New Mars Forums

Budgets: This thread is about Peter Zeihan. He has said China's navy is short range, not able to operate in deep water or far from Chinese shores. If a conflict with China breaks out, position 2 or 3 destroyers near Singapore and blockade shipping to China. That's it. Cut off oil imports to China. Cut off food imports. Cut off agricultural inputs (fertilizer, etc). Chinese civilization will be over in 2 years.

Peter Zeihan: World Order Falling Apart: Trump, Global Chaos & the End Of Chinese Empire

World military spending 2021:
USA        801
China    [293]
India    76.6
UK        68.4
Russia    65.9
France    56.6
Germany    56.0
Saudi Arabia    [55.6]
Japan    54.1
South Korea    50.2
Italy    32.0
Australia    31.8
Canada    26.4
Iran    24.6
Israel    24.3
Spain    19.5
Brazil    19.2
Turkey    15.5
Netherlands    13.8
Poland    13.7
Taiwan    13.0
Colombia    10.2
Source: https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/fil … 2021_0.pdf

I see Brazil reduced their military spending. Who else? Any NATO allies? I chose 2021 because Russia engaged in all-out invasion in 2022. So expect everything changed after February 2022.

I agree regarding nuclear power.

However, there is no excuse for abandoning your allies. None.

During the period of peace, Bill Clinton reduced US military spending somewhat. I claim the US should have reduced military spending much much more. No, that did not require increasing military spending of other allies. Other NATO countries should have kept their military spending as it was. The US should have just simply reduced. I'm sure military contractors wouldn't have liked that, because it means reduced sales. Tough! It's not about supporting war profiteers. Now that Russia is on a rampage, now is the time to increase military and stand by your allies. But the US has proven to be chicken.

Did I put that bluntly enough? Yes, chicken. Bill Clinton signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994. Bill Clinton pressured Ukraine to surrender nuclear weapons, in exchange for guarantees that if Russia were to invade, the US would defend Ukraine. That was the deal. Yes, boots on the ground. In Ukraine. Fighting Russian soldiers directly. But you're chicken. Chicken!!! Lawyer weaselly words doesn't get you out of anything. The US failed to honour the agreement, and showed itself to be too chicken to fight Russia. Chicken!!!

Yea, Germany should have cut off Russian energy products right away. That does not get you out of anything. Germany did not sign the Budapest Memorandum. The United States did. The UK also did. France and China gave individual assurances in separate documents. But Germany didn't sign.

Military spending in 2010, in billions of US dollars (not adjusted for inflation): According to International Institute for Strategic Studies:
USA        693.6
China    111
UK        57.8
Japan    54.4
France    52
Russia    65.2
Saudi Arabia    45.2
Germany    44.1
Brazil    33.4
India    30.9
South Korea    25.1
Australia    23.6
Italy    21.9
Canada    20.2
Turkey    17.4
UAE    16.1
Spain    14.7
Israel    14
Netherlands    11.2
Colombia    10.4
Iran    10.6
Taiwan    9
--------
Total not including USA: 688.2

China, Russia and Iran are not allies of the US, all other countries on this list are. India is a strategic partner, not a formal ally. But still, explain to me why you think the US needs a military budget that large.

Source: PDA

Pink is Ukraine borders from 1919. Red is 1991.

Void: no, that is not right. Trump has said the US will not protect Europe if/when Europe is attacked by Russia. NATO was founded to protect Europe from Russia. Period. That's it's purpose. Yet Trump is not willing to do that. Europe has to protect itself, because Russia intends to go on a rampage across Europe.

Putin will never be satisfied with a portion of Ukraine. He wants to conquer all of Ukraine, wipe out the Ukrainian language and Ukrainian culture. Before the full-scale invasion of February 24, 2022, Russia force-conscripted (force-drafted) all Ukrainian males between age 18-55 who didn't have a Russian passport, and all those that did have a Russian passport but worked in a job the Russians considered not vital infrastructure. Just one one later, they increased the age range to 18-65. Any Ukrainian who refused to obey orders, who refused to fight against the Ukrainian military, were killed on the spot. These men were given at most 2 weeks training, many less than one week. The Ukrainian military were veterans at that point, fighting against Russian since 2014.

If Russia succeeds in conquering Ukraine, they will force-conscript all Ukrainian males age 18-65 who do not work in vital infrastructure, and force them to invade Russia's next target. When they invade Poland first, or the Baltic States (Lithuania/Latvia/Estonia) doesn't matter, because whichever is first, the other is next. All members of the Ukrainian military will refuse to fight for Russia, so they will all be executed. Many Ukrainian men will also refuse to fight for Russia against Ukraine's allies, so they'll be executed too. This will require death camps on the scale of Auschwitz.

