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Private companies have many reasons to expand to Mars, 1) to develop new technology and advance new ideas, 2) to gain access to material resources at a lower cost than from earth, 3) because private companies expanding into space will become as large in assets as some nations, they could make their own rules about space and they haven't signed the international treaty, also not all countries signed the treaty as well.
So, Terraformer, don't think that all private company's have the same agenda regarding Mars or any other bodies in space.
Eurolauncher,
It depends on the thought processes being planned by the government departments and agencies. When you look at the development of the Moon from 1960-2007 , because we haven't got that right yet, and it will take another 20 years to have a functioning base on the rock, It gives you a bad view of the Marsbase future.
We are not even talking about commercialization or colonization of our solar system, they are too large concepts for the minds at this space organizations and the oversight committees. Its against the other various government costed programs like health, education, defence and more.
But we need to work from the different view of colonization and then work on the tools , processes, facilities and resources for that direction, not the current tourist direction.
More resource Value from Ocean Floor = more World GDP Value thus humans could expand into space permanently at a reduced overall cost. Everytime you say we can not go permanently into space because we can not provide the reources you are wrong !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Without the resources of the moon, Mars & moons, Asteroid Belt (hundreds of objects), Saturn + 60 and more moons , Jupiter and hundreds of moons without the outer planets, then the keiper belt of thousands in objects, then to the orc cloud of millions in objects, before going out to the galaxy, I think we have enough resources to build into space, it comes to technologies and the willingness to achieve it.
Tom Kalbfus,
The development cost of the Moon with a Moonbase, would concern bean counters but that would be a loss on material resources, human research, training and competitive advantage over other countries of the world would be effected, IF bean counters got the base closed because of pure cost concerns.
The development of space in the short , medium and long term will cost billions moving into trillions and then more. The creation of new technology, research and society changes will evolve the human race on all levels. Our understanding and Social aspects will change as well.
I believe that we will build the moonbase, while we send tourist /eplorer missions to Mars for the eventual expansion of humanity onto the Martian Surface and throughout our solar system.
We need to standardize on one or two types of spacecraft for earth orbit space flight and get a number of countries to purchase vehicles to voyage into space increasing the use of space for their individual countries and the general public to see the daily or weekly use of space as the next highway for human transport.
The Orion Spaecraft would be one of the designs used and the russian design could be the other design used. The Chinese or Japanese could purchase the vehicles from either vendor reducing the duplication and costs getting into space. Then we could expand space, the Indian's might purchase CEV Orion vehicles because of the recent agreements with the US for trade including space activities.
Australia could purchase and train personnel for Orion Spacecrafts and launch them to the International Space Station without the cost of building any vehicles or launch facilities or even assembly facilities in Australia but could still be a large player in the spaceworld including going to the moon with aussienauts.
The Public wants to see that we are expanding, exploring and getting measured results for the outlay of public funds to build into space. That is why the general public has sometimes a cool response to the setbacks and loss of vehicles , people and equipment thus losing taxpayer funds. ( Down the Drain !!!!!)
GCNR and SpaceNut,
I agree the development of factories on Mars, or Moon or in orbit will come, but the movement of supplies until you can build these manufacturing facilities , including the raw materials or mining of these minerals will cost. The movement of humans will be the greatest cost in the settlement of space and mantaining their environment.
Currently the NASA Manned bugdet is limited to the current missions and numbers of humans within these missions, but the increase of people on the surface of both Moon and Mars will increase the personnel rotations and increase the volume of vessels under construction, and maintenance. So when we move permanently off the planet the costs will increase upwards to meet the matching increase in human space population.
I don't think you are looking at the cost for a planetary shift in human development. the world GDP will eventually expand into a solar system based GDP that will eventually grow into a multi=planet economy. We will find that numbers like Billions are too small and Trillions will be to small as well. ( example 1 billion tonnes of iron - valued in trillions that comes from the astroid belt not a planet or moon ) When we start to expand into this economy for the next evolution of the human society.
The value of Mars could be 100x current World GDP in resources and the ability to gror food for itself and food processing for our planetary outposts, Moon with the material resources could be worth 10 - 30x World GDP , when you value the resources for planet use of a human settlement.
We have hundreds of Planetoids, Planets, Moons in our solar systems before we look into the asteroids and other objectives in the keiper belt or Ord Cloud. The human Society could find all the material resources it requires the build a large space populated human society before even looking past our solar system. Everyone has their opinions on the speed or direction to get the human race to move into this phase of human evolution.
