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Not without penalty. Statistically, over a long period of time, some conceptions of rights work a lot better than others.
It depends on how one defines "work" and "better", there are few absolutes.
Well the most straightforward definitions are survival of the particular concept of rights and its social embodiments in an evolutionary sense.
As for there being few absolutes, I'm not so certain. George Miller, for many years a prominent Harvard psychologist, believed that behavior follows "higher order invariants" which are extremely subtle. However, when the invariance is discovered and defined, then what appeared to be very complex, even chaotic, becomes clear. A good example of this is the physical descriptions of phonemes in human languages.
From an evolutionary standpoint, there is an empirical component to ethics. However, just as in the natural sciences there may well be a critical formal component as well.
EDIT:: What this disagreement really comes down to is simply that I do not believe that an abstract philosphical construct exists in any meaningful or quantifiable sense on its own. Arguing that they exist or have any meaning outside that context strikes me as a rather flimsy position requiring a great deal of rationalization.
Can one appeal to the universe for violations of natural rights? No.
Can rights be violated by man with ease? Yes.
How much does the "right to free assembly" weigh?
???Seems like something with a rather weak claim to indepedent existence. But then philosophy is prone to such disagreements.
Yes, and a state has the means to enforce the 'rights' agreed on, making them real in a practical sense.
I believe that state enforcement is the weakest application of rights. The strongest are those that are voluntarily respected because personally agreed on. If you don't believe me ask the early Christians, Lech Walesa, George Washington, Pope Jean-Paul II, etc.
With all due respect, you're reaching now. Physics and some philosophical concept of 'rights' are not comparable. We can ignore the rights of others whenever it suits us.
Not without penalty. Statistically, over a long period of time, some conceptions of rights work a lot better than others.
"Natural rights" is an oxymoron, rights don't exist in nature, only in human societies that accept them on a basic level.
Well, if there are at least two sentient species with languages that allow the discussion of "rights" then we dispell the human limitation immediately. It is more the level of cognition that allows them to be discussed than a restriction to humanity. As modern complexity theorists, and others, have been telling us, "emergence" is a very real property of complex, and some not so complex, systems.
If there is no state to safeguard them, they're just an agreement between people, and therefore only really apply within that context.
Even a state is only an agreement between people, so ALL applications are within that context. And there are probably NO states where ALL the people agree on ALL laws, not to mention the many circumstances where one "right" or "law" conflicts with another in a particular circumstance. Rights do NOT require unanimity in order to exist, as your own example of state-defined rights makes clear.
BTW, I have repeatedly admitted the practical VALUE of embodying rights in governmental organizations; I only point out that it is not NECESSARY in order to define rights.
So it seems that the real point of difference we have is that I don't believe an ideal exists in any meaningful, practical sense. Ideally we wouldn't have war and suffering, but if wishes were fishes as they say...
Sorry to disrupt your dream world, but ideals exist in many highly practical senses. In fact, most of modern physics is expressed in the form of ideals which NEVER exist in reality, e.g. Newton's laws of motion [a body in motion will remain in uniform rectilinear motion unless acted upon by some outside force], the gas laws, etc. In fact, those very useful principles could never have even been formulated except in their ideal forms. In fact, as the English philosopher Alfred North Whitehead once commented, "The negative judgement [stripping away the real to reveal the ideal form that lies beneath] is the peak of mentality." This same process, so useful in the natural sciences, can also be applied to the social/behavioral sciences.
Rights cannot exist in a practical sense outside the state, but the state cannot claim to uphold individual rights while selectively violating them without invalidating the entire concept.
If we make a slight change, I could agree with much of what you say. Rights cannot exist outside a belief system. The state is only one such belief system. The prime example of rights existing outside states is where religious systems grow up in a state foreign to them. Once again, Christianity and the early Roman Empire are prime examples. The religious belief system may be very strong (and therefore a practical consideration) even in a state which opposes it.
Were there truly natural rights we would all simply have them. The fact that they are so lacking in the world is evidence enough of their dependence on fragile social contracts.
