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There's a You Tube vid for people like me who couldn't access those vids on Space.com
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uOk6XoOfx-o
Musk seems v. focussed on the rocketry and transportation, which is all very well.
But my focus is much more on what the humans do on Mars when they get there. There won't be a condo for them to move into, which is sometimes how Musk makes it sound. Living on Mars will be extremely challenging, on a par with living on Antarctica all year round.
It's great to think big but is he really planning to land 100 people on Mars, people who have largely volunteered to settle the planet. That's a huge logistical challenge, and so far he's not really provided evidence he's thought through it, which is not to say he hasn't...
I still feel there must surely be some sort of smaller start-up mission which will precede the 100 person drop!
An article here:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ … ars-colony
Glad to see he's running with our ideas! lol
But yep, fuelling the big interplantary transporter in earth orbit makes sense. Then you can reuse the transporter. And making methane (presumably) from water and carbon dioxide on Mars makes sense.
I still feel his numbers are a bit ambitious. Does he really mean to take in 100 people from the get go. There doesn't seem to be any sort of intermediate stage...
I just feel it makes more sense to have smaller sets of pioneers, gradually laying the infrastructure groundwork.
I am not saying his approach is impossible, but it must be very expensive, because it means you need to fly in a hell of a lot of infrastructure in my view, and it will be an Earth-dependent infrastructure in my view. To get a 100 person base established immediately just doesn't feel right to me.
For one thing, it throws in another set of problems - group dynamics. There's no way you can really control a group of that size without military style discipline.
Has he thought that all through? The 100 are supposed to be permanent colonists I believe, but that raises huge problems in itself. I think it's more important to have permanent settlement to begin with rather than permanent colonists.
Personally I would favour beginning with much smaller mission, but doubling up every couple of years - maybe six personnel for the first mission, then 12, 24, 48 etc. I think the aim would be first to get a well established R&D community with people returning to Earth after a 2 year tour.
Yes the continuous PV panels are a good idea - not unlike the "electric roads" idea, if you know about that.
knightdepaix wrote:An old idea of steam locomotive could be revive on Mars. Can the Boudouard reaction of carbon monoxide exergonic convertion to carbon dioxide and carbon can be used for driving engine ? At the beginning, the locomotive stores pressurized carbon monoxide which was made using geothermal, nuclear or solar enegy and shipped from local power plant. When the train is running, due to low Martian temperature, the exergonic reaction from CO to CO2 is favored. The heated CO2 exhaust under pressure exhaust is the energy source for locomotive. The carbon byproduct removed at next train station and CO is refueled. The carbon is collected and returned to power plant to regenerate CO using Martian atmospheric CO2.
Why not use stored carbon and liquid O2 as fuel? Or for that matter, liquid methane and liquid O2? As a rule, you want the highest energy density possible between refuellings. Another option might be banks of those super lightweight solar panels that Louis was talking about, feeding energy directly into a third rail. That way, your vehicle carries no fuel and is lighter and you have no conversion losses. With so little atmosphere and no moisture, losses will be low.
Yes. That may well be right but we are talking about overall efficiencies here..so if we can generate the PV film on Mars with little labour input, that beats importing the energy generation facility through rocket to LEO to LMO to Mars surface.
Loius for, The first link for mars would generate only 4 - 20 watts for the square meter.....with the current rovers yielding around 120 Watts for that same meter.....
Mention was made elsewhere that it would be difficult to manufacture PV panels on Mars. However this article suggests that it might be easier than one would think.
http://www.3ders.org/articles/20150629- … areas.html
At least, there is no reason why one couldn't have a 3D printer transported to Mars.
The issue then is probably how do we provide the materials for the 3D printer. Here is a description of the purification process for creatine PV grade silicon:
http://www.pveducation.org/pvcdrom/manu … ng-silicon
We might have to concentrate CO2 from the atmosphere and then separate off the carbon.
Here's one method:
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/5407 … f-from-it/
Glass or polymer production would also be required.
It would be complex but with the right imported machines, I think a fairly small Mars community - let's say perhaps 50 plus people could have the resources to manufacture PV cells directly without having to import them from Earth.
This would enable the colony to grow more quickly.
The great thing about small 3D printers is that you can keep expanding. After a while you can bring in 3D printers to print most of the parts for a 3D PV panel printer, so eventually you hardly need to import anything from Earth in order to produce electricity generation facilities on Mars.
Your idea about compressed soil blocks is very interesting - I wasn't aware that is an option on Mars. It certainly needs looking into.
