You are not logged in.
no matter where I am on Earth, it's only going to take 24 hours (or, if we want to split hairs, 23.59 hours!) to see another sunrise (orbit around our sun
Nope, actually it takes 24 hours to go from sunrise to sunset every day of the year BUT ONLY AT THE EQUATOR. The 23.9 hour day you mention is refered to as a sidreal day, or the time it takes for Earth to turn 360 degrees once. This is useful to astronomers because it is the time it takes for any star (Excluding the sun due to its proximity to Earth) to return to it's origional position. The two are different because as Earth turns it also goes around the sun, and Mercury's days are so wacky because it moves so fast around the sun it practically outruns it when the planet is at its perigee.
Where do I think we'll go after Mars? The migration of humans off of Earth will likely be like that of humans out of Africa, slow and glacial rather than speedy. It will be influenced by the commodities we can more readily get on the system's various moons and planets. Eventually they will be so desired that people just quit the hassle of running back to Earth every few years and just start self-sustaining cities on the planets.
For example, astronomers will colonize Mercury fairly early on because it's an excellent place to have a telescope. There is practically zero atmosphere and no sun for 176 days of the year, then sun for the next 176 days, a perfect place for both celestial and helispheric observatories.
The Moon will likely be the first place to be permenently colonized, becasue it will be a much cheaper place to manufacture goods than Earth and close enough that residents won't have to part with that pale blue dot. It turns out that money makes space go round, too, not just the world. Because of its proximity to Earth, I feel that the majority of space-borne goods will come from the Moon, not the asteroid belt.
Europa could easily become a colony once we get more advanced radiation sheilding. I've heard that the radiaton there would kill an unsheilded person in 20 minutes, definately an obstacle. If there's life there people will come very soon after and likely set up a colony on the surface or under the ocean (20 km of free sheilding is a nice bargain) to study it and Jupiter.
Ah, Saturn. Titan will be colonized before anything else, with smaller settlements in the rings to mine minerals. What makes Titan so appealing is that it's very faithful to the conditions Earth was under when it first came up with life, which makes it a nice science target. Interesting places always attract people, you have to admit.
Unfortunately, Uranus is kind of uninteresting, at least according to Voyager. However, I've heard of planes before to mine exotic elements like Deuterium in the gas giants, and Uranus it the best target for this.The reason to pick Uranus is that it has the lightest gravity of any gas giant, making it the easiest to go to Earth from.
Finally, Neptune/Triton would be colonized, well, just because. It's a spectacular planet with a spectacular moon, by the time we have the ability to colonize it, people would want it. Additionally, Trition is a very interesting little moon, it's geologically active and has a nice little atmosphere. Pluto, too will be colonized, but it's too early to tell why. When the New Horizons probe flyby's it we'll learn much more aobut the oddball world.
You guys will get a kick out of this. I found a flash game at the JPL website that allows you to design a mission to Europa and look for life! In it you pick the number and type of instruments you want to send (Up to four) along with the probe, see if it survived liftoff and en route problems, and use the instruments to see if you can find life with them. Mine was highly succesful, proving in one week the existence of ET . Note, this is the high-speed version, dial-up users might want to use the other version.
The big problem I see with sending a cryo/hydrobot mssion is that you can't send 20 miles of control cable down through that ice pack and expect it to stay intact. You also face daunting problems with trying to comunicate with the hydrobot via remote control. 12 miles is a LONG way for even ELF radio waves to go through, I estimate that it would probably take hours just to e-mail one photo up to the mothership on the surface. Naturally, the hydrobot would be of limited means, it would have to be programed to first spend about four days collecting pictures and temperature/composition readings, then pick the 20 photos it found most intriguing and phone home.
Perhaps another option would be to design a more advanced form of microwave communication. I think that you could send data much faster through a microwave link, but this would require more power. Or perhaps I have no idea what I'm talking about and should shut up when it comes to this field. But humans are creative, someone (Perhaps me!) will think of something to fix all the little problems.
I wouldn't worry about the future of the human race for two reasons. 1) I'll most likely be dead some short time before or after the turn of the 22nd century, so it really doesn't matter to me or anyone I'm talking to right now. B) Humans are very creative, I'm confident my distant descendants will think of something, though we can already start now.
