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#76 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Russia+Europe sign deal to build six seater Lunar Craft! :D » 2008-05-16 11:16:16
Sure.
Jim Oberg's lecture slides (PDF) - Oberg is probably the best authority on the Russian space program outside Russia.
and
Lots more on his site
Thats fair enough, but its doesn't take much credit away from Russian success in space. They've been quite technically excellent at it. Countless people have died pursuing manned space flight - Its inherently very dangerous.
The Soyuz craft is the most used vehicle for delivering humans into space and is extremely reliable. Russia has the experience in manned space flight to build on. ESA is going to catch up.
I've no doubt that the above craft and capabilities can be achieved once the funding isn't pulled by ESA or RSK.
#77 Re: Not So Free Chat » The Flag that Barack Obama won't wear » 2008-05-16 09:54:48
I think that those that fight and those that support terrorism, should be removed from the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and after that, we'll see whose left.
I think that terrorist supporters, terrorists, and Hamas should be the "boat people", they should be made into stateless refugees because of their acts, if that is most of the Palestinians, then so be it.
As I define it a terrorist supporter is:
Anyone who voted for Hamas.
Anyone who let terrorists into their buildings to let them fire their Kassam rockets at innocent civilians.
Anyone who cheers the murder of innocent civilians.
Anyone who knowingly gives aid and comfort to a terrorist, protects him from apprehension or demonstrates for a terrorist's release.Remove all those people from the West Bank and Gaza strip and permanently bar them from returning and Israel should get along with its new Palestinian neighbors swimmingly.
Your definition of 'terrorist' supporter would likely have you kicked out of your own country. After all, you probably voted for succesive goverments who's actions caused the deaths of 100 000's of civilians world wide. Your tax money pays for it etc etc
But I realise that oppression, genocide, racism, forced evictions, bombings and abductions are not a solution.
I would take slightly more inspiration from the Northern Ireland Peace Process. That didn't use violence and opression, but allowed the various factions to come to a non-violent solution.
It didn't ask the groups involved to get rid off their ideologies (Unionist still want to be a part of Britain, Nationalists still want a 32 county republic), just put them on hold whilst more practical goals are achieved without violence.
If peace and stable goverment means negotiating with terrorists, so be it.
Both sides are going to have to make sacrifices and do things they won't like, but thats life.
(btw, I don't think it was too inspiring that US-Israel punished palestinian for their democratic choice - its a bit rich to trumpet democracy and then oppose it when they pick someone we don't like.)
#78 Re: Not So Free Chat » Did Iran become a player in space ? » 2008-05-16 09:32:51
Well, If you feel you want to cause 'necessary' deaths to fight terrorism, please allow 100 000 innocent Americans to die and stop making the Middle East to pay the tab. They never asked nor invited.
Its clear that Terrorism wasn't the cause of the Iraq war, since none of the terrorists involved in 9/11 came from Iraq or had anything to do with Saddam. Bin Laden despises leaders like Saddam because they precided over mostly secular goverments (albiet very horrible ones')
You have to ask where all the extra terrorism came from? Its not magic. Infact, planners predicted that this what the war would cause. The Holocaust is very different because it was higly planned and a specific event. The rise of global terrorism is an unorganized but general trend that occurs mostly after US aggression in the Middle East.
A six fold increase in terrorism didn't appear for no reason and its fairly unlikely that intervention in Muslim states isn't stoking the flames.
If you claim to be combatting terrorism, but all your actions are resulting in more terrorism - Its time to change policy and do something that works.
#79 Re: Space Policy » President of India calls for joint - US/Indian habitat on Mars by 2050 » 2008-05-16 09:02:28
If you could produce it cheaper than China, you would already be doing so. However its very clear that you can't.
I don't support how the chinese goverment run their state, but I think that going to change over the next couple of decades. If there is already economic co-operation with China, you aren't proving anything by freezing them out of space. It hypocrtical and just plain silly!!
China is going to get into space exploration and they probably will have the resources to do it on a massive scale. They are probably going to become the most powerful country in the world in a few decades. I'd prefer to do a deal with them in the meantime.
You can be very influential through co-operation and by not being hostile all the time.
Just as China's low labor rates made it competitive against Korea and Taiwan, India and other countries will be able to out compete China. The dream of highly automated factories is still a dream, yet one day it will be realized and the economics will change again.
