New Mars Forums

Official discussion forum of The Mars Society and MarsNews.com

You are not logged in.

Announcement

Announcement: This forum is accepting new registrations via email. Please see Recruiting Topic for additional information. Write newmarsmember[at_symbol]gmail.com.

#76 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Altair - Lunar Lander (LSAM) - status » 2008-03-11 08:40:11

Only assuming you want to use one rocket.

yes, you can launch a 35 mT payload with TWO Ares-5, but, while a bigger Ares-5 needs only to pay $40M for an extra SRB, $20M for an extra RS-68 and $10M for a bigger tank, launch a second 17 mT payload needs a brand new rocket ...that means TWICE the price rather than just a 20% extra-costs on a single (bigger) rocket... also, you can launch a 35 mT payload with two rockets if that payload can be "sliced" in two parts, but, if you want or need to launch a bigger, one piece, module, you can't

They are going to have to switch to a horizontal lander design at some point however to do so. Some of the more fleshed out designs already have, which really makes me wonder why they are bothering with all these "requirement studies" now. Either they knew what they needed then, and are wasting time now, or didn't and those previous designs are rubbish.

yes, it's really incredible (and unclear) WHY they study (and publish) a lander they'll never build!

I agree about the horizontal design, and, in september 2005, I've also suggested (on my website and on uplink) to launch a 28+ mT "three-seats" horizontal lunar lander with a crewless Space Shuttle, then, I've deleted the small note in my article when I've understood that NASA was (and still is) determined to retire the Shuttles (however, I hope they'll change their plan and use the Shuttles, at least, as unmanned cargo, to fill the gap between 2010 and 2016)

.

#77 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Altair - Lunar Lander (LSAM) - status » 2008-03-10 19:26:12

.

I've just updated my Altair article with new data and images, so, it now is a true and detailed analysis of the ESAS lunar lander:

http://www.ghostnasa.com/posts/025badaltair.html

also (following the cIclops suggestion) I've added an evaluation (by comparison with the Orion) of the real dimensions of the Altair's crew cabin:


025badaltair4.jpg

.

#78 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Altair - Lunar Lander (LSAM) - status » 2008-03-10 07:32:22

...got a 10m x 30m faring to work with...

the problem is not the dimensions of the cargo but it's payload's mass, that, a too little and underpowered Ares-5, limits to just 17 mT, no matter the shape of the cargo

.

#79 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV) - ESA ISS cargo carrier » 2008-03-09 01:45:39

Griffin has said in testimony to Congress that the cost is about $10B. GAO don't understand the technology, they overestimate everything, and they seem to work in inflated future dollars.

assuming the Ares-1 will fly... $10 billion of R&D costs ALREADY too much for a rocket that will carry (IF will carry) just 30% more payload than Ariane5 or 20% more than a Delta IV Heavy

apart thee fact that all rationally driven company or agency should use the rocket that already exist rather than build a new one (at very high costs) maybe using two of them for bigger payload, I believe GAO may be right for, at least, two reasons:

1. the experience says us that nearly all space programs in all countries goes soon in big time delays and costs overrun

2. the knowlenge of ECONOMY (not of technology) is (exactly) those they need (and have) to evaluate costs' growt

.

#80 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV) - ESA ISS cargo carrier » 2008-03-09 01:35:08

Nor does the GAO think long term about how many Ares-I parts will be reused for Ares-V.

only the SRB-5 (that is the biggest part in weight but the smallest in value) and it's not 100% they can use it on the Ares-5 since, official claims, say it's undepowered, so, probably three standard SRB will be used to add some extra-power to a flawed design (yes, the Ares-5 should use also the J-2X but in a completely different stage, then ZERO savings on R&D costs)

.

#81 Re: Interplanetary transportation » in my opinion both Ares-I and Ares-V could NEVER fly once!!! » 2008-03-08 17:40:43

...except many people working for SpaceX are former NASA engineers, and they borrowed engine designs from Apollo, and they use US government facilities to launch their rockets from... *coughs*

that's true, but in a (now) open and global market, the engineers may come from many companies and many countries

.

