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#401 Re: Not So Free Chat » Happy Birthday Dr. Smith- Nov. 6th » 2005-02-13 18:48:29

Rik:-

Mothers, hide your daughters!  big_smile

    Don't be silly, Rik!

    MadGrad's not obsessed with girls. Are you, MadGrad?
    MadGrad?! ....

    ... HEY, MadGrad ... Put that girl down and stop making a damned nuisance of yourself!!!   roll
                                             big_smile

    Oh, and have a nice Birthday, too.   tongue

#402 Re: Unmanned probes » Opportunity & Spirit **8** - ...More... » 2005-02-11 17:05:48

Correction.
    In my post about the 'asparagus stems', I compared them to the 'crinoid' fossil discovered last year. Unfortunately, I attributed that discovery to Spirit during its Sol 33 'microscopic' investigations.
    In fact, the 'crinoid' was found by Opportunity in the course of its Sol 34 activities.

    I've found the full picture of that 'crinoid', with blueberries nearby for size-comparison, and I thought I'd paste it here as part of this correction:-

1M131201538EFF0500P2933M2M1-BR.JPG

    Still looks suspiciously like biological remains to me - the cylindrical segments neatly arranged, the bifurcating segment on top ...
    Hmmm.  ???    :;):

#403 Re: Unmanned probes » Opportunity & Spirit **8** - ...More... » 2005-02-11 16:37:40

Thanks for the links, REB.  :up:
    I wish we could just phone Dr. Squyres occasionally and run some of these pictures past him for a comment!
    I get a little frustrated that we're not getting any expert-opinion-feedback on stuff like this any more - no press announcements or science summaries etc. All we get is a stream of photographs, which is great, of course, but no information to help put it all into perspective.
    I guess we'll have to wait many months before the first books and papers emerge out of all this data(?).   ???    roll

#404 Re: Unmanned probes » Opportunity & Spirit **8** - ...More... » 2005-02-11 07:20:58

I just noticed a couple of interesting 'microscopic' pictures from Spirit.

    The first is from Sol 376:-

2M159745460EFFA2HPP2957M2M1-BR.JPG

    It was the light-coloured object in the top half of the picture which caught my eye. It looks a little like a fossilized clump of asparagus stems to me!
    I know crystals can grow into shapes remarkably like biological forms, so we can't possibly know what this thing really is unless we send people there to pick it up and examine it. But I thought you might like to see it, if you haven't already.   smile


    This 'microscopic' shot was taken on Sol 386:-

2M160631672EFFA2K1P2957M2M1-BR.JPG

    At first glance, I thought for a moment that the "ceiling rose" near the middle of the picture looked like a fossilized plant or coral, or something along those lines.
    Almost immediately, though, I realized it's just an artifact of Spirit's rotary brush.
    But it had me going there for a second!!   tongue   big_smile


    Just going back to the first photo - does anyone have any thoughts about the "asparagus stems"?  While you think it over, put it in the context of the infamous "fossilized crinoid" which Spirit found, then RATted, early in its mission.
    The "crinoid" and the "asparagus", considered individually, are easier to dismiss than if you consider them together. Not that I'm suggesting we can't simply dismiss both as no more than interesting curiosities, of course ... because we certainly can and, evidently, we already have!

    But these things do make me think when I see them, and I still wonder sometimes whether we could be cheerfully rolling past whole fossil beds on Mars without even realizing it. The potential irony of it is almost unbearable to contemplate, isn't it?!    :bars:

#405 Re: Unmanned probes » Cassini-Huygens III - Continued from previous » 2005-02-10 23:05:37

Cindy:-

So I feel it's incorrect to say "Saturn is a blue planet"...it's only partly blue apparently.  And all the more lovely for it.

    Thanks, REB and Cindy for that discussion and for the quotes. It's made the issue much clearer.  smile

LtlPhysics:-

Does this mean that every planet with an appreciable atmosphere always scatters radiation that is at least as energetic as blue light?

    I think it depends to an extent on the constituents of the atmosphere you're talking about. Obviously dust on a planet like Mars, and even in places here on Earth of course, can permeate the air and absorb blue light, leaving a distinctly red hue to the sky.
    But, all things being equal, white light travelling through an atmosphere will tend to have the shorter wavelength (blue) light preferentially scattered. The longer wavelength end of the visible spectrum (red) scatters less and penetrates better.
    (This is why rear fog lights on our vehicles are red, because the red light is scattered less by water vapour in the air and penetrates more efficiently, enhancing the visibility of vehicles on the road ahead of us.)