Putin has said many times he intends to put the Soviet Union back together. He will invade/annex Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania/Latvia/Estonia, Finland, Belarus, Moldova, and a narrow strip of Romania between Moldova and the Carpathian mountains.

Belarus is currently an ally of Russia, but the Belarus citizens really REALLY do NOT want to be part of Russia. If Lukashenko ordered the Belarus military to invade Ukraine, then Belarus citizens would have risen up in civil war, kicked out Lukashenko. He allowed the Russian army to pass through Belarus, but that's all. Several Belarus soldiers defected to Ukraine to fight against Russia, and one entire battalion of Belarus army defected as a unit to Ukraine. Belarus railroad workers sabotaged the rail lines to prevent Russian trains carrying tanks from getting to Ukraine. If Russia tries to annex Belarus, the citizens of Belarus will fight against that with everything they have. Yes, Russia will have to conquer Belarus in war.

Finland and Poland never were part of the Soviet Union, but there were conquered/annexed by Russia under the Tzars. After the Communist revolution in 1917, many east European countries gained their independence. Soviet Russia tried to invade/conquer Poland February 1919 - March 1921. That started while World War 1 was still ongoing. Europe provided aid to Poland. Russia failed to conquer Poland, so gave up and moved their army to Ukraine. Invasion of Ukraine was 1918-1922. Soviet Russia likes to claim that Ukraine joined the Soviet Union voluntarily, but that's a lie. Russia conquered/annexed Ukraine by military force. In 1939, Soviet Russia made a deal with Nazi Germany to invade Poland. Nazis would invade from the west, Russia from the East. They divided the country. Russia took what is now Kaliningrad, and gave parts of Poland to Belarus and Ukraine.

In the winter of 1939/'40, Soviet Russia invaded Finland. They failed. They did annex 9% of the land of Finland, but that's all. When Nazi Germany saw Russia couldn't even defeat Finland on their own, they invaded the Soviet Union. Nazis didn't intend to conquer Russia itself, just east Europe (Poland, Lithuania/Latvia/Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova). The Soviet Union saw this as betrayal by their ally. That's when they switched sides.

Russia today has no intention of stopping with Europe. They will also annex all of the Caucasus: Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan. And central Asia: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan.

Putin also wants control over those countries that were not part of the Soviet Union, but were under control of the Soviet Union. Central Europe: Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, Hungary, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, and what will be left of Romania.

East Germany was under Soviet control, and was a member of the Warsaw Pact. Russia wants it back. But Germany is reunited. Taking East Germany required conquering all of Germany. That's a founding member of both the EU and NATO. Once invasion of Western Europe starts, Russia intends to continue all the way to the Straight of Gibraltar.

This means World War III. Yes, Putin wants to start World War III. He believes Russia can win, all he needs to do is break up NATO. Putin believes Russia can defeat all European countries one at a time, just not all at once.

If you think this is a European issue that doesn't affect the US, you're wrong. Russia also wants Alaska back. Once Russia has conquered/annexed all of the above, they will use resources and population of all of that to increase their strength to take on the US. They will invade and annex Alaska. Here's a billboard all over Siberia. It reads (in Russian) "Alaska is Ours".

Both France and UK have nuclear weapons. If you think they'll lie down and die without defending themselves, you're an idiot. They will use everything they have. Yes, that means nuclear war. They will not attack Russia first, but will use conventional weapons to defend any NATO country. If Russia uses a nuclear weapon, response will either be assassination of Putin, or NATO troops on Russian soil. If Russia uses a nuke on any NATO country, expect massive retaliation by France and UK. If Russia uses a nuke on France or UK, expect France and UK to deploy their entire nuclear arsenal. If either France or UK appear to be defeated by Russia, expect both to release their entire nuclear arsenal.

For Europe, this is it!!! This is what NATO is for. If Trump is going to side with Russia, refuse to defend Europe, then Europe will have to defend themselves. And the best way to prevent World War III is to ensure Russia loses in Ukraine. No compromise, no way for Russia to claim they won. Russia must suffer a humiliating defeat.

tahansen43206: January 23 you asked about Canadian leadership. Federally we have 5 political parties. The Green party has elected 1 MP in the last election. They're Green, and take environmentalism to an extreme.

