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#26 Re: Single Stage To Orbit » SSTO Engine Technology » 2025-05-18 15:47:01

kbd512 wrote:

Dr Clark,

I decided to evaluate what an extendible / vacuum nozzle might net in terms of improved payload performance:

The Russian RD-0124 engine, a non-developmental LOX/RP1 engine in active service, has a vacuum Isp of 359s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RD-0124

323.1s is 90% of that 359s Vacuum Isp

Mass Flow Rate (mdot) = Thrust / (Isp * g0)
3,452,113.5kg-f = 33,853,669N
mdot = 33,853,669N / (323.1 * 9.80665)
mdot = 33,853,669N / 3,168.528615
mdot = 10,684.35kg/s

6,508,946,390N-s / 33,853,669N = 192.267s
192.267s * 10,684.35kg/s = 2,054,248kg

Propellant Mass savings is 131,041kg, which nets an additional 7,407kg of payload to orbit.  That amount of payload performance improvement would more than cover the mass allocation for the extendible nozzles.  We need all the payload performance we can get for SSTOs, so I'll take it.

Yes, that would offer significant improvement. The problem is with a variable nozzle it’s not certain the “90% rule” would still provide an accurate estimate. You would need to do an accurate trajectory sim to be sure.

  Bob Clark

#27 Re: Single Stage To Orbit » SSTO Engine Technology » 2025-05-16 15:54:18

kbd512 wrote:


LOX/RP1 to Deliver 6,508,946,390N-s
Real World Engine Proxy: RD-180 engine's Isp (90% of Vacuum Isp) / thrust / mass flow performance figures?:
LOX: 1,597,846kg (1,192.422m^3)
RP1: 587,443kg (683.074m^3)
Total: 2,185,289kg (1,875.496m^3)

2,301,409kg LOX/RP1 + 116,120kg (vehicle and useful payload) = 2,301,409kg GLOW
116,120kg = 5.05% of GLOW

What’s the dry mass of this stage?

  Robert Clark

#28 Re: Single Stage To Orbit » SSTO Engine Technology » 2025-05-16 14:35:51

tahanson43206 wrote:

For RGClark re Post #8

Thanks for the good news of your new LinkedIn group, and for your contribution to this topic.

GW Johnson wrote a short email reminder to think about cooling for your variable geometry nozzle.

With that as a hint, I asked Google's Gemini about variable geometry nozzle design and related research, and followed up with a question about cooling. It appears that different cooling methods are needed at different phases of flight, so your solution will need to include more than one cooling method.

About the cooling issue, this site is a great resource for discussions of spaceflight by experts in the industry back in the day: https://yarchive.net/space/

This page discusses that Pratt & Whitney actually tested a “telescoping nozzle” while the engine was firing and found that it worked:
 
https://yarchive.net/space/rocket/teles … ozzle.html

Also an engine with telescoping nozzle to extend while the engine was firing had been planned for a spaceplane back in the 60’s, but the projected was not completed:

A bat outta Hell: the ISINGLASS Mach 22 follow-on to OXCART
by Dwayne Day
Monday, April 12, 2010
1602b.jpg
https://www.thespacereview.com/article/1602/1

  Robert Clark

#29 Re: Single Stage To Orbit » SSTO Engine Technology » 2025-05-16 10:41:16

tahanson43206 wrote:


For RGClark ... I get the impression you only read a tiny bit of the forum, and posts intended for you never reach you.

There is nothing wrong with that. That is how a lot of our members use the forum.  However, what it means is that feedback someone might offer is never seen, so if correction is offered you continue on without it.

(th)

I suppose I could do a search on “RGClark” for people responding to my posts.

Bob Clark

#30 Re: Meta New Mars » RGClark Postings » 2025-05-16 10:20:02

tahanson43206 wrote:

For RGClark re adjustable nozzle concept...

Since your latest proposal is for an expendable SSTO, you wouldn't be concerned with re-use of the nozzle.

Perhaps a design that slides out segments along the nozzle as they are needed would help?

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/shop … DFl5s73O1_

Update at 1936 New Hampshire time:
For RGClark: https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.ph … 48#p231548
GW Johnson sent this image about how to cool two phase rocket engines.