Keeping the neighborhood won't be too hard for the next three billion years. All we have to do is string out a huge sheet of opaque mylar at LaGrange point L1 to reduce the total amount of sunlight reaching the surface. This wouldn't be too hard, and also would be a heck of a lot cheaper than asteroid deceleration. We'll have the capibility to do this in 50-100 years, but won't need to for 300 million, in the meantime we can sit back in our hammocks bickering over oil in the Middle East (Though I'd rather not). :laugh:
However, this isn't a permanent solution. To preserve the human race after the sun goes Beatleguce on us we'll need to perform an exit-door procedure. I say we should send 2,000 people out to the nearest Earth-like planet/moon, there's gotta be one at least within 50 light years of here. We'll have the technology to do this in 200-300, and will have more pressing matters by the time we need to use it.
More urgent problem: Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies are going to collide in about 1.2 billion years (I think). Presumably most stars from both will be pulled together by their gravity into a new supergalaxy, which is cool. However, many of the stars are likely to condense into a thick cluster at the center exposing us to intense cosmic radition, not cool
. In short, we have to get out, and go to another nearby galaxy, FAR easier said than done. I'm really not sure how we do that, but think of it this way: 1.5 million years ago the big new things were fire and hand axes. Today we have the internet, footprints on the moon, airplanes, deep-diving submersables, four spacecraft leaving the building, left tracks on Mars, and the Spice Girls. In another 1.5 billion years imagine where we'll be. I'm confident we'll solve the problem.
An excellent book I just recieved for Christmas that should appeal to this audience is Beyond. It's essentially a collection of the most spectacular photos ever taken of eight of the planets in the solar system and the sun. Keeping with the title, every photo except one was taken by a robotic explorer, some of which include Voyager, Galileo, the Vikings, and the Mariners. Something that this audience should enjoy is that the Mars section dominates the book, with dozens of pictures from MGS, Mars Odyssey, and the Vikings of the Valles Marineris, sand dunes, and dry channels (Or perhaps cannals? ).
The only major complaint I have with the book is the lack of pictures from landers, which totals to two, I believe. Yes, the MGS and Mars Odyssey photos are breathtaking, but the Vikings landed as well as orbited, something you might overlook from reading it. It also would have been cool to see the surface of Venus and the Moon, but there's nothing from the Venera, Surveyor, Luna or Lunkhod missions. Additionally, there are three pages devoted to Uranus, why (so few, I mean)?
I hope that or the nasty price won't discourage you from checking out this book. I don't know of any better or more concise collection of actual photos of our fellow planets, definately something you should look into if it interests you.
Well, it currently is Christmas, so it might be a bit late to post wishes. Maybe some other holiday hasn't happened yet (Quanza anyone?) that I can wish for stuff on. Anyway, two more additions, one semi-realistic, and one that's not.
First, a very nice present would be a Martain lander three-peat. Wouldn't it be great if Beagle, Spirit, and Opportunity all make it down okay? I hope to see at least two work, here's hoping Mars Express picks up Beagle's dial tone in a few hours. Even if it failed, we still have the two MER's to count on, but I don't think we can count Beagle out just yet.
A much wilder solar system trip would be to explore Triton, Neptune's biggest moon. I've never seen geysers or a volcano in person on Earth, but both of those exist on Trition, with a twist. It's so cold there that geysers spurt up liquid nitrogen and volcnoes erupt blocks of ice! Triton is the coldest object in the solar system yet examined up close, with a surface temperature hovering at a chilly 20 degrees Farenhiet above absolute zero. I beleive a Pop Tarts commercial said it best "It's so cool, it's hot!"
I just thought of another cool off-planet destination that also involves Mercury. Personally, a giant sun doesn't singularly qualify a planet to be on my top ten list, but Mercury has another thing going for it, it's tiny whisp of an atmosphere and slow rotational speed makes it a great place to see the stars. Imagine going there during a total plaentary lineup like that which occured back in 1977, I believe. From one point you could see Mercury, Venus, Earth, the Moon, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn! With reasonably good binoculars, you could also see the Galilean moons, Uranus, and maybe even Phobos. Additionally, you'd get the most brilliant stars ever seen, probably around five times as many as even perfect conditions on Earth (Ie night the Titanic sank, no wind, no moon).
That would probably be my #5.
Perhaps there should be a third choice: "Who cares?" I'd vote for that.
I have nothing else to say except that you should watch Mystery Science Theater 3,000. It's what's on my avatar. Google it, you won't regret it.
