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#376 Re: Human missions » NASA Exploration Roadmaps » 2007-04-24 12:14:59

The next administration will likely gut NASA to pay for the Iraq war, but there are a number of scenarios where rivalry with Russia, China and/or India could see spending at historic levels in the twentyteens (Russia-China vs. US-India being most likely, although Russia may try to play both sides of the fence if Putin has himself declared dictator for life).

#377 Re: Human missions » NASA Exploration Roadmaps » 2007-04-23 21:47:40

Very fun.  I've never seen one document so comprehensive.  Good to see planning for automated manufacture of a solar cell power grid.

More from the same site ...

Lunar mining (including current multi-million dollar projects for resource processing equipment) ...
http://www.sop.usra.edu/rasc-al/forum_2 … essing.pdf

Lunar roads and habs and launch pad construction ...
http://www.sop.usra.edu/rasc-al/forum_2 … uction.pdf

#378 Re: Not So Free Chat » Hypothetical - Secession of Conservative States » 2007-04-20 23:21:03

If Hillary attempts to cease dictatorial power

That is quite a Freudian slip there Tom  big_smile

Don't be afraid Tom, I'm sure Hillary will be merciful.  I've heard her aides are putting together a program whereby traitors to their country can get their sentence commuted to a type of community service as long as they agree to castration and a course of reeducation through labor.  Perhaps you'll be able to achieve so prestigious a position as domestic servant to a party member!  You probably shouldn't set your aims so high though.  Society is not unwisely reluctant to trust those who have tried to divide and betray them.  Regardless, seven years in a concrete box in Guantanamo should make your heart fairly bloom with compassion.  They say a liberal is just a conservative who has been arrested  big_smile

#379 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » The Clean-Slate City-State » 2007-04-20 20:36:14

I was lucky enough to visit that area about this time last year.  Very remote. Very beautiful.

apr22152nd7.jpg

#380 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Quantum Theory gets even weirder » 2007-04-19 23:00:37

So you read about the EPR paradox

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_paradox

and quantum teleportation and think "okay, I can live with non-local reality" but apparently, that's not good enough ...

Quantum physics gets unreal
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v4 … 19-06.html

#381 Re: Terraformation » Floating Venusian cities or Venus vs Mars vs Titan revisited » 2007-04-19 13:44:21

I've never heard of aerovator before though.

1000 km ribbon spun from a central hub.  The ribbon has an aerodynamic shape that provides lift.  The ribbon ramps steeply from the hub.  Most of the ribbon skims the "top" of the atmosphere keeping the whole structure aloft.  You launch things from the hub.  May need a rocket boost up the first section, but eventually the payload is flung from the end of the rotating ribbon into orbit. 

Why is it interesting?  Preliminary analysis says it can be built with known materials.  No CNTs required.  CMEdwards says here ...

http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic … 6&start=21

... that it can't be deployed, but compared to the space elevator it is a stroll in the park.

Unfortunately the wikipedia article was deleted as original research, but you can find the text on one of the clones ...

http://en.allexperts.com/e/a/ae/aerovator.htm

Ongoing discussion here ...

http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/spac … =aerovator

#382 Re: Not So Free Chat » Hypothetical - Secession of Conservative States » 2007-04-19 12:15:19

Luckily, the Patriot Act will make it easy for us to round up people like Tom after the 2008 elections.

Hillary's angels gonna be knockin' on your door Tom.  Where ya gonna run to?

#383 Re: Terraformation » Floating Venusian cities or Venus vs Mars vs Titan revisited » 2007-04-17 12:04:58

With Venus's thicker atmosphere and slightly lower gravity then earth, scram jets and ram jets will work at higher altitudes then on earth.

Unfortunately Venus' atmosphere is oxygen-poor, so being airbreathing wouldn't give you much of an advantage.  Maybe some other type of low cost to low orbit infrastructure though - perhaps airship to orbit or aerovator.

#384 Re: Terraformation » Can a small body be given an atmosphere? » 2007-04-16 02:14:47

I thought Korov was saying that basically any small body could be given an atmosphere with this technique.

Maybe.  Depends on how high a strong magnetosphere can raise the effective escape velocity.

