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Rabbit? Did you say rabbit?
Check out the http://www.cabelas.com/cabelas/en/templ … Cobra-wear!
Sudden global warming from ANY cause (human or not) has potential to cause human extinction or very massive disruptions. The release of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methyl_hydrate]methane clathrates could unbalance a tipping point and cause runaway greenhouse conditions.
Suppose there is only a 0.5 % chance (.005) of this happening. How much is a prudent amount to spend on insurance to assure the human race is not rendered extinct.
The problem with the extreme right is that they are not saying, "this is a real potential problem, we need to invest more in research, rather they are saying its a hoax being perpetrated by America-haters" and anyone who discuses global warming is a tinfoil hat guy.
Oh pretty much big talk/bluster/etc... The Russians nor the ESA have the required money, technology, or skills for the landing and returning part of the Mars mission.
Okay, let us speculate. We spread faery dust around the planet and all politics stops. Humanity joins hand to sign kumbaya and head to the stars together.
Funding is freely and cooperatively shared with regard to humanity as a whole, without consideration of national interest. . .
(Yeah, I know, I drank a whole lot of Kool-Aid)
Okay, question:
Which is the less expensive/more capable system?
Clipper based on Soyuz R-7 + liquid upper stage or CEV based on Delta IV?
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Pease read carefully. I enjoy the image of joining hands to sign Kumbaya, at least in a non-PC sort of way.
Now we build a world class international airport and freight forwarding terminal. That will cost more than the elevator itself, by the way.
This would be an economic boom for the host country, work a deal where they build the airport and help finance part of the construction of the elevator itself...
Imagine $50,000-60,000 costs for a resort stay and a trip to orbit. major companies would be giving away trips at these costs for the PR. Scratch and win? Frequent flyer miles? Mcdondals games? Nike promotionals? Credit card purchase rewards...
You busy for the next few years?
Remember that program about flooding New Hampshire with Libertarians, or South Carolina with evangelicals?
How many space advocates can we persuade to emigrate to Kiribati?
I propose http://www.janeresture.com/tarawa/]Tarawa for the base. Anchor the cable in the lagoon.
Now we build a world class international airport and freight forwarding terminal. That will cost more than the elevator itself, by the way.
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Still, the lagoon at Tawara. . .
A Japanese financed space elevator. . .
Betio Island, the scene of a nasty fight between US Marines and the Japanese.
Hmmm. I sense a story coming on.
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Diego Garcia is 6 degrees south latitude. That might work as well. That place already has a big airport and freight forwarding infrastructure. :;):
The trouble with solid rockets, is the more segments you would add, the higher the internal pressure of the engine would be, requiring thicker fuel casings to maintain safety.
So in other words, not much of an alternative to mass-producing and uprated 5M dia model with RL-60 upper stage of the Atlas-V.
Thanks! That makes sense :;):
What if the orbiter cannot return to flight? Or fly 25 - 30 missions in the next 8 years?
I read somewhere the opinion that the reason the Russians and the ESA like the ISS so much is that it chains the US space giant, rather like the giant in Gulliver's Travels. So long as we spend billions on ISS we cannot do anything else.
clark, I agree with you more than it might seem. Yet I believe that Chirac and Putin favor ISS completion more because it keeps us busy and delays the day when space property rights become a front burner political issue.
And, I also believe Dinkin overestimates the US ability to dictate what those property rights regimes will look like. Soyuz from Kouru for example is intended to make sure the US does not have unilateral access to the solar system.
Therefore, to negotiate a multi-national treaty to actually go out there seems better than merely postponing the decisoin.
He is calling for the end of NASA, ya know.
Not necessarily.
If NASA buys ET from Michoud and SRBs from Thiokol and Transhabs from SpaceHab and puts a base on the Moon, isn't that private sector?
And won't this lunar base have NASA logos and report to NASA Mission Control? NASA running a lunar base sure seems better than spending the next five years fooling around with ISS.