#82 Re: Interplanetary transportation » in my opinion both Ares-I and Ares-V could NEVER fly once!!! » 2008-03-08 17:37:54

...much as I see you claim Google ... your moon rover idea...

not exactly... the "moonrover PRIZE" idea... also, in my ghostNASA article I give enough EVIDENCES of my claims!
however, do you not feel strange that all them "invent" the same things I suggest MONTHS or YEARS after me, rather than, months or years BEFORE me? ...if they are so expert and smart, that should NEVER happen... smile

But I'm willing to state that NASA's eventual launch design will look much more like its current plans than any amalgamation of your modifications.

they've already put some big "patches" on several big "holes" of the early ESAS plan... like the change of the order of launch between Ares-1 and Ares-5 to avoid the risk of missions' fail due to a "sum of delays" (another problem I've evidenced in 2006 in my articles and posts, then they have "fixed" now)
of course, they can use the current architecture and hardware with no change, but going towards POOR missions and too much risk of failure

I wager that NASA's Ares-I will be operational before any private alt-space type entity is able to put a 20MT payload in orbit.  Indeed I'd be willing to wager that the Ares-I will beat pretty much all other rockets in its class (20-25MT) to orbit with the possible exception of the Chinese Long March 5.

I agree that Ares-1 could fly (IF it can fly...) before a similar new.space rocket, but not at the same price, that, since, it's very high shared R&D costs ALREADY put it out of market, so, assuming it will fly first (around 2016 or so) it will be retired within two-three years in favor of a commercial rocket... the future will see many actors and more competition, then, NASA must adapt itself to the new scenario... these are the market's laws (that are STRONGER than physic's laws!) and not even NASA can change them

.

#83 Re: Interplanetary transportation » in my opinion both Ares-I and Ares-V could NEVER fly once!!! » 2008-03-08 17:12:47

In such a case is it fair to say it is still an alt-space endevor?  After all NASA contracted out large parts of the design/construction of its orbital vehicles to these same firms.

yes, it's not a "pure new.space" effort, however, the difference is not the contractor but the CUSTOMER and the the PURPOSE of the product... if the customer (Bigelow or others) is a private company that use the rocket to launch tourists, then, we can consider it a new.space enterprise

Even with vastly cheaper rockets, space is unlikely to be a profitable endeavor.

the peoples who can pay a so expensive tickets are several thousand (that, maybe, are not all brave enough to do a fly in space...) however, I agree that many cheap rockets can't change so much this scenario unless a small, simple, cheap, safe and 1000+ times reusable new Shuttle will be built, then, fly in space, will be (nearly) like today's airline flights

I'm referring to the Ares-I as currently designed by NASA.

well, I think that the current designed Ares-1 can't fly as is but needs DEEP changes, not just a few "adjustment" to the basic design

.

#84 Re: Interplanetary transportation » in my opinion both Ares-I and Ares-V could NEVER fly once!!! » 2008-03-08 16:56:16

...a bit early to say that the J-2X absolutely will not be ready...

it seems that Orion and the new SRB should be ready around 2012-2013 and (probably) also the end of the J-2X R&D so, I suppose the delay that shifts the first manned launch to 2016 could be due to man-rate and mass produce the J-2X, test the full rocket, etc.

Well its taken SpaceX about 5 years to get where they are today.

yes, but they started from ZERO experience, ZERO engineers, ZERO infrastructures, etc... just look at how private industries grow... they start slow, then, having enough funds and the right peoples, do better things in half or less time than government agencies, also, the first manned Orion launch will be in 2016 (+ further delays) so, they (not only SpaceX but all present and future new.space companies) have up to NINE years to reach their goal... last, the main new.space companies' goal isn't launch a manned capsule before NASA (despite, in nine years, they can) but launch it at a LOWER price, so, assuming the Orion will fly first in 2016, what NASA could/must/will do if one or more private companies will offer the SAME "service" in 2018 at (e.g.) 20% the price (including the, very high in NASA stndards, fixed yearly earth-support/assembly costs) of the Orion/Ares-1 duo? ...do you think they must still use their own capsule and launcher (paying FIVE times the price!) or that (both) the Congress and the US taxpayer will force NASA to pension (both) Orion and Ares-1 and use ONLY the 80% cheaper commercial hardware? I suppose that NASA don't build the computers they use since the commercial computers (nearly all of them "Made in China"...) are better and cheaper... well, I believe that, soon or later, that will happen also with rockets and capsules... smile

.

#85 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Altair - Lunar Lander (LSAM) - status » 2008-03-07 16:27:45

I was suggesting they include the things I mentioned so that the landing site could remain functional well after the primary manned phase ended, and perhaps contribute to follow up missions.

I agree if that will made just as experiments, while, to be true that all astronauts will survive a bad contingency, the only 100% safe way is to add enough life support for that comtingency on ALL Altair then keep a second unmanned Altair, atop its Ares-5, ready to fly for rescue

.

