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RobertDyck

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From: Winnipeg, Canada

Registered: 2002-08-20

Posts: 7,811

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Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Am I willing to wait 17 years between crewed launches to Mars?  Yes.  I'm not the one who is in a hurry.  Could we send humans sooner than that?  Sure, but necessary supplies and spare parts for the first crew takes priority.

Yes you are. You're the one who doesn't want the crew to use in-situ resources. That means any crew mission will require constant supplies while they're on Mars. If they only get one load of supplies every 17 years, they die. Period.

Here is the trajectory of Mars Odyssey. Launch 7 April 2001, arrive 24 October 2001. Total distance travelled is roughly the diameter of Earth's orbit. Earth's mean distance from the Sun is 149,600,000km so diameter is twice that. In miles diameter is 185,914,260. Do you really think 10 million miles will make much of a difference? If it takes 200 days to travel 185.9 million miles, then 10 million more miles will take 10.75 more days. If you want that more precise, then give me the exact distance for the trajectory.

You could do this with Mars Exploration rovers, Spirit and Opportunity. Spirit launched 10 June 2003, landed 4 January 2004. Opportunity launched 7 July 2003, landed 25 January 2004. That's 208 days and 202 days respectively; their trajectory is clearly longer than the diameter of the Earth's orbit.

Dook

Banned

From: USA

Registered: 2004-01-09

Posts: 1,409

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

RobertDyck

I don't want the crew to use in-situ resources?  The crew will absolutely use in-situ resources, CO2 to make oxygen, WAVAR to make water from the Martian atmosphere, and regolith to grow food.

Any crew will require constant supplies while they're on Mars?  Not if the mini-Moxies work, and the WAVAR unit, and the buried habitat for growing hydroponics works.  What would they need?

If they only get one load of supplies every 17 years, they die?  I never said that.  I actually said they would get a supply mission the first year and the second.  I said CREWED missions would be every 15-16 years. 

Do I think 10 million miles will make that much difference?  I'm not in a hurry for a second crew to land on Mars.  You are.  That's the difference.

RobertDyck

Moderator

From: Winnipeg, Canada

Registered: 2002-08-20

Posts: 7,811

Website

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

I don't want the crew to use in-situ resources?  The crew will absolutely use in-situ resources, CO2 to make oxygen, WAVAR to make water from the Martian atmosphere, and regolith to grow food.

And hematite concretions to make steel. And anorthite or bytownite to make aluminum. Or CO2 and water and power to make plastic. Add salt from Mars soil to make polycarbonate plastic for spacesuit helmet visors, or add nitrogen from Mars atmosphere to make nylon.

I'm not in a hurry for a second crew to land on Mars.  You are.  That's the difference.

I've been waiting for a Mars mission since Apollo 11. As of this July that's 48 years. I want it to happen before I'm dead. NASA squandered a great opportunity when President George H. W. Bush said "go to Mars". They asked for everything under the Sun, with a price tag Congress would never approve. Now we have another opportunity, the first since 1989. Trump wants a human mission to Mars within his presidency. That sets a strict limit; especially if you believe he's a one-term president. But assume for the moment that he will last two terms, that means human crew must set foot on red soil before November 2024. That's where the deadline comes from.

kbd512

Administrator

Registered: 2015-01-02

Posts: 7,431

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Coo Space bearings has bearings that have about 10 times the rolling resistance?  Okay, can they be printed?

I never said anything about printing ball bearings, but this is just another specious argument you've come up with that has no bearing on anything I ever stated.  Pun...  Use your imagination, Dook.

Their bearings would last a long time?  Cool, but they won't last forever.  What if Mars dust gets in them?

What if Mars dust gets in bearing designs that have more substantially more friction and more surfaces in contact with the ball bearings to start with?  Same problem, only worse?

Why don't we stop this round and round.  You think that it's more important for a first settlement to be able to print a rocket engine on Mars than have spare parts for life support equipment.  You can have your idea and I can have mine.

I keep restating what I actually said to counter your arguments concerning things I never said or claimed, such as any desire on my part to print an entire rocket engine.  I said that entire rocket engines have been printed and flown because that's just a fact.  There's no part in the engine that the printer can't make, no matter what you state to the contrary.  I never said nor thought that we'd actually use it that way on Mars and for damn sure never said that I wanted to open a rocket engine factory on Mars.  Those are arguments you came up with, not me.

Some of use bit drivers while the rest of the world still has 50 different screw drivers, most of which never get used.  Even if the bit driver requires changing a bit, it's no more complicated in practical terms than finding the right size screw driver and the individual bits are cheaper and lighter than individual screw drivers.

What WAVAR did I have in mind?  The zeolite panels should be fixed already inside a large microwave, no rack and pinion set up.

Apart from requiring an increase in microwave power, what would that accomplish?

The Centaur is autonomously operated?  Suuuure it is.  It can go over large rocks, do a 360, and move sideways?  Great, the next time we decide to make a base in a giant rock field that thing will be useful.  What if we put the base in a place where the vehicles don't need all that?

There are cars driving themselves on the roads here in the US of A as we speak.  There are cars that park themselves after a human presses a button, too.  We could probably dispense with the button if we wanted to.  Every year the DARPA Grand Challenge proves that robots can and do drive off-road without any human intervention at all.

There isn't someone standing over Robonaut 24/7 on ISS.  It moves about the station on its own and collects life-support related information to provide that information to the crew.  The entire experiment revolved around its ability to do that and to use handheld tools of the type humans use during EVA's for disassembly and re-assembly of spacecraft.

If you put the base somewhere flat and level, then Centaur will have a very easy time getting a fission reactor online and you can probably do all that from the comfort of the habitat module without the need for an EVA.  Robonaut has human hands, so it can probably dig a ditch and connect a power cable, too.  The rest of us could probably watch it on TV about a half hour after it actually happened.

Do I want to send food and water or batteries?  You're trying to make up a rule that is not a rule.  You have to have food, water, and batteries.  Unless you're going to use a 3D printer to make the food, water, and batteries?

You'd rather send food and water?  No, you want to send multiple 3D printers and multiple types of powder, and a robonaut.

