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Former NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine also saying U.S. unlikely to win race back to the Moon against China because of the too complex multi-refueling approach to a lander:
Ex-NASA chief revealed the Real Problem with SpaceX Starship to get back to the Moon while China
https://youtu.be/eA1uS4SgAwU
Bob Clark
Everyday Astronaut suggests a single launch architecture for a Moon mission using an expendable Starship as the launcher, so eliminating the SLS, and using Blue Moon as the lander, and the Orion as the capsule:
Everyday Astronaut @Erdayastronaut
Call me pessimistic, I honestly think the only way to get humans back on the moon in this decade is likely a single launch approach, but not with SLS. SLS's TLI capacity is insufficient. Honestly, make an expendable Starship upper-stage with a Saturn V style clamshell stage adapter to house a fully fueled Blue Moon Lunar Lander inside and an Orion Capsule on top.
Booster might even be able to be caught and still get all that mass on a TLI with a dedicated expendable upper stage. If not, just ditch the booster for maximum performance, who cares, that's a drop in the bucket compared to even a single RS-25. It could literally be demonstrated in less than one year from today on the Starship side.
Without needing a refueling architecture from Blue Moon, it also simplifies that development process. A stage adapter for Orion is very simple.
Make no mistake, orbital refueling is the future and will be what makes these things more sustainable, but if we're in a race to beat China to the moon, the first return to the moon could be done on a very accelerated timeline without relying on such lofty milestones and infrastructure.
Maybe I'll do a video breaking down this and other options when I finish my other video.
https://x.com/Erdayastronaut/status/1965141937931120910
Bob Clark
It would be like NASA spending billions on the Saturn V to take man to the Moon. And the Saturn V they came up with had less payload than the Gemini-Titan that could only get the Gemini capsule to LEO.
Bob Clark
It would be like spending all the money they did on the Falcon 9 and winding up with a rocket of less payload than the Falcon 1. We would say they took a bad engineering approach to the development of the larger rocket.
Bob Clark
SpaceX spent billions developing Starship version V1 getting a rocket 10 times the size of the Falcon 9 and it wound up having less payload than the Falcon 9.
Bob Clark
Tiles would appear to fail the design intent of a reusable heat shield. They are brittle, prone to cracking and suffer substantial abrasion every time they are used. Extensive refurbishment between flights would appear to be inevitable for any radiative or ablative heat shield. If Starship goes down the route of a tile based heat shield, it will be repeating one of the major design problems that ruined the economics of the shuttle.
Metal heat shields with transpirational cooling would appear to be the only option for meeting the design intent of a rapidly reusable craft. This will be very difficult to do, as each of the pores in the heat shield must eject coolant at the correct rate to cool the metal in its vicinity. Unexpected changes in atmospheric density could undermine it. The plumbing within such a shield is going to be complex and heavy. But if transpirational cooling isn't possible / practical, then a reusable Starship isn't practical. There isn't any other technology capable of meeting the design intent.
Producing a reusable heat shield, that can stand up to pressures of several bar, whilst exposed to plasma with temperature up to 10,000K, and do it repeatedly without heavy refurbishment, has got to be one of the most difficult problems in modern engineering.
I'd like to see SpaceX do experiments using actual wings for the return, not just the "flaps" now used. If the wings are sufficiently lightweight Starship might need no thermal protection at all:
Wings in space.
by James C. McLane III
Monday, July 11, 2011
Wing loading (the vehicle’s weight divided by its wing surface area) is a prime parameter affecting flight. The antique aluminum Douglas DC-3 airliner had a big wing with a low loading of about 25 psf (pounds per square foot of wing surface). At the other end of the spectrum, the Space Shuttle orbiter has a high wing loading of about 120 psf. This loading, combined with an inefficient delta-shaped wing, makes the orbiter glide like a brick. A little Cessna 152 private plane features a wing loading of about 11 psf and modern gliders operate down around 7 psf. A space plane with huge lifting surfaces and a very low wing loading might not require any external thermal insulation at all. Building a space plane with a wing loading of, say, 10 psf should not be an impossible proposition. Perhaps some day it will be done.