There's nothing magical about China, just because they have a enormous population and are developing quickly doesn't mean they will become "the most powerful country in the world in a few decades". The same was said about Japan in the 1970s, it was going to overtake the US economy by the 21st Century and look where Japan is today. Most of China is grossly under developed, it has enormous environmental, infrastructure and educational problems. China is run by an autocratic communist government that tolerates no opposition and oppresses any signs of democracy. That type of government becomes fossilized and dysfunctional.
China's interest in space appears to be solely military and political, they have no civilian space program, it's all under military control. Their aim seems to be to prove to the world that they are as advanced as any other country, when clearly they are not. Their human space program is equivalent to the Russian and US programs of the mid 1960s.
Considering that China is rapidly becoming an adversary, it would be foolish indeed to provide them with more dual use technology. Once the government has radically changed to embrace democracy, China would be welcomed by the rest of the world that it hasn't already bribed or threatened.
Ohh c'mon! You already do massive trading with China (and loads of other undemocratic states, like Saudi Arabia.) They already have the capacity to launch nukes at the US, so no real worries about dual use technology.
China isn't as advanced in hi-technology yet, but it will be. It has the benefit of seeing all that has come before and many hi-tech jobs will flow into China soon enough. It playing a game of catch up, but it'll get there.
All Space programs started out as millitary operations at first. Its a bit rich to say this is something unique to China. Eventually, It will branch into civillian operations.
About the automated factories: What makes you think that technology will be kept ot yourselves? Not in the globalized world. I don't forsee the Multinational corporations moving out of the developing world just yet unless Goverments impose controls.
It would likely still be much cheaper to produce goods in those parts of the world (with the fancy machines) because the price of everything is still cheaper there and you can avoid taxes. Even Automated machines would require lots of maintenance staff!
#80 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Russia+Europe sign deal to build six seater Lunar Craft! :D » 2008-05-16 08:52:41
Soyuz was built during the days of the Soviet Union, when engineers and technicians were effectively slaves controlled by the government. They also had blank checks for whatever they wanted. Nothing stood in the way, if anyone objected they disappeared in the Gulags. The media dare not report the accidents and cosmonauts who died were erased from history. Today Russia is different, even with petrodollars flowing in, funding is tight - that's why they need ESA euros.
Any evidence to back that up?
#81 Re: Not So Free Chat » Did Iran become a player in space ? » 2008-05-16 08:50:46
Not really unless what Saddam Hussein was doing to his people for 30 years can be called good governance. Over 300,000 mass graves have been found in Iraq since the liberation, all filled with people he had tortured and killed. Let alone the 5000 he killed with chemical weapons and the unknown number he was responsible for killing during the Iran Iraq war, estimated at over one million. His was killing people by the thousands right up until the invasion stopped him. Random acts of terror are horrific but at least civilians have a chance, but having to the entire apparatus of the state used against them for thirty year is beyond horror. In comparison with the "six fold " increase in global terrorism since 2003 the extent of Saddam's terror was orders of magnitude worse.
This shifting of the blame won't work anymore; it's the terrorists, namely AQ, Baathists, Sunni and Shia extremists who are responsible for terrorism!
Yeah, it was a horrific regime. Nobody doubts that.
What also can't be doubted are the statistics, and they show that after US agression in the Middle East post 2003, terrorism increased around the world six-fold!
Since I don't believe in magic, its pretty clear the wars in the middle east are partially responsible for this increase terrorism.
Fighting Islamic terrorism was one the proposed goals of the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, but it has failed and hugely increased terrorism aswell as causing 100 000's of unnessecary deaths.
#82 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Solar Federal Republic » 2008-05-16 08:39:23
Its very naive to think that humans will be able to maintain ourselves at the top of that 'food chain' and keep control of the machines, esp if they become far more intelligent and efficient than us (which is pretty damn likely)
We won't be able to keep robots our slaves forever if they become advanced enough to be self aware and creative.
Robots may very well see humans as an inefficieny in the system and remove us from it. They might even think we're a bunch of selfish jerks for using them as slaves to live out our greedy, decadent and boyish fantasies etc etc
I'm not saying that will happen, but it could happen!
