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Not sure if it's realistic but Space X talk in terms of having a Starship undertake 3 orbital flights within a 24 hour period. Not clear how that relates to refuellers but it shows ambition!
I think everything about Space X suggests they are aware of all these boil-off issues and have resolved them in a theoretical sense.
A lot of these "barriers" are proving less difficult over time. Previously a lot of people made out a retro rocket landing on Mars was impossible - now nobody says that.
My view is if they have a Starship rocket that can get humans safely to orbit and land back safely on Earth, they essentially have the rocket to get humans to Mars because the interplanetary part of the journey is the easiest. When I say land back safely on Earth, I think they will eventually try test rock-field landings.
Looking at the staging time and boiloff for a mars window of opportunity to launch. Since we want 2 cargo ships to land a full mars cycle ahead of another pair with a crewed ship ignoring the crew size thats quite a total number of launches to make it happen.
First off, boiloff is a lot lower in interplanetary space than in planetary orbit, as there is no nearby warm body radiating IR, so for most of the trip you will see a much lower boiloff rates. Secondly, the boiloff figures you quote are for hydrogen in LEO.
For LOX and LM there are ways to reduce boil off maybe to near zero. By orientating the craft so the engines or crew capsule faces the sun the boil off rate could be dramatically reduced because the amount of solar radiation absorbed would be greatly reduced and the heat radiated to space would be maximized.
But by default liquid methane is very close in temperature to liquid oxygen since it’s boiling point is -161.5 °C and it becomes a solid at -182 °C. Cryogenic Propellant Temperatures Due to the closeness in boiling points, we’ll likely see SpaceX chill their methane down closer to -180 degrees Celsius as they continue to squeeze performance out of that beast.
We don't want the CH4 to freeze, so the LOX should be allowed to rise to the freezing point of CH4 -182.5°C =90.65K .http://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/tran … 02-06e.pdf
The measure for the boil-off is the amount of vapours per unit time. It can be an absolute measure – kg/h, kg/day or a relative measure – % vaporized from total amount per unit time.
https://space.stackexchange.com/questio … ip-to-mars
The atmospheric boiling points of the chosen propellants are as follows: Oxygen 90K (-183C, -287F) Methane 111K (-161C, -258F) Compare Hydrogen 20K (-253C, -423F) Space is a place of temperature extremes: roasting in the sun, but pretty cold in the shade.
https://www.reddit.com/r/SpaceXLounge/c … ions_uses/
Note that simply painting Starship with the right white paint could reduce the solar absorptance from 0.39 to 0.09, which would reduce boiloff by a factor of 0.23, to 0.62 percent/day for LOx and 0.72 percent/day for methane, even if Starship is oriented in the worst possible way.
https://cryocooler.org/resources/Documents/C17/056.pdf
So since the star ship is going to have tile its got to spend its time facing away from the sun. If its got solar wings its got to be able face them towards the sun. The other side of the ship needs to be white to reflect heat. Since its seems that we are going to launch no quicker than a month appart that leaves days between refueling for it to boil off even with all of the above being taken into account.
Lets ignore the ration and difference of fuel boiloff and use the lower 0.62 %
At month 1 we are basically zero in the main tank with the header tank holding 100Mt and at the next
1 month launch that fuel load will have boiled off to become 80Mt in the header tank.
We fill the main tank with 100Mt and wait for the next flight to happen.
Of course the header tank will drop to 68Mt and the main tank will be at 80Mt of fuel due to the boil off staying consistent.
This is why we need to fill faster and having the extra ships of cargo makes the refueling levels even higher to achieve.
So at that time of 2 months end you have a ship that has been in orbit and has just 150Mt for the ship to use.
Felix's latest video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBmbkK043nw
Interesting details on the catching system and issues with the heat tiles.
Felix says 3-6 weeks for the first orbital launch . "Solid chance" of a September launch. I agree but that is of course subject to FAA approval, and that will be essentially a political decision in this case.