(th)

I like that idea. There are several methods of doing variable nozzles. For instance they have been used on jet engine afterburners for decades:

9jZk2N.gif

  Bob Clark

#31 Re: Single Stage To Orbit » SSTO Engine Technology » 2025-05-16 10:14:55

Calliban wrote:

By my estimates, the mass ratio of a LOX/RP-1 SSTO would be about 15.  Which means that the entire vehicle and payload would need to be no more than 6.7% of takeoff mass.  That is a very thin structural margin, especially if it includes thermal reentry shielding.  Some kind of launch assist would appear to me to be a necessity for this concept to have a chance of working.  If we can shave 30% off of the fuel required to reach orbit, then a reusable LOX/RP-1 SSTO can get to orbit with a more achievable mass ratio of about 11.  That is still tough to do.  But it is possible.

Another option would be a two staged vehicle, with both stages being reusable.  This is exactly what SpaceX are doing.

As discussed in post #5 above, Falcon 9 first stage has already reached a mass ratio of about 20 to 1. But this uses the mid-level performance Merlin 1D at 312s vacuum Isp. Suppose we replaced them with the high efficiency Russian engines such as the RD-180, that get 338s vacuum Isp. This does give about a 15 to 1 mass ratio you mentioned. How much payload, then, could be carried given that the bare rocket, no payload, got 20 to 1 mass ratio?

  Bob Clark

#32 Re: Single Stage To Orbit » SSTO Engine Technology » 2025-05-16 09:48:31

GW, in post #14 I showed a graphic that showed how much better an adaptive nozzle could do in ISP over the fixed nozzle applied to the Vulcain engine. I imagine there would also be a great improvement with a variable nozzle over 312s vacuum Isp of the fixed nozzle Merlin 1D. For instance a Russian upper stage RP1 engine was able to get 358s vacuum Isp.

So my question is could your engine analysis program described here, https://exrocketman.blogspot.com/2024/0 … mator.html, do the calculations of the Isp with altitude of the Merlin 1D when given a variable nozzle that matched the exit area to the ambient pressure by altitude?

  Bob Clark

#33 Re: Single Stage To Orbit » SSTO Engine Technology » 2025-05-16 07:54:55

kbd512 wrote:

Dr Clark,

Adding or subtracting 10 seconds of Isp is almost meaningless for a LOX/LH2 engine.  A straight Delta-V calculation will show that the difference between 452.3s of Isp and 464.9s of Isp is 85.65m/s of additional acceleration possible for the same propellant load and dry vehicle mass.  You will not see any sort of night-and-day payload performance improvement by using that extendible nozzle with the RS-25, but your vehicle will have significant additional dry mass.  Unless some other part of your vehicle becomes lighter to compensate for lugging heavier engines all the way to space, then you may actually lose a little payload performance.  If we were starting in orbit with 464.9s vs 452.3s of Isp, with full propellant tanks, then yes, you would see a meaningful payload performance increase, but again, it's not going to be a night-and-day type of improvement, especially if the nozzle extension mass is significant.

...

My thesis is any currently existing (liquid-fueled) stage can be SSTO with use of extensible nozzle, though for upper stages, which typically don’t have enough thrust for liftoff, you may need to cut prop load or add engines.

There were examples of SSTO’s designed around the SSME’s because they were already high performance engines able to launch from ground yet get high Isp in vacuum. But that high performance comes with a high price. When they were first offered they cost ca. $40 million each. When Aerojet brought them back for the SLS core stage they (absurdly) jacked up the price to $146 million each. In contrast mid-level performance engines like the Merlin 1D on the Falcon 9, Vulcain on the Ariane 5/6, or RS-68 on the Delta IV cost less than $10 million each. More importantly rather than having to design and build an entire new rocket for the SSTO use, it can literally be done by attaching an extensible nozzle to the already existing stage.