The Bloc Quebecois only exists in one province, Quebec. They represent Quebec interests. They formed when the Provinical Parti Quebecois became a big deal. The PQ is separatist. They were founded in 1968, after the October Crisis when the FLQ tried to use terrorism to force separation. After the FLQ murdered a provincial Minister, the crack-down was severe. The PQ included members of the FLQ who did not participate in violent crimes. They got elected, and a referendum for separation in 1980. They earned 40% of the vote, which was significant, but not enough. They kept pushing it. An second referendum in 1995 the separatists got 49.42%. Exit polls showed only 40% actually wanted separation, but many Quebec voters thought the threat of separation could get them goodies from the federal government. When Quebecers saw the referendum results, they were shocked! They almost did WHAT!?! Quebecers have said absolutely no referendum ever again. They don't want to separate from Canada, only wants lots and lots of goodies from the federal government. The BQ was founded in 1991 as the federal arm of the party. Initially a lot of Canadians thought a separatist party should not be allowed in the federal government, but there were no rules to prohibit it, so they were allowed. Since the separatists lost the referendum in 1995, the BQ have focused on Quebec issues. They're a one province party.

The NDP is "progressive" and socialist. Elizabeth Warren and AOC would feel at home there. That party has formed provincial governments, but federally they're the perennial 3rd party. Currently they're 4th after the BQ. The NDP only have 7 seats in the House. They did exceptionally poorly in the last election, and performance of their previous leader is why.

The Liberal Party and the Conservative Party are the only parties to ever form the federal government of Canada. They have both gone through significant changes over the decades since Canada became a country in 1867. The Liberals have traditionally been centre-left, think moderate Democrat. But under Justin Trudeau, Liberals competed with the NDP for who could be more extreme left-wing. Result was voters wanted Justin gone! Polls showed Conservatives would win by a landslide; winning a majority in the House of Commons. Liberals watch the polls, they saw this, so convinced Justin to resign. Mark Carney was his replacement. Mark promised to be more fiscally responsible, cut government spending, slash the deficit, balance the budget. When Donald Trump became the centre of attention in the world, Mark Carney promised to stand up for Canada. The United States is our friend and ally, but not our nation. Canada is not a vassal state of the US. Donald Trump has tried to bully Canada, to force trade deals that are extremely biased in favour of the US. And Trump has promised to cause so much economic harm to Canada that Canada will ask to join the US. Canadians have said no way! Canada is our own country. The US is our neighbour, not our nation. Mark said if the US doesn't want Canadian goods, then we'll sell our goods elsewhere. Trump tried to strong-arm trade, but Canada just sells those goods elsewhere, undermining Trump's extortion.

Yes, Canadians are impressed with Mark Carney. He has not been perfect. His team is the same ministers as with Justin Trudeau. Canada is supposed to come out with a budget every March, but Mark Carney didn't until November. Yes, the 2025 budget was released to Parliament November 10th. The fiscal year is April 1st to March 31st, which is why it's supposed to come out in March. Canadian law works a little different: failure to ratify a budget does not shut down government. Instead government limps along with "emergency spending" at levels of the previous budget. When the budget did come out, the deficit was larger than under Justin! That was not good.

Meanwhile Pierre Poilievre is leader the Conservative Party of Canada. He was expected to be the next Prime Minister before Mark Carney entered politics. Because Canada has more than 2 political parties, 40% or more of the popular vote normally wins so many seats the party has a majority in the House of Commons. During last election, both Liberals and Conservatives had more than 40%. In the same election! This hasn't happened in a century. Liberals are trying to paint Pierre as a loser, but Conservatives are still strongly behind him. Liberals try to paint the Conservative party as "Maple MAGA", but they're not. They're really really not. They're moderate, centre-right. More moderate than Regan Republicans. If Mark Carney screws up the economy, Pierre will win the next election.

YouTube: How debates will be by 2028 (click image to play video)

YouTube: Project 2026 Is Here
Project 2025 is has already been half implemented, not in 2026 members of Trump's administration intend to complete the rest.
Long story short: invalidate the Constitution, turn the United States into a dictatorship. The United States is becoming the world's largest banana republic.

To be clear, there is absolutely no need for ICE to exist. At all. The US needs immigration officers and customs agents at the border, and airports that receive international flights. Canadian airports that have flights depart for the US have a special area for US customs and US immigration. No, the agents in Canadian airports do not have weapons: no guns, no taser, no pepper spray, etc. US customs/immigration area is after Canadian airport security scan, so passengers have already been checked for weapons. If there is an incident, US agents can call Canadian airport police; they would be just down the hall, so could run to the site in seconds.

I lived in the US as an immigrant from Canada. I could not open a bank account in the US without an American Social Security number. Without a bank account, how do I pay utility bills? How do I cash my paycheque? (Yes, that's Canadian spelling. American spelling is paycheck.) Employers must register employees with the IRS, which requires a Social Security number. When you apply for a Social Security card, they check whether you are legally allowed to work in the US. I still have my Social Security card; it has printed on the face "Not valid without INS approval". This means whenever I showed my Social Security card, I also had to show my work visa.

