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Thanks Cindy!
That Patrick Moore has always been one of my favourite people - such a typical English eccentric!
But in spite of his unusual appearance and mannerisms, he is undoubtedly an extraordinarily smart guy ... one of those people whose mind works at least 10 times faster than mine ever will, and whom I admire for that reason alone!
Long may he continue to entertain and educate us all.
P.S. I didn't get the connection, in your previous post,
between the population densities and the comet. I must
be missing something here (... yeah, I know .. a brain,
right?!! )
Hi Byron!
It's interesting you should bring up the subject of the Great Ocean Conveyor. While you were otherwise engaged recently, I brought up that very subject over at 'Terraformation, Marsian Oceans' (in January).
I made the error of expressing my opinion that maybe we don't know anywhere near as much about climate change as we'd like to imagine. I then, rather foolishly, took things too far in daring to suggest that maybe a lot of what we're told is as much politics as science!
Anyhow, I had a bit of a run-in with one of our friendly neighbourhood commissars and a few words were exchanged! (No offence, Josh )
In the end, we parted on the best of terms by agreeing to disagree on a few details.
But the point is, you may be interested to check out the comments made in your absence.
I never have any difficulty reading all the way to the end of your posts, Dicktice.
I find they make a lot of sense!
Cindy, it's a great relief to me to know I'm not the only adult who just can't seem to get interested in Harry Potter books!!
Thank you!
Just one more short off-thread post.
Thanks Cindy and Byron for coming back with your comments on human-nature and politics. All very true!
And, Robert, I am extremely impressed that your letter brought about those beneficial changes - impressed that you took the time and trouble to get involved, and impressed that your parliamentarians were humble enough and sensible enough to actually listen!! I congratulate you.
I'm ashamed to admit my own mother used to say she'd never go into space because you couldn't take a bath in those poky little space capsules!!
Even when the Moon landings were happening, I couldn't impart to her the sense of wonder in it all. When I mentioned the Moon, all she could do was repeat the question: "Can they take a bath while they're on the Moon?"
If not, she wasn't interested in going there!!
I think she was missing the point!
Thanks for the interesting background information, Robert. It just goes to show how changing circumstances and random political decisions conspired to actually produce the hotch-potch of compromises described in that article.
Arguably, it's the democratic system (or at least its misuse) which is responsible for the deaths of those astronauts. There's always enough cash for pork-barrelling and for buying representatives another term in office but there's often too little money available for sensible long-term designs or plans! Isn't it typical that the shuttle design which cost least to develop at the time, but would cost more later and be less safe for the crew, was the one chosen by congress?!
There's got to be a better system than democracy! This short-term, near-sighted, to-hell-with-it-as-long-as-I-get-back-into-office-next-election kind of mentality is the scourge of today's society. It's remarkable that such a system has produced any progress at all since it replaced monarchies in the western world!
Sometimes I despair of humanity and its constant attention to selfish, self-centred, and self-serving behaviour. Doesn't anyone think of duty and higher purpose any more?
Sheesh!!
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Happy Birthday, Noctis!!
20 years old, eh?!
I was 20 myself, once ... small world, huh?!!
Hi Dickbill!
First let me say that it seems I have instigated a small parallel thread-within-a-thread here! Cyclohm has so far been very patient with this slight hijacking of his subject and I really don't want to detract in any way from his very worthy research efforts into Martian food production.
However, it does seem to me to be inescapable logic that, where research is being done into the suitability of Martian soil for agriculture, any dispute as to the chemical composition of that soil is relevant to the discussion.
With that as my excuse, and with cyclohm's gracious permission, I'm happy to continue this line of reasoning.
[Hey Cyclohm! Thanks for your indulgence in this matter up to now. If you say you want me out of your thread, I'll go gracefully and without rancour! ]
Getting back to your question, Dickbill, the book I quoted from is a library book - I don't actually own it. I actually returned the blessed thing just yesterday, as it happens! But that's not a problem. I'll go and get it again - today if I can manage it.
And you are quite correct that the data from the other Viking experiments, the Gas Exchange and the Pyrolitic Release experiments, gave ambiguous results. I won't attempt to describe those results from memory (having already demonstrated the limitations of my memory earlier in this thread! ) but I'll be perfectly happy to present a precis of that data's salient points when I get the book back. And I'll use as much direct quotation as possible in order to maximise objectivity and minimise the taint of any personal bias on my part.
I think what is important here, at least as far as semantics is concerned, is the use of the word 'evidence'. Dr. Levin has always maintained that his LR results constituted evidence for the existence of living organisms in the Martian regolith (not proof - evidence). If you understand the meaning of the word 'evidence', it's simply not possible to argue with that assertion. But NASA denies this. Their position, since the 70s, has been that no evidence for life was found. Ensuing research, particularly with regard to the fatal insensitivity of the GCMS, has made NASA's position on this point increasingly untenable. But have they modified their stance on this vitally important point? Not a bit of it!!
