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That photo of the Rover "dying" through lack of insolation is a fake photo. It was admitted it was an artist's rendering. There has never been total obscurity of the sun during a dust storm on Mars. If I'm wrong presumably you can provide a link to show I am wrong.
We really need to stop using the Solar irradiance (W/m2) of Mars 586.2 W/m2 as its only number as thats mid summer and its only going to go down as winter approaches.. way down and a dirt covered panel is not going to cut it....
13 Oct 2020 – Mars at opposition
30 Nov 2022 – Mars at perigee
07 Dec 2022 – Mars at opposition
12 Jan 2025 – Mars at perigee
https://in-the-sky.org/imagedump/book/mars_marsCircles.pnghttp://davidaroffman.com/images/low_mon … 3_2020.png
https://ttu-ir.tdl.org/bitstream/handle … 17_175.pdf
Its believed that the mars co2 frost is partly to cause for the levels of dust which occur in the air.
https://mars.nasa.gov/system/resources/detail_files/7897_co2-carbon-dioxide-frost-form-polar-mars-orbiter-pia20758-full2.jpghttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a … 3515000044
https://eos.org/wp-content/uploads/2020 … 0-wide.png
power level drop shows how the panels would see the restricting dust
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-6tJFJ3FTy-4/U … -16+AM.jpgimages of the dust rom the dying rover
https://d2pn8kiwq2w21t.cloudfront.net/i … h-1024.jpgnotice the size of the sun being blocked...
Well that sentence could be improved by a "will" before "never" because of course up till now small rovers have to shut down during dust storms to protect their energy systems if insolation falls to a low point. But a sizeable PV system on Mars will never be in the position of failing to produce any energy during a dust storm. There's a lot of confusion around this topic with people assuming that increased solar obscurity (which does not translate directly to reduced insolation on the same scale) , reduction in direct insolation (obviously during a dust storm there is a lot more ambient light which compensates), dust on PV panels reducing output (yes, but a large PV system will have dust clearance systems) and the length of dust storms (dust storms only produces periods of very low insolation for a few sols, even if their duration is over months) means PV generation collapses completely.
There is some evidence that dust storms have occasionally reduced insolation to 10% of normal levels though the peak is more normally around 20%. At no time has the reduction been to 0%.
A PV system operating on Mars that has to power a propellant plant facility (say 1MW) can afford to go down to 10% of normal output and still be able to power a base and ensure the survival of humans without any additional emergency energy input.
"Dust storms never completely prevent PV energy generation."
False.
Not sure radiation is relevant to this thread but Mars buildings with regolith cover will afford much greater protection than on the ISS.
Dust storms never completely prevent PV energy generation. Apart from a few days at the beginning dust storms soon settle around the 40% of normal mark for insolation. You adjust your system accordingly and use some of your methane and oxygen generation as emergency power if necessary. But having looked at this in depth, it should never be necessary. The main impact is you will have something of a shortfall in methane and oxygen production - so you either have to scale up your facility or manufacture for a longer period than might otherwise be the case. It's really only going to be a problem for the first couple of missions.
Solar energy is a free, it will be around for billions of years, a near inexhaustible infinite almost limitless resource, yet harnessing it is a relatively new idea.
Solar irradiance (W/m2) Mars 586.2 Earth 1361.0 Ratio 0.431
https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/f … sfact.htmlIssues of Living....fixing your solar panels?
How Bad is the Radiation on Mars?
https://www.universetoday.com/14979/mars-radiation1/
Over the course of about 18 months, the Mars Odyssey probe detected ongoing radiation levels which are 2.5 times higher than what astronauts experience on the International Space Station – 22 millirads per day, which works out to 8000 millirads (8 rads) per year. The spacecraft also detected 2 solar proton events, where radiation levels peaked at about 2,000 millirads in a day, and a few other events that got up to about 100 millirads.Dust Storms???
On Mars an issue could arise too Much Mars Dust and Too Little Power?NASA’s Mars Lander Cleaned Sand Off Its Solar Panels Using More Sand
https://www.extremetech.com/extreme/323 … -more-sand
Thanks - that's helpful!