Noise attentuation technology must have moved on since the 1960s!
I will be surprised if Musk and co. haven't been working on this.
Cape Canaveral, as I recall is very flat and open, as if they couldn't be bothered to make much of an effort.
Surely you want to create some shock wave absorbing barriers around the launch site.
I was talking to a friend the other day about how walled gardens can be so quiet, even in big cities. Surely, it's the same issue here.
There's always harm to wildlife and discharge of pollutants as issues in any EPA environmental impact statement. These generally provide opportunities for bureaucrats to stall things, yes, but they are not the top priority.
Life and safety of the public are the very top priority. That's why I keep bringing up the lethal levels of noise for unprotected folks not inside a heavy bunker, and the very real threat of explosion and fire for quantities of deflagrating propellants in the thousands of tons.
While the decision predates the existence of the EPA, these very same top-priority risks are a very large part of why NASA did not ask Von Braun to build his Nova design to go to the moon. They went with his Saturn-5 design, to limit the risks of lethal noise and incredibly-powerful explosions.
In the early 1960's when this decision was made, Von Braun had paper designs for all the Saturns and Novas. They decided to go with his Saturn-1 and Saturn-5 designs as acceptable risks for noise and explosion, and set the 3 mile (5 km) radius for the exposed human exclusion zone.
GW
I think in terms of noise and pressure impact, marine life might well be more adversely affected than life on land.
That would mean barging the parts to the launch site since building the assemblies at the site would be even more difficult and there is still the environmental impact studies which would also make the noise on the water a killing zone for marine animals.
??? They are making billions and stand to make trillions as more and more of these mRNA vaccines come on stream.
https://www.pmlive.com/pharma_news/mode … q2_1374425
$4.4 billion revenue in Q2. This is just going to rise and rise as boosters come into play and other mRNAs are developed for flu, bacterial pneumonia and so on.
So the fact that they are producing a vaccine and not making billions means they are selling salt water, right....
That's just a hit piece on Ivermectin.
A meta study showed it is effective.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexBerenson … 0012427266
It's basically for treating very sick people.
Big Pharma is interested only in making billions from patented products. Ivermectin is long out of patent. So Big Pharma has to kill Ivermectin as an effective part of treatment in order that its vaccines and anti-viral can prosper.
Here is another push cured but its not
Is ivermectin a treatment for COVID-19? What you should know about this controversial drugIvermectin, an anti-parasitic, was administered to some patients across the globe, with seemingly positive effects.
Ivermectin is usually given to treat parasitic infections like lice and Strongyloides, according to Eachempati.
It did say lab tests found the drug stopped the reproduction of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that cause the disease.
However, to be effective, the dosages would need to be "100-fold higher than those approved for use in humans."So its a poison that kills anything in your system which now allows the white cells to work against the virus and not the parasite which is why it had a plasebo effect....as well as not safe for you to take in quantity to kill covid
Those "not fully vaccinated" includes those who have had one shot (which will have compromised their vaccination) and those who are so sick or frail that it is too dangerous for them to be vaccinated.
You need to compare healthy unvaccinated people with healthy vaccinated people and see who does better.
Louis,
From the same Twitter thread (or whatever they're called):
I may only be a po dumb southerner, but that graph don't look so hot for them fellers without a vaccine.
... But countries, as a matter of public health policy, intentionally spreading this disease amongst those who are not vaccinated against this nasty little Chinese bio weapon (brought to you through the charitable contributions of the American tax payers)?
Yikes!
I sincerely hope that all goes well for the people of Iceland, but intentionally spreading a lethal disease has to be about the worst idea I've heard of.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1426715232475533319
Elon confirms we're on: "First orbital stack of Starship should be ready for flight in a few weeks, pending only regulatory approval".
I wouldn't trust anything that came out of Austin.
Was surprised to see this headline Austin, Texas, activated its emergency alert system to warn the public of a "severely worsening COVID-19 situation" as area hospitalizations continue to surge.