How am I making up "a rule that is not a rule"?  I don't make any rules here.  You said you were concerned about weight and that a 3D printer was too heavy because life support was more important and the printer couldn't make this, that, or the other.  Then you came up with this, quite frankly bizarre, idea that Lead-acid batteries were somehow more reliable than Lithium-ion batteries because you saw an internet video of cell phones catching fire.  Consumers love cheap crap and unscrupulous manufacturers love to give it to them.  That said, the physical world doesn't care about what you or I think or believe, it isn't changing how it works to benefit one side of an argument versus the other, and it doesn't grant mulligans to mission planners who make poor design decisions.

I should start adding up the masses for everything I want to send and see if SLS can deliver it?  It's called Mars Direct.  For settlement all of the science equipment would not be sent in a Mars Hab, which saves 500 lbs, the lab equipment won't go,saves 500 lbs, and the pressurized rover and two open rovers would be in the Rover Hanger which is launched on a separate SLS and the Mars Hab and Rover Hanger dock in space so that saves another 4,400 lbs.  Total saved so far of 5,400 lbs.

I would add the WAVAR which is 1,947 lbs.  How's it lookin?

Will anything you send require any substantial amount of power from Lead-acid batteries?

I forgot just how bad Lead-acid actually was.  That 13,778lbs figure I threw out there for 2 years worth of power for WAVAR using solar panels and Lead-acid batteries, well...  That's going to have to go up unless we use that fission reactor.  I was thinking we could get away with 80% depth-of-discharge because I substituted what we could get away with using Lithium-ion for what we could realistically achieve with Lead-acid.  Unfortunately, the Lead-acid cells wouldn't last a year at that depth-of-discharge.

The lead-acid battery in your truck doesn't last 10 years, not even 8, it lasts 2 years?  I just replaced the one in my car after 11 years.

Q: How many times have you drained 50% to 80% of the capacity of your battery's capacity?

A: If your alternator was working, then probably not very often.

Explanation:

Depth-of-discharge kills Lead-acid batteries about as fast as temperature increases do, sometimes faster.  Apart from all the manufacturers who have their own reports that say the same thing, Sandia National Laboratory did a study on Lead-acid battery life entitled "TEMPERATURE EFFECTS ON SEALED LEAD ACID BATTERIES AND CHARGING TECHNIQUES TO PROLONG CYCLE LIFE".  Increasing depth-of-discharge means decreasing battery life.  That means increased capacity is required to achieve a greater cycle life by decreasing depth-of-discharge, which means increasing weight.

If the temperature increases from 77F, every 15F cuts Lead-acid battery life in half.  If the temperature drops below 77F, then available capacity diminishes.  The same thing happens to Lithium-ion batteries, but at a higher temperature and they just have double the capacity to start with, can withstand more cycles as a function of the cell chemistry, voltage is more consistent during discharge than Lead-acid, and extra power is not required during recharging.

A copy-and-paste from the Sandia report:

"A high rate discharge equates to a low DOD while a low rate discharge is a high rate DOD event. Therefore, a higher EODV is recommended for a low DOD to prevent an over discharge.
The cycle life of sealed lead-acid is directly related to the depth of discharge. The typical number of discharge/charge cycles at 25°C (77°F) with respect to the depth of discharge is:
150 - 200 cycles with 100% depth of discharge (full discharge)
400 - 500 cycles with 50% depth of discharge (partial discharge)
1000 and more cycles with 30% depth of discharge (shallow discharge).
SLA batteries typically achieve a working lifetime of about 300 - 500 cycles, depending on the depth of cycling and the operating temperature. This is significantly shorter than the lifetime of NiCad’s, and is due to a chemical reaction at the positive plates, which gradually causes them to expand and change in composition. So the charge capacity of an SLA slowly falls, as the battery is cycled. The primary reason for the relatively short cycle life after many full discharges is grid corrosion of the positive electrode, depletion of the active material and expansion of the positive plates. These changes are most prevalent at higher operating temperatures. Cycling does not prevent or reverse the trend. Under normal operating conditions, four or five years of dependable service life can be expected in stand-by applications (up to ten for the Hawker Cyclon line), or between 200 and 1000 charge/discharge cycles depending on the average depth of discharge."

The mass of life support wear parts is equal to the mass of the 3D printing solution you want to take?  I thought you wanted to take food and water?

I wanted to send a measly 100kg worth of 3D printing tools and media.  The robots were primarily there to reduce the number of EVA's and to provide assistance to the humans with mundane but important tasks so the humans could spend more time doing things only a human can do.  A robot doesn't understand what complacency is, much less ever become complacent.  I thought to myself, well, if the robot is already there to limit the number of potentially lethal activities for humans to undertake, why not also use it for printing new parts since it's capable of the level of precision required?

If WAVAR is really that important to you, then you'd better have a lot more power on tap.  It's not impossible, it just requires a lot more power to fill up that water shield in a reasonable amount of time.

Terraformer

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From: Ceres

Registered: 2007-08-27

Posts: 3,818

Website

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Dook, why would the crew grow food, when they can just import it from Terra with all their other supplies? Food doesn't mass that much. Maybe they'll start growing food in a couple of centuries, but certainly not at the start.

---

"I'm gonna die surrounded by the biggest idiots in the galaxy." - If this forum was a Mars Colony

Dook

Banned

From: USA

Registered: 2004-01-09

Posts: 1,409

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

I don't want the crew to use in-situ resources?  The crew will absolutely use in-situ resources, CO2 to make oxygen, WAVAR to make water from the Martian atmosphere, and regolith to grow food.

And hematite concretions to make steel. And anorthite or bytownite to make aluminum. Or CO2 and water and power to make plastic. Add salt from Mars soil to make polycarbonate plastic for spacesuit helmet visors, or add nitrogen from Mars atmosphere to make nylon.

I'm not in a hurry for a second crew to land on Mars.  You are.  That's the difference.

I've been waiting for a Mars mission since Apollo 11. As of this July that's 48 years. I want it to happen before I'm dead. NASA squandered a great opportunity when President George H. W. Bush said "go to Mars". They asked for everything under the Sun, with a price tag Congress would never approve. Now we have another opportunity, the first since 1989. Trump wants a human mission to Mars within his presidency. That sets a strict limit; especially if you believe he's a one-term president. But assume for the moment that he will last two terms, that means human crew must set foot on red soil before November 2024. That's where the deadline comes from.