I think there is a danger of thinking this is a more difficult problem than it will be in reality.
1. The landing site will be chosen for being under 5% gradient over a large area.
2. The landing area will be surveyed closely by satellite.
3. Robot Starships will land before human passenger Starships.
4. There is no wind force on Mars that could blow over a Starship standing on a less than 5% gradient.
5. There will be lots of test landings on Mars analogue surfaces on Earth. Much will be learned from that.
6. The human landers can be given some ballast, or the cargo packed in such a way, so as to improve stability.
How the legs issue will be resolved will be fascinating!
I am more concerned about the launch to Earth. So much could go wrong in filling propellant tanks...maintenance won't be easy...and how many testing procedures can you run on Mars compared with Earth (I doubt we can replicate them all).
These are the landing legs of the Falcon 9 at launch
https://i.imgur.com/UwzAzpY.pngHow they appear once opened
https://www.cgstudio.com/imgd/l/39/5a50 … egs_08.jpghttps://www.cgstudio.com/imgd/l/34/5a50 … egs_07.jpg
Here is the math for a stable landing for these legs
I'd say that thinking it is impossible to manage AI safely is a bit of a counsel of despair. This is where we need to show our human intelligence and creativity.
1. In the current era and for say the next hundred years, AI is going to be fundamentally dependent upon computer power. The idea of AI becoming some total omniscient unified presence seems to me unlikely because that would require some new type of technological platform beyond what we recognise as computers. Also I am sceptical about whether AI can leapfrog human intelligence. Yes, I can see AI will be able to discover some exotic chemical compounds because it can work across the whole of chemsitry fast and on many levels. But how likely is it that AI will come up with a convincing cosmological theory that trounces all those theories produced by our Nobel Prize winners? I don't think it's likely, but I guess we will see. I suspect that they will just come up with rival theories, no more and no less persuasive than most human ones. When you read about how some of our top mathematicians "think" you realise that they cannot explain it in rational terms. There is a huge amount of intuition. Some genius mathematicians "see" numbers as a giant landscape in their mind which they rove over. For us non-mathematically minded mortals it's difficult to understand how they think. There is as yet no evidence that AI could replicate that kind of intuition.
2. We can build barriers to what I would call "Invasive" AI. We already have some robot doctors (based on the HOLMES computer I think) that can diagnose an individual's symptoms better than your average human doctor and we have some robot surgery taking place already. We need rules in place that prevent Invasive AI. So, for instance, there might be a rule that all reports on an individual human's health have to be in the form of a non AI file. A robot surgeon can only act on the basis of that file, not through direct contact with the AI general practitioner. How you would close off a whole transport system with self-drive vehicles and GPS and all the rest so it cannot be taken over by mad AI is obviously more problematic but in principle might involve a similar approach.
3. The barriers and safeguards need to be established across the whole field of human activity. That's the way I would see it - billions of "gates" installed to stop Invasive AI.
4. We need special conventions on human-computer interfaces. These do need to be limited unless you don't care about humans being turned into robots.
5. You probably need the equivalent of an AI Control Police to identify threats and make interventions.
6. You of course need international agreement to make this work. It's not going to work if North Korea is using AI to build a human-computer invincible AI army, for instance. Musk might be pessimistic about the chances of getting AI controls to work on Earth which is one reason why he sees settling Mars as an urgent project.
How about combining the current collapsible legs with three stabilisers - a hinged steel construction (a bit like a sideways ladder) that would come down immediately on landing, forming an outward V (locked into place) with the lower side of the V resting on the surface - not weight bearing but stabilising, preventing any toppling. I'm thinking maybe 4 metres long on the surface and 8 metres high when folded against the side of the rocket. So three (or 4 or 5 ) of those.
People sometimes assume Musk is an AI enthusiast. He's actually someone who has considered the subject in depth and knows there are great dangers ahead. I believe he wants to humanity to devise ways to use AI safely.
Amazing technology!
