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A reusable lunar lander can also be used as a Mars lander. Then designing lunar return missions can help with accomplishing a manned Mars mission:
Towards a low cost lander for the Moon - and Mars.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2014/0 … n-and.html
Bob Clark
Virgin Galactic appears to have acknowledged that SpaceShipTwo will not be
able to reach the full altitude of 100 km considered to be space:
SpaceShipTwo Can’t Reach 100 Km Boundary of Space.
http://www.parabolicarc.com/2014/05/15/ … ary-space/
It is unfortunate that VG decided to use hybrid engines for SS2. If they had
used liquid engines, then they would already be flying suborbitally:
Transitioning SpaceShipTwo to liquid fueled engines: a technology driver to
reusable orbital launchers.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2014/0 … iquid.html
Bob Clark
The father and son astronauts Owen and Richard Garriott argue we should
accelerate the pace at which we get an independent U.S. space capability:
It's Time to Push for US Human Spaceflight Independence (Op-Ed).
Richard Garriott, Cosmonaut/Astronaut, and Owen Garriott, Astronaut
(retired) | May 07, 2014 12:54am ET
After more than two decades of development, it is essential that the United
States keeps the ability to visit, work and return from the ISS within its
national capabilities. Yet, it is surprising to see how little discussion,
much less pressure, is being applied to accelerating plans to regain an
independent capability for human spaceflight. Now seems to be the time for
Congress, NASA and the general public to all push hard, and get one or more
of these U.S. systems in space as soon as possible."
http://www.space.com/25785-american-hum … riott.html
Considering that SpaceX intends to fly their own crews to LEO in 2015, we could
have NASA flights to the ISS by 2015 with funding. Odd that SpaceX
is not pressing the issue since they plan to make their own, independent of
NASA, crewed test flights to LEO then.
Two more articles arguing for accelerating commercial crew:
May 14, 2014, 1:14pm EDT
Elon Musk was right: What Russia's anti-NASA plan means for C. Fla.
Richard Bilbao
Reporter-Orlando Business Journal
It means U.S.-based commercial space transport is even more important
than ever, said Frank DiBello, president and CEO of Space Florida, an agency
behind fostering the growth of Florida's space industry.
“This type of news even further magnifies the need for the U.S. to be
aggressive about enabling commercial space market expansion ASAP. As with
transport of crews to the ISS, we cannot wait much longer. Swift action must
be taken to ensure our states and commercial U.S. companies have the tools
they need — whether that be dedicated launch infrastructure or engines — to
keep our national space program intact without reliance on others,” he said.
http://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/blog … -plan.html
EXPLORING OPTIONS.
By ROGER LAUNIUS
Former Chief Historian of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(NASA), 1990-2002
To avoid reliance on good Russian–American relations, the United
States must accelerate the development of an American rocket. Bolden has
already asked for this, telling the U.S. Congress that “the choice here is
between fully funding the request to bring space launches back to American
soil or continue to send millions to the Russians.” Thus far, Congress has
not acted to accelerate the development of an American-built rocket.
http://www.themarknews.com/2014/05/13/e … options-2/
Bob Clark
Support Grows For New U.S. Rocket Engine.
Amy Butler Frank Morring, Jr. May 26, 2014
http://m.aviationweek.com/space/support … ket-engine
Possibilities might be the engines investigated a decade ago for a possible
heavy lift booster. Unfortunately they were cancelled in 2004 after the Ares
V was decided upon. One such engine was the reusable RS-84.
In 2009 when the Obama administration was considering producing a heavy lift
kerosene engine there was talk of resurrecting the RS-84, but it was
cancelled again when the SLS was decided upon. This article from 2003 said
it would take until 2007, 4 years, to produce it:
RS-84 Engine Passes Preliminary Design Milestone.