This appears to be the primary point on which we differ. Rights may exist as ideal social arrangements even though they are only partially practiced. The ideal doesn't change, even though practices do. In an evolutionary model, we will come to have a clearer and clearer idea of the detailed nature of these ideal arrangements as we discover more and more about our own nature.
As for theory of knowledge (I'm not sure I use the correct English term here, it's a direct translation), I fundamentally proceed from Immanuel Kant. There is your view of things, my view of things and the thing in itself.
:;):
Theory of knowledge is also what we call it, alternatively giving it the name epistemology. How do you reconcile Kant and existentialism?
Which is not to say the state can arbitrarily abridge them, accepting the idea of rights entails full adherence, otherwise it's meaningless.
???? Huh? If rights depend on the state, then why can't the state arbitrarily abridge them? Even the possibility of critisizing the position that "rights are what the state says they are" implies a frame of reference broader than the state. As I indicated earlier in this thread, the idea of rights is made with reference to some system of ideas. The idea of a state is only a part, perhaps even a small part, of such a system.
And no, accepting the idea of a right does not entail full adherence anymore than a religious conception of what is "right" automatically entails full adherence. In fact, the existence of "right actions" despite injustice (violations of our expectations based upon what the system says is right) is one of the primary issues that religions address.
Thanks to Cindy for bringing up Ayn Rand. She is a prime example of an atheist philosopher who has a very sophisticated concept of natural rights.
As far as full adherence goes, the important thing is to understand is that man does not fully understand his own nature. This is especially obvious in the late 20th and early 21st centuries in the area of genetics and genetic expression of behavioral tendencies. The fact that we do not fully understand them does not mean that they are not there. In a similar manner we will eventually discover more and more about what patterns of action are most suitable for man. Allowing man to work intensely in his own self-interest while not allowing him to interfere with his neighbor's right to work in his own self-interest led to a stronger economy and a more peaceful state. Socially, this concept is simply a better mousetrap, as even communist nations have discovered.
No doubt increasingly sophisticated modifications of this idea will occur in the future as we try more experiments and learn more about ourselves. It may even be found to be subordinate to (a special case of) some other concept. Just as quantum mechanics extended Newtonian physics without invalidating it within its own boundaries, so we may well expect to improve upon Enlightenment conceptions of rights, social contracts, etc. But you can't go backwards and invalidate them for all situations because they have proven themselves objectively better for producing healthy, prosperous societies than the previous alternatives, just as Newtonian physics still makes very accurate predictions when operating within its own boundary conditions.
The enlightenment doctrine has got it all wrong. A gazelle is a wonderful creature - considering a universe full of little else than icy dust it's almost priceless. Still it ends up leopard dinner if nature has its way, just like we would.
As for the enlightenment doctrine having it wrong, perhaps and perhaps not. However, it was a major philosophical foundation for one of the most successful societies the world has ever known. Many of the most forward-looking leaders of the 18th century in Europe felt it had a lot of merit, thus the doctrine was both "real" and influential. And much of it was embodied into law. While such embodiment is not necessary for rights to exist, they are, as you and Cobra have indicated, much more effective if such codification has occurred.
I don't really relate to the basic point of your gazelle example, though I do agree that one is a priceless creature. Evolution is much more sophisticated than you portray.
Have you ever seen the films showing how often they get away? If they didn't frequently get away, then there wouldn't be any for us to observe!
I'm not going to go into a discussion of the existence of God at this point, but I do point out that if there is one he/she would likely be the primary giver of "rights", just as enlightenment figures suggested. The fact that God is a hypothesis that you do not happen to believe has nothing to do with whether or not conceptions of rights based on the presumed existence of a God do exist and are influential.
I hold that humans objectively have emotions and the ability to sense compassion. This is the basis upon which we found our sense of righteousness and laws. Those are not dependant on some universal charter of "natural rights", which simply carries no objective reality at all.
Yes, I certainly think that human emotions and the capacity for empathy are heavily involved in the development of concepts of rights, justice, and other abstract goods. In fact, all these things reflect the objective nature of man. Because man is a "natural" creature, it is natural (in man's nature) for him to develop systems of justice, rights, etc. which are constrained in their efficacy according to whether or not such systems are consistent with man's deep and complex nature. Those systems that are most consistent with man's nature (whether divine or not) will be most influential and long-lasting. Thus a concept of "natural rights" can be fully objective and does not require any reference to a third-party God to give it meaning.