Hematite is iron oxide.  Melting it doesn't make steel, it makes iron.  Where are you going to get the carbon from?

They will make anorthite or bytownite to make aluminum?  In about 500 years. 

They will use Mars salt to make polycarbonate plastic for space suit helmet visors?  In about 500 years. 

You want a Mars mission to happen before you die?  It's not about you.

Oldfart1939

Member

Registered: 2016-11-26

Posts: 2,384

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

I said CREWED missions would be every 15-16 years. 

Do I think 10 million miles will make that much difference?  I'm not in a hurry for a second crew to land on Mars.  You are.  That's the difference.

I somehow expect the first crew on Mars would appreciate reinforcement or replacement before 15-16 years elapse. A 4 person crew would be batshit crazy by that time, and probably would all be senior citizens incapable of doing much. ONE resupply after the landing? They'll not need any further resupply until 15-16 years, 'cause they'll all be dead.

Dook

Banned

From: USA

Registered: 2004-01-09

Posts: 1,409

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

kbd512

You never stated that you would use the 3D printer to make rocket engines on Mars?  You refuse to list the things you want to make with the 3D printer so you're hiding something.  It's rocket engines and shelf brackets.  The colonists are going to have all kinds of shelves to put stuff on.       

What would having zeolite panels hard mounted inside a large microwave accomplish?  No rack and pinion and no motor to spin the zeolite into a microwave chamber, then spin it out again.  A more simple design means less things can go wrong. 

Robonaut can move about the ISS and operate hand tools?  No, it can hold hand tools, it can't use them yet.  But I'm all for using robots on Mars.  Let's wait. 

The rule you were trying to make was that I could either send food and water OR batteries.  That's not really a rule.  I can send all of that and more. 

Will anything I send require any substantial amount of power from the lead-acid batteries?  Only in an emergency. 

The WAVAR would be powered by the big RTG or reactor and solar panels, not batteries. 

How many times have I drained 50% to 80% of the capacity on my battery?  When I was young and working on my car a lot (I had a Vega with a grumpy carburetor) I would drain my battery sometimes.  Hasn't happened in the last 30 years. 

The Long Range Rover and the Marscat will have multiple deep cycle batteries and they will be used for about an hour a day then recharge.  The Long Range Rover has it's own solar array on top so it can recharge itself.  The Marscat would be plugged in to the base power.  So, they won't be discharged to 50% unless there is some emergency.

If temperature increases or decreases from 77 degrees F it cuts battery life?  The Long Range Rover and Marscat would be used at mid day when it's about 70 degrees. 

You want to send 100kg worth of 3D printing tools and media?  To make what?

The Robonaut might be capable of the precision required to use tools but it can't see something and determine the correct action to take.   

I need a lot of power for the WAVAR to fill up the water shield in a reasonable time?  The Mars Hab already has 18" of hydrogen impregnated fabric and an outer water sack shield that is full and regolith on top.  The inner water sack will be filled when it gets filled.

Last edited by Dook (2017-05-09 10:26:36)

Oldfart1939

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Registered: 2016-11-26

Posts: 2,384

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Hematite is iron oxide.  Melting it doesn't make steel, it makes iron.  Where are you going to get the carbon from?

Wrong. Heating Hematite doesn't make Iron; it simply makes HOT hematite. Hematite needs a reducing agent in order to convert from Fe (III) to Fe (0). That's provided in the blast furnace equations by Carbon Monoxide (by-product of the Moxie unit). Additional Carbon: same source. There are many different formulations for "steel." Each type is determined not only by Carbon content, but by secondary alloy elements, i.e. Manganese, Molybdenum, Chromium, Nickel, etc. Iron can be readily produced on Mars through Iron Carbonyls. Add some Nickel Carbonyl, and we get an Armor plate steel; add some Chromium and we get a Stainless steel.

Dook

Banned

From: USA

Registered: 2004-01-09

Posts: 1,409

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Dook, why would the crew grow food, when they can just import it from Terra with all their other supplies? Food doesn't mass that much. Maybe they'll start growing food in a couple of centuries, but certainly not at the start.

Why would the crew grow food?  Because it's life support, it's not just food but also oxygen and a way to use their waste.  They can import food from the Earth, and I'm sure they will get food resupply once a year at first, probably food types that they can't grow on Mars, but they need to become self sufficient.

What we're all really arguing about is the best way to achieve self sufficiency.  I think that life support is the key to survival and growth.  They think making steel is the key to survival and growth. 

The real truth is that you can't eat, drink, or breath steel so they know that steel has nothing to do with expanding the colony.  They just don't want to imagine having colonists who live the life of simple farmers on Mars.  They want the colonists to make things, like swords and shelves and rocket engines.

Last edited by Dook (2017-05-09 09:21:52)

Dook

Banned

From: USA

Registered: 2004-01-09

Posts: 1,409

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

I said CREWED missions would be every 15-16 years. 

Do I think 10 million miles will make that much difference?  I'm not in a hurry for a second crew to land on Mars.  You are.  That's the difference.

I somehow expect the first crew on Mars would appreciate reinforcement or replacement before 15-16 years elapse. A 4 person crew would be batshit crazy by that time, and probably would all be senior citizens incapable of doing much. ONE resupply after the landing? They'll not need any further resupply until 15-16 years, 'cause they'll all be dead.

You think a crew on Mars would appreciate reinforcement or replacement before 15 years elapses?  So, you're on Mars maintaining life support systems, processing waste, and growing food and other people show up so now you have to split your food in half.  Yeah, I don't think they will appreciate that at all. 

Will they want to go home at some point?  I'm sure NASA will rotate people.  I wouldn't. 

A 4 person crew would be batshit crazy after 15 years on Mars and senior citizens?  You might want to read up on the history of Pitcairn Island, or Shoichi Yokoi.  Also, they would leave for Mars when they were 22-24 years old so they would be 37-39 years old, not even old enough to get in AARP. 