:laugh:
Do you think there are organisms on Earth, already capable to survive on Mars?
Certainly, there would be a huge range of extremeophiles yearning to live in such an environment. What you have to keep in mind is that every square inch, I'm not kidding, EVERY square inch (Minus maybe three or four in the Atacama desert and Antarctica) of Earth is crawling with microorganisms. They are as integral to how this planet operates as is the hydrosphere or the atmosphere, and some of them live in such terrible hellholes Mars would seem like a vacation. There are strains of bacteria that live (Read: thrive) in nuclear reactors, sulfuric acid, and the middle of the Antarctic ice sheet. While I can't name any specific examples I'm sure that there are several species of bacteria that would thrive down in those hidden aquifers below the surface, no matter what life will find a way.
Ah, Helios, that was what I was thinking about earlier! A plane like that could stay aloft for months, and when you combine it with the technology of inflatable wings it would be light enough to pack into a Mars probe. A plane like that could explore a huge area of Mars, dipping down to altitiudes of as low as 30 feet. Nice idea, I hope they send a probe like that soon.
My most fond daydream is to be standing behind a protected, shielded glass in a dugout building on Mercury, looking at the sun from so close.
Yeah, you'll need those sunglasses on Mercury. The Mercury fantasy brings to mind a quote form the movie Pi "When I was a little kid, my mom always told me not to look into the sun, so one time when I was six I did." He's temporarily blinded and, well, you'd have to see the movie to get the significance. Anyway, here's my list of interplanetary getaways.
#1: Von Braun City, Delos, Tau Ceti: This is the ficticious planet from the "What if the Event Never Happened" forum. Von Braun City would be a small setelment near the equator with a nearby beach filled to the brim with stromotolites. The beginings of the first tropical rain forest (Brought with the colonists) is sprouting up outside the farmlands, and perhaps the best part about the planet is that all you have to pack is a toothbrush and some casual clothes. The atmosphere is 27% oxygen, with a thick ozone layer, so you can run around all you want outside wihtout a spacesuit!
#2: Titan, Saturn system: Who wouldn't want to go to a moon where there's plenty of beachside real estate, a thick atmosphere for airplanes, and you loose 75% of your weight just for going?! Seriously, I'd love to see Saturn suspended above those orange clouds while standing on the shore of the systems only other ocean. The fact that airplanes get along there too is fine by me, I couldn't stand being seperate from the ability to fly for too long (See my intersts).
#3: Olympus Mons, Mars (5976 AD): This would be one of the first cities on a terraformed Mars 5,000 years from now (Hey, I can dream can't I!). The city is located by the shore of the Atlantic Ocean (Some Italian astronomer named it that back in the 1800s and apparently no one switched it in 5,000 years) on the foothills of Olympus Mons, enriched by fresh volcanic soil. The failure to find any life on Mars during the initial exploration in the 21st century actually turned out to be a blessing in disguise, exempting Mars from the ban on terraforming of any planet with indiginous life passed in 2027. Terraforming was not easy, and took forever, but it did gave us a second Earth. This one gets #3 just on basic coolness factor.
#4: Hadley City, Moon, Terran system. This would be one of the first Lunar colonies, tucked away in Hadley Rile (Hence the name). Located near the foothills of the lunar Alps, you can enjoy activities ranging from golfing (A long par 5 is 10,000 yds) to 6th-g skateboarding (The newest X-treme sport) to hiking in the Alps. There's even a historical landmark at the Apollo 15 landing site.
One serious limitation of this proposed mission is that it's too short. The plane exits the capsule and maybe gets an hour of flight time at absolute best, then its mission is complete. $100 million for a mission that I can fly here on Earth for a $100 glider rental. The inherant problem with all robotic probe missions is that the price is almost entirely destination charge and teaching a robot to fend for itself, only a tiny fraction is the actual cost of the probe.
Another idea would perhaps be to launch a solar-powered plane that could stay aloft for at least three months at altitudes of up to 20,000 feet. Similar flights have been made on Earth, and perhaps they could soon be applied to Mars. This would combine the best of both worlds, the endurance of a balloon and the manuverability of an airplane. Also, you could land a probe and then launch a helicopter that could land at the pad when needed. This would be able to search much farther than a rover, but have the lifetime of one.
