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Well here I go.
Probably you are mostly correct.
It would depend on the worldwide price of oil, internal USA economics, politics, and the rise of alternative energy.
I see that the US is getting ready to try to penetrate the European natural gas market, so that is relatively new. That gas comes I suppose largely from shale oil. They are struggling to get sufficient markets for the gas. So, it is an example of export of hydrocarbons. Coal is/was also.
Oil Shale is being utilized.
http://globaloilshale.com/?page_id=420
For this, they think they need $80.00 oil prices.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news … -boom.html
And yet a company is trying to establish an extraction in Utah. The technology is based on Estonian methods.
http://www.ksl.com/?sid=39229149&nid=14 … -oil-shale
Maybe it will go bust, it sure isn't popular with everyone.
I am encouraged by the above effort, have misgivings about it's acceptance, and probability of success, but it points in a direction. Someone must think they can make money doing it.
But I want something more. I want to put the pollution to work in E.O.R.
http://neori.org/resources-on-co2-eor/h … eor-works/
Today, most of the CO2 used in EOR operations is from natural underground ‘domes’ of CO2. With the natural supply of CO2 limited, man-made CO2 from the captured CO2 emissions of power plants and industrial facilities (e.g., fertilizer production,ethanol production, cement and steel plants) can be used to boost oil production through EOR. Once CO2 is captured from these facilities, it is compressed and transported by pipeline to oil fields.
Primary Production refers to a new oil field discovery where production wells are drilled into a geological formation and oil or gas is produced using the pent-up energy of the fluids in the reservoir.
At the end of primary production a considerable amount of the oil remains in place, with sometimes as much as 80-90 percent still “trapped” in the pore spaces of the reservoir. (Melzer, 2012)
If an oil field is not abandoned after primary production, it moves into a secondary production phase wherein a substance (usually water) is injected to repressurize the formation. New injection wells are drilled or converted from producing wells, and the injected fluid sweeps oil to the remaining producing wells. Secondary production could yield up to an equal or greater amount of oil from primary production. But this has the potential to ultimately leave 50-70 percent of the original oil remaining in the reservoir since much of the oil is bypassed by the water that does not mix with the oil. (Melzer, 2012)
Primary and secondary production are sometimes referred to as “conventional” oil production practices.
During tertiary production, oil field operators use an injectant (usually CO2) to react with the oil to change its properties and allow it to flow more freely within the reservoir. Almost pure CO2 (>95 percent of the overall composition) has the property of mixing with oil to swell it, make it lighter, detach it from the rock surfaces, and cause the oil to flow more freely within the reservoir to producer wells. In a closed loop system, CO2 mixed with recovered oil is separated in above-ground equipment for reinjection. CO2-EOR typically produces between 4-15 percent of the original oil in place. (ARI, 2010)
CO2 is in limited supply from its traditional sources. Of course if you could get it from power plants or coal, that would be an option, but I believe that Coal is being phased out and replaced by natural gas, and it would take a lot of infrastructure to gather it. You could pull it from the atmosphere, but I think that will prove to be expensive.
On other continents, they could do E.O.R. but I believe that most places don't have CO2 from dome formations, and for North America that supply is limited.
I am not an oil person at all, but I will describe a process which could be technologically possible, but I am not going to claim that it will become economically possible.
Use horizontal drilling and fracking deep down in the Oil Shale deposits, inject supercritical CO2 into them at a high temperature, extract the product, upgrade it with hydrogen from natural gas.
For the heating energy, use a solar power tower. So, it would be partially solar energy, and you would overcome one of the limitations of solar power towers, by not needing to store energy, or convert it to electricity. Simple heating of pressurized CO2.
Then upgrade it to a fluid you can flow through a pipeline using Hydrogen, and perhaps that process could involve solar heat as well. I don't know that much about refineries, so I am not sure about that one.
Then pipe the high Carbon oil to an E.O.R. site, and upgrade the oil further, extracting excess Carbon for CO2, possibly handling the Sulfur the same way (Not sure that can work). Use the result for E.O.R. and extract extra oil from existing oil plays.
Export a low Carbon oil for sale.
So Carbon is used against itself to reduce Carbon emissions, by producing a low Carbon product, which I presume is easier to transfer to another location than Liquid Natural Gas would be. If this then replaces Coal burned in Europe or Asia, then you have reduced Carbon emissions world wide.
Economical? Perhaps not. But remember that Shale Oil was expected to be a high cost oil, and it is now medium cost heading for low cost.
And again, someone is building a Oil Shale extraction process in Utah, and they must think they can turn a buck. As I said, maybe it's not going to work out, but for now it is a positive indicator.
If Peter Zeihan turns out to be right, there will be a two tier oil market on the planet. North American (Or much of it) and non North American. So, while the USA might have oil priced at $50.00 (Speculative), the rest of the world might have oil priced at $100.00, so then politics would enter the picture. A two tier situation has existed in petro states, so, I think it might be possible here, since with a lower price for energy here (As we currently have), our industry (Which employs voters), would have an economic advantage. Other petro states have not been able to make much use of those advantages they might have had, because of cultural issues, lack of skilled labor, lack of water and so on. But we might. It will depend on political pressures, and how the local industries might feel about it.
As for electric cars, and electrical grids with advanced storage methods, I am all for it. But still we have a whole planet where everyone wants to have it all. Desire for energy will grow. The ability for many places to buy it may not.
So, with alternative energy emerging, perhaps hydrocarbons will largely get stranded without a market, but I am betting that demand will grow, and at the same time the USA will have an excess of Hydrocarbons to export. Maybe not from Oil Shale/Oil Shale CO2 EOR though. Time will tell.
I like to look at possibilities, but I don't make myself a slave to a certain outcome.
In reality, I like the idea of horizontal drilling and fracking, as I think it could eventually evolve into a process to extract metals from the deeps. Minerals which will eventually be in very short supply.
If we want stuff, we have to get it from somewhere, somehow.
Blah Blah Blah Blah
I'm retired, I don't need Oil Shale much. I will probably be dead by then.
https://nworeport.me/2016/08/16/earth-l … iscovered/
I couldn't resist, I was going to wait for someone else to post about this, but I've done it myself.
Since I have, I will mention that if true, it will certainly be an awesome discovery.
The nearest star system, a mass similar to Earth I presume, a flare type "M" dwarf star, and most likely tidal locked I would think.
I am hoping that there will be more planets in the system, but I believe from what I have read, that previous studies have ruled out any gas giants, ice giants, or super Earths.