For an example of how great the improvement in performance can be for a mid level engine, see this graphic of the Vulcain if it were given altitude compensating nozzles:

15795F8B-4C87-4664-8B18-0D62AE2E19B7.jpeg

Getting a vacuum Isp of ca. 480s compared to 432s of the standard Vulcain would be a big difference. Note also because the RS-68 has similar chamber pressure as the Vulcain it would also get similar high vacuum Isp with an extensible nozzle. This would represent an even greater increase in performance over the standard RS-68’s 412s vacuum Isp.

This radical increase in vacuum Isp would also hold for the Merlin 1D. It’s vacuum Isp is 312s. But the Merlin Vacuum can get a vacuum Isp of 348s, and there have been upper stage RP1 engines able to get 358s vacuum Isp. That would be a major increase in performance over what the current Falcon 9 could do as an SSTO. To illustrate, the current Falcon 9 has an approximate 20 to 1 mass ratio, then the ideal delta-v would be:
312*9.81Ln(20) = 9,170 m/s, that would be about zero payload to orbit. But a 358s Isp might give 358*9.81Ln(20) = 10,520 m/s. This is so much much higher than the common 9,200 to 9,400 m/s delta-v needed for orbit it would represent a high amount of payload.

BUT, notice I said might. Again the problem is a simple rocket equation estimate using a fixed Isp as used for fixed nozzle, probably won’t work for the variable nozzle case. You really need to do an accurate trajectory sim to see what the payload would be using a varying nozzle.

Edit: edited the current Aerojet price for the SSME’s to $146 million each; 3 times higher than the original $40 million each.

   Bob Clark

#34 Re: Single Stage To Orbit » SSTO Engine Technology » 2025-05-16 02:37:55

kbd512 wrote:

Dr Clark,

Tim Chen (Chief Engineer for Boeing Satellite Systems) seems to think SSTO with LOX/RP1 is impossible and SSTO with LOX/LH2 is possible but very difficult.  I want to understand why that is, because there seems to be an absolute fixation on the marginal Isp differences between RP1 and LH2.  The combination of Total Impulse (Total Force) generated to accelerate a vehicle with a constrained mass is what dictates whether or not that vehicle attains orbital velocity, or doesn't.  You get marginally better Isp with LOX/LH2 at the expense of much larger propellant tank structures that add to SMF and detract from PMF.  Materials don't get any stronger as vehicle volume increases.  On top of that problem, LH2-fueled engines produce less than half as much thrust per unit engine mass, as compared to LCH4/RP1-fueled engines.  Modern hydrocarbon fueled rocket engines (Merlin-1D, Raptor-3; 185:1 to 190:1 TWR), about 2.5X as much thrust per unit engine mass as LH2-fueled engines (RS-25D, J-2X, RS-68A; 47:1 to 75:1 TWR).

Here’s that discussion by Tim Chen on that LinkedIn group:

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/ur … hGKm6TyGa4

He refers to this graphic:

1746032260810?e=1750291200&v=beta&t=43GDUGOHK-Qtt3iZUs7p8f7c0kez51B_12Mn0WSoCMg

But that graphic takes a far too small value for RP1(kerosene) engines ISP of only 200s. This is worse than the Merlin 1D at 312s vacuum ISP. But the high efficiency Russian engines such as the RD-180 do better than this at 338s.

At a propellant fraction of .95 possible for RP-1, this is a mass ratio of 20 to 1. Using a 338s ISP gives a delta-v of:

338*9.8Ln(20) = 9,923.0636, well above the 9,200 to 9,400 needed for orbit.


Also, a variable nozzle could get even better performance.

   Bob Clark

#35 Re: Single Stage To Orbit » SSTO Engine Technology » 2025-05-15 17:39:39

RGClark wrote:

But there is a problem here as far as estimating payload capability. Commonly with fixed nozzle stages you use a fixed value for the ISP to estimate the delta-v possible. This is convenient since it is only a single line calculation using the rocket equation. But that probably is not accurate for a variable nozzle since you are changing the characteristics of the nozzle through out the flight. You could you use, say, the vacuum isp for this case but that would probably over estimate it.

What really needs to be done is accurate trajectory simulations of the type NASA uses. Then you could see how the variable nozzle deviates from what a fixed nozzle would do. I’ve only seen one paper actually do that. I’ll see if I can find it.