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1880/1
Bob Clark
More uncertainty on the viability of the Starship:
AUGUST 22, 2025
Can SpaceX Solve Its ‘Exploding Starships’ Problem?
After a string of fiery failures, SpaceX’s biggest rocket faces another test flight with sky-high stakes for U.S. space ambitions
BY ADAM ROGERS EDITED BY LEE BILLINGS
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti … exploding/
SpaceX schedules 10th test flight for Starship, details recent setbacks
August 16, 2025 Will Robinson-Smith
https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/08/16/s … -setbacks/
Bob Clark
Time for the polls again about the success of SuperHeavy and Starship for the upcoming launch:
About SuperHeavy:
1.) SuperHeavy will ascend with no engines out and do boostback and landing burns with no engines out for a soft ocean landing.
2.) SH will have 1 or more engines out during ascent and/or the return burns but still complete the ocean touchdown.
3.) SH will explode either during ascent or during return burns.
About Starship:
1.)Starship will complete its burns with no engine outs.
2.)ST will have 1 or more engine outs either during ascent or return burns but still complete ocean touchdown.
3.)ST will explode either during ascent or return burns.
Bob Clark
Robert Zubrin again gives his argument why Starship should have a smaller third stage to do the actual landing on Mars:
Crewed Mars missions will require a new ascent vehicle.
by Robert Zubrin
August 12, 2025
https://spacenews.com/crewed-mars-missi … nt-vehicle
Bob Clark
…
Why not use only h2/o2 for superior isp for all engines? It's tough enough already to get into orbit with h2 what's the idea of also considering methane and RP1? Is it size? You want smaller but heavier fuel tanks vs larger but lighter ones?RP1:
H2 vs RP1 isp chart for all engine types:
https://share.google/images/d27WFuAidwtJezxAcWe looked into RP1!
RP1 is only good for suborbital craft such as passenger or military strike craft. Add a kerosene rocket at the back of LOX external fuel tanks for say an F-15 and you got your self a suborbital fighter craft that can jump from New York to Tokyo in 30 minutes. In this case it makes sense since all military jets already use jet fuel so all they need is a rocket engine compatible with it and liquid oxygen. Jets have wing pylons that can carry large fuel tanks so just put the Lox in that with a small rocket engine built into the back if it! Then you have twin rockets for the F-15 to fly half way round the world turning fighter pilots into sub-orbital astronauts. With twin rockets the jet can even turn and maneuver.
But not for SSTO
But it's a downgrade to consider replacing any hydrogen with RP1 for an SSTO craft for any engine That's the conclusion we reached years ago. Keep it all h2lLOX was what we learned to max out overall isp since getting into orbit is all about isp.
…
It had been thought that hydrolox was the best propellant to use for a rocket SSTO because of its high ISP. But closer analysis revealed that dense propellants are better for the purpose because their higher density results in lower tank mass, a significant component of the vehicle dry mass.
See discussion here:
Alternate Propellants for SSTO Launchers.
Dr. Bruce Dunn
Adapted from a Presentation at:
Space Access 96
Phoenix Arizona
April 25 - 27, 1996
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index … ach=587468
The tankage for hydrolox is about 3 times heavier, based on density, than kerolox for a rocket SSTO. But for an airbreather it’s even worse: about 10 times heavier!
Bob Clark
Those Isp charts are marketing hype. I first saw them about 50 years ago. No one design will ever follow any of those curves, even at low altitude, which low altitude is what the T/W ratio chart really is.
I have said it before, and I will say it again: ANY airbreather of any type whatsoever, has a service ceiling! This is because ALL airbreathers (of any type whatsoever !!!) have a combustion chamber pressure that is pretty much fixed as a ratio to the local atmospheric pressure. That combustion chamber pressure ratio to ambient is pretty well proportional to the engine thrust, whatever type of airbreather it is. That's just basic thermodynamics, a subject few ever take. I majored in it, among other things.
