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Although I am unsure as to the utility of directing an asteroid or comet into colision with mars, if an appropriet target was located (which would require quite a search), re-directing it's orbit would be well within our capability. Since the orbit only has to be modified so that it intersects that of Mars at some time in the future, the Delta-V is required is supprisingly small. A couple of nuclear weapons detonate on the surface of the object would probably do the trick. The trouble is picking an appropriet target in the first place.
Asteriods and commets are way far out there, and the iceburgs of the kupiter belt are even further out. The exact composition of any individual asteriod is not extreamly well known, and it is realtivly hard to study them due to there distance.
But again, if you had a target in mind already, changing it's orbit should be realtivly easy. Put some sort of warhead deliver vehicle aboard a Delta and point it at your target. Idealy the delivery vehicle would have a radar that would be used to enable the vehicle to accurately determine the position of the asteriod and then light up a final stage for the close rendevous and detonate. Not that difficult at all. Indeed give the light weight and power of modern nuclear weapons (300kt weapons are under .5MT), I would even venture to guess that objects out in the kupiter belt might be movable, if you could find one you wanted.
Ronald Regan is dead, why oh WHY can't SDI rest with him? It's bad enough that George Bush went ahead with the ABM defense system which, despite being in theory "operational", failed another test recently. The last thing we need is the pentagon wasting more of our money on more brain dead space based weapon systems.
The cold war is over, it is highly unlikely that the US will ever face a serious threat from ICBM attacks again. And even if we did, the threat of MAD kept us safe during the greatest period of this threat, and will do so in the future. And on top of this I have little confidence that such a system will actualy work if called upon in the future. Certianly the tests performed so far do not bode well for it.
You might think it would be easier to get volitiles from Venus then asteriods, but you would be dead wrong. Venus has a gravity well nearly as dense as that of Earth, so if you were to stop there and pick up gasses you would have to fight that gravity on your way out. And on top of this Venus has got to be one of the most inhospitable locations in our solar system. It is closer to the sun increasing worries about radiation (both thermal and ionizing) and the planet itself is a veritable hell hole.
IMO the ideal location to get volitiles for the moon (if you want to go forward with this crazy plan) is right here on Earth. Our atmosphere and ocean has pleanty and a sufficently long elevator cable should be able to hurl them at the moon with little difficulty.
Without atmosphere and with 1/6 gravity tracking motors to move an inflatable mirror array could be quite tiny, right?
Exactly. In fact they may not be necessary at all, the rate of motion for the mirrors is quite small, somebody could probably just go out there and turn them manualy, perhaps with a big lever if the array was still to heavy.
Making electricity from an inexpensive solar furnace seems trickier than heating enclosed boxes with the objective being to extract oxygen.
Somewhat. It realy isn't that diffrent from most nuclear power plants in principle. Focused light it used as a heat source instead of uranium but otherwise the two are identical. Any of the power generating mechanisims used by a nuclear reactor could be used by a solar dynamic system. The big diffrence of course is that you can't use a solar dynamic system at night. But in locations with continual sunlight on the moon, solar dynamic systems meet and possible even beat nuclear power in w/kg and definetly in w/$$. Mirrors can be lighter than uranium and it's necessary containment and radiation protection and defiently are cheaper.
I've heard of Karov's idea before but heard of generating electricity from it, a great improvment. But also, once your pipe passes the LaGrange point you can also use it's velocity to add to your Delta-V, properly timed this system could at least augment the transportation of nitrogen to mars. At best no manufactured items would be needed at all. Freeze a ball of nitrogen then give it an insulating coating water ice, then wait for the proper time and hurl it on it's way. Of course the timing would have to be of nearly impossible precision and direct windows would probably be rare if they existed at all, and your cable would have to be very long, but hey every little bit helps right?
I think that Iron wouldnt' be the most valuable resource we could just "come across" that would probably be water. A good source of water is THE number one resource that needs to be located for a good base sight.