One resupply after the landing, they would all be dead?  I didn't say they would get one resupply.

kbd512

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Registered: 2015-01-02

Posts: 7,431

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

You never stated that you would use the 3D printer to make rocket engines on Mars?  You refuse to list the things you want to make with the 3D printer so you're hiding something.  It's rocket engines and shelf brackets.  The colonists are going to have all kinds of shelves to put stuff on.

I want to make "repairs" as substitutes for complete replacement parts, where feasible, because if you keep adding parts to the pile of parts you need to take to make repairs, eventually you'll end up with a lot of stuff that never gets used.

LIST OF WHAT I WANT TO "MAKE"

Can a printer fix a crack?  Yep.  Do I need an entire new part?  Nope.

Can a printer fix a chip?  Yep.  Do I need an entire new part?  Nope.

Can a printer fill in a hole?  Yep.  Do I need an entire new part?  Nope.

Can a printer re-solder a loose connection?  Yep.  Do I need an entire new part?  Nope.

Can a printer un-solder a connection that was previously made by a printer?  Yep.  Do I need an entire new part?  Nope.

Can a printer make an entirely new circuit trace?  Yep.  Is this an actual example of making an entirely new parts?  Yes.  Will it be done just for giggles?  No.

Do I need to make screws, ball bearings, or seals?  No.  Can a printer make or resurface seals?  Yes.  This is something that's actually done.  Would we make tiny little seals just for giggles?  No.  If there was a very large and therefore heavy seal would we try to repair it before replacing it?  Yes.  Is that feasible?  Yes.

What would having zeolite panels hard mounted inside a large microwave accomplish?  No rack and pinion and no motor to spin the zeolite into a microwave chamber, then spin it out again.  A more simple design means less things can go wrong.

So a dramatically increased power requirement is not a complication if something actually has to deliver the power production plant to Mars?

Robonaut can move about the ISS and operate hand tools?  No, it can hold hand tools, it can't use them yet.  But I'm all for using robots on Mars.  Let's wait.

Ben dun... many, many years ago.  Robots are already using tools in factories across the world.  If the robots were really doing that poorly, we wouldn't be using so many more of them with each passing year.  Since we're sending humans, it's not as if the robot has to operate with complete autonomy.

I would rather have a robot move a nuclear power source into position and turn it on, but that's just me.  If something goes wrong, maybe I fry a robot.  If nothing goes wrong, and it probably won't, then I still kept humans clear of a potential danger.  The reactor is less radioactive than the RTG before it goes critical, but after it's gone critical it's highly radioactive.  Criticality accidents are typically debilitating to fatal for humans.  I want a robot available to perform emergency manual shutdowns, too, by manually turning control drums.  There's shielding on top and a human could technically do it without serious injury, but it's an unnecessary risk when we have technology available to do it for us.

What I described is already done in nuclear power plants.  Robots can absorb radiation doses that would prove fatal to a human in seconds.  It's not a zero-risk affair, but nuclear power provides electrical power output levels that would otherwise be unrealistic for other technologies as a function of mass.  If you don't have power or don't have sufficient power in the environment on Mars or in space, there's a 100% chance of a fatal result.

The rule you were trying to make was that I could either send food and water OR batteries.  That's not really a rule.  I can send all of that and more.

I don't make any rules here, Dook.  The rockets can deliver what they can deliver.  If the rocket manufacturer says, "This rocket can deliver X tons of payload to Y destination", then that generally means what most of us think it means.  We can send whatever we want if cost and schedule is not an issue, but it's a major issue and the most intractable impediment to further exploration of space.  Food doesn't keep forever, electronics get fried, and people don't fare very well in microgravity and high radiation environments, either.  The payload can be lead or it can be food and water, but relying on the heaviest, lowest-output, shortest-life battery technology for backup power is probably not a good idea because it means sacrificing something else of equal importance.

Will anything I send require any substantial amount of power from the lead-acid batteries?  Only in an emergency.

Ok, well, that sounds reasonable.

The WAVAR would be powered by the big RTG or reactor and solar panels, not batteries.

The fission reactor would work.  The "big RTG" would cost about what NASA spends on human space flight every year.  Solar panels require batteries unless they're only used in the day time.

How many times have I drained 50% to 80% of the capacity on my battery?  When I was young and working on my car a lot (I had a Vega with a grumpy carburetor) I would drain my battery sometimes.  Hasn't happened in the last 30 years.

So your alternator works?  That's fantastic.  That's why your battery lasted 11 years.  Getting 900 cold cranking amps (10.8kWe) for 2 or 3 seconds is not asking very much of your battery.  Start draining 50% of it's capacity and see how long it lasts.

The Long Range Rover and the Marscat will have multiple deep cycle batteries and they will be used for about an hour a day then recharge.  The Long Range Rover has it's own solar array on top so it can recharge itself.  The Marscat would be plugged in to the base power.  So, they won't be discharged to 50% unless there is some emergency.

If you plug the vehicles in to base power, then they don't need very big batteries, but now you have an extension cord connected to a piece of earth moving equipment.  It would work if someone is handling the cord.

If temperature increases or decreases from 77 degrees F it cuts battery life?  The Long Range Rover and Marscat would be used at mid day when it's about 70 degrees.

Will they need power at night?

You want to send 100kg worth of 3D printing tools and media?  To make what?

I answered multiple times.  I want to "make" repairs.  This is well within the capability of existing technologies.

The Robonaut might be capable of the precision required to use tools but it can't see something and determine the correct action to take.

So the self-driving cars aren't determining the correct action to take?

I need a lot of power for the WAVAR to fill up the water shield in a reasonable time?  The Mars Hab already has 18" of hydrogen impregnated fabric and an outer water sack shield that is full and regolith on top.  The inner water sack will be filled when it gets filled.

Hydrogen impregnated BNNT fabrics and water or food walls are the very best we can do in deep space.  It can stop or seriously diminish the energy from lower atomic mass ions and pretty much stop SPE's and CME's cold, but the heavier ions are the nasties that penetrate furthest and do the most damage to living tissue.  Meters of dense shielding material are all we really can use to stop the heavier ions without active radiation shielding technology to deflect them.  The BNNT and water walls are the 90% solution, but that other 10% will still be debilitating with enough time.  That faster you protect your crew from the heavy ions, the longer and more productive their lives will be.