…
GW
A majorly important advantage of the new Invictus reboot of Skylon is it will use an existing jet-fuel turbojet rather than a hydrogen-fueled one that Skylon had been supposing. A hydrogen-fueled turbojet engine still does not exist and in fact the leading jet engine manufacturer studying them Rolls Royce has stated one won’t be fielded for another 20 years.
On the other hand, having the engine and precooler actually in place and undergoing testing means you can vary the different parameters of both and confirm, or disconfirm, its estimated performance values.
By the way an interesting question occurred to me looking at those performance curves: can precooling break the Mach 6 ramjet barrier?
Prior analysis of ramjet propulsion had led to the conclusion they can only be effective up to the range of ca. Mach 5.5 to Mach 6.
After that, you need scramjets to get positive net thrust with airbreathers. The problem is nobody has been able to get scramjets to provide positive net thrust for longer than just a few seconds.
But if you look at the graphs of the T/W ratio and Isp of the precooled Sabre engine compared to that of ramjets approaching Mach 6, you notice the Isp for the ramjets is rapidly trending downwards to that of just rockets, while the Sabre’s Isp is gradually leveling off. Does this mean the precooled Sabre could still get effective thrust past Mach 6?
The attached image here show specs for the original Sabre that used a high level of cryogenic precooling, while the image in my previous post was for a later version of Sabre with lower precooling. The first version with the high precooling has higher thrust but lowered Isp. But what’s notable is the Sabre’s Isp graph seems to be leveling off approaching Mach 6, while the ramjet’s Isp graph is rapidly dropping off.
So there arises the question: Is there a combination of precooling level at a prescribed outside air pressure level that would allow the Sabre to maintain positive net thrust even past Mach 6?
Bob Clark
Skylon Triumphant! Towards the SSTO.
The new program just announced called Invictus to continue the Skylon project will use a standard jet-fuel engine instead of hydrogen-fueled though it will still be precooled using hydrogen.
This may be an unrecognized blessing. My opinion is the major stumbling block from Skylon progressing is it assumed a hydrogen-fueled jet engine and such did not and still does not exist.
Nothing beats having that engine and precooler right in front of you where you can vary engine and precooler parameters to optimize performance. Skylon instead had to simulate this since they did not have a hydrogen engine at hand.
By taking the approach of using an existing jet-fuel engine, the American hypersonic concern Hermeus is rapidly proceeding to actual test flights. I predict the same will be possible with Invictus.
However, a question I had involved an aspect of the graphic attached below showing the T/W ratio and specific impulse of the Skylon compared to other propulsion methods.
The notable aspect of the Skylon Sabre engines is they used a precooler ahead of the turbojet engines. But what’s so remarkable is it increases the thrust by a factor of 3. The specific impulse is actually reduced(though still high as an airbreather) but that tripling of the thrust for an airbreathing engine is surprising.
The importance of this is that it has been frequently argued about producing an SSTO of why not just put some jet engines on it for the first part of the flight? The problem is jet engines are so heavy. Commonly their T/W ratio is only ca. 5 to 7.
The key question arises from the fact that graphic shows with a precooler the T/W ratio of a hydrogen airbreathing engine can be increased by a factor of 3. Will that increase also apply for a jet-fueled turbojet for the thrust to be increased 3 times?
The highest T/W ratio jet engine we have is at ~11.5 in the F135 engine. Then with precooling could the T/W ratio be increased to the range of 35 to 1??? If so, then that would be a radical advancement in the feasibility of an SSTO, since the weight of the jet-engines will be approaching that of rockets while still having the high Isp of airbreathers.
Bob Clark
Is Elon Musk’s Starship Doomed? The future of SpaceX keeps blowing up, and no one knows if he can fix it.
By Jeff Wise, a science journalist and private pilot.