But as for stuff to bring to get your colony cracking, I agree with the recomondation of a DRI smelter, probably the most practical iorn smelting method avaliable. But an electric furnace will still be necessary to convert that product into usefull forms of steel. In reality mining and refining is a very comlex process which has many stages and needs a lot of heavy equipment. You'll need some way to convert the molten steel into usefull bars or plates for example.
I also think some sort of setup for doing electolysis will be necessary. Virtualy any metal you could possible want can be produced via electrolisis, in fact for most of them it is the only practical method of refining. A complex set of chemicals will be necessary however, and it is very energy intensive. But the setup could probably be converted for other processes such as plating and chemical milling.
On the mining side of things, besides some method of getting the ore, you are also going to needs a machine to grind it up and a system to filter for what you want, probably by flotation.
Proccessing the refined product is actualy probably the simplest parts. Compter controled lasers/millers/plamsa/water jets can cut virtualy any material into virtualy any shape you could desire. While not ideal for mass production the machines are realtivly compact and simple to operate.
But the more I study this issue the more problomatic it seems. The list of equipment you need to import and mineral resources you need to persue is seemling endless. I don't think 100's of MT is going to cut it, 1000 of tons of equipment will probably be required for even the begining of self sufficency. This makes getting the cost of getting equipment to the planet down vital.
I've been thinking, perhaps some sort of solar sail reusable transit vehicle could be used? The travel times to and from Mars would be great, but the system could be reused many times and doesn't require any exotic designs. Construction would also be realtivly simple, the entire vehicle could probably go up in a single HLLV, then you would just have to deliver the cargo modules to it.
Again I state, that one of the big achillies' heels of the solar option is that there will be mass penalties other then the mirrors themselves. You must nessesarrily have some kind of articulated physical support structure to aim the mirrors at the furnace as the sun moves accross the sky. Being that we will be in no position to build scaffholding or electric motors or wiring for a while out of Lunar material, then these structures would have to be imported.
I don't think you are properly taking the moons low gravity into account. Since it's gravity is only .16 G that 10MT mirror would only weigh about 1.6MT on the Moon, so the structure to support could be fairly lightweight. While it mass remains the same, which is important when you consider rotating moving/rotating it, this movment will occur very slowly, so the necessary motors would not have to be very power/large. In fact, haveing someone go out every 8 hours or so and manualy adjust the grid might be plausible. And of course, as the mirror mass decreases so will the mass of the necessary support equipment. All you are realy looking at is a hinge and a perhaps a small motor anyways, the mirrors are strong enough to support themselves in Earth gravity.
Speaking of which, everybody keeps singing the praises of this mountain that is bathed in sun most of the time. Just one little problem, that the Sun would stay low in the sky, and circle the horizon every month. How do you reflect its sunlight onto a fixed furnace if it percesses 360deg around the sky?
As for the problem of tracking the sun 360* around the sky, this is actualy a fairly simple problem. If for some reason it's not practical to have the primary track the sun and focus on your furnace (and I don't see why this would have to be the case, the geometry is certianly possible), you would just utilise a secoundary mirror to reflect the concentrated light onto the furnace. Such an arangment may be used in any case to alow the light to be concentrated more easily.
And the safety issue? Why on or above the Earth would a reactor be unsafe? As long as you put it in a crater or build a dirt berm around it, it would be perfectly safe. The link you cite even mentions that Brayton turbines have been simulated to operate for five years solid.
Now I do not think that nuclear reactors are OVERLY hazerdous, just that they are much more so than a solar dynamic system. One would not want to approach one of these space reactors to closely or linger nearby for to long as the will likely not have enough shielding. This creates a delima however as the furnace has to be fairly close for efficent heat transfer AND you are going to want to visit the processor to get your oxygen out of it. This has made me worry a little bit about Mar ISPP as well.
