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Hi Cobra, long time no see.
The thing is, we know what he wants. He is saying that the FAA needs to regulate the type of spacecraft, the health of the passengers, and the launch facility. I don't have to much of an issue with the FAA regulating the launch facility, but if they start putting limits on what and who can fly, the entire industry will move overseas. If the FAA puts even the slightest resistance into the process, then there's no reason for it to remain in the US. We will be effectivly exporting a multibillion dollar industry to some lucky contry.
An RLV is certainly possible deagle, what I am trying to get through to you is that there are unchanging physical limtations (gravity, fuel energy density, reentry dynamics) which make spaceflight difficult.
No amount of innovation or cleverness or efficent business practices will change these, so the entire concept that AltSpace is centerd around... that someone will conjur up some trick without any revolutionary technology that will suddenly change everything... is simply not grounded in reality.
It really is against the laws of physics to make a cheap spaceship
And if it is difficult, then it is not going to be cheap to develop a vehicle that does difficult things well. Right now, a billion dollars is simply not that much money compared to what it would cost to make a true reliable RLV of any size. Could we make a real RLV in 20 years? Sure we could. But it would not come cheap... $8-10Bn for a small crew/comsat vehicle, $15-20Bn for a larger bus/medium-lift, are not unrealistic estimates. Below $5Bn, to say nothing of $1Bn, is simply not going to happen.
I don't think you give me or most people on here enough credit GCNR. I never said it was easy or that it could be done for 1B. What i was pointing out is that with the intial interest in Virgin Galactic they are poised to make 3B in profit even if they go over budget 200%. That's 3B to start developing an orbital spacecraft or at least a larger suborbital craft.
I wouldn't be suprised if the final fully orbital version includes a high altitude balloon capable of reaching 60 miles altitude or some other lifting body to go even higher. This would relieve a LOT of the problems you forsee since it is much easier to attain orbital velocity with little or no atmospheric drag.
Also dont forget that 3B goes a LOT further in the private sector than it does wasted on juicy government contracts.
Uh, digging a hole 45k deep is not a wonderful idea.
*Is such a thing even possible to begin with?
Well digging a hole 45K deep would be a little moronic when you could use a succession of asteroid impacts to do the job for you. Let gravity do most of the work while creating an incredible heatsink at the same time.
US economy in a freefall? Uh, look again.
We are 'holding steady' by spending 20 years worth of assets in the form of debt. If you think things are looking up, you aren't being realistic. We are headed straight for another Great Depression, but worse.
GCNR, Im confused. We all know how challenging building a RLV capable of reaching orbit is otherwise it woulda already been done by now. But are you saying it can never be done? Do you really think that 20 years from now we won't have reliable trasport to orbit in the form of a RLV? How long do you think its going to take?
LOL, hello GCNRevenger, glad to see you are still the optimist
A real orbital RLV? Ohhh no, you would need an order of magnetude more money, since the vehicle would have an order of magnetude more performance and complexity.
And how many of those people signing up for Virgin Galactic will ever take a second trip? I think that after the initial glut of rich flyers, you will go out of business since those that can and want to pay will have already done so.
Brannon is a much better buisness man than Trump so when he makes estimates I tend to agree. In his own words costs for creating a series of launch vehicles, air/spaceport, staff, computers and everything else you need shouldnt exceed $200 million. So you are correct in the sense that orbital flights are an order of magnitude more expensive, but 3.6 billion is an order greater than 200 million.
Yes, again you are correct to say that there is a limit to how many people will pay $200,000, but lets not forget that with each passing year there are more rich people, and also with each passing year $200,000 isnt as much money due to inflation. This is of coarse if he doesnt drop the price to say $100,000 in a few years and captures an even larger market share. $200, isnt that much money GCN, most people will borrow this much money in their lifetimes for just a house. Your dedicated middle class american will be able to fly. Hardly what I call rich....
Ok people, time to do your good deed for the day!