JULY 21, 2025
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article … oomed.html
Bob Clark
I do think a combined-cycle airbreathing+rocket vehicle can work as an SSTO, however there is a key gap in your argument. Looking at the article you cite:
Binbin Lin, Hongliang Pan*, Lei Shi and Jinying Ye
Effect of Primary Rocket Jet on Thermodynamic
Cycle of RBCC in Ejector Mode
Int J Turbo Jet Eng 2017; aop
https://drive.google.com/file/d/16jeWe2 … hP__9/view
it requires scramjet propulsion. But no one has gotten a scramjet to work for more than a few seconds of positive net thrust.
Perhaps you should aim first for ramjet only needed for the upper limits of the airbreathing part of the flight to ca. Mach 5 to 6.
This is the approach aimed for by Skylon. Skylon has been reborn by the way:
INVICTUS: Europe’s Advanced Hypersonic Test Platform by ESA/Frazer-Nash.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwMHvsNCmQE
I am inviting contributions to my LinkedIn group on SSTO here:
SSTO - Single Stage to Orbit.
https://www.linkedin.com/groups/13205030/
Bob Clark
Skylon is set to be reborn:
INVICTUS - Leap into the future of space
https://vimeo.com/1101204441/719f1e7261
A major problem with Skylon was it supposed a hydrogen turbojet and such still does not exist. Another major problem was its $12 billion price tag. Both of those problems can now be resolved. First, adapt an existing jet-fuel turbojet. The American hypersonic transport concern Hermeus is taking that approach.
Better, use cryogenic methane since turbomachinery in general can be switched between hydrocarbon fuels, including natural gas, i.e., methane. The cryogenic methane would also have greater cooling capacity and be lighter than jet-fuel.
About the $12 billion price tag, when REL estimated program costs it used standard NASA cost metrics. But SpaceX and multiple other space start-ups have shown development costs can be cut by a factor of 10 by *private financing*. Then, beyond that, use existing and operational space systems. A well known fact in the space industry is the individual cost of a space system, rocket stage, spacecraft, etc., can be 1/10th to 1/30th of its development cost.
Together, the development cost might be cut down to only $120 million to $40 million(!) See:
From supersonic jet to hypersonic transport. Page 2: F-104 Starfighter.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/ur … 2192621569
I've been informed by a member of the Invictus team that while they will be using Skylon's hydrogen precooler, they will use a COTS(commercial off the shelf) jet engine.
I had suggested using instead of hydrogen a hydrocarbon fuel such as cryogenic methane for the jet engine. The reason is hydrogen-fueled turbojets don't yet exist. In fact the leading company researching them, Rolls Royce, poured cold water on their own research program suggesting one might not be fielded for anther 20 years.
Nothing beats having that engine in front of you where you can experiment with various characteristics of the engine to improve performance. Note this is the route Hermeus is taking with their precooler and jet engine, and why they are already proceeding to flight testing. What the REL team has only been able to do though is simulate the airflow from their precooler to a turbojet intake since the actual hydrogen-fueled engine was not available.
The Invictus team though will be able to do actual engine tests with their design. Still, I'd like to see the trades of their approach of hydrogen precooler with jet-fueled turbojet vs. an all cryogenic methane approach where the precooler and jet engine are both adapted to use cryogenic methane.
To save development costs and time I wanted also to adapt an existing airframe. Using the fact also that fully private financing can cut the development cost by 1/10th, the two factors together of private funding and using existing and operational systems, can cut the development cost by a factor of 1/100 or more, to the $120 million to $40 million range. In the prior post I suggested the F-104 Starfighter. But several different supersonic airframes could be used. For a UK based research program one possibility might be the Saunders-Roe SR.53:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saunders-Roe_SR.53
By swapping out its single jet engine for two of the current highest performance jet engines, it too could reach Mach 5. Note my estimate of ca. $120 million development cost was for a Skylon-sized vehicle of ca. 50 ton dry mass. But these two small jet fighters the F-104 Starfighter and Saunders-Roe SR.53 are at approx. 1/10th that dry mass. Then the development cost might be only in the range of $12 million(!) Admittedly a development cost of a hypersonic transport being that low would be quite remarkable. But note that fully operational F-104's are available for private ownership at less than $100,000. And two high performance jet engines can be obtained for ca. $4 to $5 million each:
From ChatGPT:
____________________________________________________________________________________________
Query: What is price of some recent military jet engines?