    Interestingly, though, I once read an article about Mars which suggested that, even if we were to create (re-create?) a 1 bar atmosphere of CO2 there, the sky would probably appear white rather than blue (! ). I've never seen a satisfactory explanation for this assertion and I'd be interested to see the rationale behind it.
                                                 ???   smile

#406 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2005-02-10 07:10:55

Awww, Clark.
    Who was it said you're obnoxious and offensive?   :laugh:

#408 Re: Unmanned probes » Cassini-Huygens III - Continued from previous » 2005-02-10 06:54:30

Wait a minute!
    Now Saturn's blue?!   ???

    For years they've been telling us it's pastel pinky-yellowy- orangey-beige. Now it's blue!
                                                       roll

#409 Re: Not So Free Chat » Happy Birthday Dr. Smith- Nov. 6th » 2005-02-10 05:37:06

Yes, indeed ... what Cindy said goes for me, too!   smile
    I hope you have a wonderful Birthday!
                                              :up:   smile

#410 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2005-02-10 02:50:31

Your undiminished disdain for my opinions and interpretations of world events is noted, Bill. (And I'm fine with that.)
    One thing I do wish, though, is that Clinton had launched the liberation of Iraq, instead of Bush. There's absolutely no doubt in my mind that that would have made everything all right and we could get on with things, without all this tiresome spite.
    You see, Bill, President Bush isn't my "Precious Leader". I'm not an American. None of what I think about the liberation of Iraq depends on any personal preference for who does the liberating; I support the concept itself and I've always believed it was worth the effort.

    Just for the record, I never said: "Bush will be noted by history as an exceptional leader". He hasn't done enough yet to warrant that kind of prediction. ('Many a slip twixt cup and lip', and all that!  )
    I said things like: "It looks increasingly likely to me that President Bush .. "
    And: " We could be seeing another American Presidential legend in the making. Stranger things have happened."
    I believe it was your own feelings about your own President that caused you to react so strongly. All I'm doing is calling it the way I see it, from the outside looking in.
    So sue me!  big_smile

    I think you're too close to the problem, Bill. Stand back a little and try to see it other than through the eyes of a devout Democrat. The world is actually a little bigger than America's Senate and Congress - trust me!

    Catholic, huh?  How do you manage .. coping with two religions?   big_smile

   [P.S. Don't bother telling me how Catholicism works, old chap; I was brought up a Catholic and I have painful first-hand experience of it.
     I know 'hatred for the sin' when I see it, too. What you have goes considerably deeper than that, I think.
    But maybe I'm wrong.  smile  ]

#411 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2005-02-09 19:27:09

CC:-

Starting with the trivial things, the Kool-Aid reference is I suppose one of those little American culture things that doesn't translate well. Back in the '70's this kook Jim Jones led a cult down to South America to set up a religious utopia. Needless to say, it didn't work out, and the entire group committed suicide by drinking poisoned Kool-Aid.

"Drinking the Kool-Aid" can now be used to describe blind adherence to any self-destructive idea, hence Bill's reference.

    Thanks, CC, for further clarifying this 'Kool-Aid' thing. I remember the mass-suicide in South America but I don't think the actual drink used by the cult devotees to bump themselves off was emphasized in news items here. As far as I can remember, the story was just that they just took poison.
    Anyhow, I can see how throwing "Kool-Aid' at someone in a discussion could become a way of indicating, in a darkly humorous fashion, that your fellow debater is a mindless cult-follower. But no such habit developed in Australia, hence my puzzlement.

Bill:-

Exactly!  big_smile

    Very astute, Bill!
    It looks like you've seen through my little charade and discovered the truth about me.  O.K., I admit it!  I don't live in Australia, I'm a Texan Fundamentalist Christian who believes President George W. Bush is ordained by God to lead America and the rest of the world in a mission prophesied in the Bible. He is presiding over the End Times and must fulfill his destiny in making clear the pathway to Armageddon, the final conflict of Good and Evil in the Plain of Megiddo.
    I guess my motives became transparent when you realized my hatred for President Bush was not as fervent, all-encompassing, and pure as your own .. and I'd tried so hard not to let that slip.
                                                                   :laugh:

   [ It seems I've failed in my appointed task to infiltrate the Church of the Demon-cratic Party. I suppose the only honourable way out for me now is .. yep, you guessed it ..pass me that Kool-Aid!!   tongue   big_smile  ]

#412 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2005-02-09 02:06:23

Bill:-

Economics will rule.