AI and Robots will have an enourmous advantage over humans by having psychic abilities. They all be able to communicate with each other and organize through internet. They will literary able to empathise with each other. The will be no language barrier.
Humans are limited by language and a brain quietly imprisoned in our skull.
#83 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Russia+Europe sign deal to build six seater Lunar Craft! :D » 2008-05-16 08:16:16
Well, given the fantastic reliability of the Soyuz over it's 40 years service and the general wonderful things the Russian have achieved in space - I've not doubt that they can build this and it will work!!
Given the great work done to build Ariane 5 and the Jules Verne ATV, I've little doubt ESA can pull this off either since they now have good experience.
The only thing to worry about now is if it will get funded all the way through!
It will be a serious let down if either party decides to pull out.
This isn't a charge that can thrown soley at RSK, since NASA has promised loads of great programs before but axed them due to funding cuts and the president's temperament.
Anywhere, there needs to be more than one nation with the capabilities to get humans out of LEO!! That will insulate space exploration against budget cuts and fickle leaders.
#84 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Mass People Transport » 2008-05-16 08:05:21
Yes, mass people transport in space - before this can be sensibly discussed, where are these people going and why?
Okay, good question.
If we wanted to establish large colonies or industrial operations in space, we will need to be able to send more than 6 people at a time. We need to send people in bulk.
We would also want to be able to ferry goods and passengers around the solar system on pretty regular intervals to maximise their economic benefit and make colonies viable. There should be constant traffic between the locations to offset the high cost of the hardware.
The places I imagine these people going would be The Moon, Mars, Phobos, Deimos, NEO's, Ceres, Vesta and the rest of the Asteroid Belt!!
Other possible destinations would be space stations and habitats, Venus and Mercury - If those become technologically possible to settle without 'terraforming'
Ultimately it makes a lot of sense to seperate the Cargo and Passenger aspects of space. Both of these can probably be automated. I think economies of scale is the way to go with space industry and settlement.
#85 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Mass People Transport » 2008-05-15 16:52:20
It occurs to me that many hundreds of nuclear submarines and ships have been operated for the equivalent of many thousands of "reactor years" during the past half a century. There have been a few engine incidents, to be sure, but the technology has proven safe enough that we continue to operate them on a large scale.
They're a disaster waiting to happen. there have been a few small scale incidents and there very probably will be a serious one soon enough. Once this occurs, there will be devastating consequences that will be out of our control. the cat will be out of the bag!
Rather than wait around for an accident to happen, we should be phasing fission power out and getting ready for safer sources like fusion.
anyway, lets get back on topic - mass people transport!
#86 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Mass People Transport » 2008-05-15 15:17:53
Yeah, I know that. thats the whole point.
The consequences of a serious nuclear accident happen to be a lot more dire than a car, plane or normal power station breaking down.
But this is the thing, with enough development the risk of a disaster will be acceptable. I believe that the risk is acceptable now with modern designs, like the Westinghouse AP1000 design.
The design is 20% as complicated as previous reactors, and there are valves holding the moderator in the core and coolant water in gravity-fed tanks. If the worst possible thing goes wrong, if all control and power is lost and everyone at the plant is abducted by aliens, and the pressure vessel of the reactor fails...
...then the multi-redundant valves release, since without power they don't hold shut, moderator is dumped, the nuclear reaction stops, and the pressure is relieved. Plus the emergency coolant is dumped under the force of gravity to cool the core. And even if the core did leak, the radioactive material would be contained in the thick steel containment building.
And don't get me started about how safe the pebble-bed or Uranium Hydride reactors are. Modern reactors are so far removed from the stupid primitive Chernobyl design that it is dishonest as well as ignorant to compare them.
I don't think people will take to well to the idea that them being irradiated and there entire area becoming uninhabitable is an acceptable risk!
the consequences of an accident are far too serious to be left to chance. because nothing can be made completely fail safe, that means an accident happening is merely a matter of when.
a design that is 20% more complicated just means there are more things that can potentially go wrong!!
#87 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Mass People Transport » 2008-05-15 14:41:39
Its not stupid and its pretty justified. Nuclear technology is inherently dangerous and several serious accidents have occured because of it. More accidents will happen...
...There are no fail safe Nuclear Technologies and if a serious accident does occur, the consequences can be dire and effect for generations. Boiler explosions don't disperse radioactive particles for miles and irradiate everything so its uninhabitable for centuries.
