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#51 Re: Life support systems » Microwave ovens for clothes washing » 2007-01-25 12:22:11

Rxke, that surprises me.

Microwave ovens work by using essentially the same principle as a radio receiver: radiofrequency radiation creates electric current in conductors.  It's the current that heats the food.  That's why forks and metal trim will spark, CD's develop St. Elmo's Fire, and paper containers won't burn in the microwave.  It's why wet foods heat faster in the microwave, and why <20mL distilled water doesn't superheat and blow up as fast as tapwater would.

Dry plastic and dry cellulose are just no fun in a microwave.

Dry sponges are not good conductors.  I would have expected that a completely dry sponge would do nothing but sit there. 

This tale of one catching fire after only 2 minutes under otherwise normal microwave oven conditions is not believable.  10 minutes would be remarkable. 

I wonder if there was more to it?

#52 Re: Life support systems » Microwave ovens for clothes washing » 2007-01-24 08:18:40

Because they can't actually get to steam temperatures using tapwater, actual sterilization would require the use of oils, but it turns out that microwaves are still very good at disinfecting common household items.

Experiment Demonstrates Microwave Ovens Will "Sterilize" Kitchen Sponges

It's also been tried with limited success for utensils and glassware, including syringes.

The near boiling temperatures microwaves can induce in kitchen sponges will inhibit bacterial growth and destroy viruses.  This should also work for other fabrics as well, such as the newly washed clothing of a Mars expedition's crew.  The amount of water required is not large, and this could easily become a means of extending the necessary supply of disinfectants that the crew will need to bring with them, using electrical power instead of cleansers for some applications.

I'm going to run home and try this, to see if I can stretch the lifetime of my sponges this way.

#53 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Earth to LEO - discuss » 2007-01-23 08:22:09

I read that rocket pumps make up somehting like half the cost of a rocket engine. The alt space groups seem to favor self presurizing fuels like propane and nitrus oxide, but I have a had time beliving that that's going to work for a low cost orbital rocket. Has anyone considered a sort of pulse jet pump? My thought is that if one had quite a few high pressure cylinders and then filled them with the fuel and a little bit of oxidizer and ignited it, it would get up to the chamber pressure and could be emptied with a one way valve. Sound fesible? Sort of like a piston pump without the piston.

Hmm.

I don't discount self-pressurizing propellants out of hand.  However, I think something similar to what you are proposing could be employed to pressurize cryogenic fuels.  The trick would lie in not blowing the whole works by introducing hot, uncombusted reactants into the propellant tanks along with the pressurizer exhaust.  In the worst case scenario, the pressurizer would provide a flow path directly between the fuel and oxidizer tanks.

#54 Re: Not So Free Chat » Books You've Just Read? » 2007-01-22 16:24:20

I have an interesting idea. Suppose we sent 3 arkships to Alpha Centauri, one is full of Communists that adhere to central planning, one is full of religious fanatics that adhere to their "Great Wise One" Spiritual leader and do whatever he say, and the third is full of Capitalists/Entrepenuers, so which colony ship is most likely to arrive their successfully?

I don't know, but it has the makings of a great joke!

#55 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Mars Homesteads colony plan to recycle waste » 2007-01-17 16:34:31

A living plant doesn't require as much maintenance as a mechanical plant for generating oxygen does. Somebody has to be on hand to repair the airplant whenever it breaks down and the necessary spare parts must be available to keep it in operation for the entire duration of the Mission, this has happened on the ISS and on the Mir. Spare parts and repair crews can't be flown to the Mars base as often as they can be to the ISS. Living Plants, on the other hand, continue to grow and produce oxygen so long as the right environment is provided for them.

You'd better hope not. 

A big part of many proposed mars expeditions (Mars Direct, etc.) is an autonomous oxygen production plant for in situ production of life support supplies and propellant.  If what you've just claimed is true, you may kiss autonomous ISRU goodbye. 

Living plants are desirable because of their ability to produce food.  That is the only thing they do that can't be imitated by mechanical systems.

#56 Re: Human missions » What If we HAD to get to Mars on Short Notice » 2007-01-17 14:22:58

A question I was going to ask.

If you had the choices

Option 1-quick and dirty mission to Mars.   Two missions to Mars minimum.
                 50% chance of a continuing series of missions indefinitely.


