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#1026 Re: Meta New Mars » Poster to Recruit New Members » 2021-04-17 18:36:37

Nope...

With that sort of slogan you normally explain under the eye catching phrase what you mean...

So in this case you might have text below (obviously you'd have an image probably of Mars and maybe a Space X style rocket heading there) - saying something like:

"Join in the discussion at New Mars Forums where people are thinking creatively about how we are going to make Mars a second home for humanity."

Maybe sign off with "Your species needs you!" - in mimicry of the old "Your country needs you" WW1 UK posters or "Uncle Sam needs you" (Uncle Mars for USA?).

tahanson43206 wrote:

For Louis re #5

May I inquire if your proposed slogan should read ...

Join the (Metaphorical) Journey to Mars?

(In bold print, of course)

(th)

#1027 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Settlement design » 2021-04-17 18:09:49

People sometimes forget that steel is not the only way of reinforcing concrete:

https://www.deutsche-basalt-faser.de/en … forcement/

"Basalt Rebar is an outstanding product for concrete reinforcement. It weighs 4 times less than steel rebar and its tensile strength is 3 times higher. Basalt rebars are manufactured from basalt fibers by pultrusion technology. The surface is profiled and sanded. This kind of surface treatment results in a better adhesion in concrete."

This seems like an obvious way to go on Mars - use the plentiful basalt to reinforce the concrete. Finding goods sources of calcium carbonate is going to be a lot more difficult.


GW Johnson wrote:

Building buildings on Mars is very,  very different from building buildings on Earth.  Precisely because Martian buildings must be strongly pressurized to be habitable,  and Earthly buildings are entirely free of this requirement.  Pressurization means your structures must resist high tension and/or high bending.  Bending involves high tension,  too. 

Our masonry materials (cemented bricks and stones,  concrete) have good compressive strength,  but lousy to vanishing tensile strength.  The partial (PARTIAL !!!) exception is reinforced concrete.  The steel rebar in reinforced concrete carries the tensile loads,  but ONLY because the Young's Modulus of steel is much higher than the Young's Modulus of the concrete matrix.  That means you cannot use other materials of lower modulus than steel as your substitute rebar.

You can load the rebar to the point where the concrete cracks,  but no further.  Once cracked,  the concrete's compressive strength degrades,  sometimes is lost completely.  On Mars,  if you lose building pressurization,  the compressive strength is required to prevent collapse under its own weight,  lower gravity notwithstanding.  Lose compressive strength because you cracked the concrete matrix,  and the building falls.  The rebar WILL NOT prevent that.

These concrete and cement structures really are porous.  They will not be airtight without an appropriate coating on the inside.  If you crack them,  you tear that coating.  Just something else to consider.

Also,  consider the cold soak temperature effects we see on Mars that we don't even see at South Pole Station (coldest ever seen ~-115 F = ~ -82 C).  Mars has -130 F or colder,  quite commonly.  It can get to -200 F in some places.  I don't know what effect that might have on the concrete matrix,  or other masonry,  but it is catastrophic on the usual mild carbon steel we use for rebar.  It becomes as brittle and fragile as a glass window pane. 

Your rebar will have to be 304 stainless,  304L if you intend to weld it (and most rebar is welded).  That is a high-nickel steel that does not heat treat,  although it cold-works very hard very quickly.  It is NOT magnetic,  so that means of material handling gets ruled out. 

Just more food for thought. 

Bear in mind that these masonry and concrete materials (and the related soil mechanics for foundations) were not the focus of my aerospace education,  nor of the strength of materials classes that I had in college as an aerospace student.  I learned most of this on the job working in one or another aspect of civil engineering.

GW

#1028 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Settlement design » 2021-04-17 18:02:28

Interesting idea about using compacted regolith within domes...that would allow dome roofs to be much lighter and therefore more viable.

Experiments have shown we could create compressed Mars bricks (no baking required).

Calliban wrote:

I would second Louis's suggestion that urban spaces on Mars should be largely pedestrian and compact.  If you look at the urban landscapes that human beings consider to be cultural treasures, they are all compact and largely pedestrian.  Most of them were built before the industrial revolution, at which point mechanised transportation was not available.  Think places like Venice, Bruges and the renaissance cities and hill towns of Italy.