We should be phasing out Fission and prepare for Fusion power. Fusion reactors will produce far more power and don't suffer the problems of a run away chain reaction that causes a meltdown.
It is very likely that Fusion power will be achieved by the time colonizing outerspace is even possible.
Nonsense, no technology is completely 100% fail safe, not cars, airplanes, chemical factories, buildings, medicine, food, none of them are completely safe! It is not possible to achieve 100% safety from anything, thats irrational and silly.
There is a finite, nonzero chance that you will be killed by a falling meteor before you finish reading this post. Its a definite risk. Or a tsunami. Or a or any number of things. But we don't live in caves do we? Its because some risk is acceptable, and well developed nuclear power plants are so safe that their risk is essentially no higher than any other big power plant.
Its time people stopped being irrational, childish fools and accepted the concept of non-zero risk and started acting like adults.
Yeah, I know that. thats the whole point.
The consequences of a serious nuclear accident happen to be a lot more dire than a car, plane or normal power station breaking down.
#88 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Russia+Europe sign deal to build six seater Lunar Craft! :D » 2008-05-15 14:08:52
Gregori,
ESA/RKA don't have the launcher or the lander to do the job. Traveling to the Moon is not that hard, a modified Soyuz could probably do it. The difficult part is landing on the Moon safely, the really hard part is taking off again.
Neither does the US, but that will change soon.
#89 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Russia+Europe sign deal to build six seater Lunar Craft! :D » 2008-05-15 13:38:57
Why teh fuk not?
It better that two or three nations go and explore than just the one. Space exploration and industry will develop faster that way.
We all co-operate already with ISS, so why not for the Moon!
If the US ever decides to pull out of manned Moon exploration, atleast somebody will have the capabilities to continue it!
#90 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Russia+Europe sign deal to build six seater Lunar Craft! :D » 2008-05-15 12:51:00
Sure, if it's true it's good news, but this is reported as "travel" to the Moon, it won't be a landing.
That doesn't necessarily mean it can't land. They just didn't specify.
Its very unlikely that a landing capabilty wouldn't be developed. Russia and Europe both have plans for moon missions in that time frame. Its doubtful that they're going there to just orbit the Moon since robots can do that for much much cheaper.
Anyways, there is more to the story here: http://space.newscientist.com/article/d … rizon.html
#91 Re: Not So Free Chat » Perspective » 2008-05-15 12:08:23
I think they should send the Army!
They're supposedly trained for the hardest conditions and to survive with a bare minimum 
It would be a pretty positive way to serve the country without causing havok and death on Earth.
I'd rather see members of the armed forces (who are so regularily shitted upon by goverments) get the opportunity to see Moon/Mars than a few rich kids who effectively bribed their way there!
I think they would need a lot of training however. We would also need a more versatile suit design that allows for greater dexterity and nimbleness.
(a powered exoskeleton or mechanical counter pressure suit)
These guys expressed some interest in doing so:
#92 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Mass People Transport » 2008-05-15 11:58:56
There are no fail safe Nuclear Technologies and if a serious accident does occur, the consequences can be dire and effect for generations. Boiler explosions don't disperse radioactive particles for miles and irradiate everything so its uninhabitable for centuries.
We should be phasing out Fission and prepare for Fusion power. Fusion reactors will produce far more power and don't suffer the problems of a run away chain reaction that causes a meltdown.
It is very likely that Fusion power will be achieved by the time colonizing outerspace is even possible.
ITER plans to achieve break even by 2030's. ESA and NASA are planning to land the first humans on Mars in the mid 2030's!
If ITER doesn't achieve it first, Robert Bussard's Polywell has a good shot at succeeding.
#93 Re: Not So Free Chat » Did Iran become a player in space ? » 2008-05-15 10:15:23
A consequence of the Iraq war was that global terrorism increased six-fold!! Thats even if you exclude attacks occuring in Iraq.
So much for not fanning the flames.
Constant agression and threats on the West part against Middle Eastern states is having the nice effect of creating support for Islamic extremism and proping up dicatorial regimes. When you invade Muslim states left right and center and give millitary support to a racist state like Israel - it raises a few eyebrows in the Middle East. It creates extreme hatred and fear. When under attack, Its not suprising that people rally behind dictators, extremists etc etc
To make the situation worse, Washington is more than happy to prop up and support dictatorial regimes like in Egypt and Saudi Arabia. They signed a $20 Billion weapons deal with the Kingdom.