Oldfart1939

Member

Registered: 2016-11-26

Posts: 2,384

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

So...you now want to send a crew of 22 to 24 year old individuals to accomplish what would be the most challenging endeavor of mankind? Those who will not even be sure that this is what they want to do the rest of their lives? Too inexperienced to face the challenges or make the right decisions? NASA wouldn't ever buy in to such a scheme, nor would Elon Musk. I'd expect a requirement of at least 5 years industrial experience or military service--BEFORE entering a 3-5 year intensive course of Astronaut training. That would put the youngest at age 30, which in my mind is still too young. And no, the "tour of duty" should be limited to maybe 2-3 Hohmann transfer intervals before anyone expatriates permanently. Why, you ask? The Earthbound scientists and engineers would want--nay, demand--a mission debriefing in addition to complete medical exams in order to determine the effects of GCR radiation and lengthy exposure to low gravity.

louis

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From: UK

Registered: 2008-03-24

Posts: 7,208

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Yes I agree.  Ideal age is probably 32-37 at launch (= 35-40 on return).   No way will anyone stay on the Mars surface longer than 2 years or so on the first mission.  If all goes exceptionally well on Mission One, you might think about extending it to 4 years for the following mission. But 4 years away from family and friend...that's a hell of a long time at such an age.  It will be a tall order finding the people with the right stuff and the willingness to sacrifice a good chunk of their Earth life to progress settlement on Mars.  Single people without their own family might be best suited to the role. It's tricky when you begin to think about the human dynamics (not sure Musk has thought those through entirely).

So...you now want to send a crew of 22 to 24 year old individuals to accomplish what would be the most challenging endeavor of mankind? Those who will not even be sure that this is what they want to do the rest of their lives? Too inexperienced to face the challenges or make the right decisions? NASA wouldn't ever buy in to such a scheme, nor would Elon Musk. I'd expect a requirement of at least 5 years industrial experience or military service--BEFORE entering a 3-5 year intensive course of Astronaut training. That would put the youngest at age 30, which in my mind is still too young. And no, the "tour of duty" should be limited to maybe 2-3 Hohmann transfer intervals before anyone expatriates permanently. Why, you ask? The Earthbound scientists and engineers would want--nay, demand--a mission debriefing in addition to complete medical exams in order to determine the effects of GCR radiation and lengthy exposure to low gravity.

---

Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

Dook

Banned

From: USA

Registered: 2004-01-09

Posts: 1,409

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

kbd512

You want to repair things instead of replacing parts?  How would the 3D printer repair a bearing, or a filter, or a burned out motor, or a sensor, or a battery acid plate, or a compression gasket, or a door seal, or an o-ring, or a zeolite panel, or an amine pellet?   

Can a 3D printer fix a crack?  Only if the component can fit inside the 3D printer and the crew would have to MANUALLY move the part back and forth while the 3D printer welds it. 

Can a 3D printer fix a chip?  No.  The 3D printer can't scan and determine where it needs to apply material and how much.  It would have to make a new one. 

Can a 3D printer fill in a hole?  Only if that hole is in something that is removable and fits inside the 3D printer. 

Can a printer re-solder a loose connection?  Yes. 

Can a 3D printer un-solder?  The Voxel 8 can't.  It doesn't have a laser.  It's just a sprayer. 

Can a 3D printer make an entirely new circuit?  Yes, if you ship the fiberglass motherboard.  If you're going to ship fiberglass motherboards and powder to make circuit boards why not just ship the motherboad already made?  It's the same weight and size. 

Can a printer resurface seals?  Resurfacing them won't give a hard seal back it's elasticity and you can't resurface o-rings because that would change their size and they would no longer fit.  Also, a 3D printer can't scan and determine an action, it would have to be done manually. 

Resurfacing of seals is actually done?  Oh really?  You worked on EA-6B's, name the seals that you resurfaced. 

A dramatically increased power requirement is not a complication?  Uh, removing the WAVAR zeolite rack and pinion system and the small motor that runs it would reduce the power requirement, not increase it. 

Robots are already using tools in factories across the world?  Yeah, as long as the item is exactly where it's supposed to be the robot can perform a simple process, then the item moves forward and another robot performs a different task, and on and on.  What robots cannot do is see and determine the right course of action on their own. 

You would rather use a robot to move a nuclear reactor into position and perform other tasks?  When they can do more they will really be useful. 

The fission reactor would work?  I'm not against using a reactor but the electrical power requirements could be greatly reduced if we get rid of the rocket fuel manufacturing and other non-life support uses like trying to make steel.

Solar panels require batteries?  The Mars Hab will have built in batteries. 

Start draining 50% of my battery capacity and see how long it works?  Why would anyone design a Mars vehicle to do that? 

We could have Mars vehicles that operate around the base using extension cords instead of battery power and someone (you think a robot) could handle the cord?  We could.  I think having a Marscat that can be driven independant, without having to worry about running over it's cord or have another person move the cord around, outweighs the long electrical cord. 

Will the Mars Hab need power at night?  Of course. 

The self driving cars aren't determining the correct action to take?  They're not ready yet, they're close.  Ask that car to scan a crack and determine the correct action to take and see what happens. 

The crew needs more radiation protection sooner?  Once the buried habitat is finished they will have it.  Depending on how much rock they hit, it should take them about a month or two.

Dook

Banned

From: USA

Registered: 2004-01-09

Posts: 1,409

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

So...you now want to send a crew of 22 to 24 year old individuals to accomplish what would be the most challenging endeavor of mankind? Those who will not even be sure that this is what they want to do the rest of their lives? Too inexperienced to face the challenges or make the right decisions? NASA wouldn't ever buy in to such a scheme, nor would Elon Musk. I'd expect a requirement of at least 5 years industrial experience or military service--BEFORE entering a 3-5 year intensive course of Astronaut training. That would put the youngest at age 30, which in my mind is still too young. And no, the "tour of duty" should be limited to maybe 2-3 Hohmann transfer intervals before anyone expatriates permanently. Why, you ask? The Earthbound scientists and engineers would want--nay, demand--a mission debriefing in addition to complete medical exams in order to determine the effects of GCR radiation and lengthy exposure to low gravity.