Compact cities make sense on Mars, as pressurised volumes are expensive relative to Earth.  They are places that must be kept pressurised and kept warm.  But they are also spaces where precipitation can get precisely controlled and zero if necessary.  I think this opens a lot of options that you could make these p,aces more livable.  Roof gardens.  Streets with seating that allows spillover from restaurants and bars.  It also allows adobe and rammed soil to be used as building materials beneath domes as we don't need to worry about precipitation causing erosion or degrading strength.

#1029 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » 2019 NCOV a.k.a. Wuhan's Diseases » 2021-04-17 17:46:04

Shouldn't you add "As far as I know." ?

We vaccine sceptics keep getting told by you vaccine enthusiasts we are going to die horrible deaths as punishment for our scepticism, so I think it's only fair I point that out.

GW Johnson wrote:

Spacenut:

Many of us had side effects similar to yours,  myself included,  after the second Moderna shot.  Not the first,  but the second had me feeling poor for about 36 hours.  No lasting effects. 

GW

#1030 Re: Human missions » SpaceX Moon lander » 2021-04-17 17:42:27

So basically NASA are going to pay for a Space X Mars landing proving mission! Great!!

#1031 Re: Human missions » SpaceX Moon lander » 2021-04-17 17:40:28

Space X: Legs? Yeah, whatever, we'll sort that out later.

Oldfart1939 wrote:

The Angry Astronaut has a good analysis of the NASA decision to fund SpaceX lunar lander.

Scott Manley does too, and as does Marcus House.

The SpaceX renders show 3 meter diameter pads on the landing legs (4 legs). as well

#1032 Re: Human missions » Yuri Gagarin 60th Anniversary April 12, 2021 » 2021-04-17 17:38:09

He was promoted to Major something while orbiting the planet...and when a peasant ask his fellow peasant father "Is that Major General Gagarin up there your son?" Gagarin's father replied "No, my son's only a Lieutenant."

tahanson43206 wrote:

Yuri Gagarin's pioneering space flight took place 60 years ago on April 12, 1961.

For SpaceNut ... for some reason, the name of the first human in space was not included in topics of the forum, so I'm hoping it might be noted in future years.

(th)

#1033 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Settlement design » 2021-04-17 07:38:57

Yes I like the Roman brick arch idea. I've often argued for that as part of a simple cut and cover trench with arches over. It might be very useful for creating low pressure CO2 farm habs using artifiical light.

Re doors and airlocks, I've wondered before now whether ice could form a barrier. So you might have A double air lock with ice in two separate large "U bend" pipes. When you want to open one "door" you melt the ice and pump out the water. When you want to close the "door" you pump in water and freeze it. Obviously you'd need some quick freeze and quick melt technology. The great advantage would be you save on material usage. They might be suitable for seldom visited automated farm habs.


RobertDyck wrote:

louis,

Are you aware of steel reinforcing bars (rebar) in concrete? The reason is concrete has great compressile strength, but very weak in tension. That means if you attempt to crush it, or sit a great weight on it, concrete will resist. But if you pull it, concrete will break easily. Bending involves compressing on one side, tension on the other. Steel has good tensile strength, so holds concrete together. But it can crack. To prevent cracks, you can prestress. That means the steel rebar or steel cables embedded in the concrete are put in tension. So attempting to pull will fight against that tension.

Bruce Mackenzie suggested brick. His idea was a brick structure using Roman technology: arches. Air pressure inside would blow the brick apart. To prevent that, Mars dirt is piled on top with more weight per unit area than air pressure inside. So there's still net compression, no tension. That has several issues. Air pressure pushes in all directions, including sideways from walls. This requires a the dirt to extend a significant distance from the walls. You will need a door of some sort to get in. The tunnel to the door will not have tens of feet of dirt pressing against it; in fact the door frame will have none. So any tunnel piercing the hill or dirt pile must be made of something with tensile strength. That means it can't be brick or concrete. Notice the Mars Homestead has a two story atrium with vaulted ceiling, made of brick. But that structure is will inside the hill. Apartments have a window, so apartments must be made of something else. Rover garage, entrance airlock, tunnel to surface structure such as greenhouses; all are made of something else. Options are steel, aluminum alloy, or fibreglass.

The other issue with brick is making it air tight. Pressure finds any way out that it can. A crack or small opening in the mortar will cause air pressure to leak into surrounding Mars dirt. That will result in a small tunnel to the surface. To prevent that, you have to spray the inside of the brick with a polymer sealant.

