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I think we are confusing a few things here. To my mind the sequence should be:
1. Establish a presence on Mars. Your first location might not be the ultimate base location, although you would be aiming for a good area. For Mission 1 there is no requirement to feed and water the crew with ISRU: plenty of supplies can be brought with the crew or pre-landed.
2. Mission 1 can experiment with soil and food production and other ISRU techniques.
3. Begin prospecting for a permanent base site. Build in mobility. Personally I would run with electric trikes to begin with. You can probably explore
4. Once you have located the perfect site with good iron ore, silica and water supplies- that's where the main colonisation effort would be focussed.
I would suggest the above approach would provide the swiftest route to colonisation - it's a case of don't run before you can walk.
Robot drilling down into the regolith sounds expensive and asking for trouble. Get people on the planet and they will find the water.
Is salty water a problem? I would have thought we could desalinate easily. Energy on the surface will not be a problem.
No need to panic about water would be my view.
How much water do we need? Maybe a kg a day per person. You don't need actually need water to wash yourself. You don't actually need water to clean clothes or clean crockery. What you need really need water for is drinking.
A 6 person colony might use 6kgs a day or under 2000 kgs pa. Of course, though, we will have the technology to recycle most of the water we use. Simple technology is available to effect that.
So, let's say conservatively we could get by on 500kgs for a 6 person colony.
Why not pre-land the water then in a separate craft?
Once the colony is established they can search for water - I agree we should land where we think water will be found but we shouldn't assume we can only begin colonisation if we find a water source.
RobertDyck has there been any menu work done on what we might be able to grow to supplement what we bring for dry goods to mars when we take into account how long food items take to grow and the re-estate that some require to replenshish what we bring.
Foodstuffs like bean sprouts grown from dried beans could be a useful first step. They are v. nutritious.
I guess it would be baby steps - we ought to be experimenting with creating soils on Mars, using Mars regolith, human faeces, and other waste matter (e.g. food waste).
The quantities of money seem kind of underwhelming, though. But I suppose we will see.
I think the issue is whether they can get TV deals in place all around the planet. You have to think of it as a world wide TV reality franchise.
I have my doubts as well. But it's not unusual for a $100 million to be spent on a TV series. Potentially around the globe this may work - areas which are less cynical that W Europe perhaps...places like China, India, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia - may take to the idea.
One can see how it would work in theory - reality selection series over 5 years...with a worldwide audience of perhaps 300 million - could easily generate a billion dollars over say 100 episodes.
Obviously at some stage they would be looking for billionaire backers. They really need to be able to get to $100million I think to be able to attract that sort of money. It's possible Space X might give them some free rides to LEO.
I think they're raising money any way they can. I don't think they yet know how they're going to pull this off. I question the wisdom of a one-way colony-planting trip before we have attempted any experiments at trying to live off the land there. That makes it more-or-less a suicide mission, unless somebody gets there first with a base or automated equipment to try out all the technologies that might (I repeat "might") enable humans to survive there. Note also that I said "survive", not "thrive". There is a huge difference. A colony must be able to thrive, sooner or later, or it cannot be a success.
GW
When you read into it, it's not really a one way mission - that was a bit of media hype that worked.
Quaoar wrote:Is not simple to extract oil from soy, corn or sunflower seed: you need solvents and a very good system to remove them. Whitout a chemical industry, on Mars is better to use olive oil that can be extracted by pressure only.
That's how it's normally done, but you don't have to do it that way. Use of a solvent gets the most oil, but as you said that creates the problem of removing the solvent. An expeller uses mechanical pressure to extract oil, no solvent. It doen't extract as much oil, but you don't have to remove the solvent.
This manufacturer produces one sized for a kitchen. It's intended for oil seeds: canola, sunflower seed, sesame, safflower, hazelnut, flax (linseed oil), grape seed, and rapeseed (American to copy canola, grows in their climate). However, it can be used for soybeans as well. I emailed the manufacturer. His reply:
It will work for soybeans, although the oil contents is beneath 25%. I managed to press the oil with a handy trick: just before pressing I soak the beans in boiling water for 2 seconds, let the water drip off and press the warm beans. I expect there is a difference in oil contents between soy varieties too. Turning of the crank requires some extra muscles.
http://www.piteba.com/eng/index_eng.html
http://www.piteba.com/images/oil%20expe … _thumb.jpg
Excellent link.