  Bob Clark

That article was:

Rocket-powered single-stage-to-orbit vehicles for safe economical access to low Earth orbit.
August 1992 Acta Astronautica 26(8-10):633-642
DOI: 10.1016/0094-5765(92)90153-A
Dana G. Andrews, Dana G. Andrews, E.E. Davis, E.L. Bangsund
C0010-BF9-8-DBC-453-E-8-A29-4-D18-B151-ECDD.jpg
https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio … arth_orbit

  Bob Clark

#36 Re: Single Stage To Orbit » SSTO Engine Technology » 2025-05-09 23:17:37

I started a group on LinkedIn on developing SSTO’s:

SSTO - Single Stage to Orbit.
https://www.linkedin.com/groups/13205030

My first post in that group was on developing an expendable SSTO. The reason is the opinion against a SSTO being feasible is so strong it’s important to break that mindset by just getting an expendable one with significant payload. 

  The point of the matter is getting an expendable SSTO is easy with minor modification to existing engines: add an extensible nozzle to get high vacuum ISP at vacuum, but which can be retracted at sea level. Such extensible nozzles have been in use since the 90’s with the RL10 upper stage engine. The problem is they haven’t been used on first stage engines.

The surprising conclusion you get is any existing (liquid fueled) stage can be made SSTO by addition of an extensible nozzle, though for an upper stage you would have to cut fuel load or add additional engines since commonly they don’t have enough thrust for liftoff from ground since they don’t need it.

But there is a problem here as far as estimating payload capability. Commonly with fixed nozzle stages you use a fixed value for the ISP to estimate the delta-v possible. This is convenient since it is only a single line calculation using the rocket equation. But that probably is not accurate for a variable nozzle since you are changing the characteristics of the nozzle through out the flight. You could you use, say, the vacuum isp for this case but that would probably over estimate it.

What really needs to be done is accurate trajectory simulations of the type NASA uses. Then you could see how the variable nozzle deviates from what a fixed nozzle would do. I’ve only seen one paper actually do that. I’ll see if I can find it.

  Bob Clark

#37 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2025-05-05 06:09:12

GW Johnson wrote:

Well,  they clearly have some sort of problem going on that they don't yet understand. 

The fact that something bad happened in a static test tied down to a thrust stand,  suggests a possible resonance in a feed plumbing line,  not a vehicle structural mode,  which would be strongly damped by the fixity of the thrust stand.  Such would explain a lot of the fires and engine outs we have been seeing all along.  But it takes a thrust or chamber pressure oscillation to do that,  one occurring at one of the organ pipe oscillation modes in that feed line. 

I really seriously doubt they have any sort of data acquisition that is not digital.  You cannot see an organized oscillation hidden in the noise "hash" with digitally-acquired data:  the inherent pixellation completely obscures it.  You need a high-speed FM tape recording using a recorder of about 1 MHz capability.  You play this back at various speeds and magnifications,  either as a paper printout or on a scope display,  until you find what you are looking for:  a definite periodicity with a nontrivial amplitude.  It will be a signal hidden among a nonperiodic "hash" of all sorts of amplitudes and frequencies,  so it may not initially "leap off the display" at you.  You do this with both thrust and pressure data recordings.

The reason I suspect they have a thrust/pressure oscillation going on is because of the 10-Hz shaking of my doors,  windows,  and hanging light fixtures when they test Raptors,  but NOT Merlins,  at the McGregor test facility.  You cannot hear this signal,  but you can feel and observe its effects.  10 Hz is below the lowest frequency humans can hear (but an elephant could).

This is the sort of problem where the basic approach of "build it,  break it,  build another" will let you down.  This is the sort of thing where you have to stop and investigate carefully just to figure out what went wrong.  SpaceX is not used to doing that.  SpaceX has no one on their payroll old enough to know about how to investigate anything like that.  And they have a bad "not invented here" culture that prevents them from learning from the mistakes of others,  especially mistakes made long ago.


GW

SpaceX has a serious “not invented here problem”. Perhaps you can write this up and post it on your blog. You could then link to the posting on the various groups on LinkedIn read by those in the industry. Hopefully someone at SpaceX would pick up on it.