ISS? Give it "as is" to an international consortium NASA does not control. Offer the RSA, ESA, Canada and Japan permission to attach modules to the new luanr base as partial compensation.
Ground shuttle orbiter immediately and let the Russians complete ISS with Proton and an Orbital Recoveries style ISS-component stabilization module. A Progress meets the ISS component and drags it to the ISS for installation.
A lone 5 segment Thiokol SRB + liquid upper stage is big enough to throw a single truss with station keeping module to 51 degrees.
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Does NASA need a monopoly to survive?
He is calling for the end of NASA, ya know.
He won't get everything he is asking for, nor should he.
But its like a nuclear reaction, we need stuff to make the reaction go faster and stuff to moderate the reaction. Right now we have far too much stuff slowing us down.
If we get too many Dinkins, then okay add moderators.
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Edit: The US government probably won't embrace this vision because governments are bureacracies (corporate entities)not peoples.
Put differently, which Americans will do what Dinkin calls for? Followers of Baptist preacher Jerry Falwell or Baptist preacher Jesse Jackson or others entirely? America is one nation and we will most likely (hopefully) continue to be one nation, yet are we one people?
Many of you know who I picked (fictionally) to do this.
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/170/1]Link here.
Part one is good also.
We need space property rights. We are poised for a space equity boom. This may lead to fundamental game changes in strategic priorities that make the vast power shifts of the last 100 years look like children squabbling in a play pen. The US can lead this revolution, profit from it, and embrace it. If we do, we can extend our empire into the heavens and give birth to new nations in the New New Worlds. The game has not been won. It has not even been started. But if we want an interplanetary empire, we have to start now.
If we do not, we may be chastised by some wag Martian Defense Secretary 150 years from now as part of Old Earth. Maybe China will take up the torch. Maybe the Moses that will lead us to the planets will be Indian. The worst outcome would be that maybe no one will. Maybe we will never become an interstellar civilization and die out like the dinosaurs. If you want to curl up into fetal position and ignore the next wave of development and colonization, you will be forgotten just as all of Queen Isabella’s predecessors and contemporaries were.
Reach for species immortality, Mr. President. Breathe life into the heavens and spawn a new nation that will one day take our place as the most powerful just as leadership passed from Great Britain to the United States. Let your name be remembered forever.
Go, Sam, go!
Just let it burn in the atmosphere. Skylab and MIR told the scientists everything they need to know about long-term human presence in space and zero gravity.
I'm sorry but what the hell is going to come out of ISS that is not already known? How ants multiply in zero gravity?
OKay, thats one choice. :;):
Yet Bush & O'Keefe seem determined to finish it. So why not figure out the cheapest way to accomplish that task?
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtm … 59]Digital "Brownshirts"?
Go! Al, Go!
In an hour-long address punctuated by polite laughter and applause, Gore also accused the Bush administration of working closely "with a network of 'rapid response' digital Brown Shirts who work to pressure reporters and their editors for 'undermining support for our troops."'
We are in a war and the enemy is the radical strain of Wahabi Islam.
Those guys HATED Saddam about as much as they hate us, maybe more so because we are merely infidels and Saddam is an apostate Muslim who only embraced Islam after Gulf War I.
In 1941, Joe Stalin was a pretty evil dude. Stalin clearly rivals Saddam and Hitler on the evil meter. But for the US to attack Russia in 1942 would have been pretty stupid, right?
Saddam regime change enhances Wahabi/al Qaeda power, unless we create a stable, secular, prosperous Iraq.
If we fail in round #2 then round #1 was a mistake.
My concerns about the Iraq war are more related to stuff like http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5279743/]this.
Continuing to argue an al Qaeda-Saddam link merely confuses our ability to understand and confront al Qaeda. Saddam and al Qaeda may both be our enemy but that does not mean they are friends themselves.
Was Saddam a bad guy? Sure but Reagan had no problem doing business with him when Iran was the enemy. Reagan was friends with Saddam at the very moment he was gassing people.