Not if the furnace was more of an add-on to the reactor. Being that it is a relativly simple thing (basically a kiln with air-tight doors and high-temp gas pump), and it would weigh alot less since it could produce LOX all month, so it would only have to be a fraction as big as the one-week solar/thermal one.
I'm unclear on this argument. The furnace as you say will be realtivly cheap and simple. The nuclear reactor however is neither. It's hard for me to imagine a situation where the reactor would be cheaper per thermal watt than a mirror would be. While the solar furnace would certianly have to be bigger, it is likely only to be a fraction of the weight of any generation system in anycase.
This brings in another point. The solar system could be utilised practicly forever with proper maintence. The nuclear system is going to have a definet shelf life, after which it would be useless. The system would have to be abandond or disassembled as the old reactor would remain a danger for years to come, with disposal in place being the most practical retirment option.
Moral of the story, if you use the thermal energy from a reactor, it scales extremely well since much of the reactor cores' mass isn't the Uranium fuel.
Not necessarily so. The SP-100 would get about 400W/kg of thermal energy. The 1kg/m^2 mirrors would get 1400W/kg of thermal juice, MUCH better. And as you scale up the amount of thermal (basicly total) energy produced with a nuclear reactor you also scale up the radiation dangers and possible scale back its effective lifetime.
Again, I disagree. The moons low gravity and lack of atmosphere make some truely large mirrors relativly easy to build/import and deploy. Currently optical spacetelescope quality mirrors are at about the 15kg/m^2 mark and decreasing rapidly with mirrors weighing as little as 1kg/m^2 on the horizon. No doubt the lower quality mirrors required for our purpouses could be built even lighter. However even at 15kg/m^2 the 700m^2 mirror you claim is necessary would mass about the same as the nuclear reactor, 10MT. While it would not produce electricity, it would probably be cheaper and certianly less hazerdous. If we could make our mirrors lighter (which is likely) they would have a clear advantage. So thermaly mirrors are at least even and probably superior to nuclear power on the moon.
Likewise thermal dynamic systems also look promissing on the moon. For our application (only in use during the day) advanced systems could possibly reach 40W/kg which is competative with nuclear reactors and superior to the one you specify (30W/kg). And again are safer and probably cheaper.
Now, I'm not against nuclear power by any means. I think a small nuclear reactor powering the needed systems during the long night is probably a necessity. But for power requirments that aren't necesarily need during the night such as oxygen production solar can be a real competitor on the moon. If you just look at plane thermal aqusition during the day, they are pretty much unbeatable, some 90W/kg with the heavy 15kg mirrors assumed! And if the base is located at the poles as some seem to think is likely constant daylight makes it even better.
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A good sight about some of this stuff. http://www.belmont.k12.ca.us/ralston/pr … es.html]Is here.
I hate to sound rude about all this, but some of this information is easily avaliable on the internet if you just take 3 secs. to look for it.
A quick search on google gave me results on my http://www.google.com/search?q=mars+sol … cial]first page.
The exact amount of solar radiation will very of course depending upon exactly how, when, and where you measure it, but for Mars a good value seems to be around 500 w/m^2. Roughly half that of earth.
The question about nuclear weapons is more complicated (you find your answer in 3 secounds with google), but still a good excersies for a high school student. Figure out the amount of energy your bomb is going to release, figure out the amount of energy necessary to convert CO2 ice into a gas, then simple algerbra will give your solution. And there you go, a rough "back of the envelope" solution.
In any case I agree with what most of the others have said here. A single nuclear weapon is going to be just a drop in a very large bucket here. You would have to employ them in mass to get any kind of real effect. It's important to rember that mars is infact REALY big, and the effect of any single weapon is realtivly small.
I think some of the concurns here are overblown however. A single nuke isn't going to throw out enough dust to seriously effect the amount of solar energy the planet recives. Especialy if it was detonate over the poles as you propose. I doubt one could even effect the global temperature and pressure in a measurable way at all. I will grant that dust loft and airtime are unknown for mars and probably much greater than that of earth, so if you did deploy alot of surface nukes... who knows.
