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So, as far as NASA and the USA is concerned, are we back to procrastinating until the technology improves (and becomes much cheaper) or until someone like China starts looking like a serious rival?
Either way, like GOM, I wonder whether that attitude will take us well into the middle of this century before anything happens!
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Surely the ISS has small thrusters which should have no trouble compensating for unwanted rotations?!
What's more worrying is the fact that cost over-runs mean there'll only be 3 crew members on the station at any one time. This is enough to run the station's systems, but not enough to conduct scientific experiments such as Translife!
I assume Dr. Zubrin is working on this possible dilemma?
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If this information has already been mentioned in another forum, I apologise!
But have you all seen the news about the discovery of a major lake basin to the south of Gusev crater?!
Gusev is at about 15 deg. S. and 187 deg. W. and lies at the lower end of Ma'adim Vallis.
The lake basin contained 5 times more water than the Great Lakes of North America and they have found the ancient shoreline!
At its northern end, the paleolake flowed over a ridge which acted as a natural weir. Eventually, the ridge eroded and flow rates increased. This led to ever faster erosion and the final catastrophic collapse of the ridge. The Ma'adim Vallis, which is a larger feature than the Grand Canyon, was gouged out by billions of tons of water flowing north out of the 2240 kilometre-long lake towards Gusev crater!!
Exciting enough though this may be, what interests me is the fact that the surface of the lake appears to have been about 1.5 kilometres above datum. And yet, water was flowing out of it over the natural weir formed by the ridge! Scientists have deduced from this that Mars must have been even warmer and wetter than they had guessed. And I suppose the atmosphere must have been quite dense even at some considerable altitude.
This is all very welcome news for those of us interested in terraforming Mars, since the more water we have to work with, the easier the task will be. And this seems to indicate that Mars once had simply huge quantities of water! Although much may have been lost to space, it's looking more and more as though there's probably still enough there to fill that northern ocean Kim Stanley Robinson described so vividly!
Anyone for a dip?!!
If all the pictures we've seen of the rock-strewn plains on Mars are anything to go by, it's hard to imagine a wheeled vehicle getting very far unless its wheels are flexible and about 5 metres in diameter!!
Just returning to the "back-packs" briefly. I believe they were commissioned by the U.S. Army in an attempt to produce a highly mobile arm of the infantry.
Two drawbacks disillusioned the military. The first was that the fuel which could be realistically carried allowed only 3 minutes of flight. The second was that a soldier flying one of these things was a 'sitting duck' and could easily be shot by enemy ground troops as he flew over!
We assume that on Mars nobody will be shooting at us! But remember we'll already be dressed in bulky pressure suits before we get down to strapping on a 'rocket-pack'. Sounds a bit awkward to me!
But maybe something more akin to the 'flying bedstead' used in training by the Apollo astronauts would be more practicable. In any event, you'd have to head for home when your fuel gauge registered half-full because of the lack of convenient gas stations on Mars!
Just a further brief comment regarding peroxides in the Martian soil. The concept of such oxides and superoxides was hypothesised to explain the results of the life-detection experiments on the Viking craft. More specifically to explain the apparent lack of organic molecules indicated by the Gas Chromatograph Mass Spectrometer results. Since then, more than two decades of painstaking research by Dr. Gil Levin (who devised and ran the Labelled Release experiment) has discredited the accuracy of the GCMS. The scientific community has, for reasons I am unable to fathom, studiously ignored Dr. Levin's work and still clings to the now untenable idea that the soil of Mars is full of peroxides and therefore self-sterilising.
In view of Dr. Levin's work and the fact of vast quantities of water ice just below much of the planet's surface, I'd be prepared to bet that there are no peroxides or unstable superoxides in the regolith at all. I think much of the regolith is not only amenable to life but, in accordance with Dr. Levin's interpretation of the results of his own LR experiment conducted on Mars by Viking, will be found to be teeming with bacteria and other microorganisms.
If anybody out there wants to call me a nut, go ahead! But read about Dr. Levin's work first. It's fascinating stuff!
I hate to rain on parades but the prospect of launching anything from Earth on a rail-gun is a forlorn hope.
I think the power required to accelerate tons of stuff at 100g would be very large, even in a vacuum. In Earth's atmosphere, the drag would make it much harder to do.
The velocity you need for LEO is 7.88 kms/s. To reach that velocity at an acceleration of 100g takes just over 8 seconds. But, in 8 seconds, your payload will have covered 31.6 kms!! So you'll need a rail that long!