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Cobra, I can better accept your "human rights" rationale for the war = IF = we now agree that preventing atrocities in the name of human rights will justify future uses of American military power whether by Democrats or Republicans.
Can we agree on that?
:;):
So you're going clark? Dang, that's three guys already. I want to go. We'll see what happens.
I owe clark a dinner and some soju.
As a buddy of mine once said, "Ain't never, ever, bought a friend a drink and found out I lost money on the deal."
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PS - you too, Josh.
Want shuttle derived lifters rather than an all-EELV NASA?
The Louisiana Senate race (Michoud) and some Utah Senators (Thiokol) and Florida (Canaveral employees) is where you look for that.
I'm from Louisiana. I'll have to look into Michoud.
Seems to me that the mayor of New Orleans should be very interested in whether NASA continues to buy external tanks.
Jobs.
And by extension, in an "up for grabs' Senate race if either candidate pushed for an exploration program that was based on X number of external tanks being needed by NASA after the orbiter was retired, that Senate candidate might well be able to extract a promise from "either" Presidential candidate.
Shuttle B/C as the mainstay NASA workhorse will keep jobs at Michoud for a long time to come.
Enough crying over Gore.
What's Nader and Kerry's positions on Space Exploration?
Irrelevant! :;):
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Congress is what matters. And 2008 and 2012 matter more than 2004. Bush ain't going to do anything between 2004 and 2008 other than shuttle return to flight, ISS completion and a few small prizes.
No, not necessarily irrelevant if Kerry wins. Although you do make a good case for it being irrelevant if Bush wins!
Kerry could never allow NASA to disintegrate.
The right would put his head on a platter over that issue (among others) - - its the reverse side of "only Nixon could go to China" and only "Clinton could sign welfare reform" - - a Democrat could not sign legislation to end Americans in space and survive.
So I believe NASA will have a flat budget or the current budget plus 5% (more or less) as President Bush proposes no matter who wins in November 2004.
Although moving some Star Wars money into civilian space might be more feasible under Kerry.
How do we spend that money?
Unless orbiter return to flight and ISS completion are taken off the table, NASA has very little choice about how to spend their budget.
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Want shuttle derived lifters rather than an all-EELV NASA?
The Louisiana Senate race (Michoud) and some Utah Senators (Thiokol) and Florida (Canaveral employees) is where you look for that.
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BTW, has anyone else heard of Thiokol's plan to put a CEV on top of a single SRB?
How much does one SRB cost, anyways?
Boy, that would be a ride. Could you design an escape rocket for the crew on top of the CEV?
Hippies on a mission to no where toting guns? :laugh:
I can grok it, man, I surely can grok it. Can you?
Living on Mars will be like living on a submarine, or being part of a SEAL special ops team, or perhaps in a commune.
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Could a libertarian survive after freely choosing to live in a commune?
PS - I want a libertarian reaction to http://www.dkosopedia.com/index.php/Leo_Strauss]this - - Cropsey and Strauss are as classic U of C guys as Uncle Milty (Milton Friedman).
Leo Strauss, a refugee from Nazi Germany who arrived in the United States in 1937, was trained in the history of political philosophy, and became one of the foremost conservative émigré scholars. He taught at the University of Chicago.
He was widely known for his argument that the works of Western philosophers up to Machiavelli can be read at two different levels: an exoteric level that may be quite conventional, and an esoteric level that contains potentially dangerous truths that could destablize society. The substance of esoteric level should be entrusted to a select few, while the exoteric level is suitable for the masses. This has come to be known as the hidden meaning thesis; Strauss himself called his interpretive method "the hermeneutics of reticence." Similar arguments have been made by Hakim Bey regarding Chinese writings associated with Tongs.