22 to 24 year old are too inexperienced to face the challenges or make the right decisions?  Who do you think fought in and won all the wars, 40-50 year olds? 

But I'm okay with sending 30 year olds.

elderflower

Member

Registered: 2016-06-19

Posts: 1,262

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Dook, Only half of the whatever year olds can be said to have won any war. The other half lost.
Young potentially fertile people should not be exposed on such a trip, due to the hazards of irradiation of gonads. It has to be people who have done any breeding they might want to do.

RobertDyck

Moderator

From: Winnipeg, Canada

Registered: 2002-08-20

Posts: 7,811

Website

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Hematite is iron oxide.  Melting it doesn't make steel, it makes iron.  Where are you going to get the carbon from?

So you don't know basic smelting. Iron oxide minerals are processed with carbon monoxide at high temperature. The carbon monoxide combines with oxide from the mineral to form carbon dioxide. That reduce the mineral to iron metal. However, some of the carbon from carbon monoxide dissolves into the molten iron producing steel. If you do this with pure carbon monoxide, it produces steel with too much carbon. That makes it brittle. The "Direct Iron" method aka "Direct Reduced Iron" adds hydrogen, which also combines with oxygen from the mineral to form water. This reduces the amount of carbon dissolved into steel. They balance carbon monoxide with hydrogen to ensure final carbon content is correct for steel produced.

On Mars we can produce carbon monoxide by the Reverse Water Gas Shift (RWGS), which reacts CO2 with hydrogen, producing water and carbon monoxide. Once the smelter is in operation, CO2 is recycled this way. Water is recycled to hydrogen via electrolysis.

They will make anorthite or bytownite to make aluminum?  In about 500 years.

Wrong. Anorthite and bytownite are forms of plagioclase feldspar. They exist in basalt, and have been confirmed to exist on the surface of Mars right now. They're igneous minerals, aluminum silicate with calcium and a little bit of sodium. I presented a paper at the Mars Society convention in Chicago in 2004 on how to process them to aluminum metal. Turns out there's a mining company in Sweden already doing it; I re-invented the wheel. But good news is it works. It's being done now, not 500 years in the future.

They will use Mars salt to make polycarbonate plastic for space suit helmet visors?  In about 500 years.

You again said the same bullshit. Plastic is made on Earth today. One basic ingredient is ethylene. Read The Case for Mars to learn how. For more detail how to make various plastics, read my web page here.

You want a Mars mission to happen before you die?  It's not about you.

And it's not about you. It is about every human being on the planet who received the promise from NASA in the 1960s that we would go to Mars. So for everyone in the western world alive at the time of Apollo in the 1960s, we were promised a human mission to Mars. In 1968 NASA promised that would happen in 1978. That was 10 years later, so sounded reasonable. A mission to Mars is now that much overdue. It needs to happen within our life time. Within the life time of everyone who received that promise in 1968.

Dook

Banned

From: USA

Registered: 2004-01-09

Posts: 1,409

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Dook, Only half of the whatever year olds can be said to have won any war. The other half lost.
Young potentially fertile people should not be exposed on such a trip, due to the hazards of irradiation of gonads. It has to be people who have done any breeding they might want to do.

The point was that young people were not too inexperienced to face challenges and make decisions that affected the rest of their lives, and others lives. 

Young people can't be exposed to radiation or they can't have kids?  I would explain to the males that they would have to have vasectomies and stay on Mars forever.  It would be a one way trip.  I'm talking about the settlers would stay, the exploration teams would come home. 

Is NASA going to do that?  No, they will return people, but I wouldn't.

elderflower

Member

Registered: 2016-06-19

Posts: 1,262

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Many years of work will be needed before your one way trip to mars becomes anything other than a suicide mission, Dook. In the meantime we must allow for return missions, otherwise we shall get too many headcases wanting to go and we shan't be able to eliminate them all. The combination of loonies and a bit of cabin fever will certainly lead to trouble, if not total mission failure.

Dook

Banned

From: USA

Registered: 2004-01-09

Posts: 1,409

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Hematite is iron oxide.  Melting it doesn't make steel, it makes iron.  Where are you going to get the carbon from?

So you don't know basic smelting. Iron oxide minerals are processed with carbon monoxide at high temperature. The carbon monoxide combines with oxide from the mineral to form carbon dioxide. That reduce the mineral to iron metal. However, some of the carbon from carbon monoxide dissolves into the molten iron producing steel. If you do this with pure carbon monoxide, it produces steel with too much carbon. That makes it brittle. The "Direct Iron" method aka "Direct Reduced Iron" adds hydrogen, which also combines with oxygen from the mineral to form water. This reduces the amount of carbon dissolved into steel. They balance carbon monoxide with hydrogen to ensure final carbon content is correct for steel produced.

On Mars we can produce carbon monoxide by the Reverse Water Gas Shift (RWGS), which reacts CO2 with hydrogen, producing water and carbon monoxide. Once the smelter is in operation, CO2 is recycled this way. Water is recycled to hydrogen via electrolysis.

They will make anorthite or bytownite to make aluminum?  In about 500 years.

Wrong. Anorthite and bytownite are forms of plagioclase feldspar. They exist in basalt, and have been confirmed to exist on the surface of Mars right now. They're igneous minerals, aluminum silicate with calcium and a little bit of sodium. I presented a paper at the Mars Society convention in Chicago in 2004 on how to process them to aluminum metal. Turns out there's a mining company in Sweden already doing it; I re-invented the wheel. But good news is it works. It's being done now, not 500 years in the future.

They will use Mars salt to make polycarbonate plastic for space suit helmet visors?  In about 500 years.

You again said the same bullshit. Plastic is made on Earth today. One basic ingredient is ethylene. Read The Case for Mars to learn how. For more detail how to make various plastics, read my web page here.

You want a Mars mission to happen before you die?  It's not about you.

