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#1076 Re: Human missions » Crew vehicles discussion » 2005-04-06 09:23:38

Right Bill, because the President saying we are going tommorow, without the capability or experience, makes a whole heck of a lot sense.

Using your analogy, he kicked the can. He set it in motion. That's all he could do. But remember, he didn't even have to do that.

Yup. And he deserves credit for doing that. Now, NASA and Congress must fashion the next step.

= = =

David Halberstam wrote a great line about Jerry Krause, general manager of the Chicago Bulls during their repeat three-peat era. Krause was jealous of the attention Michael Jordan received and would assert that he (Krause) was the real hero of the Bulls success.

Halberstam wrote (paraphrased):

By seeking more credit than he deserevd, Krause merely assured that he would get less credit than he deserved. 

President Bush deserves credit (and praise) for 14 Jan 2004. But how much credit? And we now face countless "now what?" questions.

= = =

Last spring, clark, you told us (me) to await the Aldridge report.

Okay. its been out for a while. Now what? :;):



Edited By BWhite on 1112801107

#1077 Re: Human missions » Crew vehicles discussion » 2005-04-06 09:17:31

As far as I can see the creation of Lox from insitu lunar or martian regolith is going to be a show stopper unless the power sources required can be created.

Solar powered pyrolysis will outgas O2 from lunar regolith without major capital investment.

Less efficient than other techniques from a chemical engineering pespective but VERY efficient from an accountant's pespective.

Use inflated gossamer mylar mirrors (cheap & lightweight which holds down launch costs) and then merely heat the regolith in a sealed box until the O2 outgasses.


Edited By BWhite on 1112800668

#1078 Re: Human missions » Crew vehicles discussion » 2005-04-06 09:11:10

Rand Simberg (a very pro-Bush person) recently gave an extremely apt description of the VSE as set forth on 14 January 2004:

Lets just kick the can down the road a little bit. . .

IMHO? Exactly! A spot on characterization.

= = =

Merely going in circles in LEO is unacceptable.

Bravo! We all agree with President Bush on this.


Moon, then Mars, then beyond.

Grumble, quibble, whine, but then well, okay, I guess. Leaving LEO is sufficient reward.


How do we do this?

Come back in 2009 and ask the next President. You see, I just kicked the can down the road and its not my problem no more.

#1079 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Moon resonant orbits » 2005-04-05 19:30:14

I find this persuasive.

Currently 80% of a crewed Mars mission is fuel. 100MT in LEO means a 20MT lander to Mars per MarsDirect. Thus, an NEO in this HEEO has the potential to reduce Earth to Mars transit costs by somewhat less than 80%.   

Cool!  big_smile

= = =

Edit: Mine the NEO for PGMs using the carbonyl process and simply leave the Ni-Fe on the NEO to maintain momentum and mass.

= = =

Edit #2 - - Use an equatorial HEEO (close to zero inclination) that will assure the northern hemisphere nations (USA, Russia etc. . ) that there is no danger of a large NEO smashing into a city.



Edited By BWhite on 1112751209

#1080 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri IV - Continued from previous » 2005-04-05 16:30:58

Seize power; loot the http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.a … le]pension plan - - Nothing but the good old fashioned corporate raider mentality.

#1081 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Moon resonant orbits » 2005-04-05 15:56:07

And the momentum of the space mail bag would then be transfered up the tether to the station anchor point either breaking the anchor form the station or breaking the tether rope if the station is stationary. Now if one could store the energy on transfer of motion by spinning the station picking up small amounts of energy to keep it spinning then it might not break the tether or its anchor point. But you would need to match the station spinning speed.

Bah! That is merely engineering. big_smile

Using 1960s technology fighter jets are arrested on aircraft carriers every day. We stop F-18s over distances measured in feet, or at least yards. With a 100 km tether there are lots of tricks to minimize shock loading.

Why would this be harder than building a space elevator? A lunar elevator (by the way) might not need carbon nanotubes to stay up.

However if HEEO (highly elliptical Earth Orbit) ferries are possible, I don't propose they be built from Earth materials. Mined Asteroidal resources coming in on a hyperbolic trajectory with a near earth periapsis could be captured with very little delta vee to a HEEO.

Suppose we move a nickel iron asteroid into a HEEO.

Deploy tethers to accelerate crew taxis and cargo to the HEEO and simultaneously deccelerate the Ni-Fe NEO to a lower orbit for easier mining and delivery to Earth.