If I were to dream, I would hope for another terrestrial planet further out, with a synchronous orbital relationship to the possible discovered planet. This would be similar to the Io, Europa, Ganymede setup, where the orbits are synchronized, and Io is volcanic because of it, and Europa, and Ganymede are thought to have oceans.
Proxima Centauri is expected to have a lifetime of 4 trillion years I have read. Unfortunately the discoverers are the same people who said they found a hot Earth around one of Proxima's presumed sibling stars of Alpha-Centauri. I believe that that claimed discovery is strongly in dispute at this time.
What I am interested in is how Earth like planets might develop in such an environment, and I am also as I said hoping that there will be a cold sibling planet surrounded by a Nitrogen dominated atmosphere, and that that planet might have some significant volcanism from tidal stretching. Ideally both planets would be possible to think about eventual human habitation.
And such a nearby system if it has such a planet/planets, would go a long way towards suggesting how habitable "M" star systems can be, and how different.
I think Venus and Titan are the two best candidates for experimentation (While wishing for Mars).
It seems to me that Methane is at a tipping point on Titan, just a little more energy could start a greenhouse effect warming the moon further. It would be nice if the smog could be converted as raw material into floating "H.W.M." components, that would get rid of the anti-greenhouse effect that the smog induces. If the ground conditions could reach those of Antarctica, outside work would be a reasonable action by humans, provided they had protective cold gear and breathing apparatus.
From there, if I were doing it I would build an enormous Taurus on stilts, which would partially float in the atmosphere, and would circle the moon Titan. And that would likely be a reasonably stable setup for some time as it would take a long time for the elevated temperatures on the surface to exhibit effects deep down, below the surface.
But of course life has to be searched for first, and absolutely some kind of fantastic space propulsion has to be created.
I do think that Titan may be a good place to first try to use vacuum bubbles. Thick atmosphere, low gravity.
Actually, if you are scouting to get "Ground Truth", I would recommend a rather small still which would use freezing and evaporation to minimize labor, and maximize results.
A brine ice "Pot" could be connected with a plastic tube to a vapor receiver pot.
The brine pot could be loaded with mined ice, and also some waste water. It would use solar collection methods to achieve a higher average temperature than the receiver pot. The receiver pot could be kept in the shadows, and also fabricated to be colder than the brine pot over average time.
The connecting tube could run horizontally between them and on it top portions have reasonable transparency. On its bottom, a solar energy collecting opaque coloration. The connecting tube could be made of a plastic which includes Fluorine chemistry for the plastic film.
The film would not block UV, but that is fine as you would not want critters growing in your still anyway, and such a plastic would have longer term stability under Martian conditions than other films.
The processing of water would be batch. You would fill the brine pot with mined water, or briny water from a RSL, you could also add recycle discard water to that. That would constitute the largest amount of manual labor for this system other than moving it to another location.
The whole system could work under rather low pressures, not much higher than the atmospheric pressure on Mars, so that would reduce the rigors that the system would endure.
The two pots would have quick disconnect and reconnect fittings, being attached to the horizontal tube as required to do the process.
A liquid phase of water would not be required, but depending on location, it could occur within a narrow range of temperatures and pressures which might occur inside the device when it was fully deployed for desalinization.
The two devices which would "Overheat" would be the "Brine Pot" and the "Horizontal Tube". They would "Overheat" during the days sunshine.
The "Receiver Pot / Condenser Pot would condense the vapors created by the overheated "Other" elements of the system, due to the arrangement to typically have it be colder than the other two elements, at least during the day.
The brine pot could be disconnected periodically, to scrape it clean of residual solids. This could occur outside of the "Habitat".
The "Receiver Pot / Condenser Pot" could be disconnected, and brought into the habitat to thaw out, producing distilled water. Distilled water is not the best water to drink, so additives would be brought from Earth, which would be a very small burden I think as it should not require much of it by weight.
When moving to another "Campsite", the Condenser Pot should be smaller than the Brine Pot, so that they will take minimum space, and the horizontal connecting tube should be foldable to go inside the condenser pot to minimize volume consumed.
In addition, an inflatable bag should be attached, which would be deflated at night, but would inflate as the system pressurized due to solar heating. The bags purpose would be to receive the volume of air in the system during the day, so that what would be in the heated sections would be more materials to process and steam. This would help to reduce an "Air Bound" situation for the steam path, increasing efficiency.
....
As for the minimization of my previous posts, I have to say, that when you first calibrate a device, you don't do it by "Fine Adjustments".
You might start by a coarse adjustment, then fine adjustments.
So, if you are setting up a first permanent base, you should consider what expansion in the future would look like, because it is not a good idea to expend a lot of effort to build a first permanent base that will not fit into the future. Maybe there would be a reason to do so, but I suggest they it is a thing to ponder.
....
Although I previously suggested vapor tubes for transport of bulk water from source to usage, I am also aware of ideas involving tossing ice blocks as sub-orbital transport from source to use, but of course your aim would need to be precise, or your habitat would get very serious damage. I believe "Antius" suggested the projectiles.
I would suggest a combination of methods. Project the ice blocks to a nearby location, and use vapor tubes to complete the transfer to the usage site. This would reduce the need for precision accuracy for the projectiles. It might also be efficient, and helpful to reducing the investment in vapor transport tubes.
I think you want to probe a salt pan if you are looking for extinct life or existing life.
http://themis.asu.edu/news/salt-deposit … -highlands
Salt deposits found in Martian highlands
Scientists using a camera designed and operated at Arizona State University's Mars Space Flight Facility have discovered the first evidence for deposits of chloride minerals - salts - in numerous places on Mars. These deposits, say the scientists, show where water was once abundant and may also provide evidence for the existence of former Martian life.
A team of scientists led by Mikki Osterloo, of the University of Hawaii, used data from the Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) on NASA's Mars Odyssey orbiter to discover and map the Martian chloride deposits. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif., manages the Mars Odyssey mission for NASA's Science Mission Directorate.
Developed at Arizona State University, THEMIS is a multi-wavelength camera that takes images in five visual bands and 10 infrared ones. At infrared wavelengths, the smallest details THEMIS can see on the Martian surface are 330 feet (100 meters) wide.
The scientists found about 200 individual places in the Martian southern hemisphere that show spectral characteristics consistent with chloride minerals. These salt deposits occur in the middle to low latitudes all around the planet within ancient, heavily cratered terrain. The team's report appears in the March 21, 2008 issue of the scientific journal Science.
Besides Osterloo, the team includes Philip Christensen, Joshua Bandfield, and Alice Baldridge of Arizona State University's Mars Space Flight Facility; Victoria Hamilton and Scott Anderson of the University of Hawaii; Timothy Glotch of Stony Brook University; and Livio Tornabene of the University of Arizona.