And it's not about you. It is about every human being on the planet who received the promise from NASA in the 1960s that we would go to Mars. So for everyone in the western world alive at the time of Apollo in the 1960s, we were promised a human mission to Mars. In 1968 NASA promised that would happen in 1978. That was 10 years later, so sounded reasonable. A mission to Mars is now that much overdue. It needs to happen within our life time. Within the life time of everyone who received that promise in 1968.

I don't know basic smelting?  No, I have people in China do that for me. 

Iron is processed with carbon monoxide at high temperature to make steel?  So you need a whole other habitat that has a forge, a hydrogen storage tank, a carbon monoxide storage tank, a water storage tank, an electrolysis machine, and this whole other habitat has to be pressurized for water to be a liquid.  Then, when you get this small amount of steel, what are you going to make with it?

We won't have to wait 500 years before we learn how to make aluminum from basalt?  I didn't say we would have to wait 500 years to figure out how to do it, I said we would manufacture aluminum on Mars in about 500 years, because the first settlement will be focused on life support systems and growing food, not messing around outside trying to find basalt.

Plastic is made on Earth today?  Not in a an environment that doesn't have oxygen, food, water, and extreme cold temperatures.   

Just because something is possible doesn't mean it's practical.  Life support will be priority 1, 2, 3, and 4. 

NASA promised you that they would send humans to Mars?  Your taxes don't contribute to NASA's funding.  They'll go when they are ready.  They're not ready yet.

Dook

Banned

From: USA

Registered: 2004-01-09

Posts: 1,409

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Many years of work will be needed before your one way trip to mars becomes anything other than a suicide mission, Dook. In the meantime we must allow for return missions, otherwise we shall get too many headcases wanting to go and we shan't be able to eliminate them all. The combination of loonies and a bit of cabin fever will certainly lead to trouble, if not total mission failure.

Many years of work will be needed before a one way mission becomes a suicide mission?  So you're saying that having to depend on an ERV and spend another 6 months in space to get home is a SAFER mission design than not having to do that?

By not sending an ERV that means we can instead launch a shipment of food, water, and spare parts.     

We'll get too many headcases wanting to go to Mars if it was a one way mission?  I wouldn't accept any applications for it.  I would hand pick young professional scientist couples to apply for it and explain everything to them before they even began the program.

Terraformer

Member

From: Ceres

Registered: 2007-08-27

Posts: 3,818

Website

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Dook, just what *are* you envisioning happening for the next 100 years? As far as I can tell, your plan would have teams of people in their 20s landing on Mars on one way trips, and living out of the habitats they land in for the rest of their lives. Every couple of years, supplies would arrive from Earth to keep them alive, but they would grow their own food.

What would they do, though? Are they there to simply say that we have people there?

---

"I'm gonna die surrounded by the biggest idiots in the galaxy." - If this forum was a Mars Colony

kbd512

Administrator

Registered: 2015-01-02

Posts: 7,431

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

You want to repair things instead of replacing parts?  How would the 3D printer repair a bearing, or a filter, or a burned out motor, or a sensor, or a battery acid plate, or a compression gasket, or a door seal, or an o-ring, or a zeolite panel, or an amine pellet?

If I said it can't (as in, "no can do") make a ball bearing, then why are you still stuck on what I already told you it can't do?

I could care less whether or not it could make a zeolite panel because I would never send something so heavy and power hungry that produces so little output.  In other words, I would never send WAVAR.  WAVAR is an idea, that's it.  It's something someone thought up.  If it works, then it'll only work as well as ambient conditions allow for.  In the very best of circumstances, it's output is pitiful.

There is as much water in every cubic foot of regolith as there are in thousands of kilograms of atmosphere.  How do we know that?  All of our rovers collecting samples seem to say the same thing.  On average, a liter per cubic foot.  Who cares if you have to shovel dirt into a bucket?  It requires very little energy, it's not as if there's a shortage of dirt, and the process for extracting the water is no different than the process for extracting water from zeolite.  If you heat it sufficiently, the water boils.  If scooping up a cubic foot of dirt is too complicated, then maybe we shouldn't go.

Can a 3D printer fix a crack?  Only if the component can fit inside the 3D printer and the crew would have to MANUALLY move the part back and forth while the 3D printer welds it.

If the printer is mounted on the robot, and the robot can move, and the robots do move on their own or when directed by a human, then the print head can probably be brought to the source of the problem.

Can a 3D printer fix a chip?  No.  The 3D printer can't scan and determine where it needs to apply material and how much.  It would have to make a new one.

I never said it could... ever.  I said chips are actually 3D printed, because they are... damn near all of them.

Can a 3D printer fill in a hole?  Only if that hole is in something that is removable and fits inside the 3D printer.

Move the printer to the problem.  That's what I said and what I meant.  The print head is the size of screw driver handle and nearly the same shape.  It can be attached to a robot.

Can a printer re-solder a loose connection?  Yes.

Finally, a response to something I actually stated.

Can a 3D printer un-solder?  The Voxel 8 can't.  It doesn't have a laser.  It's just a sprayer.

Some are, some aren't.  Can we combine a screw driver bit with a cordless drill to make a cordless screwdriver?  Someone did it a long time I ago.  I use it every so often to make certain jobs go faster.

Can a 3D printer make an entirely new circuit?  Yes, if you ship the fiberglass motherboard.  If you're going to ship fiberglass motherboards and powder to make circuit boards why not just ship the motherboad already made?  It's the same weight and size.

The "motherboard" is now a flexible piece of plastic, but yes you need a substrate.  If the "already made" circuit board has the same problem as the part it's replacing, can you see how that might be a problem if all you can do is swap faulty parts?

Can a printer resurface seals?  Resurfacing them won't give a hard seal back it's elasticity and you can't resurface o-rings because that would change their size and they would no longer fit.  Also, a 3D printer can't scan and determine an action, it would have to be done manually.

If I have a sealant compound that I can squirt through a nozzle and make any shape or size part I need, then I really don't need an inventory of a 101 different parts, do I?

If a person already has the engineering drawings for the parts in a computer, then how hard is it to "know" which part you're looking at and to tell a computer to blueprint a part, meaning if it's not within this size, add some more material?

Resurfacing of seals is actually done?  Oh really?  You worked on EA-6B's, name the seals that you resurfaced.

The technology to do this didn't exist when I was in the Navy, but how is this dramatically different from tire recycling (apart from being a lot simpler)?

A dramatically increased power requirement is not a complication?  Uh, removing the WAVAR zeolite rack and pinion system and the small motor that runs it would reduce the power requirement, not increase it.

How much power do the rack and pinion motors consume?  The WAVAR document already told you that the continuous power requirement was for the fan motor and the peak power requirement was for the magnetrons.  You threw this WAVAR idea out here, then claimed they were wrong about the power requirements and now you want to change the design, all without knowing why it was designed the way it was.

Robots are already using tools in factories across the world?  Yeah, as long as the item is exactly where it's supposed to be the robot can perform a simple process, then the item moves forward and another robot performs a different task, and on and on.  What robots cannot do is see and determine the right course of action on their own.

If you think welding something that's moving is simple, try it and let me know how that goes.

When a car is moving through an assembly line, robots pick up objects that weigh as much as a person and insert them where they need to go while the car is moving down the assembly line.

You can kick a big dog robot hard enough to cause a human to crumple like a rag doll and most of the time the robot regains its balance without falling and continues on.  If it does fall, it gets back up and keeps going.  It's not a "trick", it's "technology".

You would rather use a robot to move a nuclear reactor into position and perform other tasks?  When they can do more they will really be useful.

They already do more than you think they do.  There's a difference between personal belief and first hand knowledge.  I worked in a factory with robots.  The humans screwed things up far more often than the robots ever did.  I'm not suggesting that there won't ever be a human somewhere nearby, so I have no idea where you're going with this.

The fission reactor would work?  I'm not against using a reactor but the electrical power requirements could be greatly reduced if we get rid of the rocket fuel manufacturing and other non-life support uses like trying to make steel.

I was thinking the exact same thing about WAVAR.  Far too much energy expended for very little return.  A rover that scoops dirt into a bin would get more water in a day than WAVAR would make in a month, maybe several months depending upon the time of the Martian year.

Solar panels require batteries?  The Mars Hab will have built in batteries.

What's the amp-hour capacity of the batteries required?

Start draining 50% of my battery capacity and see how long it works?  Why would anyone design a Mars vehicle to do that?

For the rover to get to where its going faster than a human can walk, it's going to need substantial battery storage capacity.  Have you seen any electric vehicles using Lead-acid batteries for power storage, or do they all run on Lithium-ion batteries?

We could have Mars vehicles that operate around the base using extension cords instead of battery power and someone (you think a robot) could handle the cord?  We could.  I think having a Marscat that can be driven independant, without having to worry about running over it's cord or have another person move the cord around, outweighs the long electrical cord.

So it's battery powered, right?

What's the power requirement?

No passenger carrying electric vehicle made anywhere on the planet today uses Lead-acid batteries.  Is there a reason for that?

Maybe...

1. Weight
2. Poor life cycle at greater depth-of-discharge (more weight required)
3. Poor charging characteristics (power not actually transferred during recharging)

The self driving cars aren't determining the correct action to take?  They're not ready yet, they're close.  Ask that car to scan a crack and determine the correct action to take and see what happens.

Is it a commercial product I can hand to the dumbest person on the planet?  No, but the car is already "scanning cracks" or it wouldn't be capable of going anywhere at all without constant human input, which pretty much defeats the purpose of having the technology.  Read about the DARPA Grand Challenge.

The crew needs more radiation protection sooner?  Once the buried habitat is finished they will have it.  Depending on how much rock they hit, it should take them about a month or two.

If you can only use the Marscat an hour per day, which will be the case unless it has an extension cord and uses base power, then how much regolith can you move using an ATV-sized vehicle in one hour per day?

Dook

Banned

From: USA

Registered: 2004-01-09

Posts: 1,409

Re: Air. Shelter. Water. Food.

Dook, just what *are* you envisioning happening for the next 100 years? As far as I can tell, your plan would have teams of people in their 20s landing on Mars on one way trips, and living out of the habitats they land in for the rest of their lives. Every couple of years, supplies would arrive from Earth to keep them alive, but they would grow their own food.

What would they do, though? Are they there to simply say that we have people there?

I envision three exploration missions starting in 2035 to different parts of Mars and the crews return to Earth on an ERV. 

Then about 2066 we would launch a buried habitat component module into orbit that would dock in space with a supply (food, water, spare parts) module and both would become one spacecraft and blast off to Mars.   

Then we would launch a big RTG or reactor module and another supply module, they dock and go to Mars. 

Six months later we would launch a Mars hab with a small RTG in it, and 4 crew (2 couples), into orbit and dock with a rover hanger (With a Long Range Rover, Mars cart, and Marscat) and both spacecraft would blast off to Mars.

On landing the crew sets up the thin solar array and the small RTG then 2 crew drive the Long Range Rover over to the pre-landed buried habitat and supply modules.  They bring everything back to the base on the Mars cart.  Then they go and get the big RTG or reactor and supplies and bring them back to the base.  They may have to make multiple trips. 

Then they use the Marscat to dig a 100 foot wide circular pit that is 17 feet deep and has tapered sides.  They would only use the Marscat for about 1-2 hours a day so it would take some time. 

When the pit is dug out they would assemble seven, 25' across, cylinder habitats and make sure they move in unassembled hydroponics and other unassembled equipment and furniture before they install the ceiling.  They would build hallways to connect each cylinder then bury the habitats and install the RTG's in the buried regolith over the habitats.  Once this is done the crew can move into the habitats and start growing hydroponics and using regolith tubs. 

Building this series of seven buried cylinders would take a few months depending on how much rock they hit.   

After this they could receive a shipment of greenhouse panels to make a 100 foot wide domed greenhouse over the buried habitats.  The domed greenhouse could not be pressurized or used to grow food but it would provide heat. 

They crew would maintain life support equipment, grow food in regolith tubs and chicken/fish food in hydroponics, tend the chickens and tilapia fish, and have their laptops for entertainment.     

Then, after some time, they would receive another buried habitat shipment and have to build another seven buried cylinders shelter for the next crew of 4.