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#1252 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Space elevator - breaktroughs predicted » 2004-03-18 19:47:50

SBird:-

If things go spectacularly well, perhaps 2020 ...

    It seems to me that research and development is not always an orderly progression. Although it's a hackneyed and hence devalued term, the word 'breakthrough' is nevertheless sometimes an appropriate description of the fits and starts which occur at the 'cutting edge' of technology (Oops! Accidentally dropped another cliche ... a bit careless .. sorry! )
    I visualise a new technique being hit upon, probably by accident and possibly having its genesis in a different field entirely, which will allow the 'continuous' production of unbroken CNTs of any length required - a little like the production of a nylon filament from the interface of two liquids or the extrusion of long seamless aluminium articles.

    You see, unlike you, SBird, I'm not burdened by any practical experience of the difficulties involved in CNT production, so I'm able to dismiss potential stumbling blocks and cruise forward unhindered in my idealised world!   big_smile

    As has been pointed out, the potential uses and commercial possibilities of a CNT fibre are many, so the incentive is there. Dozens of research establishments are working on the problem, so there's an undeniable element of competition and no shortage of talent involved.
    You may be right that the difficulties will prove insurmountable for decades but I don't believe you. History shows us over and over again that predictions of future technology are more often overly pessimistic than the other way.
                                                 smile

#1253 Re: Life on Mars » Spheres are concreations. Are they are hematite? » 2004-03-18 19:11:23

Hi Errorist!
    I think I see what you mean. But maybe haematite only forms in geometric shapes, like flat-sided hexagons or octagons or whatever, if it is pure.
    These martian spheres are formed in an environment which includes many solutes, including compounds of sulphur, magnesium and chlorine.
    Maybe you're thinking of pure crystals of haematite, whereas these are impure and therefore described as concretions; solidified from a mixture of compounds but with haematite merely the predominant ingredient(?).
                                            ???

    If spherical mainly-haematite concretions could only arise as a by-product of biology, I'm sure we would have heard more about it by now.

#1254 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Volcanic Holocaust - Monster Eruption Overdue. » 2004-03-18 02:47:54

Oops! Sorry I raised the subject of Yellowstone. I didn't realise when I did it that it was such old news and I made the asinine error of assuming the newspaper reporter had at least the main points of the story correct!
    I shoulda known better.
                                             sad

#1255 Re: Unmanned probes » Spirit & Opportunity*4* - continue here » 2004-03-18 02:35:09

That picture of the sand dune (that the damned tourists ruined! ) is quite interesting.
    The surface looks so dry and loose but, just beneath a thin crust, the material is much darker and very cohesive.
    I'm thinking it must be quite damp and salty just under the surface. Is that the official viewpoint at JPL too at the moment?
                                                    ???

#1256 Re: Life on Mars » What if the Mössbauer shows the spheres are Hemati » 2004-03-18 02:03:31

Hi Errorist!
    I'm with Lars_J, I don't understand either. Haematite here on Earth may be associated with fossils but it doesn't have to be ... does it?
    Now we know the 'blueberries' contain haematite, nobody at JPL seems to be jumping up and down yelling "Fossils!!!"

    Can you be more specific with your line of reasoning?   ???

#1257 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Volcanic Holocaust - Monster Eruption Overdue. » 2004-03-17 07:02:01

And you're absolutely right, Byron, that we shouldn't "get all twisted up in a knot about this kind of thing...".
    Before SBird educated me about the full facts of the matter, I was thinking scary thoughts about how Yellowstone is 40,000 years overdue for a major eruption! I was also thinking it had been about the same time interval since the appearance of Cro-Magnon man.
    Just imagine! Ever since the dawn of modern man, we've been blissfully unaware that Yellowstone was hanging over our heads - possibly due to explode any minute. And wouldn't it be ironic if, no sooner than we recognised the danger, the damned thing decided to blow!
    And what further irony, that we're finally discussing planet-killing events, like asteroid impacts, and taking the threat seriously, and finally thinking about becoming a two-planet species for safety's sake, and then we get annihilated just before we actually do something about it!