Likewsie you are correct that the overal concurns about radiations are mild in comparision to the general hostility of the planet. You wouldn't want to stand at ground zero of course, but once it was over the horizon you would be fine. Fallout is also less of a concurn if you have to live in a enclosed life support system at least the 15 years or so it would be any kind of concurn. But again, if you were to start droping surface nukes on the kind of scale you would need to, well it might be another story.
In KSR mars trio, she talks about drilling deep wholes and setting of nukes in them to help melt the permafrost, this sound like to me like a much better idea to me, but even here it would have to be deployed on a very large scale to achive anything.
I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss mirrors as a heat source for various oxygen production operations. Remember that the Lunar day is nearly a month long, and the Moon recives about the same amount of sunlight we do, without an atmosphere to dilute it. A relativly small mirror could easily generate the the 1000*C temperatures necessary for most mineral reduction operations. The mirriors would have to be re-aligned perodicly, but given the length of the lunar day, this would only have to be every day or so. And while the system couldn't be used during the night and some fraction of the lunar day, liquid oxygen isn't THAT difficult to store and when we aren't launching rockets we wouldn't realy be using that much of it. So it would be realitivly easy to build up a stockpile when you do need it. In any case, a solar power source is bound to be MUCH less masive then a nuclear system and cheaper and safer to boot.
If we don't fix these structure issues before we could have space-based warfare and the best group wins the whole pot. (all the colonies, outposts and planetary bodies )
If I am being simple minded here, it's because the problem truely is not that complex. We won't have any war in space for the same reason the Russians never invaded West Germany. Such a conflict would quickly escalate to more widespread warfare, eventualy culminating with nuclear weapons and widspread destruction on both sides. If China (for example) decides to shoot down one of Frances space assets (landing craft or whatever), France isn't simply going to shrug their shoulders and ignore it, they would strike back at any Chinese targets they could reach in retaliation. The Chinese then strike back, and on and on it goes untill there is nothing left of France and China.
The thing is that both China and France know this is the likely outcome of events, and so don't do it. The risk of nuclear war is not worth the marginal gain of a monopoly in space. This kind of Brinkmanship is certianly scarry, but it is what has prevented nuclear war for some 50 years now, and will on into the future.
The advent of Nuclear Weapons under MAD only applies on earth, in order to use the same preventative methods in space doesn't work. Nuclear Weapons don't act the same in space as they do on earth.
No, MAD (Mutualy Assured Destruction) as a policy works on all fronts. As I pointed out before, France isn't going to treat an attack on one of it's space colonies any diffrently then it would an attack on one of it's colonies still here on Earth (I think they still have a couple), or an attack on it's homeland itself. For quite some time the US and NATO were hoplessly outmatched in Europe, but with the bomb to back them up, the Russians never invaded because of the danger of escalating to a nuclear war which would mean MAD, where nobody wins.
Also automated defensive platforms could be used to protect the access to the Mars colonies and the moons of Mars could be used as longer range weapons platforms.
Man and I though "Star Wars" and the SSI (Strategic Space Inative) was a form of stupidity that Regan had only inflicted the US with. Such a system is impractical and extreamly expensive here on Earth. Building one all the way out on Mars is even MORE impractical and would be so hidoulsy expensensive as to be completely impossible.
That is why the United States has space command and military strategists diversing strategies to command threats from and within orbit space and beyond. Every other country would have the same type of command structure or department.
Currently our "space command" sits back at Cheyenne mountain keeping an eye out for a nuclear attack which hopefully will never come. If one does, there only response is to launch a retalitory strike of there own. Thats it. The US doesn't have any means of enforcing anykind of stragic control of space. Indeed, the Russians were the last ones with ANY kind of space arsenal, all of which have left service a long time ago, and probably wouldn't have worked that well in the first place.