However, I think you are failing to properly assess the energy question. The fact is that the early colonists will always have an abundance of energy at their disposal and it won't be costly in terms of the overall mission. With super-light PV panelling available at 5 grams per square metre, and a $1000 per kg launch cost (as the basis for overall cost of delivery to Mars), I would estimate that the cost of delivering 10,000 square metres of PV panelling with all associated equipment (e.g. cabling, inverters, batteries and so on) to the Mars surface would come in at under $5 million - and that is in comparison with an overall mission cost for mission one of perhaps $20,000 million. In other words, the comparative cost is miniscule. You could double your PV provision, and it would have hardly any effect on overall mission cost, which relates far more to development costs, and the huge array of support staff back on Earth. [Incidentally my calculations assume that once on Mars we would use PV energy to manufacture methane as the best form of energy storage for Mars - as opposed to importing heavy lithium batteries - so I think we would only need about 500 kgs of battery storage, in addition to what you would have in your spacecraft.]
Once you are on planet Mars, the real measure of cost is labour time (because Mars colonists will have a huge range of tasks to undertake and there is not an endless supply of labour). That's the great thing about PV energy - it involves very little labour input to operate. And we have plenty of (good) experience of operating with PV panels on Mars. So, to substitute PV energy for labour makes sense.
The problem with natural light greenhouses, is (a) they require a huge labour input in terms of construction (because the construction requirements will be far more complex than for cut and cover and because they will need to be over a much larger area) and (b) they will require a lot more labour input for the food production process.
With artificially lit indoor farming, all inputs can be strictly controlled (by computer) to deliver a perfect result in terms of food production. With natural light there will be natural weather variation within the climate parameters, meaning that you will have to monitor all your food plants to see how they are doing, and make assessments accordingly - after which you will have to make decisions about how to respond and then you will need to respond. Even just walking around a natural light facility will take a lot more time than a tiered covered facility. You can have as much as 4 or 5 tray layers for some plants within one building.
Artificial illumination of crops is power hungry and for a long time on Mars, electricity isn't going to be cheap. Meteorites won't be a problem - the Martian atmosphere is thick enough to burn up anything smaller than half an inch in diameter. The odds of getting hit by something bigger are slim.
Dust is likely to be problematic. The atmosphere is dry and thin and fine dust particles blown off the surface will tend to pick up static charge. They will stick to anything non-conductive and removing them from transparent surfaces will require constant effort. On the other side of things, the dryness of the Martian environment offers advantages that do not exist on Earth. We can make domes from compressed soil blocks, run light tubes through them and cap them at both ends with glass panes. A layer of dust and rock would add counter weight against the internal pressure. This could turn out to be a very cheap way of making habitable space, as a compressed soil block machine can produce hundreds of blocks per hour and consumes a fraction of the energy needed to produce baked blocks. It would work well on Mars thanks to the fine clay-like soil and the lack of moisture. Domes hundreds of metres in diameter are possible.
When manufacturing is up and running on Mars, pressurised greenhouses can be produced from repeatable hexagonal steel frames with glass panes doped to screen out UV. The frames can be anchored to the ground using steel ropes or tendons. The edges of the greenhouse will be sealed against internal pressure by thick berms of compressed soil. This might be easiest if the edges were excavated.
Having reflected on this, I think where there would be merit is having a Mars Design Group which could feed ideas to Space X about colonisation, ISRU and so on. That might have real value if it was well organised. I suppose that's a little bit like the original Mars Underground movement if people have read about that.
An MDG wouldn't try to come up with a complete plan, but rather would be a conduit for good, practical, innovative ideas.
A brilliant achievement! Space X are now realising their full potential and knocking spots off the opposition.
Looks like they are on a swift trajectory to early Mars colonisation - mid 2020s - with the first landing of a Space X craft on Mars in 2018.
We have some very exciting times coming up! Wouldn't we all love to see Musk's detailed plans for Colony One!
I think we are well past this point. The reality is there is one guy - Elon Musk - who believes in the viability of Mars development and is determined to establish a colony there. More importantly he is generating hundreds of millions of dollars every year which he can divert into Mars colonisation (and of course his business interests - cheap space rockets and cheap batteries - are a perfect fit for Mars exploration).
The moment for space advocacy groups to take the lead is past. Had Z*brin been a more dynamic person, he might have led us forward 10-20 years ago. But the moment was lost.
I think we should simply unite behind Musk who I think will get there sooner than most people think.
We definitely need to unite!