Not in any objective, quantifiable sense.
Au contraire, my dear sir. They are quite quantifiable by any of a wide variety of social science measuring techniques. All that is required is the belief, not the codified law. Christianity before Constantine, for example.
Well, this is an exceptionally interesting post. However, let me express some skepticism on a couple of points.
The Martian nuclear issue, from a Terran perspective, is largely irrelevant. Are they going to launch a first-strike from Mars? Missiles en route for months, ooh, hardly a surprise attack there. Even if they do; nukes, Deimos or a big ball of iron; it's all the same.
Let's say that some deeply hidden terrorist group manages to get, or take over shortly after formation, one of the settlements. Since you have already specified that the settlements should be widely spread to reduce the chances of armed conflict, how would anyone know when a nuclear missile is being launched? Any random rocket might simply a return ship carrying "end-of-tour" military or science/industry specialists together with the results of their work or conceivably even some product light and valuable enough to be worth shipping back. And, if the settlements are widely spread one might even get off without anyone knowing about it. Are our Earth scanners so good that any incoming rocket will be picked up for sure? And even if it was picked up and someone said this was a return rocket, how would anybody suspect a danger until far too late to do anything about it? No the safeguards have to be right there on Mars, on a settlement by settlement basis.
They can really only hurt themselves, and simple screening can root out the suicidal factions from the workable dissidents.
Many screening techniques are fairly effective on a group (statistical) basis. However, I don't think that we have any which will identify all the potentially suicidal ones, especially ones which may be suicidal for ideological reasons.
Of course there's a possibility that somewhere along the line there will be an "incident" or "skirmish" or maybe a "civil disturbance." Horrible, people dead, new infrastructure damaged. A black mark on the project. But from a cold, reasoned perspective we still have more than we started with. We're still ahead. Now those crazy wildcat settlers built up a bunch of stuff for us and had the courtesy to die off. Cold, but there's a vacant city needing only minor repairs ready for re-colonization by whomever we choose.
What, they are all going to use neutron bombs in order for the cities to remain intact? Doesn't seem typical of earth wars to me. So much depends on the reasons for the war. If it's just a thieving thing, like so many of the mideast wars from time immemorial, you may be right.
On the other hand, when the Muslims captured a Crusader city or fort, they often destroyed it rather than occupying it in order to keep strong points from being retaken. They didn't need walled cities to control their own people and without walled cities the Crusader states were simply too vulnerable.
However, the use of Mars to get rid of people (e.g. prisoners) that Earth doesn't want is interesting, though unlikely. The expense of sending them vs keeping them would seem to be too great, at least at first.
Now if, like the Pilgrims, a religious or social group finances itself, that's another matter.
There cannot, by the very definition of rights, be any right outside or above the state, since there are no rights in nature.
??? Of course there can. That's what the enlightenment doctrine of "natural rights" is all about. It is likely true that there can be no rights without reference to some kind of philosophical system, but this does not entail embodiment in a state.
But economic development is not what I'm talking about, but raw technical progress. A stagnant society with a strong economy will not make much real progress in technology, their capabilites will be essentially set unless faced with extreme pressure to improve them.
An interesting distinction. My feeling would be that it is impossible to have a strong economy without technological progress, but, upon reflection, it might be possible for an economy with essentially no competition to remain undisturbed for a long period. If there is any significant competition then that competition would almost certainly be based on technological improvements in the products. What civilizations do you have in mind as examples of strong economies without significant technological improvements?
This is not to say that we are forever doomed to slaughter each other. But perhaps we need to keep honing our skills in that regard, keep tension in the system. Keeping us from slipping into a stagnant comfort which will in time consume us.
Well, I agree that we need to keep honing our skills in that regard, not because it is necessary for technological development in general but because there are too many identifiably nasty folks out there who would take instant advantage of whatever military weaknesses they perceive.