and this:
Holmes added, "The whole story is complicated by Strauss's idea--actually Plato's--that philosophers need to tell noble lies not only to the people at large but also to powerful politicians." In a liberal democracy it is complicated further still by the fact that consent of the governed is a basic requirement for legitimacy of any major decision. As Dennis Kucinich pointed out in 2003, shortly after the U.S. invasion of Iraq, when the debate among such politicians relies on false intelligence, whether the highest official is aware of this or not, such consent is obtained only by deception. The only alternate position is that one elects in effect a dictator with the power not only to act in accord with law, and make law, but also control the media and debate by feeding it with arbitrary and constructed stories.
and this:
"Robert Locke lists among Strauss's students or those influenced by his students: Justice Clarence Thomas; Supreme Court nominee Robert H. Bork; Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Dundes Wolfowitz; former Assistant Secretary of State Alan Keyes; former Secretary of Education William J. Bennett; Weekly Standard editor and former J. Danforth Quayle Chief of Staff William Kristol; Allan Bloom, former New York Post editorials editor John Podhoretz; and former National Endowment for the Humanities Deputy Chairman John T. Agresto."
Enough crying over Gore.
What's Nader and Kerry's positions on Space Exploration?
Irrelevant! :;):
Congress is what matters. And 2008 and 2012 matter more than 2004. Bush ain't going to do anything between 2004 and 2008 other than shuttle return to flight, ISS completion and a few small prizes.
Back on topic - when David Brooks is good he is very very good, when he is bad, he is horrid. Thoughts on this?
hen Bill Clinton was 8, he started taking himself to church. When he was 10, he publicly committed himself to Jesus. As a boy, he begged his Sunday school teacher to take him to see Billy Graham. And as anybody watching his book rollout knows, he still exudes religiosity. He gave Dan Rather a tour of his Little Rock church, and talked about praying in good times and bad.
More than any other leading Democrat, Bill Clinton understands the role religion actually plays in modern politics. He knows Americans want to be able to see their leaders' faith. A recent Pew survey showed that for every American who thinks politicians should talk less about religion, there are two Americans who believe politicians should talk more.
And Clinton seems to understand, as many Democrats do not, that a politician's faith isn't just about litmus test issues like abortion or gay marriage. Many people just want to know that their leader, like them, is in the fellowship of believers. Their president doesn't have to be a saint, but he does have to be a pilgrim. He does have to be engaged, as they are, in a personal voyage toward God.
Clinton made this sort of faith-based connection, at least until he sullied himself with the Lewinsky affair. He won the evangelical vote in 1992, and won it again in 1996. He understood that if Democrats are not seen as religious, they will be seen as secular Ivy League liberals, and they will lose.
John Kerry doesn't seem to get this. Many of the people running the Democratic Party don't get it either.
A recent Time magazine survey revealed that only 7 percent of Americans feel that Kerry is a man of strong religious faith. That's a catastrophic number. That number should be the first thing Kerry strategists think about when they wake up in the morning and it should be the last thing on their lips when they go to sleep at night. They should be doing everything they can to change that perception, because unless more people get a sense of Kerry's faith, they will feel no bond with him and they will be loath to trust him with their vote.
Yet his campaign does nothing. Kerry talks about jobs one week and the minimum wage the next, going about his wonky way, each day as secular as the last.
It's mind-boggling. Can't the Democratic strategists read the data? Religious involvement is a much, much more powerful predictor of how someone will vote than income, education, gender or any other social and demographic category save race.
Can't the Democratic strategists feel it in their bones how important this is? After all, when you go out among the Democratic rank and file, you find millions of Democrats who are just as religious as Republicans. It's mostly in the land of Democratic elites that you are likely to find yourself among religious illiterates.
But of course this is the problem. Forests have been felled so people could publish articles and books on the religious right's influence on the Republican Party. But as the Baruch College political scientists Louis Bolce and Gerald De Maio have suggested, the real political story of the past decade has been the growing size and cohesion of the secular left, and its growing influence on the Democratic Party.
