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#151 2021-11-05 21:34:49

tahanson43206
Moderator
Registered: 2018-04-27
Posts: 12,040

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

For SpaceNut re #150

Your post would be correct if you are thinking of physical objects.

However, movies can be made on Mars and shipped to Earth via encrypted radio transmission.  There is almost no shipping cost, and royalties can be earned for decades if the work is good.

An entire series of books has been written on this very subject.

If we set aside the idea of trying to export physical objects, and think instead of what is unique about Mars that can be shipped in electronic form, then we have a great deal of opportunity.

(th)

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#152 2021-11-06 05:25:50

Terraformer
Member
From: Ceres
Registered: 2007-08-27
Posts: 3,560
Website

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

Louis,

Teabags contain 1-3 grams of tea. At 2g per cup, we can get 500 cups out of a kg. If costs are $200/kg, can domestic tea really compete with a price of $0.4 per cup?

That's for a commonly consumed product. What about pharmaceuticals, another high value low mass product? It makes no sense for Mars to focus resources on manufacturing something that can be imported more cheaply. Better to have people doing the high value work and buying stuff in (comparative advantage). Does this make them dependent on Terra? Yes, but that's the problem that every country here has too - there's a tradeoff between economic development and security. Even worse for Mars, which will import all its workers. At least a country can justify tariffs on the basis of increasing domestic employment and rebalancing its economy. On Mars, there won't be those concerns, because no-one will ship people over if there isn't work for them.


"I'm gonna die surrounded by the biggest idiots in the galaxy." - If this forum was a Mars Colony

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#153 2021-11-06 08:12:52

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 7,208

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

Well that's the low end estimate - it could cost a lot more to import tea, and of course you have to consider that as the population grows, it simply won't be possible to import all the foodstuffs. 1000 people consume something like 1000 tons of food over a two year period. So that could be taking up anywhere between  6 and 10 Starships. 10,000 people would need between 60 and 100 Starships every 2 years. Even if tea could theoretically be imported at a price below that of Mars ISRU agriculture, I just doubt there would be cargo space available (because 100 Starships mean perhaps 600 launches during a launch window - that will be straining Earth's launch capacity, I would suggest, especially when you factor all the other high priority imports for a community of 10,000 people...you'd probably have to add in another 20 launches minimum).

But, leaving that aside, let's run with 40 cents per 2 grams. Add on maybe 3 cents for the price of the tea itself, 43 cents per 2 grams. Yes, I don't see why not.  They grow about 4,600 Kgs of tea per hectare on Earth. At $0.43 per Kg that would give $989,000 per hectare of cultivation.

https://www.o-cha.net/english/teacha/cu … ction.html

That's a lot of money to play with. Mars farmers are eventually going to get pretty good at their business, with cost cutting. Who knows how much it would cost to produce 4600 Kgs of tea on Mars? Intuitively I think they will be able to do it for under $215 per kg. $50 per Kg sounds more reasonable to me for Mars ISRU agriculture. Could be cheaper if we master the art of low pressure high CO2 farming under pressurised translucent plastic with reflective mylar screens to boost light and with innovative heating including use of waste heat from industrial processes.




Terraformer wrote:

Louis,

Teabags contain 1-3 grams of tea. At 2g per cup, we can get 500 cups out of a kg. If costs are $200/kg, can domestic tea really compete with a price of $0.4 per cup?

That's for a commonly consumed product. What about pharmaceuticals, another high value low mass product? It makes no sense for Mars to focus resources on manufacturing something that can be imported more cheaply. Better to have people doing the high value work and buying stuff in (comparative advantage). Does this make them dependent on Terra? Yes, but that's the problem that every country here has too - there's a tradeoff between economic development and security. Even worse for Mars, which will import all its workers. At least a country can justify tariffs on the basis of increasing domestic employment and rebalancing its economy. On Mars, there won't be those concerns, because no-one will ship people over if there isn't work for them.

Last edited by louis (2021-11-06 08:51:56)


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#154 2021-11-06 08:19:04

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 26,781

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

Data transmission and downloads are low 10 cents to about a dollar so we are not going to make much on those....

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#155 2021-11-06 09:41:03

tahanson43206
Moderator
Registered: 2018-04-27
Posts: 12,040

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

For SpaceNut re #154

The part of the market you're thinking about is not the segment I am thinking about.

Video is now routinely shown in large theaters, for which patrons pay from $5 to $15 in the US.

Video is also available over cable networks for which subscribers pay a fee.

There may be a segment in which patrons pay for individual movies.  I'm just not familiar with it.

The segment with which I am most familiar is the advertiser funded movie broadcast or cable cast.

As you must surely know, the digital entertainment marketplace runs into the billions of dollars (US) each year.

(th)

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#156 2021-11-06 12:41:23

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 7,208

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

Exactly so!

Every time someone wants to say something about Mars, they'll want a photo or a video. Space X are in business. They won't be giving it away for free and no one else (at least for a few years) will have these images, so they can charge the monopoly price.

tahanson43206 wrote:

For SpaceNut re #150

Your post would be correct if you are thinking of physical objects.