    I think that's what the Romans thought.   :laugh:

#413 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2005-02-09 02:04:07

Thanks for confirming at least some of what I thought about the 'Kool-Aid' thing, Cindy.
    The other implications, I can work out for myself!   big_smile

[::Edit::
    No, I've neither seen nor tasted 'Tang'. The only reference I have to 'Tang' is with regard to the space program in the 60s and all I know is it's some kind of orange-flavoured drink(?).]

#414 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2005-02-08 19:42:56

I think too many people have an idealized view of Europeans, that they're a more mature, community-spirited, and sophisticated kind of people.
    Actually, they're just like other human beings in America and Australia and elsewhere. If they're presently more communal and cooperative among themselves, it's purely circumstantial and probably fuelled by the still extant reverberations of two massive wars last century, plus the threat of a Soviet invasion for most of the latter half of that century.

    Bill's notion that Europe is somehow a unified bloc probably stems from reading books and articles like the one he quoted, in which Rifkin speaks of Europeans as though they're all from the one country.
    I believe the reality is quite different. Europe is still very much a collection of individual nation-states, however much the E.U., as an organization, tries to unify them by such means as a common currency, etc. It's possible that the E.U.'s efforts, particularly via monetary homogenization, could eventually bring about a more profound unification, but I have my doubts.

    My view is that history hasn't stopped; at least not yet. It was probably true, after ancient Rome had existed, expanded, and prospered for several centuries, that the people of the time assumed the status quo was a permanent thing. The days of localized tribal warfare were over, civilization had arrived, and the Pax Romana that protected that civilization would endure indefinitely. Europe had learned from its barbaric history and found a better way.
    Little did they realise that world events would shortly carry Europe back down into the barbarity she thought she'd left forever, and keep it there for a thousand years. History hadn't stopped at all; it had only paused, very temporarily. But, if you'd suggested such a possibility in the time of Hadrian, for example, you'd have been laughed out of the Forum.

    European unity is shaky, in my view. Countries like France, Italy, Germany, and perhaps particularly Britain, are still very much paddling their own canoes and looking after their own interests. As long as individual countries vote for individual leaders to meet their own individual aspirations, that will inevitably continue.
    There are antagonistic political forces at work inside individual European countries and inside Europe as a whole. As well as the socialist groups which exist in large numbers, there is a growing groundswell of fascist interests. In fact, even in Russia recently, a large number of parliamentary members voted to have Jewish organizations outlawed within Russia because Jews were alleged to have obtained state property by illicit means (or accusations to that effect).
    CC is quite right that it's politically naive to see Europe as opposing America. The situation is nowhere near as black-and-white as that and I'm surprised that Bill, who is always so careful to point out the dangers of assuming that degree of polarization, should fall into the trap he's constantly warning others about.

    The countries of the E.U. are always squabbling and disagreeing about almost everything, which makes them ineffectual when decisive and visionary action is called for.
    The parallels with the U.N., another example of institutionalized self-interest and corruption, are inescapable.
    While it would be lovely to imagine a world of peace and justice, presided over by a U.N. made up of wise altruistic leaders, whose primary concerns are human dignity and the welfare of all, to believe that is happening now, or likely to happen soon, is just further conspicuous naivety. The same applies to Europe.
    Not that the U.S., as a single entity, is immune to all the same diseases I've just mentioned. Corruption is part of politics everywhere, on all sides.

    But, when it comes to positive action in the world, countries like Australia and America, to name just two, are in a position to 'do' rather than 'discuss'. As an example, when the recent tsunami devastated south-east Asian countries, Australia and America were first on the scene with real, practical, there-on-the-ground aid. They didn't need to call a committee meeting in Brussels or a U.N. summit meeting in New York to decide what to do.
    America, of course, being not only an independent nation state but also the current economic and military top-dog, is in an especially advantageous position to act when action is required.
Bill:-

   

Cool, but we accomplish all this just in time to begin to witness the decline of the nation-state as the pre-eminent unit of human political organization.