BTW, check out this shockwave atmospheric retention simulator ...

http://astro.unl.edu/naap/atmosphere/an … ulator.swf

You lose all your hydrogen in nothing flat  smile

#385 Re: Terraformation » Can a small body be given an atmosphere? » 2007-04-16 01:59:11

The magnetosphere will definitely leak, the relevant question is: how much?  The name of the game is reducing the ratio of escape velocity to average particle speed in the upper atmosphere as explained here ...

http://cseligman.com/text/planets/retention.htm

and in particular in the section titled ...

Summary of How Particle Velocities Compare to Escape Velocity

A magnetosphere protects the upper atmosphere from being heated by the solar wind, and consistently modifies the particle orbits back towards the inside of the sphere (effectively raising escape velocity).  It doesn't have to keep every particle, just reduce the ratio of particles that reach escape velocity.

Compare Earth (magnetosphere), Mars (minimal), Venus (minimal).  Earth has most (but not all) of its atmosphere from 1 billion years ago, whereas Mars has lost most of its atmosphere, and Venus has lost most of its lighter elements.

#386 Re: Terraformation » Can a small body be given an atmosphere? » 2007-04-15 23:49:13

The outer layers of the atmosphere would have to be an ionosphere and then plasmasphere.  Happily this seems to be the natural order of things in the presence of the Sun's ionizing radiation.  Outer solar system atmospheres may need an ionizing radiation boost.

#387 Re: Terraformation » Floating Venusian cities or Venus vs Mars vs Titan revisited » 2007-04-15 23:00:08

I am not sure what you are mean when you say "the Mars launch is still behind for the NVA".  Are you suggesting we should go after NVA from Mars?

No, I was saying that there are a set of asteroids (the NVAs) that you wouldn't go after from Mars, and then went on to speculate on the scenarios under which that set of asteroids might be more economically valuable (for at least some period of time) than the corresponding set of asteroids that you wouldn't go after from Venus (the NMAs).  If such a scenario arose and you were a asteroid mining entrepreneur, you might build an asteroid mining support base at Venus (or L5) instead of Mars. 

If Venus is forced to compete with Mars by launching big dumb boosters from the cloud tops then it is going to have a hard time overcoming the delta-v penalty.   However, if asteroid miner manufacture takes place in low Venusian orbit directed telerobotically from the luxurious diamond cities below, then the penalty drops dramatically, especially if delta-v achieved with solar or magnetic sails is considered free delta-v.

#388 Re: Terraformation » Floating Venusian cities or Venus vs Mars vs Titan revisited » 2007-04-15 22:33:29

Why wait to start a design process we do have a poor representation in orbit to make sure that we do it right on the first try. Yes I speak of the ISS which needs constant resupply, reboosting of orbit and while it has an open loop LSS it has no means to pull in the atmosphere to allow for things to change.

It's like baby pictures of our first L5 colony.  Awww, cute little ISS  big_smile

#389 Re: Pictures of Mars » Real images of Mars » 2007-04-15 13:09:56

Is AMAZING! Is REAL?

Real as it gets until we can see it with our own eyes.

#390 Re: Terraformation » How Quickly Does Mars Lose Air? » 2007-04-15 09:39:18

Why superconducting cable for planetary scale magfield?

The nice thing about a superconducting structure though, is that rather than just dissipating the terrawatts (i^2*R -> heat, light, etc), it can store them - act like a planetary power reservoir while providing the magnetic field.  I think that's meaningful, even at terraforming scales.

Superconductors aren't that much extra effort outside the cryogenics.  One of the interesting aspects of the orbiting asteroid-electromagnet idea is that you could organize free cryogenics pretty easily, especially since you want to suck up all the sunlight in the locality anyway to power-up the device.  I think you'd want the orbit to be as regular as possible though (geostationary?) to minimize interference with ordinary electronics.

#391 Re: Martian Chronicles » Mars buildings at sunset » 2007-04-13 21:37:12

The first track, which i share free with you is "Mars Buildings at Sunset"

Thanks Santi.

It reminded me of this video for some reason ...

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid … 7814239014

#392 Re: Life on Mars » The "White Mars" theory - CO2 not water » 2007-04-13 03:02:08

You'd also have to explain away this MARSIS result  ...