    What a cosmic joke that would be!     yikes

#1258 Re: Not So Free Chat » Spinning the Spanish election - Another thought » 2004-03-17 06:44:20

Bill:-

Neither. Both would be out of office before a mission were launched.

    Sheesh ... then I guess it'll all be up to Arnie.   tongue

[And no, I wasn't familiar with the 'flypaper argument'. It's as good a hypothesis as any, I suppose, whether it was the CIA's idea or Al-Qa'ida's. It probably cuts both ways anyhow.]

#1259 Re: Unmanned probes » Spirit & Opportunity*4* - continue here » 2004-03-17 06:18:05

Don't worry about your English, Rxke; I've never had any trouble understanding anything you've posted here.
    Actually, there's somebody here who shall remain nameless, who is supposed to be a native-born English speaker, whom I find almost incomprehensible at times!
                                                         big_smile

    You're doing just fine, believe me.
                                                       smile

#1260 Re: Not So Free Chat » Spinning the Spanish election - Another thought » 2004-03-17 06:01:55

All well reasoned points, Josh. Unless or until the perpetrators of the Spanish attack are interrogated, assuming they know anything much about the overall picture in the first place, we may never know whether Spain was already high on the terrorists' hit list before Iraq.
    With regard to your comment about "the myth that right wingers are better at keeping the world safe", I saw the result of an opinion poll recently. I may be wrong, but I think the poll was conducted in America (seems logical), and asked the punters whom they thought the terrorists would prefer to win the U.S. elections later this year. 25% thought the terrorists would prefer Bush, while 60% thought the terrorists would prefer Kerry in the Whitehouse.
    I'm not sure how representative these figures are from a national perspective but it does seem the "myth" you mentioned is still alive and well in at least some parts of America.

    I'm not American, as you know, so I suppose it's not my business anyway. But I am a certifiable Mars nut, so I hope the man with the most 'vision thing' for space exploration is elected!
                                              tongue

    Which guy is most likely to get a crewed mission to Mars before I drop dead, Bush or Kerry?
                                                ???   smile

#1261 Re: Unmanned probes » Spirit & Opportunity*4* - continue here » 2004-03-17 01:07:46

Thanks Rxke!
    The sand in the 'sand cakes' picture sure looks sticky, doesn't it?
    Reminds me of salty terrestrial beach sand.

#1262 Re: Not So Free Chat » Spinning the Spanish election - Another thought » 2004-03-17 00:58:07

Alt2War:-

It takes quite a bit of mental contortion to link 9/11 with Iraq.

    Gosh.

Alt2War:-

There is no evidence that Saddam and Al Quiida had any signifigant involvement with each other.

    Really?

Alt2War:-

In the global war on terrorism, Iraq was a side show.

    I see.

    Now that we've established beyond reasonable doubt that Iraq and Al-Qa'ida are unconnected (thank you for explaining that to us), all we have to do now is explain why participation in the invasion, or support for it, makes countries targets for Al-Qa'ida-sponsored terrorism.

    Can you see now that the almost triumphant "I-told-you-so" gloating in your assessment of the Spanish tragedy is without logical basis? Your own reasoning establishes that Al-Qa'ida doesn't care about Iraq and never has.

    Regardless of your psychological and ideological need to connect President Bush and the Coalition with Islamic extremist violence in some kind of hopelessly perverted cause-and-effect way, your own words trip you up.

    You, and those like you, who are propaganda mouthpieces for left-wing groups, should stand back from the indoctrination you've accepted uncritically and take a long hard look at reality.
                                                smile

#1264 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Volcanic Holocaust - Monster Eruption Overdue. » 2004-03-16 20:38:15

Many thanks, SBird!    smile

    That was a fascinating and very educational reply. It's certainly good to hear a more balanced and less sensationalised report on the Yellowstone situation ... quite a relief, too!!