    Bill, you state this with such authority, as though it is self-evidently true. Yet everything we see in the world today contradicts that notion. The only political entities able to act decisively appear to be those not made up of ill-fitting components, constantly chafing against one another.
    You yourself draw attention to the entities you see as challenging U.S. supremacy. With the exception of the E.U. (whose unity is very much open to debate), they're all nation states like India, Russia, and China.

    The nation state is certainly not dead and I doubt it's even on the decline. In fact, there are good grounds to argue that the era of conglomerates of nations will prove short-lived and not become the universal panacea, the new utopia, that many imagine.

    Just a few more thoughts.   smile

[P.S. I believe Kool-Aid is some kind of sweet drink, though I've never seen it or tasted it. Am I right in thinking Bill was 'singing' some kind of advertising jingle for the stuff?
        If so, I don't have any idea why that happened, although I guess it was somehow meant to trivialize something I said. Can anyone tell me what was going on with that? I honestly haven't a clue. Thanks.   :up:  ]

#415 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2005-02-08 07:54:40

CC:-

.. but it must be said that some good is being accomplished and this will not be looked on as unfavorably as is fashionable at the moment. 10, 15 years down the line we'll be hearing a very different story unless something goes dramatically wrong.

    My thoughts exactly.
    I was reading a newspaper account of recent events in the Middle East and things are looking up:-
    Afghanistan has had a successful election, in which women were able to participate - three years ago, they couldn't do anything .. they were non-persons, one of the most oppressed groups on earth.
    The Palestinians have had a successful election for the first time in 9 years and there is a real prospect for an end to the bloodshed with Israel, brokered by Egypt.
    The Iraqi people have turned out in large numbers and have had a stunningly successful election, too, against all the odds. Many of the liberal-left denied that the Iraqi election was feasible due to the violence, or because the Iraqis wouldn't understand what was being offered to them, or because they would reject democracy in protest at the Coalition's presence. The Iraqis have shown enormous courage and have shown the world they know perfectly well what democracy is all about and that they want it.
    Lebanon is due for an election soon and the new atmosphere of democracy in the region may well see the election put an end to Syrian imperialism in that country, if the Opposition wins.

    It feels like the whole mood in the Middle East is changing; and for the better, too. Here's a quote from the article I was reading, it comes from someone who's probably more in touch with reality in the Middle East than Juan Cole:-

Jordan's King Abdullah put it best: "People are waking up. [Arab] leaders understand that they have to push reform forward, and I don't think there is any looking back."

    This fits in well with the about-face by Libya's Gadaffi, who renounced terrorism in the wake of the liberation of Iraq.

    It looks increasingly likely to me that President Bush, together with Tony Blair, John Howard, and others, will be feted by history as the leaders who turned things around in the Middle East by acting rather than daydreaming.
    I remember the socialist demonstrations in the streets when President Reagan was staring down the Soviet Empire. There were pictures portraying Reagan embracing Thatcher, a la 'Gone With The Wind', with the caption:- "She offered to follow him to the end of the Earth; he offered to arrange it." (Very funny, actually!  big_smile  )
    Reagan's show of strength, against all the caterwauling of the eternally pessimistic, hand-wringing, liberal-left, brought down the Soviets and ended the Cold War. And Reagan will be remembered for that forever.

    We could be seeing another American Presidential legend in the making. Stranger things have happened.

#416 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2005-02-08 06:58:18

Juan Cole:-

If people can't imagine that you can hate Saddam and also think a unilateral war and long-term occupation of an Arab country are bad ideas, that is their problem.

    I don't have such a problem. I don't have to imagine any such thing. I know real people who have made this mistake.


Shaun Barrett, about Bill:-

Well, maybe ...  but extraordinarily intelligent and sharp-thinking chopped liver!

    Hmmm. Nevertheless, still essentially chopped liver, I see!   big_smile

#417 Re: Life support systems » Backpacking on Mars - A base in a backpack... possible? » 2005-02-07 20:11:17

Don't underestimate the power of 5 psi.
    It translates into about 3.5 tonnes per square metre.

    A dome-shaped "pup-tent" will become more-or-less a sphere under those conditions, unless you have strengthening members to prevent it.