Edit: I looked up the average age of the engineers at SpaceX. This was the Grok response:

Query: What is the average age of the engineers at SpaceX?
Response: The average age of engineers at SpaceX is approximately 28 to 30 years old, based on various reports. A 2019 post on X cited the median employee age at SpaceX as 29, while other sources, including Reddit discussions and news articles, suggest the average age of engineers is around 30, with many being recent graduates or in their 20s to early 30s.[](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/comment … ing_there/)[](https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to- … cex-2013-2)

Norbert Elekes @NorbertElekes
Median employee age at tech companies

SpaceX: 29
Google: 30
Amazon: 30
Apple: 31
Microsoft: 33
IBM: 36
HP: 38
Xerox: 41
Kodak: 50
https://x.com/norbertelekes/status/1102 … 55617?s=61

SpaceX is youngest. Note the others near the top are primarily software companies. For them, the engineering hardware is not as major an issue. But for hardware, engineering is as much an art as it is a science. You need that knowledge and instincts of the old time engineers that would not be written down in books. Not being an engineer, Elon would not be aware of that


  Bob Clark

#38 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2025-05-02 23:16:12

GW Johnson wrote:

By the way,  has anybody heard anything about when the next orbital test flight might be?  I have seen nothing so far.

GW

Bad news on the latest Starship static fire test:

@Blobifi
Starship gazer has released a video of the static fire on Facebook showing what looks to be an Rvac destabilizing before the the other engiens shut down.
https://x.com/blobifie/status/191824849 … QWCAYS9AQw

Some reports are a vacuum Raptor actually experienced a RUD.

  Bob Clark

#39 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » A basic physics principal can solve both fusion and superluminal speed » 2025-05-01 06:46:01

tahanson43206 wrote:

This topic combines two ideas that are not normally associated.

Quantum pairing is thought to be superluminal so it would be interesting to see if anyone can find evidence supporting that conjecture.

Fusion is the focus of multiple topics already, but in ** this ** topic the idea of mechanical advantage is available if anyone would care to explore it.

Fusion is present in abundance in the Universe.  Every instance known to date is gravity mediated fusion.

(th)

I hadn’t hear of quantum pairing. What is it?

   Bob Clark

#40 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » A basic physics principal can solve both fusion and superluminal speed » 2025-04-30 20:17:29

Yes, it’s Archimedes. By the way when the question is asked who were the greatest intellects humanity has ever produced the answer commonly given is Archimedes, Newton, and Gauss.

The basic principle discovered by Archimedes, startling in its scope, is the principle of “mechanical advantage”. The idea is moving a small mass a large distance or high speed is equivalent to moving a large mass a small distance or low speed. Archimedes first enunciated this principle in regards to the lever. He famously said, “Give me a place to stand and I shall move the Earth!”

Nowadays, we consider it “trivial” and “obvious” because the energy is the same in both cases. You see it in many forms, levers, pulleys, gears, hydraulics, etc. But note the principle goes both ways: if you want to achieve high speed you can do it by moving a large mass low speed.

Then in regards fusion and superluminal speeds you translate the known techniques of producing large mass at low speed into moving small mass at (extremely) high speed.

I just thought it stunning such a simple principle discovered millennia ago could solve the deepest questions of 21st century physics.

  Robert Clark

#41 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » A basic physics principal can solve both fusion and superluminal speed » 2025-04-30 15:42:42

It’s not in the science journals. It’s a surprising realization that occurred to me.
Who was the greatest scientist of antiquity? What was a key principle he first enunciated?

  Bob Clark

#42 Science, Technology, and Astronomy » A basic physics principal can solve both fusion and superluminal speed » 2025-04-29 07:41:06

RGClark
Replies: 8

A surprising and unexpected conclusion: two major tech advances of the 21st century being sought now, controlled nuclear fusion and superluminal speeds, can both be accomplished by using a basic, earliest discovered principle of science.
Question: what is that basic principle of science?

  Robert Clark

#43 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2025-04-28 19:32:58

GW Johnson wrote:

That link in the quote in post 2060 just above does not take me to anything I ever sketched.  It takes me to the imgur webpage,  not to any particular image. 