If the Ni-Fe is headed for Earth anyway, so what if you subtract momentum from the NEO?

= = =

There is a whole Sci-Fi universe here, with the value of a Ni-Fe NEO augmented by its ability to transfer momentum to spacecraft in LEO, before slowed to a lower orbit and mined into oblivion. Then move a new Ni-Fe NEO into a HEEO.

Buy and sell momentum rights on the commodities market.



Edited By BWhite on 1112738426

#1082 Re: Interplanetary transportation » The Myth of Heavy Lift - (Let the fight begin...) » 2005-04-05 08:30:45

We are all under false hope if we think that if we save the yearly budget over a period of time that we can do anything.

But the facts of the past have been that as each year were to go by that the congress would cut the budgets of nasa as for it would be seeing nothing has come from the money given there reaction would be to continue lowering it as each year progressed until we have no space programs at all.

So we can not wait to accumilate the funds before investing them into designing of what we need for the moon or mars or for that fact into colonization of space.

And you put your finger on the problem and in a nutshell. So we need either a short range goal that congress can see the accomplishment of the NASA projects or we need a new mission goal of what we want to do in space and then go after it. Within the budget we got, that would leave Mars out and even going back to the moon might be a problem. Then we need to start peddling the idea that we need the Helium 3 as a replacement power source for oil to push new moon mission to the moon.

Larry,

Platinum for lower cost fuel cells in order to stretch our current energy sourecs further can be deployed today without fusion breakthroughs.

That said, He3 does have commercial value other than fusion and to harvest it also while mining platinum is an obvious possibility.

Do not harvest one lunar resouce. Harvest them all.

LOX for spaceflight applications;
PGMs & He3 for export to Earth; and
Lunar tourism and "pay to study" university led research missions

etc. . .

Its not an either/or situation

#1083 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Falcon 1 & Falcon 9 » 2005-04-05 07:22:17

Well it is scarry. You can't say "close enough" like you can a satelite orbit or something...

You have to bring a ten-tonne chunk of metal to a dead stop with centimeter precision with a high degree of reliability in all the vastness of space before your power runs out... if you can't get within reach and stopped for the slow-moving ISS robot arm, then it doesn't matter how cheap your rocket is.

And you have to do it safely... if you screw up, you have a ten-tonne missile on a collision course, which almost was the doom of Mir.

And of this is why Progress launched from Kouru, at less than $2000 per pound for cargo delivered to the airlock, is the best value going right now.

#1084 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri IV - Continued from previous » 2005-04-05 06:36:40

Concerning Cobra's avatar, flamboyantly wrapped in the red, white and blue. . .

Some folks are more expressive of their pride and love.

Not speaking for Cobra here...just responding.

Some folks just mock everything, even if we do have pride and love for it.  big_smile

Exactly! big_smile

This is why I chose Cobra's avatar for my example. A red, white and blue Darth Vader? The mockery door has already been opened.

Some sometimes we love that which we mock. And sometimes we  must mock that which we love, to keep it out of the deep water.

= = =

Once again it appears Cobra and I process data in much same way, we simply seem to start with different data samples.

= = =

He writes:

America has a great many things to be insecure about when you get down to it. At present we have a mythology that doesn't jive with our reality. Americans are supposed to be industrious, self-reliant and independent people, hard work will bring success and wealth and you're free to live as you see fit.

I agree.

We also have a tradition of one person, one vote and we are less than 5% of the global population. Long term, something has to give way.



Edited By BWhite on 1112704683

#1085 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Moon resonant orbits » 2005-04-04 21:34:52

Aren't highly elliptical orbits also known as high energy orbits? Or did I pick that up wrong, somewhere?

Zubrin writes about a manuever known as the perigee kick with the orbit becoming more and more elliptical after every burn.

If your apogee is really high and perigee very low, you'll be going almost escape velocity at perigee. For example the moon resonant orbit I was talking about with LEO perigee and apogee almost as high as the moon is moving 10.8 km/sec at perigee. Add .1 km/sec to get to 10.9 km/sec escape velocity and then with another .4 km/sec and you're on your way to Mars with a .5 km/sec burn.

This seems to be the same idea.

The ingenious aspect of your idea is to look for a stable high energy orbit that passes through useful locations like L3, L4 and L5 and deploy a large station in that orbit. Tethers would allow you to snag low mass crew taxis rather like US Mail bags were once snagged by speeding locomotives.



