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Good to have support for the 1g argument ... thanks nebob2!
I think the idea is to leave the spent booster stage in orbit around Mars while the expedition lands in the Hab.
500 days later, the Earth Return Vehicle leaves the surface and docks with the booster. They both leave Mars together and the counterweight performs the same function for the ERV on the way home as it did for the Hab on the outward leg.
If, as you say, it's feasible to reduce the transit time to 120 days, so much the better. But wouldn't that mean a trade off as far as allowable mass is concerned?
While we're on the subject, does anyone know roughly how long a transit would take using nuclear thermal engines?
Makes perfect sense to me, too!
Hey, Phobos!
Haven't heard from you in a little while. Good to see you back ol' buddy!
I'm not sure about all this hiking on Europa stuff, though! You'll need to have a quiet word with the material manufacturers first, I think.
Hi Josh!
Thanks for the encouraging words about finding Mars next year. Don't worry, I'll be out looking for it ... colour-blind or not!!
And now, thanks to Cindy, I might even be able to find Antares somewhere in the vicinity, too! Or will it be somewhere different in 6 months?
:0
Many thanks, Cindy, for the magnificent close-ups of our glorious star!!
"Gorgeous...molten gold!'' is absolutely spot on! And, to borrow yet another Cindyism ... "shine on, baby!", YEAH!!
Hi everybody!
I read recently, for what it's worth here, that the 98% chimp DNA thing may be wrong. Some researchers now believe that the figure is closer to 95%.
I think AltToWar might have been disagreeing with something I said in a post about 1 page back - that humans are a flawed species. I didn't mean flawed as in original sin, I meant that we're carrying a lot of unfortunate baggage from our simian ancestry.
Here in Australia, we have a substantial problem with 'broken homes' and single parents trying to raise children. Actually, 25% of all Australian children are born outside of marriage these days. ( Before anybody goes into attack mode, I state here and now that I am not an orthodox adherent of any religion and do not have an axe to grind about sex outside marriage or whatever. All I care about is that children have a stable and loving environment in which to grow up.)
Time and time again, we get news about another child battered to death by a 'de facto' husband. The de facto is not the child's father but lives with the mother. We never hear of biological fathers battering their biological offspring.
Aetius is correct when he outlines the kind of appalling savagery of which chimpanzees are capable. I distinctly remember seeing a fascinating documentary which overturned the popular notion that chimps are gentle guileless creatures.
One of the worst aspects of their behaviour, which stuck in my mind for its sheer callousness, was that of males towards females nursing another male's child. If a female is breast-feeding young, she is (a) infertile and (b) not interested in sex anyhow. In order to successfully mate with that female, the male needs to get rid of the baby ... and he does!! The standard method is to snatch the child away and bash its brains out on a tree trunk or a rock. After a brief period of mourning, the female is then ready to be inseminated by the simicidal suitor and will then disseminate his genes, not those of the previous father!
Every time I see news on TV of another baby killed by its 'de facto' father, I think of chimpanzees.
Chimps also engage in border warfare with other bands of chimps, do all those other things Aetius mentioned, and always have a dominant alpha male who exercises power by brute force.
The parallels with humanity are striking. Anyone who chooses to ignore these parallels and pretends they don't apply to modern mankind, is 'playing with a short deck' and can never fully comprehend the human condition.
Some of us here at New Mars won't like this assertion and will attempt to deny its importance. I understand your motives and sympathise. It's very disquieting to see just how thin a veneer of civilisation that 5% of our DNA provides, and how close to the animal kingdom we really are.
Saddam Hussein is a dominant alpha male. When push comes to shove, so is Al Gore (however much he may try to deny it), and so is George W. Bush. These people haven't arrived where they are by being gentle and self-effacing. Politics is the new jungle and the new chimps have new weapons and new tactics ... but the rules have barely changed.
Just because I'm enough of a realist to recognise its existence, doesn't mean to say that I condone all of this chimpanzee behaviour. I don't condone imperialism and I don't condone the exploitation of the weak by the strong. There are better and far more productive ways of making us all better off! Beyond a healthy level of competition, the best tactic by far for humanity's future is sensible cooperation and teamwork. Only a neanderthal could seriously suggest otherwise.