Osterloo found the sites by looking through thousands of THEMIS images processed to reveal, in false colors, compositional differences on the Martian surface. As she explains, "I started noting these sites because they showed up bright blue in one set of images, green in a second set, and yellow-orange in a third."
Says team member Christensen, "THEMIS gives us a good look at the thermal infrared, the best part of the spectrum for identifying salt minerals by remote sensing from orbit." When plotted on a global map of Mars, the chloride sites appeared only in the southern highlands, the most ancient rocks on Mars.
Lay of the Land
Christensen goes on to characterize the sites' geological setting. "Many of the deposits lie in basins with channels leading into them," he says. "This is the kind of feature, like salt-pan deposits on Earth, that's consistent with water flowing in over a long time."
Christensen, a Regents' Professor of Geological Sciences at ASU's School of Earth and Space Exploration in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, designed THEMIS and is the instrument's principal investigator.
Osterloo notes, "The deposits range in area from about one square kilometer to about 25 square kilometers," or about 0.4 square mile to about 10 square miles. She adds, "Because the deposits appear to be disconnected from each other, we don't think they all came from one big, global body of surface water." Instead, she says, "They could come from groundwater reaching the surface in low spots. The water would evaporate and leave mineral deposits, which build up over years."
The scientists think the salt deposits formed mostly in the middle to late Noachian epoch, a time that researchers have dated to about 3.9 to 3.5 billion years ago. Several lines of evidence suggest that Mars then had intermittent periods of substantially wetter and warmer conditions than today's dry, frigid climate.
Looking for Life
Up to now, scientists looking for evidence of past life on Mars have focused mainly on a handful of places that show evidence of clay or sulfate minerals. The reasoning is that clays indicate weathering by water and that sulfates may form by water evaporation. The new research, however, suggests an alternative mineral target to explore for biological remains.
Says Christensen, "By their nature, salt deposits point to a lot of water, which could potentially remain standing in pools as it evaporates." That's crucial, he says. "For life, it's all about a habitat that endures for some time."
There may also be a concentrating effect, Christensen adds. "The deposits lie in what are probably sedimentary basins. If you look upstream, you might find only a trace of organic materials because they're thinly dispersed." But over a long period of time, he explains, "The water flowing into a basin can concentrate the organic materials and they could be well preserved in the salt."
Whether or not the Red Planet ever had life is the biggest scientific question driving Mars research. On Earth, salt has proven remarkably good at preserving organic material. For example, bacteria have been revived in the laboratory after being preserved in salt deposits for millions of years.
NASA is currently studying potential landing sites for its Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), a new-generation rover due for launch in fall 2011. Sites featuring clay deposits number heavily in the short-list of candidate places to send the rover.
Christensen says, "Scientists have studied Martian clay mineral sites for years now, and it's natural they should be considered as targets for the Mars Science Laboratory rover. However, the discovery of chloride minerals in topographic basins within the oldest rocks on Mars should also be considered as an alternative mineralogy for MSL or future rovers to explore."
"This discovery demonstrates the continuing value of the Odyssey science mission, now entering its seventh year," says Jeffrey Plaut, Odyssey project scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. "The more we look at Mars, the more fascinating a place it becomes."
Blue marks a deposit of chloride (salt) minerals in the southern highlands of Mars in this THEMIS false-color image which highlights mineral composition differences. Using THEMIS, researchers have found more than 200 such features. These deposits typically lie within topographic depressions and suggest that Mars was much wetter long ago. The black rectangle shows the outline of a closeup view (below); 10 kilometers equals 6.2 miles. (Click on the image for a 5.6 MB version.)
NASA/JPL/Arizona State University/University of Hawaii
With colors close to its natural appearance, the chloride mineral deposit looks bright in tone, like salt pans on Earth. The deposit seems to be emerging as overlying material erodes away. Inset boxes show two areas (below) in greater detail, revealing cracks that formed as the salt deposit dried. One kilometer equals 0.6 mile and 100 meters is 110 yards.NASA/JPL/Arizona State University/University of Hawaii/University of Arizona
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If I understand guidance will not be very good for these probes, so, maybe a larger salt pan is a good target.
What they might have to offer:
1) Layers of buried organic materials perhaps laid down during flooding.
2) Preservation of the deep layers of organic materials (If existing), by salt.
3) Actual possibility of seasonally habitable moisturized and warmed salt pans in some cases, where you might even hope to find existing life.
4) A water source for humans at not too high a latitude if #3 comes back false.
Your Iron probes should work well for digging a hole, and splashing organic layers around.
But there are lots of salt pans, and each one could endure many hits I am sure, so I would not be shy about using alternate probes which have a flammable metal in their core, to get some additional chemistry information, if that is worth the money.
As for the possibility of existing life, there would have been many challenges to it's continuity, but I think the salt pans are ideal for sheltering life from those upsets.
The upsets I can think of are:
1) Ice ages and arid periods, with possible lower atmospheric pressure for long periods of time.
2) Acid water.
3) Major impactor events which would heat things up, and possibly sterilize the surface. Unlike the Earth where a thick atmosphere and vast oceans would help to temper such an event, Mars could temporarily turn into a steam autoclave on the surface. Of course this might also temporarily thicken the atmosphere, and generate liquid water, which are potentially life giving.
The deepest layers of the salt pans might be some protection, and then if liquid water flowed into them of course from that time, life would be encouraged.
Another route for survival earlier in the history of Mars could have been springs, which might have lasted late into the fluvial period. An Oasis such as that draining into a salt pan might provide some warming, and of course some water, and as for acid water perhaps a buffering of the acidity, as the acid water would flow through underground cracks, and under permafrost and would encounter rocks that were not as acid.
Such springs might have connected with still existing or extinct aquifers, where life might also have held on, to repopulate the salt pans after a hostile event.
And then there exists a possibility that a spore mode in the condition of dry cold salt could have help to preserve life for a better time.
So, now your iron balls might actually provide food to life in the salt pan. It is not unthinkable that some member of a microbial biological community would specialize in eating iron.
So, I additionally suggest projectiles that would intentionally feed microbes. Of course solid iron, but perhaps also hollow probes filled with iron particles.
And perhaps iron balls filled with Carbon, so in case a type of microbe specializes in processing Carbon, that could be stimulated.
It is not unreasonable that microbes in a salt pan might live off of the O2 and CO in the atmosphere, and also other Carbon based microbes, so perhaps they could process Carbon.
The results of microbes eating Iron or Carbon might be the emission of gasses, or an unexpected color progression in the materials deposited.