Edited By BWhite on 1112672288

#1086 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Who Governs Mars? - Corporate Warlords vs. Commonwealth » 2005-04-04 15:07:34

The modern nation-state dates more or less from the Peace at Westphalia, as I recall. I do not believe the contemporary nation-state is the proper entity to undertake space settlement.

= = =

Subgroups of humanity formed around religion or culture might pay lip service to being multi-national and inclusive of all nations on Earth with the demographic reality being very different.

There has been more to nationhood than just the westphalian peace treaty. What westphalian did was to really acknowledge the status quo. The holy Roman Empire still remained a country dominated by local princes and this did lead to its dissolvement simply as it had no real power central power. And that 30 years war for all its horror was a manipulated war with almost all other European powers playing and manipulating events, The tensions where there before its just the other countries used what is Germany to play it out.

What really described modern states is the loss of power of the local lords to a drive to a more centralised power and an eventual lead to democracy from monarchism and an enfranchisement of the populace.

And the main players in the thirty year wars where countries we can easily recognise in existence now, this was correct before the War and afterwards.

I am no expert in European history yet I recall that Westphalia also codified the reality that the Catholics, Lutherans and Calvinists had beaten one another into a bloody three way stalemate.

I daresay the Vatican was not pleased at ceding power to secular authorities. Today, a very real issue in Europe is whether Muslim immigrants will be more loyal to the flag or the faith.

#1087 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Falcon 1 & Falcon 9 » 2005-04-04 15:03:42

GCNRevenger, my intuition is that you are correct about Kistler.

However, I predict Musk will be given plenty of slack even if one or another specific payload gets pulled. Such delays are a major setback, but will not be fatal so long as Musk believes he can make a profit - - eventually - - flying rockets for the prices he claims.

#1088 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Moon resonant orbits » 2005-04-04 14:57:38

Can you suggest on-line research links for the "Oberth effect?"

#1089 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Falcon 1 & Falcon 9 » 2005-04-04 14:22:34

Elon needs to get on with it, he doesn't have unlimited time. If it takes months and years to prep a Falcon-I for launch, how is he supposed to have any decent flight rate? And if he can't handle the dinky Falcon-I, how will he handle th big Falcon-V?

I call troll.  tongue  big_smile

:up:

Both NASA and DoD crave lift not coming from Boeing or Lockmart. Delays will be annoying but not fatal, if Falcon works for the price advertised.

GCNRevenger, why do we witness an almost Schiavo-like attachment to Kistler?  IMHO, because if Kistler succeeds, low cost to LEO will have arrived.

Elon Musk has burned through maybe 3% of the indulgences granted Kistler.



Edited By BWhite on 1112646348

#1090 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Who Governs Mars? - Corporate Warlords vs. Commonwealth » 2005-04-04 14:18:05

But for that to happen Bill it would require a population on Mars counted in the minimum of millions. For that to happen a nation would need a really tremendous space transportation system a decent amount of space knowledge and a lot of political and financial will. It also would likely not be alone on the planet.

Still for a country to deny a whole planet to other nations it would need to be in control of a real majority of that planet. And it would have to be a very large majority too. Still there is the ability to control certain areas of the solar system that give a form of bottleneck situation and a real benefit to the nation that controls it.

But I really do not believe that any country will have the power to control Mars and to actually completely dominate space to that degree.

The modern nation-state dates more or less from the Peace at Westphalia, as I recall. I do not believe the contemporary nation-state is the proper entity to undertake space settlement.

= = =

Subgroups of humanity formed around religion or culture might pay lip service to being multi-national and inclusive of all nations on Earth with the demographic reality being very different.



Edited By BWhite on 1112646020

#1091 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri IV - Continued from previous » 2005-04-04 12:28:03

Concerning Cobra's avatar, flamboyantly wrapped in the red, white and blue. . .

Males who buy oversized powerboats or 10 foot tall stereo speakers (at least in my college days) are compensating for a perceived deficiency in another department.

Might that suggest something about a nation that feels the need to wrap everything in a flag? An underlying insecurity, perhaps?

#1092 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Who Governs Mars? - Corporate Warlords vs. Commonwealth » 2005-04-04 12:22:51

I actually beliewe this latest idea by Sr. Mean-ey as rather interesting. You see, when someone has bought up a great portion of land of Mars from the people, he will have added incentive to promote space travelling technology and terraforming and exoterestrial colonisation technology to get some returns for his initial investment. Most likely someone that is allready in that genre will start buying up shares of Mars to get better and save revenues for his inital investment in space faring technology.