Even if you enclose the rail in an evacuated tube to eliminate friction with the air during acceleration, the payload must hit the atmosphere when it emerges. This will be like hitting a wall and will probably destroy the capsule. Even if it doesn't, massive drag will dramatically slow the capsule and heat it to incandescence! Far from achieving orbit, it will describe a fiery arc in the sky as it plummets to the ground.
Sorry. But we'll have to forget about rail-guns on this planet. I love the idea but it just ain't gonna work!!
I don't think we rely on compasses as much as we used to for navigation because Global Positioning System satellites have largely taken over.
As Bill points out, on Mars we don't have such a system ... yet. And we can't use magnetic compasses either because of the lack of a planet-wide field.
But even though we can put a GPS system in place and solve the navigation problem for us and our machines, that doesn't answer the question about the effect on Earth-evolved animals of living without a global magnetic field. I read somewhere that during polarity reversals on Earth (which occur every few million years), when for a brief period there is no clear north or south, the animal extinction rate appears to increase. Whether this may be due to animals being unable to navigate to breeding grounds or to "fly south for winter", or whether it is due to the solar wind being able to reach Earth's surface in the absence of our protective field, thus increasing radiation-induced mutations, is unclear.
God knows what might happen on Mars! Maybe ecological chaos ... or maybe life will quickly adapt and find alternative means of navigation. We won't know until we get there, I suppose.
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Bill writes about a possible ESA/Russian combined Mars mission, without the US, as a kind of protest.
Regardless of the reason or the provocation for such an alliance, I can visualise such a thing coming to pass. I have high hopes that Europe might emerge as a significant player in Mars exploration over the next decade. And I am heartened by Russian optimism that very near-term missions are quite possible. Certainly, the Russians have the hardware to get decent payloads into orbit, and the Europeans have the combined GDP to bankroll the whole thing as well as the smarts to contribute know-how. The "Beagle 2" probe next year should give the Europeans some valuable experience in the field and, if successful, whet their appetites for more!
In addition, the Japanese seem keen to test their mettle in the human space flight arena, and China is making all sorts of assertions about its future on the Moon and even Mars.
It's almost as if the rest of the world senses that America is withdrawing from its position as leader in space exploration in favour of maintaining military supremacy and protecting its homeland.
This kind of abdication of leadership is common in history and I think stems from human nature. Audacity is a characteristic of youth. But, as an individual accumulates possessions, s/he tends to think more of protecting what s/he's got than going out and seeking new challenges. No nation in history has ever had as much material wealth to lose as the United States, so maybe she is just doing what comes naturally and easing into a conservative middle-age! ... Preferring to take out more insurance rather than take more risks.
Do I sense the passing of the baton here? Maybe TMS and other space advocacy groups are flogging a dead horse in attempting to get America interested in Mars expeditions. Maybe the bigger picture is right in front of us and we're not seeing it. The tide may already have turned.
Just as Bill mooted, the stars and stripes may flutter in the thin Martian wind, but will they be the stars of the European Union and the stripes of the Russian Federation?!
Oh yehhh! Of course. Simple really. Thanksalot Tom!!
Hi Cindy!
I can't remember actual figures for the Martian magnetic fields ... yes, FIELDS! There are lots of areas with apparently "fossilised" remnant magnetic fields of various strengths and orientations. These are supposed to be left over from earlier times when Mars generated a more Earth-like and, presumably, more uniform and encompassing magnetic field. One of the magnetic charts I saw for Mars showed bands of alternating north/south polarity frozen into the crust either side of a central line or fault. This was so much like the effect you get here on Earth on either side of the join in two tectonic plates (such as the mid-atlantic ridge) that it caused both excitement and much puzzlement! We hadn't thought of Mars as having plate tectonics at all, but maybe at the beginning there was a brief period when the crust was active and mobile. Who knows!
In general, though, the fields on Mars are weak and very regional. But in some areas, they are strong enough to shield the atmosphere from the erosion caused by the solar wind, which is called "sputtering"
It seems to me that the magnetic field(s) on Mars would be inadequate, not to say totally confusing, for life-forms trying to use it (or them) for navigation etc. The core of the planet is apparently not generating a significant field any more. All we have left are the scraps!
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I have long been a highly enthusiastic fan of balloons on Mars. I can't remember how long it's been since I was supporting The Planetary Society's Mars Balloon Project ... not just vocally and spiritually, but financially as well. I love the idea of it! (I've still got the T-shirt somewhere! )
Even though the German Mars Society's balloon, like TPS's before it, is not strictly a dirigible in that it cannot be steered in a desired direction, I'm sure it would still return marvellous images. Such images would go a very long way toward impressing on the public that Mars is A REAL PLACE!! ... Somewhere interesting we can go and explore.