And of course Spacenut could have his seismic data.
I would think it might be an outside option to even go and collect organic samples with a rover, if at some point sufficient indication says that life no longer exists in the salt pans.
*Iron and Carbon and combustible metals could be sterilized by heat and other methods, so, the projectile method to me seems like a good option.
Ya, I should stop reading this stuff, it makes me return.
So, if you were to do the iron balls, I would suppose that that might be in many locations. I support the use of the iron impactors for the reasons Elderchild mentioned.
Buy the dialog here made me wonder if you could also use an alternate impactor, composed of an iron or steel shell, and a reactive alkali metal core. For the cases where you might want to further study evidence revealed by the iron impactors of a buried ice deposite.
I would expect that the iron or steel shell would break apart, or could be engineered to break apart in a specific way, and that would expose a metal like Sodium to the substances of Mars in the impact location. I might think that a night side impact would be best for this, because you could hope to detect the flash, if there is one, and might analyze the light spectrum of that, to hope to determine what chemical reaction occurred. I am open to rebuttal, if anyone feels that this is not a worthwhile thing to speculate on.
I will respond. I am not sure what scale your device is in your mind.
It most likely is a starter device, and in that case you would like to perhaps only use the freeze thaw method, to service a very small population of humans. In that case I am imagining that you are contemplating digging ice out of the ground, or obtaining it's vapors by some heating method. Or perhaps extraction from a RSL.
Scaling up, you could go all the way to extracting ice from the polar caps, and moving it to a more favorable location. That would be the maximum scale, I think.
But if there are indeed fossil ice deposits in the rift valley, and perhaps similarly at other locations of a similar latitude, then you might use a vacuum line to transport it from the extracting point to the location of use. As for discarding some of the water, there are maybe some useful things to do with that, but I will not deviate to that.
I have been pondering "Elon Musk's" hyper loop system. I have been considering how the tubing might be used to lift water to high elevations in mountains, from a low elevation water source.
The hyper loop system appears to be intended to move people and perhaps cargo. But what if it just moved a cargo, namely water vapor, at a very high speed.
In the Earth version of this, I would anticipate using wind power in the mountains, to transfer vacuum into the tube. I do have a version where cryogenics would be involved, but I won't bother with that.
So presumably, vapor pressure generated by water heated would supply the vapor. Such a system would become air bound, due to small components of non-condensing gasses which would accumulate, but as I indicated windmills would supply the vacuum, so by various methods it should be workable.
Although the vapor would be thin, it would travel at a very high speed, perhaps near the speed of sound, and this would help to keep the interior of the vapor tube warm, inhibiting condensation.
For the Mars version, I would anticipate deep chilling a strong solution of brine with night time temperatures, and quenching the water vapor into it.
In this version, I would anticipate that you would have a sizable impoundment of water, such as an ice covered lake. So, it is possible that if you had a biological activity in that lake somewhere, that might absorb some or all of the non-condensable gasses (CO2, N2, etc.) by using their metabolism. Otherwise a degassing process would be needed, which should not be too harsh a burden.
As for the input side, I would imagine solar heat used to produce a liquid, perhaps, and most likely this would need to be degassed before inputting into the vapor tube. But on Mars, the air pressure is not very high, so again I do not think that that burden would be overwhelming.
Ideally a long term major sources of fossil ice would be available at the equator, but eventually, perhaps during a summer season, it might be possible to go full scale with such a system, and draw water vapor from the poles, and to the equator, to provide very major ice covered bodies of water.
Then perhaps radiator / solar collectors could be distributed on the ice at periodic intervals.

I am aware that the above representation cannot be highly pressurized without distorting it's shape. It is just a place holder to represent versions which would be compatible with the actual physical circumstances that need to be handled.
But with such devices, you could have sections of ice which would experience a freeze/thaw cycle, like on the north polar ice pack. Perhaps they would actually be cylindrical, or pseudo cone shaped.
A system like that could support an electrical system, either using brine / fresh water, or steam driven.
And really I did not previously mention it, but during the night, vapors would migrate from the ice surfaces, and condense as frost on the interior surfaces of the Monolith, cylinder, or pseudo cone. By day then that might thaw, and then provide something like a distilled water.
And if the surface of the ice were to melt during the day, then you would have your normal water which you could siphon off for use.
I will reply to this, although, I should be taking care of other things.
Just my notions, not enforceable in any way.
http://dailyreckoning.com/oil-shale-reserves/
America’s oil shale reserves are enormous, totaling at least 1.5 trillion barrels of oil. That’s five times the
reserves of Saudi Arabia! And yet, no one is producing commercial quantities of oil from these vast deposits. All that oil is still sitting right where God left it, buried under the vast landscapes of Colorado and Wyoming.
Oil Shale Reserves: A Congressional Legacy
Most of the nation’s oil shale reserves rest under the control of the U.S. government – a legacy of a 95-year old Congressional Act. In 1910, Congress passed the Pickett Act, which authorized President Taft to set aside oil- bearing land in California and Wyoming as potential sources of fuel for the U.S. Navy. Taft did so right away. The Navy was in the process of switching from coal burning ships to oil burning ships. And the U.S. military, conscious of the expanding role of America in the world, needed a dependable supply of fuel in case of a national emergency.
From 1910 to 1925 the Navy developed the Naval Petroleum and Oil Shale Reserves Program. The program became official in 1927 and President Roosevelt even expanded the scope of the program in 1942 as the U.S. geared up for war with Japan and Germany.
Several of the oil fields set aside for the nation’s first strategic reserve, particularly Elk Hills in California,
would go on to produce oil for the U.S. government. Elk Hills was eventually sold off to Occidental Petroleum for $3.65 billion in 1998 in the largest privatization in U.S. history. The shale reserves, however, still remain, locked 1,000 feet underground in the Colorado desert.
If American culture were to remain static, I would agree with you that when and if this reserve becomes viable as a resource, most likely it would be gifted out to the powerful, with very little return to the public.
However I am a baby boomer. Our psychology is to be spiritual, and not as concerned about material goods, since we grew up in a an era of relative plenty. This was the legacy of the Hero generation which they set up. They were on the winning end of WWII. Their psychology did not tolerate cheaters, fanaglers, thieves and such. They required each person to walk on two paws only. They were very materialistic and not that spiritual.
Generation X followed the baby boomers, they are the equivalent of Nomads. They are survivors, and very clever at it, having gown up in the aftermath of what the Artists and Babyboomers have left as a residual. They probably tolerate jungle behaviors, but I don't think they like it.