Notice I didn't include concrete. Because concrete doesn't have anywhere near the tensile strength. Rebar will hold it together, but any crack will form a pressure leak. Basically concrete has the same problems as brick. Mars Homestead did use concrete, but it requires rebar, and concrete was used to hold up the weight of Mars dirt over fibreglass tunnels. That way fibreglass shell outer surface can be accessed for repair, and doesn't have to withstand the dirt overburden. But don't expect concrete to be air tight.
http://www.marshome.org/images2/albums/ … age014.jpg

#1034 Re: Human missions » Carbon Monoxide - a way to power Mars? » 2021-04-17 07:13:22

I'd forgotten about this. It does seem that my original thought, that you could capture CO and oxygen from the atmosphere   and have a ready made energy store when humans landed a couple of years later is not so crazy and could work. Whether it's worth going to that trouble compared with just loading 30 tons of methane and oxygen on a Starship is another matter. I guess boil off over two months might be an issue?

#1035 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Settlement design » 2021-04-16 20:03:33

I agree there will be temporary phases before we get to a more permanent settlement. Initially there are going to be a lot of imported habs. These may be connected by pressurised all-purpose walkways. Initially quite a lot of the city's internal transport will be out on the surface in pressurised rovers, so if you want to get from the various farm habs, back to your residential area, you may get into a pressurised rover that can take you there.

After that I'm thinking we will see something more organic and ISRU - interconnected buildings made of Mars cement or concrete, perhaps tiled internally in basalt and covered in regolith on the outside to aid radiation protection.

Further development may depend on steel structure if we are going to build large domes. I quite like the suggestion made here by someone of large vaulted spaces, using cut and cover. So you have arched glass above allowing in some natural light. Down below you would have houses, offices, parks, trees and a kind of street scene, though vehicles would be more like electric golf buggies.

The absence of large private vehicles will I think be a big difference between a Mars City and an Earth one. The million person city might be say 36 miles square with no point being more than 10 miles away from another. Travel could be via electric scooters, electric bikes, electric buggies and a small number of robot buses or taxis travelling along dedicated routes. Most journeys could be completed within 10 minutes, and the maximum would be about 30 mins.



SpaceNut wrote:

So far we have wondered all over power creation and from the many sources that could be but are not to much help for the total topic of creating a settlement design which we know is not a one time building process. That it takes many building steps plus temporary structures to allow for the build while occupying those for the final build is completed. Once the finish home is made all of the temporary construction is recycled and saved for other projects to come as the city grows outward.

The power we need will also be temporary with steps taken to achieve the final systems no fail design. This will be the methods for all that we need for mars as the equipment and people to make things happen to grow so with the need for all of this to transition through temporary states as we build to a sustainable settlement.

#1037 Re: Meta New Mars » Poster to Recruit New Members » 2021-04-16 13:13:19

I was thinking more of a metaphorical journey but for some people that will become a reality.

tahanson43206 wrote:

For Louis re #3

Thank you for your interesting (to me for sure) contribution to this new topic!

Your suggestion for a slogan reminded me immediately of a song "premiered" in one of the videos saved in YouTube for the 2020 Mars Convention.  The refrain included the words "to Mars" ... I'll try to find the actual video and add it to this post...

However, in the process of looking for ** that ** video, I found ** this ** video from August 2020 ...

https://www.marssociety.org/videos/halfway-to-mars/

Apparently it was inspired by Elon Musk's publicity stunt (to which you referred...)

Halfway to Mars
August 9th, 2020
Permalink
Mars Society releases new song celebrating mankind's recent achievements in space In light of recent achievements in space and our continued efforts as a species to get humans on to the surface of the red planet, the Mars Society is thrilled to release an inspiring new song that celebrates the work of the pioneers of Mars and hopes to inspire us to strive even harder. The idea for the song came up, three months into the covid-19 lockdown, when Opera singer Oscar Castellino in a chat with British artist Linda Shanson in London realized that they could be halfway to Mars, if their home that they were confined to was a spaceship. The journey to Mars did not seem so difficult after all!

Regarding the slogan ... I like it, but the vast majority of people who are likely to earn incomes in careers related to Mars are ** not ** going there.