According to the American Religious Identification Survey, the number of Americans with no religious affiliation has more than doubled since 1990. There is now a surging but unself-conscious power bloc within the Democratic Party.
Like the religious right in the Republican Party, the members of the secular left are interested primarily in social issues. What unites them more than anything else is a strong antipathy to pro-lifers and fundamentalists. While 75 percent of Americans feel little or no hostility to fundamentalists, people in this group are far more hostile to them than to other traditional Democratic bête noires, the rich or big business. They don't like to see their politicians meddling with religion in any way.
Just as Republicans have to appeal to religious conservatives but move beyond them, Democrats have to appeal to the secular left but also build a bridge to religious moderates. Bill Clinton did this. John Kerry hasn't. If you want to know why Kerry is still roughly even with Bush in the polls, even though Bush has had the worst year of any president since Nixon in 1973 or L.B.J. in 1968, this is one big reason.
Remove the creationists and the "Rapturists" from the voting pool and Bush loses really BIG. Really really BIG.
Just as a guess, how many "young Earth creationists" will vote for Bush, or for Kerry?
What do you win if you win at Drake's lottery?
A trip to Disney World.
And Stephen Hawking said in the next 1000 years, a 1000 years is a long time.
So basically I'm putting all me money on robotics and nothing else.
The problem is that no one is going to jump in and develop all the wonderful technology we need to fulfill a plan such as you mentioned. It's gradual, evolutionary. We almost have to go in little rockets with dry food in boxes and live in metal cans before we can go in fusion liners and live in cities built for us by self-replicating robots. Kind of a paradox, we don't have the tech to properly settle the planet, and we won't until we get there and try.
If we wait, we may lose the chance.
Exactly.
We are at one of those "hinge points" in Drake's Equation.
Z stars have planets in the "Goldilocks zone" - - -which collapses numerous variables in Drake's equation
Y% of these planets develop any life at all;
X% of those biospheres develop what we would call sentient life;
W% develop the technology to leave their home world.
V% of the W group decide -- hey guys it just ain't worth it.
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Along with avoiding extinction through environmental disaster, or the thermo-nuclear equivalent of kids playing with matches, finding a reason to become a multi-planet species is one of the variable that determines which species win and lose at Drake's Lottery.
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Lovers of sausage, law and Mars colonies should never look behind the curtain as the object of their adoration is being made.
“I don’t think the human race will survive the next thousand years unless we spread into space.”
Physicist Stephen Hawking speaking to Britain’s Daily Telegraph Newspaper as reported by Reuters on October 15, 2001.
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The world probably will not end anytime soon.
Yet if we expand into space, our species might well become extiction-proof.
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I agree that whoever settles space first is NOT assured to shape future human culture as it spreads across the solar sytem.
But you cannot win if you don't play.
The 1000 year plan is ok. But now going somewhere more then orbit with what we have is like crossing the ocean on a raft.
Not saying its impossible, as is crossing the ocean on a raft is possible and proven. Just you know, it will be a flag and footprint mission. I'm not interested in those. Its great but I can think better ways of spending that money.
I don't think Stephen Hawking is interested in flag and footprint missions either.
As soon as someone is persueing the von Neumann machines plan, then I'm interested. I don't even follow the rover missions, nor does the apollo project interest me and the ISS can burn in the atmosphere.
I don't think we are going to expand in space as long as the government has to pay for everything.
And Stephen Hawking said in the next 1000 years, a 1000 years is a long time.
So basically I'm putting all me money on robotics and nothing else.
Ahhh. . .
Spreading into space is like a Dutch auction. Improved technology including improved robotics will continually lower the relative cost over time.
Someone will "bid first" to found a settlement. That bidder is not assured of the ability to shape the future demographics of the solar system yet they will have a head start.
And yes, it will need non-taxpayer funding since its a fantasy to think that any Terran government will be able to maintian political control over a Mars settlement.
Not with guys like Cobra itching to re-play 1776 and kick some UN fanny!