Generation Y is the new Hero generation, if I don't have this screwed up. They again will be materialistic, and not very spiritual, and they will hunt down cheaters like a pack of wolfs and without much mercy. But they will walk on two paws. At least this is my expectation from reading "The 4th turning".
Probably the reason that our monsters at the top are running wild just now, is that the old "Hero's" are mostly out of power by now.
The Hero's were the ones who set up labor unions, SSI, and Medicare, I believe.
As for the Oil Shale, if it ever is tapped, there are many ways to distribute that including taxes, and jobs, and business profits, so I would not expect a nationalized process. (That would be just stupid).
You could be right about business interests making our social order remove all bans on exporting oil, but as I have said, the "Y's" are materialistic, and they will want a cut of the action, in terms of real wealth, as suggested in the following article.
http://www.cfr.org/oil/case-allowing-us … rts/p31005
But they will be labor oriented, and I expect they will want the advantage of cheaper oil and natural gas, to further encourage "Reshoring" in the North American economic sphere, and especially in the USA. They are likely to howl and bite, if their energy costs are lifted up to fill the pockets of the few.
I myself remember am a baby boomer. I've had my chances, and I seem to have enough, and as you get older other than medical costs, your wants go down, and cost you less. So, I will watch from a distance, if I watch at all.
If somehow my biological clock gets set back to 24 by very advanced medicine, perhaps I will get a job again, but not a stressful job. My needs would be small. I'd be looking for easy, but useful.
As for recycling plastics, I suppose that would be the good way to go. Then, indeed as it eventually will Oil will see a gradual sunset. That does not trouble me at all. But for now, I do believe that there is a whole world out there that wants it, and they also want similar to what we have. So, for now, Oil and Natural Gas are big still.
And by the way, the old "Hero's" were the ones who put us on the Moon. Therefore I have high hopes for generation "Y" to have the right values. This should be very interesting to anyone on this board, I would think.
"Y" won't really start getting significant power, perhaps not for 15 years.
What you see in the power circles in the USA now are the dinosaurs, waiting for an asteroid to hit, and it is on it's way.
And they can't stop it, although they will try.
Hence Bernie and Trump. (Not picking a favorite). Clinton may be it this time, but you can be sure that what follows will not be like her.
I like it Elderflower.
Ok, still posting, hope to quit soon.
OIL SHALE
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_shale
Oil shale, also known as kerogen shale, is an organic-rich fine-grained sedimentary rock containing kerogen (a solid mixture of organic chemical compounds) from which liquid hydrocarbons called shale oil (not to be confused with tight oil—crude oil occurring naturally in shales) can be produced. Shale oil is a substitute for conventional crude oil; however, extracting shale oil from oil shale is more costly than the production of conventional crude oil both financially and in terms of its environmental impact.[1] Deposits of oil shale occur around the world, including major deposits in the United States. Estimates of global deposits range from 4.8 to 5 trillion barrels (760×109 to 790×109 m3) of oil in place.[2][3]
Heating oil shale to a sufficiently high temperature causes the chemical process of pyrolysis to yield a vapor. Upon cooling the vapor, the liquid shale oil—an unconventional oil—is separated from combustible oil-shale gas (the term shale gas can also refer to gas occurring naturally in shales). Oil shale can also be burned directly in furnaces as a low-grade fuel for power generation and district heating or used as a raw material in chemical and construction-materials processing.[4]
Oil shale gains attention as a potential abundant source of oil whenever the price of crude oil rises.[5][6] At the same time, oil-shale mining and processing raise a number of environmental concerns, such as land use, waste disposal, water use, waste-water management, greenhouse-gas emissions and air pollution.[7][8] Estonia and China have well-established oil shale industries, and Brazil, Germany, and Russia also utilize oil shale.[9]
General composition of oil shales constitutes inorganic matrix, bitumens, and kerogen. Oil shales differ from oil-bearing shales, shale deposits that contain petroleum (tight oil) that is sometimes produced from drilled wells. Examples of oil-bearing shales are the Bakken Formation, Pierre Shale, Niobrara Formation, and Eagle Ford Formation.
From my point of view, I would like to see an experiment in facking it like with shale oil, but using supercritical CO2 at high temperatures.
The high temperatures being generated by a solar power tower, I would hope. The location where our Oil Shale oil is has good solar energy I believe, and a lack of water, so using supercritical CO2 seems like something to try. Plus with horizontal drilling and fracking, it seems to me that you would be able to access Oil Shale which is very deep. To help protect the environment, perhaps leaving a layer of rock untouched above it would be helpful.
Cleaning contaminants, and also adding Hydrogen would be helpful.
If Peter Zeihan is correct, then the price of oil long term will be low in North America, but is likely to rise high again elsewhere.
The North American public is likely to want a cut of the benefits from Oil Shale, Shale Oil, and Shale Gas. I don't know how that would work out politically or economically, but I am going suggest that there is no reason to not sell oil and gas cheep here in the local markets, and then to sell it for a higher price in the international market, if in fact Peter Zeihan's thinking turns out to be correct. Technically the government owns most of the Oil Shale, and in theory, so the American public owns it, but of course we are often more treated as if we are property these days, but I guess politically, it might be reasonable to deviate from a pure free market method, and impose a two market strategy, where local oil is less costly than international oil (If the international market allows it). Then of course the companies allowed to access the oil would have to make a reasonable profit, or it could not happen at all.
So, it is not necessarily so that Oil Shale could not be marketed for a profit.
As a byproduct of adding Hydrogen to Oil Shale from Natural Gas, to upgrade it to a higher quality oil, CO2 would be produced, but that is a product which would be useful in Supercritical fracking of both Oil Shale and Shale oil, and it would be useful to rejuvenate oil traditional oil fields.
But in the end economics will rule, with some local interference from political concerns.
The Oil sources which are currently taken off market are deep water projects, and Venezuela, Nigeria and the like.
Again, while some persons do not like producing any CO2, if other countries burn coal because they cannot get high grade oil or natural gas at a price, then they may and do very well resort to coal, and high Carbon oils. So from a global perspective, and global warming if it is real is such a perspective, producing large quantities of lower Carbon oil is a service to the global situation. (And it might help North Americans have many economic benefits). Perhaps a win win thing.
I know that many want to go to alternative energy, and that's fine with me, as it becomes real. But you still have to make plastics and so on.
Oh, and when you are done fracking, you might have an excellent underground solar storage facility, where high heat can be stored in the rocks, to produce a "Hydrothermal" energy generating process.
And this whole thing goes hand in hand with storing CO2 underground.
.....