Some people don't understand that inefficiency is the LEAST of our problems on Mars!
On Mars, the first rule is to survive - whether you do that efficiently or inefficiently (in Earth terms) is neither here nor there.
What we really need on Mars are simple technologies that don't require too much specialised knowledge or, alternatively, state of the art robot technology that doesn't require the first settlers to have too much specialised knowledge.
The reason you can't rely on specialised knowledge is because you are expecting your initial colony to reproduce in miniature the whole of human civilisation. By definition they can't be expert in all fields.
From Wikipedia
The Mayflower departed Plymouth, England on September 16, 1620 with 102 passengers and about 30 crew members in the small, 100 foot long ship. The first month in the Atlantic, the seas were not severe, but by the second month the ship was being hit by strong north-Atlantic winter gales causing the ship to be badly shaken with water leaks from structural damage. There were two deaths, but this was just a precursor of what happened after their Cape Cod arrival, when almost half the company would die in the first winter.[12][13]
So what would be the interplanetary equivalent to the Mayflower, but going to Mars. If you had 102 passengers and 30 crew members, what would such a spacecraft look like? I do think 30 crew members is a bit high, even for a large space craft, but maybe I might be wrong, that would mean about 1 crew member for every 3-4 passengers
I think the equivalent would be an interplanetary shuttle hab - a Bigelow style structure. You pack as many people as you can into the hab, and then the crew get them from Earth Orbit to Mars Orbit. Apollo style landers take you down to the surface at each end.
The mass discrepancy is far less. For one thing, you need a back up reactor. This is human beings we are talking about - you can't assume 100% operational ability. Either that or you have to take back up solar panel mass.
Also, nuclear reactors are not so good if you want to pursue a sensible policy of pre-landings. You'll need solar for those I would suggest. So why not take a lot of that solar panel mass in bite-size pieces.
Of course once there, you can probably build reflective technology at no or little mass cost. It might be possible to begin that on the first mission.
You don't need a backup nuclear reactor, because the space reactor has no moving parts, and once setup is not really vulnerable to failure short of being hit by a meteorite. The thing about a nuclear reactor with no moving parts (which is this design) is that once it works on the ground, nothing is really going to change that. With no cyclic loads, thermal cycling, extensive pre-flight testing, etc etc etc. you can be fully confident that your nuclear reactor will work. Perhaps a couple hundred kg of batteries would be needed, or more likely a small methlox generator (The engine will probably be about 40 kg, while the generator will probably not be more than 60 kg, for a total of 100 kg. Say 150 kg for the generator, including all the externalities.
I've also heard of natural gas being used in a fuel cell, which implicitly means that methane could be too. This would be more efficient and also probably have an even lower mass. You've been throwing around this "second reactor" argument for quite a while when there is really no reason to think that one would be necessary.
Is a second reactor more safe? Well, yes. But so is a second hab. Do you propose to send two of those? How about a second dedicated ERV, just in case? Or perhaps we should send a clone of each crewmember, cryogenically frozen, just in case the original should meet some fate?
My point is that it's not necessary and increases cost while not decreasing the mission risk significantly.
In any case, logic dictates that rather than sending two 80 kW reactors to provide 80 kW, you send two 40 kW reactors; If one should meet with an unexpected failure, you still have half of the amount of energy you need and can spend twice as much time making fuel, which will still result in fuel production being completed before the fuel is actually needed.
Further, cycling the ISRU (In-Situ Resource Utilization) unit as you will have to as part of solar power will result in a higher probability of failure, and necessitates excess capacity on your ISPP (In-Situ Propellant Production) unit, which will be split into several identical subunits so as to be failure-tolerant.
In addition, because a nuclear reactor will mass in the 3-5 tonne range, it's small enough to land by itself. This is a factor of 3-5 larger than Curiosity, which is a very reasonable scale-up of the technology. Seeing as the Hab will mass significantly more I don't really see how this is even an issue, either from a technological or safety standpoint. Keep in mind that in the Mars Direct architecture you do have the option to re-send the entire system on the second launch window should it fail at the first.
Beyond this, that level of manufacturing is rather silly to incorporate in a first mission. It's a high level of risk for almost no return, just the kind of thing that is worth experimenting with but not depending upon.
It's interesting here that despite the fact that we're proposing systems that are now nearly identical, we're having the same argument we've had on the matter for the last few years
Regardless, I still hold that Nuclear Reactors are technically preferable, but only an issue insofar as the politics get in the way.
Wow! You've just invented the first infallible machine.
Once upon a time we had a discussion for Frequently Asked Questions. New comers always ask the same questions. I thought Josh wrote that. What happened to it?
The reason I ask, is the topic of this discussion is one. The reason for going to Mars, is to be on Mars. For humans to go to Mars, the purpose is to live and thrive on Mars, not to be cooped up in a simulation of Earth. If you can't leave without a centrifuge, can't explore the surface, can't mine and harvest resources, always paranoid to protect yourself from every tiny thing that's different from Earth, then there would be no purpose to leave Earth. Medical research leads us to suspect the problem with zero-G (or microgravity) is lack of convection of fluids. Or otherwise, lack of fluid movement due to lack of gravity. That means significant gravity such as 0.38g should solve the problem. Of course you could argue that there is no data to confirm that assertion, the Centrifuge Accommodation Module on ISS was supposed to verify that. But assuming we require a centrifuge on Mars to survive, simply because the Centrifuge module on ISS was cancelled? Um, no! If you're going to go to Mars, then be on Mars.
I take your general point (as for FAQs - well virtually all the discussions here are FAQs if you want to be grinchy about it) - but I think it is certainly something to consider and prepare for if we are going to take up long term residence on Mars. We can't just overcome the laws of physics through an effort of will.
It might be that eventually we settle for something like sleeping pods at night at 1G (or maybe 1.2 or something) to compensate overall and maintain top health (in combination with weighted body suits to continually stress muscles during the day).
NASA complained that Mars Direct was too small. Reducing from 6 crew to 4 will already gain objections. Using ISPP for the entire return to Earth will also gain objections. I did include artificial gravity for both transits: Earth-Mars, and Mars-Earth. Shrinking any further puts mission objectives/value at risk.
But we should move this to the Mars architecture thread.
Just double up the mission - that's always been my approach: the equivalent of sending two Apollo landers on one mission.
louis wrote:http://io9.com/5664014/making-a-baby-in … l-involved
I think there have been a number of experiments showing the risk to embryo development.
You have also to note that the experiments was not performed in microgravity, but in simulated microgravity, with a Earth based device that countinously change orientation, to not have a stable up-down position. So we have only extrapolated data on embryo develpoment in real microgravity, and completely no data on a 0.38 gee low gravity.
There have been abnormalities observed - I think it is reasonable to speculate these sorts of abnormality are likely to have negative consequences in highly complex organisms dependent on brain development:
"Abstract
In vertebrates, only few experiments have been performed in microgravity to study the embryonic development from fertilization. To date, these concern only amphibian and fish. We report here a study on the embryonic development of Pleurodeles waltl (urodele amphibian) eggs oviposited in microgravity. The experiment was performed twice on board the Mir space station and the data obtained included video recording and morphological, histological and immunocytological analyses. The data confirm that the microgravity conditions have effects during the embryonic period, particularly during cleavage and neurulation, inducing irregular segmentation and abnormal closure of the neural tube. Moreover, we observed several abnormalities hither to undescribed corresponding to cortical cytoplasm movements, a decrease of cell adhesion and a loss of cells. These abnormalities were temporary and subsequently reversible. The young larvae that hatched during the flight displayed normal morphology and swimming behavior after landing. The results obtained in the urodele Pleurodeles waltl are in accordance with those observed earlier in the anuran Xenopus laevis and in the fish Oryzias latipes."
Decimator wrote:louis wrote:1. Procreation will require some extended replication of 1G
What do you base this on? We have no data between zero and one gee.
Probably 0.38 gee is enough for a correct embryo-fetal development, but as you correctly say, we have no data (if not, it would pose a serious limit on animal breeding)
A one gee facility will be very likely needed for a correct body development of the martian children.
http://io9.com/5664014/making-a-baby-in … l-involved
I think there have been a number of experiments showing the risk to embryo development.
This is an interesting issue. Perhaps at some future date Mars historians will look wryly on such speculation!
For me I think the following tentative conclusions are relevant:
1. Procreation will require some extended replication of 1G
2. Bone mass can be increased on Mars through wearing of weighted clothing.
3. Problems with immune system alleged to relate to zero G may have more to do with simply being absent from a "threat" environment. Returnees from Mars may have to be gradually subjected to various viruses and bacteria on Earth, to reboot their immune system.
I think in terms of raising children on Mars there is a bigger problem. I believe it is the case that studies in zero G have shown abnormal development in embryos. Accordingly, we will need 1G facilities either on the surface, or in Mars orbit, where a woman can gestate the embryo safely. There may be a trend towards artificial insemination with a view to gestating twins.
I have never considered 1G facilities on the surface a practical solution but am happy to be persuaded otherwise.
JoshNH4H wrote:I would think that they would want to go to one of the more equatorial regions, perhaps those where large underground seas/glaciers have been found. I would expect that water from these would locally migrate up to the surface, at a slow rate.
It's important to perform first an unmanned prospection mission to know exactly how deep is the water pack.
How much deep can we drill, with the hardware that can be realistically stowed in a lander?
I think a digger would be better. You can get down deep with a digger but I think the technology is easier. A mini digger can weigh less than one tonne. Using advanced lightweight materials you could probably get it down to 500 kgs. Hook it up to a solar array and it could do its work during the day.
Hi Louis:
First time I'd seen it, thanks. Any manned settlement Mars One establishes is going to need a large supply of water (locally as ice). They need to develop some ground truth about buried glacial deposits of ice at all the sites they are considering. I've never seen a lander or an orbiter equipped to do that. Saw nothing in the article about that, either.
Water content in the Martian soil suffers from two really serious problems: (1) 1-2% ice-in-soil is an awfully diffuse resource to recover, and (2) an awful lot of that soil-bound ice seems to be far too salty for human or agricultural use without some sort of chemical cleanup.
In contrast, a buried glacier would very likely be real freshwater. Especially if it once was pack ice from a vanished ocean.
To find out what's really down there, and how much there really is, takes a drill rig capable of drilling as much as a kilometer down. Based on the probe designs I've seen, we'll not get data like that until men go, and even then only if their rover has the drill rig on it. Needs a digging blade, too. Basically, we need a backhoe/front-end loader, but with a drill rig on it.
I surely would hate to see people settled onto a site that turns out to be a dry hole. Because then we'd have to watch them all die without realistic hope of rescue. Commercial or governmental, doesn't matter; there is nothing as expensive as a dead crew. That's been the history of it, going back to the first manned flights in the 1960's.
GW
Mars One does build in a number of pre-lander flights. A ton of water landed from Earth would probably be good enough for a couple of people to survive on for an extended period (I mean years) , given the potential for recycling.
That said, I agree with you that the ideal water source is an ancient glacier.
Have people seen this?
http://www.mars-one.com/news/press-rele … ssion-to-m
Seems to add credibility to Mars One.
All they need now is a billionaire backer!
The MarsDrive roaming mobile plan had cargo lander predispositioned aroung mars as to keep the mass of the RV down if it were to circa navigating of Mars. The same preload plan was also for a localized research radius as well.
The remaining group seems to have gone roage off on there own at this point so marsdrive is sort of stopped in design developement from what I can see.
Pre-landings always seem the sensible way to go for me.
An interesting article here:
http://voices.yahoo.com/nasa-develops-t … 67000.html
It would seem that Mars is in fact the perfect place to keep rocket fuel in terms of boil off - I presume it would be stored in a shaded spot.
Well I am hoping Mars is going to an interesting place. Maybe once it has established its own culture it may develop its own rituals. Why not cremation in the sun - to be propelled on a trajectory that will take the body (enclosed in a pod) directly to the surface of the sun.
And thus require eight years of lead time?
Yes, but that lead in time could start within a couple of years since we already have that capability - of sending small probes to Mars.
GW Johnson wrote:The one item we have been discussing here with little-to-no history behind it (so far) is propellant manufacture on Mars. That is why it is risky: no history behind it. Zubrin's bench-top lab device is not a proper prototype for something we could test, nor are the other similar devices. We need to build and test those prototypes. Now. Yet, no space agency anywhere is doing more than academic lab stuff. That kind of thing just doesn't qualify as an engineering prototype test.
GW
Sabatier reaction is very well known and it's used by chemical industry for more than a century. I think it will be not difficoult to build a bigger device and test it in the Mars atmosphere simulator of German Space Agency. The bigger problem may be the energy to run the pump and drive the water electrolysis: small 100 KW nuclear reactor vs. film solar panel carpet. The first may get a lot of political trouble, the second may be very difficoult to deploy automatically: a solution may be and ADEPT like deployable aeroshell-landing gear, with the filmsy solar panels on the internal side of the deployable heat shield, that will be exposed to the sun after landing.
http://www.lpi.usra.edu/vexag/Nov2012/p … cinski.pdf
The real problem is the absence of interest.
I don't foresee deployment of PV panels as a problem. Another point - if you have pre-landings the fuel production could be run over several years, reducing the power requirement, I would have thought i.e. if you thought the fuel production would take a year, were we to run that over 8 years, we might need only 12-15 Kws equivalent of PV panel.
GW: I don't doubt that the surface is harsh. But I presume that we agree that it is not impossibly so. Given that, and given that there is a definite continuum from a meter or two below the surface to open air I would certainly expect the increasing availability of energy resources and new niches to fill would present a strong evolutionary pressure for life to migrate up.
Louis, Terraformer got it exactly right. I'd add that a strong knowledge of chemistry is quite important if you're trying to convince someone that... what are the words again? Oh yes, if you want me and others to be "sure I trust your judgment on what might or might not be possible" when it comes to exobiology.
In any case, there would be no need to metabolize any form of Iron oxide when there are sufficient reserves of water and carbon dioxide lying around.
Why do microbes on earth metabolise iron oxide then?
Oops. Aluminum wheels may not have been the best choice for a long-life nuke rover. News stories today indicate unanticipated rates of wear attributed to rough ground.
Everybody who has ever hiked around in the mountains knows how rough that kind of ground can be. Not sure whether weight or cost drove them to aluminum wheels, but I'd bet that team is regretting that choice now.
GW
That does seem an odd choice, given the weight of the rover and the rough ground. What would you have suggested GW? Was the reason they chose aluminium because of the way it behaves in extremely cold weather?
In what is perhaps an ironic twist of fate, Mars has almost no ferrous oxide. The highly oxidizing environment has reduced all of the Iron to the Ferric (Iron (III)) state, leaving little or no Ferrous (Fe (II)) Iron compounds.
My outrage was therefore both correct and justified; Would you care to make any further assertions about my ability to opine correctly on the matter?
I don't doubt that it's physically possible for life to exist on Mars, but rather make an argument similar to that which leads to the Fermi Paradox on a Galactic scale. "If they were there, they would be everywhere because on geological timescales, life spreads quickly. We don't see any life. So where is it?"
There's nothing unreasonable, in the case of Mars, in saying that it's not there.
Well you have to explain why there are so many references to Mars being rich in iron oxide:
http://www.universetoday.com/22580/why-is-mars-red/
What's your source for saying there is little or no iron oxide?