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As I understand it, America's rising debt is making it less likely people will want to keep lending her money at the present exchange rate so she can finance her spending. For this reason, the exchange rate will have to alter - downwards.
But this needn't be a disaster, if it happens in a gradual and orderly fashion. In fact, it's a like a pressure-relief valve, a corrective process, because a weaker U.S. dollar means it will cost Americans more to buy foreign goods, while making American exports cheaper for the rest of the world to buy. Obviously, this will enhance U.S. exports and reign in imports, which will, in turn, improve the deficit and relieve downward pressure on the U.S. dollar.
Unfortunately, even if the decline in the dollar is gradual and therefore less likely to cause major disruption to international trade etc., the resultant rise in the price of imported goods in the U.S. will tend to increase inflation. Since inflation is recognised as the number one enemy of economies everywhere, the Federal Reserve will probably raise interest rates to discourage borrowing and spending. This 'chokes off' the money supply to an extent and takes the heat out of inflation. But, of course, if interest rates are higher, borrowing money for business enterprises is higher too, and this tends to reduce economic expansion.
So, while a gradual and orderly devaluation of the U.S. dollar will help alleviate the deficit problem (reduced government spending would be helpful too, of course), it will reduce growth in America's GDP. There may be some belt-tightening necessary in some quarters if and when this translates into increased unemployment.
[DISCLAIMER: I am not an economist and neither am I a financial advisor. The above is information I've gleaned from perusing the financial press over the years. Before making any financial decisions based on this summary, you would be extremely well-advised to seek competent professional guidance!!! :laugh: ]
Hi John!
It's an interesting thought but I suspect atmospheric drag is going to be the show-stopper.
If the scoop is kept high in the atmosphere, to minimise drag, your centre of gravity will be higher, meaning a lower orbital velocity and consequently slower scoop speed, and there's less gas available to scoop.
On the other hand, if the scoop is allowed to operate in lower denser regions of the atmosphere, where intake of gases would be much greater, and your centre of gravity lower and orbital speed higher, the effects of drag on the whole structure would also be much greater.
It seems likely to me you'd either have too little gas flow to make it worth the trouble, or so much drag you'd be using all the gas flow just to feed the station-keeping engines!
Of course, I may be quite wrong about the whole thing and a mathematical evaluation might demonstrate it can be done. But I doubt it because it smacks a little too much of the old classic perpetual-motion-machine concept. Friction is a powerful dissipator of energy and entropy is hard to beat.
:bars:
Without any prompting, and simply from memory, if you'd asked me that question I would have said Neptune.
I seem to recall reading there was some amazement among scientists that the farther away from the Sun's heat the gas giants orbit, the faster their wind speeds seem to be. In fact, there was a small white cloud seen by Voyager in the Neptunian atmosphere and it was dubbed 'scooter', because it sped around the planet so fast.
But perhaps they've decided they were wrong in the light of new information(?). I really don't know the answer.
???
An impressively simple system, Rik.
I don't mean 'simple' as in dumb, I mean 'simple' as in fewer things to go wrong and therefore better. And it might well work - especially if something like your incremental risk strategy is employed.
As I've said, I want it to work! If we can't have a real geologist on the surface, this would be a good surrogate.
How much developmental lead-up time do you think it would take to get the AI system reliable enough to risk $300-400 million on?
There is good evidence that the level of Earth's oceans is normally some 200 metres higher when there is no ice cap at either pole.
In other words, the water currently locked up as polar ice is ordinarily part of the oceans, not part of the ionosphere.
[P.S. A belated welcome to New Mars!]
You people have got to stop talking about all that delicious food like that!
I'm a kilo over and trying to cut back a little - gimme a break willya. ???
Anyways, I hope all my American cousins had a great Thanksgiving. (I wonder what date the martian version will fall on?)
A very nice idea!
Dr. Z always impresses me with his 'let's get on with it' attitude. As you say, he never seems to rest.
The biggest problem to be overcome, I think, will be something that was glossed over pretty quickly in the article, and that is "hazard avoidance".