However, movies can be made on Mars and shipped to Earth via encrypted radio transmission.  There is almost no shipping cost, and royalties can be earned for decades if the work is good.

An entire series of books has been written on this very subject.

If we set aside the idea of trying to export physical objects, and think instead of what is unique about Mars that can be shipped in electronic form, then we have a great deal of opportunity.

(th)


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#157 2021-11-06 16:33:59

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 26,781

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

Cost of netfix monthly fee a low 9 to 20 range for importing to have movie night, cost of what you might charge for anything transmitted will be less...hulu charges low 6 to 65 which includes tv...

Do we pay for any of the public domain images or video's now so why would we do so once man is on the surface?

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#158 2021-11-06 18:28:20

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 7,208

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

NASA don't charge. Space X will unless they have lost all business sense. If I was directing Space X's media policy I'd offer some free highlights to news corporations. But otherwise, still images and videos would either be charged for or be copyright as part of programme content. These images will be iconic and continue to generate income for decades to come.

There is huge revenue to be earned from these images and video.

I think around the planet there will be a large number of people really interested in Mars and prepared to pay for Mars-related material through subscriptions and so on. Obviously not all 7.5 billion of us. But it only takes 100 million to be sufficiently interested to pay maybe $30 each year  on average for books, TV channels, magazines and so on, and that's already $3 billion. But I think maybe 10 million around the globe  will be very interested. They may well be prepared to subscribe to Mars TV channels for instance, subscribe to monthly magazine, internet channels and so on. Many will become interested in the idea of moving to Mars to live there, whether or not they actually go...here on Earth many people watch property programmes like "Escape to the Country" even though they never leave suburbia.
Maybe they will be prepared to spend $100 or even $500 per annum in various formats.


SpaceNut wrote:

Cost of netfix monthly fee a low 9 to 20 range for importing to have movie night, cost of what you might charge for anything transmitted will be less...hulu charges low 6 to 65 which includes tv...

Do we pay for any of the public domain images or video's now so why would we do so once man is on the surface?


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#159 2021-11-06 18:53:09

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 26,781

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

For the starship SpaceX plans to use its Starlink internet on Starship orbital launch to demonstrate connection quality

Which is fine since the system looks towards earth but once you get to the other side of that orbital path these are not receiving anything as they are facing the wrong way to do so.

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#160 2021-11-06 19:49:49

tahanson43206
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Registered: 2018-04-27
Posts: 12,040

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

For SpaceNut re #159

It is possible an Internet source gave you incorrect information about the design of the Starlink satellites.

Can you find a source that says the satellites are "looking down" as you suggest?

It is my understanding the satellites are omnidirectional, because they have to talk to each other as well as to base stations and to customers on the ground.

I don't have an prior information, so am tossing this question out with an open mind.

I suspect (but don't know) that you will be surprised by what you find when you did a bit deeper into the design of those devices.

(th)

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#161 2021-11-06 19:53:49

tahanson43206
Moderator
Registered: 2018-04-27
Posts: 12,040

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

For Lewis re #158

Thanks for picking up on the potential of an all-digital economy between Mars and other locations in the Solar System.

The idea of moving physical objects back and forth is ** so ** 15th Century!

Side note: I just noticed the editor in FluxBB is offering a grammar checker.  I wonder if this is a feature of Edge, coming into play.

I normally use Chrome on Linux, but occasionally let Microsoft Edge handle a NewMars post when Windows is open.

(th)

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#162 2021-11-06 20:04:24

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 26,781

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

They are transmitting to earth bound sites after receiving the transmission from earth to redirect whats available to the customer on earth.

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#163 2021-11-06 20:27:12

tahanson43206
Moderator
Registered: 2018-04-27
Posts: 12,040

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

For SpaceNut Re #182 and prior....

I believe we have drifted off topic.

A discussion of how Starlink antennas work would fit better in Science and Technology.

(th)

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#164 2021-11-10 10:06:35

Calliban
Member
From: Northern England, UK
Registered: 2019-08-18
Posts: 2,221

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

Tea would need to be grown in pressurised, heated greenhouses on Mars.  It isn't just a case of overcoming transport costs.  Even if transport costs from Earth to Mars, were zero and vice versa, the difficulties imposed by the Martian environment would make it more expensive to carry out any activity there compared to any location on Earth.

One advantage Mars does have that is tangible: A much shallower gravity well.  The propulsive effort required to reach Earth orbit from Mars surface, is lower than it is from Earth surface.  And a large fraction of the propulsion can be low-thrust.  Mars has a definite gravitational competitive advantage in producing finished goods and commodities that are intended for use in any location outside of Earth's atmosphere.  Ultimately, even Mars grown food may be cheaper in Earth orbit, than Earth food that must be lifted through a 10+km/s delta-V at high thrust.  That is the singular advantage that a Mars colony can exploit in terms of producing exports for profit.  And aside from novelty value, it is the only advantage that a Mars colony has over an analogous colony built in Earth's polar regions.  If you are looking for export opportunities, this is predominantly where they are to be found.

