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I'm way behind you all in grasping the political models, but I like reading your ideas.
I'm not worried about someone invading Andorra, I'm worried about one settlement on Mars invading some other settlement. As long as you have more than one state or province or principality or what-have-you on Mars, that will happen. One purpose of the national government of Mars is to prevent that.
In the early days this should not be an issue at all, with loads of space for the tiny new settlements and most or all newcomers with a like-minded attitude of cooperation. Later when it could be a problem they will have to find a solution for themselves.
I read that Deep Space Industries is partnering with Luxembourg on asteroid mining. Lux. has ratified the OST, so maybe this doesn't fit our debate here.
Luxembourg gets into asteroid mining early
Anyhow, unless there is some movement on 1) revising the OST or 2) convincing a small state to claim some land on Mars without upsetting other nations, I suspect that not much will happen to give settlements a legal basis until humans actually set foot on Mars or arrive there with the intention of settling. Then the world will sit up and take notice, and who knows where it will lead. But it will pay ot be ready.
Who knows. If Andorra or other small state agreed and worked with Mars Society et. al. in the next couple of years, before any manned landings, that might catalyze other parties to get moving on setting up a real framework for Mars to be settled.
I'm going to email Jacob Haqq-Misr to see what he thinks is the best & most realistic way forward. In the session on YouTube from last year (cited way, way above in this thread) one of the panel said it wouldn't be good to move too quickly or noisily so as not to alarm 'certain powers' (paraphrased), which I think meant the UN etc who could try to ban all 'exploitation' of Mars. I don't know if that's relevant or realistic.
Here are some linked short stories on the human hazards of space exploration. Follow Don, Asya, Marco and Annika - and many others -
as they train to live on Mars, journey through the vacuum, and land on their new home planet.
So that you know what style to expect: I aim to write good stories with as much solid science and engineering in them as I can. But they are not text-book documentaries. Mainly I want to explore how people will live and experience such a radical new departure, what scientific advances might be like there, and what difference the technology will make.
More are in the works and you will find them linked off the first page below. Happy reading!
By the way, all are free to read. I'm just writing 'cos I enjoy it.
I think that it would be fine if your church sponsored the formation of a Mars Society Chapter and obtained a settlement permit. However, if a settlement tries to force people into believing in particular supernatural beings and engaging in particular religious practices then that would be wrong.
Forcing people into a belief or practice? I think some tried that way back, but I don't think people can be forced into real belief. I'm truly sorry if you've encountered such attempts. The best way, if you have something you are convinced is good and right, and that other people could benefit from, is to try to persuade people, and to live a life that commends your belief. Perhaps like those Hutterites.
That's relevant for settling Mars, I hope. Nobody can improve other peoples' behaviour much by passing laws and having police & judiciary - that's just to restrain criminality. Best way is to show that 'our way' works, and to explain why.
Scott, wouldn't the larger settlements such as cities or towns be better equipped to grow food? It's going to be a fairly technology-heavy process, isn't it, maintaining a good growing environment with enough fertilizer (eg from processed human feces and urine, and best place to find those are where there are lots of people) and even building a large enough structure to make a big enough farm? It will need a lot of work to make a city-worth of food. Perhaps beyond the early days of settlement there will be ready-made agricultural equipment, more know-how, more construction gear, so smaller homesteaders can grow some surplus.
But I'm not a specialist, so I could be wrong. I need to go away and do some more reading on that.
Interesting. I don't know about such things. My feeling is that if it comes to claiming land on Mars it will end in strife and hostility.
I'd prefer that Earth nations agree that Mars should be independent from the start. Establish a Mars secretariat or similar and register land claims there.
Updated to show Mars Society Chapters... Feel free to draw your own versions. Mine needs colour and some artistic effort
John: I proposed that chapters of the Mars Society would be eligible to obtain Mars Settlement Permits from the Mars Secretariat.
...along with any other groups who want to apply? Some guidelines on how to become eligible are required.
I am trying to encourage would-be Martians to form face-to-face “moral communities”; i.e., groups of Mars Society members who get together occasionally or regularly to discuss “right” and “wrong” and who thereby develop a consensus about which direction constitutes “a way forward”.
Sounds like a practical step forward. That will need a deal of agreement and publicity among Mars Society people.
Your 'moral communities' sounds like the church I go to! I don't expect you wanted to hear that and I don't think our church is going to Mars! But it is good to form communities where you know all the other members, can build trust, can agree on some common goals.