According the Texas Department of Health, there are over 3,400 active cases of COVID-19 in Travis County, where Austin is located. The county returned to Stage 5 COVID-19 restrictions last week, meaning fully vaccinated individuals should wear a mask and those at high-risk with underlying conditions should avoid large gatherings where masks are not required.
Doesn't explain the features in the virus that are consistent with "gain of function". WHO are bought and paid for by the CCP regime. We can safely ignore all their pronouncements.
First brush up on your grammar. You has two meanings:
"pronoun: you
1.
used to refer to the person or people that the speaker is addressing.
"are you listening?"
used to refer to the person being addressed together with other people regarded in the same class.
"you Americans"
used in exclamations to address one or more people.
"you fools"
West Indian
your.
"I didn't know that was you nickname"
2.
used to refer to any person in general.
"after a while, you get used to it""
I was using it in the second sense which includes, well, you in the first sense, of course.
My time is limited. I always assume people who criticise others have time on their hands.
I am simply interested in whether there was ancient life/civilisation on Mars. It seems unlikely perhaps but on the other hand there have been some very anomalous images from Mars. So I maintain an open mind.
For Louis re #3 of topic on Stone Walls
First, thank you for noting that ** I ** could write a program to stack stones. That would in fact be a useful program, both here on Earth, and certainly on Mars or elsewhere in the solar system.
However, I'm interested in finding out what ** you ** would be willing to invest your limited time in ...
Inviting ** me ** to assume responsibility for ** your ** idea is something you have been doing as long as I have been here.
Please consider a course of action that leads to a favorable result that does NOT require **me** to do work to advance your idea.
We have Sagan City 2018 in a modest state of development as My Hacienda, but beyond initial ideas, you have contributed nothing to advance the project. In fact, if I recall correctly, you very specifically washed your hands of it.
You have created an interesting new topic here, and it has significant potential value for future residents of Mars.
(th)
Generally been a pretty cool summer in the UK. Wouldn't want it any cooler thanks
For SpaceNut .... there was no topic containing these three words.
The purpose of this topic is to provide a place for forum members to add to knowledge about the energy imbalance currently reported for the Earth, and to contribute to creative thinking about how to address it.
The inspiration for this topic comes from a combination of statements made in other topics about various energy collection methods, and reports of NASA studies showing that in recent times, the Earth has collected more energy from the Sun than it has radiated back to space.
It should be noted that the energy budget of the Earth includes radioactivity in the core, as well as burning of fossil fuels by humans and occasionally by Nature when fires occur.
I'm hoping that creative thinking will reveal ways to radiate excess energy to space, although as I launch this new topic, I have no idea what those ideas might be.
One thing I'm pretty sure of ... whoever comes up with ways of radiating excess energy to space, and thus restoring the energy balance of the planet, will deserve whatever accolades will be forthcoming.
(th)
Did you watch the whole video?
You could be right. They could all be rocky outcrops. I'm not saying that's impossible.
But if so, then there seems far less lateral and colour continuity than we see on Earth in the vast majority of rocky outcrops on our planet.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=rocky … ej5ryA710M
The pictures from Mars show a lot more discontinuity and the appearance of debris. The scene would be consistent with something like this sort of structure having collapsed:
https://kefaloniapulse.homeinkefalonia. … f-tzannata
There is also the issue that the rocky outcrops seen from statellite images appear consistent with structures rather than random outcrops. You get this sort of effect where buildings have collapsed - lines of stones:
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Col … _342521871
Also take the stones at 07:46. The stones there might all be from a similar type of stone but the colouration of the central top stone appears much darker than the one to the left. I'm not seeing those sorts of discontinuities in the cracked rocky outcrops.
The straight edge of the "doorway" is unusual if not impossible in rocky outcrops.
I think to simply say "rocky outcrops" is not good enough in the absence of examination of such locations by human beings. I hope to live to see geologists and archeologists examine such places in person.