Rep. D-Jim Oberstar is spearheading an effort to require more FAA regulation in the private space industry. I dont need to tell most of you how important is it that we give this industry time to grow on its own. What we need to do right now is contact jim Oberstar and let him know that we appreciate his efforts to safeguard us, but that killing or forcing this new industry across seas will be much more damaging that a few accidents. Keep it nice and thoughful but make your views heard. We have to put some pressure on this guy before he builds up momentum and makes a cause out of this. Now Ive included several links on the breaking story as well as the info and sites to make an email to him. Please take 5 mins to do this, it will be the best 5 mins you spent. I've already done most of the work for ya.
http://wwwc.house.gov/oberstar/zipauth. … ipauth.htm
That link takes you to the site where you will need to enter your name (or fictional) as well as your zip code. Now you MUST enter the extra 4 digits of the zip code or you cant send him email. he only accepts letters from people in his district.
55710-8312
This is a full zip code for Britt, MN
Use it if you dont know how to find a different one. For those of you with good net skills I suggest you use a different zip code so it doesnt look like all the spacenuts of the nation have moved to Britt MN
http://zip4.usps.com/zip4/welcome_addre … ...p=55710
Here's a link for the +4 digit zip code look up at the postal service. Just find an address and type it in, then it will give you the last 4 digits of a zip code
http://www.oberstar.house.gov/index.asp … ...2CF8AF}
This link will show you what cities are in Oberstar's district. Find a city then google search that city along with MN and someones address will pop up in the search results, then just enter that into the USPS site to get the last 4 digits of the zip code.
Please, if you do nothing else today just take 5 mins to write this man and discourage his coarse of action. He will think twice before taking this position if people in his district are against it. Notice how he doesnt even mention it on his home page, he thinks no one notices.
http://www.space-travel.com/news/touris … m-05h.html
And finally the link to the article where Oberstar makes his crusade loud and clear....
"For years," Oberstar complained, "both I and many of my colleagues on the aviation subcommittee have criticized the FAA for waiting until after a disaster to take safety actions, and have urged more proactive safety oversight."
During the hearings, Oberstar not only berated witnesses, but he also said he would introduce legislation to amend the space law.
"My bill would give the FAA the flexibility to create a regulatory structure governing the design or operation of a launch vehicle," he said, "to protect the health and safety of crews and spaceflight participants as is necessary, without having to wait for a catastrophic failure to occur."
The day after the hearings, the office at the FAA with authority to regulate commercial space travel opened a two-day conference in Washington to review the industry and the law.
I started this thread when the news of Rutan and Brannons agreement to create private sub-orbital hops was first announced. Some recent news includes:
AERA recently annouced that they intend to beat Rutan & Co to the sub-orbital market as early as 2006 and promise greater safety and cheaper flights that Virgin Galactic.
http://www.space-travel.com/news/touris … m-05g.html
Volvo recently teamed up with Virgin Galactic to promote their new V-8 is a superbowl spot along with a contest to win a seat on the maiden voyage of VG's new ship.
Virgin Galactics website has received over 18,500 requests for making reservations on VG's new ship. Do the math people...($200,000 X 18,500 =3.6 billion dollars) If only 10 percent were to follow through with the commitment thats still 360 million dollars for an endeavor that will cost roughly 200 million for everything....ie profit enough to roll into a real orbital RLV.
Speaking of colonizing Mars, I recently heard a wonderful idea off SpaceDaily.com. Create a hole 45k deep at Mars' lowest region, the atmosphere would then drain into this pit creating about 1 full bar of atmospheric pressure making a much more effecient greenhouse in no time. Any thoughts?
Well its been awhile since I started this forum and while the Chinesse space program has only crawled ahead their economy is stronger than ever. We just racked up yet another trade defecit with China and the US economy is in a freefall. Maybe I wasnt so crazy after all?
Actually, though its not free, it's about as close to free as you can get when building infastructure in space. For a few billion we could send a few rovers and a small factory to make at least low-grade solar panels on the Moon. Since it would be entirely automated, it's possible that the 'powerstation' would continue growing and eventually yeild enough energy to pay for itself. As the MER missions have shown, telerobotics is rather cheap once the initial missions are paid for.