#418 Re: Life on Mars » Utah Microbes Point to Mars - Research into extremophiles » 2005-02-07 20:04:17

That "Wild Things" article serves to convince me even more, as though that were possible (! ), that life can, and more than likely does, exist on Mars.
    I could quote so much of that piece in support of my contention that Mars hosts life but it would be better if you just read it yourselves!
    Nice article, Cindy.  :up:


    Thanks, SpaceNut, for the "High Voltage Mars" article, too. It serves, once again, to underline the glaring inconsistency in NASA's approach to the Viking life-search results.

The lack of organics on Mars was first established by the Viking landers in 1976. The two landers conducted four experiments to try to detect life, and one of these experiments showed that the surface of Mars was entirely devoid of carbon compounds.

   
    This quote refers to the results of the Mass Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer (GCMS) experiment, which appeared to show that Martian soil is devoid of organic material, down to parts per billion levels.
    THE SAME GCMS INSTRUMENT, THOUGH, WAS LATER SHOWN TO BE INCAPABLE OF DETECTING ORGANIC COMPOUNDS IN ANTARCTIC SOILS KNOWN TO CONTAIN BREEDING COLONIES OF BACTERIA!  i.e. The results it sent back to Earth in 1976 were useless!

    Yet, the mantra goes on and on - even to this day - that Viking proved there was no organic material in the Martian soil. This now discredited GCMS data even forms one of the pillars of this article, and appears as part of its Summary in the first paragraph:-

Summary (Feb 07, 2005): Meteorites and comets should have delivered vast amounts of organic chemicals to Mars, yet the Viking mission found no organics in the red soil.

    I cannot believe this is happening and I don't understand why this BS is being allowed to continue!
    Why is nobody correcting this nonsense about the GCMS results?!!   :realllymad:
    Why are scientists like this Sushil Atreya (the researcher referred to in the article) still labouring under the burden of data known perfectly well by the whole scientific community to be inaccurate?!

    This is real Twilight Zone stuff.   yikes
    No wonder the Conspiracy Theory advocates are alive and well in La La Land - I can see their point of view!   :bars:

#419 Re: Life support systems » Backpacking on Mars - A base in a backpack... possible? » 2005-02-07 07:24:07

Are you guys sure you won't run into logistical problems here?  ???
    I did a bit of googling on the subject of scuba tanks, just to get an idea how much compressed air can be stored in them. A typical tank, 7.25" in diameter and 28.25" in height, pressurised to 3000 psi, can contain 107 cu.ft of air at Standard Temperature and Pressure (STP). Such a tank weighs 38 lbs empty. [Please excuse the Imperial units but the site I found uses them.]
    Using Boyle's Law (P1V1 = P2V2 and ignoring temperature differences for the sake of simplicity), that tank could hold enough pure oxygen to provide 315 cu.ft of atmosphere at 5 psi.

    That's about all you'd need to inflate a 'Mars-tent' some 7 x 7 x 6.5 ft, which would be a cosy but sufficient space for maybe 3 people.
    But you could only do it once, unless you could recover all the oxygen each morning. And I think this would be difficult because of consumption of O2 and the inevitable leakage.

    The tank itself would be bulky and awkward to carry but, on Mars, would weigh only 14.4 lbs. However, I think you may have to carry a small CO2 scrubber as well, considering you've got three people in such a small volume for maybe 8 hours or more.
    Toilet facilities would be primitive (bags and wet-ones) but, in a life-threatening situation, that would be a secondary consideration, I suppose. And I guess the Apollo astronauts got to know each other pretty well, too!
    Dividing up the Mars-tent hardware between the three hikers is an obvious solution to the problem of transporting it all, but it's potentially a problem in itself. If one of the hikers were to become separated from the other two by some mishap, it might be impossible to erect the tent because all the parts aren't there!   sad

    I think Kim Stanley Robinson got round some of these problems by transporting the camping gear on motorised hand-carts, if memory serves. It's not as sexy as backpacking but it may prove to be the minimum requirement for roughing it on Mars.
    Or am I being unduly pessimistic?   ???   smile

#420 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2005-02-07 04:31:23

Well, maybe ...  but extraordinarily intelligent and sharp-thinking chopped liver!   tongue  :laugh:

#421 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2005-02-06 18:48:57

Thanks Dickbill, for your latest post re. death rates in Iraq.
    I have read The Lancet report and I did see one or two analyses of it, at least one of which was written by someone with more expertise in statistics than I'll ever have(! ).
    I don't have access to those analyses right now, so anything I say about them will have to be based on memory - and treated with the appropriate caution by those of you who may have reservations about my honesty .. or, more to the point at my age, my memory!
    Here are the main points, as I recall them (and I've almost certainly missed a few):-

    1) Serious and credible doubts were cast on the accuracy of the pre-war death-rate figure used by The Lancet. And that pre-war death-rate estimate makes a large difference to the calculation of how many civilians died after the war began. The way small differences in that pre-war death-rate affect The Lancet's conclusions were set out in some detail and I remember finding the mathematics to be sound and persuasive.

    2) Doubts were cast also on the representative reliability of the places chosen for the data gathering - if you choose areas of intense violence for your death-rate data, and then extrapolate those data to the rest of the country, you get higher death-rates.

    3) The critics asked how it was possible to be sure that all the 'civilians' killed were really civilians, since the terrorists don't wear uniforms. Also, if a family which was part of the survey had lost one or two family members, who were in fact terrorists killed in the process of creating public mayhem, would they be likely to admit as much? Or would they claim the loss as the unjust killing of innocent family members by the Coalition?

    4) The critic who claimed some expertise in statistics and who drew attention to the error-range of 8,000-194,000 extra deaths, said that that kind of statistical margin for error indicated the report was too unreliable to be treated seriously. I'm certainly no expert on statistical analysis but I do know what those figures mean. They mean that the data gathered could only be trusted, with 95% confidence, to produce a total extra death-rate somewhere between 8,000 and 194,000. This means that the number of extra deaths attributable to the war might be 194,000. But, just as possible within the restraints of the survey, the figure might be 8,000.
    Picking a figure of 100,000, because it's close to the middle of this range, doesn't inspire any confidence in me at all because I understand it's a stab-in-the-dark. Any number within the range is possible.

    In conclusion, I'm not saying the figure of 100,000 is wrong. I can't say that because it's impossible to be sure. But what is undoubtedly wrong is the fact that the media picked up that demonstrably unreliable figure and ran with it - for the most part failing to indicate the gross statistical uncertainties associated with it.
    At best, this is appallingly sloppy journalism; at worst, it's one more attempt to marshal world opinion against the liberation of Iraq. And there's little doubt in my mind that it's a case of the latter rather than the former because I see it, day-in-day-out on T.V. and in my newspaper, as part of a bigger picture of left-leaning anti-Americanism (or simply tribal anti-Bushism) in much of the world media.


    Thanks, Bill and Dickbill, for the comments regarding history not being "black and white" and the impossibility of being sure what might have transpired, had certain factors in history been different.
    This is all true of history but sometimes, in the present, you just have to act on the basis of your best interpretation of the situation. Although I admit that one's 'best interpretation of the situation' can very often be much clearer later on, through one's 'retrospectoscope'!
                                                             big_smile

#422 Re: Not So Free Chat » A great gift for our children to worry about? » 2005-02-05 20:55:36

Despite my tendencies to the Right in politics, which I defend as pragmatism and realism, I am actually an environmentalist - though more along the lines of Bjorn Lomborg. I think we need to analyze the problems we face carefully before we jump to conclusions.
    Having said that, and being still very cautious about the extent and seriousness of global warming and its relationship to human involvement, I want cleaner technology .. now!
    I don't like burning fossil fuels, I don't feel comfortable raising atmospheric CO2 levels, I don't want the seas polluted, I think the human population should be 1 billion - not 6 billion.

    But, at the same time, I don't like science being cheapened by sensationalism. I don't like it when scientific speculation about possible future global warming, based on a best-guess involving hundreds of factors of which we have only the most primitive understanding, is bandied about as though it's fact.
    Temperatures are reported to have risen 0.7 deg.C in the last 100+ years and it looks likely the 30% rise in atmospheric CO2 since the Industrial Revolution has played a part in that.

    But would the world have cooled by a similar amount, over that same period, all of its own accord, if the CO2 levels hadn't risen? Could the descent from a relatively warm interglacial period into a full-blown ice-age be under way, as we speak? Might we, by the sheerest coincidence, be forestalling that ice-age with our CO2 production? Might that CO2 production, even though it rises over the next 50 years, be insufficient to offset the factors pushing us into a deep-freeze, and might temperatures begin to plummet by 2020?
    O.K.!  This is all speculative fantasy of the highest order and I don't know anybody who believes any part of it.
    But, in our present state of ignorance, nobody can rule it out, either. And this is my point.