There may be a few other niches, where direct export to Earth surface may be competitive.  Deuterium, for example.  Mars also contains meteorite materials in a geologically unaltered state.  These contain platinum group metals in higher abundance than terrestrial ores.  But by and large, there are few export opportunities to Earth surface.  I'm not convinced that Mars will become a prime filming location.  CGI can replicate the surface quite convincingly.

Last edited by Calliban (2021-11-10 10:15:45)


"Plan and prepare for every possibility, and you will never act. It is nobler to have courage as we stumble into half the things we fear than to analyse every possible obstacle and begin nothing. Great things are achieved by embracing great dangers."

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#165 2021-11-10 11:35:53

louis
Member
From: UK
Registered: 2008-03-24
Posts: 7,208

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

I don't think anyone's suggesting exporting tea to Earth from Mars. But importing tea from Earth to Mars will be very expensive if the transport cost is say $200 per kg (and that may be a low estimate for the next few decades). I think we will be able to grow tea on Mars at well under $200 per kg. So that is another area where Mars ISRU commercial agriculture will win out. Different with things like meat where it will probably be easier to import the meat. Yes it's going to be very expensive but probably not as expensive as if you tried to farm cattle on Mars for instance.

I never suggested Mars would be a prime filming location if you mean making movies. But obviously for documentaries, and providing material for a Mars TV channel lots of filming will take place on the surface. Universities back on Earth will pay good money for access to up-close videos of the surface  and geological features. Adverts will also be filmed on Mars.  Having a car drive around on Mars will be a story in itself and will reinforce the advertising.  Yes you could fake the ad but it's not the same as having it feature in a news item. Broadcasts from Mars will I believe become a staple of news back on Earth. I can just see the news agencies being hungry for Mars stories e.g.: "And how about this - the first ever football match on Mars."  First evernews stories will be pushed out by the Mars Corporation as a way of raising revenue and also advertising the colony back on Earth.  Lots of companies and organisations will want to "plant their flag" so to speak on Mars. Banks will want to have the first ATM and open the first branch on Mars. It will get in the news. Organisations like the IOC, FIFA, WHO, and so on will likely want to establish a presence of some sort on Mars. This might sound a bit fanciful at first but it makes sense the more you think about it. The Pope will want to send someone!  All these people start to add up.  Within a few years there will be hundreds of people and they will all need transit,  life support, medical care and accommodation - so guaranteed revenue for the Mars Corporation.

Calliban wrote:

Tea would need to be grown in pressurised, heated greenhouses on Mars.  It isn't just a case of overcoming transport costs.  Even if transport costs from Earth to Mars, were zero and vice versa, the difficulties imposed by the Martian environment would make it more expensive to carry out any activity there compared to any location on Earth.

One advantage Mars does have that is tangible: A much shallower gravity well.  The propulsive effort required to reach Earth orbit from Mars surface, is lower than it is from Earth surface.  And a large fraction of the propulsion can be low-thrust.  Mars has a definite gravitational competitive advantage in producing finished goods and commodities that are intended for use in any location outside of Earth's atmosphere.  Ultimately, even Mars grown food may be cheaper in Earth orbit, than Earth food that must be lifted through a 10+km/s delta-V at high thrust.  That is the singular advantage that a Mars colony can exploit in terms of producing exports for profit.  And aside from novelty value, it is the only advantage that a Mars colony has over an analogous colony built in Earth's polar regions.  If you are looking for export opportunities, this is predominantly where they are to be found.

There may be a few other niches, where direct export to Earth surface may be competitive.  Deuterium, for example.  Mars also contains meteorite materials in a geologically unaltered state.  These contain platinum group metals in higher abundance than terrestrial ores.  But by and large, there are few export opportunities to Earth surface.  I'm not convinced that Mars will become a prime filming location.  CGI can replicate the surface quite convincingly.


Let's Go to Mars...Google on: Fast Track to Mars blogspot.com

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#166 2022-09-16 06:12:39

Mars_B4_Moon
Member
Registered: 2006-03-23
Posts: 4,782

Re: Possible Martian Export Products?

Joe Biden selling Biotechnology, cures for cancer and the US Moon mission?

Biden promotes US biotech, cancer fight in new 'Moonshot'
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/biden-promote … 02956.html

If people will be born there and kids on Mars with limited resources then I think Mars might be developing like Nepal for many years, it will perhaps have an economy, tourism, art exports, people sending electronic coin or money there.

Nations may invest to do something first, a contest of scientific corporations might have exclusive finds on research, a new Space group or Company might have bragging rights about a Buggy that was the most durable, a Robotic sport of climbing and driving contests, the AI machines will boast about their output and local factory manufacture and printing of Heliostats or other tools and devices later to be advertised and sold on Earth.

http://www.promes.cnrs.fr/MOYENS/Concen … ateur1.htm

Moons of Mars might one day deliver supply to outer worlds on Europa, Titan.

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2022-09-16 06:16:10)

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