Like the suppliers to the gold miners in the American Gold Rush, the ** real ** economic winners are going to be all those individuals and companies (and indirectly governments) who support the many expeditions that will be occurring.

A slogan for ** those ** people would (probably) be phrased slightly differently.

In any case, thanks again for giving this new topic a boost!

(th)

#1038 Re: Meta New Mars » Poster to Recruit New Members » 2021-04-16 09:07:25

My view is that people will very quickly come round to the idea of a Mars as a second home for humanity in a way that the Moon never has been seen. This will happen when people begin to see HD TV images of places that look quite familiar. Once people see vehicles and people moving around on the surface, Starships arriving and leaving, exploration missions going here there and everywhere....well I think a lot of people will be inspired.

Musk is combination of many talents and publicity is one of them as we saw with his Starman stunt.

I'd expect something similar on Mars. Maybe he will return to his original idea of a greenhouse on Mars, lay down some artificial grass and have a tree growing in a greenhouse in the middle of the base...maybe a specially adapted Tesla will be driving around.  Maybe he'll organise a game of basketball or similar...who knows?

Anyway, if you need a slogan for a poster how about

Join the Journey - to Mars!



tahanson43206 wrote:

Noah sent a note to NewMarsMember * gmail.com

The conversation reminded me of an ongoing conversation with SpaceNut ...

Most people (humans) are job holders .... In fact, being a "job holder" is not only ** normal **, is is highly desirable.

However, not ONE of those jobs can exist or ever WILL exist without the services of that unique individual, the "job creator".

In an article I read recently, about the abject failure of the United States (as a collection of human beings) to prepare young people for careers as highly skilled machinists.  The article report that Elon Musk is betting his business on a cadre of highly skilled machinists who are nearing retirement.  There are no replacements in sight. 

In his recent email, Noah made the (quite reasonable) point that most of the folks he knows do not see Mars as a "real" possibility.

He observed that a criterion for seeing Mars as "real" may be whether humans have landed there or not.

Humans landed on the Moon decades ago.

A very ** small ** number of people see the Moon as worthy of the investment of time and energy, let alone devoting a career to it's exploration and settlement.

It is that very small group of people who are the prospects I would like to see invited to join/participate in the NewMars forum.

(th)

#1039 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Aerial phenomena » 2021-04-15 17:57:14

Yes leaving the evangelist to his fate is really no different from a naturalist leaving a lion to kill a gazelle that they've seen reared from birth and have grown to know. Naturalists have an ethical belief that you shouldn't directly intervene in the workings of the ecosystem although they do believe in protecting the whole ecosystem...

I try and base my conclusions on strong evidence.  There are lots of interesting and entertaining stories about various "visitations" but only a few very well documented with cross referencing. They tend to involve military facilities.

tahanson43206 wrote:

For Louis ... re Post #7

In the modern world we are careful about contact with very primitive tribes. We know that contact can be lethal both physically and culturally for such tribes and so we try to limit it.  There is a tribe in the Andaman Islands which India knows all about but basically leaves to their own devices having only very limited contact with them. India could easily move in and occupy the islands but, purely out of ethical considerations, they don't.

The island you mentioned above was in the (global) news not too long ago, when a white Evangelical youth decided to row himself onto the beach of the island. The natives put the individual to death.

There were observers, but knowing the prohibitions, they kept their distance.

***
I like the discussion here, and particularly your consideration of a superior set of beings hinting at presence but otherwise leaving us alone.

Many science fiction writers have speculated about advanced technology civilizations keeping an eye on us.  I don't remember any that I have read who posit the sort of curious glimpses that we have been observing for many decades, perhaps centuries, and perhaps even millennia.

There's a cable TV channel that exploits interest in these ideas with far out speculation on a regular basis.  I've met at least one person who is credulous enough to tune in and absorb some of that entertainment as "real".

(th)

#1040 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Settlement design » 2021-04-15 17:33:43

Well the need for steel is debatable:

https://www.euronews.com/2019/05/10/wat … nasa-prize

The winners of the NASA prize produced something that might work on Mars made from biodegradable and recyclable biopolymer basalt composite, which includes elements grown from crops.

Of course a key attractive feature here is the ease with such buildings can be put up using robot construction techniques. I've seen video of a Chinese company that can create these sorts of large house-like structures (for use on Earth) in under 48 hours.