I'm no war fanatic, but the old tactic of 'divide and conquer' definitely applies here. Our enemy is doubt. Doubt is everywhere I read about Mars exploration. Investors doubt that there will be profits. Politicians doubt that it will get them reelected. Even some Mars Society members doubt that their donations will actually get humans to Mars.
Now, I know that the many space exploration advocacy groups have widely differing goals. That is why they are not united. Putting them all together would only cause problems. But, the doubt still persists. This doubt may not destroy these organizations, but it greatly slows their progress.
What we need is to find a common goal. I think the one goal that all of these groups has is 'cheap access to space'. Once that cheap access is developed each organization could simply buy a ticket to Low Earth Orbit and pursue their varied goals from there. And, once they all work together and produce a system for cheap access to space, the afformentioned doubts will be greatly overcome.
Here's what I suggest. First, we all form a separate company to develope the cheapest way to get to LEO. (I assume this would employ 100% reusable vehicles, but we'll let the engineers decide that.) Second, each group invests a portion of its membership dues to this cause. This would have to be done year after year until our goal is met. Third, once the transportation system is designed, each contributing organization (or anyone else) can use it for whatever it wants to do.
Doing this would overcome two of the biggest obstactles:
Earth's Gravity - and the high cost of escaping it, and
Doubt - and the lack of investment and support that it creates.
RD - I heard you but it would only produce oxygen as long as not hit by a meteorite strike. End of your "fail safe" system if it is.
There are lots of ways, as I have already explained and as you note in your description of the ISS, of squaring off the risk of oxygen failure, for instance having a 100 separate separate oxygen cylinders, oxygen making machines, oxygen candle stores, oxide burning furnaces etc in and around the settlement.
I don't know why you keep saying power is a single point of failure. It would only be if you had something like a single nuclear reactor or a single solar mirror. My vision is that you would have several different power systems including storage systems. Under this approach
you would have separate PV systems with their own inverters and cabling etc So maybe for a colony of six you would perhaps have 3 or four separate PV systems placed at some distance from each other. In addition you would have significant battery storage, able to keep the colony going on emergency power for weeks. Furthermore, I think we would pre-land methane and also produce methane as soon as we get to Mars - so there would be large-scale methane storage which could power the colony for months. As further back-up you might have small wind turbines that could be erected at short notice. I've read about burning metals - this seems like a viable additional form of power storage. We can also take along some small nuclear reactors - RTGs - if further assurance is required.
I don't think water acquisition will be a problem at all on Mars and storage (as ice) will be easy.
When I hear plans for natural light farming on Mars I think "That's the Planet Earth way of feeding yourself. We need a new model for Mars."
louis: I already told you. A greenhouse is the only life support system that produces oxygen during complete power failure. Power is a single point of failure. Claiming it isn't doesn't make it so. I've already detailed life support:
ISS system: oxygen electrolysis, Sabatier reactor, regenerable CO2 sorbent, water recycling
auxiliary: direct CO2 electrolysis
bottled O2
bottled whole air
oxygen candles
spacesuitsThis can be mixed and matched in interesting ways. ISPP includes MACDOF (Mars Atmosphere Carbon DiOxide Freezer) to harvest CO2 from Mars atmosphere. It also includes direct CO2 electrolysis, but the hab will also have direct CO2 electrolysis for life support. Equipment from ISPP can be used to augment life support.
A permanent settlement will require water, so a water source of some sort: permafrost, glacier, frozen pack ice. That Mars ice will be melted and filtered for lie support and to supply the greenhouse. It will be recycled, after all recycling requires less energy than harvesting salty, muddy ice from Mars. But if we run short, get more. That water can be run into the electrolysis tank to produce oxygen.
However, the single point of failure in all this is power. It is a single point of failure. Stored oxygen, whole air, and candles will only last so long. If power failure lasts too long, astronauts will die. The solution is ambient light greenhouse.
The greenhouse will not only produce food, it will produce oxygen. And water evaporates from leaves, that humidity will condense on cold windows. Water filtered by plants is far cleaner and better tasting than the best filtration system humans have ever devised. Simply putting a trough along the bottom of windows will collect that condensate, producing clean tasting water. And it doesn't use power, sunlight heats the greenhouse and powers plants, cold of Mars air condenses humidity. As long as sun shines and Mars is cold this will recycle water. Well, you still have to process sewage into grey water to water the soil. That can also have a manual backup, operating with no power what so ever.
Whenever anyone says "we will use indoor farming" what I hear is "we will be stuck on Earth".