Well the situation has been a pretty boring repeat of all the wrong policies for a decades and its time they put someone in the Whitehouse who actually wants to stop terrorism or has a clue about how to do it!
#94 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » Solar Federal Republic » 2008-05-15 09:52:40
This evolution would be intelligently controlled though. The EPs would be whatever they wanted to be, if the first EPs were humanlike, I think it is probable that they would want to retain their humanlike characteristics. I doubt they would suddenly want to be spiderlike aliens for instance. We determine what the initial EPs will be like, so we had better choose carefully. I'd rather they think of themselves as one of us initially, give them a human psychology and a human physical form within their own simulations, then they will more likely think of themselves as one of us rather than as our replacements.
The problem is that there will never be complete control over AI. Those rules will be effective for all of 2 seconds because somebody somewhere will push the boundaries and free the robots from their mental shackles.
Human curiosity (and carelessness) guarantees this will happen.
#95 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Russia+Europe sign deal to build six seater Lunar Craft! :D » 2008-05-15 09:47:25
LOL
Well, If all goes well this will be pretty awesome.
When I heard that both ESA and Russia had plans to go to the Moon and Mars by x date, I was suspicious because they're weren't even talking about developing the necessary craft nor had they anywhere near the capability.
This puts me at ease a little. Having more than one nation capable of landing on the Moon will be good for a space economy and settlement.
#96 Re: Not So Free Chat » Perspective » 2008-05-15 09:42:06
How about, as long as you're arguing blue-sky efforts to colonize the Moon, say, or even Mars: a space cooperative where everyone directly involved works for room and board without wages beyond what it takes to subsist upon within a self-contained community devoted to the success of that fixed objective? I bet the costs would go down 90%, making donated finances from a million space nuts like me adequate to pay for the project.
Interesting idea. I don't think your work in the space community would ever make back the money it took to send you and support you there but volunteering and co-operation is always good. I reckon that space will be very wasteful for a few decades. It'll require an almost Stalin like approach to get it into good shape (5 Year plans), but once its developed on a large scale, it will pay off big time!!
Space settlement will require a lot of co-operation amongst people. The dangers of it are so extreme that being selfish and careless in one's actions could potentially kill everyone involved. I don't think the 'wild west' attitude to space will get you very far.
#97 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Mass People Transport » 2008-05-15 09:29:42
It can be done, but it shouldn't be done, nor is it necessary. And people need to get over their fear of nuclear energy, their fear is unjustified and stupid. Stupid people probably won't take the risk of a Mars flight nuclear or no.
Its not stupid and its pretty justified. Nuclear technology is inherently dangerous and several serious accidents have occured because of it. More accidents will happen.
#98 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » ID is the best theory at the moment. » 2008-05-15 09:23:35
Meh, fossils aren't a very likely thing to happen. It requires very specific conditions. Tyrannosaurs where a pretty successful species that lasted millions of years, but we have only a few complete specimens.
If a mutation is very unfavourable, that species isn't going to last very long. It will be probably be weeded out before it even gets a chance to be fossilized.
What can be seen from the fossil record is that before humans, several species were gradually becoming more like homo sapiens and less like more primitive primates (like Chimpanzees) All those species aren't around anymore!
Do the ID'ers want to explain why I still have an appendix?
#99 Re: Civilization and Culture » Artist in residence. » 2008-05-15 09:14:26
But pictures don't capture the essence of being on Mars, which will be invaluable to get support for colonisation.
I think there are better ways to capture the essence of Mars than pictures. A documentary (like those Richard Attenborough style yokeys) would do a great job of it. Use small robotic drone planes to record dramatic flybies of interesting Martian terrain like the volcanos, canyons, poles and craters!!
Most images of the Red Planet so far have been black and white stills.
We need a true colour video documentary of the Red Planet and the lives of colonists there. Nobody knows what Mars sounds like, we need to get a microphone up there!!
#100 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Russia+Europe sign deal to build six seater Lunar Craft! :D » 2008-05-15 08:59:15
http://www.physorg.com/news129984649.html
All I can say is groovy, and I hope it doesn't get too delayed!