I can see a method to generate that wealth required to expand the human race into space permanently and bring US$50 - 100 Billion funds per year without a single government agency involvement. ( ALL Private Enterprise which is still 1/2 -1% of the current World GDP. Over the next ten years the World GDP will grow in US$20 Trillion per year or more economy ) I find that you should look for methods to get your ideas of Mars Direct off the ground, don't think that the volume of funds are too large , just scale up your solutions.
GCNRevenger,
The number of US$ 5 Trillion or more was over the project life of 50 - 100 years. ( 25 - 50 Billion per year )
Yes, Private Enterprise can build into space, but the legal framework isn't there for return of capital for public shareholders unless you are a private company. they have different reasons can be used for private company owners going into space and using the resources to do it.
I agree that the nuclear / plasma / eventually ion drive systems will decrease the overall costs moving between space bodies (either artifical or natural ) but the development of increased power systems wil be required before engine systems.
We still need to move a large volume of cargo, supplies, personnel from earth to the settlements near or far and still have the safety of the personnel in mind. The use of unmanned cargo vessels will reduce the personnel risk and increase the overall volume in resources moved to the various locations and back. ( including the movement of water from various large water sources in the solar system until the creation of large permanent water sources on the various settlements.
But planning for colonization is different to the tourist / explorer missions that NASA and other agencies are development for Moon and Mars, not the missions would be used for the expansion into space for the human society.
The First Issue in the debate of Colonization is the rules (or Regulations) to Colonize into Space. That currently falls to the International Outer Space Treaty and the National Laws based on that Treaty in each nation. (including all the major space powers)
If the nation doesn't like your idea of business in space or it could harm relationships with the International community or reputation then it won't allow you to do it, simple. They have the power under the nation's laws to do that.
Second Issue in this debate is funding, how to fund it and where long term funding comes from to build the interplanetary and local planet economies up to critical mass to be self-funding. ( Upwards of US$5 Trillion Dollars [ US$ 5,000,000,000,000 .00 ] or more )
Third Issues in the Debate the Development of the Infrastructure, training personnel, and commencement of a century long project - getting the right team of people together and also building in an succession plan for continuing the plan.
That is the simpliest list of goals for this complex and multi-facet project spanning decades to create a viable space economies spanning the solar system and moving 100's possible 1000's of human permanently off the earth into space.
cIclops,
That can not happen until we hit critical mass outside the earth , with the infrastructure, personnel, vessels, power supplies and more. We can not build into space unless the space fairing nations approve the missions and provide licenses for space objects.
If they don't want your space launching or objects in space , on the moon, or any other space body within our solar system they don't need to provide the right to do that. Under the Outer Space Treaty or Moon Treaty or Registration of Objects Treaty - all provide an Article clause that makes the "state " meaning your country responsible for government and non-government launchings and objects in our solar system. So they have the right to stop it under International Law and thus are provided under domestic law.
So, Private Enterprise would need to development there commercial space projects with approval of the "state" approving body and follow the rules / regulations set down within the license and any breach to the license / permit could find the people in breach in Jail for breach of Country and International Law.
Countries include : United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France , Japan, Germany, Australia, European Union, China, Ukraine, and more
cIclops,
There only three methods for funding colonization to Mars or build any space hardware , base, or facility - 1. Government Funding 2. Private Sector Funding including individuals or 3. a mixture of 1 and 2 .
I think we need the 3 funding arrangements to build the world outside Earth. If not, we will have issues about moving off the planet and even going to Mars for anything other than a tourist mission .
srmeaney,
I think you need to look at colonization as 100's not 1000's or even millions in the first 50 to 100 years of settlement. We need to develop the infrastructure to move larger volumes of people up to 50 per mission that is 10 x what we do now in space exploration.
Just to supply a moonbase , marsbase , earth orbiting station, a L-Point orbiting station/s and the explorer missions to other planetary bodies will require a larger number of vessels. This doesn't including controlling or collecting from mining outposts, construction facilities in orbit or planetary side or even other scientific developments.
We could develop the above on a budget of US$100 Billion per year and then expanding that with resources off-planet from the moon, mars, asteroids and other planetary bodies within our solar system. currently we are just doing explorer missions for transporting up to 6 persons to the moon and possibly to Mars in 25 years. ( manned exploration budget for NASA is under US$10 Billion per year - total budget of US$16.7 Billion Approx.)
We don't know what workforce structure is needed in a human centric interplanetary society, what skills and careers opportunities and what new products, services that could be created from the expansion into space. All these questions are needing answers before we go to the moon permanently or to mars permanently because the development of explorer / tourist missions will be the first step to colonization / settlement.