Calliban wrote:

We will need a lot of steel on Mars.  Remember that every inhabited structure there will be a pressure vessel.  That includes any place where we grow food.  We have looked into using basalt fibre rope on Mars for tensile elements and it does show promise.  But it too requires high temperatures to melt the basalt before extruding it through a die.  About 1400°C from memory.  And the basalt fibres will attach to a steel frame, which will transfer load from window panels.  Hot rolled, low carbon alloy steels are excellent for continuous tensile and bending loads, because within elastic limits they have a forgiving stress cycle and tend not to creep.

Being able to produce steel using direct nuclear heat is hugely advantageous.  We still need to source hematite or some other pure iron oxide ore.  But with so much of the energy requirements met by direct fission heat, steel can become a cheap structural material.  It really needs to be cheap, as we are going to need a lot of it.

Temperatures of 1000°C are achievable using high temperature reactors.  It is a technical stretch, as stainless steel melts at 1400°C, but is achievable using triso fuel.  Actually, a pebble bed reactor using helium coolant could produce temperatures in that range using natural uranium as fuel.  The same pebble bed reactors using CO2 coolant could also generate electricity needed to make hydrogen and CO, using a direct S-CO2 cycle.  Two relatively compact nuclear power plants that both run on Martian non-enriched uranium.  The high temperature reactors lend themselves to natural reactivity control and radiant loss of decay heat.  Very simple systems, that should be quite easy to build in their entirety using materials found on Mars.

#1041 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2021-04-15 17:23:35

Crappy robot voices are always annoying! lol

This has got to be one of the most exciting launches of all!

If they can succeed with this new model then it's full steam ahead for Mars but if problems persist and we see fire followed by explosion again then it suggests the design has some fundamental flaws which may take a long time to address.

So hoping this flight is fully successful...well by fully I mean "doesn't end in an explosion".


Oldfart1939 wrote:

Musk states that SN 15 will fly next week.

Not one of my favorite links about SpaceX: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdH-VulltHI

#1042 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Aerial phenomena » 2021-04-15 17:19:29

I suppose my favourite interpretation at the moment is "limited contact".

In the modern world we are careful about contact with very primitive tribes. We know that contact can be lethal both physically and culturally for such tribes and so we try to limit it.  There is a tribe in the Andaman Islands which India knows all about but basically leaves to their own devices having only very limited contact with them. India could easily move in and occupy the islands but, purely out of ethical considerations, they don't.

So, it's certainly not a crazy hypothesis that (a) these photos, videos and reports are all genuine (b)  they evidence interest in us by an ET civilisation (c) their interest particularly in our big military exercises, nuclear weapon facilities and so on, is a benevolent interest...showing concern about whether we are getting close to all out NCB war on this planet (which could be a regular pattern seen across many planets at certain historical and technological periods) and (d) they may have some ethical code where they don't intervene unless it is clear civilisation is going to be wiped out on the planet or at least seriously damaged.

The suggestion that this presence has made itself known to senior officials in major governments around the world is also not an entirely mad hypothesis.  They may wish to make it known to us that our fleets and bases will be observed by them and that we should not assume they are our Earthly enemies. But they may wish to make it known that they are here and will intervene if anyone attempts to launch all out war.

#1043 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Aerial phenomena » 2021-04-15 17:07:13

Well it's an idea...if it was related to the quantum theory that the act of conscious observation collapses experiments, it might be the case that only non-conscious machines could time travel.

Speculation of course!

As you say, makes about as much sense as everything else...

But we seem certainly to have moved away from the days when aerial phenomena of this type could be dismissed as hallucinatory experiences.  Too much cross-confirmation by people and machines on very sophisticated naval vessels.

The photos of something entering the ocean at speed is very interesting.


Calliban wrote:

Some kind of super advanced drone aircraft perhaps?  Nothing made of meat, human or not, could survive the sort of high g's that the movement of these craft would exert.  I think we are dealing here with robots.  But are they human artifacts or non-human?  One theory that I heard floated back in the 90s was that UFOs were robotic craft built by human beings in the future and sent back in time to gather archaeological information.  It is about as plausible as any other explanation that I have heard, though admittedly far fetched.

#1044 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2021-04-15 14:39:01

What do I know - but looks like SN15 passed its cryo test...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWpyhXZNZAc

#1045 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Settlement design » 2021-04-15 14:33:06

How much steel do we need?