Plaut et al: South pole has enough water to cover planet
http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=5287

#393 Re: Terraformation » How Quickly Does Mars Lose Air? » 2007-04-13 02:49:05

Awesome!  Wow, I hope that can happen.  I think he is a little too cavalier with respect to stability problems however (it seems to me to be the central problem).  Even if a rotating cord can stabilize the structure, how do you make sure your multi-million kilometer plasma cord rotates at 0.1 m/s?  Can it really be controlled reliably with some sort of driving force from one end?  But maybe you just need some sort of periodic reinforcement. 

I wonder how fast you could deploy it?  Some fraction of c?

#394 Re: Terraformation » Outer system ready power source » 2007-04-13 02:35:44

I don't think so.  Methane is really stable.  Best bet is to oxidize it.

#395 Re: Terraformation » Floating Venusian cities or Venus vs Mars vs Titan revisited » 2007-04-13 01:40:04

When you launch from Mars, you still have 4,800 m/s of delta vee to get to the MFMA and still beat the Venus launch. I think that there likely plenty of small bodies near Mars that will beat your NVA.

Yes but the Mars launch is still behind for the NVA, and you have to take into account the delta-v to get your ore/product back to Earth (presumably), so the question becomes "is the set of NVAs more economically interesting than the set of NMAs."  The set of NMAs is much larger ...

http://cfa-www.harvard.edu/iau/lists/InnerPlot2.html

... so the long term answer is probably no unless ... by chance the set of NVAs has a really good set of targets for the economic conditions on Earth, asteroid mining tech is such that I can calculate my delta-vs from Low Venus Orbit rather than Venus+50, or the manufacturing tech/economics on Venus are such that I can ignore the delta-v penalty.

Like I said above, I don’t believe that “support base for asteroid mining” would be the decision maker for location of the first extraterrestrial colony, but, supposing it is, the decision would be driven by economic valuations.  Right now people are saying PGMs, but it could be, say, volatiles for LEO refueling, or maybe the lunar surface isn’t the only place that the solar wind has deposited lots of Helium-3, or maybe some rare-earth based catalyst would change the economics of hydrogen production and there just happens to be a mountain or two of it at low delta-v from Venus.

Perhaps though, the tech/economics of traffic from Venus+50 to LVO are such that that launch segment can be considered separately – maybe a space elevator, or aerovator, or other low-cost to low-orbit technology.  Maybe asteroid ore is brought to LVO and all manufacturing is done in LVO using robots teleoperated from the diamond cities below.  Maybe it turns out that it is best to bring the entire asteroid to low planetary orbit for processing but Earth has banned such maneuvers into LEO.  Maybe the Venusian energy production advantage is such that I can spend the delta-v penalty and still be ahead.

I’ll admit though, that the delta-v penalty is hard to overcome.  It is one of the strong arguments for an asteroid mining support base at L5 (once the first couple of asteroids have been relocated to L5 to provide building materials).  The only real counterargument is that it is not possible to provide a long term stable biosphere there for large numbers of people.  Tech will eventually remove that counterargument, the question is will that happen before the first commitment to an extraterrestrial colony.

If Venus continually gets warmer as you get deeper in the ground, then any grand scheme with any technology to terra form Venus will fail.
That is a sad thought sad

Cheer up  smile  I don’t think that follows.  You do need to import hydrogen though.  I like karov’s idea of channeling the solar wind as a source of hydrogen …

http://www.newmars.com/forums/viewtopic … 1&start=20

#396 Re: Terraformation » Floating Venusian cities or Venus vs Mars vs Titan revisited » 2007-04-11 22:18:44

I wonder if Venus had life at some point before it went greenhouse.
Maybe Venus still has microbial life underground at some safe depth, a pretty common place on Earth for life.

Current theory says that Venus is hot inside like Earth.  So the temperature would just get higher as you go deeper.  Water couldn't exist in liquid form to support life as we know it.

However, Venus may currently host microbes in the clouds of the 50km zone we've been discussing ...

http://www.astrobio.net/news/article311.html

The clouds of Venus apparently have a much longer lifespan than those of Earth - months instead of days.  Speaks of a nice stable atmosphere, no?