We won't get to 20 million people in space within the next 100 years or even 200 years but we will eventually get there. The major point is the development of the strategies, economic, financial, industrial and social processes are there for the expansion to occur.
right on, dicktice, I thought the ISS was Mir 2.0 , you couldn't call it skylab 2.0 or better MirLab 1.0 and the systems can't talk - one in english and the other in russian, " Me don't speak your language , hehehe"
I see you , can't see change GCNRevenger (and non-believers) , every business today needs a website for marketing their business to potential and existing clients. That's what the Internet has changed business life and in society look at the blogs, podcasts, rss feeds and more that provide real-time information to people across the world. The wired world has become as essential as the car or electricity was 80-100 years ago .
Space is the next frontier for human evolution , and what we need is a reusable sustainable platform for launching into space without effecting the environment and atomsphere to much. Its time to stop the waste within the current launch platforms. We need to construct, assembly, supply and resupply of the vehicles without a large cost being incurred like current platforms. Our designs must incorporate recycling aspects to use the spent components into other vehicles in space or planetary bodies. ( multiple uses for multiple missions in orbit or on-planet reducing the per unit cost per vehicle commissioned) This requires the development of vehicle engines, systems and maintenance programs that can be updated and / or altered depending on the use required for the component.
Variations in design should add the overall flexibility and provide benefits over the lifecycle of the vehicle, with new advances in electronics , power systems, communications and information systems, each component must be backwards compatible to reduce cost and wastage in space or surface activities.
When you look at the larger picture of how to build into space for permanent settlements for humanity and not tourist / explorer missions you work on the issues that impede the expansion of space ,not leave them in the too hard basket like you do, and hope for someone 50 - 200 years down the track to fix them, fix them now with our primative technology and then development better and better technologies when we are out there.
GCNRevenger and All other non-believers,
First , I didn't say space cities, I said space settlements / colonization that could start with a small township or outpost of 50+ personnel per location, again larger than the initial developments planned by any other space agency / organization on earth. But the development of outposts of these sizes and the need to provide continuing resources for the personnel and the expansion of these outposts would require the need for large unmanned transport / logistics fleet ( up to 10-20 vessels )
The development of the moon could come from the use in robotics that would expand a lunar outpost of 50 personnel with several hundred droids under control that could be designed in various sizes for construction or mining or other activities. Once the various transport and stations are build the lifecycle are upwards for 10-30 years for hardware you can then concentrate on the applications / mission side and increase knowledge for space.
Secondly, the development of space will require the development of a investment platform that will lead to a cost neutral environment where the income equals with the expense of past and future developments + running costs. That may take time but the changes in mining rights, property ownerships rights and providing the other related space services in space including space vessel construction, space supply services and accessories for outer space living. All products and services have costs and also have sell prices that could provide a source of income and the development of factories and space stations in earth orbit could also provide a source of income including sub-leasing space and tourism potential.
I see that the unbelievers including GCNRevenger can not see the benefits and potential benefits for space, this region is like all the other business regions that have unique features just like the Internet and now every business has expanded into that virtual world environment. The next market environment is space and the worlds within our solar system , each have unique features from different resources, climate , atomsphere, and gravity concerns, but the humanity can overcome these like they have the others and that the development of the lunar surface will provide vital services for the short, medium and long term development of space for humanity.
At least some people have future changing ideas, plans , strategies for space but not the people with small ideas with tourist missions , that are trying to win senate, or house scraps, but the development of a long term plan doesn't completely need the government (regulations and framework only) but it needs the whole society including the business, financial markets, commodity exchanges to expand out from the earth from the global market to the interplanetary market ( scale up ).
You can stay, in the slow gear, but the rest of the world will change and move forward. (example - like the tape war between the betamax and VHS , you are the betamax and we are the VHS model) We may have come second in the development stacks but we are going to kick the butt of the competition including the government agencies. !!!!!!!!! REMEMBER THOSE WORDS - TSII !!!!!!!!!!!!!
GCNRevenger,
You can make the same argument about any of the planets including Mars, but If we want to develop technologies for the long term settlement of space for the human race then we need bases , manufacturing facilities, space stations and planetary settlements on other planets than the earth.
I do listen to your negative crap, every time I read your comments, and know that, if you where in charge of NASA or any other government funded space agency, we will be nowhere in the development of space on a large scale for colonization / settlement of space. We world are not powered by men that don't want to change the world but it is powered by visionaries that want to change the society into something larger and more than the previous generations had. We have been going into space for 45 years and what do we have to show for human expansion into space :- several tourist missions to the moon , two expired space stations , one current space station, and a number of satellities. No, large orbital factories, No lunar bases, Not even a tourist / explorer to Mars or any other planet in our solar system, No development of better drive systems , or even a better power systems to increase the systems and tools in space. You are of that same ideas that have been so slow in the previous development, we won't get to landing a tourist / explorer mission on Mars until 2050+,
With the coming change in government, the development of space could be very slow and may not even stay on timeline with the issues confronting us on earth. The only way is to set a large enough goal / objective and head for it, a tourist mission to mars and lunar base is just steps on the human race expansion into space.