Every manoeuvre made by the MERs is planned, discussed, calculated, etc, before it's executed because of the time-lag between instructing the rover to move and finally seeing what happened after the event. In a very real sense, once the command to move is sent, we're driving blind. Admittedly it's a calculated and, so far, very successful strategy but it is an act of faith to some extent; a little like looking down the road from your parked car, figuring out you should be able to proceed safely for a distance of about 50 metres, then closing your eyes and hitting the accelerator!
And the MERs have the advantage that they can see where they'll be going.
This gashopper will be moving to brand new places it's never seen before, and landing there, without detailed input from scientists on Earth - unless it can hover over a potential landing site long enough to get a picture to JPL (or wherever) and wait for a yea or nay to come back.
I'm definitely not trying to rain on Dr. Z's neat idea; far from it, I'd love to see it up and working on Mars. It's just that we'll be needing a degree of onboard artificial intelligence I'm not sure we have the technology for just yet.
However, I'll be more than happy for someone to explain to me I'm way behind the times on this and that the technology is available and mature enough to do the job.
[Ideally, of course, we could save ourselves a lot of time and faffing around and just get on with the job of implementing Mars Direct A.S.A.P. We could have the first Hab settling into the martian dirt by 2018 if we had but the will to do it.]
Rik .. that's beautiful! :laugh:
Now I can't get the same picture out of my mind!
Oops!
I wasn't aware of the term 'gravity waves' being used in meteorology. I assumed, incorrectly, that you were referring to the kind of gravity waves LIGO is being tuned to detect. A stupid mistake.
Pardon me but my ignorance is showing!
My apologies for completely misinterpreting what you meant. If I'd paid more attention in meteorology classes in school ..
Hi Atomoid.
Sorry I haven't been back to this thread lately.
There are many factors contributing to Earth's overall climate or average temperature, including the positions of the continents, the extent of volcanism, the amount of tectonic mountain building etc.
The continental plates are constantly shifting; slamming together into supercontinents, then parting company, only to slam together once more.
In doing this, they can assume positions which interfere with global oceanic currents and perhaps disrupt the transfer of heat from equatorial to polar regions. They can even trap an ocean at one of the poles, as is the case today with our Arctic Ocean, which is almost landlocked, or take up position right over a pole, as Antarctica has done. This shifting of land masses not only affects oceanic circulation, but also the movement of warm and cold air masses.
Obviously volcanoes add CO2 and water vapour to the atmosphere, so periods of intense volcanic activity can add greatly to Earth's atmospheric greenhouse effect. There have been suggestions lately that large reservoirs of methane clathrates are stored over geological time in sediments on the sea floor. These reservoirs would be easily disturbed by volcanic and earthquake activity and perhaps suddenly release methane into the atmosphere in great quantities. Methane, as I'm sure you know, is a much more effective greenhouse gas than CO2, which means Earth could have been subjected to sudden 'spikes' in average temperature well above long-term averages.
As continental plates collide and oceanic plates subduct, mountain ranges are pushed up. When this happens, the amount of erosion and 'weathering' of rock increases, which causes CO2 to be sequestered in carbonate rocks. This reduces the greenhouse effect and cools the planet.
The way life responds to the changing conditions is also a factor. When continental positions and other factors created a perfect environment for lush vegetation during the carboniferous period, concentrations of CO2 fell, again producing a marked global cooling.
The present climate on Earth is cold, with the global mean temperature being about 15 deg.C. Without the greenhouse effect of gases like water vapour, methane and CO2, of course, the global mean temperature would be much colder still, at -18 deg.C. So greenhouse gases are a good thing to have!
But for most of the last 600 million years, the average temperature has been well above 17 deg.C, and for about half of that 600 million years it was 22 deg.C.
It's actually very rare for Earth to be as cold as it is now for this long, and quite common for it to be 7 deg.C warmer. A big difference.
When you look at the big picture, you see that a long-term increase in global temperatures is probably to be expected; aside from a few hiccups, the trend is likely to be up. And, as and when that happens, it will only be returning Earth to its customary much warmer conditions.
