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To the Administrator and the Moderators:
We seem to have lost Louis, one of our most prolific posters and thinkers. I see from looking at some of the more recently resurrected threads that we've lost a lot of members through banning.
I didn't always agree with Louis on his favorite topic of Solar energy alone, for use on Mars, but I always tried to be civil and respectful in my responses to his seemingly endless posts on the topic. He was also without peer as a topic starter which kept this forum interesting.
There are several others who we might want to consider granting access to the forum again on a probationary status?
Just thinking out loud, so to speak...
"And no, I quite agree that the NASA of today is NOT the NASA that sent Apollo to the moon."
I agree with that statement, as does Buzz Aldrin.
NASA still hasn't adequately addressed the issues of Solar Flare radiation, nor have they made any efforts to include artificial gravity through centripetal acceleration (incorporation of tethers). They are overlooking several of the salient issues remaining--as is Elon. But Elon is a fast learner, and once he sees the problem, he's a fixer and a doer. NASA is mired in bureaucracy and stodgy mindsets.
"Re: Grypd's point about power sources. He's right. Several of us have made the same argument. You use nuclear for your 24/7 base load, and you use solar for daytime surge need over base load. Very little storage is needed that way. You oversize your 24/7 base load nuclear just enough to get through the dust storms at reduced overall power demand, occasionally. It's a natural fit. Your 24/7 base load requirement is larger on Mars due to the cold and the life support requirements. It's not that comparable to the day/night cycle of power demand here. More similar to Antarctica, but even that has no power demand 24/7 for creation of oxygen or for growing food.
GW"
I am in absolute agreement with the use of Nuclear for 24/7 power requirements, and Solar as an augmenting source during maximum use times (actually 25/7 !! ). Always refer to my previous thread about Air, Shelter, Water, and Food. As much as I admire Louis for his Green outlook, it just is too risky, given the Probable conditions.
Here's a short video explaining my title...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRKPQn6pprg
SpaceX is now designing a Nuclear Reactor! Sorry, Louis.
It seems to me that many (most) of the posters to this thread haven't read Zubrin's works on the significance of radiation? In all of his books, he details cosmic radiation dosages in a quantitative manner, and this age-old "Radiation Will Kill Us All!" story keeps coming back to haunt us. A single trip to Mars will not kill anyone but slightly increase the risk of cancer later in life. We would be wise to send older astronauts who are no longer reproducing in order to prevent damage to the yet-unborn and yet-to-be conceived.
"Entering Space" by Zubrin is a great place to refresh one's optimism.
I agree with you on almost every point you raise--especially the question of why Musk took such a big step all at one jump. I could see an upper stage about 1/4 the size of the present Starship and an "explorer" design. But Musk is a gutsy individual and not afraid to risk a lot on a great concept. His ideas are "revolutionary," and not "evolutionary."
I wonder if this was the plan by Bezos--delay the funding from NASA to put SpaceX into a financial bind?
An OK video and is speculative: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSDhfggzD64
I of course object to the nonsense in the video about solar power being "useless in a dust storm" and the failure to note that if you are producing methane and oxygen, you obviously have stored power available to operate methox electricity generators (so not at all clear why you would go to the trouble of also using Kilopower units - if they ever do become available. But of course we have dealt with all these issues in great detail here.
Oldfart1939 wrote:Here's an interesting White Paper analysis of the fate of used Starships...
Louis--the only person convinced about the total dependency on Solar power here, is you. I'm not opposed to some use of Solar but initially, the use of Nuclear is imperative. We've had never ending discussions about this. Nuclear has one overriding factor in it's favor: transportability and set-up time and labor with no massive project to emplace it before getting the power required for survival of the crewed base. Your dependence on Robotics is simply not happening, because no one has even started building even the simplest ones you envision.
I applaud your enthusiasm, but it's disconnected from reality. You are arguing with professionals like GW; I myself am a Ph.D. Physical Chemist with extensive background in Thermodynamics. I don't know the backgrounds of others here but there are some additional "heavy hitters" in this group.
Here's an interesting White Paper analysis of the fate of used Starships...
If we look at which company is succeeding in building rockets that actually work--SpaceX--they are doing it to "old way." Design it--build it--test it--wreck it--rebuild it. Repeat until you no longer wreck it by testing. Computer modeling and simulations are only as good as the software writers and engineers. The real world is a tough place, and simulations are just that...
GW-
I would really like to see the Vulcan-Centaur system come to fruition, and it hinges on BO and the BE-4 engines. This is a possible replacement for the SLS in the Artemis program. It should be able to orbit the overweight Orion capsule without the fanfare surrounding the Senate Launch System.
In the long run, Starship will eclipse all the competition.