I therefore propose that “Nomads” be changed to “Mars Society Chapters” and that “Mars Consortium” be changed to “Mars Society Chapters Consortium”. The Consortium could be a business entity that raises settlement construction moneys on behalf of Chapters that have obtained Mars Settlement Permits.
The “Mars Society Chapters” would be on Earth, right? They are like small colonies in formation?
My concept of 'Nomads' on my sketch comes from the Red Mars novels, the small wandering communities with no fixed abode. Just to say that diversity is a big part of life wherever you go; not all settlers will fit into one or ten molds.
But sure, “Mars Society Chapters” can be on the map. It's just that I think Mars is even bigger than the Mars Society - there will surely be non-members wanting to settle there too. So the Consortium may have a strong MSoc influence, but I myself wouldn't change the name to exclude non-members.
Let’s put a solid business foundation under the Mars migration movement. First: Persuade a sovereign to appoint an officer who has the authority to issue settlement permits. Second: Use those permits to raise settlement funding in capital markets (e.g., the New York Stock Exchange). Third: Build a prototype settlement somewhere on Earth so that proto-Martian settlers will be prepared to succeed once they arrive on Mars.
Is you 'first' the idea you mentioned about Andorra or Malta? I am not sure that would work (who are they to issue permits?), but if there's enough agreement in Mars Society, go for it.
Raising investment funding: that would have to demonstrate a strong business case first, right? How easy would that be before anyone's tried it? Or is this what we'd do in later stages when settlements are making money?
Building prototype settlement: great. Expand on the ideas in MRDS and FMars or whatever they're called in the Canadian Arctic & Utah desert. I think once (say) SpaceX's ITS system is closer to operational readiness people may start doing exactly that if they're serious.
You'll need to gather a lot of interested friends, start a movement, if you're going to get anywhere. Good luck!
Here's a quick sketch of one possible Mars political structure for the early days. Use as a starting point? Fill in details?
No they would just take it without consulting us.
Nobody's disputing that the US is the leader in space exploration and could do what it wanted. But I don't think even your own government would agree with snatching Mars, claiming sovereignty over it, without consulting rest-of-world.
The US stands to gain hugely anyway from its investments in space, just by going and building. You're welcome to plan your USA-Mars concepts but don't expect the rest of us to join in. Global cooperation looks like a saner option.
I think I get it - I need to upload my image to a URL, then use [img](URL)[/img]
How do I add an image to a post?
Are you sure that a higher education isn't simply being used as a selection criterion and for no other purpose? Do you want to have a bunch of professors, engineers, and mathematicians shoveling dirt? I think a lot of people would be underemployed if we send the smartest and brightest to Mars, so they can then shovel dirt and do needed menial labor and routine maintenance of all the equipment keeping them alive. You know sending people to Mars is expensive, so would you send Elon Musk, as he is a smart guy? Should be he on Earth building new rockets and running his company or on Mars shoveling dirt? Imagine sending a talented engineer and inventor to Mars and him getting all frustrated because he can't fabricate the stuff he wants to build his latest invention. Imagine an astrophysicist that wants to publish a paper for an astronomical journal, but instead he has to do routine maintenance around the base because he is the only one around who can do it. Do you see the problem here?
From the beginning land owners would inherently be shareholders in the company, and as the planet becomes bigger and more self-sufficient officers start becoming elected. I can get into more detail on such an idea if people want.
I'm uneasy with the idea of a corporation running Mars, even in the beginning stages. These entities don't relinquish power easily, and they tend to be less accountable than a democracy. If it operates in order to make a profit for shareholders, where do all our other higher visions come in - scientific discovery, freedom, expanding the human horizons?
However, since Big Money is the most able to get a settlement started, there may not be much choice. In which case, everything should be done to create a culture of transparency and working for the common good, a common goal.
The UN does such a terrible job of keeping the peace, I'm not sure we want to replicate that on Mars. I don't want slavery on one part of Mars, and have women as second class citizens on another, and a dictator ruling a swath of Mars on a third part. I think one country or another should have Mars, and have an open immigration system for starters. The path of least resistance would seem to be rewarding Russia with Venus, the United States gets Mars, and Europe gets Titan, everyone else gets the asteroid belt. China seems to be interested in the Moon. One problem is we set up Nations on Mars, there are no oceans, meaning no International Waters!
You are joking, aren't you?
Look, we all know the USA is the current leader in space, and we were all inspired by Apollo and Voyager and Curiosity and a long list of others. But Mars belongs to humanity, if to anyone at all. Mars should be free and independent from the start, to prevent any of this squabbling. If Mars starts off American, how long will it be before they fight a War Of Independence?