Economic/social superiority should be our strong right hand, but we should keep a knockout punch in our left.
although truth be told you and I differ on a very basic level on the question of globalism and the role of the nation state so I'm not going to sway you and your not going to sway me.
Yes, I'm guessing that we do differ a lot. I am an American conservative. I believe that we invented a better way of doing things here (e.g. our religious tolerance, at least until the last few years), our basic regard for justice, our emphasis on rewarding according to individual merit rather than family or class, our traditonal tolerance of differing political opinions, and our traditional regard for the opinions of our neighbors when engaging in any important undertaking. The words "a decent regard for the opinions of mankind" are among the most ringing in the Declaration of Independence.
I get very upset when I see these principles undermined, especially by people who falsely represent themselves as being conservatives but are really "authoritarian personalities", e.g. neo-nazis. I also point out that being a neo-nazi is a state of mind and does not depend on having any particular economic beliefs. Just because Hitler purported to be a socialist does not mean that all nazis are or were socialists. In fact, many of the big industrialists in Germany supported Hitler because they saw him as an alternative to the socialist and communist movements of the day.
Of course, this is nothing new. In a book called "Escape From Freedom" the psychoanalyst Eric Fromm pointed out that about 35% of American citizens were authoritarian personalities as of the 1940s. I just hate to see them gaining political influence as if their perspective is needed to meet a fundamentally different world, when in fact nothing of significance is different and the old way was the best the world has ever seen.
My point as far as their sophistication was given the caliber of people and the equipment you would need to settle mars, producing nuclear demolition devices is not going to be the most challenging thing to do. (And actually might be a great tool for terraforming to flash melt permafrost and the icecaps)
I quite agree. But the thread issue has to do with with the dangers of nuclear proliferation and the fact that it won't be hard to do merely accentuates the importance of the basic issue.
Um, you misunderstood me, I was talking about a hydrogen bomb not a fusion reactor. H-bombs gain most of their yeild via fusion, ie they are Fusion Devices vs Fissiond devices.
Yes, I see. Sorry for the misunderstanding. However, I stand by my point.
As far as controled fusion research, it's long term importance is unquestionable, even if the goal is still 20 years off it has such profound implications that I would never think to call it 'welfare for scientist' even now when I am feeling very cyical about it.
I also agree about its long-range importance. The very lack of productivity in this research, despite the billions poured into it, is what makes you cynical about it and me to call it "welfare for scientists". It is a big government research establishment with all the primary interests in preserving itself and secondary interests in getting the job done that such establishments typically (but not always) have. If the scientists in it were not on a gravy train and had real pressure to get the job done we would have a good demonstration of concept in a few years, not decades. I propose giving them 3 years more and then shutting the project down if there is no major success.
Let it be financed by private energy companies or governments with an immediate interest in getting the job done. Personally I think this would be an ideal project for a major Israeli-Arab coalition. After the oil goes, a lot of the Arab nations will be in a world of hurt.
If we:
A) cease to develop new and innovative ways to deliver death over ever greater distances and,
B) Cease vigourous competion of the scale that occurs between major industrialized nation states,
We may lose an essential element of what makes us want to strive for greater things and expand into new frontiers while at the same time cutting away the very elements that give us the means to achieve such progress.
You are talking as if (A) and (B) are positively correlated. In general, recent history suggests the opposite. Vigorous economic cooperation (B) occurs when the lower tax rate occasioned by lower defense spending allows for more investment of funds in business enterprises. It is interesting that the actual development of the industrial revolution largely occurred during the long period of peace between the end of the Napoleonic wars and World War I. And the rapid development of the German and Japanese economies after WWII occurred in large part because they had minimal expenditures for defense. The demise of the Soviet Union was in large part because of a poor basic economic model drained by large defense expenditures.
Vigorous competition seems to be needed, yes, but economic competition seems to be not only as effective, but much more effective, than military competition. The best military expenditures are the minimum necessary to keep others from attacking. I agree with you that competition is a powerful stimulus, but with Rob and Scott that the competition can become increasingly less physically destructive and still be just as, or even more, effective in maintaining the dynamism of the nation/culture/species.