Good point Bill. I like the tag too
I don't believe the question is weither Bush set the right goal for NASA, but weither goal setting is enough. Kennedy did more than make an election year speech, he backed up his words with record increases in NASA spending to ge the job done. As far as I know, Bush has said nothing more since his January speech.
I'm also severly disappointed that Boe/Lock seem destined to build the CEV. I guess white elephants breed.
As for the Bush Administration's overall science policy, I think the Emporer of Star Wars fame said it best, 'your failure is now complete.....'
At first I thought that this goal of Bigelow's was totally unreachable, now I'm not so sure. As some have mentioned here, there are many companies that have a head start. Also, if there are efforts willing to spend 2x the actual prize money as Allen and Co. did, then you have finances approaching $200 million which should be entirely doable. The true beauty of Bigelow's proposal is that the reward is mainly on the back end of the prize. As he correctly states, the winner will not neccessarily be awarded all the servicing contracts to his orbital hotels. A post contest goal is something that Rutan's team didn't really have (races aren't all that profitable).
Ad Astra, I just read that tidbit about Bigelow's $50 million prize. Don't you think that $50 million is a bit cheap for all that he expects a team to do? I mean he wants to not only reach space, but manuver around in orbit as well. It is not just 5 times harder but hundreds of times harder to reach orbit. I don't see many people chasing the orbital prize but I could and hope I am wrong.
Ah yes, but Spacenut, the technology hasn't fundamentally changed and that is why it hasn't become any cheaper. Today we are looking at lighter than air space access and space elevators. Who know what tomorrow will bring?
If there is life on Mars or Europa is it primitive and dying off. Neither of these worlds will ever give rise to intelligence. As the only intelligent species in the solar system we have the right and I dare say the duty to use these worlds as we see fit.
There is nothing 'magically' dangerous about a human presence on either world. If there are any microbes on these worlds they are only threatened by us if we devote an incredible amout of resources to eradicating them. Assuming Mars does have life, it has survived conditions more hostile than any found on Earth. Us being there, or even standing on top of them with a flag of Earth and screaming 'Death to life!' won't make a difference to them.
Life is most likely common throughout the universe. At its simplest form, which is all Mars or Europa offer, it is little more than moving dirt.
UPDATE: I just read MSNBC's version of the story and they are saying it will be sub-orbital flights not orbital. It appears SpaceDaily had a typo, sorry for the confusion. Still quite facinating though.
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/xprize-04z.html
In summary, Branson a well known billionaire behind Virgin Records, Virgin Airlines, and many other successful endeavors has signed a $25 million dollar contract with Mojave Aerospace the company that owns the tech to SpaceShipOne.
His plan is to build spaceports over the next 3 years and have passengers flying orbital flights for about $200,000 within 5 years.
Well folks, it seems even more hope is resting on the shoulders of SS1 and I sincerly hope it is up to the task. This is the break we have all been waiting for. A billionaire with sound buisness sense is going to drive down the costs of orbital flight for the common people and the industry as well.
I have to wonder if Rutan hasn't already been designing an orbital craft and the tech needed for them to boldly make such statements. Perhaps development is already underway? I mean, he says that he and Rutan will be flying on the inaugural flight in three years and that is very ambitious unless they already have something up their sleeve.
Talk amoungst yourselves.
Ok so there are arguments, I expected that and I have more than frozen fish to rebut them
Europa may have life yes. I was only kidding about the fish guys. There likely isn't enough energy available in the ocean of Europa to support such large animals without sunlight.
I don't see how radiation is a factor, but perhaps I am misunderstanding. There would be no people involved in this project, only automation. So we don't need to worry about radiation frying any 'iceloaders'. The amount of radiation is also very manageable for machines since Galileo had no problem operating for years much closer to Jupiter.
Europa is covered with a very thick crust of ice. We could use this technique for a century and not even come close to breaching the barrier between ice and water.