One question. How will TMS in Germany get Archimedes to Mars?
I know where Byron is coming from. I live 16 degrees off the equator and summer here gets pretty sticky!
I have no quarrel with his 280 deg.K planetary average just as long as the northern ocean doesn't freeze over. The problem which bothers me is the high albedo of ice. If you allow too much of the ocean to freeze white, you start losing a lot of insolation through reflection off the ice ... which leads to lower temperatures ... which leads to more ice .... !! A runaway refrigeration effect. As I've recently mentioned elsewhere, this effect, even here on Earth, worries me more than the possibility of global warming.
Byron is probably right. We'll most likely have to use mirrors to artificially elevate the north polar temperature. Otherwise, as he suggests, we may have to swap cold deserts for hot deserts at the equator and over large areas of the southern hemisphere.
Just to throw another curve-ball into the argument, I have another little problem I like to try and ignore! Mars has no overall, uniform, magnetic field. I'm no zoologist but I know that many species here on Earth rely on a strong steady magnetic field in order to function properly (or at all! ). What if far more species than we realise have to have such a field in order to live?! What if almost all Earth life gradually falters and dies without that field? Unlikely, I suppose. But it's an idea which has obviously never been tested, apart from a few humans who managed to remain functional on the Moon for a few days. On Mars, at the very least, you can forget about racing your homing pigeons ... they won't know north from south from a hole in the wall! But it could be much more serious than that. Who knows?!
No tides, no homing pigeons ... maybe no viable life at all! Can anybody out there cheer me up??!!
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I suppose this isn't the site to discuss global warming, but since it's been brought up ...
I think that if CO2 keeps increasing indefinitely in our atmosphere, then temperatures will rise. But future energy production may not involve fossil-fuel burning for much longer. There are any number of ingenious innovations which will undoubtedly be used to give us cheap and plentiful energy.
As for current global warming, I honestly don't believe there is any. Last year I read about a weather satellite equipped with heat sensing technology capable of determining the temperature of Earth's surface. Theoreticians had calculated that the average temperature of the night time hemisphere of our planet should be different at full Moon than at new Moon by 1/200 of a degree C. (due to reflected solar heat from the Moon's surface). The weather satellite I mentioned was used to test this prediction and, sure enough, it detected a temperature difference of exactly 1/200 of a degree. A tribute to the accuracy of the satellite's remote thermometer.
That satellite had been in orbit for over fifteen years when this experiment was done, measuring temperatures all over the planet.
In all that time, despite its proven accuracy, its data has shown absolutely no change in Earth's average temperature!!
Most of the cities on Earth that keep temperature records, do so with thermometers set up in little meteorology boxes. These boxes, or stations, were originally set up on the outskirts of town, away from the roads and buildings which might have affected the accuracy of the data collected. Today, it has been found, most of these stations are still where they were put maybe decades ago. The trouble is, the cities have grown all around them. In fact, one of these stations was found next to the tarmac of a large airport!
It's small wonder that meteorological data is showing that average temperatures are rising when the thermometers are being surrounded by hot buildings and traffic! But the fact of the matter, from more accurate satellite measurements, is that from 1985 to 2000, Earth's average temperature never varied!
Earth has been subjected to sudden injections of staggering amounts of CO2 many many times in its history from mind-boggling volcanic eruptions. Sure, the climate warmed dramatically and sea-levels rose. There have been just as many episodes of extreme ice-ages, some of which are believed to have frozen the oceans as far as the tropics or even closer to the equator!
But did Earth become another Venus or freeze over completely and permanently? No. Despite a severity in climate changes that we as a species will never be capable of reproducing, Earth's complex repertoire of checks and balances brought the planet back to its temperate norm.
We greatly overestimate ourselves. Compared to mother nature, we are still a puny force.
And did you know we are well overdue for the next ice-age?
This interglacial period has run its course and new evidence suggests that when an interglacial ends, the temperature drop is precipitous. You can go from a balmy interglacial to a full scale ice-age in less than a human lifetime!!
I am personally unconcerned about "global warming". I think the next ice-age is a much bigger worry. In fact, in a few decades, the catch-cry may become: "Burn more fossil fuels! We need more CO2 ... the glaciers are coming, the glaciers are coming!!!"
This whole humans-to-Venus thing has so many huge problems that I just can't imagine it being attempted for a long time.