But space faring investment depends hugely on one thing, continuing growth of human, but that has in fact gone into recess in way to many countries, due to social engineering of feminism and socialdemocratism. We need more resources, and the human resource is the ultimate resource, the best investment of them all. Growing population will need more land, so the worth of property on Mars will grow, thus creating incentives for initial investment in Martian settlement. The Earth can supply enough of people for us to grow much more than we are today, but we should not just be fixeted on the Earth, we have also the Moon, Mars, hopefully Venus one day and even beyond.

Leifur, if one segment or subset of humanity saw things this same way. they could get to Mars first, make babies and then decline to share any of Mars with the rest of us.

President Bush says it not a race, but a journey. Yeah. Right!   tongue

#1093 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Aldrin's Cyclers » 2005-04-04 10:59:43

Perhaps in a few centuries we will attach tethers to large numbers of inner solar system asteroids and by use of ultra high powered computational methods allow spacecraft to "swing" from asteroid to asteroid using momentum transfers. Vessels travelling in different directions can replenish momentum borrowed from these objects.

I love it! Let's call this the "Tarzan propulsion system"! Better than going from tree to tree. . . . I guess the questin them will be, can we equip enough "trees" with "vines" for it to work!

          -- RobS

George of the Jungle was my image.

RobS, I know you enjoy writing fiction. Think about some of the lingo that inhabitants of a cycler city might develop. For example, imagine a cycling "castle" with a few thousand inhabitants:

"Hi guy, haven't seen you in a while. What's going on?"

"Not much, just 'taining mo'"

'taining mo' = maintaining momentum which would be one of the ongoing critical issues for the city.

At Aldrin CIty, Martin Lo's papers are taught in junior high.

= = =

I have long believed L5 cities are a fairly daft idea except as small outposts. Get those suckers moving in free return orbits and build them as big or bigger than any L5 fantasy city.

#1094 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Who Governs Mars? - Corporate Warlords vs. Commonwealth » 2005-04-04 09:55:06

'Tis a pity I will not likely survive to watch the real fireworks many, many decades from now as humans dispute who owns what, out there. But its going to make a great and tragic story.

If history is any guide, the humans who dispute who owns what out there, the price will be paid by those who live down here.

Sounds like Bill is speaking for the Liberation Front of Martain Exiles Free People CommonWealth. We hate them, they are traitors, swine!

Actually, I belong to a secret society, of one.  Ooops. I let loose of the secret. Time to expel myself.

#1095 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Who Governs Mars? - Corporate Warlords vs. Commonwealth » 2005-04-04 08:27:51

I've just had an Idea for funding the Move into Space.

If every one on this planet is an equal shareholder in the Mineral rights of Mars and each Share is about fifty million billion, let's start buying and selling those rights in the Stock Market. With that sort of wealth I could fund my own space station.

This idea would work, of course, but only if we first had a world government that most of us 7 billion humans deemed legitimate.

I won't hold my breath.

= = =

Read about the Treaty of Tordesillas. The Pope gave half of the New World to Spain and half to Portugal. Which was fine and dandy until the French and English and Dutch disputed the Pope's authority to make that grant.

= = =

Who will have the authority to write the property laws for celestial mining rights will be the great political battleground of the next few centuries.

'Tis a pity I will not likely survive to watch the real fireworks many, many decades from now as humans dispute who owns what, out there. But its going to make a great and tragic story.



Edited By BWhite on 1112625053

#1096 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Aldrin's Cyclers » 2005-04-04 08:21:22

BWhite mentions the use of tethers to impart momentum to taxis. I've played around with cycler mass-drivers to help send the taxis on their way. Either of these would change the cycler's momentum and make course correction necessary as White notes.

Ion engines may be a good way to do this. The continuous thrust trajectories are not the conics I've become accustomed to, so, sorry, I can't do the math on those.

Simple solar thermal might be a low tech solution to provide continuous thrust during the extended transits betweeen Mars and Earth.

The math detail is waay over my head however the idea that some fancy computers could "play billiards" and design trajectories to place cyclers at specific points in space (& time)  seems conceptually easy enough.

= = =

Perhaps in a few centuries we will attach tethers to large numbers of inner solar system asteroids and by use of ultra high powered computational methods allow spacecraft to "swing" from asteroid to asteroid using momentum transfers. Vessels travelling in different directions can replenish momentum borrowed from these objects.

Fuel efficient travel.

Heh!  - - Who "owns" the right to use the momentum possessed by this or that NEO?