This is one of the reasons I don't fret too much about the 0.7 deg.C rise in global temperatures purported to have occurred in the last 150 years. Agreed, if it's going to continue and/or accelerate, it will eventually cause problems we'll need to adapt to, so better to play safe with CO2 emissions. But I don't worry too much about a runaway greenhouse effect because, with Earth presently in the grip of a severe ice-age, we've got plenty of leeway before anything that dramatic happens! Plainly, if Earth's climatic balance were that fragile, those much warmer conditions in the past would have turned the place into another Venus a long time ago.
There's a very interesting graph of Earth's average temperature since Pre-Cambrian times at the bottom of http://www.scotese.com/climate.htm]THIS WEB PAGE.
I know this looks a bit off-topic, but I think understanding Earth's substantial climatic variations over geological time spans, even though the planet looks so stable from our limited human vantage point, is good preparation for considering how different Mars may have been in the past. And life hangs on tight once it gets a grip!
Gravity waves are extremely weak, which is why they've never been detected up to now. They couldn't be responsible for those cloud waves.
My guess is it's probably to do with the high-speed winds blowing across the crater walls. You know how blowing across the mouth of an empty bottle produces a sound? This is due to pressure oscillations in the air, setting up standing waves inside the bottle - if I remember my highschool physics correctly.
I suspect similar pressure oscillations, though at a much lower frequency, are produced by wind blowing across a crater. This may be the cause of the clouds' wave pattern in the thin air above the crater floor.
Excellent posts, Dickbill and Gennaro. Not just the content, which was entertaining and informative, but the way you guys express yourselves so well in a language which is not your own. Brilliant stuff! :up:
I have a copy of "The Fifth Miracle", by Dr. Paul Davies, which I think I've mentioned before. He deals with this type of discussion about complexity, entropy and information, and his treatment of these confirms, at least to me, how mystifying the rise of any life, let alone sentient life, really is.
I don't think I have anything intelligent or original to add to what's been said already, except to say it's almost like Dr. Davies is struggling at the borderline between science and religion in his book. He traces the development of our understanding - or otherwise - of how complex carbon molecules might organise themselves into self-replicating structures and appears to come to the conclusion that we're a very long way from anything remotely resembling a coherent hypothesis.
I understood most of the scientific concepts in the book but not all of them. However, there was no doubt that he believes we're missing something very important, something fundamental, in our efforts to explain life. He stops short of invoking God to help things along - he is a tenured scientist after all! - but he seems to be implying that there may be something about life which science might never be able to explain.
A great communicator, that Dr. Davies; he simplifies without 'dumbing down'.
Sure does! :up:
Zubrin, Rutan, Cameron, Musk, Bigelow, etc. .. all visionaries with the guts to back their dream.
And still we need more of them - to overcome the windbags and the bean counters! :angry:
Well, GCNR, I understand where you're coming from here but, in my experience, getting annoyed with someone over a theoretical point rarely helps to get the point across.
ERRORIST, let's forget about running tubes up the space elevator to geosynchronous orbit for a moment. There's something fundamental about liquids in tubes I think you are not aware of.
Let's imagine something very straightforward and basic: I have a clear plastic tube 20 metres long. I place the tube in my swimming pool and jiggle it around to get all the air bubbles out, ensuring the whole tube is completely filled with water. O.K.? The tube is fully immersed in my pool and it's full of water.
Now, I reach in and place an airtight watertight bung in one end of the tube, ensuring the tube remains submerged and full of water at all times.
Next, I lift the sealed end of the tube out of the pool, again ensuring the open end stays beneath the surface and the tube remains filled with water.
I then proceed to raise the sealed end of the tube higher and higher, by means of climbing a handy 15 metre step-ladder standing next to the pool. (Doncha just love these thought experiments?! :;): )
Once the sealed end of the tube gets to a height of 10.3 metres above the surface of the pool water, something interesting happens. Even though we lift the sealed end higher still, the level of water inside the tube remains at 10.3 metres above the level of the pool water.
As we move up the ladder, raising the sealed end of the tube to 15.3 metres above the water in the pool, we notice the water level inside the tube is now 5 metres below the bung.
So, what's in the tube above the water? Effectively a vacuum. (I say "effectively" because it's not a 'hard vacuum'; there will be a tiny amount of water vapour present but, if you could get inside the tube, you'd need a pressure suit to survive.)