Huntsville – Jul 16, 2003
The RS-84 is one of two competing efforts now under way to develop an
alternative to conventional, hydrogen-fueled engine technologies. The RS-84
is a reusable, staged combustion rocket engine fueled by kerosene — a
relatively low-maintenance fuel with high performance and high density,
meaning it takes less fuel-tank volume to permit greater propulsive force
than other technologies.
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/rocketscience-03zm.html
IF development continued for an additional year up to 2004 and IF the
development materials and designs were retained, then conceivably
development could be restarted and completed in just 3 additional years.
In any case I’d like to see a study done to see how long and how much it
would cost to complete its development.
Another possibility might be the TR-107:
NASA invests $21 million in TR107 engine development.
6 May 2003
http://www.theengineer.co.uk/news/nasa- … z32b7sNvZf
Bob Clark
It was an unfortunate, though understandable, choice to use hybrids. It was understandable because SpaceShipOne had successfully accomplished the Ansari challenge using hybrids. There was also the belief that hybrids were safer than liquid engines. However, the accident at Scaled belies that view.
If they had used liquids they would have been flying suborbitally years ago.
Bob Clark
Wanna Build a Rocket? NASA’s About to Give Away a Mountain of Its Code.
BY ROBERT MCMILLAN 04.03.14 | 6:30 AM |
http://www.wired.com/2014/04/nasa-guide … ign=buffer
A listing and description of the software available is on this NASA page under the link for the "Software Catalog":
NASA Technology Transfer Portal.
http://technology.nasa.gov/
Quite a few there for calculating trajectories and for structural loads.
Bob Clark
A contingency plan for a fast return of the U.S. to space.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2014/0 … rn-of.html
Bob Clark
RGClark wrote:Human 2 Mars conference April 22 to April 24 in Washington, D.C.:
http://www.eventbrite.com/event/7899049269/efblike
Keynote speech by NASA administrator Charles Bolden. I plan to attend.
Hoping to get feedback on the possibility of using using solar powered plasma drives to shorten flight times:http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2014/0 … sible.html
Bob Clark
Please give us some updates on the presentations Bob - sounds like a brilliant conference.
The Humans 2 Mars conference will be live streamed over the internet on LiveStream April 22nd to April 24th:
http://new.livestream.com/viewnow/exploremars
Bob Clark
RGClark wrote:Human 2 Mars conference April 22 to April 24 in Washington, D.C.:
http://www.eventbrite.com/event/7899049269/efblike
Keynote speech by NASA administrator Charles Bolden. I plan to attend.
Hoping to get feedback on the possibility of using using solar powered plasma drives to shorten flight times:http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2014/0 … sible.html
Bob Clark
Please give us some updates on the presentations Bob - sounds like a brilliant conference.
I shall. BTW, you might like reading this:
Economical Space Solar Power Now Possible.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2014/0 … ow_19.html
Bob Clark
Human 2 Mars conference April 22 to April 24 in Washington, D.C.:
http://www.eventbrite.com/event/7899049269/efblike
Keynote speech by NASA administrator Charles Bolden. I plan to attend.
Hoping to get feedback on the possibility of using using solar powered plasma drives to shorten flight times:
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2014/0 … sible.html
Bob Clark
Recent advances in solar concentrators mean we can use solar power rather than nuclear power to power plasma engines. Then we already have the capability to make manned flights to Mars at travels times of weeks rather than months:
Short travel times to Mars now possible through plasma propulsion.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2014/0 … sible.html
Bob Clark
Frontal drag will always be an insoluble problem for supersonic/hypersonic blimp ideas, no matter what kind of rocket you try to push it with.
GW
Drag will be a problem for solar thermal launch from the ground. But I don't rule it entirely. For instance it doesn't have to be a blimp. It could be like, say, a large supersonic aircraft such as the XB-70 where the focusing lenses or mirrors cover the entire wing.