On Mars you might need some sort of construction cover so that the water you apply doesn't freeze but otherwise it does seem a real contender. It might also be a cheap way of making air locks on Mars without having to produce large steel structures. Maybe even for air lock doors you could use this material within a steel frame?
This technology could prove of exceptional value on Mars.
Here is an option that could be completed on day one
http://www.tetex.com/inflatable-concret … -shelters/
It's not quite true they don't pollute at all. Because of the increased mass of an EV (down to the battery) tyre wear is much greater than IC vehicles.
https://www.emissionsanalytics.com/news … -emissions
Tyre pollutants are actually one of the worst types of pollutants.
This is one reason why I think it is vital we move to electric induction roads so battery weight in EVs can be massively reduced.
Just a comment regarding Tesla. I live in a Northern Colorado community of ~ 65,000 plus more rurally in the area. There is a new dealership in town: Tesla. My only comment about the downside is the range of EVs in the Mountain West. Upside, they are quiet and don't pollute at all.
I would assume the rig will have a crane in place. So I would expect that after construction the rocket would be craned onto a barge where it would be secured by some arrangement similar to the rocket catcher. It would then be towed by tug to the rig where the rig crane would lift it on to the patform.
For SpaceNut re #12
Sure making the fuel from the sea water may be possible but getting the BFR first stage to the oil rig platform is a problem.
OK ... You stumped me !!! Why is getting the Super Heavy first stage to the platform a problem?
Suggestion: Try thinking like Elon! We can only guess of course, but the exercise should help us to stretch a bit.
(th)
Orbital fuelling technology is probably the main obstacle to a Mars Mission in 2022 in as much as it's never been done before though pumps and similar have of course been much used. I don't think accurate alignment of the 2 ships would be a problem. Accurate alignment of engines might be more difficult. Presumably powerful magnets could help.
Presumably for Earth launch the Starships can be fuelled from barges pulling alongside the rigs. The rigs might well have room for tanks.
Lets play devils advocate saying that it could launch and land never to return once it touches down something in the future.
A sea launch ups the level of launches of fuel for the starship to reload with which is on the order of 5 to 7 starships full for payload...
Sure making the fuel from the sea water may be possible but getting the BFR first stage to the oil rig platform is a problem.
A refueling in space of liquid methane and lox have never been done let alone a mating system from one starship to another starship to at makes them possible as loading of the first ones fuel then other might be a problem....
Fusion is one of those technologies that we are always told is 20 years away.
On the other hand I think it is one of those technologies where there could be a sudden breakthrough. I find the Low Energy Nuclear Reaction (LENR) type technologies more interesting.
People have begun looking into air turbulence on and around motorways and it is quite significant in energy terms. Not suprisingly when you think that a large part of the energy of moving a vehicle forward involves pushing air out of the way. If we had electric roads for instance and an efficient means of capturing the air turbulence energy and then returning it to the electric roads (induction charging of EV batteries) that make a real contribution. The good thing about motorway air turbulence is that it is there all the time and is not dependent on the wind.
There is nothing impossible about recovering energy from ship bow waves or indeed from traffic induced air currents. The point is not whether it is possible or not in some idealised or abstract situation. It is more a question as to whether it is desirable compared to other options, when the energy return is compared to the energy and money that need to be invested to make it work. Designing a vehicle based on new propulsion technology is horribly complicated. A balanced design needs to balance capital cost, engineering complexity, ease of maintenance, reliability, down time, operating cost (both fuel and parts replacement), safety, speed, weight, comfort, aesthetics, range and so on. Hopefully, at the end of the design process, you have a product that enough people want to buy and can afford to buy, for you to have a market that covers initial investment costs. Plenty of good ideas have ended up going nowhere, because they failed to achieve the best balance of customer needs. Nothing about the design process is simple. And the fact that some idea or other may work at some level, provides no guarantee of success unless it can provide a definite lifetime performance advantage at a competitive cost, without pushing up things like operating cost, weight or reducing system reliability. This is why no one is using wave powered ships. It is why wind powered cargo ships belong to history (at least for the time being). These things end up failing - either they are too slow, too unreliable, too labour intensive, etc. Getting them to work at some functional level provides no guarantee of success.