Why?!!
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I'll come back to you on this as soon as I get the chance.
I think Dicktice and I are pretty much in the same camp on the question of Mars novels.
It seems our ideas are more simplistic (I hesitate to use that word for obvious reasons - no offence intended, Dicktice) and less concerned with big corporations, big economics, and big politics. I think we're more into the day-to-day experiences of some of the first explorers.
For myself, I'm out of my depth on this one and withdraw from the discussion.
I'm still looking forward to the publication of this book, though. I'm hoping there'll be enough of 'the basics' in it to help me through all the politics and stuff! :;):
Byron, may your writing talents blossom until KSR, Greg Bear, Ben Bova et al. start looking over their shoulders with looks of grim concern in their eyes!
Thanks, Ad Astra, for that article on the development of the shuttle.
This sort of analysis is probably best adjudicated by people like our very own Robert Dyck, who have their fingers on the pulse of rocket development and efficiency. It would be interesting to hear what they think of this fairly damning piece of journalism!
The F1 engines from the Saturn V first stage, though they doubtless had their drawbacks, were apparently big, powerful, and reliable. And it seems they were capable of significant incremental improvement as technology moved forward. All right, they were 'big dumb boosters' lacking the sophistication of an SSME with its high specific impulse, but it does look as though their use could have resulted in a safer, much cheaper, and possibly more versatile vehicle.
Not that the technology of the shuttle isn't an absolute marvel! I'm sure most people see it as an engineering tour-de-force. But Ad Astra's article implies it was a hotch-potch of overlapping compromises; the worst compromise being that of the safety of the crew!
One of the most fascinating and potentially inflammatory parts of the article describes what could have been simple human jealousy and hubris. The author insinuates that the mothballing of the F1, after only a few years of spectacularly successful performance, may have been decided by people who simply wanted to outdo Werner Von Braun!! A thought that becomes all the more sobering when you think it might have cost the lives of 14 astronauts.
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I'm with Phobos! I will certainly buy this book when it comes out.
I can't hope to match the useful and very intelligent comments Clark has made - I wonder if he's ever considered a career in teaching literature?
For me, the political stuff in KSR's trilogy became a little overwhelming and the complexities of so many characters and their interactions over such a long period of time became hard work to keep up with! But then, I'm a very simple soul (Hey!! .. I heard that! )
Depending on what your basic framework entails, what about evidence of past life in the form of fossils? What about discoveries showing the extent of past oceans, river systems, etc.? Would such things, together with other marvels of Martian geology, be suitable as a backdrop - to give it more of that feeling of wonder and discovery that many Mars novels seem to lack? You know - more of the 'crunching along an ancient sandy ledge which echoed once to the sound of slowly falling, curling, salty waves .. a beach where sea spray drifted in a balmy carbon dioxide breeze.'
To my way of thinking, Mars has so much to offer in its own right that gumming up the works with endless politics, which you can get a belly-full of right here on Earth (! ), is not really necessary.
And, while characterisation is a good thing, for obvious reasons, my view is that too many well-developed characters can also become overwhelming. I think Arthur C. Clarke strikes a nice balance in this regard - allowing you to relate to one or two or three main characters, with the others there mainly as background.
Just some thoughts!
Hi Byron! It's good to see you again.
I just deleted a post over at "Terraformation" asking where you were!
We've missed your input.
All your future leave entitlements from New Mars have been revoked, by the way!!
P.S. For the cave-dwellers amongst us (i.e me! ), what does
'mmog' stand for?
And a Happy Birthday to you also, Mars Revival!!
... that's if you still hang around these parts any more. I don't remember hearing much from you lately.
Why don't you drop in more often and say 'hello' now and then? There's always room for more points of view.
[Again, this message is brought to you courtesy of Themescules.]
This subject led to quite a bit of discussion over at "Terraformation. Water, not CO2."
Soph is quite correct that most of any future CO2 atmosphere produced by terraformers was always expected to come from the regolith. Only tens of millibars of CO2 were ever expected to come from the south polar cap, while hundreds were hoped to exist in the soil.
I'm not sure, though, whether the recent discovery of widespread near-surface water ice might change the experts' views on this(? ). We've been told that the instrument used to detect the shallow water ice was unable to penetrate the CO2 'hood' over the far northern latitudes in winter, which is why we had to wait until late 2002 to find out about the large reservoirs in the northern hemisphere.
When the CO2 hood disappeared, does the fact that this instrument was then able to detect the water ice indicate that there is little or no CO2 in the regolith to block the neutron emission from the water? Or is the CO2 expected to be deeper than the 1 metre or so range of the instrument, or is the CO2 too diffuse in the soil to affect the readings anyway?