    I object to the sheerest speculation about future scenarios involving global warming, even those based on much-vaunted computer simulations, being elevated to the status of scientific fact by the media and the public.
    I strongly suspect much of the hype is based on political bias and I'm sorry to say I suspect that taint has even coloured the objectivity of some of the scientists involved.

    I've read reports by seemingly reliable people, which allege the sky will fall unless the Kyoto Protocol is adopted by the United States immediately. The refusal to do so by America, and my own country, Australia, is seen as typical right-wing folly, fuelled by ignorance and greed.
    On the other hand, I've seen reports by equally respectable people, which indicate the Kyoto Protocol is an entirely inadequate document, whose implementation, or otherwise, will have a negligible effect on predicted climate change anyway.

    As CC has reminded us lately, Earth's climate is not stable; it's a natural system of enormous complexity and can change radically for reasons we still don't understand.
    Earth is unusually cold at present, with an ice cap at both Poles. An ice cap at just one Pole is unusual for our planet,  never mind two!  Antarctica, for example, has been largely ice-free for much of the last 150 million years.
    On a lesser time-scale, as has been pointed out in this thread, we've had warm spells and 'mini-ice-ages' (colloquially, that is) in just the last 2-3 thousand years. The northern Sahara desert was the granary of the Roman Empire 2 thousand years ago, it even supported Rome's greatest adversary, the mighty Carthaginian Empire; now it's barren and unproductive sand.
    The truth is, we don't actually know how much of the 0.7 deg.C rise in global average surface temperatures is directly attributable to human CO2 production, and how much of it might have occurred naturally anyway.

    I agree, though, that we ought to minimize our impact on the environment as quickly as we can, simply because of that same ignorance! It cuts both ways.
    But I'd like to see that balance introduced into the T.V. shows and the newspaper articles, instead of the monotonous diet of unfounded doomsday mantras we're getting at present.
                                                            ???

#423 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Deep Impact Crashing mission - Comet Tempel 1 target » 2005-02-05 18:56:29

Cindy:-

Maybe it's too early in the morning or my eyes need an examination.

    Well, maybe we're both too tired or too blind to see but I can't seem to locate the thing either!  big_smile

#424 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2005-02-04 20:18:41

Juan Cole:-

An elective war is always a mistake.

    Unless my memory is failing me, CC and I have already established beyond reasonable doubt, in discussions here months ago, that elective war is most certainly not "always a mistake"!
    One could argue that any war is always a terrible thing, not to be undertaken lightly; that would elicit very few negative responses from any quarter, I'm sure. But there must be very many cases in history which show conclusively that a military 'stitch-in-time' would have been the better option.
    As an example, and at the risk of rehashing the same argument to refute the same nonsense yet again, I invoke the history of Europe leading up to WWII. If the European powers had elected in unison to go to war with Hitler's Germany on any one of several occasions prior to 1939, the Second World War as we know it today would have been averted. In addition, the routing of Nazi Germany before its power grew too great would have resulted in the toppling of Hitler from power long before the instigation of the infamous death-camps which took so many innocent lives.

    I don't pretend to draw direct comparisons between the situation in Germany in the 1930s and the situation in Iraq recently. But the world is a complicated place, politically, and not amenable to analysis by the use of simplistic platitudes like "an elective war is always a mistake".
                                                        smile

   [P.S. If General Mattis actually said that about the "fun" in shooting people, then action should be taken against him. It would be bad enough for a Private to go on record with that kind of talk but a General is more than just a soldier, he carries some degree of political responsibility also.
    However, to use this as some kind of justification for his "elective war" statement, Cole stretches credulity well beyond breaking point. I think it's an emotionally-charged and transparently specious argument on his part, which most thinking people, I suspect, will have quite rightly dismissed out of hand.]
                                                 smile

#425 Re: Not So Free Chat » Political Potpourri II - Continued from previous » 2005-02-04 07:56:57

A preliminary report is out, I heard.
    Looks pretty damning for the U.N.  Annan's son was mentioned and the Deputy Secretary-General, too, if I'm not mistaken.
                                              ???

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