Musk's 2022 announcement is getting quite a lot of interest from the MSM.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech … -2022.html
I have a theory about this. I reckon that following Kamala Harris's appointment to head up the National Space Council, Musk is aware of an attempt to derail his Mars colonisation plans and he has therefore decided to "go early" with some sort of Mars shot to get public opinion onside and so prevent the plot succeeding. It seems extremely odd to me that he should suddenly announce this isolated Mars shot ahead of the real mission. While it could add something, it's more likely to be a diversion from a thousand tasks that need careful attention.
The reference to wave energy was the question of whether you can use the energy from the bow wave of your own ship to add to propulsion. Many commenters I found disputed you could even though to me it's pretty obvious you can. It might be marginal but you could add to your speed. I recall now that the discussion grew out of an earlier discussion about whether lorries could capture some of the energy from their own air turbulence to add to the power and speed of the vehicle. Again , I think the answer is yes.
Good video. Remember that wind speed increases with height. The propeller mounted on top of the vehicle is exposed to a higher wind speed than the drag sock mounted on the fuselage. The fuselage is travelling through a turbulent boundary layer, whereas the propeller is at least partially raised above the boundary layer. Hence, it appears that the vehicle is moving faster than the wind, which it is, if you measure the wind speed within the boundary layer close to the ground. But not if you measure the wind speed at the height of the propeller. The propeller is in this instance functioning as a sail.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boundary_layerThe analogy to tacking is not strictly appropriate - the effect being observed here is due to increasing wind speed with height. Though you could conceivably tack with a land sail vehicle. The speed can in fact exceed the speed of the wind (though not dramatically), provided that excess drag and friction are both kept low. The concept does not in any way violate the conservation of energy. The kinetic energy gained by the vehicle is exactly equal to the kinetic energy lost by the air, plus some turbulent energy losses that will ultimately raise air temperature. I'm not quite sure where the reference to wave power comes into this.
The problem with powering oceanic vessels with the wind (or waves) is limited speed. Both concepts work from a purely mechanical viewpoint and indeed the former conveyed most of the world's long distance freight before the development of steam engines. But within a few decades of the development of coal powered steam ships, wind had all but disappeared as a practical energy source for long distance freight and passenger transportation. Why? The same economic forces that resulted in the rapid phase out of wind, hinder is reintroduction today. Low speed. Practical speed for a sailing vessel is in fact only a fraction of wind speed, due to the drag acting on the hull and the limit of thrust impulse that can be applied as a fraction of buoyant forces - thrust exerts a turning force that acts to push the keel under water.
Reducing speed has a very strong negative impact on transport economics, because the fixed capital costs and operating costs of the ship, must be amortised over a smaller number of tonne-miles or passenger miles delivered annually. Revenue is therefore proportional to average speed. Given that profit is only a small proportion of revenue, a small decline in average speed will seriously eat into profitability. Using wind will of course eliminate fuel costs. But for that advantage to outweigh the increase in other operating costs and capital costs, would suggest that fuel costs would need to be high indeed for wind power to break even.
One way of mitigating this is kite power. Wind speed increases with height, due to boundary layer effects. A kite can therefore access wind speeds far above those experienced by ordinary sails. We could use this to augment propulsion in diesel powered ships right now - it has been talked about since the 70s. Also, the kite does not need to be mounted to a tall mast, so the turning moment isn't as limiting. I'm not sure if it is practical to tack with a kite sail.
I am amazed you could grow grapes in Winnipeg! lol Maybe that's where the Vikings' Vinland really was!
louis wrote:I had some mead once - did I mention that before? An acquired taste perhaps!