Meanwhile,  just to let everybody know,  SpaceX has been testing a lot of Raptor engines lately,  quite a few up on the tower stand where they are quite loud.  There's about a 10-Hertz inaudible pressure wave from these tests that really rattles the windows and doors and chandelier-type light fixtures.  I feel it with Raptors,  but not Merlins.  I suspect the soot cloud in the flame with kerosene has an oscillation damping effect that is missing with the methane.

That too-low-to-hear but significant amplitude signal suggests a nontrivial thrust oscillation with a fairly-well-defined 10 Hertz frequency in the Raptor that the Merlins just do not have.  If there are any vehicle or plumbing modes near that 10-Hertz frequency,  resonance could easily cause POGO problems. 

Those tests have been running pretty close to 6-7 minutes each,  essentially a full duration ascent burn for either stage.  I cannot tell a vacuum Raptor from a sea level Raptor,  they all sound about the same,  from 6 miles away.  I suspect the vacuum tests are running with something approximating a normal shock,  essentially just barely aft of the exit plane.  They would have to be at near full pressure,  and would be separated between ignition at some reduced pressure,  and throttle-up to test conditions.   I usually don't hear the "explosions" that were full-power starts.  Von Braun found reduced-throttle ignition to be far more survivable,  about 80 years ago.

GW

Thanks for that. The image I referred to was from post #2057. For some reason it wasn’t copied correctly when I quoted it.

The prevailing speculation is the flight 7 and 8 explosions were due to interactions with the rocket structure. In that case these tests just on test stand of a single engine won’t solve the issue. If POGO, then static tests using the full rocket stage itself won’t resolve it either. Is it possible for a stage on a test stand to emulate the vibrations that occur during POGO?

  Bob Clark

#44 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2025-04-16 09:44:37

tahanson43206 wrote:

For RGClark...

Here is an image GW asked me to post for you:

https://i.imgur.com/W4DXxet.png

(th)

Thanks for that, GW. I wanted to ask in regards to the “hot metal” TPS, the heat would rapidly propagate to the upper side of the vehicle. This means the radiative surface area would double, thus doubling the heat emission.

Shouldn’t this improve the survivability?

  Bob Clark

#45 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2025-04-15 09:40:41

I discussed in the blog post the inflatable conical shield being investigated to allow the Cygnus cargo capsule to be reusable had the same ballistic coefficient as the Starship of ca. 60 kg/sq.m IF you take the dry mass of the Starship at the expendable 40 tons.

The problem is this conical shield was sized for a returning craft of mass of ca. 5 tons and it’s not certain how the conical shield would scale to higher mass, such as the Starship.

But there might be an example that would give us a reusable thermal shield for a vehicle the size of Starship. I’m thinking of the X-33/Venturestar.

08287-C50-420-B-4-FDC-A69-B-37-A594-E87808.jpg

The length in meters was 38.7m and width 39m. For the dry mass, the total gross weight was 2,186,000 lbs, propellant weight 1,929,000 lbs, and payload weight 45,000 lbs; giving a dry weight of 212,000 lbs, or 96,400 kg.

Using a hypersonic drag coefficient of 2, and considering the triangular planform requires multiplying by 1/2 the length*width to get the area, the ballistic coefficient calculates out to be 96,400/(2*1/2*38.7*39) = 64 kg/sq.m.

Remarkably close to the ballistic coefficient of the Starship at the 60,000 kg mass of the expendable’s dry mass + fairing mass.

But the added weight of the metallic shingle TPS of the X-33/Venturestar can’t be too high to allow the ballistic coefficient to remain close to this value.

The areal density of the metallic shingle TPS was about 10 kg/sq.m:

REUSABLE METALLIC THERMAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT
Max L. Blosser*, Carl J. Martin*, Kamran Daryabeigi*, Carl C. Poteet **
*NASA Langley Research Center, Hampton, VA, USA
** JIAFS, The George Washington University, Hampton, VA, USA
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/200 … 095922.pdf

The metallic tiles had better resistance to impact and rain than the ceramics at about the same weight.