BO needs to complete the BE-4 engines for ULA, as their first step in regaining some credibility. The Vulcan-Centaur rocket system shows some signs of viability.
Federal Court ruled against BO today. Bezos lost again.
The first encounter of a Mosquito with a Messerschmitt Me 262 marked the end for the Mosquito. A wooden airframe was pulverized by the 30mm cannons of the much faster jet aircraft. The structure of the De Haviland wasn't designed for a long life span--it was an expedient design that was cheap to produce in quantities. kbd512 is correct in stating that Aluminum is much better and durable construction material.
I'm guessing that there is no such thing as a "one size fits all" Starship. We are already talking about fuel tanker configurations, fuel storage depot configurations, the Lunar Lander, deep space to Mars colonization ships, freighters, etc., etc., etc.
What we are currently seeing are test vehicles--testing the propulsion systems, structural integrity, reentry and landing, and a myriad of other requirements that must be met before a human sets foot in one of them for a flight.
I recently read a book that's biographical about Elon Musk. He had as many struggles to get where he is as anyone on this planet. It's HIS wealth, and not some petty tyrannical bureaucrat to decide how and where he spends his fortune. The man did lots of dangerous and shitty jobs while living in Canada, and through his own fantastic talent, has risen to his present wealth status.
That's why I'm as supportive as I am of his efforts at SpaceX. He's possibly off scale, in regards to his intellect.
More fanciful dreams from a company yet to reach orbit?
I will take BO more seriously after they deliver enough BE-4 engines to ULA to allow the Vulcan-Centaur to start delivering goods to orbit, but until then Sue Origin only has lawsuits.
Here's an excellent presentation by Marcus House on a method of doing an Earth Return w/o ISRU; there are lots of numbers involved and talk about Isp, electricity needed on Mars , and kinda shoots down the exclusively Solar power production using very nicely calculated information. The guy really talks fast so be prepared to watch several times ad stopping to look at the tables he presents.
If my method of extraction is used to collect ice, it will be relatively clean. I use the word relatively with caution. My system involves allowing the crude mined ice to melt in a heated environment. The water Probably dirty and possibly even a sludge, will be dewatered with a basket centrifuge that separates the solids from free flowing but still chemically impure water. Distillation is the next step in getting water pure enough for electrolysis and drinking.
I am not considering the assumption of 99% pure water ice (determined by satellite imaging!) to be correct. i am considering the "worst case scenario. I am thinking of manufacturing copious pure water for all uses, but first things first: enough to manufacture methane and Oxygen for a return trip. I don't want dead astronauts and or colonists because of bad assumptions made based on orbital imaging.
Louis-
The present project is specifically stated to provide sufficient water to produce enough Oxygen and Hydrogen for the return to Earth and also for all other uses, and extracted from ice that's contaminated by who knows what. Your assertions are also without adequate foundations. Getting water that's chemically and physically contaminated into a condition that it's pure enough for electrolysis and human consumption requires a massive amount of processing--AFTER it's been dug out in chunks from strip mining-type operations.
GW-
That's a well argued statement. There is actually commercial equipment available that could be modified to do some of these processes, but not collection of CO2. I'm focusing on the water aspect of things, and as a corollary, will expand into the enormous amount of immediately needed energy. I don't think that Robert Zubrin has given quite enough thought to the scale and complexity of the necessary process equipment, and correspondingly, the energy requirements.
If I were able to process images, I could do a block flow diagram for the entire water extraction process and the following conversion to Oxygen and the Hydrogen feedstock for the Sabatier reactor.
Louis-The scale of chemical process equipment required to process ice into usable water will astound you, as well as the quantities of starting material needed. GW gave a listing of how much water will be needed and getting a ton a day simply will not suffice. We can get Hydrogen and Oxygen from water by electrolysis, and the efficiencies are not really anywhere near quantitative. Every process has operational losses, and the efficiency is usually described by percent yield at the end. The difficult step will be getting enough CO2 to run through the Sabatier process and having hydrogen from the atmosphere.
This is a massive industrial undertaking at the scale of Starship's requirements. One Starship freighter will probably not be enough to handle a chemical processing facility in total weight and volume. A lot of this processing machinery is bulky.
Designing plants was part of what i did in industry. I designed the chemical process and with engineers, built systems that worked.
Louis, you 're thinking too small. I'm thinking of producing water for an entire colony, all in a big system, and this requires 10 20 tons per day of ice prior to processing. We've been taking about just the return fuel processing, and the scale you are talking about isn't close to what I think is needed.
In the long term, we want adequate water for drinking, sanitation and bathing, Aquaculture, Hydroponics, growing of crops. etc.