    That California volcano you mentioned could be a problem, though. I guess we can only hope that nothing happens in our lifetimes or our children's and grandchildren's.

#1265 Re: Not So Free Chat » Spinning the Spanish election - Another thought » 2004-03-16 20:29:36

Hi Alt2War.
    Your last post is typical of the attitude of so many lefties, who will use anything, even the unnecessary death and injury of thousands of innocent people, to further their cause.
    It appears you are so rabidly anti-Bush and anti-Iraq-war that you will perpetrate, with breathtaking arrogance and disregard for reality, the very crime you applaud the Spanish people for punishing at their election, the crime of milking tragedy for personal benefit.

    To save time and repetition here, I ask you to read my post at Appropriate Topics: On War and Politics, dated Mar 16 2004, 07:58.
    It points out the real reasons the Spanish people were attacked; the reasons why all liberal democracies are under attack by these barbarians.

    I regret to have to use such strong language, but it is precisely your kind of political opportunism I despise the most. Please, try to concentrate on the real enemy here, rather than airing your left-wing ideology at the expense of the Spanish victims.
    When Al-Qa'ida comes to your neighbourhood one day, they won't care if you're waving a red flag and spluttering that you opposed the war ... they'll kill you anyway!
    They don't care! Get it?!!
                                                            ???

#1266 Re: Not So Free Chat » Appropriate Topics: On War and Politics » 2004-03-16 19:54:06

Thanks everyone for the interesting responses to my impassioned post against 'the barbarians at the gates'!
    I confess to getting a little hot under the collar when it comes to Al-Qa'ida, which I want to see crushed out of existence as soon as possible. Of course, every one of you good people wants exactly the same thing; the only disagreement is over how best to go about it.

    I just wish we could all put aside our relatively petty political differences and face this very real threat as a united front. I'm very concerned that rivalries between Europe and America (an oversimplification, I agree), and between the right and the left, will hamper a response which needs to be strategically well-planned and operationally cohesive.
    We can go on for centuries arguing the finer points of capitalism and socialism etc., extending or reducing the scope and magnitude of the welfare state, pointing the finger accusingly at whichever country has the biggest military at the time, until we get the ideal mix of power, incentive and compassion in the world. But, for now, there are forces out there which seek to deprive us of the luxury of that sort of debate, and impose upon us a religious totalitarian state instead.
    I think we need to get our priorities right, that's all.
                                                   ???   smile

    In specific response to Bill's comments, when I describe Al-Qa'ida as being 'without reason', I don't mean their actions are random and unplanned. I do realise how cunning they are. What I really mean is that their agenda is not open to negotiation because it's founded on a religious premise; you can't argue with the will of God.
    If someone is out to convert you to his/her sect and will use every means available, up to and including killing you if need be, and if s/he is doing this because s/he believes it's the will of God, sitting down with that person over a cup of coffee and saying: "Now, now, let's just talk this over and see if we can reach a compromise", isn't going to work!
                                                                     sad

#1267 Re: Not So Free Chat » Appropriate Topics: On War and Politics » 2004-03-16 06:58:59

Hi Don Panic.
    The Spanish were attacked because they are not a hard-line Muslim theocracy. That's all the qualification you need.
    America and Australia (in Bali) were attacked before Iraq was invaded.
    No organisation on Earth put more obstacles in the way of the invasion of Iraq than the U.N. However, the Iraqi headquarters of the U.N. in Baghdad was attacked in August 2003 and Mr Sergio Vieira de Mello, special representative of the U.N. Secretary General, and universally loved and respected, was killed.