#397 Re: Terraformation » How Quickly Does Mars Lose Air? » 2007-04-11 03:05:25

karov has wonderful numbers on this stuff, but my take-away was that the lack of a large magnetosphere is a problem, but even if you create an artificial one (by building a superconductor around the equator), the low gravity will mean that a 1000 mbar Martian atmosphere will be reduced back to 10 mbar by natural processes over 100,000 years, so there has to be an ongoing program of iceteroid disassembly and injection.  However, if you can do the terraform in the first place, the maintenance program is probably not going to be a challenge.

There was also a discussion about creating a Lunar atmosphere.  The 3 sigma loss rate was closer to 100 years, but there was all sorts of interesting speculation about how you could knock that up a couple of orders of magnitude.  Quite inspiring.

#398 Re: Terraformation » Floating Venusian cities or Venus vs Mars vs Titan revisited » 2007-04-11 02:25:48

Where do you get all that matter for the balloons and basket?

My thought was from the atmosphere. You can make a lot of things from carbon.

An excellent thought!  Constrained only by CO2 cracking efficiency.

How far would these things sink anyway? The atmosphere on Venus is 90 times the density of the earth. I can’t see these ships getting blown to the ground.

Reading a bit more, it seems that some atmospheric models do predict violent but "narrow" downdrafts in the upper convection layer (60-45kms).   It may turn out that you can dodge anything dangerous, however, if these platforms are to be manned, you need to work from worst case ... if a meteor punctures the dome and the repair systems malfunction and it takes a week to get a patch in place, are there backup systems that can still provide a survivable environment?

Perhaps tethered networks of floating domes/spheres, each designed to lift, say, 200% of the dome's fully loaded weight.

Who pays for it and why?

Same answers as for Mars?  Presumably Venus is preferred if it confers some economic advantage.  Perhaps the abundant solar energy?

The advantage of being on the ground on Mars is that all the stuff you need to make air, plastics, concrete, glass, super magnets, sulfuric acid, power plants, etc. is laying about you.  In a city floating in the clouds of Venus the ores and metals are a hundred (?) km below you at god awful temperatures.  Also hydrogen for water is very rare on Venus.  I don't see any economic advantage on Venus and a number of severe disadvantages.

It’s true that Venus+50km is metal-poor, although I imagine that adequate hydrogen could be procured, at least at first, from the sulfuric acid clouds.  I could conjure scenarios that give advantage to high ambient temperature for ore processing, but there is a larger discussion here about what constitutes economic advantage in this context. 

“Who pays for it and why?” is perhaps the crucial question for all extraterrestrial activity.  My opinion: governments will perhaps sponsor a scientific outpost, but anything more will require profit.  The question then: what can possibly be profitable?  Right now it isn’t looking good for our heroes.  “A Venus/Mars support base may lower the cost of asteroid mining by 20% and thus justify itself at some unspecified time in the future” doesn’t exactly scream goldrush.

People might possibly be persuaded by lifeboat arguments (“Earth has a significant probability of rendering itself uninhabitable, we need a backup”), but I think you’ve got to look for megatrends to hook your hopes to.  In the end you’ve got to be exporting energy or complexity.  There is really very little else that you can justify shipping from the bottom of a gravity well.

So, who can concentrate tritium or antimatter more cheaply: Venus or Mars?  Lots of maybes.  Whatever water is on Mars has been bombarded by high energy radiation for an aeon, so maybe it has good tritium concentrations.  Venus has less hydrogen but maybe that’s because all the lightweight hydrogen has escaped leaving higher concentrations of the good stuff.  Maybe Venus’ hydrogen is more efficient to process.  And check out the local energy sources available: high intensity solar, easy geothermal (aerothermal? – send water down a tube in the atmosphere a couple of kilometers and it will come back boiling), and, if I tether to the surface, I can get jet stream wind generation.  Maybe I just exploit all these local energy sources to create antimatter + containment and ship it back. 

Why would you import complexity (very highly processed goods) to Earth?  Maybe there are high-payoff technologies that are too dangerous to R&D in the primary biosphere.  Maybe Drexlerian nanotech can be made to work but it is most productive in high pressure and temperature environments (although maybe it needs near vacuum and Mars wins here).  Maybe the precious temperature and pressure environment of Venus+50kms enables vast biotech-enabled aerofarms that become the true “nanotech assemblers” of the next 1000 years.