There are many many different paths to being a major player in space and the road taken by the Russians, Americans and Chinese might not be the same for the Indians or Europeans, but can still become a major force in the human development into space.
GCNRevenger,
I think we have two different camps of thought 1) limited budget explorer mission development and 2) Long term larger budget settlement / colonization development. Your are sounding like the First (1) Camp of thought. But we need the settlement / colonization development thinking to place the explorer / outpost missions to be placed in the areas for colonization on the Moon and Mars. Lunar economics clearly derives from the 2nd Camp of thought - Colonization / Settlement.
We need to development the required infrastructure on earth for settlement / colonization needs in our solar system that is different to the micro-mission objectives for explorer/tourist missions to these planets. Volume of personnel for space and the equipment / hardware requires are different , the housing of personnel and supply logistics are different, the vessel designs are different and construction needs are different as well.
So, I think you (GCNRevenger) are not on the topic outlined because you are thinking of explorer type missions and not settlement / colonization missions.
GCNRevenger,
The long term benefits of a functioning lunar manufacturing base could effect the total long term development of space including the colonization of Mars and the outer planets within our solar system.
using the mining facilities as a base for operating on the Moon and then expanding it into a large manufacturing base for supplying components, resources processed for space based projects will reduce the overall long term costs for human expansion into space.
Yes, it will cost alot , but If you look at the short term goals that many people are looking at, then humanity will stay doing "tourist / explorer miisions" to Mars, Jupiter's Moons and any other planet within our solar system for the next 100 years and that would be stupid!!!!!!!!!!!!!.
I want to see a progressive development of the Moon as well the explorer missions to Mars to setup multiple outposts in the medium to long term activities on the planet with the use of the Moon as a low gravity construction facility using the deep lunar craters for larger vessels construction docks. We could build next generation unmanned reusable cargo transport vessels to move and dropship cargo to the landing sites on Mars expanding the facilities within human requirements.
We need long term space environment training and living facilities to train humans for a life outside earth and on low gravity planetary bodies. Using the moon will enhance the training capabilities. Thus expand the lunar population will provide eventually a local economy and an export base for creation of a market economy across the solar system. We need to remember the creation of a country economy like america came from the development via the british colonization , then local growth ( organic growth) we need to develop the Moon and Mars using the same model from Earthlings moving to these locations and as the population grows expand to critical mass for organic growth to take place.
GCNRevenger, we need to encourage the development of the moon for the earth-moon sector for the expansion of the human race into our solar system and eventually beyond.
GCNRevenger,
Earth will have size limitations on satellites that could be designed and launched from its surface . The Moon will have a different set of sizes for sateliites due to the reduction of gravit and the limtation of drag because of no atomsphere. But the development of viable space industries including satellite manufacturing and other manufacturing processes for the expansion of space will come after the basic facilities of mining and space research come first.
The expansion of space for humanity is the lagest undertaking for humanity since the ability to communicate, and create society on this planet. The moon will provide the research that we require for extended long term on planetary missions and the effects on the human body and mind. We need to extend human interactivity with droids / robotic systems to protect the humans in hostile environments including Mars.
I don't think you see the expansion into space and the opportunities for space enterprenuers and innovators, the development of space hardware will be the next change in the space economies that will focus on launch costs and the reduction of costs or the movement of personnel into space either to orbiting stations where they commute to orbital platforms or to moon for extended stays to proceed desired hardware.
I can see you are behind the thinking GCNRevenger, even OECD had a space ecomonics project to discuss the increase in private sector space infrastructure development and start looking at the resource boom that will come from the expansion into space. They also take about the changes of space treaties and laws to foster the development of business in space and also the rights including property rights in space. So, wake-up GCNRevenger and stop being a can't person and think of being a can person from now on !!!!!!
With the display of both US and China anti-satellite weapon tests the world could only hope that it is the last demonstration of this technology or It could start the development of more anti-satellite weapons and even some offensive weapons for satellites.