Peaceful, "mature" civilizations may very well be the sort that If this is truly the case, we would as a species be far better served by a series of national colonization programs in fierce competition than by a single multi-national settlement project designed with the express purpose of eliminating the very factors that allow for rapid and great progress
Who has proposed a single multi-national settlement project? There is a huge difference in multi-national participation in setting up "the rules of the road" and in having a single multi-national settlement or set of settlements. And I know that Scott has built alternate types of settlements into his model.
Funny, I wrote a report that actually suggested that one of the best reasons for settling Mars would be to supply our war fighting assets in orbit. Mars would be the perfect Skunk Works! The last thing we would want is the UN or IAEA to be there. Ideally no one would know we were there at all.
Of course given the temprament of the board I wasn't going to float the idea but if you put it out there, lol
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Keep the blue helmets off Mars!
You are right, it would be great as a "skunk works" which is why it is in everyone's interest to see that it NOT become one.
I don't care if it is the UN or some other organization, some things influence the interests of more than one nation and so some mechanism for setting rules that multiple nations (treaty signatories at a minimum) will go by is necessary. As far as the UN is concerned, it has done many good things (ask all those who have benefitted from the World Health Organization, for example) and serves as an invaluable forum for the international discussion of these ideas. And, despite the highly inflated concerns of some provincialists, in its current structure poses NO risks to the autonomies of individual peaceful nations, especially the permanent members of the Security Council. I personally think that the UN might be an excellent mediator in issues relating to Mars but the future might dictate that other organizations would be better.
Simply put, the settlement of Mars is either a potential benefit for all mankind or it is not. If it is, the sooner a truly international conversation is begun at a governmental level, the better.
Nations give up "sovereignty" by signing and abiding by treaties. It is often in their best interest to do so for all sorts of very practical reasons, e.g international boundaries, "law of the sea", use of the electromagnetic spectrum, etc.
The Nuclear power will be a day to day necescity, and fission/fusion explosive devices are not the most sophisticated devices in the present day arsenals of us and our enemies.
Spoken like a true technocrat. And just what does the fact that they are not the most sophisticated devices have to do with the overall danger they pose? How many tanks have succumbed to "Molotov cocktails" and how many helicopters to RPGs?
I mean, hell, I could have put together a nearly working model of a basic Teller-Ulam inline fusion device my junior year of high school!
And how many years and billions of dollars later do we have a nearly working model? One of the classic cases of welfare for scientists if you ask me.
What will the proof be? I'll bet that once the first sustained, net-energy producing fusion reaction is demonstrated in public, it won't be 18 months before they are all over the world regardless of whether or not the technical details of how they did it are made public.
Thirdly, there would have to exist a supreme court with the sole purpose of safeguarding the constitution.
I would be very interested in seeing how you do this. In the US, a Supreme Court to guard the constitution (despite the fact that they have sworn to do so) is a contradiction in terms since the Constitution is whatever the Supreme Court says it is. I would be very interested in a method of assuring a Supreme Court would really see the Constitution as primary, rather than their own decision. The U.S. Constitution could be interpreted as primary by pointing out that all rights not expressly given to the federal government are reserved to the states or to the People. However, I understand that recently the Supreme Court has decided unanimously against the people being able to override them. I guess the only way to get rid of them would be for Congress to impeach them. Now that would really be an interesting trial, impeaching Supreme Court justices for failing to defend the Constitution. But the current justices, especially those that are seen as being very conservative! (e.g. Rehnquist and Scalia), are among those who are most for the doctine that "the Constitution is what the Supreme Court says it is". Which proves how fundamentally false their "conservatism" is.
Oh, and you also forgot Taiwan which was a Japanese colony for some time before WWII and became a nationalist Chinese one after Japan lost the war.