This is a great paper on the subject - not that I agree 100% with all his ideas - https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1404/1404.2315.pdf
(which really, I suppose, could be likened to fish caught in international waters...?).
In a Mars Society presentation last year (Oct 14, 2016, Legal Basis for Space Settlement & Sovereignty) this was mentioned by Dr. Henry Hertzfeld who seems to have a legal background. He said that currently, fish become the property of the fishermen when they are landed in the boat, and not before. Analogous to not claiming sovereignty on Mars but being able to extract resources and use them, sell them. He used it as a possible analogy to asteroid mining.
... or has this been tried already?
Either we compile one document by voting on each paragraph, or make several according to beliefs and views.
JohnX wrote:I have another question entirely with all this great debate which I'm enjoying - what's actually the point of debating here, on this forum? How will these conversations contribute to anything meaningful? I'm still new in this forum so I don't know if anyone's involved who might be making 'real-world' decisions or influencing those who do, or many people who fully intend to settle on Mars.
Several NASA employees are members of the Mars Society. And NASA administration noticed the Mars Society is effective at lobbying Congress to support their budget. So we are noticed. And a couple times when I criticized NASA too harshly, a NASA employee did point it out to me. I deleted a couple posts that I was told the NASA administrator himself took exception to. And Lockheed-Martin has stolen some of my technical ideas, but those are mostly when I bid on NASA contracts. So we are getting serious attention.
That's great.
Perhaps a useful way to influence NASA is to advocate for a greater partnership with private space. Most opinions I've seen suggest that SpaceX will get there first.
Perhaps this is better discussed in one of the Underhill threads. Better yet, maybe we can come up with a draft outline for a Martian government in this very thread, pulling together the most workable ideas - looks like we won't agree on everything easily. Then work out what to do with that draft.
One possibility is that if/when the SpaceX ITS gets operational, a contingent of Mars Society volunteer colonists will raise the money to buy up a whole BFR and put all these great ideas into practice. Anyone up for that?
(I'm 50 already - can't see myself doing that when I'm 70+ )
No balance of power between the regions and the center, no check on central government tyranny!
Mars is about starting again. Take the best of Earth with you, leave the worst behind. So it looks like there will always be disagreement about what's the best and what's the worst. But - best to leave as much of the nation-building as possible to the Martians.
I would think when the population of Mars is less than a million, or there are less than a few hundred settlements, that the Mars Secretariat could still be a small, weak body and each individual will have opportunity to contribute to decision making. By that time they will be able to decide what to do - another layer of government, or something else, like direct democracy or whatever.
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I have another question entirely with all this great debate which I'm enjoying - what's actually the point of debating here, on this forum? How will these conversations contribute to anything meaningful? I'm still new in this forum so I don't know if anyone's involved who might be making 'real-world' decisions or influencing those who do, or many people who fully intend to settle on Mars.
The case for a Mars World Government is I think unassailable. There has to be a single entity to take on the task of terraformation which must be reserved to it (given that otherwise differential terraformation efforts could conflict).
Agreed. A utopia in which everyone can do what they like just won't work. The question is how to give Mars the greatest chance at free, open, limited government that won't be too vulnerable to corruption.
However, I think a Mars World Government should have a fairly limited brief:
1. Terraformation.
2. Earth-Mars transit and migration control.
3. Currency and free trade (unlike on Earth, it probably makes sense to have a single planet-wide free trade area from the get-go).
4. Earth-Mars relations.
5. Defence and major civil emergency.
6. Unified standards for calendar, weights and measures.
7. Settlement policy.
No doubt there will be more that needs to be dealt with on a planetary scale but those are for me the main ones.
Ideally one would have a formal system for how settlements of say 100 people or might have limited self-government. Those over say 1000 could then become fully self-governing or could elect to join other settlements in self-governing entities.
7. Settlement Policy? What's that? Governing who gets to settle where? Good point. So a new embryonic colony is planned on Earth, and early on it applies for a plot of land with the Mars gov, who process the application and say 'yes you can land there and this is your colony area' with coordinates, or 'no, sorry, that's too close to Pavonis Mons' or something, or even 'your equipment and safety standards don't reach our minimum standards - you have to redesign and reapply'.
In all these areas the various colonies are going to want to be represented. That's quite a process of system-building.
A fair amount of infrastructure goes along with all that #1-7. eg comms sats, office space, storage of emergency supplies, emergency response vehicles & kit, training for volunteers... lots of work to keep some people employed. So who pays? Some sort of ... dare I say it ... taxation?
NiFe would be a mars building material and not one that we would be exporting as it would not have the value after the cost of shipping it back.