Option 2-Go big Mars program-80% chance the program will be canceled before
                 the first mission goes, but if its sustained, a far faster buildup of men
                 and material on the Martian surface with more advanced technology
                 used.

Which option would you choose.

My answer: Yes.   8)

Unfortunately, that's just a personal preferrence.  We need to face the reality that the resources to do both may not be available.  Therefore, we need to go with Option 2, because it would offer the most return for the flight time.  This creates another requirement:

We need to make option 2 fit into the budget for option 1.

#57 Re: Life support systems » Mars first crew greenhouse » 2007-01-17 09:08:23

As for strength, the bursting strength for 1 mil film is 19.4psi; that pressure will cause it to burst.

PCTFE would definitely have acceptable properties for the windows of a pressurized greenhouse.  Back when it was sold under the brand name Kel-F, was also extensively used in satellites.  According to the 1965 edition of the Lockheed Space Materials Handbook (sorry, no link), PCTFE suffers greater percent loss of tensile strength than Teflon under UV radiation (15% vs. 6% under arbitrarily high – read “more than earth orbit” – UV illumination) and also more outgasing in vacuum conditions.  It’s still pretty good, though – an excellent choice for windows in a pressurized greenhouse.  You should also consider that its tensile strength increases remarkably as the temperature decreases, more than doubling at a lowest design temperature of -140 C.

Regarding strength, Robert, you keep expressing the strength of materials in terms of psi internal pressure.  I don’t think that’s sufficiently informative.  The burst pressure of a greenhouse window is going to depend on its size.  I can get a window of Saran Wrap to withstand 19.4 psi if I just make it small enough.  I think you should consider expressing strengths in terms of yield strength, not internal pressure, for a better comparison with other materials.

Here's a web page I wrote: Greenhouse

That’s pretty good!  I’ve already put it in my favorites.

I also tried my hand at greenhouse design with a set of articles for the New Mars Wiki.  John Creighton did a great one, too.  Reading back over them, I’ve found a few mistakes that I intend to go back in and edit out when I get time.  (The lighting level is underestimated, the suggested pressure is too high, etc.)  (I’d love help with it, BTW.)  But the section on greenhouse structure does address size considerations. 

Attaining the necessary window size for a solar illuminated greenhouse is going to be a problem for almost any transparent material, especially anything with layers thin enough to be inflatable.  I don’t think layered PCTFE alone will prove to be a sufficient building material.  We’re going to need to reinforce it with something.

#58 Re: Life support systems » Mars first crew greenhouse » 2007-01-16 11:27:28

big_smile  You are a card, Dick!

To clarify: Do we really know this reduced pressure agriculture works?

#59 Re: Life support systems » Mars first crew greenhouse » 2007-01-16 08:25:15

When the final design of the Mars greenhouse is finished, it's likely to be one of the most cleverly engineered units in technological history.

I think that article hit it, SpaceNut.

I am curious: a reasonable amount of data has started to accumulated from these depressurized growth experiments, enough to begin making educated estimates, but what I've seen to focuses mostly on growth rates and other metabolic indicators.  Has anyone ever actually sown, raised, and harvested a crop from one of these things, then eaten it?  Are there any measures of actual productivity under these conditions?

#60 Re: Life support systems » Mars first crew greenhouse » 2007-01-15 20:32:14

Multiple layers with a space between them. Pump the space full of a little Argon from Earth for insulation. UV and IR coatings for Mylar are available now.

I couldn't recommend that for a single-walled greenhouse of any size.  Good design practice requires that if you have multiple pressure walls (which is what you're suggesting, even if they're only holding in a little argon), one of them should be strong enough to withstand the operating pressure all by itself. 

I don't think we'll get that from a single sheet of Mylar.

You could make an exception for multiple layers combining their strength, but not if you're trying to make each one hold its own pocket of air.  For example, The TransHab prototype used multiple layers in contact with each other, which worked well.  But for all the hype about how TransHab was "triple hulled", it had just one pressure wall as far as the ASME's pressure vessel construction code was concerned.

#61 Re: Life support systems » Mars first crew greenhouse » 2007-01-15 19:49:02

I've mentioned a few times that I think we should have a dedicated crewman to operate the greenhouse, but that's really a bare minimum. The eventual establishment of a farm on Mars is so important to permanent settlement that I think we should go beyond that.

I think we should have a dedicated expedition to start the greenhouse.