Response:
Here’s a breakdown of the unit prices (approximate) of some recent military jet engines, especially those used in current-generation fighter jets. Prices can vary by contract, production batch, and included accessories (like spares or maintenance), but these estimates are in the right range:
? U.S. and Allied Military Jet Engines
Engine Aircraft Estimated Unit Price (USD) Notes
F135-PW-100 /-600 F-35A/B/C (all variants) $12–15 million Most expensive; includes stealth/nozzle tech
F119-PW-100 F-22 Raptor $10–12 million Twin-engine; advanced thrust vectoring
GE F414-GE-400 F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Gripen E ~$4 million Mature, reliable design
F110-GE-129 / -132 F-16 Block 50/52+, F-15 variants $4–5 million Powerful versions used in upgraded fighters
Eurojet EJ200 Eurofighter Typhoon ~$6–8 million Multinational development, modular
Klimov RD-33MK MiG-29K/M ~$3–4 million Russian naval fighter engine
Saturn AL-41F1S Su-35 ~$5–6 million High thrust; precursor to Su-57 engine
Saturn Izdeliye 30 Su-57 (future standard engine) ~$7–10 million (projected) Still under development; thrust vectoring
____________________________________________________________________________________________
Finally the F-104 Starfighter and the Saunders-Roe SR.53 both had variants where actual rockets were attached at the back to increase speed and/or altitude. Then when the purely airbreathing hypersonic flight is achieved, progressing to actual orbital flight could be reached by attaching a separate rocket to the back. Skylons original approach was to incorporate a rocket mode into the airbreathing engine. However, the thrust to weight ratio of rocket engines is so high, only a relatively small amount in payload would be lost by adding a separate rocket engine for the purpose.
Bob Clark
…
Injecting fuel near a ramjet throat has no chance of being successful! You might as well just dump it overboard, because it has no chance to burn. The combustor residence time of 2 to 3 msec is just barely enough to get around 95% of the fuel injected in the inlet burnt. From throat to exit plane the residence time is a tiny fraction of a msec.Besides, the injected fuel streams will have no perceptible effect on the gas flow pattern through the throat, for two reasons: (1) the fuel mass flow is tiny compared to the air mass flow, even if you inject ALL of the fuel there, which you cannot, and (2) the volume of the fuel stream is exceedingly tiny compared to the volume of the air stream, precisely because the density of the liquid is much higher than the gas, and the mass flow of fuel is so small compared to the air.
GW
About injection fuel or oxidizer or even inert gas like nitrogen horizontally from around the sides of the throat, I’m not intending this to burn. It is simply to constrict the size of the area the already combusted gases can pass though to the nozzle. It would be at comparable pressure or higher to how the propellant is injected into the combustion chamber from the feed lines.
Bob Clark
I was on the team that did the variable geometry nozzle work for ASALM. It was not about altitude compensation. It was for lowering inlet supercritical margin in leaned-back cruise. We did it with a lollipop in the ramjet throat, that turned streamline for the big throat area, and turned broadside for the smaller throat area.
…
GW
Can you explain what the supercritical margin referred to? Also, there are variations of this idea of restricting the throat size while keeping the nozzle itself fixed such as the expansion-deflection nozzle:
Another possibility is not to have a physical restriction but to have fuel injection openings around the throat to inject fuel at high pressure to thereby reduce the throat size for the combusted gas to flow through.
Bob Clark
Thanks, GW for the discussion of getting the Isp vs. altitude with adaptive nozzles. I’ll give it a try to see if I can get it to work. I suppose I can test my calculations by first doing it for the Vulcain engine and seeing if I get the same results as that graphic.
In regards, to the extended nozzle being too large for the rocket diameter, there are other ways of doing the altitude compensation. For instance what’s key is the expansion ratio has to vary. This can be done by keeping the nozzle fixed but varying the nozzle throat. This was done for the ASALM ramjet missile for example.