The development of Moon and Mars will come down, to the resources and infrastructure paid for by the organization going into space. Even if the country like China is behind at the present in the technology , IF the country spends the equivalent in GDP to the US it will exceed the monetary value in five years ( 4% China will be equal over 12% US in physical resources), We need to get to these planetary bodies and get them processing resources in the shortest timeframe to increase the infrastructure on the US side before the Chinese Earth resources overtakes the US Earth resources in Space exploration. Don't forget about the India ambitions to space either. They want to get to the Moon and possible for Mars for the same reasons.
We could also have smaller players as well, including single enterprise or business groups that may want the resources for commercial reasons or market growth reasons. It will be an interesting century ahead for the space industry globally and the political, and economic futures for all humanity.
Well, its great to read your comments about larger scale development in our solar system. We need the development of alot of hardware ( both human and robotic) to build the critical mass required to move large numbers of humans into space on a permanent basis. Our targets should be over the next 50 years to bring up on the moon to about 300 personnel ( including mining, all sciences, and administration) it could be in a single or multiple bases from a group or single nation or nations. The Earth Orbit will have alot of government and private sector space stations providing a variety of tasks for humanity on earth.
The martian outpost would be about 30-60 peronnel again in single or multiple locations in driving distance. We could also launch deeper space vessels for mining, exploration and satellite / droid / probe deployment within our solar system, or have a mobile laboratory visiting our outer planets. ( these deep space ventures could be manned or unmanned but using a large vessel platform.)
In all these outlines the developments are small but providing the infrastructure needed to expand into space with more and more personnel. Buy the end of the century our plasma / ion propulsion will be working and bring the ability to move around our solar system efficiently to allow the expansion of humanity into space, the Martian Outpost will expand into Multiple Larger settlements upwards of 300+ personnel and start the large scale exploration of the planet. Mineral resources and water resources collected from asteroid and moon mining operations could be ferried to the necessary colonies including the lunar surface and orbiting colonies without coming from earth reducing the overall running costs of the space community. The space environment rapaidly moves to economic environment that trades with all colonies outside the earth atomsphere leaving the planet resources to concentrate on earth issues.
The sooner we, pull our heads out of the ground and start working towards the day humanity leaves the earth and can exist from the solar system resources and not earth planetary resources we will then come of age, The space community age of humanity.
P.S. It need work to commence now to get to that future outlined above or we might not see that environment until the end of the 22nd century not the 21st century.
Its NOT just weapon system or systems , but the Commercial Base behind the program , making sure that it is not compromised either. That means Space contractors, researchers, suppliers including base components and materials are protected under this policy when selling the organizations or their products are against the national interest.
Trademarks or Patents are also defended under this policy where again in the national interest. Policy outlines a broad scope of what is in the national interest and the use of market power, political power and even military power to make sure that the National Interests of US are protected and secure.
Austin -- That was screaming out in the subtext of the document !!!!!!!!!!! meaning I don't care about international agreements including free trade agreements as long as it doesn't effect our National Interests.
And don't think that enemies are the only meaning in this policy also Friends are targets in this policy, if you create problems for National Interests you could find your nation (including Britain, Australia, Canada or anyone else of the friends list ) being on the end of this policy remedies.
Tom,
I have to agree with Marsman, because the scope of the policy suggests that issue in the subtext of the document. The primary doctrine of the policy is to make sure the domainance of the US Space program remains and to make sure that the various security and commerical issues that arise from the space expansion by various countries , nations, commercial organizations throughout the world dosn't effect the US National Interests or they will take measures political, economic or military to remedy the issue/s regarding the US Space Program and the Industrial / Technoloy Base related the space program.
I have been pushing for private enterprise to develop space outside the nations of the world. If a single private organization or several private organizations working together start developing and moving into space without the consent of the US Government under this policy the would need to take measures to protect themselves against issues that could interupt the developments or projects, the same the US in this policy will be doing to them. ( Yes, they would have limited resources not like the US in many aspects but they could use other legal and media resources to develop action planning against this policy)
Remember, world egg could be on the US and could cost billions or even trillions in lost income and jobs to the US Economy with this crazy Policy. The may even breach the World trade Organization rules on Free and Open trade, That could damage the US in other market sectors not related with the US Space Program, also in the next 10 years the Indian and Chinese ecomonies will be half the worlds marketplace and the world could isolate US businesses into the world market for WTO - Issues with the limitation of commerical businesses in the space sector -- restriction of trade. I don't think they thought the issues with this policy, in particular with mega foriegn private corporations.
Work together in equal partners are better then commerical enemies in a space commercial race.
US Space Policy
This policy has a darker meaning in the various paragraphs about National Interest and National Security. They could decide who they let into space and not or impede development for space. Secondly to not sign any agreement that restricts the development of technology or industrial base for space related activities from any source.
These could spell the development of infrastructure against the open development of space.