#62 Re: Life support systems » Mars first crew greenhouse » 2007-01-15 19:44:55

I'd like an en route greenhouse produce growing discussion, as well thought out as the above, please. Desireable both for nutrition as well as occupational therapy during the trips out and back.

One of the main difficulties with a Martian greenhouse large enough to support the crew isn't a mechanical problem at all, but rather the long lead times required to get it running on the necessary scale.  So, yes, starting a garden en route is desirable and probably quite necessary. 

For example, some plants have exceptionally long periods from seed to harvest or between propogations.  Onions and other perrenial spices need growth periods as long as a year.  Dwarf trees and bushes may not bear fruit until their second year.  And so on.

Then there are the crops that will not store for six to nine months waiting for the crew to find time to arrive and build a greenhouse.  Certain seeds will not keep this long, nor will potatoes and other crops that optimally cultivated from tubers or runners for better robustness.  True, potatoes, strawberries and the like can also be grown from seed, but it's far less reliable.  And refrigeration doesn't really help - not enough for nine months storage.  (Grocery store potatoes will keep that long under refrigeration because they have been treated with chemicals to inhibit growth - not what you want if you intend to raise a crop of them.)  If we want potatoes - a desirable cold-climate crop - on Mars, we're going to have to start growing them on the ship.

#63 Re: Life support systems » Mars first crew greenhouse » 2007-01-15 12:35:01

The powerpoint is very interesting, but how much power does this system take? It looks like two opaque greenhouses have 440 square meters. If the plants there are supplied by grow lights, I suspect that means a power demand of about 400 kilowatts (maybe half that if one greehouses is illumined when the other one is in a nighttime condition). That's a lot of power for recycling! And in duststorm season, the transparent greenhouse would have a pretty low productivity, so you'd have to light it a well or cut food and water production in half.

An old reference I found for growing plants under lights recommends about 300W/m^2 lamp power, or only 190 kW for a 440 square meter greenhouse whose power system runs at 70% efficiency.  Since the recommended fluorescent + incandescent combination is only 40-50% efficient, that 190kW would include at least double the amount of heat required, necessitating some sort of cooling system to shed the rest.  So, make it an even 200 kW, easy, to run both greenhouses.  That can be reduced to a little under 150 kW by keeping one half dark, but the dark half will still need heat even when there are no lights. 

The minimum illumination to get a crop from flowering plants is about 130 W/m^2.  (Some make do with less, some need more.)  Martian sunlight can provide this, but not during the thickest dust storms, and not at latitudes above 70 degrees north or south.  There’s also the pressure wall to consider, which is going to have to block a lot of light in order to provide a thick enough wall.  Reducing pressure allows a thinner wall and/or bigger windows, but research indicates that you can only take the pressure so low before the corresponding decrease in absolute humidity and boiling point catches up to your crop.  I believe transmission of only up to 85% of incident light is attainable through the greenhouse windows.  (A greenhouse constructed of 100% transparent material is unattainable, IMHO.)  That would increase the mass of the greenhouse (due to the accompanying thicker walls) and further restricts its useful range to about 60 degrees north or south.  Still, windows don’t add as much mass as a 200kW dedicated powerplant, even with extra collector area to provide heat.  That makes solar greenhouses competitive, even with these limitations.   

The drop in light during an exceptionally thick dust storm isn’t 100%, so all that backup lighting would need to do is make that up.  100W/m^2 lamp power should be sufficient to keep up productivity during dust storms at the equator or keep the greenhouse going at higher latitudes – one third what’s necessary for growing under lights exclusively.  Those lamps need not sit idle when not in use, either – artificial lighting is better than window light for many agricultural applications, because you can adjust it.  Or, since dust storms tend to be seasonal, colonists can simply plan to adapt seasonally by laying in enough supplies to ride it out.

As for saving waste until the system is up and running, most of it is water, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen, and they should be pretty cheap to obtain. It'd be cheaper to haul a dozen kilos of "miracle grow" (I suppose they'll spend a hundred million dollars to refine the formula for Mars) and throw away a lot of the waste.

Nitrogen conservation will be more useful than trying to recycle it.  Grey water and black water waste will be well worth recycling, but not just for the water.  The solid and solute content may prove an excellent source of nutrients for plant growth, once properly composted.

Shipping a dozen kilos of hydroponic nutrients might be worthwhile as well.  The actual amount necessary for a given crop is remarkably small.  Augmenting that with compost (you can use compost for hydroponics, too) would stretch that supply out for years.