I must admit, I don't understand the 'hands off' sentiment when dealing with bodies like Mars or Europa that might possibly harbor life. The latest data from Mars Express suggests that life is limited to maybe three regions on Mars. In other words, it is dying off if it is there. There is no chance for life on the surface of Europa and it is likely that its oceans are freezing out. To do nothing seems to mean certain death for these possible natives of these two respective worlds.
Also, thinning the ice by this technique would only allow more energy into Europa's ocean via solar energy. Granted, unless we are only talking about a meter of ice, it isn't much energy, but Im sure every bit counts.
With a few billion dollars of automation I can see rapidly terraforming Mars at least for plant life in decades not centuries and here's why:
1)Europa has tons of ice (think miles of it)
2)Europa has no atmosphere to interfere with ice delivery.
3)At 20 pounds of ice per 5 minutes you send nearly 3 tons of ice to Mars everyday.
4)Ice 'burning up' in the martian atmosphere will remove a lot of that dust in the air which should increase the greenhouse effect dramatically.
5)Then you seed the ocean of Europa with fish and you can feed the whole solar system by launching mature fish in blocks of ice.
6)No one wants fish traveling at .1c? No problem, they still make good organic compost on Mars.
Going to Mars (or anywhere in space for that matter) is only going to get cheaper as new technology replaces the old. What will the world be like when governments answer to super-corporations even more so than they do today? When we have trillionaires, won't just one of them say 'I'd like to live on Mars.'? Settling Mars isn't a matter of 'if' but 'when'. It will happen as sure as the sun rises and sets.
So why must we be so anxious you ask? Why do it in the next ten to twenty years when it will be so hard? Why not wait till it is easy to do and safe?
To answer this let's look at Antartica. There are people living there right now as I write this. But are they terraforming their environment to be more comfortable? No. They aren't allowed to alter Antartica because it is one of the few last pristine environments on Earth.
For the last 10,000 years humans have spread out and settled new lands because lets face it, their old lands are ruined. Eygpt was once a lush and fertile place and now it is desert. Europe is also under the strain of expiring resources. Now America is cutting down its last ancient trees, polluting its water supplies, and running out of room for its garbage.
I fear that we will wait too long to settle Mars. I fear that once we finally do get there we won't go there as frontier folk, but as a few scientist studing the 'last pristine environment'.
Great news for all you Bush backers! Nasa has been approved for 200 million more than Bush requested!!
Now there is no good reason to vote for Bush! Yay!
When you rely on force you only cower the sheep, not the wolves. I know I've said it before, but you can't give people true democracy. This is true in part because you will always have people that reject anything forced on them.
We can take away their guns, lock up violent individuals, but in the end they will simply fight the system from within. I hate to say it but Iraq will never be peaceful now. I don't think a civil war can be avoided, we have simply affected too many people over there by killing so many civilians.
In regards to Spain, the elections were already decided. The majority of nearly every country in the world is against our occupation of Iraq, the bombings in Spain simply made it a landside instead of a relatively close election.
Time to occupy!
Ok patriots! Time to saddle up your wagons and bake some apple pie! Thanks to Mars Express, we now have further evidence that Mars is in fact alive today!
We need an embassy to deal with these possible insurgents who are carelessly belching methane into the atmosphere of Mars without out a care for their neighbors!
It is well known that methane is a key ingredient in the production of Weapons of Mass Destruction! Why are we still here? Those bacteria are planning unamerican activities as we speak!
I call upon all of you to write your senators and demand that we send an occupational force to dela with this insurgency, before it is too late!
Good posts BWhite and Robert. When you have a choice between asteroids, the Moon and Mars it should be clear that only Mars has everything we need to sustain and support the growth of a human presence.
Science is wonderful, but even here, Mars is a much better target even without the possibility of life being added to the mix.
By the way, Mars Express has narrowed down the methane concentrations to three regions highest in water vapor. Seems pretty obvious where our next rovers should go now.