    Jemaah Islamiah, the extremist Muslim organisation affiliated to Al-Qu'aida, which orchestrated the attack which killed 88 Australian citizens in Bali, went on record as saying Australians were targeted not because of anything they had done, but because of what they were.
    They were, and are, liberal democratic members of Western Civilisation and, as such, representatives of the highest order of civilisation yet attained on this planet. Not representatives of a perfect civilisation, you understand, but of the best yet. This is a civilisation which upholds in law the right of everyone to a say in how they are governed, which upholds equality of the sexes, which upholds the right of freedom of speech, freedom of religion, freedom of association, and which outlaws slavery.

    This is where the Spanish people went wrong. They too are civilised, tolerant freedom-loving people. Until they embrace a bigoted close-minded Islamic Theocracy, they (and we also) will be subject to the attacks of these primitive religious zealots. You don't have to do anything else to qualify!
    In fact, the poor Spanish people did do one other thing to bring the mindless cruelty of Al-Qa'ida down upon themselves. Osama Bin Laden went on record as saying he could never forget "the tragedy of Andalusia". You might be forgiven for not understanding this added excuse for butchery, since it dates back many centuries to the expulsion of the Islamic Moors from the Iberian Peninsula by Christians! This is how limitless the insane hatred and revenge of Bin Laden really is, and it's impossible to understand the ignorance of the thousands of followers who actually place credence in his particular brand of religious bigotry.

    So please, Don Panic, don't try to perpetuate the myth of Western guilt by blaming the victims in this tragedy. The criminals are the Islamic extremists and their hatred had no need of the invasion of Iraq as an excuse to practise their brand of barbarism; it's inculcated into them in schools run by their hate-filled teachers.

    Personally, I don't care how far up the Islamic fundamentalist vengeance list my country is raised - the higher the better in my view - because the more they hate me, the better the job of irritating them I must be doing! Any Western man or woman who bleats that they've been made more of a target for Islamic extremist barbarians, by standing up for what's right, is a craven coward who doesn't deserve the freedom s/he enjoys.

    I don't believe in appeasement. Winston Churchill once said that "an appeaser is someone who feeds a crocodile in the hope it will eat him last".
    There's nowhere to hide in this war against terror, Don Panic, so let's not pretend there is. The enemy is without reason and without mercy and cares not a jot whether you are left wing, right wing, libertarian, feminist, fascist or republican ... they will kill you just the same, because you aren't an extremist Muslim!.
    Iraq has nothing whatsoever to do with it.

    Comprenez-vous, mon ami?
                                                                                                    ???

#1268 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Volcanic Holocaust - Monster Eruption Overdue. » 2004-03-16 02:13:14

I've just found a newspaper article from the Sunday Herald Sun of Jan. 4th 2004, an Australian newspaper. I'd intended to post it at New Mars but it disappeared into a drawer and evaded my attention until now.
    It appeared under the same headings I've used for this Topic and describes a looming threat to civilisation which may be more real, more imminent and just as destructive as a major asteroid impact.

    I'll quote from the text of the article:-

Deadly Threat To Mankind.
    The super volcano below America's Yellowstone National Park has been showing signs of increased activity. If it blows, it will unleash millions of tonnes of ash and molten rock into the atmosphere. The volcano's caldera - or collapsed crater - is about 85 km long and 50 km wide, and underneath is a vast chamber of molten rock. Historically, the super volcano has erupted every 600,000 years. The last eruption was 640,000 years ago.

    It goes on to say:-

A leading expert on hazards facing the planet has predicted it could blow at any time.
    If and when it does, all life within an 800 km radius would be destroyed, and the ash produced will block out the Sun, producing a form of much-feared nuclear winter that has the capacity to destroy mankind.
    Even if the U.S. survived the blast, there is little doubt its period of global dominance would end, leaving the way open for another superpower, possibly China, to reign unchallenged.