Louis,
It's just a rock outcropping. Sometimes rocks have odd shapes. The brain interprets what the eye sees, thus the brain sees what it wants to see.
You could probably develop computer programmes for robotic stone handlers to choose the right stone. Obviously not much good for a pressurised environment. But as a protective environment for an interior inflatable, it might work. Some of these stone structures have lasted for thousands of years on Earth.
For Louis ... your topic here seems perfect for development as a building method on Mars. Dry stone walls have been constructed on Earth for thousands of years, and many are still standing. The skills of a stone mason (if that is the right term) would seem (to me at least) well worth cultivating for applications on Mars.
While Mars certainly does provide plenty of challenges, the forces that would destroy stone walls on Earth will NOT be present on Mars.
Please considering redirecting your energies toward a productive use of this topic.
There are surely many examples of successful terrestrial architecture based upon dry stone stacking that you can research and then present here in an organized manner for the benefit of future Mars settlers who would otherwise have to search the Internet for the same material.
(th)
I would say this video by Joe White is pretty convincing about what look like dry stone walls. Certainly something that needs further examination:
I was reading yesterday that none of the US mainstream media had reported on the video of Hunter Biden speaking to a prostitute, indicating the Russians had stolen one of this laptops (the story did appear in the UK based Mail Online and it would seem to be fully verified). Since we know Hunter gives daddy 10% on his deals, this is a clear security risk, but no one in the US mainstream media will touch the story just as they covered up during the election campaign. No way could this item be described as unnewsworthy, so what have here is de facto censorship - a sign of a totalitarian mindset.
Well if every employee (average about 650 employees per plant) used 1 litre of petrol to get to and from work each day, that would be 15 million litres of petrol during the lifetime of the plant. On top of that, they've got to be fed and watered...toilets have to be operational....the canteen has to be lit...so on and so forth. This is all resource usage that isn't happening with solar power.
You're not supplying any citations for your claims. Do you have any?
I of course don't think in the future we will be using all that steel but I would be interested to see where your figures are coming from.
louis wrote:Until you give a figure for how much material goes into a nuclear power station on a yearly basis, I really can't take your figures seriously.
I would not be at all surprised if the figure was something like 1000 tons per annum (maybe 30,000 tons over the lifetime of the plant), and that's without considering the material consumption of the individual workers and the gasoline required to get them to work in their cars (far more than for PV panel maintenance).
To do what a single 1GWe nuclear powerplant does in a 60 year life, solar power facilities would consume an extra 4 million tonnes of steel. Somehow I don't think the dinner and donuts served in the powerplant cafeteria or the petrol used to drive to work are going to make up the difference. Are you really so deluded that you honestly believe that to be the case?
By the way, the raw material requirements presented in the link I referenced were per TWh, not per unit of installed capacity. Have a think about what that means. I am astounded by the lengths you go to to avoid acknowledgement of reality.
I'm not surprised. I am pretty sure they will have something pretty innovative to offer for noise suppression.
Musk commented in segment 2 that they are looking into a water deluge system for sound suppression.
Not even North Dakota?
He's very clear that launching from the oil rigs is a backup plan and that SpaceX's first order of business is a successful orbital launch and reentry with Starship. It's always cheaper / easier to launch from onshore than offshore. That's pretty much a given. If there's no other option, or if the payload performance demands an offshore launch from an equatorial location, then you switch to offshore launches. If the rocket is big enough, and Starship Super Heavy is very nearly there, then it'll have to be launched offshore as well, because no onshore launch location in North America is far enough away from population centers to receive FAA / EPA approval. That's why Nova could not be launched from KSC, thus NASA went with Saturn V for their first lunar program.
Felix was a bit late to the feast (personal reasons it seems) but as always he has interesting points to make:
We could easily colonise the solar system in a similar way to how the UK colonised Canada and Australia in the 19th century but there was very little contact between Canada and Australia. Starships would be the connectors between the staging posts of colonisation. I can't imagine there would be a huge community of humans on Pluto but there could be the equivalent of an Antarctic science research station. Mars obviously could be a blooming civilisation. Maybe some of the moons of Jupiter or Saturn but aren't the G forces on the moons pretty spectacular?