I never did get an American driver's license. Canadian driver's license is accepted in the US. And Canadian license plates, and vehicle insurance. There are some news reports of some state trooper giving a ticket because he thinks a Canadian license plate is not valid. That state trooper was reprimanded, the ticket was challenged and cancelled, and the story made international news. When I worked in the US, if I had stayed for more than a year, I would have had to get an American driver's license, a local state license plate and local vehicle insurance. I don't know the procedure, but to get any of that should require proof that you're legally allowed to work in the US. No driver's license unless you have legal proof that you're in the US legally.

A Mexican driver's license is also valid in the US for up to one year. Same length of time. Peter Zeihan is well known to people of this forum; he reports there are almost no immigrants from Mexico any more. Employment within Mexico has improved so the northern part of Mexico, within a couple hundred miles of the US border, there are better jobs with better pay than anything a migrant worker could get in the US. This has existed since Bill Clinton negotiated NAFTA. Migrant workers come from farther south. Driver's licenses from those countries are not valid in the US.

When I flew from Miami, and bought tickets over the phone, the airline demanded the home address that my credit card is billed to. In Canada it was illegal for an airline to ask that question. But the US airline refused to sell me a ticket unless I answered. When I gave them a Canadian address, they transferred the call to a special "international division". Since then the US has pressured Canada to change its laws to match the US.

So I'm saying the US doesn't need thugs with body armour and guns. To enforce immigration, the US only needs accountants who can review IRS tax records to look for companies that haven't registered all their employees, and check employee records to ensure all employees have a Social Security number, to check all Social Security numbers to ensure they have a valid work visa. It's all accounting, done in an office.

YouTube videos from an American lawyer.

short 1:25 Why the ICE Agent Who Killed Renee Good Can’t Claim Self-Defense

full 18:32 Unbelievable ICE Memo Just Leaked

full 12:37 The Execution of Alex Pretti Broke Me

We’ve been over this before, and you refuse to learn. Renee Good did not try to run over anyone, and no ICE officer was hit. It doesn’t matter how many times the administration lies, this is the age of smartphones, we have video from many angles so people can see for themselves what happened. She tried to drive away, clearing the area. No, ICE do not have authority to arrest anyone they feel like. Immigration officers are restricted to immigration issues, they cannot arrest anyone they feel like. Custom agents aren’t even officers, they don’t have authority of an officer. Neither have authority to shoot a citizen of the US.

Alex Pretti was just standing, recording with his smartphone. He helped a woman stand after an ICE officer pushed her to the ground. The ICE officer the pushed him back. He complied. ICE then pushed him to the ground. While he was restrained, one iICE officer noticed he had a gun in a holster. Mr Pretti’s hands were on his smartphone, no where near his weapon. After the ICE officer took the gun, other ICE officers shot him in the back 10 times. Are you arguing than any registered legal gun owner can be shot and killed in the street for no other reason than owning a gun? Again, Mr Pretti did not threaten anyone with his weapon, did not reach for it.

I believe citizens should be allowed to own a gun, should be able to defend their home. But carrying a gun in public is asking for trouble. I disagree with both open carry and concealed carry. However, the US has chosen to make it legal. Once it’s legal, you can’t shoot someone for just having a gun on their person.

ICE is harassing individuals in states that voted Democrat in the last election. This has nothing to do with immigration enforcement. In the 1930s the Nazi party hired brown shirts to physically assault anyone who disagreed with them. They even went into neighbourhoods that disagreed with Nazis and randomly beat up anyone they found, on the street, in restaurants, homes, etc. After Hitler assumed power, blackshirts hired by the government assumed that role. Blackshirts were Gestapo. ICE is Trump’s Gestapo, and they’re murdering people.

Just because you said it, does not make it reality. That's not proof, it's not data. Your claim that criminals do not report crimes? That can be said for US-born citizens as well. Most citizens are not criminals, but you fail to take into account crimes committed by US-born citizens.

This demonstrates simply that you are prejudiced. You assume all immigrants are illegal, and you assume all immigrants are criminals. You won't let reality sway your prejudice.

BTW: I have mentioned that I worked in a suburb of Richmond Virginia for 6 months in 1996, and in Miami Florida for 9 1/2 months. The Miami contract was supposed to be for 12 months, so wasn't expecting early termination. The manager who's budget paid my wage wanted to keep me, but computer department concocted an excuse to get rid of me. Staff told me they did the same with my predecessor. Anyway, stayed to the end of the month, so lived in Miami for a total of 10 months. During those periods, I was an immigrant. I had a TN work visa, and an American Social Security card, so definitely legal. In fact, Miami-Dade County had the FBI do a background check on me, granted reliability security clearance. That's the lowest level of security clearance, definitely not "secret", but was government security clearance. Again the point: I was an immigrant. Does this mean you're prejudiced against me too?