Setting up a functioning greenhouse of any size larger than a room in the hab is going to require a lot more work than merely inflating a balloon and setting out some seeds in a tray.  Greenhouse design is going to be tricky.   IMHO, even the Mars Homestead project hasn’t given it all proper consideration, and they’d made more design progress than most. 


...while on the first stay we should at least experiment with growing of some foods regardless of the process by which we do it.

It's definitely the sort of thing we should not wait to start doing.  Likewise, we shouldn't throw all our seeds in the pot at once before we get some experience with the local growing conditions, either.  So, starting small and building larger as we go is an excellent idea.  By the end of the first martian year, we should know enough to start a full crop, but I would not count on it before then.

#64 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Mars Homesteads colony plan to recycle waste » 2007-01-15 08:44:02

OK - so use bacteria and/or fungus, fed on animal/human waste (to extract the vitamins) with sugar or starch added to put energy into the loop.

That's a lot of R&D, TwinBeam.  I don't know if it would be worth it, and we shouldn't rely on it.  There is no gaurantee at this point that bacteria and fungi can meet the nutritional needs of the crew.

Plants can do the job of producing vitamins and nutrients for the crew.  It takes more fuel to get it there, and more maintenance once it's there, but agricultural production from plants is so much better understood at this point than bacterial/fungal agriculture that I would hesitate to rely on alternatives.

And of course, you could have a small hydroponics system to provide some greens for the colonists' diet.   You'd certainly want to be experimenting with growing plants for the longer term anyhow.   Just don't make the lives of the colonists depend on it.

True.  It's going to take a lot of labor and time to get a large greenhouse up and running, with a lot of possibility for errors in a strange environment.  I'm guessing at least two to three years until it can be relied on, with at least one failed crop to show for it.  Don't expect sufficient yield for the first crop, failed or not.  Nobody will be living off of the greenhouse output for at least the first six months.

#65 Re: Human missions » What If we HAD to get to Mars on Short Notice » 2007-01-14 13:01:34

I for one think we should send people with the possibility of not coming back.

Amen!  Which, I suppose, is the number one reason that we should refuse to go "on short notice" without some compensation far more impressive than mere prestige.

I take issue with the claim that the only attainable trajectory for premature return is >18 months transit, but in the end that's an issue of design philosophy, not mission philosophy.  The real issue is whether to go with minimal preparation.

#66 Re: Human missions » What If we HAD to get to Mars on Short Notice » 2007-01-13 21:05:48

Ciclops, I think that this could be an important point, so I'm going to parse it out...

Why is "immediate evacuation of all hands" necessary? If an emergency happens shortly after Earth departure there is no immediate evacuation possible for over a year (the time to swingby Mars back to Earth). So that's one year minimum that is part of any Mars mission plan.

The time for a free return trajectory on the six month transit advocated in Mars Direct is two years, and I think its similar for DRM.  That's six months hapless in space (from a propulsion perspective), followed immediately upon landing by an opportunity to hop an ERV and return to Earth in nine months rather than eighteen - if an ERV is available.  If something bad enough to abort the mission but not bad enough to abort the landing occured during that transit (say, losing half the crew, half the food, half the laundry, or whatever), it might be nice to have the option of returning the crew nine months early.

Of course there would have to be sufficient backup power, habitable shelter and supplies available as there would be in Antarctica or any remote location. People at the Mars base are not in the same situation as on ISS where depressurization, extensive fire or total loss of power or attitude control would mean abandoning the vehicle. Millions of people each year fly in aircraft without any form of immediate evacuation. A Mars base is not an aircraft or a spacecraft, it won't crash or explode. Backup emergency facilities will be available while repairs are made, that's one big advantage of a planetary base.

 

A mars base would exist in vacuum, just like the ISS, and be subject to the same problems.  However, the ISS has an escape vehicle, and an airplane can descend.  However, if the problem is with the pressure vessel of the base, but on a timescale allowing evacuation, the best solution isn't to flee back to Earth but to move to a new pressure vessel.  If a backup living quarters can be provided, the majority of mechanical problems become something better handled by repairs, not aborting the mission. 

Crew have somewhere to go: the surface.

Where the ERV's are waiting....

The return vehicle wouldn't have the endurance to reach Earth,  the crew would just slowly die in space.