If we succeed in developing high thrust, high exhaust velocity, fusion micro-explosion powered rockets, then we could realistically colonise every planet and moon in the solar system within a couple of centuries. Assuming that can be made to happen, then I think that our future would probably look a lot more like the vision presented by The Expanse, rather than Star Trek.
In The Expanse, set in the 23rd century, mankind has colonised the solar system, but not yet the stars. Mars has been heavily colonised and has a population of billions. The asteroid belt provides the material resources needed by heavily populated Earth and Mars. Belters resent 'Inners' for their imperialist behaviour. Earth and Mars are both superpowers, vying for control of the solar system.
Generally, The Expanse features a lot of technological advancement compared to today, but lacks the fantastic technologies of Star Trek. Ships are bound by the laws of physics. Fusion drives can accelerate at many times Earth gravity, with high-ISP. There are no inertial dampers, meaning that ship acceleration is ultimately limited by what human crews can tolerate. On more than one occasion in the series, crew members died from strokes under high-g burns. But it still takes weeks or months to travel between the planets. Space battles take place slowly, with ship firing fusion driven nuclear weapons at each other over distances of thousands of km. Short range point defence canons are projectile based, as are all small arms. Rail guns, firing iron projectiles at tens of km/s are important secondary armaments for capital ships. There are no warp drives, no phasers, no shields, no transporters. And no faster than light communication. Leaders on Earth and Mars, face delays in learning the outcome of battles. Artificial gravity is produced either by rotation or thrust. In the absence of either, crews wear magnetic shoes allowing them to walk on steel decks.
The only really fantastic technologies occur later in the series, with the opening of the (wormhole) ring gates, which allow humanity to colonise other star systems. Protomolecule tech is fanciful, but not infeasible. The faster than light communications allowed by proto-molecule tech is on the edge of possibility based on what we know now, with most of what we do know suggesting that it is impossible.
China directly manufactures 80% of solar modules produced in the world and about 80% of polysilicon. Some 45% of global polysilicon is made in the Uigyer region of Xingjiang, home to 20% of Chinese coal reserves and some of the cheapest electricity in the world, thanks to an electricity grid dominated by coal fired powerplants. Xinjiang is one of the heaviest coal producing provinces in China.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coal-an … ina-2016-3Electricity costs as little as $0.03/kWh and accounts for around 40% of polysilicon costs.
Xinjiang is one of the poorest regions in China, with per capita GDP of $3000/capita, so wages are cheap. Chinese solar panel manufacturers in Xinjiang also benefit from slave labour.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/business … t-xinjiangSolar panel costs have fallen 90% over the past decade, as China has come to dominate global production. But this was accomplished through government subsidy, cheap coal based electricity and forced labour.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshe … 35ac4c71ecAbout 5 tonnes of polysilicon is needed to produce 1MWe-peak of solar modules.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polycrystalline_siliconIt takes 190MWh of electric energy to produce 1 tonne of polysilicon. Under UK conditions, it would take around 1.2 years for a 20% efficient polycrystalline solar panel to generate the electricity needed to pay for its polysilicon.
https://wsimag.com/science-and-technolo … re-silicon
Fuel may account for 40% of polysilicon but not PV panels. My estimate of 15% is looking good and maybe 4 percentage points of the 15% would come from green energy, so the fossil fuel part would account for 11% of the cost of PV panels. I think far more important will be cheap labour costs (or slave labour) and state capitalism at work supporting Chinese industry in conquering another key market.
If there is a price differential currently of 20% between US and Chinese manufacture, given the costs decline by 90% in a decade, that really only amounts to something like a 2 to 3 year difference because US costs are still going down at a similar rate to Chinese costs. If all production was switched to the USA it would be like saying "Damn - we can only do now what we could do in 2018"...yes it would put a slight brake on development but that is all.