I made mead a couple times. At the time I as a member of a medieval recreation society called the Society for Creative Anachronism. Turned out pretty well. My father made home-made wine and beer when I was a child. I rented a house with my then fiance in Toronto in 1990. It was an older couple's retirement home before they had to move to a nursing home. It had 6 grape vines and 14 fruit trees: full size Macintosh, Red Delicious, Granny Smith, Bartlett Pear, another Pear, Prune Plumb, and one tree grafted so it was half Golden Plumb and half Red Plumb. Grape vines were Italian wine grapes. And they left their wine making equipment behind. I had to! When I returned to Winnipeg, I bought a house and planted a variety of grapes that survive our colder climate. I've made wine from grapes grown in my yard, as well as wild berries picked from a park. Yes, there are places you can still go to pick wild berries: blueberries, raspberries, Saskatoon berries (aka June berries), chokecherries. I taught my sister's first husband how to make wine. His wine always was sweet and fruity, mine was dry. He liked dry wine, and liked sweet and fruity. So we traded. Wasn't until long after my sister's divorce that she told me what they did different. They used bread yeast instead of wine yeast.
Irish Mist is Irish whiskey with heather honey and spices. Glayva is scotch whisky with heather honey, tangerine and spices. They're both made with heather honey, so both have a rich red colour. As you can imagine, anything with scotch is more expensive. But the liquor mart in this province has discontinued Irish Mist. So now that home distilling is legal, I'm making my own. Heather doesn't grow in Canada, it's too cold. You can't get heather honey here. So I'm using buckwheat honey with nutmeg and allspice. It's pretty good. Need to tweak the alcohol further.
There are various uses for honey. And various pollinators. Years ago I posted a list of pollinators, most of which don't sting or bite. But only bees produce honey.
I had some mead once - did I mention that before? An acquired taste perhaps!
*sniffle* I want bees. I could post a picture of my favourite honey liqueur. My girlfriend likes baklava, although she can't eat tree nuts. Anaphylaxis.
I posted that a greenhouse for cocoa trees for chocolate would have a tunnel with negative pressure so breeze down the tunnel would be faster than midges could fly. That would blow midges back into the tropical greenhouse. Bees fly faster, but we could do something similar.
Google claims maximum flight speed of Western Honeybee is 32 km/h, but I can't find a reference.
The British Bee Keepers Association: How fast can honey bees fly?
The normal top speed of a worker would be about 15-20 mph (21-28 km/h), when flying to a food source, and about 12 mph (17 km/h), when returning laden down with nectar, pollen, propolis or water.
We could just use an airlock to keep bees in.
That's a bit like telling the Wright Brothers back in 1900 "It took evolution 2 billion years to get something to fly...and you think you can fly in the next ten years?"
Unless I am very mistaken, what a bee contributes to the pollination process is pretty simple ie walking into a flower and getting pollen deposited on it that it will then deposit on another flower. I am sure there will be technical challenges but I can't see how that wouldn't be quite easy for a robot to replicate. It could either be done on a macro scale where you have a lot of (sticky ended) probes push at the plant - so law of averages gives you pollen on some probes - or it could involve lots of micro cameras directing probes to the flower target. I think the first would be more successful.
I see however that people are already working on robotic pollination:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GN3ZNe1aeoA
I am not such a fan of the drone idea - I think wheeled robots in a controlled farm hab setting would work better. But it seems highly likely bees are not strictly necessary to achieving cross-pollination.
Ah I see someone has already realised my conception pretty much:
https://www.wired.com/story/robotic-pollinator/
Always best to do some research first before getting in the pulpit, TA.
For Louis re parasites on bees ...
In an earlier post, I reported on research/study/experiments that show a promising path.
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php … 81#p180181The idea (as I understand it) is to select males who keep themselves clean (groom themselves) so their genes can be passed along to a next generation.
The reminder from either RobertDyck or Mars_B4_Moon about the challenge of maintaining a genetic line might be ** less ** on Mars, since bees won't be intermixing there.
***
Nature took millions of years to evolve bees.Your faith that humans can develop equally effective pollination robots is touching.
I estimate it would take an Apollo scale investment to achieve duplication of bees.
In reports that appear in the media from time to time, it appears there are research teams engaged in solving the problem for military and commercial purposes having nothing to do with bees.