In other words, I'm with Cindy. It may only be 5%, but Vive la difference!!
Apologies Dickbill!
You're right, I think, that maybe a majority of people believe we can get away with less than 1g of artificial gravity. I think Dr. Zubrin tends to favour a small radius of rotation and only 0.38g (i.e. Martian equivalent gravity.) I can't recall the figures and can't be bothered doing the calculations right now, but I think he was talking about a metal truss structure with a diameter of 22 metres (no cable).
Your idea of a 30 metre diameter inflatable structure providing 0.5g at less than 4 rpm would probably work well. I've read a little about human tolerance for a rotating environment and we do, apparently, adapt fairly quickly to anything up to about 4 rpm.
And your ideas for the self-sealing material are very interesting, though I know little about materials science so I can't make any sensible comments as to its viability.
If we're looking at a Mars Direct scenario though, we have at least 180 days each way plus 500 days on Mars. Dr. Zubrin's design would mean the astronauts would effectively be in 0.38g for 860 days, or 2.35 years.
I don't have any idea (and I suspect nobody else does either) whether 0.38g is sufficient to prevent loss of bone-density. My guess is that it won't be.
But a 180lb male (I'm sticking to Imperial for the sake of my American cousins) would rapidly become used to weighing 68lbs. Every muscle in his body would adjust to this new situation by shrinking and losing tone. What's worse is the fact that every pint of his blood would weigh only 38% of its Earthly weight, so his heart will get used to much less work than it had to do back home, and weaken accordingly.
Despite rigorous exercise regimes, which are very difficult to maintain enthusiasm for (ask the Mir cosmonauts if you don't believe me), I have serious doubts about how well the astronauts will cope when they get back to Earth. I've expressed this fear before by asking other New Mars contributors to imagine suddenly weighing 2.63 times their normal weight. Let's go back to our 180lb male for a comparison. When he lands back on Terra Firma, he will think he weighs 473lbs!! That's how it will feel ... to every muscle in his body, including his heart.
I think that's going to mean big trouble.
Your 0.5g will probably help somewhat, but personally I don't believe it'll be enough. I emphasise I'm not a physiologist, but common sense tells me we're likely to have problems.
I think I'm probably in a minority of people who advocate providing a full 1g of artificial gravity for most of the year spent in transit. This is the ideal scenario which gives the crew the best possible chance of returning in good shape.
The research done so far on human adaptation to rotation suggests that up to 1 rpm, the Coriolis effects are very mild and adaptation times into it, and more importantly at Mars, out of it, are brief.
In order to achieve the best of all possibilities, 1g and 1 rpm, you need that 900 metre radius of rotation. And for that you need a cable and a counterweight. This is why I argue strongly for this option. It's the arrangement I'd prefer myself if I were making the trip.
Using a spent booster stage as the counterweight on the other end of the cable also has another incidental, but important, advantage ... radiation protection. If scientists anticipate a solar flare, the Hab and counterweight can be spun down and winched together with the booster stage between the Hab and the Sun for extra shielding. One of the booster stage bulkheads could even be beefed up a little with this protection role in mind.
Any thoughts?
Hi Dickbill!
I agree with you about the mathematics of the article I linked to. There's been a major foul up somewhere - and I apologise for not checking the figures.
My main purpose was to indicate how uncomfortable fast rotation rates can be, but it never occurred to me that our correspondent (the author of the piece) might have slept through mathematics classes in highschool!
I agree that 3.35 metres radius and 5 rpm will give you no more than 0.093g. And no amount of vector analysis is going to give you 1.45g in any direction!
In order to get a vector acceleration of 1.45g at the floor near the wall (with 1g in the vertical of course), you'd need a lateral centripetal acceleration of 1.05g. This translates into a rotation rate of nearly 17rpm. And to stand up in that environment, you'd need to make an angle of about 44 degrees with the floor!!
None of these figures even remotely resembles the ones our author quoted, so I don't know where he went wrong with his numbers.
Sorry! ???
But nevertheless, Coriolis effects in space will be more troublesome the smaller we make the radius of rotation of our spacecraft or the more artificial gravity we want to produce. The unpleasantness reported in the article is accurate, even if the numbers aren't!
Hi Byron!
I couldn't agree more with your frustration that we're not doing much more in Low Earth Orbit to investigate the effects of long-term exposure to Coriolis effects and, especially, to 0.38g.
Your scenario of starting at 1g and reducing to 0.38g as the Hab nears Mars is the one I favour. And spinning up to 1g as soon as practicable on the way home is the way to go, in my opinion.
That way, the astronauts are kept in normal Earth gravity for the maximum time possible, which must be better for them in the long term.
My notion of the ideal situation is a cable 1.8 kilometres long joining the Hab and counterweight (i.e. a spin radius of 900 metres), and a rate of spin of 1 rpm. This should give a supremely comfortable impression of normal Earth gravity with virtually none of the unpleasant side effects of rotation.
I visualise low thrust ion engines being used to maintain tension on the cable as the Hab separates from the counterweight. These engines could be shut down only as the two masses are 'spun up' using other ion engines, and as the rotation itself becomes sufficient to keep the cable taut. Using this technique, I foresee no difficulties with the cable getting "all tangled up".
I've suggested ion engines because we know how to make them, they exert a gentle and continuous thrust perfect for spinning up and spinning down, and the mass of fuel required would be small.
As far as the cable itself is concerned, I really think worrying about it breaking is taking nervousness to unrealistic extremes. People enjoy rides at carnivals all the time and hardly give a thought to how many things could go wrong and possibly kill them. Some people even jump out of perfectly serviceable aircraft ... on purpose ( ) ... and plunge Earthwards, hoping that a carefully packed pile of material and string will pop out of a sack on their backs and prevent them encountering the ground at high velocity!! Haven't you ever stood on the 30th floor of a skyscraper, this time with just a glass wall between you and that high velocity encounter with the ground?! And didn't you ever wonder about the glass breaking? But how often does that happen?
Life's a risk. As they say: Living is a life-shortening experience!
There are so many risks involved in a crewed Mars mission. The chances of the cable breaking would be so far down my list of things-to-worry-about as to be completely trivial.
While I was net browsing the other day, I came across this interesting site.
Apparently someone's come up with a new type of 'radiation proof' material. Unlike previous types, which only blocked alpha particles, the new one blocks alpha and beta particles, X-rays, and even low level Gamma radiation!!
If it works as advertised, why not line the Hab with it, make the marsonauts' overalls out of it, even line their sleeping accommodation with more of it, and make the blankets out of it too?!!
We might be able to reduce radiation damage to very low levels, thus solving one of the biggest problems with crewed Mars missions.
AltToWar asks:-
So what your saying is, As far as Imperialist Expantionists States go, America aint that bad?
Compared to Hitler, we are a-ok?
Yeah! In its crudest form, that's what I'm saying.
For all of recorded history, there has always been a dominant empire of one sort or another. If there was more than one at any particular time, it was only because they didn't know of each other's existence, or lacked the logistics to wage war over the distance between them.
My opinion is that such behaviour - the dominance thing - is rooted in our primate genetic heritage. There always has to be a dominant alpha male. And, on a larger scale, there always has to be a dominant alpha nation.
However enlightened some, or even the majority, of us become, our politics always take the same shape - generation after generation. It's always a struggle for power between one man and another, or one nation and another. Power and wealth ... it's as simple as that.
And however outwardly caring and humane our political systems may be on paper, however grandiose our speeches about peace and sharing may be, it still comes down to the actions and motives of a few men (usually) in positions of power, or a few men desperately seeking positions of power.
At best our political institutions can blunt the worst effects of such power struggles in most cases. But it's always a containment exercise. We're always battling to keep the evil genie inside the bottle.
Am I a cynic? I suppose I must be. Though I could attempt to take refuge from that accusation in the usual trick of claiming to be a realist!
Empires have risen and fallen, kings and dictators have fought and schemed, and wars have raged over and over through every century in human history. Surely you must allow me to claim to be a realist if I say it's just us - humans. We're the problem! The evil genie isn't really in the bottle, it's in all of us individually. Some of us can control it by an effort of will and an ability to see the 'bigger picture', but most of us can't.
And the worst part of it is the perpetuation of a situation whereby the people, even in a democracy, who attain power, are the people who crave it most. And they're just the people you don't want in positions of authority because they're driven more by primal instincts than by reason.
Getting to the main point ("Break out the champagne!", I hear you all cry in unison! ), my belief is that the human condition I've described will never change. We're a flawed species. Whichever nation you examine in detail, you'll find monstrous acts of barbarity hiding in its history ... any nation!
I don't condone Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but then I don't know enough about what went through Truman's head when he OK'd it. Were his decision processes based entirely on a malicious and blood-thirsty desire to incinerate women and children? Maybe. Did he make the decision lightly? I don't know. I like to think there must have been reasons beyond simple mindless vengeance, but maybe there weren't.
In any event, in a world bedevilled for millenia by one ruthless empire after another, I see no reason to change my opinion that the current American Empire is easily the most benign we've ever seen.
Even if its absolute power eventually corrupts it so thoroughly that it decays from within (the usual fate of empires), all we can look forward to is the rise of another empire to replace it. And we mightn't be so lucky next time!
Hi Cindy!
In addition to various other faults and crimes of omission, and unlike your good self, I have never made any attempt to study the stars in any detail.
I know very basic stuff, such as the Milky Way, Orion's Belt, and the Southern Cross. But otherwise I just look for meteors occasionally.
If you asked me to identify Jupiter in the night sky, I wouldn't know where to look! And I've never located the constellations either - maybe because I could never understand how the ancients managed to see such creatures in a few points of light (no imagination, I guess! ).
And, worst of all, being mildly colour blind (genetically defective ), I have enormous difficulty in seeing colours in the starlight. So all the stars look pretty much the same whitish colour to me, which makes even finding Mars tricky!! (Oh, the shame of it all! )
If I've ever seen the Magellanic Clouds, I wouldn't have been aware I was looking at them. I was looking at a smudge of light with feint stars embedded in it last week, but I supposed that was the Pleiades - I wasn't sure. Maybe I should buy a star-map and really study it or something!
Apparently, here in Australia the best time to view the Magellanic Clouds is in our spring. i.e. about October.
As I understand it, Cindy, you pay considerably more attention to astronomy than I do. And your knowledge of chile rellenos obviously far outstrips mine too!
One day, when I'm in your neck of the woods, I'm going to call on you to educate me in both subjects!! If you could stand such a dull student.
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Yeah ... probably.
But then, it's the only way to be. Leastways, I enjoy it!
I heard we taste like pork.
:0
Thanks, Byron! But maybe we should get back to the proper thread now we've educated each other on our respective countries' social structure.
C.C. and Cindy are right, in my view. They've both hit the nail right on the head.
Absolute power corrupts absolutely. And the Roman and Nazi systems are a testimony to that - both were brutal.
But nobody has ever had the kind of military power now wielded by America. And yet U.S. policies, though often self-serving, are still remarkably benign.
I still marvel at how the U.S., between 1945 and 1949, was the only country on Earth with a nuclear capability and never used it. You can be quite certain that the U.S.S.R. under Stalin, had it been given the same advantage, would have wasted no time in annexing all of Europe and God knows what else!
It's hard to imagine who else you might trust with the kind of power America has today. Sure the U.S. has its faults, but anyone who gives the world hamburgers, jazz, rock 'n' roll, the Chevy Bel-Air, and manned moon-landings, can't be all bad!!
I think Einstein was a little hard on himself with this 'greatest blunder of my life' thing.
When Einstein introduced the Cosmological Constant, everyone thought the universe was stationary ... the big bang hadn't been thought of. With all those star systems out there exerting gravitational influence on one another, why hadn't the whole thing collapsed on itself?
Einstein, using the best information available to him at the time, introduced a kind of negative gravity into the list of properties of the space/time continuum which would account for the anomaly.
It was only when the expansion of the universe was discovered that the need for the Cosmological Constant evaporated. So what? Scientific hypotheses are there to be demolished ... everything in science is up for grabs, by definition. Anything that is not falsifiable (such as a religious belief) is not science.
Lately, of course, with the discovery that the rate of expansion of the universe is actually increasing rather than decreasing, the concept of negative gravity in the fabric of space has re-emerged. I think they call it Quintessence, and they've decided it must have always been there but was probably swamped by normal gravity when the universe was more compact. As the universe expands and the gravitational influence between stars diminishes accordingly, this 'dark energy' is coming into its own and accelerating the expansion. (That's my understanding of the current state of play but I'm willing to be corrected on any of this.)
So, in a sense, Einstein's Cosmological Constant has had a renaissance! Even though he invoked it for all the wrong reasons, he still managed to get it right ... AGAIN!!!
Thanks again, Byron, for your unwavering support of the great Australian way of life! You're right in saying we have a lot going for us in very many ways ... in fact, we call ourselves 'the lucky country' (and actually believe it, too! )
Most of us regard a full-time job (if you can track one of 'em down these days, working for a boss who hasn't been stung by the Unfair Dismissal legislation yet! ) as a 37.5 hour week. We have automatic annual paid leave entitlement of 4 weeks. Unsocial hours usually attract a time-and-a-half rate of pay, unless the job is obviously just one of those jobs which are, of necessity, carried out when everyone else is partying or sleeping. (But then the rates of pay tend to take that into account when you sign up.) Major public holidays such as Christmas and Easter Sunday attract double-time or even double-time-and-a-half pay rates, and I have heard of triple-time being paid but can't remember the circumstances of that.
Every employer is required by law to pay 9% of whatever s/he is paying an employee into the retirement superannuation scheme of the employee's choice. This is above, beyond, and separate from the wage itself. And every employer must, by law, pay a Workcover premium for each employee as insurance in case the employee is injured at work. Though this in no way excuses an employer for not providing a safe workplace - they can be, and are, sued for failing to do 'what any reasonable person in the same circumstances might be expected to do to ensure the safety of employees'.
If feasible, no worker is expected to work more than 4 hours without a 15 minute rest break.
After 10 years of service to the same organisation (15 years in some States), an employee is entitled to 3 months long-service leave on full pay. In some cases this can be negotiated and taken as, say, 6 months leave on half pay.
In some States, they have leave-loading. too. This means that your vacation pay (which is paid to you before you go on leave) is boosted 15% to help with your vacation expenses. In other words, if your gross pay before tax is normally $500 a week and you're going away on vacation for two weeks, your gross pay for the period of that vacation will be $1150 instead of $1000.
Also, there are various sick-leave entitlements which guarantee full pay for certain periods, depending on the industry and how long you've worked for your employer. (The problem with this being that some Australians regard the sick-leave as 'beach-leave' and tend to take the full number of days as a kind of extra vacation right for when the weather's good! )
In many ways, the above work conditions are a good thing. But there's a price for everything and, in Australia's case, it's national productivity. If making money is the point of the game, and I appreciate that for many people it isn't, then Australia is probably less efficient than America.
Many small business owners are hardly any better off than the people they employ, yet they have risked their own money to set up a business and find themselves in a nightmare of legislation - all designed to protect the employee. The myth still persists, though, that: "Oh, you own your own business ... you must be doing really well!" In Australia, that is very often not the case. And many who would otherwise start a business and employ a few people, end up backing away and saying: "It's really not worth it."
Compared to the U.S.A., it may be a sustainable argument that Australia is pretty much a socialist country. There are many laws to shield citizens from the worst excesses of capitalism and there really is an atmosphere of egalitarianism in much of our social structure ... something we express as "A fair go for everybody, mate!"
We're an irreverent mob at heart and too many 'airs and graces' will earn you the reputation of being "a bit up yourself". I confess I don't know exactly how the expression came about, but it means you have an exaggerated sense of your own worth or importance! The typical Aussie has something I think I've mentioned here before: An inbuilt, well-developed bullsh** detector!!
Some people say the Canadian outlook is about the closest you'll find to the Australian way of looking at life, but I don't know enough Canadians to be sure about that. Although I've certainly liked all the ones I've met so far!!
One of the drawbacks of this egalitarianism is a tendency toward quite spiteful treatment of 'the wealthy' and the development of what is known as 'the politics-of-envy' ... an 'us-and-them' attitude which I think is probably counter-productive. It leads to the 'tall poppy syndrome', which basically means that, if you do too well, you should be cut down to size - a philosophy which tends to encourage mediocrity in my opinion.
Such thinking has led to people on quite modest incomes being regarded as 'wealthy' and taxed accordingly. Anyone earning $50,000 p.a or more falls into this category. If your taxable income exceeds this figure, you lose 42 cents of every dollar over that amount. Until you get to $60,000, when you start losing 47 cents in every dollar. (Plus the universal 1.5% Medicare Levy, which, if you don't have private health insurance, and you earn $50,000+, goes up to 2.5%).
What income do you have to reach in America before you incur a marginal tax rate of 48.5%?
Our work conditions are pretty good and our social security system is generous, but the price is high taxation and low incentive to achieve.
There's always a catch, isn't there?!
Thanks for the compliment about being a great boss, Aetius. But the fact is, I could never really be a boss, as such.
I just end up being friends with everybody! Most people seem to like such a working environment and respond well to it (lucky for me ... because I don't think I could be any different if I tried anyhow! ) ... but at least one person took advantage of the situation. I guess you can't help bad luck!
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Hi Dickbill!
I enjoyed "Mission to Mars" too. The scenery was excellent and, unlike you, I quite liked the storyline, too. But then I'm a sucker for science fiction movies, despite all the little mistakes they tend to make!
The rotating cylinder they used for artificial gravity looked so neat and seemed to work so well, I can see why you find the idea attractive. If only it were that simple!
The trouble lies with the small radius of such a set-up. With a small radius, you need to spin the craft quickly in order to achieve the kind of g-forces we're looking for.
With high rates of spin, you encounter big problems with the Coriolis effect. It's this effect which makes it obvious to the occupants of such a spaceship that the 'gravity' they're experiencing isn't real ... the effect including strange sensations when you turn your head or bend over to pick something up, and the fact that when you drop something, it falls sideways as well as 'down'!
I dug up this article on google.
It's pretty old (1989), but the principle hasn't changed and it gives a fairly vivid description of what Coriolis effects at high rates of rotation must feel like ... not very pleasant!
The article ends by saying the worst of the Coriolis problem can be avoided by using a tether and making the radius of rotation much larger, thus reducing the required rate of rotation.
This is fine, but it goes on to say it will take another 10 years before we iron out the developmental problems of such a system for lengthy crewed missions. Well ... it's been 13 years since then ... and we haven't even started yet!!
:angry:
Very interesting, Alexander!
There seems to be an upsurge in interest in this field (Oops .. sorry, no pun intended! ) which I find very encouraging. I can't think of anything which would make more difference to humanity's future advancement and well-being than control of gravity.
Star Trek here we come ... I hope!! ???
Fascinating image, Josh! Thankyou.
And I think Byron is absolutely right in his response to Cindy's questions. I think there's more water in the Martian regolith than we know ... far more than even the most optimistic estimates so far made on the strength of Odyssey data. (I could be totally wrong, I suppose, but I doubt it in this case.)
Terraforming should release much of this water and establish a surface/atmospheric hydrological cycle again. The poles are never likely to be warm enough to melt the caps completely and they should actually be bigger, as Byron suggests, because of extra precipitation. Our greatest problem being controlling just how big they do get!!
As an aside, I don't know that Earth's polar caps are really "of importance in maintaining our ecological health", as Cindy phrased it.
We are in what is called an Ice Epoch at present, which is a series of ice ages separated by brief interglacials. The last ice age ended about 10,000 years ago, and we are currently at the tail end of an interglacial which is well overdue to collapse into the next ice age.
An ice epoch is defined as a period of time during which there is a permanent ice cap at either pole. For most of its history, Earth has been without permanent ice caps. A permanent ice cap at even one pole is unusual for Earth, and to have permanent caps at both poles is a rare event, probably brought about by the present arrangement of continental plates.
Certainly the removal of our polar ice caps would herald enormous climatic and ecological upheavals, which would play havoc with our comfortably predictable lifestyle. In fact, if it happened suddenly enough (which is most unlikely), much of the human population would probably die and we might well be returned to a kind of dark age of economic and scientific stagnation. But that doesn't mean Earth's ecosystem as a whole would necessarily suffer any significant long-term effects. It would simply return to a pattern more familiar to it, without the ice caps!
This is one of the reasons why I don't lose too much sleep over global warming. Earth's present cold climate is an aberration. Earth's average temperature is normally much higher than it is today and there has never been a runaway greenhouse effect. (Or, obviously, we wouldn't be here discussing it!! )
A recent study, reported in New Scientist magazine (a publication which usually toes the line as regards global warming angst), predicts that if warming proceeds according to predictions over the next 50-100 years, it will result in a 16% increase in world agricultural production ... not from higher CO2 levels, but from longer growing seasons.
Remember, we're long overdue to plunge into the next ice age in the series. A little bit of extra CO2 in the atmosphere might help to fend off what would be a far far greater catastrophe for the human race - ice sheets across most of Europe, Asia, and the continental U.S.A.!
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I'm hoping as hard as I can!!
All fingers and all toes are crossed for this one!
Yes, Dicktice, acronyms without explanations can be frustrating to the uninitiated!
Fortunately, RobertDyck was patient enough to come back to me and explain that EELV means Evolutionary Expendable Launch Vehicle.
You're right when you say you can't go 'Back' after clicking on a link. The trick is to simply click on the little cross at the top right-hand extremity of your screen, and you'll be returned to New Mars immediately.
No, Dicktice. There's no corruption at this site.
The star system relates purely to the number of posts you make.
But join the Mars Society anyway!
As most of you probably know, there is a theory that much of Earth's water came from an influx of comets, rather than mostly from outgassing.
Although this is a controversial theory, there has been an increase in the evidence in its favour lately. Some scientists think Earth is constantly being pelted with small 'snowball' comets, one of the chief protagonists being Louis Frank, professor of physics at the University of Iowa.
Satellite observations of 'atmospheric holes', 50 to 100 kilometres across, fit in with theories that a 20-40 tonne snowball comet hits our atmosphere every 3 seconds. Enough to add an inch of water to the whole planetary surface every 20,000 years. Over 4.5 billion years, such an influx would have brought enough water to produce all of our oceans.
What you have just read is the brainchild of highly intelligent and highly qualified scientists. From here on, all you'll get is the hypothesising of a rank amateur ... me!!
I'm trying to extrapolate from the situation in Earth's region of the solar system, to that of Mars. And I've had to make a few assumptions along the way.
First of all, I've assumed that the number of snowballs in the space near Mars is roughly equal to the number around Earth. But Mars' mass, at 10% of Earth's, should mean only 1/10th the number of snowballs gets pulled in to hit the atmosphere. However, the surface area of Mars is only 28.3% that of Earth, so the rate at which water should accumulate on the surface is about 0.1/0.283, or 0.35 times the rate for Earth.
One inch every 20,000 years translates to 1 kilometre every 790 million years for Earth. This means a global layer of water for Mars of 1 kilometre every 2.26 billion years.
But of course this water should, if ambient temperatures allowed, accumulate in the low lying regions, which constitute about 40% of the surface (i.e. excluding the cratered southern highlands and the Tharsis Bulge). Thus, in the past 2.26 billion years alone, the last half of Mars' existence, enough water could have arrived to provide a northern ocean and Hellas Sea with an average depth of 2.5 kilometres!!
This completely ignores any water which Mars possessed originally, and which was outgassed through volcanism in the first 1-2 billion years when Mars' interior was hotter than today. And it also ignores the snowball comet influx during the first 2.26 billion years of the planet's existence.
Even if we assume that outgassing provided only a modest 1 kilometre depth of water in the lowland areas, the cometary water would add enough to provide up to 6 kilometres of water in those same areas over the whole of Martian history!!
Most authorities I've read about, seem to think that Mars still has most of the water it started out with. Some believe that impact blasts and atmospheric hydrodynamic escape are unlikely to cause much more than a 10% loss over geological time periods.
Even if we allow a very generous factor of, say, 1/3rd for losses, it would seem possible that Mars still has enough water in the polar caps and the regolith to fill the lowland areas to an average depth of about 4 kilometres!!
We still don't know for sure just how much water Odyssey detected in the regolith of the Martian southern hemisphere because the instrument operates only in the topmost metre of the 'soil'. And we have yet to hear the results of a similar survey of the northern plains because we're still supposed to be waiting for the CO2 to clear in the comparative warmth of the northern summer.
