Do I dare? :-) - Election predictions

Cobra Commander · 2004-11-01 13:36:51

Seriously, there are a lot more young people registered to vote this election than in past elections. . . It is quite possible that the new voters will swing the vote in favor of Kerry this election.

Perhaps, but I'm of the opinion that there's an automatic bias to assume that "young people" will vote Kerry when it isn't necessarily the case. There's plenty of twenty-something Bush supporters out there, there's going to be turnout on that side as well.

Commodore · 2004-11-01 15:59:08

I don't buy the whole cell phone arguement. What about all the wealthy cell phone users who are too busy to ever use there land line?

BWhite · 2004-11-01 16:02:34

I don't buy the whole cell phone arguement. What about all the wealthy cell phone users who are too busy to ever use there land line?

No one knows, yet.

However, it does appear that the first ever Zogby cell phone poll came out 55% Kerry to 40% for Bush with 5% undecided or other.

Earthfirst · 2004-11-01 22:00:33

You folks are dreaming, bush will win by a wide margin tomarrow. At my local batist church every one was prying for a Bush victory, then we burned pictures of Kerry in a large bond fire. It was very pretty, it reminded me of all those book, cd, and french flag burnings of sunday school. Ah theres nothing like signing songs to the light of a bond fire of Mechial More moves, or Clintons books. I diegress as a wise man once said, no one likes a word smith. Bush will much more than the 270 votes needed, then we can all thank God for saving us from that monster wife of Kerry Thersta or what ever that no good boar name is.
I bet .01$ that budh will win

Euler · 2004-11-02 00:26:30

The first couple of towns have already http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/World/2004/ … html]voted.

Trebuchet · 2004-11-02 05:46:18

Predicting a Bush win, 50-49 in popular and winning about 280 EV's or thereabouts.

C M Edwards · 2004-11-02 08:37:22

Lines at the polls were pretty long this morning. Back when I worked the polls many years ago, the lines didn't get past the doors until closer to lunch. This year, they started there at 6:00. Perhaps early enthusiasm will hold up in spite of the rain.

I'm not a poll worker this year, but as luck would have it they had an interesting glitch while I was there, giving the commissioner conniptions. It turns out that the electronic voting machines used locally will reset regardless of status. This means that the operator has to check behind the curtain after every voter to make absolutely certain that the "Cast Vote Now" button has been pushed. They only discovered it this morning, after they'd already "lost" two votes from those too confused to push the big glowing button under the big letters.

The illiterate and absent-minded are being disenfranchised by this new technology!

I smell a lawsuit.

PS - My two year old daughter got a cute little "I voted today" sticker for her assistance with my own big glowing button. :;):

Yang Liwei Rocket · 2004-11-02 12:43:25

I smell a lawsuit.

Some don't just smell a Lawsuit with people ready to sue, others see a REAL case going on here

DIE-BOLD Inc -& your Pre-Emptive Election

The ballots are replaced with Diebold electronic voting machines which leave no paper trails
CEO of Diebold INC., “attended a strategy pow-wow with wealthy Bush benefactors known as Rangers and Pioneers at the president’s Crawford, Texas, ranch earlier this month.” The next week, he invited guests to a $1,000-a-plate fundraiser for the Ohio GOP at his mansion in the Cleveland suburbs. This is the man whose machines have no paper trail and will be used by at least 8 million voters in the upcoming election. Ohio voters got a jolt when Walden O'Dell, CEO of Texas-based electronic voting-machine maker Diebold Inc. (and a big Bush fund-raiser), pledged "to deliver Ohio's electoral votes to the president." California authorities have said they plan to sue Diebold. Attorney General Bill Lockyer last month said he would sue Diebold, alleging that it defrauded the state with false claims.

Election time : A second location, 1901 W. Girard Ave., Berean Institute, Philadelphia, Pa, had 300+ votes already on 2 machines at start of day... INCIDENT: 292 votes on machine at start of day; WARD/DIVISION: 7/7: ADDRESS: 122 W. Erie Ave., Roberto Clemente School, Philadelphia, Pa.; INCIDENT: 456 votes on machine at start of day; WARD/DIVISION: 12/3; ADDRESS: 5657 Chew Ave., storefront, Philadelphia, Pa... MORE... A gun was purposely made visible to scare poll watchers at Ward 30, division 11, at 905 S. 20th St., Grand Court. Police were called and surrounded the location... Developing...

As one paper put it - Could it be that our politicians find it un-American to admit humanity and self-criticism? After all, the reality of our underclass cannot be summarily dismissed, nor deemed invisible. It is cynically funny that as we get close to November 2 we become concerned with electoral fraud, the debut of those “Diebold-ical” machines from Ohio , and the spectacle we are giving the rest of the world. Here we are, supposedly a first rate democratic superpower, behaving no better than an abused democracy in a third-world nation.
-in a surprising moment of candor, Diebold Inc. chief executive Walden O'Dell will admit, "Yeah, we probably could have been more subtle about that one, but we decided, what the hell? It's not like anybody can do anything about it." The Democrats will then bend over.