Well it's both, in the sense that you need to build up an agricultural surplus as quickly as possible. Again, it is artificially lit indoor farming that will generate the required range of foodstuffs in the shortest possible time.
I would agree that with a small community you would have a close match between menu and farming. The beauty is that with indoor farming this can all be controlled by computer programmes that can allocate growth periods and draw up menus accordingly.
Loius its not the number of growing season as so much what gets grown simutainously that gives you a complete supply of all food types to create meals from....matching cycles to provide just the right amount of each so that any surplus is then canned or preserved for later use in other forms rather than just in raw form...
If it takes x time to grow letuce and you want cucumbers for it then y for cucumbers need to time out such that the cycles match within reason to allow for that meal...this is one of the reasosn that I have said that we need to have a menu with the growing cycles put into practice here first to help guide how we will start growing and continuing to grow without wasting food....
I agree about worst case planning. That's why you would already have enough food in the form of dried, frozen and vaccuum packed that would already be at the surface when your 6 colonists arrived. I really don't think emergency oxygen would be a problem. One would land several separate kits able to make oxygen from water and have a good stock of oxygen candles for immediate emergency use. The thing about PV panels is they are NOT a single point of failure. You can have several different systems. As long as you have battery storage (again, there won't be a single battery) your power will not fail. Even in dust storms there is still light getting through (I think 20% of annual average is the worst I have seen), so as long as you have a significant over capacity (over the average requirement that is), that will not be a problem.
I don't doubt that natural light agriculture is possible, but I think in the early stages of the colony it makes more sense to go with artificial light (a) precisely because there is less likelihood of crop failure - conditions will be optimal (b) because the construction effort required is far less (i.e. we won't need sophisticated pressured environments over huge areas - we can use simple cut and cover techniques) and (c) because humans will be fully protected from radiation in the case of indoor farming,and so can about their work in light suits rather than protective gear.
louis: When engineering anything, you have to plan for the worst case. With a bicycle, failure means you stop and walk. A habitat on Mars provides air to breathe, lack of life support means death. You can't evacuate back to Earth until the next launch opportunity, which could be many months away, and multiple months in space before you're back on Earth. Ambient light greenhouse is the only life support system that provides oxygen during complete power loss. Any other system makes power a single point of failure. Talk to GW Johnson about "single point of failure".
GW Johnson: I've posted many times that the atmosphere of Mars blocks heavy ion galactic cosmic radiation. Documents from NASA say 90% at a high altitude location, like Meridiani Planum, and 98% at a low altitude location like Elysium Planetia. GCR is solved by landing on Mars. Beta radiation is blocked by epidermis of human skin, and easily blocked by a single sheet of plastic film. Alpha is blocked by a piece of aluminum foil, or metalized coating on greenhouse windows. That metal is there to block UV radiation, UV-C is dangerous but easily blocked by the same coating that NASA has put on spacecraft and station windows since Apollo. That same coating blocks Alpha. There's negligible X-rays in space, the little that exists is blocked by that same metalized coating. That leaves proton, light ion, and gamma. All blocked by regolith, but all easily manageable. By putting 2 metres or more regolith on the roof of a habitat, that blocks radiation from the hab. Which means radiation in a plastic film greenhouse is equal to a spacesuit. To limit radiation exposure to equal a nuclear reactor worker in the US, limit time outside (including greenhouse) to 40 hours per week. Is that really bad? That's a work week.
Radiation on the surface of Mars is half that of ISS. So no regolith on the roof at all is still a manageable risk. A science mission would do something like Mars Direct, which would include sandbags to be filled with regolith and piled on the roof. Not 2+ metres thick, but a lot more than nothing. So the fact radiation on the surface of Mars with no radiation protection what so ever is half that of ISS, then this makes a science mission quite feasible.
Yes - tiers (I referred to artificial light). Energy will not be a problem on Mars. At a rough guesstimate I'd say PV panels at 20% efficiency need to cover a minimum area of 240 feet by 240 feet or 73x73 metres to generate the wheat for 6 people. 73x73 metres is 5329 square metres, which is a lot of panelling but we now have ultrathin and lightweight solar panels - down to 5 grams per sq metre. Let's assume that with protective screening that's 10 grams per sq metre - that gives us 53290 grams or 53 kgs. Obviously there would be associated equipment (cabling, inverters, and battery storage to ensure an even power supply). I expect that could all come in at under 2 tonnes, maybe even under 1 tonne.