And another thing. Are members aware that due to the elevated amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, plants around the globe do not have to open their stomata as much as before to get the Carbon they want? This then causes them to require less water, because they do not have to sacrifice as much water through their stomata in order to get Carbon.
Not everything about elevated CO2 is bad.
Now I will stop posting for a while, I hope.
First of all may I apologize to the other previous posters, I did not intend to end your participation, and I hope you will continue.
That is a good reminder, a statement which provides awareness of efficiency, which is always important.
But, efficiency should be balanced against capability, and opportunity.
Lets say I had a shopping list. I want the following:
1) Survival water (Water I can get even in most equipment failure modes, to continue life).
2) Normal Drinking water (Water which is healthy to use long term).
3) Wash water (Water to clean average things, my body for instance).
4) Distilled water, for industrial uses, Chemical processes, etc.
5) An electrical source which works 24/7 year around (Barring systems failures).
6) A process to recycle used water, or at least "Grey Water".
7) Biological use of Martian O2 & CO for whatever useful substances that could produce.
A question to you then:
If I suggest a containment, which includes a pool of brine, covered with ice, and in this case having a roof which allows daily thermal cycles to be felt inside the containment, the hot and the cold, is that in line which what you are describing? I see that this is likely to be implemented at a low Martian latitude, so as to have a ~24+ hour cycle?
If this is similar to your plan, I can see then how you might produce useful water ice, and you might extract that mechanically, and then melt it, with your 1/5 energy cost, to produce some useful water. This water might satisfy items 1, 2, and 3. I am very supportive of that good notion you have produced (Presuming that I do understand what you intend).
But what if you could add capability, and expand efficiency?

Disclaimer: Apes not provided with your black monolith kit. ![]()
Now put a shiny surface on the ground around it, on the sunward sides, add insulation to it on the other sides.
Now inverted gutters around this object, as radiator fins, periodically from top to bottom, but angle them down a bit like a roaring 20's flapper dress.

Each gutter angled out more than the flaps on her dress, and of course the whole device black.
So, then a Radiator/Solar collector, sufficient to generate temperatures in it's interior significantly above freezing during at least part of the Martian day, and to also radiate heat to the universe at night, so the interior of the object (Hollow) to be experiencing large temperature cycles.
No moving parts so far.
To be useful however you would fill it with some atmospheric gas.
Of course then you might couple this, or many of them to your brine containment. To do that you will need ducts, and Fans/Pumps/Valves.
For evaporating ice, and then condensing water during the day, the process might be rather easy. You can either simply evaporate the surface of the ice, and then condense water from the air flow by using cold from the brine or the ice. Or you could actually form steam inside the solar collector by injecting water, that steam on encountering the ice would either condense to it or evaporate it depending on the balance of heating power, and the air pressure you are using. For the evaporating process, I would think rather low air pressures would work better, in the case of using steam. If you are simply to use air, then higher pressures might suit the situation since denser air can dissolve more water vapor into it.
For the nighttime cold sub cycle, you would either have to have a containment roof which could hold a higher air pressure, and pour very cold Martian nighttime cooled air onto the ice surface, or if your containment cannot hack higher pressures (Up to 1 bar), you might try to also have piping in the brine just under the ice which might conduct a cold liquid through them. Of course in that case the Radiator/Solar collector/(Monolith), would need to have similar tubing attached to it's insides. The piping would precool the brine and perhaps generate loose ice crystals, but in this case, where you would operate under low pressures, you would still want to radiate heat through the roof of the containment to process the ice slab itself.
Actually, if you were to just use Martian air, you might use higher pressure at night, and lower pressure during the day, and a steam process during the day.
So, now you should be able to satisfy "4) Distilled water, for industrial uses, Chemical processes, etc.".
If you did something like this, and energy processor which uses solar & day night energy, it produces brine and fresh water for you. (If it works
).
So, I would think you might want to add a process which will offer electrical power fairly well, on demand 24/7 (Barring a dust storm, or system failure).
5) An electrical source which works 24/7 year around (Barring systems failures).
And that then gets us to #6
6) A process to recycle used water, or at least "Grey Water".
Where at least "Grey Water" can be used instead of totally fresh water, allowing it to serve another useful purpose.
And if you should have more electricity than you need, could you use some of it to obtain O2 and CO from the Martian atmosphere for:
7) Biological use of Martian O2 & CO for whatever useful substances that could produce.
This then gets a bit nasty, but not too bad. In the process of generating electricity from your grey water and brine, the grey water gets salty, and do you dump it into the brine, or mix it into it, and if the mix is gentle enough, micro-organisms can live in it, so as to perhaps process it biologically. It would hopefully be unfriendly to organisms which come from the human body, so that the extreme organisms in the mix would eat them and get rid of a pathogen cycle. And to help this you may or may not introduce O2 and CO from the atmosphere.
The entire amount of O2 might be entirely consumed by the process, or not. If not then you might have a useful source of O2, with the CO entirely consumed by the micro-organisms.
And finally you might generate a organic material which is useful from the micro-organisms.
Life Support.
Note, I really want to back out of much more posting at NewMars for a time, as it is time consuming, and I have other necessary things to do. But I do enjoy it much, but I also fear that I annoy much as well.
As for your YODA picture, actually the presenters in a previous post, Liz Parrish, and Bill Andrews, for a joke I suppose say they want to change Betty White to 24 years old, and perhaps they might be able to if she lives long enough for treatments.
Hmmm....
You seem to love to dance in mine fields.
I think I will render onto Caesar that which is Caesars.
But we are supposedly in the winter of the 4th turning. In the middle of it supposedly. That 4th turning notion suggests we will have a strong national government when exiting it, no matter what the outcome.
However, I think that a very large shift is going to happen, and it will involve the ultimate failure of the 20th century residual methods which have been co-opted by alien powers, and it's recentering to a more American structure.
But for now they will not listen, rather they will try to figure out how to repress the change. In other words it was stupid for me to even say the above. But I never said I was that smart.![]()
I will add something I stumbled on recently:
This one is interesting as well:
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/288515.php
But this one is the one I was thinking of:
http://www.foxnews.com/health/2016/05/1 … eases.html
The authors of the study, published Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, treated telomere-disease patients who had a variety of conditions with a high dose of a synthetic androgen called danazol. The goal was to test whether the treatment would help keep telomeres intact longer. Instead, they saw them lengthen.
Studies suggest drugs for advanced lung, skin cancers extend patients' lives
Novavax's vaccine first to protect against common respiratory virus
FDA OKs immunotherapy drugs for bladder, blood cancers
The study’s results were surprising as the researchers were only expecting the rate at which telomeres fray to slow in response to androgens.