Bob Clark
L1 is also a possibility; there are a lot of studies of the "L1 Gateway" station, as it is called. L1 may be more convenient because it is closer and faster to reach, but it takes 300 meters per second more delta-v. Either way, trans-Earth injection has to be done deep in Earth's gravity well, so you have to go back to Earth to head to Mars. L1 is closer and more convenient.
You could also save time and propellant using a solar electric or solar thermal engine to move most of your assets into a very large elliptical orbit, then move the people and the earth return capsule there quickly, rendezvous above the Van Allen Belts, loop back in, and perform trans-Earth injection.
Personally, I rather like solar thermal propulsion. You can only generate about 100 pounds of thrust at a time, but you can heat up a transfer medium for many hours and choose when to perform your burn--at perigee--so it is efficient. It can generate specific impulses of 900 seconds, maybe more; so it is comparable to a nuclear thermal engine. But you can't use it to move people; they'd loop through the Van Allen Radiation Belts repeatedly.
I like thermal propulsion. I don't understand why it hasn't been develop yet. It seems a simple idea. You just focus the sunlight on the propellant like a magnifying lens. This is well known on Earth in the use of a "solar furnace". Temperatures as high as 3,000 K can be reached, the temperature at the surface of the Sun.
Solar thermal has the advantage it can get high thrust like chemical propulsion but also high Isp such as 900 s, without needing nuclear propulsion.
Bob Clark
A trans mars injection is almost 4 km/s starting from LEO and less than 1 km/s starting from Earth-Moon L2.
So why not consider to send the spaceship unmanned in L2, with a slow spiraling solar-electric space tug, one year before departure?
When is time to depart, the astronaut can rendez-vous the spaceship in L2 with a less massive vehicle like an Orion or a Dragon Rider.In a future, we can put LOX propellant depot obtained from lunar regolith in L2, by now we have some very interesting electric thruster like NEXT ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NEXT_%28ion_thruster%29 ), that can do the job with a good solar array.
I like the idea. You might have a large chemical propulsion vehicle transported to L2 by solar electric propulsion(SEP). Because of the high Isp of solar electric it would not take much size for the SEP to carry it there. Chemical propulsion has the advantage of quicker transport time, important for a manned ship.
Bob Clark
SpaceX has already said that with funding they can make manned launches by 2015. I found this earlier article from 2012 that said with funding Boeing could also launch their CST-100 spacecraft by 2015:
Boeing anticipates CST-100 orbital flight tests in 2016.
BY STEPHEN CLARK
SPACEFLIGHT NOW
Posted: April 11, 2012
Quote:
...The appropriation forced NASA to revise its forecast for the beginning of operational commercial crew missions from 2016 to 2017. The start of commercial crew service would come after a series of test flights by the spacecraft's private operators.
Even a $500 million award likely would delay Boeing's flight test program beyond 2015, according to Mulholland.
"With appropriate funding, we still can support a 2015 entry into service. I would say, and I can't be real specific on it, to hold the 2015 date, we would need, it appears, slightly more than the $300 million to $500 million in the base period," Mulholland said.
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/news/n1204/11cst100/
Cuts to NASA's commercial crew program forced the agency to push back manned launches to 2017. Recent events however have now given impetus to re-accelerate the program. Achieving U.S. launch independence is of such importance that sufficient funding should be provided to reach the original 2015 launch date.
I would not favor just having SpaceX as the only provider. Experience with the shuttle has shown how damaging that can be when that single provider for manned launches goes down. Also, last year Orbital Sciences had to make a cargo supply launch to the ISS in place of SpaceX when SpaceX couldn't launch in time.
The Atlas V over dozens of launches has been proven to be highly reliable. This is something the Falcon 9 at this point does not yet have. The Atlas V also has the flexibility to launch either the CST-100 or Dreamchaser, whichever is ready and available.
The preferred route then should be to have at least two independent launch providers for manned launches.
Bob Clark
Elon Musk discusses possibly doing a loop around the Moon or even a lunar landing after American return to space to prove capability prior to launching a Mars mission.