By using artificially lit indoor farming you avoid a lot of difficult construction work in producing the surface structures - instead you can use diggers to dig out suitable hab space for indoor farming.
louis wrote:But you can further divide that by two I would say as I think we could have two tiers of dwarf wheat growing in a single hab.
Tiers? You can't grow tiers with natural light. If you use artificial light, you need power. What's the source of power? Solar panels? So solar panels that currently convert sunlight into electricity with 28.5% efficiency, then LED lights with overall luminous efficiency (including power supply losses) up to 22%. As opposed to ambient light that does not require any conversion, so 100%. Actually, glass is not 100% transparent, and a greenhouse needs a filter to remove UV, so it's 84-85% efficient. Mars has 47% as much light as Earth, so I said to build your greenhouses long and narrow, with a mirror along both long sides. The greenhouse would be twice as wide as high, and top of mirrors would be the same height above ground as the top of the greenhouse, so as much light comes from the mirrors as directly from the Sun, that doubles illumination. Long/narrow because light that reflects off a mirror at dawn will just shine into the greenhouse further down, move to perpendicular to reflection point at high noon, and further up the greenhouse at dusk. So mirrors do not have to track the Sun. Mirror angle will have the change with season, but that means change by 1% every second week. Very simple, no need for solar panels, no need for LED lighting. Manufacturing glass windows and mirrors is far less intensive than manufacturing solar panels and lights.
Besides, during power failure, ambient light just keeps going and going and going and...
http://www.superlaugh.com/1/ebunny2.gif
I think 24 could build habitat and basic life support for 100 in just one launch window. How could that be done? I would say by using Mars materials - in particularly Mars bricks. Brick manufacture could be largely automated. Then use cut and cover techniques - i.e. dig a trench (with a robot digger) and then cover with Roman brick arches. After that you cover over the arch with Mars regolith. In terms of energy I think initially we will just import lightweight PV panels and batteries that will provide more than enough energy for the young community. That technique will provide plenty of hab space for living and for farming. The main issue I think is air locks. That needs more research. It might be that we can develop ice doors - so when you want a hab area sealed, you freeze water; when you want it unlocked you melt ice and then let the water drain away. Manufacturing air locks on Mars may be tricky - although perhaps materials like basalt could be used.
As the colony grows I think they should soon be in a position to manufacture their own energy production facilities: solar reflectors (e.g. polished steel parabolic mirrors which can concentrate solar radiation on to boilers) and steam boilers (with just a few parts imported from Earth). The steam boilers can then be used to generate electricity.
Producing enough water for life support should be relatively easy and basic water recycling should help.
As regards oxygen/earth air production, I imagine it would still make sense to largely import that equipment from Earth.
I assumed it starts with a series of temporary expeditions of 4 people, all of whom return to Earth. The first expeditions leave infrastructure: habitats, solar panels, rovers, small plastic film greenhouses. Then the first permanent settlement starts with 12, then just supplies with the next launch window. Perhaps a change of 4 crew members. Then add 12 the next launch window. Could a settlement of 24 build habitat and life support for 100 in just one launch window? Of course I envision something like this...
http://www.marshome.org/images2/albums/ … l_TOT5.JPG
http://www.marshome.org/images2/albums/ … age022.jpg
http://www.marshome.org/images2/albums/ … age023.jpg
I am assuming your figures come from natural growing conditions on Earth (i.e.one crop per annum) . But if you grow wheat indoors under artificial light on Mars you can have 3 crops in one Earth Year (as the growing season is about 120 days). On that basis you can divide by 3 your area - that gives you about 4,800 sq foot. But you can further divide that by two I would say as I think we could have two tiers of dwarf wheat growing in a single hab. So that takes you down to 2,400 sq foot or just under 50 x 50 feet - maybe add on another 50% for access, storage and life support equipment = 3600 sq foot or 60 x 60 feet.
Let's see what happens with Wheat with a small settlement that starts out with 6 people and adds 12 people after every launch window. I assume that the colonists will not have kids until the settlement reaches a population of at least 100 at the earliest, thus negating any possibility of natural reproduction.
I assume that the wheat needs for the Original 6 would be imported with them for the first 6 months, which as SpaceNut said would be around 450 lb. However, afterwards they would need to grow their wheat. As I have calculated before, a colony of 100 would need 5.54 acres for their wheat per growing season; extrapolated to the 6, this would be 0.3324 acres, or 14,479.344 square feet. Each influx of 12 would add 28,958.688 square feet to this necessity. For clearer reference, 14,479.344 square feet is a square of slightly more than 120 ft by 120 ft, and 28,958.688 square feet is likewise a square of slightly more than 170 ft by 170 ft; however, the initial influx of 12 people would add to the initial 120 ft by 120 ft square 88 ft to each side, and the next addition would add slightly less than 61 ft to each side of that square, and so on, so it is entirely feasible for the colonists to overgrow to accompany potential future settlers, especially with the long shelf lives of flour that RobertDyck posted.