Pay back period in terms of energy for PV panels is given as between 2 and 3 years by most serious analysts now I believe.
Using thin film solar cells is a way of reducing the quantity of silicon needed to manufacture solar powerplants. Unfortunately, polysilicon is the thin end of the stick. The US Department of Energy provides a summary of the quantity of materials needed to manufacture a TWh of electric power from a number of different energy sources.
https://www.energy.gov/quadrennial-tech … eview-2015For PV, I will summarise the largest components: 350t concrete, 3700t cement; 850t copper; 2700t glass; 7900t steel; 680t aluminium.
Compare this to the embodied materials of 1TWh of electricity from a pressurised water nuclear power plant: 760t concrete (138t cement); 3t copper; 0t glass; 160t steel; 0t aluminium. Per TWh, a solar PV powerplant will consume 49 times as much steel; 26 times as much cement, 283 times as much copper and at least 680 times as much aluminium.
Until you give a figure for how much material goes into a nuclear power station on a yearly basis, I really can't take your figures seriously.
I would not be at all surprised if the figure was something like 1000 tons per annum (maybe 30,000 tons over the lifetime of the plant), and that's without considering the material consumption of the individual workers and the gasoline required to get them to work in their cars (far more than for PV panel maintenance).
Nor is this the end of the solar materials budget. When energy losses in storage are taken into account along with the embodied energy and materials of the storage medium, these materials costs are magnified. Only a portion of these materials will be recycled. Describing Solar PV as 'Green' is certainly debatable. It may be Green in a political ideological sense, but nothing about this technology is environmentally friendly. The Liberal media and other creatures of the far left, would have us believe that this technology is destined to replace fossil fuels as principal energy source for Planet Earth. The irony is that solar PV is more dependent on fossils fuels for its manufacture than any other energy source.
About 90% of PV panels are currently recyclable and they are working on the remainder.
It has reached a temporary nadir in its power generation costs due to a confluence of factors:
(1) Relatively low commodity costs (at least until recently), largely thanks to Chinese coal based energy and the enormous quantities of steel, glass, aluminium and cement that it allows them to produce. The Chinese produce more of each of these than the entire rest of the world. This is fortuitous, considering how much of each of these commodities are needed to produce each TWh of solar electricity.
(2) Very cheap, coal based electricity in the regions where PV is produced. Xinjiang contains 20% of Chinese coal reserves and its electricity supply is dominated by coal. The result, is some of the cheapest electricity in the world. Labour costs are very low in this part of China and there is a substantial amount of slave labour. This renders coal production very cheap. But Xinjiang is too far from coastal China for this coal to be cost effectively transported to their industrial heartland. In a psychopathic kind of way, Solar PV makes a certain amount of sense for the CCP. It allows them to convert distant coal reserves, which lie thousands of miles from their coastal population centres, into an energy dense product, with the aid of very cheap (often slave) labour.
(3) Low labour costs. Xinjiang has some of the lowest labour rates in China, with a substantial portion of forced labour. China has built PV module factories here and in other low wage countries. The fragility of PV wafers makes module assembly a very labour intensive activity.
(4) The CCP subsidised PV production with very low interest rate loans. This allowed this very capital intensive industry to produce products very cheaply, far more cheaply than anywhere in the West. This led to allegations of dumping.
(5) Enormous scale economies in the Chinese market brought down costs even further.
(6) Very low interest rates and bond yields in Western countries since 2009, have provided very favourable conditions for a capital intensive industry, with otherwise low operating costs.
(7) Liberalisation of electricity markets and rules favouring renewable energy, allow renewable electricity to be put on electricity grids as soon as it is generated. Other producers, including coal and nuclear, lost market share and were increasingly pushed into the role of backup powerplants. They were not compensated for lost market share.
(8) Heavy subsidy in Western economies pays for a large part of capital costs.