This would certainly cost far less than the multi-billion dollar missions NASA estimates for a manned lunar return. A Falcon Heavy could do a circumlunar mission alone carrying a Dragon capsule. And possibly one or two launches of the FH could do a lunar landing with the Xeus lander that Dave Masten is developing. The time frame could even be within a decade.
Elon Musk on state of U.S. space exploration: Being at Putin's mercy "not a good thing"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U44geuM6iQ0Bob Clark
Elon's comment seems even more valid now:
American access to space could be a casualty of the Ukraine crisis.
March 1, 2014
http://www.examiner.com/article/america … ine-crisis
And Congress limiting funding to NASA's commercial crew program seems increasingly foolish. It simply increases the time we have to be beholden to Putin for space access.
Bob Clark
Today's weather report on Mars:
http://cab.inta-csic.es/rems/marsweather.htmlAir: high -22°C, low -84°C
Ground: high -7°C, low -96°C
Pressure: 843 Pa (0.843 kPa)
Sunrise 5:52am, Sunset 5:34pm local time
SunnyToday's weather for Winnipeg:
Temperature at 6:00pm: -26.7°C, prediction for the low tonight: -33°C
Windchill: current -38, tonight's low -44
Pressure: 103.6 kPa
Sunrise 7:12am, Sunset 6:10pm
Sunny
Thanks for that link. Navigating along that page I found a graphic of the temperatures during the first 200 sols at the Curiosity site:
You see the air temperatures quite frequently reached 0 degrees C. And the ground temperatures were frequently significantly above freezing at maximum daytime temperature.
The air temperature is especially interesting because of the frequent observation of low lying fogs and hazes at the Curiosity site. Then the H2O contained in these fogs/hazes could melt to liquid when the air temperature reached the melting point.
Bob Clark
I suppose this should be in the thread discussing lightweight heat shields/decelerators for Mars but here is an another example, HIAD (Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators):
NASA Podcasts
NASA X: IRVE-3 1.30.13
Dr. Cheatwood: This concept would be coming back from the station, so entering at 7 1/2 kilometers a second, just like we were talking about at Mars. It would be bringing in anywhere from 3 1/2 to 5 metric tons, just like we were talking about at Mars. It would be between 8 and 10 meters in diameter, that actual HIAD, just like we were talking about at Mars. And we'll see heating of 25, 30, maybe higher, 35, 40 watts. So it's a very similar environment to Mars for that application. So we can do this flight test from the station for a very reasonable cost, and it demonstrates an ability to bring larger volumes and masses down from the station than we currently have, and it demonstrates that we could do this mission at Mars.
Pulley: With a successful heart mission researchers feel that they may have enough information and knowledge to proceed for the ultimate goal, which would mean seeing a HIAD at Mars.
Dr. Cheatwood: I believe in the technology. And, you know, I think, you know, if somebody wanted to give me a budget and say, "get us to Mars with humans in 2020," I think we could get there on this technology. I can't speak for other technologies. But no, I think we could get there.
http://www.nasa.gov/multimedia/podcasti … -0103.html
This is the transcript of this video:
NASA 360 | Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (HIAD) [HD].
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJUd3zanD8k
While I appreciate these inflatable heat shields allow you to get heavier mass to Mars, I've never seen any architecture for a manned Mars missions that only required to get 5 metric tons to the Martian surface.
Bob Clark
Why not use a fold-out heat shield? I keep going back to Mars Direct. This is image is from the original 1989 proposal from Dr. Zubrin and Dr. Baker from Martin Marietta to NASA, the heat shield and landing propulsion module for Mars Direct.
http://www.wired.com/images_blogs/wired … 00x113.jpgInteresting. The web page describes it as...