I think this is going to be the breakthrough mission! Musk is going to take us into the post-NASA, post-Rover era. It is going to be incredibly interesting. He is going to crack the landing problem spectacularly. He is going to send back way more data about the surface. He is going to surprise us with a whole series of novel experiments including greenhousing. It's going to be great!
By his actions, he will demonstrate that Mars is a new human stage, just waiting for people to walk in from the wings.
Brilliant news! I think we can be sure Musk will be thinking out of the box, so there will be surprises along the way. He may be looking to land his greenhouse experiment which was why he got interested in Mars in the first place. I wouldn't be surprised if Musk will also seek to improve on the sort of visual data that gets sent back...I wonder whether that is technically feasible. I hope so. I am sure Musk realises how he could really get the public on side if he can send back some stunning video of the planet!
Leaving aside your personal story (though interesting) I don't agree Mars should go vegan. In any case this will soon be a non-debate because we will be able to grow artificial meat (in fact that is already being done). I imagine that is likely to be the way Mars goes: developing artificial meat industries and cuisine.
One concern: Vegans. The local chapter of the Mars Society had a wanna-be vegan, and I have a few vegan friends. When I talked about Mars being purely vegan, they liked that. But carnivorous members didn't. So I mentioned transporting fertilized chicken eggs, and hibernating cattle; but only after the settlement has a population of about 1,000. Carnivorous members liked that, but vegans didn't. Then the "Cabbage Girls" from PETA showed at an event where Elon Musk spoke. Elon said he isn't the "Overlord of Mars". Sorry Elon, I'm the one who stirred up the vegans.
One lady my age joined the local science fiction club. When I was in college, I found girlfriends there. I was a way for me to get to know a girl before screwing up the courage to ask her for a date. Membership of the club in early 1980s was several hundred, but in the 21st century it dwindled to a couple dozen. Most married or with someone. When a very pretty, single woman with common interests joined the club, I got interested. She was interested in spending time with me. She also was financially "stressed". She had a business walking dogs, vegan and glucose intolerant. (Not a good combination.) She also had a tiny older house. At one point she said her parents held the mortgage to her house, asked me to sell my house, pay off the mortgage of her house, and move in with her. Uh, what! That's forward. That's something a husband would do. I had spent some time with her, but we hadn't had a "date" yet, and hadn't even kissed. I wanted to get to know her first. Then I discovered she had a boyfriend; he lived in another province, flew into our city on statutory holidays. My house is tiny and older, but I completely paid off the mortgage. Equity in this house represents my entire life savings. She wants me to do basically kill myself, and became what? I'm sure she would kick me out of her house as soon as her boyfriend came back to town. So no. And to emphasize *NO*! I won't do that. She's still a friend, but just a friend. However, she's vegan. Purely vegan. She's also a Facebook friend so I get a lot of Facebook stuff. I have a politician friend who's vegan, and know several other activists who are vegan. They're quite passionate. Making Mars purely vegan would attract those people.
I've tried to be a politician. I won the nomination in my electoral district for one of the two major political parties in Canada for the 2008 federal election. That's when my serious problems began. Someone seriously buried me. But with the goal of attracting the most people, since Mars must be mostly vegan anyway, why not be purely vegan? That would attract the vegans to our cause?
My observations would be that as regards chickens they would be a nightmare in an air conditioned environment what with dust, feathers and dried faecal matter. They are also notoriously liable to disease and birds can spread diseases to humans. Even if the disease element could be significantly reduced through special breeding and quarantine over several years, I think the risk and the difficulties of keeping chickens in a confined environment are just too great.
Food provision will I would suggest evolve gradually. There's no need to go to a vegan diet, as humans will bring with them plenty of frozen, vaccuum packed and dried meat/eggs/milk. However, I agree that in order to save on transit costs, the first settlers will be on a low meat diet and there would be more focus on vegetables, nuts and pulses.
Software programmes for the farm habs should be able to deliver ideal growing conditions from day 1. Initially I imagine the focus will be on easy to grow items like salad vegetables such as lettuce and bean shoots.