I think a better question might be: how far can we avoid using steel? 

It might make more sense to Mars cement, Mars concrete, and basalt for construction.

We can certainly cannibalise any abandoned Starships.

Great effort should be put into 99% recycling of steel.

Here's a helpful presentation.

http://www.marspapers.org/paper/Moss_2006_2_pres.pdf

What about the methane-electric arc method?

RobertDyck wrote:

You guys go on and on. Here's a question: how are you going to smelt steel? I have proposed the Direct Reduced Iron Method. It uses less heat. Requires grinding ore to fines, uses carbon monoxide and hydrogen to convert oxide ores to pure iron. Carbon from carbon monoxide is dissolved into the iron. Using pure CO requires less energy, but results in far too much carbon in the steel. Metal with that much carbon is brittle. Removing the carbon requires heating the metal to completely melt it, and bubbling oxygen through to burn off carbon. If you mix hydrogen with CO for the first step, that hydrogen also binds with oxygen from the ore, converting ore to metal. Result is steam, which doesn't dissolve in steel. Hydrogen takes longer and requires more energy to make, but if you get the balance right then the final product won't have too much carbon. Although this works at lower temperature, it still requires between 800°C and 1,200°C; usually between 900°C and 1,000°C. This method requires high grade ore with very few impurities, basically pure iron oxide such as hematite concretions. Iron produced this way still has to be processed further to eliminate final impurities to become steel.

So how are you going to produce that much heat? Enough to heat literally tonnes of ore to well over +900°C? One advantage of this method is temperature is hot but low enough that a nuclear reactor can directly produce the heat without melting the reactor. Any conversion of heat from a reactor to electricity, then electricity back to heat, is very inefficient. It's far more efficient to directly use the heat. Temperatures for the Direct Reduced Iron Method is below the melting temperature of steel. You could use exotic materials for the reactor such as nickel/chrome allow to withstand higher temperature, but the point is to use the heat directly.

So again, if you want to go solar, how are you going to smelt steel?

#1046 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Aerial phenomena » 2021-04-15 14:05:03

Indeed it is - makes you look forward to what might emerge in June of this year when the US authorities have to release the bulk of their files I believe. This may be part of the prep...

kbd512 wrote:

Louis,

Well...  I've never seen any military aircraft do some of the things these UFOs have done on camera.  Even if the propulsion and materials technology was capable of withstanding the forces involved in some of the maneuvers demonstrated, it would turn any human into jello.  If this isn't some kind of multi-spectral sensor trickery, then it's a level of technology far beyond anything I have any experience or knowledge of.

It's a real mystery. smile

#1047 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Settlement design » 2021-04-15 12:24:58

Labour is not "nearly free" in Portugal and they had the lowest price quuoted. One of the US schemes was below 2 cents as well.

The v low prices are in locations which have some of the best insolation on the planet, so that makes sense. Germany has some reasonable resources in the Alpine region but nothing as good as the Middle East, Portugal or SW USA.



kbd512 wrote:

In places where labor is nearly free, prices can be 2 cents per kWh.  The electricity prices per kWh, as paid by the rate payer, are NOT 2 cents in Germany.  They're at least triple what Americans pay.

No amount of government-sponsored market manipulation can change how much actual energy can be extracted from a kilo of Uranium or a liter of liquid hydrocarbon fuel or a square meter of solar panel erected in the sunniest locales on Earth for a given period of time.

The Chinese can and did (to weaken or eliminate overseas competition) sell steel below what it actually cost to produce their steel, in terms of raw energy input, but that doesn't mean such a practice is sustainable into perpetuity.  The Chinese will run out of money (energy) long before market demand is satisfied.  The moment they achieved their market share objective by cornering the market, they dramatically increased their prices to triple what they were before.  Of course it was all driven by greed, but they also had to increase prices in order to recoup their losses, in order to remain solvent.  After their stunt, other companies formed to domestically produce or recycle steel at lower prices using more efficient production processes, so that set a new market cap on how much the Chinese could charge for steel without driving their customers towards their new competitors.  The entire concept behind "economy" has always been devising the most efficient organization and employment of capital / labor / resources for delivering a good or service that paying customers actually want to buy.