#1097 Re: Not So Free Chat » Prayers for the Pope » 2005-04-03 23:21:44

o.k, he spent the last fifteen years apologizing for the Galileo events of hundreds of years ago; but all in all, he's part of an establishment that wants to replace him with a more evangelical Pope . . . .

This might well be true. Then, we must be ready to use this last Pope's own words about Galileo and evolution when/if the establishment chooses an anti-scientific Pope.

That said, take sex issues off the table (and euthanasia perhaps) and Pope John Paul II was really rather liberal on everything else.

#1098 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Aldrin's Cyclers » 2005-04-03 23:15:54

One thing that worries me about Aldrin's Cyclers is the abort mode for the Taxi's if they miss their redevous.  Most designs I have seen call for dispisable high energy chemical stages to reach the necessary delta-V to catchup up to the cycler.  But what if for some reason they miss, it's not exactly an easy operation by any means.  The taxi may lack the means to return their crew to Earth or even Earth orbit.

It's even scarier for the Mars taxi trip. The Aldrin path is almost 90 degrees to the Martian path. The delta vee between Mars and castle is 12 km/sec. So if you don't make it to Mars, you're up the creek with no paddle. This is my major objection to the Aldrin cyclers. Other cyclers have much nicer delta vees.

What about using tethers deployed from the cycler to accelerate the taxi? Loiter the taxi on a relatively low energy orbit that merely intersects the trajectory of the cycler.

Deploy multiple and very long tethers (50 - 100 km?) in front of the cycler, or at right angles to the cycler's movement. Given the low mass of the tether, a very small engine could manuever the tether tip fairly easily.

Snag the taxi (and then solve an enormous shock loading problem!) then reel in the taxi. 

= = =

Loiter your crew taxi at a La Grange point or fly the taxi on an orbit that quickly returns back to Earth or Mars but which comes within 50km (or 100km or maybe closer) of where (and when!) the fast moving cycler will pass.

Use slack in the tethers to give additional time to assure a solid redundant connection BEFORE the tethers draw taut. If attachment begins as the cycler continues to approach the taxi, slack would increase for a while, allowing a manueverable tether tip to simplify hooking up. Attach securely with multiple tethers and wait for the gee-forces.

Carefully planned "rope tricks" might well ease the shock loading by spreading it out - - also if the cycler attachment points spooled their tethers on large drums, let the taxi play out the tether using the inertia of the spinning drum to dissapate the shock loads.

A Bigelow style (gossamer or inflatable) 6 person taxi with one heck of a hard point keel to anchor the attachment points might be surprisingingly low in mass, which makes the tether technology all the easier.

= = =

The cycler will lose momentum which would need to be recovered by ion drive, solar sails or whatever. Lots and lots of math!  big_smile

So Hop right on it! (Sorry for the pun)

= = =

A chemical kick stage to be fired after the tether loads up can also be used to mitigate the shock loading. Suppose the chemical stage is only 50% of what is needed to match velocities. It would still reduce the tether loads substantially.


Edited By BWhite on 1112591881

#1099 Re: Not So Free Chat » Prayers for the Pope » 2005-04-03 22:36:36

Conservative beliefs? Okay about gays and abortion Pope John Paul II was perhaps conservative however I believe Juan Cole is spot on with this:

John Paul II was often an inconvenient man, whose moral vision would be upsetting to the US Republican establishment if it were taken seriously. He opposed the death penalty, to which George W. Bush is so attached. He opposed the Iraq War. He condemned laissez-faire capitalism and cared about the exploitation of workers, who he felt should have a dignity that is seldom bestowed upon them by the Walmarts and other firms in the US. And he cared about the rights and welfare of the Palestinian people in a way that virtually no one in the American political establishment does. He symbolically blessed the Palestinian claim that Jerusalem is the eternal capital of the Palestinian people.



Edited By BWhite on 1112589410

#1100 Re: Human missions » The Lunar Folly - NASA Scientists give their reasons. » 2005-04-01 15:42:56

If there is no colonization, there is no need for a manned space program.

Untrue, space has atoms that we need on Earth that aren't available anywhere on this planet in sufficent quantity. And yes, there is the good ol' zero-g manufacturing thing.

Mining and even zero-gee manufacture require permanent presence of substantial equipment if not people and perhaps can be called colonization-lite.

= = =

Edit to add:  Permanent settlers "on the ground" would appear to have a more legitimate claim to ownership of mining sites near where they were actually living.



Edited By BWhite on 1112391957

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