When the time comes to develop ISRU animal farming, I think guinea pigs would probably be an ideal first choice, being small, manageable and low maintenance (and they could probably process a lot of the waste food).
Would you like to justify your statement that Nixon was not the Republican nominee in 1968? Everything I have read states clearly he was.
Nixon also called Apollo a ridiculous stunt. He was elected on a platform that he had a secret plant to end the Vietnam war early. His secret plan was to raid NASA, give that money to the military. His surge in Vietnam didn't work. NASA never recovered.
Richard Nixon was Republican, but he was not the Republican nominee. He ran independently. Sound familiar?
Well, Robert, I have to accept your technical understanding is far superior to mine. But I look at this in more broad brush terms. If the Nazis had shown no interest in rocket development by 1945, rocket development would have gone nowhere. It was only because there was that intense voluntary effort that rockets went from something like toys in the early 30s to almost game changers by the mid 40s. Take away the Nazi rocket development programme and from 1945 it would probably have been impossible to land someone on the moon until maybe the late seventies. Application of effort is crucial in my view.
That is optimistic; and yes it is the kind of thinking that allowed NASA to achieve what it did. I just don't think 1960s computers or alloys were up to it. They didn't have friction stir welding. Didn't have aluminum-lithium alloy. Didn't have graphite fibre composite for landing legs. Yes, the modern F-1B engine proposed for advanced boosters of SLS perform exactly the same as F-1A engines available in 1969. Yes, the F-1A was just as good. But, these other things were necessary to get it to work.
I think it's that sort of attitude that stymied space development. Robotically controlled VTOL aircraft were around in the mid 1950s. Are you really claiming that if we hadn't thrown billions of dollars and our best minds at the problem we couldn't have cracked it. I just don't believe that. The point for me is that because of the way NASA's priorities went it was never an economic necessity to get a stage landing in place. It would have become one if we (or the USA to be more specific) had gone for a lunar colony policy.
Don't rewrite history. There's no way you could land a stage with 1960s technology. It took SpaceX several attempts with 2015/2016 technology.
I think if the Apollo programme had continued, everything would be different: there would have been inbuilt focus on human off-planet colonisation. Far less money would have been wasted on the Space Shutttle, because the need for regular supply would have forced NASA to look for cheaper alternatives. By now we would have lunar hotels and lunar tourism with the super-rich paying tens of millions of dollars to visit the historic Apollo 11 landing site. And because of the inbuilt focus on human colonisation, we would progressed to the first stages of Mars colonisation by now, making use of the experience garnered on the moon.
Sadly a lot of ignorant comments about Mars there! Exactly how much water does a community of say 100 on Mars actually need? Answer - hardly any with water recycling. But there is plenty of evidence for huge ice glaciers and the like. And energy will be so abundant that the Mars settlers can afford to expend far more energy than we would on securing a basic resource like water.
Some rather silly comments about resources on Mars there.
What If NASA Had Continued Its Lunar Program?
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In this handout photo provided by NASA, U.S. astronaut Edwin E. ‘Buzz’ Aldrin, Jr., Lunar Module pilot on Apollo 11, poses for a portrait taken in July 1969. He and mission Commander Neil Armstrong were the first persons to land on the Moon. (Photo by NASA via Getty Images)This question originally appeared on Quora – the knowledge sharing network where compelling questions are answered by people with unique insights.
Answer by Robert Walker on Quora:
Could we have established a colony on the moon if NASA’s lunar program had continued?
Oh, I think quite possibly. They’d have found the ice and carbon dioxide and ammonia and other volatiles in the permanently shadowed craters at the poles. Also, the lunar caves, which may be up to 5 kilometers in diameter, and the peaks of almost eternal light at the poles, ideal for temperature and solar power.
The moon actually looks rather favorable indeed, compared to Mars nowadays, now that we know of those resources.
There may be hundreds of millions of tons of ice there, and also many millions of tons of CO2 and ammonia. And the peaks of eternal light have the most continuous sunlight available on any large body in the inner solar system (apart from possibly Mercury), and they have steady temperatures, varying by only ten degrees C either way. The average temperature may seem rather chilly (at -50° C), but that’s warm enough to let you keep a habitat at a comfortable temperature of 20° C with aid of a solar collector.
The caves on the moon are also a unique resource, as they have the potential to be far larger than caves on Earth or Mars due to the low gravity. Larger even than city domes.
There are also many metals available. And 0.5% of the soil is pure iron, which can be separated by a magnet. The soil is very fertile, tested by growing plants in actual real lunar soil.