If any of you want to know what it'd be like to fly on Mars, you should download the demo of X-Plane, and perhaps by the full version. To the best of my knowledge, it's the only flight sim out there that allows you to fly on Mars, and even lets you create your own planes to fly on either planet! I've found that it's far harder to fly there than it would seem, play the demo and you'll see why.
EDIT: Good grief, that last paragraph had WAY too much repition, the edit is much better.
plus the fact that a human geologist/scientist works *much* faster than a robot: looking around, intuitively knowing where to go, what to pick up.
Yeah, that's kinda what my point was. If you look at the comparisons, it's almost sad how little work was done in missions like the Vikings and Pathfinder. Essentially, the Vikings landed, scanned some soil and sat for six years saying that there's no life on Mars before finally kicking off. Compare that to how you'd do it on Earth. One geologist would charter a small plane to head out to the Atacama desert, take some soil samples, read the results and head back home. Elapsed time is around an hour, and the cost is aobut $2,000 for equipment (Realistic?) plus $250 for the plane and $3 for lunch. Not bad compared to Viking's inconclusive results for an astronomically high price.
Pathfinder did so little that even NASA says it's biggest accomplishment is getting to the surface intact. I suppose that it really wasn't designed to return much scientific gain, but still, besides the airbags and Sojourner, all Pathfinder proved was that JPL employees could give rocks wacky names like Scooby Doo, Yogi, and Couch. If you could make a robot that could do the amount of work in its lifetime that geologist on Earth can do in a day it would be an astounding accomplishment. Nothing will come close to it within the next fifty years (Robot tech just isn't THAT good) and I'm not that patient! :angry:
As for helicopters, yes that would certantly be possible! All you need as an increadibly lightweight frame made out of something like mylar and kevlar and some gigantic rotors. The bonus of having thin air is that you can spin the rotors faster without exceeding the sound (And efficency drop) barrier. This means that electric motors can spin at their ideal speed without need for energy-zapping gear systems. Another bonus is that even though the copter's airframe would only seem to be moving at 20 mph (What's called indicated air speed) it's ground speed would be 200 mph. That allows you to cover lots of ground very quickly, and since it's a helicopter you can stop wherever you like.
"The Climate Orbiter missed Mars because ground-based experts mixed English and metric measurements to make critical navigation calculations.
Investigators blamed the lapses on underfunding and a compressed development schedule that didn't provide enough people to work on the programs or allow enough cross-checking for errors. "
*Well that's just great! :angry:
How boneheaded, a mix-up like that. Unforgiveable.
And yet still no one listens to my plea to switch to the metric system! If Boenig had been measuring in meters and kilos such a problem never could have arose. I found out recently that the US is now officially THE ONLY country that still uses the English system of measurments, officially. Even Liberia, which long used English units too, has switched (Which will probably spark yet another civil war ).
You'd think people would listen to something like MCO, but no. Why does everyone think it would be so hard to switch?
One of the biggest arguments against sending people to Mars is that it's way to expensive. However, one time I decided to stop and think about which would actually have better exploration efficency and therefore be a better buy. The result? You can actually save a lot of money by sending people to Mars than just sending a robot and crossing your fingers that it doesn't end up lke the two thirds that just crashed or failed.
Okay, so, let's compare a mission like Mars Direct to the MER missions. The MERs will cover about 100 square meters a day for 90 day, IF all goes as planned. So for $200 million you get measurments and an analysis of rocks covering a total area of 9,000 square meters. If you sent a human mission with 6 astronauts, two of them could be working at all times on a three-shift basis. I estimate that two astronauts could cover 100 meters in about one hour or so, so in less than four days you accomplish the equivalent work of an entire rover mission. Additionally, the team will stay for more than a year, so you get a hundred times more work done just studying rocks.
But that's not all! A human mission could could also carry a vehicle such as a truck-style rover or even a helicopter to scan an much wider area in much less time. They could also carry more heavy equipment and study everything more thuroughly, along with the ability to carry samples home. Overally, I think ti's fair to say that a Mars Direct mission could get 1-2,000 times more work done than an unmanned rover, along with being more reliable. Once you factor in a price tag of $20 billion (Fair price?) the total comes to equal -to- twice the efficency of a MER.
And that doesn't even factor into account other things like money returned to the economy through more jobs and spinoffs or a hightened intrest in science leading to more people going into those fields. Of course, there's also the bonus that we (The US) get to be the first to go. If we want the most cost-effective mission, I think it'd be a good bet to try to go manned. What do you think?