I share a lot of the concerns people have expressed about professional politicians, image, and money. This election year in the U.S. will be a sad spectacle of two political parties squeezing about a billion dollars from their wealthy supporters--mostly for favors later--and using the money essentially to lie about the other side--mostly to generate fear in the voters that the other side will win--and to lie about how great they are as well. This system causes several severe distortions: (1) it makes the parties beholden to the contributors and thus they have to support or oppose something whether it is good for the country or not; and (2) it creates enormous suspicion on the part of the voters that politicians are lying crooks that can't be trusted. This may be one reason half the electorate doesn't vote; if they're all crooks, why vote? Finally, (3) it creates deep suspicion that government itself is bad and evil, when in fact government is simply the necessary nervous system and brain of the body.
In the last twenty years the partisanship has grown deeper and more dangerous. There are books written about this. It used to be that Democrat and Republican Congressmen would argue in the chamber, then go play golf and bridge together. Their families knew each other. They went on trips together. Now, a politician with a friend in the other party is viewed with suspicion. Dialogue has broken down. Nonpartisan efforts are harder and harder to create.
But does it have to be this way? I don't think so. It is possible to have non-competitive elections. However, a political system based on non-competitive elections needs several mechanisms our culture currently lacks:
1. The election must be focused on what the country needs, and not on candidates. The debate should be on issues and plans for the future. In the case of Mars, I'd set up a series of town meetings where everyone can talk about Mars's future, not just candidates, chaired by old graybeards who are respected and are not running for anything, and see what emerges.
2. Issues of character should be left to the media to investigate; politicians and parties should view their involvement in ad hominem matters with suspicion and revulsion. Right now, this ain't going to happen in the U.S. If we had a series of ex Presidents from both parties--Carter and Ford, for example--willing to set common high standards of political behavior and denounce violations of them, regardless of party, that would help put a check on silliness about who served or didn't serve and how they served in the military thirty years ago, a nonissue that simply distracts from the country's needs and generates endless emotion. Other countries have senior statemen and stateswomen who can be more or less neutral. India and Israel both have ceremonial Presidents, as well as Prime Ministers who ruin things. Britain has a monarch. Canada has an appointed Senate and a Governor-General. One problem the US has is that everyone is immersed in a partisan system and there are no figures who easily can rise above it.
3. The ultimate ideal is to hold elections with no campaigning, nominating, or electioneering at all. In other words, no one can stand up and say "don't vote for him"; they also can't stand up and say "vote for me." I can see a system working reasonably well when people run around and say "Mars needs x and y"; they don't need to say "and by the way, vote for me and I'll implement it." It will be obvious enough who is calling for what. The only way to make this arrangement work is to create the cultural value that voters are turned off by "egotism" when someone says "vote for me." That would greatly tone down rhetoric and keep the election focused on issues.
By the way, there is one place where this noncompetitive electoral system has been used and has functioned well for about 80 years: the Baha'i Faith. There are about six million Baha'is around the world. They vote in local elections every April to elect nine-person local governing councils to coordinate their local "congregrational" activities. They also elect a local delegate who attends a national convention every April to elect a national coordinating council, and every five years the 175 national coordinating councils meet to elect a nine-member worldwide governing body. All the elections occur without mentioning of any names, without nominations, and without campaigning. People meet, pray (to set the right atmosphere), then vote silently. The system seems to produce these results:
1. No one has any idea when they might be elected to something.
2. The people who are elected are not just the noisest and loudest. They don't have to be great orators; rather, they have to have become known because they did something.
3. Since there are no campaigns, there is no polarization between liberal and conservative views within the Baha'i community. This is something campaigning does: it focuses on small differences, magnifies them, exaggerates them, and divides people into competing blocks. When there can be no discussion of candidates, issues do not emerge sharply, so the populace and specifically the electorate does not become polarized. If Mars is a multinational society, avoiding polarization is immensely important; otherwise it could be Americans versus everyone else, Americans versus Europeans, Westerners versus Asians and Muslims, everyone versus Muslims, and a dozen other possible polarizations.
4. If there is no campaigning, there are no campaign promises and no money donated or spent on campaigns. Thus those elected are free to vote on something based on merit, rather than based on prior promises and commitments.
5. When there are no campaigns, there is no negativity about elections and candidates, and there is correspondingly greater esteem for, and trust in, government. Governments that are trusted and do not destroy that trust through corruption are able to do more and be more effective than governments that are well meaning, but are not trusted.