#86 Re: Interplanetary transportation » in my opinion both Ares-I and Ares-V could NEVER fly once!!! » 2008-03-07 16:20:17

COTS should have ramjets/N2H4/LOX lower stage, with a LH2/LOX upper stage.

a flyback 1st stage or booster could be a good solution (that was under study at NASA for the Shuttle, at ESA for the Ariane5 and at a small space company founded by Buzz Aldrin) ONLY if cheaper than a traditional, unwunged and expendable rocket

unfortunately, this is only a concept now (with just a few experiments made at NASA, Australia and India) and the COTS companies have not enough funds and experience to do that... just look at the problem SpaceX has to be 100% successful in the first rocket launch

.

#87 Re: Interplanetary transportation » in my opinion both Ares-I and Ares-V could NEVER fly once!!! » 2008-03-07 16:13:15

...put more hopes on SpaceX and Orbital...

I agree that SpaceX and Orbital are the most professional new.space companies (despite it's a little hard to call Orbital a "new.space" company since it builds and sells rockets to US government agencies from decades)

however, if the new.space companies will succeed to launch manned capsules with their own rockets (and bring back the astronauts safely) before the first manned Orion/Ares-1 launch, it will be 30% their own merit and 70% due to the very long (and delayed) Ares-1 R&D timeline

.

#88 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Altair - Lunar Lander (LSAM) - status » 2008-03-07 16:02:14

If theres two things we can be reasonably sure of, theres plenty of silicates that can be heated and melted into bricks for radiation and micrometeorite shielding, and such reaction will release oxygen that we can collect.

true, but they can just do some experiments in the early mission (to gather real data and experience for future projects) NOT base their life on ISRU oxygen from early days... a moon missions already is a BIG risk to add risks on risks

.

#89 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Altair - Lunar Lander (LSAM) - status » 2008-03-07 15:52:47

Compared to ESA's Ariane V that you are bombastic over the Ares V is a MONSTER that ESA won't be matching for decades to come.

I've suggested to use the Ariane5 ONLY to save the time and money the Ares-1 needs to fly (assuming it can...) and, yes, the underpowered Ares-5 will be a monster compared with the Arane5 also I agree that Europe will never spend enough money or will be enough brave to build an Ares-5 nor (:)) start a manned program...  sad

...however like Cyclops says it's more likely to work the other way around - a habitat would be landed first and then a crewed Altair makes the scene.  Considering NASA is opting not just for sortie missions but building up an outpost as one of its top prorities don't throw out what Cyclops said about a habitat being landed there.

that's exactly what I've suggested (SEVEN months BEFORE the NASA change of the lunar missions' architecture from "sortie first" to "outpost first" announced in december 2006...) in this spam-article:

http://www.gaetanomarano.it/articles/007arianeX.html

unfortunately, the "sortie" version of Altair still is in the NASA documents, and, however, sortie or outpost, the Altair crew cabin always looks TOO LITTLE for a crew of four!

.

#90 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Altair - Lunar Lander (LSAM) - status » 2008-03-07 15:37:12

...no decisions have been made yet. This whole project is in pre phase A study...

that's true, but they talk, write, calculate and publish them as things to build next week... if the lander is only in the phase of "concept" then, develop and publish only the various concepts... WHY do they develop and publish so detailed data about the Ares-5 and Altair, if they are aware that EVERYTHING will be changed soon?

.

#91 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Altair - Lunar Lander (LSAM) - status » 2008-03-07 15:28:19

There are no "facts" yet...

the facts you want are in documents and images you post, the facts are in the Altair dimensions and in the Ares-5 specs, the facts are in the (NASA advanced planning manager and former Apollo program rocket engineer) John Sumrall's interview... there are PLENTY of FACTS for those who (really) WANT to "see" them... the facts are that THIS Ares-5 design has not enough power for the job (surely NOT for a "good/best" job) ...as I've repeated...

.

#92 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Altair - Lunar Lander (LSAM) - status » 2008-03-07 15:20:38

...a excavator/rover, and a small ISRU to create bake bricks to cover the inflatable and collect the oxygen, suddenly you've got something that can grow on its own long after the crew leaves...

a lunar mission is not a Junior Woodchucks' trip in the forest... smile ...everything MUST be planned in details years before a lift-off and (both) the lander and its launcher MUST have the capability to accomplish the full missions (including a large life support redundancy) and NOT hope to find oxigen, water and food on the moon... smile

.

#93 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Altair - Lunar Lander (LSAM) - status » 2008-03-07 11:11:32

.

the true reality of facts is that, the Altair, actually IS too little since the Ares-5 has a too little max payload!

that's why I've ALWAYS said in latest two years (on my website and blog and on space forums) that the current Ares-5 is underpowered and its "130 mT payload" target is too little, then suggested to develop a 200+ mT cargo launcher)

.