I am not saying this would happen but that is why it would be better to have all participants for inter-planetary voyages must go under one framework controlled through regulations across the world. ( for beyond the earth-moon territory space ) This would remove the issues occurring in the first place and also bold the various teams and governments for humanity.
I'm all for a joint effort. I'm just saying we should follow the "golden rule" he who pays the gold, makes the rules. I wouldn't be very happy if the US had to put up all the dough for a mission, but someone else got to call the shots.
The limited resources will keep increaing in price and reduce in volume for earth-based resources and the resources in space will evaluation become less expensive and more accessible, and that is what i was meaning the governments then will want those resources for their people in space on colonies and for earth based people.
This point (if in fact we ever do reach it), is a long ways off. Developement of Mars or anyother extra-terrestial body is going to take 50+ years, no matter what. For some of the stuff you talk about (meaningfull colonies, Space defense platforms considerbly longer than that).
here's no air in space, for one. When a nuclear bomb explodes, it superheats the air, which spreads out and burns things. I imagine that in space a nuclear bomb would unleash mounds of radiation, which you probably wouldn't want bouncing into you, but I don't think there would be much else besides a bright flash of light. I'm not sure what would happen to the bomb casing itself.. Would it simply remain intact? What force would exist to break it apart? Oh yeah, and if the bomb casing remained intact, I guess you wouldn't see any light after all...
What!?! When a nuclear bomb explodes intense radiation is emmited in all directions. The bomb caseing (if it somehow survived the conventional explosions that triggered the bomb), would most certianly be vaporised in the blast. The amount and kind of radiation (which is ALOT and mainly thermal) does not change wherever a bomb is exploded. Actualy heat (being the increased motion of atoms) is not actualy produced by the reaction (only EM and neutron radiation is), but is rather a result of the intense radiation coming into contact with some matter. The casing (beign at ground zero) is going to absourb alot). Without air to absourb the radiation, the effects would propigated inverse square law, and damage could probably be expected at great distances. Heck, even if the casing somehow did survive, so much radiation is released in the visible spectrum, you could probably see it THROUGH the casing.
with today'ds issues globally for resources and the ever increasing needs will force governments to make harder decisions on the lifestyle for their people.
I won't disagree with this point, but I do not belive that it supports your asertation that Mars will eventualy become some sort of strategic battleground in the future. With the advent of nuclear weapons and MAD those "hard decisions" pretty much exclude hostile options.
This is the main reason for going after the resources in space not the costs for those resources but the quality and quantity of resources on these bodies.
This point is self contradictory. The cost of accesing resources is intresicly linked to their quality and quantity. If it costs more to get to them then they are worth, then the resources are worthless. And this will doubtless be the case on Mars for a long time to come.
I have to disagree with Martin_Tristar here, your line of reasoning simply doesn't make sense. For at least the next 50 years, and quite possibly for much longer than that, Mars is going to be of no more strategic resource than Antartica, and substantialy harder to get to at that. Honestly, the planet is millions of miles away and has as much surface area as Earth. It is of little importance if the US, UN, Russia, China, France, Japan, or any other country "claims" it as there own. It's not like they will able to enforce a claim on the entire planet or that Mars is going to run out of room anytime soon.
What RobS says makes more sense. He who pays the bills will make the major decisions with the locals having a great deal of autonomy. Making it a bone of geo-poltical contention simply doesn't make sense. It's not a strategic military outpost by anymeans, and it won't be of signifigant economic utility for a long time to come. Certianly much great science will come from it, but that has always been freely shared.
As for the theory of the US (or some other Mars coloniser) using there "critical" mass to hinder other groups from developing mars, this is absurd. As I pointed out before Mar's distance makes developing that so called "critical mass" a event that will happen in the distant future. And even then, the shear vastness of space and mars makes any attempt to monopolise it's resources futile. What are they going to do, shoot down the landing crafts? Invade your colony with tanks and inflantry? Impractical if not clearly impossible. And clearly any nation that can send a mission to mars can also develope nuclear weapons and delivery systems along with the MAD deterent that implies to hostile options.