However, if you do a "Rick's Standard Terraforming" ** on Mars, then Mars will get a some of those advantages as well.

In a thousand years.  We could green the deserts, but we don’t.  If, as we hurtle towards the tech singularity, Venus has an economic edge at the right time and for a reasonable duration, then it will get colonized first.  (Personally, I wonder if NEA-fed orbitals at L5 aren’t the way to go, but I admit that we have a ways to go before we can give them the “biosphere stability rating: 1000 years” stamp).

Also if you are 0.9 gees, you will still have a higher delta vee to get to any asteroid than Mars with its 5,000 m/s escape velocity.

Actually, it turns out not.  There is a set of NEAs which have a lower delta-v to/from Venus.

Also there are a LOT more asteriods near Mars than near Venus.

Yes but no one is going to care about anything but the NEAs for 1000 years.

noosfractal:

Being mobile to boot is not necessarily a disadvantage.

Sorry about quoting like this but I get kicked to the forum list when I try to use the Quote button.  Is the kind of mobility you'd have really that good though?  Sure you're moving around, but wouldn't your course also leave you at the mercy of the Venusian weather?  Maybe I'm imaging something too massive, but a legitimate city in .9g has got to take a lot power if you decide you want move under power.  It seems like you'd need a spare power plant sitting around just in case the wind takes you somewhere you don't want to go.

You definitely require stabilization systems, the question is whether they are a show stopper compared to the benefits.  The Venetian atmosphere may be such that long-term (say 1000 year) stability is not possible at any reasonable price.  On the other hand, it may be that there are calm areas where stabilization is trivial. 

The momentum of massive structures is both a blessing and a curse – like creating artificial islands in the Earth’s oceans, smaller structures need evacuation plans for 100 year waves, larger structures with reefs can ignore them (but maybe not tsunamis).

#399 Re: Terraformation » Why magical nano-tech is a long way off » 2007-04-09 04:31:03

Rick, I think you'd be a lot less sure of your position after reading Drexler's Nanosystems ...

http://www.e-drexler.com/d/06/00/Nanosystems/toc.html

and perhaps also the rebuttal to Smalley ...

http://www.imm.org/SciAmDebate2/smalley.html

"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."
-- Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.

#400 Re: Terraformation » Floating Venusian cities or Venus vs Mars vs Titan revisited » 2007-04-09 04:06:49

Does Venus have powerful down drafts?

I believe so.  I seem to remember two main convection zones - one from the ground upto 45km, a second from 45-60km - something like that - unfortunately, you want to live in that second zone.  Also, there is this mystery of atmospheric superrotation right in the area you want to live.  No current Venusian GCM can account for it.  You probably want to understand it pretty well before building cloud cities.

A counterargument is that the Earth's ocean has convection zones as well, but you don't hear about submarines being sucked to the ocean floor by them.  Presumably it comes down to whether it is a economically solvable engineering problem.

There is another disadvantage to building floating cities on Venus: building 'ground' that will float.  Basically these floating cities will be habitats slung under balloons or dirigibles.

My understanding is that they are domes filled with breathable air which just happens to be a lifting gas in the Venusian atmosphere.  If you didn't want them to float you would have to anchor them firmly to the surface.

Where do you get all that matter for the balloons and basket?

Lowest bidder.  Surface, NEAs, atmospheric mining, etc.

Who pays for it and why?

Same answers as for Mars?  Presumably Venus is preferred if it confers some economic advantage.  Perhaps the abundant solar energy?

Lastly, all balloons leak, particularly those filled with hydrogen and helium.  (Hydrogen atoms are so small that it will leak THRU some solid metals.)  So your floating city will have a steady cost forever trying to manage flotation and ballast.

Your domes will leak on Mars as well.  Maintaining a breathable atmosphere is a cost of doing business.  Being mobile to boot is not necessarily a disadvantage.

A big advantage of Mars is it has _ground_.  (Well, ground at temperatures that won't roast us.)

A presumed advantage.  Venus+50kms has shirt-sleeve pressure, temperature, radiation shielding, .9g gravity, abundant solar energy and a smaller delta-v to most NEAs.  Variable lat/long/altitude may be a small price to pay.  (Might just be castles in the air though wink

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