In a market that isn't being manipulated by governments or corporations run amok, then prices (economization) will determine that if every other steel maker can produce steel for 2kWh/kg, but one particular company's production process is consuming 20kWh/kg, then that company or their current steel production process dies a natural death by being priced out of competition with all the other steel makers.  In that way, capital / labor / resources (one of them being energy) is conserved for other more productive uses.  That is how a normally functioning economy not being manipulated by governments works.  It also drives innovation to continually improve upon what was done previously, in order to deliver the same or substantially similar product for less energy and ultimately money.

If it takes 2 to 8 years for energy payback on a square meter of solar panels, here on Earth, then 18 to 12 years of energy output can be devoted to any other purpose.  If the energy production technology will be sustained into the future, then an additional 2 to 8 years of energy production payback will be devoted to producing new solar panels to sustain the output of solar power.  Mars receives half, 43% actually, as much solar radiation, so the panels used there either have to be twice as efficient or their energy payback time period doubles.

If it takes closer to 8 years than 2 years to achieve energy payback, but the panels degrade and produce less power over time, then we run into an ultimately unsolvable problem of energy payback duration being longer than the period of time that the solar panels can continue producing energy in a practical way.

The solar panel "game" is a very clever market manipulation that says, "Short term investment money is cheap right now, so we're going to take advantage of that fact by producing a product we know will be replaced in 20 years, and then 20 years from now when money is more expensive, the customer simply has to pay more money to continue receiving electricity."  There is, of course, a serious problem with that strategy.  It relies upon the availability of cheap investment money and government-sponsored market manipulation.  If the governments or the rate paying customers stop playing that game, then the jig is up, and suddenly energy becomes a lot more expensive and scarce.  We can see how well that strategy worked, longer-term, from the example of Germany, where electricity rates paid by their rate payers or 3 to 4 times higher than they are in the US.  People can always economize on energy usage, but only to a point.  After that point, it's just deprivation in service to ideology.  All of the money that could have been used for other useful purposes was and is tied up in producing enough energy to meet demand.  In France, there were / are riots over their government's market manipulations, and unrest is growing elsewhere as well.

Anyway, it takes very contorted ideologically-motivated thinking to refuse to acknowledge how a 100-to-1 energy payback is better than a 10-to-1 or 5-to-1 energy payback.  If wind and solar truly were producing abundant and cheap energy, then the prices for every other good or service using wind and solar energy should be falling, but they're not.  This is just the latest of an endless series of manipulative schemes to extract more and more money from a captive market that needs energy, little different than the market manipulations of OPEC or other special interests.

#1049 Interplanetary transportation » Aerial phenomena » 2021-04-15 10:13:41

louis
Replies: 36

What to make of this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OTaxiBE-TQ

We could sure do with their transportation systems!

#1050 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Settlement design » 2021-04-15 10:08:05

Good luck with going to your bank and saying you've got this commercial project that needs loan funding and that you are prepared to pay 0%. A Virgin Start Up loan is currently at 6%.

Regarding methane power generation, the infrastructure is already there in the UK since we generate so much of our electric power from methane. So you would not have to build the plant.

Calliban wrote:

Louis, traditionally, the cost of renewable energy projects was dominated by capital costs - about 90% of total lifetime cost.  Before 2008, when interest rates were something like 5%, that meant that 90% of the cost of a solar kWh was capital repayments and interest.  Then interest rates were reduced to zero, following the Great Recession, where they have remained ever since.  Now, a company can sit on that huge capital expense, pay practically nothing in interest and wait for inflation to reduce the value of the outstanding debt by 3% per year.  Under those conditions, I am not surprised that some solar arrays can generate at 2c/kWh.  My question is, what happens when interest rates return to normal?  Eventually, they will.  Are we going to be left with a lot of very expensive electricity generation and having to pay through the nose, or will the owners of that infrastructure go bankrupt, taking their bad debts with them?  I think we need to know.

When it comes to energy storage, everyone seems to think that with enough technology, someone will pull a rabbit out of a hat.  The problem it that we do already have energy storage technologies.  There is nothing to stop a utility building an electrolysis plant next to a CCGT and using renewable electricity to carry out electrolysis to produce hydrogen that would be stored in a tank and burned in the CCGT.  The problem is that 'storage' as you put it, really means building a whole other power station to generate power when the wind stops blowing.  It means more embodied energy and more cost and the process is inefficient.  The storage problem has already been solved.  It is just that no one likes the solution.  It isn't helpful.

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