The will definitley need to be some sort of paved area out side the airlock that can be blasted down daily. Cleaning outside before entering an airlock that is being kept at positive pressure should cut down on the amount of dust getting in the qirlock significantly right?
I'm not sure if needs to be "paved" but you are right finding somemethod of dust managment is likely to be key. In a diffrent topic we briefly talked about some sort of CO2 "air curtian" being utilised to help create a dust free zone where the dust can more easily be removed via air-pick or something. Something on a larger scale will probably eventualy be necessary to help facilitate vehicle maintence.
Could a mesh tire have ...thin plutonium wire?... woven through it or small amounts of something warm alloyed with it? Plutonium pellets keep the rovers happy...
While I am actualy all in favor of using radiactive elements as heat sources, plutonium wire is a little bit of over kill. If rubber tires need to be heated, electrical current will probably be sufficent.
I think Mark Friedenbach had a great point, Exhaustion is a very major danger. Rember that the the astronauts are probably going to be on a 100% oxygen atmosphere during EVAs at a lower air-pressure then is typical her on Earth. They and very dependant upon the suit to remove CO2, provide oxygen, and remove excess heat. Even though mars is very cold, it's thin atmosphere is probably a very good insulator. There have been several near disasters during EVA for just this reason.
I would also point out that even with the lessend gravity a body in motion still has inertia, which is likely to be even greater on Mars, due to the additional mass of the spacesuit. In the event of an accident, even if the suit does not rip, their is still the dager of broken bones, and other damage to possible delicate spacesuit equipment, like the LSS and comunication systems.
Well the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) is positioned at the Sun-Earth L1 (bettwen Earth and the Sun), and the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe is at Sun-Earth L2 (beyond the Earth and Sun). So putting someting in a LaGrange orbit is certianly possible. However, since the L1, L2, and L3 points are unstable some (moderate) stationkeeping is necessary. The Sun-Earth L2 point would be a great place to put a telescope since neither the Earth or the Moon would ever block your view, however it would take a bit of delta V to get there, since it is out beyond the orbit of the moon.
I'm not as sure about the utility of Earth-Moon LaGrange points. As far as I know, no satilite has ever utilised one.
I don't think Orion drive are totaly useless for space travel, but the range of its application will certianly be limited.
First off, neither is going to be lifting people off of the planet. Railguns cannot practicaly do it. And while Orion might be able to, one must be realistic, the enviromentalist are never going to let it happen, end of story. I also tend to agree with GCN's assement that it would be economicaly impractical.
Even travel within our system is difficult. Orions push plate and shock absorption system are very massive and so assembly of such a vehicle is fairly difficult. Also if launching from Earth oribt, there may be EMP effects to consider as well. But for voyages to the outer system, it does have it's advantagtes, high thrust, high specific impulse, and a realitivly simple system.
But where an orion type system realy comes into it's own IMO is in moving asteriods. I'm not 100% convinced that moving the entire asteriod is more practical than just moving the end product. But if that is what you want to do then an orion type system is definelty the way to do it. Big NTR, Railguns, Ion Drives, ect are all far more complex and massive then an orion type system, and offer little advantage in terms of thrust and ISP. Indeed, you may be able to do without a pusher plate and shock absorption system at all using the asteriod itself for that role. In that case all you would have to deliver would be a well protected system for delivering the nuclear weapons. Perhaps you land a well armoured shack on one end of the asteriod and deploy the nuclear weapons via a small rocket/probe. In any case the system would be simple and effective.
But for interstellar travel I think Orion will probably be quite useless, it simply does not deliver enough ISP. And the number of nuclear weapons you would have to build would very large, there may not be enough nuclear material.