Eight months after Earth departure, the propellant factory/ERV would aerobrake into Mars orbit behind a 23-meter-diameter, 5.26-metric-ton umbrella-like ”flex-fabric” heat shield. Soon after capture into Mars orbit, the landing propulsion module would ignite its rocket motors to decelerate the propellant factory/ERV for reentry into the martian atmosphere
From the images I had assumed it was a solid heat shield with fold-out panels. After reading about DurAFRSI from Ames Research Center, I thought it was my wonderful idea to use the fabric from DurAFRSI as a parasol or "umbrella-like" heat shield. Once again I have re-invented the wheel. So again I return to Mars Direct. My mission plan is tweaked from Mars Direct. but if you can fit a 23-meter-diameter heat shield in an 8-meter diameter fairing, then what is stopping us?
Good point. I really think there are already several technical solutions to the problem of aerobraking the large mass needed for a crew module arriving at Mars.
Bob Clark
Elon Musk discusses possibly doing a loop around the Moon or even a lunar landing after American return to space to prove capability prior to launching a Mars mission.
This would certainly cost far less than the multi-billion dollar missions NASA estimates for a manned lunar return. A Falcon Heavy could do a circumlunar mission alone carrying a Dragon capsule. And possibly one or two launches of the FH could do a lunar landing with the Xeus lander that Dave Masten is developing. The time frame could even be within a decade.
Elon Musk on state of U.S. space exploration: Being at Putin's mercy "not a good thing"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U44geuM6iQ0
Bob Clark
Manned Dragon is funded by NASA, they are in control of its development schedule and the milestones that must be accomplished. That schedule calls for first manned flight in 2017. That's why NASA bought Soyuz rides through 2017.
If it was just Spacex, I'd bet that Dragon could fly manned by 2015. They've been testing the Super Draco thrusters for it, for some time now. Once those are ready, they just integrate into a capsule already designed to have them.
It's just my opinion, but I think that NASA's schedule is needlessly delayed by 1 to 2 years.
GW
Congressmen are educated people. Prior to entering Congress they are lawyers, doctors, businessman. Very smart, accomplished people. It is only after they reach Congress that they lose the ability to reason logically.
Bob Clark
There has been word of gyser like water being seen from the Herchell telescope and others.
Why is this just now happening as I do not believe we hhave seen this happen before? Is there any connection to the Mars event.spacetodat.net
European spacecraft detects water vapor around Ceres
Posted: Thu, Jan 23 7:40 AM ET (1240 GMT)Astronomers analyzing data from a European space telescope say they have discovered water vapor in the vicinity of the dwarf planet Ceres. European scientists said observations of Ceres by the infrared space telescope Herschel detected water vapor in the vicinity of the world, the largest body in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. Astronomers said the water vapor appeared to be emanating from just two locations on Ceres's surface that are slightly darker and warmer than the rest of the surface. Scientists said they didn't know if water vapor came from the sublimation of ice located near the surface or deeper inside the dwarf planet. NASA's Dawn spacecraft will study these regions in further detail when it enters orbit around Ceres early next year.
Geysers have just recently been observed from the Jovian moon Europa, and for a few years now from the Saturnian moon Enceladus. Geysers have been deduced to be occurring on the polar regions of Mars because of the presence of fan-shaped deposits there, but they have not yet been observed directly.
I discuss the Martian geysers here:
Index» Unmanned probes» Public recruited to identify geysers on Mars.
http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=6878
Bob Clark
What they have been doing lately including discussion of the Xeus lunar lander here:
Profile | Joel Scotkin, Chief Executive, Masten Space Systems.
By Dan Leone | Jan. 7, 2013
http://www.spacenews.com/article/profil … ce-systems
Bob Clark
NASA announces Commercial Lunar lander inititative
In an effort to further NASA’s increasing involvement with commercial companies, the space agency has announced that it is researching opportunities to have commercial companies develop spacecraft capable of landing on the Moon.
NASA is looking for proposals from possible commercial partners which, according to a NASA-issued press release, it hopes will lead to, “reliable and cost-effective commercial robotic lunar lander capabilities that will enable the delivery of payloads to the lunar surface.”
On Monday, Jan. 27, NASA will host a teleconference where those interested in submitting proposals will have the opportunity to query NASA about what this new announcements entails. After that, interested firms will have until Mar. 17 to submit their proposals. If everything proceeds apace, selections will be made in April and Space Act Agreements (SAAs) announced the month after that.
Lunar CATALYST is a good step. However, it is interesting to note they are limiting it to small cargo landers. Why? Perhaps because of the realization that a large lander could also be used for manned missions. The primary impetus for this program was Bigelow’s drive for private manned bases on the Moon, so it is odd that man-capable landers are excluded.
NASA’s commercial space program for LEO flight has shown an order of magnitude reduction in development costs by following the commercial space approach. The obvious thing to try is to extend this to BEO missions as well.
In fact it might even be two orders of magnitude cheaper for such a commercial space lunar lander. NASA has stated we can’t return to the Moon because, by their estimates, a lunar lander would cost $10 billion. However, Dave Masten of Masten Space Systems is working on a Centaur-derived lander he calls Xeus that he estimates can be developed for only $50 million. At the very least NASA should be supporting such efforts by SAA agreements, if not in fact partially-funding them by using the cost-sharing partnerships proven so successful with their commercial space program.
Bob Clark
Robert Zubrin wrote a critique of VASIMR propulsion here:
The VASIMR Hoax
By Robert Zubrin | Jul. 13, 2011
http://www.spacenews.com/article/vasimr-hoax
The primary criticism is that it would require unrealistically lightweight nuclear propulsion. However, Zubrin doesn't even like the idea of fast propulsion to allow short travel times to Mars. He argues in favor of using 6 month or more one-way travel times to allow free return trajectories at Mars. But the health disadvantages of long travel times such as radiation exposure, bone and muscle loss, and the recently found eye damage and vision loss suggest we should investigate such short travel times.
...
So it is important to note we may have a short term power source instead of nuclear power, for plasma propulsion such as Vasimr at the needed lightweight.
The key point is that the power source does not need to be nuclear. According to Zubrin's article on the Vasimr it requires a power source of 1,000 watts per kg power density. This is 100 times better than what has been done with nuclear space power at 10 watts per kg. However, it is only 10 times better than standard solar space cells at 100 watts per kg. Actually more recent space solar cells get 200 watts per kg, so it is only needs to be 5 times better than those.
Now the key fact is that solar cells can put out more power if they have more concentrated light shone on them. Estimates of how much power solar cellls put out are based on the solar insolation at the Earth's distance from the Sun. But if that light is concentrated they can put out more power. In fact some Earth solar power systems get more power by using inexpensive mirrors or lenses to concentrate light over a larger area rather than using expensive solar cells over that larger area.
...
Gossamer sail set to deorbit satellites.
By Jenny Winder | 30 December 2013
http://www.sen.com/news/gossamer-sail-s … satellites
This solar sail has 25 square meters at only 2 kg weight. Let's suppose we only need 10 times solar concentration. This should already be within the capacity of currently used solar cells to accommodate since recent research is in the 100's to 1,000's of Suns range.
At 10 times solar concentration this means the solar cells have 2.5 square meters area in order for the mirror reflecting area to be 10 times greater. If they were 100% efficient this would be 2500 watts of power under standard solar illumination, i.e., without concentration. Solar cells though typically are only in the range of 30% efficient. So they would give 750 watts under standard solar illumination. At a 200 watts per kg power density now reached for space solar cells they would weigh 3.75 kg.
Now we are assuming the sail concentrates 10 times greater surface area onto the cells, so under this concentrated illumination they will put out 7,500 watts. The total weight of the cells and sail would be 5.75 kg. And the power to weight efficiency would be 1,300 watts per kg, sufficient for the Vasimr.
Bob Clark