    To give you an idea of the possible imminence of this catastrophe, the author of the article describes some worrying events:-

Experts monitoring seismic activity within the park became alarmed last year when the ground grew unusually hot and thermal springs became more volatile.
    This led to a temporary closure of the park.
    Experts called in to discover the causes of these phenomena found a 700 m long bulge beneath Lake Yellowstone.
    They calculated it had already risen 30 m from the lake floor, and could explode any time.

    They included a map of the potentially affected area, radius 800 km, and it includes Vancouver, Seattle, Great Falls, Salt Lake City, Las Vegas, Denver, Phoenix and Albequerque. It's a grim prospect.

    Maybe this is one of the reasons President Bush has decided to go back to the Moon. Perhaps it's becoming urgent that America establishes itself somewhere off-planet and Mars is too far away - the Moon will be quicker. Mars may be just a cover story(?).
    How's THAT for a conspiracy theory?!!    tongue

#1269 Re: Not So Free Chat » Automated highways - is it an idea who's time has come? » 2004-03-15 07:23:53

Arthur C. Clarke went on record years ago saying he never travels by any means of transport in which he can't read a newspaper whilst travelling!
    This, of course, is essentially a snub to the concept of owning and driving a motor vehicle and implicit recognition that public transport is the only sensible way to travel.

    Personally, I love cars and always have. It's hard for me to contemplate a world in which the freedom of personal car ownership and control no longer exists in its historical sense. Living in Australia, where there are still endless expanses of open road to enjoy, only makes it harder to let go!
    But if present trends in traffic congestion continue, and people keep dying in large numbers on our roads, it's very difficult to put forward any kind of sensible argument against the automation of vehicle guidance. And advances in computer technology, of course, have given us the technical ability to achieve that goal whenever we muster the political will to do so.

    I have to say, despite my emotional attachment to cars, that I support Byron's suggestion that perhaps the time has come.
                                              smile

    [Unlike Josh, I'm not surprised at CC's endorsement of computer-controlled vehicles; I've always found CC to be eminently logical on most subjects.
     On the other hand, without wishing to elicit a lecture on politics, what would an anarchist want with a large centrally-controlled computer network keeping tabs on every journey we undertake - knowing when we leave home and where we go? Sounds more like the Soviet-style centralised system we spent a whole Cold War overcoming.]
                                        :;):

#1270 Re: Not So Free Chat » A bet - Adrian and Josh - discussion » 2004-03-13 02:30:51

I don't know how old you are, Dickbill (never bothered to look it up), but those are wise words.
                                                :up:

#1271 Re: Not So Free Chat » Apropos of Nothing 2 - Run of the mill randomness! » 2004-03-11 07:44:35

As we get older, diets are definitely good things to get into, Cindy. But my advice is not to treat diets as diets but as permanent lifestyle changes.
    About two years ago, I stepped onto the bathroom scales and staggered back in horror! I was 4 kg (~9 lbs) over the weight I'd fondly imagined I'd always been since my early twenties.
    It had snuck up on me because, in my earlier years, I'd been able to eat almost anything I wanted without putting on weight. But as we get older, most of us find that's no longer the case. And there is evidence now that high-sugar and high-carbohydrate intake is not only fattening but may be associated with accelerated aging as well. One longevity researcher I read about recently is so convinced that sugars and carbohydrates shorten your lifespan, she's all but given them up! (A bit fanatical, I think.)

    I know the Atkins Diet has been subject to adverse criticism lately, particularly from the people who've advocated high-carb diets over the past 30 years. But I find it interesting that, back when I was a kid in the late fifties and early sixties, fat people were really quite rare and you tended to notice them. They stood out - in more ways than one! Back then, everybody ate butter and eggs and drank full cream milk. They ate red meat 3 or 4 times a week, if not more, with potatoes and vegetables. Nobody was into oats and bran and muesli and pasta, and highly processed sugary foods were relatively uncommon compared to now.
    In the old days, people weren't scared to eat real natural foods, including meat fat and milk fat etc. Our everyday diet was much closer to the Atkins Diet than the stuff we started eating in the late sixties, seventies, eighties and so on. And obesity was unusual!