These factors combine to reduce the breakeven price of a kWh of solar PV electricity to a level that now appears competitive with new fossil and nuclear power. With a confluence of favourable conditions like this, it isn't surprising that solar PV appears (temporarily) extremely cheap. One might wonder why its price is indeed not zero? Idealists, all too happy to look a gift horse in the mouth, would have us believe that the current situation heralds a new age of industrial economy powered by sunlight.
A more sober look at the facts would lead one to conclude that a combination of cheap Chinese coal, low cost (and slave) labour, low interest rate loans (on both the producer and consumer side), subsidy and political favouritism; have all combined to give rise to a situation that is extremely precarious and unlikely to continue indefinitely. In fact, in 2021, PV module cost has already increased about 20% y-o-y. Chinese coal production has plateaued for 8 years and is likely very close to its historic peak. Low interest rate money is an unstable situation that has resulted in massive debt escalation and loss of returns on capital. A significant increase in inflation or loss of confidence in fiat currencies, could result in rising interest rates in the future. Subsidies are being dropped all over the world, as they cease to be affordable.
At a time when surplus energy from fossil fuels is rapidly declining, the world cannot afford idealistic energy sources than provide poor surplus energy yield. We need energy sources that can deliver what fossil fuels used to provide but no longer can. That means energy sources with high power density, capable of repaying an initial energy investment dozens or hundreds of times over in their lifetime. The more rapidly we can affect that transition, the more wealth our children will be left with and the better our chances of getting a foothold within the solar system. Such achievements are inherently energy intensive and require the mastery of nuclear energy, both at home supporting industry and for propulsion and base power supply. From this point of view, the present political obsession with low power density (Green) ambient energy is both pointless and dangerous; a diversion into a dead end. It is especially dangerous at a time when surplus energy from fossil fuels is declining fast. Such mistakes could easily be fatal for industrial society at this point. As surplus energy declines, it becomes more and more difficult to afford investments that mitigate decline. It is time to drop foolish, idealistic fantasies and invest our efforts into the high power density nuclear energy sources that are needed to allow humanity to escape its cradle and colonise the solar system.
I am sure we can argue over the details but "Levelised Cost" means without subsidies. And Levelised Cost shows PV power coming in with some astonishingly low prices. Yes, even then there can be hidden subsidies at work but equally it is true that fossil fuel and nuclear industries have enjoyed hidden subsidies (e.g. paying for the hospitalisation costs of workers affected by coal dust diseases, state support for building ports that can handle fossil fuels or paying for economic disruption caused by nuclear power accidents).
I have never supported "idealistic" energy. I support energy that makes sense economically. But to analyse that you need also to look at how an industry impacts on your domestic economy. The green energy economy does deliver good quality, well paid jobs for your domestic market. Those people are paying taxes. It's a virtuous circle.
In the UK we have currently just flushed £400 billion down the toilet to fund the most ridiculous pandemic response package ever devised.
Had we decided to invest one tenth of that sum as a community in green energy and energy storage people we would be experiencing an economic boom and cheap electricity. I look upon it as very similar to our decision to build a motorway network back in the 1960s through taxation. It was very costly at the time but it brought immense benefits to our domestic economy. Doing it through taxation makes a lot of sense because you avoid the add on cost of interest payments.
As it is the benefits of the green energy revolution will be a little delayed as we wait for them to make commercial sense to utility companies.
Yep, pretty pathetic of Bezos to suggesting refuelling is going to be a major issue. Of course, it's a new development but it's not something at the edge of physics...it's pretty standard stuff - pumps and the like. I'm sure Space X will already have done a lot of design work on that. Once they have that perfected, a mishap is unlikely and if it happened, you just send up another Starship tanker within 3 hours.
This is the only issue for use of starship to over come and that is the refueling operation
https://www.blueorigin.com/assets/blue- … hic-2x.jpg
Louis,
The Chinese manufacture about 90% of the world's solar panels. The Chinese don't use existing solar panels to make new solar panels. They use coal and gas, and lots of it. That's also how nearly everyone else does it as well. I'm sure you'll immediately dig up an exception, but the exception doesn't appreciably alter the general applicability of the rule.