My concurn about "shrink wrap suits" is there long term durability. Getting in and out of them has got to apply alot of stress to the fabric. There increased flexibility also means more stress is applied. Applying internal pressure to the body also obviously involves stress to the fabric. I worry that all this stress will lead to a shorter life span for the suit. Or worse yet, for it to fail at a critical moment.
As for the human waste issues. I know it is gross, but you can always hook up a cather and what not. Not plesant, but better then urinating in your suit I imagine. As a bonus you get to collect the waste for later recyling.
I agree. The Lunar environment is sufficently different from Mars that it isn't a good investment at all, and both Lunar and Martian environments are sufficently similar to what can be mimiced on Earth that it makes little sense to not test things here.
Low-pressure CO2 greenhouses? Easy.
See if plants are killed by solar flares? Proton accelerators are probobly cheaper.
Testing space suits? Easy, just don't make the testers wear the backpack, hook it up to hoses.
Testing ISRU equipment? blow some dust into the vacuum chaimber with the machine.
Testing rovers? Run them around a hanger with a crane that lifts up on them to partially negate gravity.
Testing HAB LSS systems and fuel tankage? What has gravity got to do with that?
Engines? Largely gravity-agnostic too.
The list goes on. Antarctica or Sibera or whatnot would work pretty well for psychological training too.
The only reason to go back to the Moon is to go back to the Moon.
No, no, none of this is sufficent testing. You must test things in the way you intend to use them, or there realy isn't much point to it. If you are going to use your spacesuits, for example, hundreads of times with minimial time for servicing and repair then that is how you should test them, not with hoses replacing their life support packs. Or if you are going to use your Rovers for multiple hundread km then this how you should test it, not just drive it around with a crane. If you are not simulating the enviroment in which an accident might occur, what is the point?
The other point is that to realy have effective testing you have to test all your systems in concert. A failure in one system may not lead to disaster but it may cause another system to fail in unexpected ways. You also have to develop systems for dealing with accidents when they do happen, and the place to do this is not on Mars.
And again, its not as if there is nothing to do on the moon. There are lots of things we still have to learn about the planet. And this knowledge will be usefull in our later exploration/development of the solar system/universe. There are several other large stoney planetoids in the solar system, but the moon is a heck of a lot easier to access.
While I agree that that you do not HAVE to go to the moon to go to mars, I am starting to think that there very may well be some good reasons to go back to the moon first. I think the concept of a Lunar "Dry Run" or "Shakedown." May very well have some value to it. This was very much the approach during the Apollo/Gemini mission. Testing all mission critical systems in every possible way before actualy using them. The tested docking, spacewalks, lunar orbit and return, and virtual every other aspect of the mission before the ever attempted the landing.
Now for our Mars missions we have some advantages and disadvantages that the moon mission did not have. We have FAR less new equipment and techniques to develope. To go to the moon we learn/develope virtualy everything we now know about space travel. For mars there is alot less to learn/develop. The disadvantage is that these new things are all fairly difficult to test/develope safely. Mars is such a long ways away from Earth, any accident on the way there would spell disaster. If Apollo 13 had happened on the way to mars, the crew would all be dead.
Hence the value of using a new set of Moon missions to test, shakedown, burn-in whatever you you want to call it, the new systems before using them on the real deal. I'm especially concurned about the LSS systems. These are of critical importance, and yet we have never built such a system that has to exists in such harsh conditions for such long periods without resupply. And such a system would be difficult to effectivly test on Earth. The moon however simulates most of the extream enviromental effects of space and is a safer location for an abort should that become necessary. The moon is also an okay location for testing such things as the new space-suits, rovers, reactors, and what not. If anything it overtests them as the pressure and thermal issues are more intense on the moon then on Mars.
I would also point out that there are still alot of things left to learn about the Moon. And taking the investigative techniques we are going to be using on Mars there will benifit not only our knowelge of the moon, but will perhaps refine and make these techniques more usefull on Mars. Exterrestrial geology is still an unknown field, and that of the moon may well hold some important secrets for Mars as well.