The E vote was thought to speed thinsg up. Linda Schade, a member of TrueVoteMD and the Green Party, begs to differ. While the group failed to block e-voting in Maryland, it is now fighting in court for the right to send monitors into polling precincts around the state.
"The use of paperless electronic voting in Maryland has been marred by serious problems," Schade said. "It is clear these machines need to be watched closely. We now know that in the last election, people received incomplete ballots missing candidates, machines failed to boot, technicians without identification worked on machines making undocumented alterations. The State Board of Elections told the media and the public that the machines worked flawlessly, but since then local boards of elections have reported widespread problems."

compared with electronic vote-rigging. A number of computer experts have testified that they “have been able to hack into both Diebold’s and Sequoia Voting Systems’ voting machines” that are being used in the presidential race. Abbie Waldman Delozier and Vickie Karp, of Black Box Voting and the National Ballot Integrity Project Task Force respectively, confirmed this at a National Press Club conference in Washington in late September. Bev Harris, executive director of Black Box Voting, said: “We are able to use a hidden program for vote manipulation, which resides on Diebold’s election software. This is a hidden feature enabled by a two-digit trigger (not a ‘bug’ or an accidental oversight; it’s there on purpose).” Dr Herbert H Thompson, computer security expert and editor/author of twelve books, including How to Break Software Security, explained how easily an election could be rigged by implanting a virus, while Jeremiah Akin, an independent computer programmer from Riverside, California, has shown how to manipulate Sequoia Voting Systems software just before an election by switching the labels on the names of candidates.

Given the degree of antagonism that has gripped America as a result of Bush’s policies, neither side is prepared to give an inch this time. A number of American commentators have warned of catastrophic consequences if there is no clear-cut winner. America’s system of electoral colleges is also seen as deeply flawed: people do not elect the president directly; in each state the candidate who is “first past the post” takes all the electoral seats. Colorado, with nine electoral college seats, has introduced a proposal to have its seats allocated on the basis of proportional representation. This could lead to legal challenges and the outcome being uncertain for several months.

San Diego County officials were dismayed after the primary to learn that Diebold vote-tabulation software had misawarded thousands of absentee votes for Sen. John Kerry to Rep. Dick Gephardt, who had dropped out of the race.

Josh Cryer · 2004-11-02 13:37:41

Early Exit Polling from DailyKos gives Kerry OH, FL, PA, MI, NM, MN, WI, NH.

Landslide?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/2 … 14333/4849

clark · 2004-11-02 13:43:18

I hope I get to write a poem.

BWhite · 2004-11-02 13:45:36

I hope I get to write a poem.

If so, make sure you give Jon Stewart a mention as the Kerry campaign's most valuable news guy.

Yup. Comedy Central, the most trusted name in news.

= = =

When one sig ain't enough:

Be careful, or I'll do a Tucker Carlson on ya'

clark · 2004-11-02 13:50:33

I watched that Crossfire exchange and loved every minute of it!

Edit: In review of the current numbers, it's still too close in several states. We should know in about 4 hours.

Cobra Commander · 2004-11-02 14:37:37

Heed the lesson of 2000. Don't project a winner before the final count.

clark · 2004-11-02 14:41:16

"Heed the lesson of 2000. Don't project a winner before the final count."

Of Supreme Court justices votes...

Remember, all men are equal, some are more equal than others.

Josh Cryer · 2004-11-02 14:57:41

Bush wasn't ahead by these margins in 2000.

BWhite · 2004-11-02 15:14:53

Latest kos update.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/2 … 161046/605

Turnout percentages are not sequestered until polls close.

Traditional Democratic (no Democrat Luntz BS here) precincts are having much stronger turnout numbers than GOP precincts.

Josh Cryer · 2004-11-02 15:37:03

I told my mom a few nights ago that it'd be a landslide, but I didn't believe it. Really cool.

edit: by "landslide" I really mean "decisive." We just use that word to exaggerate and be dramatic.

Edited By Josh Cryer on 1099431506

Rxke · 2004-11-02 16:14:33

Gawd... Half tha interweb is crawling to a halt, so it feels... most of my fave sites are slooooow, getting worse by the hour...

I guess *a lot* of people are checking lotsa websites...

Arentcha Ammericuns supposed to be TV people? Get of tha interweb! Go watch Fox TV!!!
:;):

Euler · 2004-11-02 16:30:42

Gawd... Half tha interweb is crawling to a halt, so it feels... most of my fave sites are slooooow, getting worse by the hour...

I guess *a lot* of people are checking lotsa websites...
Arentcha Ammericuns supposed to be TV people? Get of tha interweb! Go watch Fox TV!!!

A lot of people are using the web because the networks will not announce exit polling data until the polls close, but you can find them posted on the web.

Euler · 2004-11-02 16:40:21

Kerry's advantage in the exit polls seems to be increasing.
At 4:00 PM Eastern:
Florida:
Kerry 52
Bush 48
Ohio:
Kerry 52
Bush 47
Michigan:
Kerry 51
Bush 48
Pennsylvania:
Kerry 58
Bush 42
Iowa:
Kerry 50
Bush 48
Wisconsin:
Kerry 53
Bush 47
Minnesota:
Kerry 57
Bush 42
New Hampshire:
Kerry 58
Bush 41
Maine:
Kerry 55
Bush 44
New Mexico:
Kerry 49
Bush 49

Rxke · 2004-11-02 16:40:47

I figured that out, CNN has been serving a static page for ages now, only the pics change.

Same for 99% of all 'official' sites.

Think I'd better get some rest, it'll proably be another 36 days before we get the results

Josh Cryer · 2004-11-02 16:47:20

Zogby Final Prediction:

Bush 213
Kerry 311

Gives the popular vote to Bush though.

http://www.zogby.com/]http://www.zogby.com/

BWhite · 2004-11-02 16:51:55

Zogby calls it for Kerry. His website is "unavailable" trampled under a gadzillion hits.

Edit - Kudos to Josh. Its that webmaster magic.

= = =

But watch the recount wars in Florida and Ohio.

clark · 2004-11-02 16:54:22

Anyone know a good site for a video web feed of election coverage? I gots no TVees.

BWhite · 2004-11-02 16:56:56

Anyone know a good site for a video web feed of election coverage? I gots no TVees.

Are you like, French or something?

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