#94 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Altair - Lunar Lander (LSAM) - status » 2008-03-07 11:07:21

The current campaign plan is to buildup the Outpost first, sorties missions will happen later probably to the other pole and farside. Altair will be able to support short duration sortie missions for 28 surface days (4 crew for 7 days). This would be more than all of the surface time for the entire Apollo project. What are "emergency NOR margins"?

I've seen the images of (both) sortie and outpost versions of the Altair, that (both) have the same crew cabin (with the sortie version that has the airlock module) that's also since they can't build two different versions, one of which with a larger crew cabin a bigger descent-stage, etc.

"emergency" may happen if (e.g.) the ascent stage won't work... with one-two month life support the astronauts can be saved sending a second, remote-controlled, rescue-Altair, while, with just a couple of days of life support "redundancy" the astronauts are DEAD

extra "margins" are those the astronauts can use for better and longer-than-7-days lunar missions, rather than just four times the exploration days of Apollo (2 astronauts x 3-4 days max)

.

#95 Re: Interplanetary transportation » in my opinion both Ares-I and Ares-V could NEVER fly once!!! » 2008-03-07 10:53:40

By the way, an English hint: "privates" means sex organs.  :oops:  lol  Use private companies or "independents".

thanks for your remark... smile ...sometimes my articles and posts are a little HARD, but not SO "hard"... smile

.

#96 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Altair - Lunar Lander (LSAM) - status » 2008-03-07 10:48:14

Checkout the image above showing Orion and Altair, Orion is 5m in diameter that would make the Altair ascent module about 3m in diameter by about 4m in length (assuming that drawing is to scale)

done, but, measuring it with a pixel-ruler, the Altair crew cabin results no bigger than 1.8-2 m. in diameter by 2-2.5 m. in lenght... also, remember that these are the EXTERNAL dimensions inclusive of the LIDS docking port and the thick pressurization and protection structure... just add the spacesuits, the EVA support packs, the flights' control panels, four seats (if any) four beds (if any) the 7-days life support, a toilet (if any) etc... so, where is the space for the astronauts?

.

#97 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Altair - Lunar Lander (LSAM) - status » 2008-03-07 10:38:16

Altair's function is to put  crew and cargo on the lunar surface and return crew back to Orion waiting in LLO. That's all it does. The Outpost will be waiting on the surface to provide life support and facilities for the crew.

not in the early years, when they (still) want to launch only a dozen sortie missions, then, the Altair will be the place where the astronauts will live and work on for longer time than Orion, so, it's unclear why it must be so little, without life support redundancy for emergency NOR margins for extended missions' duration ... the only logical reason of this (bad) choice may reside in a too little and underpowered Ares-5 that doesn't allow to carry much more than THIS Altair

.

#98 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Ares V (CaLV) - status » 2008-03-07 04:09:42

These are not detailed plans, they would fill gigabytes of documents and CAD databases.

they look enough "detailed" for a rocket that must/will be COMPLETELY different... smile

.

#99 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Ares V (CaLV) - status » 2008-03-07 04:04:22

..."refining the design"...

a really gentle and "underpowered" (like both Ares) say for a space hardware that needs DEEP changes

...what will actually be built ... will be different than what you see today...

that's is SURE for me!

...DIRECT plan sound a little better...

despite I've suggested it FOUR months BEFORE (with my FAST-SLV article) the (FAST-SLV-like but FOUR months LATER) "Direct" is a dead end concept, no matter how big the Direct-lobby is and how many Direct-supporters runs the web... the Orion needs a rocket also for orbital missions, so, the Ares-1 is a possible solution and may work, if CHANGED from the current design to a 4-segments SRB + J-2Y superengine... this change is, also, absolutely necessary, since the twin-5-seg.SRB Ares-5 is underpowered and may need three-four standard SRB and two J-2X (or one J-2Y) to carry the planned payload (or more, that's always is better)

change the rocket(s) needs a deep change of the missions' architectures, a thing seems they don't want to do

.

#100 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Ares V (CaLV) - status » 2008-03-07 03:50:52

First gaetanomarano you have not said why changing the Loiter Time from 14 to 4 days matters so I will...

sorry, but I've written a full article about this problem in 2006 (when the Loiter Time was planned to be 95 days!) and the risk of several missions' failures due to a "sum of delays", also, the reduced Loiter Time seems mainly due to avoid too much LOX and LH2 boil off with so big tanks

.

Board footer

Powered by FluxBB