Bob Clark
“Angry Astronaut” had been a strong propellant of the Starship for a Moon mission. Now, he no longer believes it can perform that role. He discusses an alternative architecture for the Artemis missions that uses the Starship only as a heavy cargo lifter to LEO, never being used itself as a lander. In this case it would carry the lunar lander to orbit to link up with the Orion capsule launched by the SLS:
Face facts! Starship will never get humans to the Moon! BUT it can do the next best thing!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vl-GwVM4HuE
That alternative architecture is describes here:
Op-Ed: How NASA Could Still Land Astronauts on the Moon by 2029.
by Alex Longo
This figure provides an overview of a simplified, two-launch lunar architecture which leverages commercial hardware to land astronauts on the Moon by 2029. Credit: AmericaSpace.
https://www.americaspace.com/2025/06/09 … n-by-2029/
Bob Clark
For RGClark re SSTO Engine technology...
Recently kbd512 has been looking at an air breathing system for SSTO.
I am wondering if you might be willing to entertain the idea of using air breathing propulsion for the flight to the top of the atmosphere, followed by traditional rocket engine propulsion. The difficulty of designing for sea level would be eliminated, and the remaining question would be how to design the engine for the optimum performance at the altitude where it begins operation.
In order for you to catch up with kbd512 you might be able to find relevant posts by searching for posts by kbd512.
kbd512 posts in a number of topics, so searching by topic might not work. Or you could just write a note to kbd512 asking for links to relevant posts.
(th)
Yes. We know ramjet propulsion is doable as operational ramjets have been fielded since decades ago. What we haven’t been able to do is scramjets that can work for more than just a few seconds of positive net thrust. But ramjets can operate up to Mach 5+, over 1.600+ m/s. This can subtract off a significant amount of the delta-v needed for orbit. This can certainly work for TSTO where the first stage is airbreathing ramjet, and the upper stage being a rocket. This can cut the cost to space since the airbreathing first stage might be reusable for thousands or reuses.
It might also work for a airbreathing/rocket combined-cycle SSTO. I am investigating this possibility.
Bob Clark
…
Separation-limited vacuum engines (like the current vacuum Raptor) inherently have utterly-lousy sea level thrust! There is simply no way around that! 3x275 + 3x175 = about 1350 tons with all 6 burning at sea level on "Starship". That's thrust/weight only 1.02 at liftoff, which is long known to correspond to gravity losses WAY TO HELL-AND-GONE ABOVE 20% (or more) of LEO speed, not the 5% of an efficient system. Add only 30 tons of payload to this example, and this thing CANNOT budge a single inch off the launch pad, no matter how much propellant it has!
And there is NO ROOM behind it for more engines! Making the tankage hold 1300 or even 1400 tons really does not change that picture very much at all.
All SSTO designs face exactly the same thrust problem as trying to make an SSTO out of "Starship"! You cannot have any more engines, because those added would lie outside the stage diameter! That doubles-or-more your drag, and way-more-than-doubles your drag loss, which with a really clean shape of the right L/D ratio is about 5% of LEO speed.
There is simply way-far-more to this entire question than just Isp and mass ratio in the rocket equation! I have long tried to communicate that, but unsuccessfully!
And by the way, if sea level thrust gets reduced by the backpressure term, so does the corresponding sea level Isp, for the same combustion chamber design and total propellant flow rate. Which is EXACTLY why you need to look at engine/nozzle ballistics, and not just pull Isp's out of some table in some reference.
I have provided the spreadsheet tools and the instructional lessons, for free, to be able to do this work correctly. That's the stuff accessed by links posted right here on these forums.
GW
Can your software calculate the ISP vs. altitude of a sea level Merlin engine given adaptive nozzles? This graphic shows a radical improvement over the standard Vulcain using altitude compensation:
Russian kerosene upper stage engines have reached a max 360s vacuum ISP. So the sea level Merlin given an adaptive nozzles would increase its vacuum ISP from 312s to 360s or above.