“This is an impressive study,” said Suneet Agarwal, a bone marrow failure specialist at Boston Children’s Hospital, who wasn’t involved in the research.
Although this article does not mention it there are negative side effects, particularly for women.
Acne, I think is one of the problems, and hair growth, and other things.
Still, it suggests that science may not be that far away from finding a way to lengthen telomers for the normal population.
This is desired, of course so they can put me back into the work force, and I can pay taxes ![]()
It's the pest again. I agree, that most likely the planet is warming, and most likely humans are helping to cause it to.
Some people think that that could also cause a new ice age eventually, due to increased precipitation at the poles, or the shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean circulation.
So, I see fracking as a standby method to warm the planet if necessary. Ideally CO2 would be stored in the wells, and hopefully would never be needed to be released, but in the eventuality of an unexpected onset of an Ice Age, a tool would be available to try to do something about it. Similarly, until it is exhausted Methane would be on standby for that purpose as well.
We cannot stop other nations from burning Carbon heavy fuels, so unless we can offer them a substitute better fuel at a reasonable price, we are along for the ride, whatever that will be.
But I also favor alternative energy. Hopefully it will eventually strongly reduce the use of Carbon heavy fuels.
I am a pest no doubt.
Anyway if you are going to use freezing as a step to purify brine to fresher water here is a way to make a power source in association with that process:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=el … ORM=VRDGAR
I think this is just one version in a family of developing processes, but it suggests a direction to take.
Some of these schemes also can use waste water as the fresh component.
Doing this however could introduce chemicals which might not entirely be pushed out of the freezing ice, so I would suggest that a simple heating process be used to produce distilled water as well. I would think that a very low pressure steam produced in a simple solar thermal collector would do this well.
Sublimating the surface of an already processed top of a ice sheet would actually require a lot of energy, since you would be going from solid to vapor, but the source of the energy would be simple, reliable, and very available during normal days.
I am not sure to what degree brine would help to eliminate some micro-organisms emitted by the human body and also industrial processes, but that might be a helpful effect as well.
Then there is the small amount of O2 and CO in the Martian atmosphere. If you had a somewhat extreme brine at the bottom of the process, you might support extreme micro-organisms in that brine which would process organic materials introduced by waste water. I believe there is 2 times as much O2 as CO, so there should be enough extra Oxygen to achieve that.
And the electrical source should work around the clock.
As for chipping ice from the top, that is not forbidden, as for some purposes, it would be pure enough.
I would want to see you continue to champion the vacuum balloon Karov, it would be a nice achievement.
I follow the subject above, and as I see it there are three basic notions of how to do it.
1) Telomere Extension (This is believed by it's champions to be a big potential to achieve the goal)
Bill Andrews & Liz Parrish.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=bi … ORM=VRDGAR
2) The body is an object to repair, after damage has occurred.
Aubrey De Grey.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Au … ORM=VRDGAR
3) A number of Longevity/Special Repair Genes can be stimulated by chemicals to better repair your body. Apparently inherited from ages ago. Epigenetic Method.
David Sinclair.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=da … ORM=VRDGAR
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetics
Why am I posting this? Well, I could just say I'm not ready to go to bed, or I could say that it would likely be good to not have any more ageing in your space population than you could not prevent, at least not until you had established a big enough bank roll to pay for it.
I do believe that Liz had indicated that some space agency had already contacted them to see if they could do anything about radiation damage.
The three groups mostly seem to be friendly and respectful of each other, at least as far as someone like I can detect.
More toys from the toybox.
And this whole thing could have been prevented if Robert knew how to spell it right! ![]()
Karov,
Glad that you suggest that at least one form of Vacuum Balloon is worth trying.
As for the four planets to swell, I was thinking more of the internal heat, and an insulating weather machine. I see that you dismiss it fairly strongly, that's OK, but I was also thinking about a very advanced civilization using such methods to mine such worlds. I just wanted to get a vague notion of the dimensions of the problem.
Now I think if it were to even be possible, it would have to be your soap bubble vacuum balloons, perhaps constructed by nano-technology (Haven't seen a lot about that for a while). I believe a vacuum balloon would have to be rigid. But perhaps an electron or proton filled balloon could be flexible (I am not too serious about that one, so don't pull your tail feathers out over it). Another alternative would be possibly a gas filled balloon which existed much farther down in the atmospheric column. But I don't know if there is a location on any planets where the reward/problem situation would be favorable to the effort.
Then there is the problem of what happens to the Moons, if you did it. I suppose they could be mined in that way.
I do think perhaps a vacuum balloon would be easier to implement in the atmosphere of Titan than that of Venus, for a number of reasons.
RobertDyke,
That's a good possibility I sense, since each balloon will degrade anyway, due to U.V. and Acid. There would be a workspan for the devices anyway. Perhaps the materials could be recaptured over time to a degree, and recycled.
As for Vacuum Balloons, I understand that that is beyond our means at this time, so it can support dreams of speculation, but not a reality so far. I have also read of schemes involving Plasma, but that is also out of reach at this time. I have speculated on a balloon containing protons, or electrons, using electrostatic repulsive force to maintain the volume of the balloon, but all of these ideas I think bump up against reality in an unfortunate way. I still would like to hear what Karov might have to say about the two gas giants, and two ice giants. I also have to say that the gain of lift you might achieve with any of these schemes in a Hydrogen dominated atmosphere would be meger.
So that leaves planets or moons which could retain an atmosphere of heavier gasses as more realistic candidates.
Mercury? No, even if you generated an atmosphere, some of it would have to be above the hall weather machine, so would be subject to intense solar flux, and the solar wind, so no.
Venus? A very best candidate I presume.
Earth? Karov does not want to mess with it.
Mars? Thin atmosphere, and the potential for condensations on the balloons exteriors, causing them to impact or stick to the ground.
Titan? Maybe, but it is far away, and the solar input is weak.
Pluto? Very thin atmosphere at best, very far away, and full of very light gasses, which I suppose could be expanded to a much thicker atmosphere, but it would be quite an alien world even then. And of course solar input is very weak.
So, Venus is the beauty queen of the notion, I guess.
So, for Venus, Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Methane, and some rare gasses are a possibility.
Hydrogen will try to leak, but maybe your solution of Hydrogen could be considered if that material you suggest is capable of long term durability in the environment. If leakage is a problem, then perhaps it could be possible to have active devices which pump Hydrogen out of the atmosphere, but then you are adding complications. I would suggest a graphine pump, where electrical methods could pump Hydrogen into the balloon as needed. However then additional failure modes and expenses have been introduced.