In view of the news that there may be much less CO2 present as a more-or-less pure solid at the south pole than we used to think, I'm concerned to confirm that the reserves in the regolith are still there!!
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Only optimistic replies will be accepted!
This information that Cindy has brought to light, about the possibility that only 0.36 millibars (equivalent atmosphere) of CO2 is available as surface ice, is interesting when considered alongside the Viking lander atmospheric data.
Viking 1 measured seasonal atmospheric pressures which varied from a minimum of 6.8 millibars to a maximum of 9.0 millibars.
If the new figures are correct, then over 80% of that 2.2 millibar 'bulking up' of the Martian atmosphere must have come from the regolith. If it didn't come from the regolith, then the 0.36 millibar estimate must be too low by a factor of about 6!!
If data are out by a factor of 6, then maybe they're not very valuable data(? ).
If the great majority of the 2.2 millibar seasonal increase in Martian air pressure can come from the soil, even under the present frigid conditions, then I'm hopeful that a concerted terraforming effort would release very much greater amounts of CO2.
My biggest worry now is that all my cheering for a watery Martian past may blow up in my face. If large standing bodies of water have existed on Mars over extended periods of time, perhaps with significant episodes of precipitation and an active hydrological cycle, then maybe much of the original CO2 atmosphere has, through chemical weathering, been irreversibly incorporated into carbonate rocks. Forever unavailable to enthusiastic terraformers!!
Say it ain't so!!
Please ... somebody ... say it ain't so!!!
Not 'sucking up', honest! Just apologising for daydreaming.
I would be the last person to want to ruin anybody's dreams - especially if they've been a long time coming. I ain't no spring chicken either!!
Yeah, you're right!
I know exactly what you're talking about with the ice-protected streams of water. And I do understand that the snow you mention probably fell millenia ago when one or other of the Martian poles was tilted more towards the Sun. And I understand that it's the availability of water for future manned missions you are stressing.
I should apologise to you for drifting way off the point and letting my imagination get the better of me!
For me, Mars has always been a romantic place - I don't just learn about it from all the new data which comes back to us from the probes, I feel it!! Like thousands of others, I suppose, there's just something about Mars which gets into your marrow ... something difficult to explain.
So yeah, you're absolutely right. When it comes to Mars, I'm a wide-eyed, passionate, hopeless romantic!
Sorry, Dicktice! I'll try harder to control myself!!
Pretty neat, all right!
Just imagine standing on Mars in the middle of a light wispy snowfall!!
An event so Earthly-familiar but on an alien planet!
Call me an incurable romantic or whatever, but it honestly gives me goosebumps just thinking about it.
When you send us this stuff, Rex, please bear in mind that not all of us are very good with computers (i.e me! ).
It would be appreciated if the information is as user friendly as possible. I'd hate to get a stack of glorious evidence for standing water on Mars and be unable to bring it up on screen!!
P.S. No need for apologies. I'm sure nobody would have taken
any offence at your comments. You merely stated your
case unequivocally - people who take offence at plain
straight-talking probably need to adjust their sets!
Hi Cindy!
I quite understand your reluctance to believe there might be liquid water on the surface of Mars. It's very difficult to judge from the photographs just what some of these features actually are - though I've said some of them do look like pools of clear liquid to my eyes. Certainly NASA hasn't come out in favour of surface liquid, preferring other explanations.
My line of reasoning was to try to establish whether it was even physically possible for bodies of standing water to exist on the Martian surface. Apparently briny water is capable of remaining liquid down to pretty low temperatures, so I pursued that aspect of it. And it seems salty water could conceivably account for some of these 'pools', if pools they be!
It's also interesting to look at what regions of Mars are topographically low enough to experience higher than average atmospheric pressures. Wherever the pressure exceeds 6.1 millibars (the so-called triple point of water, at which pressure it becomes possible for it to exist as a solid, a gas, and a liquid), then liquid water becomes a possibility. It turns out that in places like Hellas Basin, where the pressure can reach 12.4 millibars, and various other places such as the near-equatorial areas of Isidis Planitia, water could, at certain times of the year, form pools. And, presumably, the brinier the water, the longer it could persist as a liquid as the ambient temperatures dropped with the approach of winter.
The only problem is the dryness of the Martian air - far dryer than any on Earth. In theory, this dryness should cause any liquid water to evaporate very fast. But there is apparently a mechanism which might counteract this tendency for extremely rapid evaporation to occur. The Martian air is not only dry but very cold. It is too thin to retain much heat except very close to the ground, which is heated by the sun. This warm layer of air close to the ground would absorb water vapour from a pond and quickly become saturated. But at an altitude of about a metre, the air would be much colder than near the ground, and incapable of absorbing much water vapour from the air below it. Thus, at least in relatively calm conditions, a layer of warm air saturated with water vapour would remain immediately above our imaginary pond, preventing further evaporation from its surface!