Ecrasez: "You're a bright young man (very bright... sure you're only 14?!)
Hmm, I think so. :;): I guess you just kind of have to go by faith considering that this is the internet and all. Actually, I could do some intersting stuff provided no one ever checked for changes in my profile, such as claim a PhD or become whatever minoraty/majority I want to be.
Ecrasez: "I'm the only female here... so far as I know."
Sorry, but I really can't help you with that. Again, theoretically I could've filled the form out a little differently and say I could sympathize with you, but that would be kind of dishonest. That must be like me in my Trig class, I'm one of only four freshmen (The rest are sophmores or juniors) in there!
I agree that it can be very easy to misinterpret people on the internet without any tone of voice or body language to go with it, but to tell you the truth I'm not very good at interpreting people off-line either. I guess I'm probably mildly autistic or something, my strengths are elswhere.
As for my stand on terraformation, I maintain that if there's life we should leave it alone, for the scientific gain of studying it, but if we somehow find a way to prove that there's nothing there go ahead. I'm not going to be the one to terraform it anyway, what's the minimum cost $3-6 trillion. I'm not paying for that! :laugh:
Wow, this topic is getting completely out of control! I was going to quote part of what you said but instead I'll address one point at a time because there's too much in what you said that I'd like to adress. First, I didn't accuse you of complaining about men. I was just making a point that right now we've happened to reach a point where we're closer to equality than ever before. That doesn't mean I assume you or anyone else opposes that view, I'm just presenting a fact.
Second, well, how do I apologize for being too stern? I wasn't trying to, so sorry if it came across that way. I was actually just poking fun at the exchange of comments at the top of the page between Cindy and Rxle so it's not like I was taking everything too seriously. Maybe I should use more of these emoticons to convey the point next time. :laugh:
Whatev.
the "loud, burping, smelly, crazed Klingon-slob types" is the ideal to shoot for. Give me a break.
You mean you only want women in space?
*No way!
Ummm, sure? ???
Humans will go when we're ready, it's just how it works. It just so happened that when we moved to North America it was the "loud, burping, smelly" type of all-male people who did the first exploration. When we first went to the Moon it was in style to have our explorers be married young grad students, who again were all-male. When the time comes to live perminently on Mars or go to another star system it will occur because we're at the right juncture technologically, not idealogically.
Cindy, I don't exactly know what you meant when you said you were going off topic earlier, but since it un/intentionally became some childish sexism thing I'll say something on the matter. We're living in an interesting time right now. Before it was entirely one half of the population that got to do all the fun stuff like explore, fight wars, and be obnoxious in public, specifically the male half. If people complain about us being not perfect what they don't realize is that we're actually closer to perfection (If that exists) than ever before. Only 30 years ago NASA didn't take women seriously enough to allow one to leave Earth, let alone walk on the Moon. Now we're almost assured that the first people to Mars will be a neat cross-section of humans, something that hasn't happened before in exploration.
Come to think of it, why am I the one saying that when I'm the youngest one talking right now (Assuming y'all filled out your profiles honestly)? I wasn't even around to witness, well, anything I just said, or maybe there's some humor to it I'm too young to get. So any thoughts now that you all feel old?
(Don't worry, I'm kidding, too.)
Okay, in hindsight I shouldn't've used the word "ethically." First, I hate any argument that involves ethics simply because of all the tripe I've heard against cloning, GM crops, and evolution. Second, there's a scientific reason to go red as well. Sure, there might be life on many other worlds out there circling distant G-type stars, but what if there isn't? Even if we find indiginous life on Mars we have no reason to assume it's common elsewhere, just more circumstantial evidence along the lines of (Caveman voice) "Oh, loook, it happen here! There must be life everywhere!" That argument didn't work for Percival Lowell, it's not going to work now.
So let's assume for a moment that it turns out that Mars is the only non-Earth nearby source of life. If we destroy the whisp of an ecosystem that exists with terraforming, we'd forever loose a wealth of information on how life comes about and where it can survive. We'd be back to working with an example of one, and necessitate yet more speculation and guesswork. I don't want to spark a your-mama argument, but perhaps a spirited discussion on the matter would be pertinent.