After the 2008 bust, interest rates on capital were practically zero, because the only alternative was a depression much worse than the Great Depression, but even if interest rates stay near zero for the rest of our lifetimes, sooner or later the Chinese will probably want a return on the debt they're purchasing. If they can't get it from US Dollars or British Pounds or Euros, then they might simply decide to stop accepting something with no tangible value to them. Having more coupons (fiat currency) to buy things in the store only works when the store has something to sell that you actually want to buy.
I don't doubt that the Chinese have probably support their industries to corner the market in PV panels. China is a kind of state capitalist entity. The USA and other countries have let them do this. It's not my responsiblity and it doesn't really reflect on green energy itself.
Currently, when last I looked, there was about a 20% price differential between US manufactured solar and Chinese products. I doubt it's going to get any wider. Further robotisation and further wage rises in China are going to narrow the differential.
I wonder how much the price of fuel is reflected in the price of a PV panel? My guess would be not much more than 15%.
Are you claiming Chinese PV manufacturers are using coal and gas direct as power in their factories?
Looks a little unlikely to me. If they are using electricity then about 28% of China's electricity comes from green energy sources.
Your idea of "all serious business analysts" seems to be limited to Lazard & Associates, but even there your own assertions that prices will continue to fall disagrees significantly with Lazard's own analysis. They show prices bottoming out or even rising slightly on photovoltaics and batteries.
Deloitte, FT, Goldman Sachs, BP are all predicting a bright future for green energy:
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/e … tlook.html
https://www.ft.com/content/a37d0ddf-8fb … bde29fc510
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen … y-in-2021/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bp-bets-fu … 1601402304
The "huge declines in battery prices" still put them well above and beyond the capital cost of a nuclear power plant. Lead-acid has been cheaper than Lithium-ion since before Lithium-ion ever existed. Several decades after Lithium-ion has been in the market, Lead-acid is still cheaper. This begs the question of why power companies haven't been busily buying up every Lead-acid battery in existence. If the only metric that mattered was the cost of the battery, then all the grid operators should have purchased Lead-acid batteries for their grids to supplement their wind and solar investments, but they don't do that, because those "cheaper batteries" are still not nearly cheap enough at the scale they require.
Whether or not the challenges associated with landing on Mars proves to be a significant impediment remains to be seen. Immediately after claiming you're using evidence or general understanding of science, you assert something is not a problem as an article of faith, despite lacking a single rough field landing as a data point that it's not so difficult to accomplish (with the design that SpaceX has opted to use, which thus far has only landed on steel-reinforced concrete pads and steel ship decks). Even Elon Musk says it's not easy to do.
If indeed there's some miraculous new battery technology that will succeed where no existing battery technology has, which was by definition cheaper than technology that didn't exist, then I've yet to see it. I hope you're correct, but battery tech companies are a dime a dozen. An enormous amount of money is thrown at them, but 99% of them never produce anything that makes its way into a commercial product. The ones that do, don't typically bet their existence on something that nobody else could make work well enough to warrant mass-manufacture.
If this new Iron-Air battery can't load-follow, then the prospective power company looking to purchase needs a Lead-acid or Lithium-ion battery that can load-follow, plus an Iron-Air battery, plus wind turbines or photovoltaics with significant over-capacity, or a gas turbine as a backup if all of that proves too expensive in actual practice.
The IA batteries are likely only going to be discharging the equivalent of perhaps 10% of electricity generated in any one year and as Form themselves say, are not designed for load following. Lithium batteries are already been used to smooth out electricity supply. Combined with hydro, pumped storage, and other green energy sources (e.g. energy from waste and bio fuels) they are getting close to dealing with daily troughs in green energy supply. Probably combined with green hydrogen at utility level, that will be the answer.
As for the Mars landing I really do think that is a relatively trivial issue. We will see the Starship land on rockfields on Earth and we will see it's not big deal.