The Mars Direct plan calls for the ERV to be fully fueled and ready to go before the crew ever reaches the surface.  DRM likewise calls for the return vehicle to be ready and waiting.  Neither plan allows for an ERV still lacking the endurance to reach earth by the time the first crew arrives - although the Mars Direct ERV's life support supplies are too small to handle the additional three months necessary for an immediate return launch. 

The best form of evacuation of the HAB is to a nearby emergency shelter.

The best form, yes.  Now we just need to convince mother nature that disasters this couldn't deal with are not worth her trouble.

The shortfall with the Mars Direct ERV's supplies is telling, IMHO, although it's not as bad as omitting the crew's clothing and other oversights of the Mars Direct mass budget, and does reflect exactly the sort of planning philosophy you are advocating.  It can be done.

But it's hardly the safest design for the task.

#67 Re: Human missions » Thermal Depolymerization / thermal conversion process » 2007-01-13 20:30:32

Its funny how we want to have earth on mars even to the point of creating grand processes of simular scale.

Polymer Synthesis & Manufacturing Systems

What's wrong with that?  wink

#68 Re: Human missions » What If we HAD to get to Mars on Short Notice » 2007-01-13 16:29:51

3. Minimizes and spreads the cost and risk by avoiding the development of an horrendously expensive return capability for 6 crew from the very beginning.

[...]

8. Evacuation mode possible by sending several ERVs.

Yep, that's the risky part of small ERV's.

Once you have a base that's stable enough that you're reasonably sure you won't have to abandon it at any time in the coming year, then you can talk about not having sufficient ERV capability on site to get everybody home at once. 

Of course, two-person ERV's are slightly more desirable mass-wise, and its extremely desirable to use them periodically rather than leave them lying around until the limit of their shelf life.  That's the good part of this scheme.  However, it is absolutely imperative that sufficient transportation for a complete and immediate evacuation of all hands be available for at least the first few years. 

That means several two-person ERV's, all available for use upon arrival. 

The goal should always be - always - to enable the crew to stay as long as possible.  Permanently, IMHO.  But if they can't be ready to blast off as soon as they shake off the dust of their first surface jaunt, the mission archiectecture is not safe.

#69 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Mars Homesteads colony plan to recycle waste » 2007-01-13 08:05:55

Then I have an interesting idea for a flush toliet. You flush the toilet and the human waist empties into a holding tank, then the valve between the toilet and the tank closes and the valve between the tank and the outside opens. The human waist gets sucked out and deposited onto the Martian soil right next to the hab. I suppose the urine either freezes or boils away, the solid waste would turn into a fine powder and all the liquids inside boiled away. Over time a sizable pile of human waste would accumulate right next to the hab, at least it wouldn't smell.

That scheme would not preserve the wastes for potential future recycling - you'd need to vent the holding tank/boiler at the top and skip the "deposited on the Martian soil" step.  But yes, that's the basic idea.  Store (not strew) the effluent nearby, and come back to it later if we decide we care.

I wonder how much room two years worth of food would take compared to the facilities to grow new food? Seems to me that if they were serious about growing food, they'd need to bring along an agricultural specialist or two. Growing food is fairly labor intensive. You'd probably need a full time farmer to take care of the food needs. One person growing food is one less person exploring Mars.

By my estimate, the equipment needed to grow food for a crew of six would take about as much mass as a second hab.  It should be sent seperately, and preferrably wait until well into the first mission.  And its setup and operation will take more than  one person's man-hours of work per day - it should be spread between two or more people.

If you're just scouting, it's best to leave the greenhouse on Earth.

#70 Re: Human missions » What If we HAD to get to Mars on Short Notice » 2007-01-12 16:00:06

...at the rate things are progressing the past 30 years, I'd say if we had to get to Mars on short notice we'd be screwedroll

Getting there is a hard problem but not as hard as getting back. It's doable one way relatively quickly, say in 10 years given the funding. The "hold and and build" model is one approach. The first crew of six on Mars would stay indefinitely, they would be resupplied regularly as they built up infrastructure and explored. The capability to return two crew would be possible in the first cycle. Additional crew would be added as the base expanded. The plan would be to maintain a permanent presence and slowly grow it as capabilities were established. Some of the initial crew might never return to Earth.

What are you talking about? Thats a crazy idea

No it's not... once you have a secure, permanent base large enough to absorb such shift changes. 

Trying to start off that way is insanely risky, though.