However, if we can conclusively prove that Mars doesn't have life now and terraforming won't pave over any previously-living fossils, I'd be all for terraforming as long as the price is right. Both are pretty daunting tasks, as no matter what there would always be some faint glimmer of hope that life just might be somewhere we haven't looked yet. As for the second, any way you look at it terraforming has a monsterous price tag that would be very difficult to justify commercially or scientifically. And no matter what you run into the problem of how to get Mars' core running again. Perhaps a sequel to The Core would give us the answer.
There is no reason to expect a martian DNA with the same 3 letters codon code than on earth, for example. There is even no reason to expect a DNA molecule, other molecular information support are possible. I would be very suspicious if that happened, of a contamination. But you are right that, given the law of chemistry and physics being the same everywhere, some similarities will emerge.
Yes, that's true, to some degree at least. I'd be willing to stretch to say that under different conditions including a colder environment, reduced gravity, and near-zero tides life could arise without the standard A T C G combo that we know and love. However, you must also take into account that the reason A T C and G ended up becoming the components of DNA was because they are the chemicals that will naturally mix given the chance, ditto for amino acids. However, there would be more lenience on sugars, protiens, and acids because there are so many more possible combinations of formulae. Just look at the diversity of monerans on Earth! I suppose that while all water-based life will superficially resemble Terran life, any trained biologist would be able to tell it didn't come from anywhere in this neighborhood.
I don't think we can justify the terraformation of Mars if we find life there simply because the proccess is so expensive and we'd be paving over the only known extraterrestrial life. Can we ethically (And I hate to use that word) do that?
I've been watching CNN for the last 30 minutes and haven't heard the Wright's name once! In fact, the special tonight is about inside Iraq. Big deal, they say something about Iraq every day, is the public really so apathetic that they can't muster up a little interest about the centennial of flight?
I'm glad Bush didn't say anything about going to the Moon. Even if he said something it's not like we'd have gone, better to not even get our hopes up. I'm just waiting until Scaled Composites or one of the other X-Prize contenders gets us there.
This site has all the information you need to know about the X-Prize. Surprisingly, several other companies are getting close to their flights, too, but none as close as Scaled Composites. Canadian Arrow and Starchaser Industries have both had very succesful runs of their engines for the full duration necessary. I didn't know that Scaled had done this until I clicked that link, thanks, Bill.
Unfortunately, Space Ship One will top out very far from orbit. Its maximum speed will be about mach 4, and it will barely touch space before falling back at an altitude of 62 miles. It would take a lot of work to scale that up to an orbital system and still keep the cost down, but a company like Scaled Composites could do it. We are talking about the same guys that built the VariEze, Voyager, and Global Flyer here.
I agree 100% - therefore evidence of Marsian life will either smack us in the face or there won't be any at all.
Aah! Now everyone's spelling Martian wrong, not just Cindy! For further referance, that's "Martian", not "Marsian." I really don't know who decided to end one planet's possesive adjective with a "tian" (Mars), and another with a "sian" (Venus), but I don't make the rules, I just tell other people to follow them.
As for an actual response, life doesn't necessarily have to smack us in the face to be there. After all, it took years to develop the technology to discover life in places like Yellowstone, nuclear reactor cores, and Antarctica. Life is extremely good at living, but it also does a pretty good job at hiding, so I don't think it's very surprising that neither of the Vikings found anything. Heck, even with today's technology we can hardly find anything in the Atacama desert.
Come to think of it, how different would life look on Mars, even if it origionated there? I haven't taken biology yet, but from what I've learned life arose in a very predictable pattern here on Earth. First the tides mixed up a soup of proteins, then surface tension bound tiny spheres of nuclear material (DNA, not uranium) together, which after gaining a cell wall of lipids became Earth's first (And still most successful) life. It's hard to imagine this natural process occuring in a substantially different way on Mars, so Martian life actually should be pretty simmilar to Terran life. Of course, no one will mention that until we find a strain of bacteria identical to E. Coli tucked away in Gusev Crater.
fi - Intelligence is more rare. Life has xisted on Earth for 3.5 billion years, but the oldest animal fossil is a jelly fish 680 million years old, the oldest vertebrate is 570 million years old, and the first mammal appeared 200 million years ago. The earliest humans ancestor was australopithecine, 4 million years ago. There are some fragments that show huminine diverged from apes about 5 million years ago, but none of those fragments have sufficient detail to assign a species. The evolutionary line that led to modern humans diverged from australopithecine about 2.5 million years ago. Rather than trying to guess which human ancestor was first intelligent, lets use 2.5 million years. 2.5 million / 3.5 billion = 0.00071
There's a hole in that reasoning, though. From the way I understand it, it assumes that every elgible planet will evolve intellegant life. I think this a very naive assumption that a lot of people that go into SETI make at least partially. Let's look at it logically. First, porkyariotes, bacteria, were the dominant group for 2-2.5 billion years, a nice starting place. After that, eykariotes like ameboas and protizoans emerged and dominated for 400 million years. Next, invertibrate life took over, and once fishes emerged the body plan of the dominant phylum remained, just in different forms.