So — they wouldn’t know any of this, of course, but I think that if they’d continued with the explorations after Apollo 17 in this alternative past history, they’d have found it all out in the 1970s. We can never know what would have happened then, and can’t say if it would have been a better history, but yes, I think that this might well have led to permanent long-term bases on the moon by now.
I think it’s also the obvious place to go next today.
Mars does have ice, but — if you think about melting it all — do remember that it has large areas of desert, dry for a long way down in the equatorial regions. Though there is water chemically locked in the sand, it’s still as dry as our Sahara, and is not just a smooth ball. Much of the water would drain away into the desert sands. And it doesn’t have much ice compared to Earth. Not only does it have much less than the water in our oceans, it’s got only a fraction of the total amount of ice in Antarctica too. It had oceans in the past. Nobody really knows what happened, but the latest evidence from the Maven spacecraft suggests that most of it was lost into space. A small amount might have ended up in the deep hydrosphere kilometers below the surface.
There is also ice in the equatorial regions of Mars, deep underground, and again we are not sure how much. I’m not at all sure you could create oceans there if you raised the temperature somehow. Also, that would need large planet-scale mirrors or massive industrial levels of production of greenhouse gases as part of a project that would last thousands of years – and with much that could go wrong. There is no way you’d change the planet over a decades-long timescale or even a century or two by these methods. On Earth it took hundreds of millions of years, and that is in an orbit much closer to the sun than Mars.
The moon at any rate has many advantages over Mars. It’s much closer, far easier to supply, and easier for rescue efforts if they are needed. As rich in resources as Mars, I’d say, for up to thousands of people at least, and the peaks of eternal light particularly are amongst the most hospitable places you could hope for outside of Earth. The long-term effects of lunar gravity is a big unknown, but that’s also true for Mars, and you can’t just draw a straight line between Earth and zero G. The human body is complex, with many interacting systems that would respond differently to different gravity levels. So, it could be that lunar gravity is better for you than Mars G, or worse, or that different gravity levels may be optimal for different age groups or health conditions, or there may be individual variation. There is no way to know except with experiments.
So, I think based on these recent discoveries about the moon, which they could have discovered in the 1970s if they had kept going — you can present as good a case for near-term settlement of the moon as for Mars, and perhaps a better case, since it is so close to Earth.
So yes, they could have set up a moon settlement. Not sure if you would really call it a colony, as it would surely be dependent on Earth for many things. Nowhere in space is anything as hospitable as Antarctica or our driest, coldest, harshest deserts, and we don’t colonize those. I think it would have been more like a settlement-type base, not a colony — and not approaching self-sufficiency, at least not yet. Like an Antarctic base, you’d have many people on Earth to support each person on the moon. But the explorers and scientists in the base would be finding many things of value on the moon by now, making it worthwhile for us to support them, just as we do with scientists and others in Antarctica.
I have often argued here that a portion of the NASA budget (probably about 25%) should be hived off and used to create a Mars and Moon Settlement Agency. I think it would be better to have it as a separate agency rather than a US dept of state because it would then be easier for the Agency to receive funds from other space agencies around the world to fund Mars and Lunar settlement. NASA as it stands has way too many objectives and this is getting in the way of the crucial objective of creating a new off-Earth human civilisation.
Compared with 50 years ago there are now many more super-rich people on Planet Earth who can afford to pay say $500,000 for a once in a lifetime trip to the moon with a 3 day stay in a lunar hotel, incorporating Rover trip to the Apollo 11 site. I think we must be getting close to a situation where such trips become viable - cheap flights to orbit in maybe a 20 person craft ; reusable transfer to the moon; 5 person lunar landers. Maybe initially the ticket price will be higher, in the 2 million dollar range.
louis wrote:Brilliant news! Congrats to everyone at Space X for this marvellous achievement. The era of cheap space travel beckons...
Can lunar hotels be far behind? I don't think so.
Why not? If you can pay the cost of rockets over multiple trips instead of just one, then that makes space tourism achievable. Do you think rocket fuel is the primary cost of space travel? The thing that's holding us back is the cost of Space Travel. NASA really hasn't addressed to cost of getting into orbit for several decades! the main stumbling block is we haven't got a vehicle that can reach orbit in a single stage, then land and be used again. SpaceX simply recognizes the fact that single-stage to orbit is not worth pursuing, and has instead pursued multiple reusable stages to orbit instead, We have spent billions on trying to achieve the former, and the former is not really achievable with chemical rockets, and we are unwilling to go nuclear!