Nitrogen is readily available, and might be sufficient to hold the altitudes desired, and would be easier to retain in the balloon.
Methane, and perhaps some other hydrocarbons might serve, but they would be prone to chemical alterations, if exposed to U.V. or perhaps the walls of the balloon in some cases.
Helium and other rare gasses are hard to get.
So, in my opinion Hydrogen, Nitrogen, and Methane, would be the choices to consider.
And with that the criteria would be can it get the job done sufficiently? What is the durability of the balloons constructed? Cost of each device?
And, so what is most useful for the effort expended?
But, I think that Venus is a very exciting place to start the notion with.
Using Hydrogen, is better lifting, but I fear permeability of the bubble walls. But maybe that can be solved with some uber material some time.
If so, then I have another question for Karov.
We have two gas giant planets, and two ice giant planets. I believe that their was a suspicion long ago, that the synchronous orbit of either Uranus or Neptune was in it's atmosphere.
Now the question: If you could accomplish vacuum bubbles as the multiple elements of a Hall weather machine, without Hydrogen infiltrating the interior of the bubbles at any harmful rate, could you then insulate any of those four planets sufficient to cause their atmospheres to swell large enough where their synchronous orbits would be inside their atmospheres? Additionally, could you also arrange favorable temperatures at that synchronous orbit (If an atmospheric synchronous orbit was possible)? Even could the luminosity of the lower layers of the planet "Shine" to the synchronous orbit, without over heating the synchronous orbit (Maybe another hall weather machine below which passes visible light, but insulates against the heat????
Maybe this if fun for you, I hope.
Oh, another thing, as Columbo might have said:
There is experimentation going on with using Super Critical CO2 in fracking instead of a water solution. Apparently the water solution builds up electrical charges in the fracking, and this impedes the extraction of the oil. Using Super Critical CO2, they thing they can get much more oil out of the wells. And they speculate that the CO2 can be disposed of that way. It is believed that CO2 can be stored for at least 100 years this way, which would allow us to have our cake and eat it too perhaps.
However the jury is out on the economics of this.
I am not a Russia phobic person however, I do believe we want to leave them part of the market. Probably they will keep much of the markets anyway, as they have adopted fracking to increase their oil output 15% on their normal oil wells already.
Robert Dyke,
I think that in later videos, Peter Zeihan has a more negative notion of the future of the tar sands, and so I presume he does not think that Canada will deal with an Alberta problem.
GW Johnson,
I was very confused on the issue at first, but with my obsessive curiosity, I found out that their is;
1) Shale Oil: Tight oil that did not migrate, and therefore is not contaminated by Sulfur, or toxic metals.
Estimate of supply is 30 years at least for oil, 70 for Natural gas. It is the highest quality oil.
2) Oil Shale: Hydrocarbon which did not process even as much as Shale Oil.
An Estimated 6 Trillion barrels of oil exists, but most of it will be hard to access. An Estonian firm is starting up a pilot project in Utah at this time, on private land. The Estonians have been working with it for about 100 years I think.
Two different things.
3) Another topic of interest is Oil E.O.R. (EOR) Various schemes exist, where old fields still likely have as much oil to extract as was originally taken from them. Typically utilizing CO2 injection, or from the Russians, a method to use sound waves to reopen the pores in the rock.
While I appreciate the environmentalist movements efforts to keep the industry honest, I stop that support when their behaviors approach the level of psychotic fetish, or when they are being used as a fifth column.
Of course it could occur that I was deceived, but I think that most of the negative press on Shale Oil is Fifth column actions.
The parties who could be involved would be;
Coal industry
Persian Gulf countries, & other such parties. In other words, the competition.
Big Oil importers in this country.
As for the use of fresh water, apparently, that has mostly stopped, since, they have found a layer of brine water they can tap from their drilling. As for the fracking chemicals, they are now relatively biologically non-toxic. You apparently could actually drink the stuff, but of course probably not a good idea to do more than once.
As for contamination of the water table, I understand that in the worst case, their is 1/2 mile of rock between the fracking fluids, and the bottom of the water table. This supposedly makes it very unlikely to contaminate the ground water supply.
As for the news you might read about water tables being contaminated, this is very likely where their might have been a spill of fluid on the surface, through negligence, or I suppose pipelines do break, but so do oil pipelines sometimes.
Two things I am not sure of are the earthquakes, and possibly the contamination of well water with Methane out east. I am just not sure about that.
However about the quakes, when I was in school, I lived near iron mines, and every once in a while they would get their blasting wrong, and the school would shake.
So, I guess it depends on how severe those disturbances are as to if it is worth it. Those iron mines gave us pay, and subsidized our taxes, and schools. I guess you could argue that agriculture is a severe disturbance of the environment, as a reference for what trade-offs are worth it. I don't know how severe those quakes are. If they are bad (Damage to property, injuries), then indeed perhaps that particular fracking should not occur.
It seems that for Shale Oil the cost of production is going down every year, maybe I am correct to say it may be approaching $35.00/barrel now. Some think the production costs will go down to $15.00/$20.00 which is directly competitive with the highest quality Persian Gulf oil I believe. (Maybe).
As for flared gas, I believe that Peter Zeihan says they are only allowed to do it for one year, otherwise the are financially penalized heavily.
By waste gas, I believe he is primarily referring to them selling the gas at a loss, so that they can get the oil, which is were their profits are.
In addition, the USA has been gearing up to sell liquid Natural Gas, but the Russians are working hard to keep them out of the European markets.
The USA is now selling very large amounts of Natural Gas to Mexico, as he said, but I think also now to Eastern Canada.
I don't know exactly why Keystone was so feverishly blocked, but if it were me running it, I would have wanted to import the stuff, on the condition that a technology could be invented where Hydrogen from our Natural Gas could be used to turn the Tar Sands oil into light crude ideally using thermal solar energy in my opinion.
The Carbon Dioxide extracted from that process could then be used to conduct EOR on the old oil fields, to extract high quality oil from them.
The intention then would be to generate a very light liquid oil which could be sold to East Asia and Europe, which would accomplish two thing favorable to us, paying down our national debts, and being of use to our allies (And so keeping them allies).
This could have very large cost savings on the process of natural security/military spending, also helping to pay down our national debts.
Now as for the environment, it is not good that the Europeans and perhaps Asians are tilting towards higher Carbon fuels, if you believe in global warming, when in fact we might supply them with lower Carbon fuels instead, and pay down our national debts.
I wish!
Well, I like it.
I do think that Venus would be a fine laboratory to test it on because of proximity and because the flotation gas could at least initially be Nitrogen.