-- RobS
Very interesting. At first I asked myself how it is possible for all Bahai's to know everyone else, then I realized that they don't have to as each body is elected by the next lower body. If I understand it, the Bahai way would remove universal suffrage for the higher offices, but would have the advantage that almost everyone personally knows the candidates they vote for.
I want less federal spending and let the local government decide how they will
spend their local budgets which have increased without increasing taxes.
And just how did the local budgets increase without increasing taxes? The only healthy way that I can think of is that the tax base increased because more people/businesses wanted to locate there. While this sometimes happens, it is not typical. More usual is deficit financing, a distinctly unhealthy way of dealing with this issue.
DISASTER WARNING!!!
_Speeches ignore impending U.S. debt disaster:
No mention of fiscal gap estimated as high as $72 trillionby Carolyn Lochhead, San Francisco Chronicle, Washington Bureau
Sunday, September 12, 2004
Washington -- The first of the 77 million-strong Baby Boom generation will begin to retire in just four years. The economic consequences of this fact -- as scary as they are foreseeable -- are all but ignored by President Bush and
Democratic challenger John Kerry, who discuss just about everything but the biggest fiscal challenge of modern times.
____If you dare, read the full text of this article at
Yes, most folks are aware that the crisis is coming. What bothers me is that politicians are avoiding making long term plans NOW. Alan Greenspan has made it quite clear that the later we begin the deal with this issue, the harder it will be.
The Bush administration is in fantasy land as Gigolo George continues to make every oriface of his administration available for the satisfaction of any corporate demand (or even minor request) and the Kerry plans have retreated to a repetition of the failed economic policies of the past.
Giving the Treasury Department was that FDR generated the funds for his work projects that saved America from economic collapse.
??? FDR did not prevent a collapse of the US economy, it had already collapsed before FDR was even elected. The question is whether or not FDR's policies helped or hindered recovery. Most free-market economists think that they hindered recovery. Certainly the recovery was very slow. Recovery from most previous crashes occurred within 2-3 years but in the Great Depression it was uncertain whether or not recovery had occurred even 10 years later.
You're correct. IMHO, this is a symptom of the single greatest economic strain on the modern world. We tried to trade a lifestyle whose cost was high in terms of labor for one whose cost was high in terms of money, and ended up increasing the cost in both. Particularly here in the States. Labor saving devices serve no purpose if every time one saves you an hour you immediately fit some other task into it. The modern world must simplify its lifestyle or perish.
There is a book called The Two-Income Trap by a Harvard lawyer (I forget her name). She analyzes the shift from the husband as breadwinner economy to the two-income economy and comes to the conclusion that the real family income of the "husband as breadwinner" economy was greater that the combined incomes in the modern situation and without disruptive social problems caused by the "latchkey" child syndrome.
She further analyzes the economy in terms of the effects of frequent layoffs and lengthy times between layoff and re-employment, the huge increases in personal bankruptcies caused by these shifts and comes to the conclusion that the average worker is much worse off now than in the 50s and suggests that the trend is going to continue.
Morris:
You are correct about the Federal Government transferring financial burdens to state and local governments. I wonder if this process could ultimately cause the dissolution of the United States. The Soviet Union sunk into debt and then dissolved. The U.S. could follow that same path.
Well, it's very hard to predict potentially chaotic results in complex systems, but I tend to think not. Despite all it's difficulties and complications the US still has the capacity to adjust quickly when there is a sense that there is a real threat to basic institutions.
And, we had all better hope not, because, as has been indicated elsewhere, the effects of a worldwide depression at this point would make the 30's look like a minor market fluctuation.
I can count on one hand all the former colonies on Earth that are doing really well. Hint: they are all Anglo-Saxon colonies***
So who says that Mars will be a power monger in the future as so few colonies on Earth are that today. Well most of them are pretty much poor compared to western standards.
***
Canada
USA
Australia
New Zealand
You forgot Singapore, which, though it was a former Anglo-Saxon colony has an ethnic Chinese majority and a racially fairly balanced government.