It ** could ** happen, but it won't be accomplished by a kitchen table student experimenter.
(th)
Much as I love bees here on Earth and believe we should do everything to protect their viability as a range of species I have my doubts about bees on Mars, certainly in the early decades and prior to terraformation. I just don't feel they fit in with the a pressurised air system that well. They certainly, on Earth, have many parasitres, fungi and all the rest in their hives. What might be released into the pressurised atmosphere if we start importing bees?
I don't accept that we would be dependent on bees for pollination for some (not all, of course) crops. I am sure we could develop robots that can effect bee-like pollination in controlled farm hab settings.
An interesting video about a wind powered vehicle that can go downwind faster than the wind speed...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyQwgBAaBag
Reminds me of debates I had some time ago with "conservation of energy fanatics" who would simply not countenance the idea that you could have a boat that had a wave energy contraption attached which could harness energy from its own bow wave. I wasn't putting the idea forward as a practical method of transport but as a theoretical concept for energy gain. I remember in the end I resorted to things they couldn't possibly deny e.g. that there could be wave machines at the side of the river taking up the energy of the bow wave and relaying it back to the boat as microwave energy. At that point they would say all you have is a more efficient engine lol.
Wow - this is big news B4!
Loving the rig names. Is that a dig at another company (Boeing? Lockheed?) who wanted to put a base on Phobos and Deimos and launch from there!!
Anyway as always Musk surprises. Next year!
I can't think it would be going to land cargo specifically for the Mission - could it be launch a communications network, similar to Starlink?
Who knows, or maybe he's decided use 2022 as the test run for 2024 robot mission.
This is beyond exciting for we who love all things Mars!
Here's a link to a news website:
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-styl … 56911.html
Musk's Un-manned coming Soon?
Elon Musk says Mars-bound Starship will launch from ‘ocean spaceport’ next year
https://news.yahoo.com/elon-musk-says-m … 16157.html
https://i.redd.it/cd9r23o9wd271.png
Exchange with Musk re the engine layout: 3-9-20 with 3 and 9 gimballing in co-ordination.
The timeline is way too pessimistic I think.
Firstly it looks like orbital flight is definitely achievable this year.
The genius of Space X's Mars Mission is it is robots first. So humans won't land for at least five years but we've seen the rate of development at Boca Chica over 2 years. There is simply no reason to think the rate of development won't pick up now some fundamental problems have been addressed.
Seems to me there are challenges but no fundamental obstacles: fire control oin landing, legs, and so on. The actual creation of a small base on Mars will be the easy bit, just like it was on the Moon...getting out of the lander and having a stroll was easy compared with what went before.
The Starship and booster seem really good concepts (unlike FH9) which will generate huge revenues in coming decades because they create a multi-purpose launch system.
Future Mars colonists may have company from 'locals' after all
https://www.universal-sci.com/article/p … obial-lifeTimeline speculation
https://www.humanmars.net/p/mars-coloni … eline.html
speculative Mars Colonization Timeline,
I am very pleased to read of Russia and China's fraternal co-operation on launchers...that should slow development considerably!
I expect the nuclear powered space tug is years away.
Assuming the Biden administration don't put in place any roadblocks, I think Musk is no more than 5 to 7 years away from getting humans to Mars.
I am sure there's a tale to be told of how Space X went down the rabbit holes of the FH9 development and carbon construction materials. Without going down those holes, we might be there already. But anyway I have no doubt Space X will be first, subject to no political interference.
Perhaps Musk can do it before NASA?
or
Russians are coming back?First mission of Russia’s nuclear-powered space tug to take 50 months
https://tass.com/science/1292721According to Bloshenko, the space tug will first approach the Moon, where a spacecraft will separate from it. After that, it will head to Venus to perform a gravity assist maneuver and deliver another spacecraft. Then, it will depart towards Jupiter and one of its satellites.
https://www.defenseworld.net/news/29641 … _Launchers
Russia, China Reach ‘Oral’ Agreement on Integration of One-another’s Manned Space Launchers