After amphibions fell out of favor, dinosaurs ruled, then mammals. In all this time, perhaps as many as 15-20 sentient (Dolphin intellegance or better) animals existed, but only one had the dirve and capibilities to leave the place. Obviously, you can be an incredibly succesful species without being to bright. For this reason, I think that at most we can expect one in 50 Earth-like planets to harbor human-quality intellegance, and that's a very generous estimate.
As for the Drake equation, I believe that it could be useful, but it needs a few tweeks. First, change the variable from rate of star formation to the number of stars. Also, there should be a variable for nuber of terrestrial planets with the resources to allow for heavy construction. You can be as smart as Einstein but you won't go anywhere unless you have something to build with. Other than that it appears pretty solid.
The problem of course, is that we don't know enough about the universe to fill in variables with any confidence. That's why I think we need to put some money into finding an Earth-like planet. Once we find one, and see how hard it is to do so, we'll have a better picture to work with. Right now we're working with an example of one, like trying to study the oceans with a cup of water. After finding another Earth, it would be like trying to assemble a puzzle with the picture to help, while before all of the pieces are upside down.
Right, steering the discussion back on topic, I've recently heard more and more evidence that Mars is dead because it's simply too small to keep the tectonic cycle circulating for more than one or two billion years. I don't like, and I use that word tentatively, this idea, because what it means is essentially that an Earth-like planet has to be above a certain size to maintain Earth-like longevity. Of course, you can't pick and choose evidence based on what you like and dislike, facts are facts and that's the foundation of science.
I'm not quite sure how we can tie this into the topic discussion, because under this scinerio there is no singular event that we can ask "What if" about. However, after I got the creative juices going I managed to think of one absurd event that could have gone differently and give us a different Mars today.
Okay, there's mounting evidence that Neptune formed much closer to the sun than it is today, and as it ventured outward its tidal forces greatly influenced the growth of the solar system. So what if as Neptune was forming it got into a slightly more eliptical orbit? Now, let's just suppose that this new orbit sent a chunk of material about the size of Europa towards Mars. If it happened to be on a certain orbit, it would intersect with Mars, areobrake, and go into orbit around it. Stranger things have happened, like Uranus tipping over or Earth getting its moon.
I estimate that a Europa-size object would exert such huge tidal forces on Mars, that shearing alone could keep the core running. Of course, it's entirely possible that this is an insane idea only a poorly-educated freshman would concoct, but let's assume it were possible. With Mars' core buring strong to today, it could keep the sillicate-carbon cycle running and stay at a comfy Earth-like temperature. Imagine what that would be like for Lowell and the other astronomers to look through their telescopes and see vast oceans and forests, the inner system would be a very different place under this scinareo.
I actually enjoyed talking with you guys about interstellar transportation, but that whole thing is kind of off topic in here. Perhaps we should move that into the "interplanetary transport" forum.
I'm optimistic about the MER missoins, but you never know. Sure, both Viking landers fuctioned flawlessly, but lately NASA's had some downright embarrasing failures happen to them. For example, the Mars Climate Orbiter was lost from a failure to convert from metrics to English units, perhaps a case for the US to switch. Two thrids out of all missions to Mars have been failures, so I think we should look to the Russians.
As you can see, though virtually every attempt the Soviets made to Mars ended in nasty luck, they had a wildly succesful program exploring Venus. The Americans have succesfully landed three probes, by contrast, almost every Russian probe landing has been a success, only marred by a few failed Mars lander. Is Mars the Bermuda Triangle of the solar system? ???
Unfortunately, the Russian space agency has such anemic funding they can't possibly hope to launch a planetary mission anytime soon. I think the ESA and NASA could learn a thing or two by examining their track record, which also includes the Luna series and Lunkhod, the first unmanned rover mission. If it weren't for their often terrible luck, the Russians would unquestionably own the solar system.