The pressure at the surface on Venus is 90 atmospheres, or thereabouts. That's equal to the pressure at a depth of 900 metres in one of our oceans, or 2,950 feet! Just over twenty years ago, a guy called Phil Nuytten, probably THE expert on deep-sea diving, produced a 1000 ft rated hard suit. This suit keeps its wearer in a 1 atmosphere environment down to a depth of a thousand feet and yet, through the use of rotary joints, allows a degree of mobility and dexterity. I believe that this is still the current state-of-the-art deep sea diving suit.
The pressure on Venus is very nearly THREE TIMES the pressure that our best suits can handle! We haven't dealt with the temperature problem at all yet, and already we're in trouble. When you factor in the 470 deg.C day and night temperature and the light drizzle of concentrated sulphuric acid, it becomes obvious (at least to me) that Venus is a no-go area! Our technology doesn't even come close to matching the challenges of an expedition to Venus.
And the next problem is almost certainly the real show-stopper: Why go there?! I have faith that, given time and sufficient incentive, human ingenuity would overcome even the horrors of a brief vacation on Venus! But what for? I know the quest for knowledge for its own sake is a noble enterprise but, in this case, we could gain so much more knowledge elsewhere for the same investment of resources.
Venus is a lost cause for the moment. Let's concentrate on Mars.
Hi BGD!
I don't think we know enough about the Martian regolith and the amounts of chemicals in it to really get a handle on what would happen if you swamped it with water.
But your point is well taken. It may take a long time for the chemistry of a new Martian ocean to settle down and, in the early stages, the pH may fluctuate wildly. I don't know. And I don't think anyone else really does either.
I have expressed concern in another post about how any Oceanus Borealis, being centred on the north pole, would be prone to freezing. Cindy raises this fear again, and rightly so. It could be a major problem unless we keep the average temperature on Mars close to 293K, which is warmer than Earth's average of about 288K.
Phobos brings up the subject of tides. This is a potentially very significant difference between Earth and Mars as far as ocean life goes. I tend to ignore it and hope it will go away! But the long-term consequences of not having tides could conceivably be critical to the survival of a marine ecosystem. Does anyone have any educated input on this subject? Adrian! ... You're a biologist. Any ideas on this one?
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If your rail is long enough, then you can keep the acceleration within tolerable limits for humans. But how long is long enough? That depends ... !
If you need to send people to Earth from the surface of Mars, you need a final velocity of 5000m/s (Martian escape velocity). Let's assume that an average human can tolerate a 5g acceleration for a limited time. At 5g acceleration, it's going to take 100 seconds to reach 5kms/s. So far, so good.
But, to accelerate at 5g for 100 seconds, your rail needs to be a whopping 250kms long!
Even if you only want to transport people from the surface to LMO (low Mars orbit), you will need a final velocity of about 4000m/s. At 5g acceleration (this time for 80 seconds), your rail still needs to be 160kms long!
And I'm not sure how many people could cope with 5g acceleration for 80 seconds. Is this tolerable for most humans?
My biggest concern is atmospheric drag and heating. Even up on the higher slopes of Olympus Mons, I believe the atmospheric pressure is still 1 or 2 millibars. This doesn't sound like much but, at a velocity of 4 or 5 kilometres per second, I think it would produce significant problems.
Atmospheric drag will probably be the show-stopper for any kind of rail-gun launching system on Mars, even for LMO-bound cargo which can be accelerated at 50g (which, incidentally, would still require a rail 16kms long! ).
The Moon is the ideal place for a rail-gun system with its low escape velocity and negligible atmosphere. But for Mars, unless the Podkletnov gravity-modifying device gives us a new way of overcoming gravity wells, I'm still a space elevator fan!!
Hi Cindy!
I believe one of the famous Mars meteorites (SNC meteorites, I think they call them) showed evidence of salty water having percolated through it at some stage.
Since reading about that, I have tended to think in terms of a salty ocean on Mars in the past. Assuming there was an ocean at all, of course!
If we do ever (re)create an Oceanus Borealis, and if it's salty, I can't see any reason in principle why we shouldn't be able to introduce Terran sea-creatures. But the ecology of Earth's oceans is complex and one creature depends on another which depends on another etc. I suppose marine zoologists would have to start with the lowest members of the food-chain first and then gradually introduce other species at the appropriate times.
Then there's the problem of numbers. There is, for instance, a minimum number of, say, blue whales in Earth's oceans, below which they won't find each other often enough to breed successfully! So you probably couldn't drop a few whales into your brand new Martian ocean and expect them to carry on from there. It would take a lot of planning by very smart people to make the whole thing work, and I wouldn't be surprised if they made quite a few false starts before getting it right.