Also so much of the mission hardware can be the same, going to the moon as well as mars makes more economic sense. Since the cost of development remains roughly the same, using the same hardware on multiple targets is more efficent. You get more science for your development buck.
Lastly I would point out that this, more concervative approach, is much more appealing to politicians and the public alike. The thought of risking billions on a Mars mission scares them, and they are more comforted by spreading/lessining that risk by spreading it our over the moon and mars. In any case it what they are most likely to vote to pay for, so we might as well get used to it.
I know there are terrestrial reactors which use liquid metal (usually sodium) yet have good-excelent effeciency. But they require a secoundary cooling loop, which adds to the mass of the system.
A well designed superbooster might be something somewhat akin to the Saturn or Energia series of rockets. That is, it would have various different configuartions for launching diffrent masses of cargos.
Another point in favor of multiple launches, Kennedy Space Center already has most of the necessary facilties, although some of them are in disrepair.
While I agree that a bigger booster is probably the solution, I don't see "orbit assembly" as you call it as realy being a showstoper. This isn't realy orbital assembly, it's just orbital docking, something the US and the Russians have LOTS of experience doing, dating all the way back to the Geminin missions.
I think you are underestimating the necessary size of said minning equipment. Even given possible much better ore densities on an asteriod the amount of rock you have to mine and process is huge. Using your numbers of ~27g/MT, which is a couple times greater than terrestrial ore densities, you mine and process over 32,000MT of rock to get one MT of the refined ore. Assuming typical densities of hard rock (3000kg/m^3) thats over 10,000m^3 of rock to move. Terrestrial mines are BIG things, and they use big and heavy equipment, and employ LOTS of people. And not only that, at (I suppose) 20MT a year, you are talking about an absolutly GIGANTIC mine, one of the biggest platnium mines ever. Terrestrial mines of this size employ thousands of people. A small space station is not going to cut it. You are going to need some serious equipment out there.
Don't assume it would actually cost that much. Industry does not pay the sort of prices NASA does. NASA pays for everything with laboratory or research scale prices. Check the price of a laboratory vacuum pump vs. an industrial vacuum pump. The laboratory model costs 10 to 100 times as much. Now apply laboratory scale prices to something as large as the Space Shuttle or Space Station and you understand why NASA's budget is so high. Asteroid mining would start with the carbonyl process to concentrate around 750,000 tonnes of ore per year, but do so very efficiently using sunlight for energy. Concentrate would be 1.5% of that mass or 11,250 tonnes per year. The equipment to do everything would cost billions, but at industrial prices it would cost significantly less than ISS. That means tens of billions, but much less than 100 billion; no where near trillions.
I don't disagree with this, but I think there are some important parts you have left out the equation, namely development, infastructure, and transportantion costs. Currently no one uses the carbonly process to refine platnium, much less doing it in an exterrestial enviroment (be it mars/moon/asteriod), so you would have to pay the costs to develope the equipment as well. Likewise, you have to develope tools and techniques for minning this stuff in an exterrestial enviroment. This will probably prove to be quite difficult, as all terrestial methods are either labor intensive (shaft minning) or requires very large quantities of explosives and equipment (pit minning) and both may prove hard to impossible to use off of earth.
Earth also has the advantage of a developed infastructure to rely upon. A terrestial mining company doesn't have to pay the for the powerplants, roads, water facilties, ect... it needs to use, those resources are already developed here on earth. An off planet facility has to pay for all those and more, including housing and lifesupport for it's workers. And the company will probably have to develope some sort of system for delivering the metal back to Earth as well.
But most importantly of all, is the cost to transport all this equipment to your destination. Minning equipment is heavy, as is the equipment to refine it. Launch costs being what they are, and given the small fraction of that payload that is actualy deliverable to your destination, I think the cost for transporting you machinery may quickly overwelm the cost of the machinery itself.
Given all these factors, I don't think investment costs in the trillions of dollars is out of line.