Voila!! We now have a theoretically sound basis for ponds and perhaps even lakes on Mars! ( ... At least some parts of Mars, some times of the year, when the weather isn't too windy!)
:;):
And yes Rex!
I would be absolutely delighted to see your evidence for pools on Mars!
I'm only sorry I didn't see your presentations at the two conventions you mentioned.
Will you be at the next Mars Society Convention this year in Oregon? There is some slight chance I might be there myself and would be very interested to speak with you if the opportunity presented itself.
How thick is this snow?
I've always thought of snow on Mars as being more like a light dusting - perhaps more like centimetres deep rather than metres or tens of metres.
Still, I suppose if it's had thousands of years to build up ...
Anyone got any figures?
Josh writes:-
The point of inspections is to find things and make sure that what you have isn't in violation. If those things are in violation, then you destroy those things. It's a damn no brainer.
I haven't read Resolution 1441, so I'm not sure if I've got the wrong end of the stick (or whether even a 'no brainer' is beyond me ... which is quite possible! ).
But, as I understand it, Hans Blix and company are not actually supposed to 'find things'. Saddam is required to present the inspectors with illicit weapons or show that they have been disposed of. The UN Resolution apparently places the burden on his shoulders, which seems to be the only conceivable way of doing it because of the sheer size of Iraq. Obviously, even a thousand inspectors could scour the place for years with no realistic hope of finding deliberately concealed weapons. Full and candid Iraqi cooperation therefore had to be the chief criterion.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but is there not incontrovertible documentary evidence that many tons of chemical and biological agents, or their precursors, are unaccounted for?
Isn't it also true that Saddam has failed to cooperate, for months now, in revealing details of those weapons?
Isn't this a continuation of the same game of evasion Saddam has played with the UN for the past 12 years? And doesn't that mean he's in breach of his obligations under Resolution 1441?
If so, is there any reason to assume that further inspections and cat-and-mouse games will achieve anything?
Is it possible that we're dealing with someone without scruples of any kind, for whom human life is of no consequence? Could we be up against a consummate liar who hasn't the slightest intention of cooperating with any inspectors, any time, under any circumstances?
However well-intentioned France, Germany, Russia, and China may be (and I have no reason to trust their motives any more than anyone else's in this ), is it not then quite obvious that further inspections are a total waste of time?
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Soph, did you say 6 weeks?!
I'm beginning to think the war will start in the next 2 weeks, despite the lack of UN endorsement. Or am I misreading the situation?
How long would it take to get the inspectors out of Iraq?
Is there any danger that some of them could be 'detained' and ultimately used as hostages or human shields?
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Timberwind or liquid core NTR, what are the chances of getting it past the screaming rent-a-crowd protesters?
As has been pointed out elsewhere in New Mars, they practically had apoplexy about the Cassini RTG! Imagine the orchestrated insanity we'd see with NTR ground launches!
I don't mean to be a party-pooper, but ...
Dickbill writes:-
Zubrin would say that this is enough to go to Mars every weekend in a luxurious spaceship.
Ha ha !! :laugh:
A trillion dollar Mars program, eh?! Now that's something I could really get to grips with!!
On a more serious note, I'm with Cindy in wanting to knock Saddam's and George's heads together. It's gotta be better than staging a war!
But working on the assumption that Saddam and George would think having their heads knocked together is undignified, and refuse to go along with it, what's left?!
If France and Germany etc. were to be successful in extending the period of inspections until at least July (wasn't that one of their proposals? ), then a war at that point would be impossible due to the summer heat, right? So any such extension would effectively postpone any potential war until maybe December 2003.
Is this a big problem? Does anyone know whether Saddam might have succeeded in building a nuclear bomb by then? Is this, and has this always been, the reason for his prevarication?
Could America, Britain, and Australia realistically be expected to keep an invasion-strength force in position, on stand by, until December? Would they have lost interest and/or political impetus by then, and been forced to withdraw - perhaps for good this time?
Josh makes it sound beguilingly easy to cause Saddam to step down, using pens and telephones rather than guns and bombs. Perhaps he's right. But something keeps nagging at the back of my mind that it all sounds too easy somehow. What if Saddam just hangs on, secretly eliminating his enemies right under the noses of the UN inspectors, and secretly building his fission bomb, until the 'coalition of the willing' gives up and goes home? Then, what if he shows the weapons inspectors the door and emerges, less than 12 months from now, stronger and bolder and better armed than ever before?
Is any of this a problem? Or doesn't it really matter?
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