Quite right. Someone was talking about finding materials for building space habs though, and some kind of steel would come in handy. And it proves my point that materials or products would have to have a very high value to make them exportable.
Everyone loves SpaceX! - except for competitors such as ULA.
I've never read Robinson's novels, although they sound interesting. What is the dichotomy?
The first book tracks (among other things) a running debate, then a kind of civil war, between various people and factions who want Mars to stay as it is, un-terraformed, pristine, mainly so they can do science, find life, etc - ecological-type concerns - and the others who to varying degrees are keen to change Mars to suit humankind. Loosely labelled 'Reds' and 'Greens', except the Greens are not the ecological ones on Mars!
I'd recommend reading all 3 asap! Written in the '90s I think but still ahead of their times in many ways.
I think one possible use is as building materials for free space colonies. You know that Mars has more material than the entire asteroid belt, and it has more of the types of material for building space colonies, later on we can mine Jupiter's Moons, that also has more materials than the Asteroid Belt. Everyone talks about the asteroid build, but the amount of material orbiting Jupiter and Saturn dwarfs the amount of material in the asteroid belt, but Mars is closer and would be a good place to start.
There may well be more NiFe and other ores on Mars, I believe that, but food for thought -
- how easy to extract them if most of them are underground?
- once they have been refined, they need boosting to orbit and to wherever a space colony is to be built. Given that Mars's escape velocity is lower than Earth's, it's also much higher than zero. Which is more economical: that, or mining asteroids (some of which wil have orbits close to Mars and closer to Earth) with effectively zero escape velocity?
- At least on Mars it would be easier to support a mining base. There are life support materials, some gravity and a little atmosphere.
Is anyone planning to build these space colonies yet in a practical way? I mean on the scale of readiness where asteroid mining & SpaceX's ITS are at? just interested. Obviously it would be a huge undertaking.
A deal of discussion assumes that Mars could be mined for resources which could be sold on Earth at vast profit. But that's not a foregone conclusion. I would like to try some arithmetic to see if the expense would be worthwhile using current technology.
Reason: dV. The energy required to arrive on Mars is one thing; quite another is to mine a resource in a hostile environment and then lift it out of Mars's gravity well, propel it to Earth, decelerate it safely, and lower it onto Earth's surface intact.
Alternative: go asteroid mining. A great deal less dV required.
If this is true, it would alter the balance. Independent Mars colonies would not have to contend with multinational corporations landing next door to strip-mine the neighbourhood, unless the corporations had some longer-term plans on Mars, some other way to make huge profits.
On the other hand, Louis at http://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=7599 compiled a long list of possible Mars exports, including gold & diamonds. If such things were discovered in large quantities that would change things again.
Thoughts?
To get millions of people living in outerspace in the next 200 years would require a breakthrough in energy and propulsion - probably Fusion.
Having Fusion Power and propulsion would enable us obtain minerals from all over the solar system to build space craft and colonies pretty much anywhere.
Anti-Matter might become doable if we discover a way to create and store loads of it efficiently. CERN LHC will tell us more about that soon.
Want to revisit the dream of the Solar Federal Republic now that EM Drives are beginning to look like they might actually work? (as much as that offends all our scientific sensibilities) Sure, they might not be much use for heavy lifting out of Earth's gravity well, but from there on an EM fleet could push solar system colonisation.
Wow, you're the ideas factory.
What about the clash between scientific research on the surface and building an economy? For example, this paper -
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1511/1511.05615.pdf
- proposes to make important sites on Mars off-limits to development in order to preserve them. This would almost certainly include a lot of the tourist must-sees. So perhaps the visitor centre would be built at some distance from the edge of Marineris and they drive in.
It's already sounding like the Red Mars / Green Mars dichotomy in KS Robinson's novels, don't you think? How can there be an agreed balance?
“…should we try bold new experiments in civilization to find better ideas?”
Jacob Haqq-Misra, “The Transformative Value of Liberating Mars”. New Space, May 2016, 4(2): 64-67. https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1404/1404.2315.pdfI am in favor of building “experimental communities” but I think that such experiments should be conducted on Earth, with successful communities being transplanted to Mars, together with all of the equipment and supplies that the new Martians will need to succeed.
Is this possible in the way Jacob H-M is proposing? To be independent economically and politically surely includes not building your colony on some other nation's land but being sovereign. Only way to do that on Earth might be ... maybe ... an ocean-going city. Tricky. True, you could set up a 'colony' on Earth based on experimental principles or ideologies and then transplant it. I wonder how workable or desirable that would be.