If this snowball comet theory is found to be accurate, I wouldn't mind betting that Mars has a surprise or two for us yet as far as water is concerned!!
We are well and truly into the northern Martian summer now. The CO2 'hood', which covers the north of Mars in winter, must have disappeared by this time and the instruments on Odyssey should have been in a position to take readings of hydrogen in the upper regolith.
Why have we heard nothing?
The northern plains must surely have at least as much water in the top metre as the southern highlands, and I'm keen to see some results!
Does anyone know what's going on? ???
Hi everybody!
I have the same globe of Mars as Byron, and it's one of my prize possessions!
Sometimes I just sit and study it and try to imagine the forces that shaped it over the eons. The fact that the northern lowlands are coloured blue is very evocative of an ocean, and it's not at all difficult to visualise how Mars will be when we recreate such a body of water on the surface.
I really recommend that anyone with more than a passing interest in Mars should get this globe. It's colourful, topographically accurate, endlessly useful when you need to visualise a certain area under discussion, makes a nice decorative addition to a shelf or desk, and makes a great talking point when people ask what your interests are! (And no, I don't have shares in 'Sky and Telescope'! I just love this globe.)
As I mentioned in another post a long time ago, huge areas of Mars, as depicted on this globe, look 'smeared'. They almost look like the aftermath of a wave on a child's sand castle. It sounds incredible, but you definitely get an intuitive feel for how much water has existed on Mars and the staggering torrents of it which must have engulfed and reshaped great swathes of the surface.
You simply can't examine this globe without 'knowing' in your gut that Mars was a very watery world.
There's no doubt in my mind that large oceans have existed there in the past, possibly for very long periods of time, and possibly intermittently, I don't know. And great meandering rivers must also have graced the scenery at some stages in Martian history.
The fact that crater counts and the apparent lack of erosion evident in so many areas seem to contradict the concept of a surface hydrological cycle for extended periods (perhaps even including significant precipitation), doesn't deter me. The simple visual evidence that Mars was once warm and wet is, to me, too strong. I'd rather believe that our interpretation of the cratering epochs and rates of erosion is somehow flawed. We're missing something important in that regard which I'm sure, when we discover it, will suddenly resolve the mystery.
I agree that we'll have to be cautious about where we place population centres - a little forward planning will save having to relocate towns when the waters rise.
I've often thought about where on Mars the most popular settlement areas will be. I've always imagined the 'shores' of Ganges and Eos Chasmas, Simud and Tiu Valles, and the southern reaches of Chryse Planitia, will be the 'Mediterranean' of Mars! This region straddles the equator and boasts a whole archipelago of islands (not yet, but soon! ) which will make very desirable real estate!! Many local residents will no doubt have boats and will spend their leisure days cruising the inlets and gorges of Kasei and Ares Valles.
Two other popular spots for settlement might be the coasts of the Isidis and Hellas Seas (currently Isidis and Hellas Planitias, of course). The southern stretches of the Hellas Sea coastline will be better suited to expatriate Canadians and Norwegians, I think ... because of the weather!
There will be so many drop-dead-gorgeous places to build a home and a new life that it's hard to even begin to cover all the possibilities.
My only regret is that I won't live to see it.
Well, nearly another month has passed and we still haven't heard from Ron.
Maybe no news is good news ... I don't know!
Some possibly better good news is that the first cracks in the stony edifice may be starting to appear. What I mean is, the first reports are leaking out that some scientists are beginning to make encouraging noises about gravity modification.
In this article, from the Space Daily website, which essentially pans NASA for various crimes of omission and incompetence, the following throw-away line appears:-
[Some top level physicists now agree that anti-gravity devices like the 512kV rotator can reduce the effects of gravity by spinning electrons, but they can't secure funding for research.]
Written by Carlton Meyer (anybody ever heard of him? ) on the first of this month, this is really quite a statement!
He drops the line in the middle of a diatribe against NASA, as though it's common knowledge and of little importance rather than potentially the most exciting story since Noah was loading the animals onto the ark!!
Has anyone else found any references to physicists making encouraging noises about gravity machines?
Is this Carlton Meyer a credible journalist? Or are we to take his report with a pinch of salt?
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