#71 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Mars Homesteads colony plan to recycle waste » 2007-01-12 15:53:25

Do you envision a Mars base sitting next to a huge pile of garbage?

Yes. 

Almost anything worth recycling will keep at -60C temperature, and all that's necessary to store it for centuries is a properly secured plastic cover.  If we like the location, equipment for 100% recycling can come later.  If we don't like the location, the trash midden will be the least valuable thing left behind.

#72 Re: Human missions » Shouldn't there be more focus on surface mobility? » 2007-01-11 21:21:33

Well, I foresee a number of missions (say, 4-5?) being sent over the whole surface of Mars, and they should each have pressurized rovers that seat at least three (or six for short periods). After these missions have flown, and we have decided on where to build the base, then the manned missions will transition mainly to cargo flights of base hardware for one or two biannual launch windows. Then maybe we can talk about a reusable suborbital rocket vehicle.

I foresee a shorter seguey.  We almost have enough data already to pick potential sites for a manned base.  Start with probes directly to those sites to prospect for water and resources (say, 4-5?), then send some base hardware first (don't wait - it's better to risk losing it before the crew leaves Earth than after, and you don't have to send all your caches to one spot), then send a single manned expedition once everything is soaking on the surface, waiting for them. 

One expedition is enough to find a location suitable for a base - even if its not the first landing site.  Of course, if they have to practically land blind, with no prior reconnaissance, then four to five missions to locate a good place becomes a rather optimistic estimate.

#73 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Gamma ray bursts point to dark matter source? » 2007-01-11 12:59:44

Why do we assume each black hole emits one gamma ray burst per day? Does the frequency or size of a gamma ray burst depend on the size of the black hole?

As far as I've read, there are no known instances of a GRB source repeating, so they're probably not a constant source that is rotating.  One current model suggests that they are supernova-like events, and probably not frequent in any given galaxy. 

I believe I've figured out where that 1/20000 figure comes from - it's the ratio of the subtended area of two 1 degree wide jets versus the surface area of a sphere.

Nickname, getting the projected black hole mass up to 50% of the universe takes a lot of fudging.  The most likely value with our current assumptions is 0.5% to 5%, with 50% being the crazed outer limit of a wild-ass guess.  Realistically, I can only get you to 5%.

#74 Re: Human missions » Shouldn't there be more focus on surface mobility? » 2007-01-11 06:46:36

This topic is also related to this thread.  Abandoning the idea of a permanent base is the ultimate in emphasizing mobility.

However, I'm beginning to believe that the ability to stay at a central base and work there will prove just as important for the first missions.  In that case, the current level of mobility - able to send a small fraction of the crew long distances in a pressurized rover or a large fraction very short distances using unpressurized rovers - is perfectly adequate.

#75 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Gamma ray bursts point to dark matter source? » 2007-01-10 16:50:25

Thanks, Nickname.  Upon consideration, 10 events per day and 1/20000 detection probability may be within the realm of the possible, provided their model is correct.  I would tend to doubt that, except that none of these has ever repeated to my knowlege (i.e., it's not something rotating) and there have been several cases of associated visible supernovas.  So, the model is probably about right, too.

There've probably been about 1 quintillion of these things since the beginning of the universe - each leaving behind around 3 to 10 solar masses.

That's cool.   8)

I still have doubts about the ability of this to explain gravitational deviations on the intergalactic scale, though.

The SWIFT observatory has identified events with redshifts as high as z=3.2.  That's near the edge of the visible universe - about 10 billion light years away.  At that distance, "brighter" events would be more visible, but that's still one heck of a horizon.  There are a lot of stars in that space - probably at least 1000 for every black hole formed in a GRB, and that's a highly conservative estimate (10000 or more would not surprise me - I need a better estimate for the number of stars in a 10 BLY sphere   :? ).  Most of those won't be solar mass, so the actual mass of black holes will be more favorable.  But it's still only a few percent at best - a start, nothing more. 

This does not account for the 90% difference in observable mass predicted by "Dark Matter" theories. 

Of course, these guesses are quite wild.  SWIFT results might only be linear to three billion light years or so.  My guesstimate of the stellar density might still be too high, although it's as low as I can take it with a straight face.  A combination of either might decrease my calculated stellar mass by as much as a factor of 20, making GRB black holes able to explain as much as - maybe - 50% of the mass in the universe. 

Where's the rest?

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