Note such an ideally adaptive nozzles would also increase the sea level ISP, as the graphic shows for the Vulcain engine. The reason is fixed nozzle sea level engines are always overexpanded at sea level. This is because the engine designer also wants good performance in vacuum, so they select some intermediate expansion value. This reduces the sea level performance.
Note this means the adaptive nozzles also increases the sea level thrust over the standard engine. Then the adaptive nozzle has the twin benefit of increasing the vacuum ISP as well as reducing gravity drag due to increased thrust.
Bob Clark
Repeated engineering failures stem from the top. An analogy, suppose a wealthy businessman started his own civil engineering company and named himself Chief Engineer, despite his background not being engineering.
OK, it’s his company he can name himself anything he wants. But suppose as Chief Engineer he then proceeds to ignore basic principles of civil engineering. Would anyone be surprised if his buildings and bridges fell down?
Why SpaceX needs a True Chief Engineer.
http://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2025/0 … ineer.html
Bob Clark
Design by smashing may not always work as SpaceX May Be Failing to Get Starship Working at All
"All flight 9 has proven is just how much of a dead end Starship is."SpaceX is still a long way from achieving reusability or a hefty payload capacity. Regarding the former, last week's flight test was the first time SpaceX reused a Super Heavy booster, replacing four of its 33 engines. Regarding the latter, the test had Starship carry a dummy payload of a measly 16 metric tons. Musk has previously promised that Starship will carry 150 tons.
Maybe its time to step back and try for the mid sized rocket....
Another article skeptical of the approach SpaceX is taking on the Starship:
SpaceX rockets keep exploding. Is that normal?
Can a move-fast-and-break-things approach create the next-gen rocket?
by Georgina Torbet
May 31, 2025 at 12:00 PM EDT
https://www.theverge.com/spacex/677355/ … ing-normal
Bob Clark
For GW Johnson...
RGClark just opened a new topic about an Italian company that is (apparently) planning to use a rocket fuel that produces a greater ISP than any rocket created by humans to this point.
My recollection is that among your many publications is one that shows that an ISP greater that 450 can produce desirable results.
If you have a moment or two, please add a post to RGClark's new topic.
Please don't say that the new rocket is not possible with known technology, because clearly the company will be using technology that is new and far beyond anything achieved in the past several thousand years.
Instead, please show what the ISP of the new rocket fuel must be to achieve the desired result.
I assume the ISP must be greater than 450, but perhaps no more than 650?
(th)
I did a search of “RGClark” on the forum, to find posts I hadn’t seen and saw this. I don’t remember it. Perhaps you mean Sidereus that want’s to make a small SSTO:
Sidereus Space Dynamics Complete Integrated Static Fire Test.
https://europeanspaceflight.com/sidereu … fire-test/
Bob Clark
tahanson43206,
…
Inputs
Launch Vehicle: User Defined
Number of Stages: 1
Strap-on Boosters?: No
Dry Mass: 26,372kg
Propellant Mass: 2,185,289kg
Thrust: 33,854kN
Isp: 304.2s (90% of Vacuum Isp for the RD-180)
Default Propellant Residuals?: Yes
Restartable Upper Stage?: No
Payload Fairing Mass: 0kg
Launch Site: Cape Canaveral (USA)
Destination: Earth Orbit, Apogee 185km, Perigee 185km, Inclination: 45 degreesOutputs
Launch Vehicle: User-Defined Launch Vehicle
Launch Site: Cape Canaveral / KSC
Destination Orbit: 185 x 185 km, 45 deg
Estimated Payload: 78,854kg
95% Confidence Interval: 58,892kg - 103,231kg,922
...
That mass ratio of nearly 100 to 1 may be too optimistic. The Falcon 9 first stage for instance gets about 20 to 1. You might be able to raise that to 30 to 1 using carbon-fiber tanks or the specialty high-strength steels on the Starship that SpaceX says matches carbon-fiber.
Bob Clark