So, why doesn't the vacuum suck the water up into the top 5 metres of the tube? The answer is that a vacuum doesn't actually 'suck' anything. Things like gases and fluids have to be pushed into a vacuum by the higher pressure in their vicinity.
Holding up a column of water against the influence of gravity, inside a plastic tube, takes pressure. The pressure, in our example above, is supplied by the weight of Earth's atmosphere pushing down on the surface of the pool water. But that weight is completely balanced by the weight of just 10.3 metres of water inside the tube. The atmosphere can't push down hard enough to support a column of water any higher than this.
Any clearer?
I'm afraid dragging that wheel like that will cause accelerated wear and tear somewhere else. It doesn't look good.
:bars:
O.K., I'm listening.
You've got the two open ends close to sea-level, one end 10 feet higher than the other.
Now, how high is the bend?
What, exactly, are you trying to achieve?
Hi ERRORIST.
GCNRevenger is quite correct, I'm afraid, and so is Austin Stanley. An inverted U-shaped tube won't work as a siphon at anything near the lengths you have in mind.
What drives the siphon effect we're all familiar with is the weight of the atmosphere pushing down on the surface of the liquid you're trying to siphon.
Suppose you wish to remove water from Container A and place it in Container B. Obviously, you put one end of a rubber hose (or similar) into the water in Container A and place the other end - lower than the water surface in A - over the open top of Container B. You suck the open end of the hose until water comes out of it and, as long as you hold the open end lower than the water surface in Container A, the water will keep flowing up out of A into B.
But will this always work? Not necessarily.
Suppose that Container A is a cylinder, say, 3 metres in diameter (the diameter is not important here) and 12 metres in height. The water in it is 1 metre deep. You climb up the cylinder, lower your hose into the water, and drop the other end down to Container B, which you have ensured is lower than the surface of the water in A. In this situation, the top of the hose, our inverted-U, is 11 metres above the surface of the water in A.
You suck on the hose but can't get the water to rise up and out of Container A. Ahah, you cry! It's just the extra weight of water because the cylinder happens to be so high. So you get a powerful pump to get the siphon effect working and then all is well .. isn't it?
No. The water won't siphon - even if you use the most powerful pump on Earth! It's simply impossible.
Earth's atmosphere pushes down on the surface of the water in Container A with enough force to support a column of water approximately 10.3 metres high inside your hose. But the vertical distance from the water surface to the top of the cylindrical container is 11 metres. Even if you create an absolute vacuum inside the hose, the water will never rise up to the top of Container A and flow over and down into Container B because Earth's atmosphere can't push down hard enough to support an 11 metre column of water.
10.3 metres. That's it for water. Trying to use the siphon effect to transport water into space just can't work.
Incidentally, if you have an inverted-U tube with both open ends at or near sea-level and the top of the inverted-U above the vast majority of the atmosphere, at a height of 500 km, the air pressure inside the top of the tube will be equal to that of the atmosphere outside the tube, i.e. a very good vacuum. In fact, the air pressure inside the tube at any height you care to specify will always be equal to the air pressure outside the tube at that same height.
Does that help to clarify the situation?
It's always nice to be considered for things like this but I really don't have the computer-smarts for it. I'm so primitive it's as much as I can do just to post stuff here!
I haven't even figured out how to do a custom-made icon or post a picture yet!
[But soon ... I'll learn soon!! ]
Yeah, thanks Remcook.
This is just the information I've been looking for. Cindy kindly brought over a question I'd asked, from another thread, about getting to Victoria Crater before the onset of the global dust-storm season.
It seems from Dr. Squyres' assessment of the situation that Victoria Crater may be out of reach anyway. But the etched terrain is a worthy target to look forward to, and there's the heat shield and the "cobbles" strewn along the way to keep us amused in the meantime.
It's good to know they think they can get Oppy over to the etched terrain in a month or so, depending on other attractions we may come across on the journey, of course. It looks hopeful that we'll get to see lots more useful science and discoveries before the weather turns nasty.
And I'm not forgetting our trusty Spirit's courageous ascent into the Columbia Hills, either. Ignoring an injured 'foot' and short of 'food', Spirit is pushing on regardless, in a show of intrepid mechanical determination worthy of the great human explorers of the past.