04-A5-BF90-A019-4278-A5-CC-C3-F33-E7-AFF11.png
Fig.3 Layered metallic sheeting separated by insulation.

09-E4-AEC5-8-B96-424-E-A117-AC5-A11-E2-FC7-E.png
Fig.21 Metallic TPS at same weight of ceramic tiles, ~10kg/sq.m.

At a 10 kg/sq.m. areal density, the added weight covering just the lower half of the Starship would be (1/2)*Pi*9*50*(10 kg/sq.m.) = 7,060 kg, proportionally small enough that the ballistic coefficient would still be ca. 60 kg/sq.m.

This would be advantageous in that you don’t need added wings and you don’t need an additional conical shield.

BUT for this to work SpaceX would have to go back to the smaller, expendable mass of the Starship. SpaceX had tested the X-33 metallic shingles and concluded they were inadequate. But that was with temperatures developed with the higher 150+ ton Starship. With a lighter dry mass, much reduced temperatures result.

  Bob Clark

#46 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2025-04-15 08:03:21

kbd512 wrote:

I'd like to point out how ridiculously low 18.75kg/m^2 (3.84lbs/ft^2) truly is.  That is the wing loading equivalent of the average ultra-light aircraft, none of which are made from materials that will withstand 800C.  For a 150,000kg dry mass vehicle, the heat shield surface area is 8,000m^2.  A regulation American football field is 57,600ft^2, or 5,351m^2, which means the heat shield would need to be 1.5X the size of a football field.  For all practical purposes, we don't build any flying vehicles of that size.

I discussed before I think SpaceX is not taking the best approach to developing the Superheavy/Starship. They were spectacularly successful with the Falcon 9 by first getting the expendable version, then proceeding to reusability. If they had taken that approach with the SH/SS they would already be flying the expendable version and perhaps even also the partially reusable one, i.e., reusing the booster only, a la the Falcon 9.

Note then for the expendable version the dry mass of the Starship might have been as low as 40 tons:

Elon Musk @ElonMusk
Probably no fairing either & just 3 Raptor Vacuum engines. Mass ratio of ~30 (1200 tons full, 40 tons empty) with Isp of 380. Then drop a few dozen modified Starlink satellites from empty engine bays with ~1600 Isp, MR 2. Spread out, see what’s there. Not impossible.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1111798912141017089?s=61

Then with the ca. 20 ton fairing, the needed ‘wing’ area need to be added might be ca. 1,800 sq.m. But this wouldn’t be as heavy as regular wings with their thickness to generate aerodynamic lift. It would only have the character of a thin plate since it is meant only to be a drag decelerator.

  Bob Clark

#47 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2025-04-14 11:29:56

Thanks for that, GW. Your updated version of Fig 6. is closer to the Dr. Akin result of approx. stagnation temperature 800°C for a ballistic coefficient of ca. 20 kg/sq.m:

2D359DB7-6C9C-4E68-A4A5-977158B44695.png

Your updated Fig 6:

beta%20study%206%20rev.png

This is in the range of the max. service temperature for some steel alloys:

beta%208.png

  Bob Clark

#48 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2025-04-11 18:22:24

kbd512 wrote:

Dr Clark,

Antonov AN-225's wing area was 905m^2 and wing tank fuel capacity was 375m^3.

Concorde's wing area was 358m^2 and internal fuel capacity was 119.5m^3.

For Starship to have 1,800m^2 of wing area, the wing's fuel capacity would be at least 600m^3, which is a third of Starship's present propellant capacity.  Since 304L stainless is such a weak structural metal relative to its mass, the wing would need to carry propellant and be shaped to resist both internal pressurization loads and aero loads lower in the atmosphere.  This proposal would increase the weight of Starship to impractical levels, which is why it won't be done.  A lifting body Starship, which may or may not remain within tolerable mass limits, would require a complete redesign to provide 1,800m^2 of lifting surface area.

Keep in mind how huge Starship is. Jet fuel, kerosene, is a bit less than water’s density of a ton per cubic meter. Then the Antonov’s wing fuel load would be about 300 tons and the Concorde’s about 100 tons. The Starship carries 1,200 tons of propellant.

But it’s a bit like comparing apples to oranges. In this scenario the “wing” would not be carrying fuel. It would only be acting as a drag decelerator, a la the ‘parashield’.

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Still, I’d like to see what could done with true wings using high lift/drag aerodynamics at hypersonic speed. This would undoubtedly make the wings smaller.

fig24-2.jpg

fig25.jpg
Optimum Mach 25 waverider [from Bowcutt, Anderson and Capriotti, 1987

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  Bob Clark

#49 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2025-04-11 18:02:18

GW Johnson wrote:

Bear in mind that lifting bodies have a substantially-lower lift curve slope that delta wings,  in turn less than swept wings,  and that in turn less than straight wings.  There is more to available lift than just wing area!  By around a factor of 2 to 3!  Planform shape is a big influence,  as is wing section shape (lifting body vs airfoil).   Especially considering the differences between subsonic and supersonic/hypersonic designs! 

That being said,  I have been looking closely at Bob's suggestion that low ballistic coefficient might eliminate the need for heat shielding.  I am running a generic study across a very wide range of ballistic coefficients,  to see what the peak stagnation heating rates and peak deceleration gees look like,  as well as end-of-hypersonics altitudes,  for fixed entry speed and entry angle below horizontal,  in Earth's atmosphere.  These are at fixed mass and hypersonic drag coefficient,  with a fixed "nose radius"/diameter ratio.  I vary diameter.  Just generic,  but well within the ballpark. 

I will not take this through any realistic vehicle designs,  but it will provide design constraints in terms of surface stagnation zone temperatures,  and average pressures across the heat shield at peak deceleration.  Both are crucial heat shield parameters.

GW

Thanks. I would be interested in seeing your conclusions.

  Bob Clark

#50 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2025-04-10 12:57:17

SpaceX is having difficulty finding an effective thermal protection system for Starship. I had earlier speculated that if it were giving sufficiently large wings, it could go completely without TPS. The possibility was occasioned by this article:

Wings in space.
by James C. McLane III
Monday, July 11, 2011
Wing loading (the vehicle’s weight divided by its wing surface area) is a prime parameter affecting flight. The antique aluminum Douglas DC-3 airliner had a big wing with a low loading of about 25 psf (pounds per square foot of wing surface). At the other end of the spectrum, the Space Shuttle orbiter has a high wing loading of about 120 psf. This loading, combined with an inefficient delta-shaped wing, makes the orbiter glide like a brick. A little Cessna 152 private plane features a wing loading of about 11 psf and modern gliders operate down around 7 psf. A space plane with huge lifting surfaces and a very low wing loading might not require any external thermal insulation at all. Building a space plane with a wing loading of, say, 10 psf should not be an impossible proposition. Perhaps some day it will be done.
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1880/1

I found a further article that allows this possibility to be further constrained:

SpaceOps 2010 Conference
25-30 April 2010, Huntsville, Alabama AIAA 2010-1928
Applications of Ultra-Low Ballistic Coefficient Entry Vehicles to Existing and Future Space Missions
David L. Akin∗
Space Systems Laboratory, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742
https://spacecraft.ssl.umd.edu/publicat … hieldx.pdf

As discussed there the relevant parameter is actually ‘ballistic coefficient’, (mass)/(drag coefficient*drag area), β = m/CD*A, given in metric units kg/m^2, where the drag area is by cross-section.

The author uses a slightly variant definition given in units of pascals where up in the numerator is given the weight in Newtons. But it’s easy to convert to the more commonly used version by dividing by g, 9.81 m/s^2, i.e., about 10. He estimates when ballistic coeffcient is below 200 Pa, or about 20 kg/m^2 in the more common units, the max temperature during reentry would be ca. 800°C. This should be a temperature stainless-steel is able to withstand.

I estimated an additional wing area of 36m*50m = 1,800m^2 would allow the max temperature to stay below the 800°C point:

Reentry of orbital stages without thermal protection, Page 2.
https://exoscientist.blogspot.com/2025/ … thout.html


  Bob Clark

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