    I now tend to eat more eggs, meat, fish, fruit and nuts. I don't fret too much about a little bit of fat. I still have cereal for breakfast with a banana, because I like it(! ), but maybe a couple of times a week I have crispy-fried bacon (fat and all) and fried eggs. Lunch is usually a boiled egg and chicken with 'non-diet' thousand island dressing and a handful of nuts (roasted and salted cos I like 'em that way). My evening meal is more varied and does include pasta maybe twice a week but commonly consists of old fashioned meat/fish, mashed potatoes (love 'em! ) and vegetables .. good wine ... fruit but no dessert!
    Oh, and I drink a cup of coffee with breakfast and lunch but not at night (keeps me awake).

    I've done all this because I needed to do it. I needed a lifestyle change because my body was getting out of control with what I was doing to it. Or at least, it was beginning to control me rather than the other way around!
    I'm back to 74 kg again now, same as I was at 25 years old, and my weight varies very little. It did take me about six months to lose those extra 4 kg but that's O.K. Crash diets and relapses are apparently especially bad for the system.

    Cindy, I admire your determination in taking back control of your food intake. I think it's all too easy for us these days to just go along with the trend in the developed world towards eating too much, and too much of the wrong things!
    But be careful not to aim for a quick weight loss by denying yourself everything you enjoy. I believe that's not only bad for your metabolism but bad for your morale! Better to just reduce the total amount you eat, more so with sugary foods and carbs, but allow yourself small amounts of the things you enjoy. Then you can adapt to making your new 'diet' just a part of your life instead of something you 'go on' and then 'go off'.

    Hell!!! What a boring lecture from a boring old f***!!   big_smile
    But it works for me.
                                       smile

#1272 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Long Transports of Fragile Instruments » 2004-03-11 06:49:25

No no, Cindy! I think you're absolutely right to question the logic behind everything to do with the safety of space probes.
    After all, in retrospect wouldn't it have saved a lot of trouble if we'd thought to ask the personnel in charge of the Mars Polar Lander whether or not they knew the difference between a foot and a metre?!
                                             yikes   ???   sad

#1273 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Long Transports of Fragile Instruments » 2004-03-11 06:11:59

When you consider how precious this piece of machinery is, it does sound reckless to entrust it to a journey of hundreds of kilometres in a van!
    But I've never heard of a removal truck or van being involved in an accident. I suppose it must happen occasionally but obviously not very often. Then you have to evaluate what proportion of removal van accidents result in serious damage to the payload. Most accidents, thank God, are relatively minor and this spacecraft is not as fragile as all that. The report says it's spent 3 months in the testing department being "baked, frozen, spun, shaken and probed". (It's a wonder they didn't smash the damned thing before it even left the assembly building!! )
    So, as a percentage of the total risk to Messenger, including the launch, transit, manoeuvres, planetary gravity assists etc., how significant is the van ride? I would suggest it's probably a very small risk by comparison (- though that doesn't mean we shouldn't do our best to eliminate as many risks as possible).

    And what about air freight? Everyone knows flying is safer than driving, so why not fly the thing to Florida?! I guess there's a good reason not to but I can't think of it right now.

    And as for building everything on the spot in Florida, I suppose there may be people with certain expertise in other states who are better at doing certain things, have children in highschool, and don't particularly want to move to Florida.

    Or could there be some politics involved? .... Naahhhh!!
                                             tongue

#1274 Re: Unmanned probes » Spirit & Opportunity*4* - continue here » 2004-03-11 05:44:55

Hmmm. I have to admit, at first glance Bonneville looks less than inspiring but the trained geologists may be seeing more than I can see.
    Those hills, which will be the next target when investigations at Bonneville are completed, certainly look much closer now. And who knows what wonders we might find there!
                                        smile

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