This is an interesting thing to consider. Thanks for bringing it up! It just goes to show that terraforming, though complicated, is really just the beginning of something that will keep humanity busy for many centuries to come!
We'd better get started as soon as possible!!
Looks like I got the wrong end of the stick! I half suspected I had.
My apologies, Phobos!
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I understand "tacking" into the wind in a yacht on Earth, but that uses the pressure of the water on the hull and the keel in such a way as to allow you to sail almost straight into the wind. (Well ... within, say, 30 degrees of straight into the wind, anyway.)
There's nothing for the ship to push against in interplanetary space, so tacking would be difficult, I think.
Obviously, there's a simple explanation or people like Sir Arthur C. Clarke wouldn't be so enthusiastic about it.
It's just that I can't quite get a handle on it and would appreciate an "idiot's guide to solar sailing"!!!
I think Adrian's right. I'm a fully-fledged Mars Society member and they gave me an access PIN for the "members only" section.
I was breathless with anticipation as I attempted to access the site ... imagining all sorts of risque diagrams of sex in zero-g on the way to Mars!! (Yeah, right ... ! ) And I could only speculate as to what could be achieved in 0.38g on Mars!
And what happened ... ? I couldn't gain access!
I even emailed Maggie Zubrin for help but received no response. Quelle bummer!! ... as the French might say!
But, putting aside my frustration re. "that site", I second what Adrian says: Join The Mars Society today!!! Unless you put your money where your exploration desires lie, you are as nothing! You don't register on the politicians' scopes and you don't really count!!
DO IT TODAY!!!!! (Or I'll be forced to send the heavies around to "talk to you").
Cindy's 110% right when she says there are "more kooks where these two gals came from"!
That's why those of us serious about space exploration and Mars colonisation get packaged up with all the nutcases and tarred with the same brush!!!
And the average shmuck in the street doesn't know his a** from his elbow and thinks we're all just escapees from the local psych. ward!
Which brings me back to the late, great Carl Sagan, who insisted we OWE IT TO OURSELVES to be skeptical, or else start believing in pixies again and burning innocent women as witches!
Sorry! Sometimes I get a little bit hot under the collar.
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One of the things which might cause trouble on Mars, with either tea or coffee, is habitat pressure.
I've always assumed that domes and other living spaces would have air pressure of about 500 millibars. At this pressure, water boils at 81.7 deg.C.
You know what that means?!! Cooking will be a nightmare unless you use pressure cookers routinely. And as for tea and coffee .... I don't like to think about it!!
You were right, C M Edwards, the trip is off!
I've never bothered to look up the principles of solar sailing. Moving away from the sun seems self-explanatory but how do you sail sunwards?
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Phobos writes that Venus will not host a human mission in the foreseeable future because its heat and gravity are too much of a barrier.
Do I detect a misapprehension here?
Venus is certainly hot as h***, and it's atmosphere is massive (90 bar, I thought). But the planet's mass is only 4/5ths that of Earth and it's surface gravity about 0.9g
Actually, it's a weight-watchers dream ... the average human would be about 7 kilograms lighter, and no diet required!!
Hope I'm not being pedantic in bringing this up!
Cindy asks where China is going to get the money for a Mars mission.
They stated recently that the big costs are in technology development and that they are prepared to learn from other space-faring nations. In other words they're happy to buy second-hand technology, especially from Russia I assume.
I think also that Cindy's reaction, although perfectly understandable when you see how NASA does business, is based on a misperception: Sending people to the Moon, or even Mars, is probably not as expensive as we're led to believe; especially if you're prepared to buy cheap from other nations.
There's some guy in America who is the "cheapskate's Maharishi Yogi"! He has shown that he can feed and clothe himself, and even furnish his home, for a tiny fraction of what most of us pay. This man never stops bargain-hunting! I think China will do the same in space.
Your hero and mine, the great Dr. Zubrin, has pointed out how NASA can get the bill for manned Mars missions down from the $500 billion of 1989 to maybe $30 billion today. Most people will tell you that the primary obstacles to such missions are NOT technology and NOT money, but the lack of political will.
If China, which appears to have the political will, puts aside just $4 billion a year between now and 2015, they'll have about $50 billion towards their dream of Taikonauts on Mars; more than enough for Mars Direct style missions. And it's relatively inexpensive form of international prestige, too!
I think China might just surprise us all.