportation costs.
Land on Mars is more like land in northern Alaska, Siberia, Antarctica, or Canada's Northwest Territories than the American Prairie: It's cold, not very useful unless it's got an extractable resource on it, inhospitable, and hard to get to.
Terraformation obviously would change that, but that's a many-trillion dollar investment over centuries, and one that is way beyond our current capabilities.
Of course, I'm simply listing a potential commodity of sorts. The SSI assumes that most Martian land deeds would be simply bought and sold for novelty value, which would probably be right.
Regarding your point JoshNH4H, Mars has quite a bit of land; 55.91 million square miles, in fact. That comes out to 35.78 billion acres, or 21.47 billion acres if we assume 40% is below terraformed sea level. In theory this can bring in $214.7 million in gross revenue if sold at merely a penny an acre, or $858.8 million if sold at a quarter an acre, or even a whopping trillion dollars if sold for less than $50/acre, and I believe that is the crux of the argument of the Space Settlement Institute. However, based on various data from http://home.costhelper.com/land-surveyor.html, it costs around $85-150 to survey an acre of land (in bulk, which is what Martian real estate would be) in the tame and developed United States, which would serve as a minimum price for sale if actual homesteading (as opposed to simple novelty values as the SSI suggests) is the goal. This makes the surveying costs alone reach $1.8-3.2 trillion for the entire (above sea level) planet, something that would definitely need some economic raison d'etre.
I am always amazed at how people completely ignore irrigation. The amount of irrigation going on now is many, many times more than 50 years ago and that means much more water is being pumped into the atmosphere (as vapour) rather than into the oceans (as water). No one really knows whether water vapour is a positive or a negative for global warming (since clouds also reflect) but assuming it is a positive, then I am amazed no one really looks into this, while all research is focussed on CO2.
From what I learned in my atmosphere class, although water vapor contributes more to the greenhouse effect than CO2, it's not as problematic since it precipitates out of the atmosphere as rain. That being said, I could very well see how irrigation and thus increased H2O in the atmosphere might contribute to increased warming.
Working a bit backward from Josh's work, here are the median (25%-level) wages/salaries for the intermediate level of various professions in the US according to salary.com:
Tailor: $28,715 ($23,031)
Plumber: $53,911 ($46,960)
Surveyor: $45,477 ($36,712)
Electrician: $56,709 ($49,435)
Lawyer: $120,341 ($101,575)
Doctor: $222,012 ($200,874)
For a Martian colony to attract more people to it, these are generally the types of salaries that it would have to be able to sustain. Assuming salaries are relatively normally distributed, the lower the salaries the fewer people it can attract. I would expect as the economy grows, the more in terms of salaries it can support, which in turn would attract more people, creating a positive feedback loop. Of course, we need some export product to start that loop off.
You were a bit sniffy about the Mars colony producing books, as if clearly the physical books themselves weren't part of the Mars economy. But if it's a Mars Corporation producing them on Earth, and repatriating profits to Mars to aid the colonisation effort, I think in some sense it is an extension of the Mars economy...analogous to Ford opening up operations outside the USA but to some extent still being an American operation while based in other countries.
I think that would make those books part of the Martian GNP, or Gross National Product, as opposed to the GDP. The difference is that the GNP is the production of things owned by Mars or Martian nationals, while the GDP is for stuff produced specifically in (on) Mars.