Spirit, we salute you!
CC:-
... it seems there's way too much empty space and lifeless junk serving no apparent purpose.
...... It's almost as though the people running NASA created the universe.
Ha-ha !! :laugh:
I love it! It's cutting..very cutting, but I love it.
I know this isn't my party but I'm a Mars Direct fan and I agree with Bill on virtually every point he's made, Josh too.
I don't really see why Mars Direct is perceived by some as another Apollo-type dead end. Actually Apollo didn't have to be a dead end itself; it just turned out that way. The hardware for Apollo was evolving quickly, mission by mission, and there were some very promising plans being made for future landings. And it seems likely to me that production-line manufacture of Saturn V parts would have reduced basic costs as time went by.
Apart from the political situation back in the early seventies, I think the lunar program died, as much as anything else, for the simple reason that the Moon is a relatively boring place, at least in the mind of the average 'person-in-the-street'. (That's heresy to lunar scientists of course! And for reasons I understand very well. But the argument is, I think, still valid.)
Initially, Mars Direct would look a lot like Apollo. But I think the key difference is that each mission would leave a functional Habitation Module on the surface, whereas each Apollo landing left only the spent descent stage of the Lunar Module, some instruments, and some garbage!
From memory, once a string of Habs had been left at strategic points all around Mars - Habs that could be pressed into service again later as exploration outposts, once resupplied with consumables - the idea was to land subsequent Habs in a cluster at the most suitable spot and join them up into a permanently manned proto-colony.
Mars Direct is a relatively cheap modular exploration/colonisation system which would enable the staged and achievable build-up of a human presence on Mars, starting almost immediately. The science return would be staggering and the psychological, hence inspirational, hence educational and technological spin-offs would fuel a surge in human advancement we can only dimly perceive from our present vantage point.
The Moon has, at best, only marginal utility for the testing of Mars hardware under real space conditions; marginal because the conditions on the Moon and Mars are almost completely different. The day/night-length is totally different, the temperature range is very different, the intensity of sunlight is very different, the weather (or lack thereof) is totally different, the gravitational acceleration is very different, and the availability of accessible volatiles is radically different.
Add in the mathematics of how much it will cost to go to Mars via the Moon and the picture of pointless incompatibility is complete.
You might as well suggest an athlete should practise hard at archery to prepare for the Olympic finals in the shot-put!
Yep, I'm a Mars Direct fan! (Just expressing an opinion and rehashing the reasons for it.)
No, I wasn't surprised about the stars not colliding when galaxies do; I read that somewhere before.
But what does happen, so I'm led to believe, is a major gravitational upheaval. As most of us here probably realise, it's widely thought by scientists that our Oort cloud can be disturbed by the gravity of stars passing within a certain distance of us, even in a relatively orderly system like ours.
In the chaotic aftermath of a 'galactic mingling', as I prefer to think of it, the frequency of 'close passes' is expected to increase significantly. In our case, that mightn't bother the Sun very much but it would surely create another era of heavy meteoritic bombardment for the planets.
There won't be any life on Earth, of course, in 2 or 3 billion years but increased planetary bombardment throughout our galaxy and Andromeda might make life difficult or impossible in many other star systems - preventing its genesis in some cases or snuffing it out in others.
I know there are people who recoil at the idea of humanity moving asteroids, comets and KBOs around to suit themselves in some technologically advanced future - playing celestial snooker! But, when you look at mother nature carelessly smashing whole galaxies into each other .. !!
It's evidently an uncaring universe out there and planetary real estate isn't really sacred. That's why terraforming and celestial snooker don't bother me that much, I guess. Life is short and the life of a species is short; I think we need to grab our opportunities with both hands.
Bill, I'd be surprised if there's an original episode of Star Trek out there that I haven't seen at least once!
Your quote: "Our occupation forces create bitterness and hate."
I'm very much looking forward to the day they all come home.
There must be millions of moderate Muslims - I hope.
Hmmm.
I was aware that Earth's continental crust is thicker than the oceanic crust but I didn't realise the ratio is 7:1.
The oceanic plates are disconcertingly thin!
Thus proving the old term "Fixed Stars" was ever a misnomer! Interesting to see. :up: