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#1 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » An astronaut is urging NASA to form new spacesuit program » 2025-12-27 16:31:04

We have a lot of experiences in prior decades with oxygen suits in the 3 to 4 psia range.  There is no cognitive problem in that range.  But,  below about 3 psia,  you run into lung and nasal tissue dry-out problems,  except for very short exposures,  measured in minutes.

The main point about suit pressures is that the closer you are to 3-4 psia,  the easier it is to do mechanical counterpressure suit design.  Which should be as MCP underwear,  worn underneath unpressurized garments to provide thermal and mechanical protection.  With known material technologies,  these start becoming infeasible for suit pressures above 4 psia.

In recent years,  I have seen oxygen suit pressures creeping toward,  or even exceeding 8 psia.  There is no need for this,  except to eliminate pre-breathe with something resembling Earthly air at near sea level pressures in the habitat.  Synthetic air (oxygen-nitrogen mix) at 1 atm pressure has partial pressures of 3.077 psia oxygen,  and 11.619 psia nitrogen. 

Using the NASA pre-breathe criterion on a nitrogen pressure that high produces a min oxygen suit pressure of 9.682 psia.  See why there has been suit pressure "creep" upwards?

You do NOT need that much habitat pressure,  nor do you need oxygen partial pressure at sea level values!  Nor do you have to have only 20.94 volume % oxygen in your mix!  There are plenty of people doing just fine living and reproducing at higher altitudes.  Altitudes to 2500 m (8200 feet) produce pregnancy and birthing trouble rates indistinguishable from those at sea level.  So says history dating all the way back to the Spanish colonies in South America.

The only issue you run into when increasing the oxygen % in your mix is fire danger.  But that depends upon concentration in units same as density,  not just %.  If you lower total atm pressures,  you lower those concentrations for reducing fire danger. 

Try my rule-of-43 atmosphere!  43% by volume oxygen,  at 43% of an atmosphere pressure,  in the 2-gas mix.  6.319 psia in the hab.  The oxygen partial pressure is 2.717 psia,  just about the same or a bit higher than that at 2500 m on Earth.  The nitrogen partial pressure is 3.602 psia,  which divided by the no pre-breathe criterion is a min oxygen suit pressure of 3.001 psia,  right in line with the known min limit to avoid drying out tissues too fast.  And the oxygen concentration equal to or less than that of room temperature air at sea level,  for no worse fire danger than on Earth.

How is that not a good solution to habitat and oxygen suit pressures?  On Mars,  the moon,  out in space,  pretty much anywhere!  And it makes MCP suits eminently feasible,  too boot!

GW

#2 Re: Meta New Mars » RobertDyck Postings » 2025-12-26 17:04:05

Use the long-known NASA criterion for no pre-breathe time.  The partial pressure in the habitat,  of the nitrogen,  may not exceed the total pressure of the pure oxygen fed to the suit,  by more than a factor of 1.2. 

If you satisfy that criterion,  there is no "pre-breathe" time associated with donning an oxygen suit and going outside immediately,  without risking the bends from the nitrogen. 

If you do more than about half an atmosphere of 21% O2/ 79% N2 mix in the habitat atmosphere,  at more than around 0.5 atm hab atmosphere pressure,  this is impossible to do. 

But half or a little less than half an atmosphere of oxygen-nitrogen mix in the habitat atmosphere,  meets that criterion for donning a pure O2 suit and just going outside with no pre-breathe.

GW

#3 Re: Interplanetary transportation » Propellant Sourced from Moon » 2025-12-21 16:31:19

If you have to process tons of regolith to get pounds of water,  that is not an easily-recovered or inexpensive resource!  Period!  We already know about low-concentration resources being bad mining bets,  from centuries of prospecting and mining right here on Earth.  It's worse in space,  where you have to have pressure suits and life support.

An "easily recovered ice resource" would yield a ton of dirty water from only a few to at most only several tons of regolith.   That's a buried glacier,  not small bits of frost on regolith particles!  Maybe there's such a thing on the moon,  and maybe not.  Nobody yet knows.

There really are very likely buried glacier resources like that on Mars,  although we have yet to verify that on the ground.  And certainly on some of the icy moons of the outer planets.  Plus all the Kuiper belt objects.  But maybe not the moon.

Talking about thinly-spread concentrations as if they were cheaply- and easily-recovered items is marketing hype (spelled "marketeering lies"),  not technical truth.  Don't be taken in by it.

You first go to the moon and prospect to find out what is really there,  where exactly it is located,  and in what concentrations it exists.  Only then can you plan your next steps.  It's all about getting real ground truth. 

GW

#4 Re: Human missions » Moxie and only Moxie Oxygen creation » 2025-12-21 16:16:03

Propellant manufacture is by far more hungry for high oxygen generation rates.  The equipment to do this will inherently be large,  and power-consumptive.  There is no way around that ugly little fact of life.

I rather think that electrolyzing water purified from mined ice is the better choice for propellant manufacture,  especially if the propellant is LOX-LH2.  Your biggest energy expenditure will be for liquifying the gases.  Although electrolysis might be a fairly close second,  if the ~6% efficiency typical here obtains there. 

It is possible to get LOX-LCH4 propellants by using both water and Martian CO2.  But it's neither electrolysis nor the Moxie process.  Just more big heavy,  power-consumptive machinery to do it on a big scale. 

Purifying water from likely-polluted ice is a thermal process after an initial filtering process.  Either you distill it,  or you freeze it.  Sea water freezes to fresh water ice,  enhancing the brine content in the sea water just below the ice cake.  You could run it through 2 to 4 steps of that,  and get most of the various salts out,  possibly even including the perchlorates.  But all the water you start with will reach the end as product;  there will be significant concentrated brine waste.  You can take advantage of the cold environment to do the freezing.  Distillation would work just like it does here.  You just need to supply a lot of heat energy.  And again,  not all the water you start with arrives as product.  There will always be concentrated brine waste!  It is a Second Law thing.

For the Martian CO2,  the biggest problem is compression.  Compressors there will look (and weigh) more like vacuum pumps,  a lot of power-consumptive machinery for just a very small throughput stream.  The 6 mbar atmospheric pressure is what forces that outcome.  10 mbar,  no difference.  Same problem:  the local "air" is a 1st cousin to vacuum.

If you can slightly cool some sort of duct to a temperature below about -110 F,  the CO2 will preferentially condense out first as a dry ice frost or snow in the duct.  You would have to stop and recover it out of that duct,  making this more of a batch process than any sort of continuous flow process.  Be that as it may,  pack the recovered dry ice tightly into a pressure container,  and warm it above -110 F.  It will be high-pressure CO2 gas in that container in a small amount of time,  and for very little energy input compared to direct compressor-type compression.  Once near 1+ atm pressure,  your ordinary Earthly-type compressors and other machinery will work "right".  But not until you "pre-compress" it to near 1 atm.

GW

#5 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Mars Temperature Readings and Calculated Estimates » 2025-12-18 22:00:24

Memory fails with age.  I confused Insight with its subsurface "mole" probe,  with Phoenix,  which really did land near the polar ice cap.  Phoenix was not equipped to measure subsurface temperatures.  Insight was,  but landed close to the equator.  The "mole" probe on Insight did not work "as advertised".  Even so,  I am now guessing the AI might be closer to "right" than I was.  Subsurface below 2 m might well be -50 C,  over much of Mars.   

GW

#6 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Mars Temperature Readings and Calculated Estimates » 2025-12-18 11:51:50

A reminder:  the insight mission was very near a polar cap.  All the others have been at "temperate to equatorial" latitudes. 

Subsurface conditions are quite different at polar latitudes here on Earth.

At around 30 deg N latitude here in Texas,  the soil temperature about 6 feet or more down is near 58 F,  with the year-round-day0night average temperature (standard atmosphere model) 59 F.  That's 2 to 3 m down!!!

At the surface,  summer soil temperatures are near the 95-105 F daytime air temperature,  and around 80 F at night.  In the winter,  pipes buried 6 inches or more do not freeze,  if the cold snap is shorter than 2 weeks below freezing.  A foot is better insurance.  But both water systems and fire mains are buried much deeper than that.  Fire mains are 6 feet down,  by code.

GW

#7 Re: Human missions » Why Artemis is “better” than Apollo. » 2025-12-17 10:55:49

Up to now,  the usual orbital launch vehicle is two stages with a payload shroud.  It has proven possible to recover the first stage,  even if is largely constructed of aluminum,  but ONLY because speed at entry is far lower than from orbit.  Nearer 1 km/s than 8.  With aluminum,  you usually need an entry burn to slow down enough.  With stainless steel,  this is proving not to be necessary.  There is very little in the way of plasma at Mach 6,  and the hot air temperature is near 1800-1900 K.  And for only a minute or two.

Second stages capable of surviving entry from orbit are a real problem,  simply because the speed is so much higher.  The exposure is to far higher plasma temperatures (in the 4000 to 8000 K range),  and for a far longer duration(3 or 4 minutes).  So far,  it has proven to require some or all of the stage to be covered in some sort of heat shield material.  Coming back from the moon or deep space is even worse:  similar exposure times,  but plasma temperatures can approach 6000 to 11,000 K.

What works at best mass ratio for an expendable second stage is not what you have to build for a recoverable second stage,  as SpaceX has been demonstrating with its Starship.  It must also be a qualified,  heat-shielded entry vehicle,  and in addition to that must also be capable of some sort of final descent and landing.  That pretty much at least doubles,  and maybe triples,  the stage inert mass fraction.

GW

#8 Re: Human missions » Humidity Moisture Habitat Air Management » 2025-12-17 10:23:17

You will need doors and airlocks to go into and out of this structure.  Those things have to open and close.  A simple duct through the wall does not have to open and close.  That is an easier thing to do than installing doors and airlocks.  Why not take advantage of the cold heat sink outside to cause the heat you must move to flow spontaneously from warm to cold,  instead of expending power to pump it against an adverse temperature gradient?

Whatever the population is,  that sets how big this dehumidification system must be.  I do NOT have that information!  It is the water vapor in their exhalations that creates the excess humidity in the habitat atmosphere.  You want to condense that out and recover the water to reuse it.  The warm/cold loop is a way to do that with only one moving part:  an axial-flow fan,  and a very low energy cost to run it.  I'm just guessing about a 2 foot diameter duct flowing at something in the 4 to 20 foot/sec range of speed.  Very low friction loss to overcome with the fan.  We are talking a few dozen watts to run the fan.

You do not run the humid atmosphere through that loop,  that risks clogging the duct with frost.  It is a closed-loop system isolated from the atmosphere in a pressure-tight loop of simple sheet metal ducting.  The same gas mixture can be used inside the loop as in the habitation,  but it needs to be zero humidity.  The atmosphere in the habitation you want to run at about 30% relative humidity,  no lower than about 20%.  Risk of drying out nasal tissues if you go too low.

The inherent heat loss to the outside is air flow at maybe 1 to 2 lbm/sec dropping from around 77 F to no colder than 40 F.  That loss would be trivial compared to the heat loss directly through the walls of the dome,  simply because of its enormous exposed surface area.

GW

#9 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » A City Rises on the Plain... » 2025-12-17 10:11:25

If the dome shape is parabolic,  where it contacts the foundations will be nearly vertical.  I looked at the vertical case just to see how bad things could be. 

It is not my intention to design or redesign this habitation.  This is Calliban's idea.  I just thought of something he should be worrying about;  and maybe he has already done that.

I'm not sure who suggested vapor compression dehumidification first.  But since this thing is to be built in a cold place,  I suggested an easier-to-build,  lower-energy-cost means to dehumidify. 

GW

#10 Re: Unmanned probes » MAVEN Launch | Nov 18, 2013 1:28 p.m. EST » 2025-12-17 10:04:44

From AIAA's Daily Launch email newsletter for Wed 12-17-2025:


Space
NASA's MAVEN spacecraft is still silent at Mars — and apparently is spinning, too
NASA still hasn't heard from its MAVEN Mars orbiter, and the spacecraft appears to be spinning in an odd way as well.

-----   
My take:

Odds are the craft was struck by something:  a meteor or a piece of debris.  That event would both alter the orbit and induce a spin,  because it is extremely unlikely the axis of the strike would pass through the center of gravity.  And those literally are the two symptoms seen,  as described in the full space.com article this headline links to.

GW

#11 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » Companion for Mars Expedition Number One; 17 crew members » 2025-12-13 15:45:11

Hi Spacenut:

Thanks for making my chart visible instead of a link.  I still do not really understand how you did that. 

This was the basic notion applied to exploration-onward for the last 500 years or so here on Earth,  although it often did not get done "right".  On other worlds that are more harshly fatal,  you must do it right,  and with great attention to getting things "right" in every phase.  The other worlds lack the air,  water,  and food that were pretty much available most everywhere here on Earth 300-500 years ago. 

GW

#12 Re: Human missions » Humidity Moisture Habitat Air Management » 2025-12-13 15:38:55

When you are located in a cold place like most of Mars,  or the lunar night,  take advantage of that cold to condense the moisture out of your air.  You need only a way to collect the frost/ice to use it for water. 

GW

#14 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Fighter jets: F-35 vs Gripen vs Avro Arrow » 2025-12-09 12:17:13

Rob:

I don't know enough to respond fully to what you asked in post #1 above.  But I will say what I do know.

The cold soak up there in Arctic Canada does present some pretty serious problems operating gas turbine engines.  It usually takes a wide-cut fuel to get reliable ignition and operation,  when the plane and fuel are that soaked-out that cold or colder.  Such fuels would be Jet-B/JP-4 (pretty much the same product sold to different customers with different specs).  The JP-8 that most modern military jets burn is not a wide-cut fuel,  but a kerosene,  rather similar to JP-5/Jet-A/Jet-A-1.  Freezepoints vary with the spec a little,  but fall in the -58 to -65 F range (-50 to -54 C).  Wide cut will successfully go colder than that.  Gasoline goes much colder still.  It is not the actual freezepoint,  but the cold vapor pressure which governs the vapor/air ratio in the combustor cans,  that is the real issue.

I am very impressed by the 2 gee maneuver capability at 50,000 ft altitude in that RCAF spec.  Service ceilings for jet fighters usually have been in the 50-60,000 foot range since the Korean War,  right down to the present day,  with exceptions like the U-2 and the SR-71/A-12 family.  Service ceiling is defined in the FAR's to be the altitude at which max power climb rate is down to the almost-imperceptible 200 feet per minute.  Military specs are similar.  There is no maneuver at that service ceiling condition,  the airplane can just barely fly unaccelerated straight and level.  It's easy to stall at high altitude,  and the stall danger is a violent spin,  in air too thin to prevent inertia coupling.  (BTW,  the larger vertical fin on the B-17 from the E model of 1940-onward was a response to this same kind of high-altitude spin risk.)

The "combat ceiling" of 60,000 feet in the spec is not the service ceiling,  not with a spec'd cruise at 70,000 feet!  That would be one impressive high altitude airplane!  I suppose the SR-71/A-12 might be roughly comparable with a Mach 3 to 3.2 max cruise at 85,000 feet.  But those planes burned an early version of thermally-stable jet fuel designated JP-7.  There is no JP-7 any more,  but it would be similar to the kerosenes JP-5,  JP-8,  and Jet-A/jet-A-1.  Wouldn't work well at all in Arctic Canada. 

As for burning-out engines in a fast climb,  there is a time limitation for operation at full power,  because turbine blades,  combustor cans,  and afterburner/nozzle hardware just gets too hot at the max power setting.  You can only do that for a very few minutes.  But,  it takes full power to climb fast.  The "trick" really is being able to handle the heat long enough to get to high altitude at full power,  to meet the time spec.  If the engine was not designed to operate that long at max power,  there is little you can do to meet the tougher short time spec to high altitude. 

This effect was manifested in a different way in the Mig-25 Foxbat.  That airplane,  if carrying no external stores at all,  could fly as fast as Mach 3.5.  Its engines were short-life at only 500 hours.  And you did not overhaul them,  you simply replaced them.  This obtains because of the max power setting for long intervals required to intercept at Mach 3.5,  or to intercept at the redline Mach 2.8 and near-max power with external stores.  At max power,  engine stuff just gets hot.  And at high supersonic,  the inlet air is rather hot,  which makes the whole problem worse.  Carrying stores,  the issue was vibration from the aerodynamics around the stores,  but with the drag of the stores,  it wouldn't have gone much faster,  even without vibrations.

If you really want to fly high altitude with handling practicality,  you must fly well-supersonic.  The U-2 was subsonic,  with a service ceiling altitude somewhere around 70,000 feet.  But subsonic like that,  the difference between stall speed and max speed was only 5 KIAS,  even with that huge wing.  And that huge wing made landings difficult indeed.  The wind can upset you all too easily with a landing speed that low,  in an airplane that big.

I hope that answers your question to me.

GW

#15 Re: Unmanned probes » Viking Landers » 2025-12-08 11:38:09

Note that the Viking landers were low and squat,  like the Surveyors and Apollo LM's that went to the moon.  The footpads were quite large,  too.  They pretty much met the criteria for rough-field landings,  especially with the far less sophisticated robot guidance of ~50 years ago.  Both survived.  I am not surprised.  Most of the other US Mars landers followed the same pattern,  except for the two airbag designs.

As for the frost,  depending upon the Martian season,  both water and carbon dioxide are frost formers.  Most of the Martian year,  it is water.  But in the dead of winter,  it is cold enough to form dry ice,  too.

GW

#16 Re: Human missions » Why Artemis is “better” than Apollo. » 2025-12-08 11:07:53

I would also add to the previous post that I think the concerns about in-space refueling are overblown.  SpaceX is evolving toward accelerating the docked pair of vehicles at very low gee with thrusters of one type or another,  slowly settling the propellants into the bottoms of the tanks.  That will work. 

Whether this can be done robotically is the real question here,  especially since the AI stuff is already proving to be problematical in self-driving vehicles.  If the programmers actually address all the possible contingencies,  it will work.  If they do not,  sooner or later there will be a catastrophe.  Simple as that.  The track record with self driving cars is not promising,  as regards programmers anticipating all possible contingencies. 

As for the number of tanker flights,  I think it is far too soon to be saying that it will take this or that number of flights.  This thing is still in experimental flight test,  and the final vehicle layout and configuration is still unknown at the detail level required to determine how much propellant payload could be delivered on-orbit.  Even the propellant capacity of the vehicle is still evolving. For a full refill,  could be anywhere from 6+ to 12+ flights.  No one knows for sure yet!  Claims "to know" this number are still BS.

And there is the long-term boil-off problem.  Most anything they are doing will get you days of "stage life",  but not weeks.  They might get to weeks if the propellant tankage has the header tanks nested inside the main tanks,  but only for the small quantities that the header tanks hold.  To make it work,  they will have to empty and vent the outer main tank,  so that the vacuum between makes the tank system into a thermos bottle.  The outer tank shell is also the sun shield that stops solar heating of the header tank,  but only if there is vacuum between them.

One header tank is nested right now in the flight test configuration up to this point,  the other is not.  That will have to be rectified for the real mission.  But as I said,  we are still in experimental flight test with experimental configuration,  and these configurations are still evolving.  Claiming to already know the final "stage life" is also BS at this stage of the game.

But,  what those considerations just discussed prove,  is that this vehicle design is NOWHERE NEAR done with very experimental flight test,  much less any final development prove-out testing!  Precisely because of that,  projecting mission schedules using it are still near-100% BS!  That's the real effect of the factor-3-ish ratio between "Musk time" and real-world time that we have seen,  ever since SpaceX first started flying Falcon-1's expendably out of Kwajalein.

That time ratio is different with each contractor,  but all contractors have always had such time ratios.  Long ago,  that was taken into account by the government when planning military aircraft and space programs,  and also for the civilian space program (same crowd of contractors back then).  The details have shifted some since then,  especially since there are now different pools of contractors for the various military and civil programs that only overlap some now.  But it would seem that nobody at today's version of NASA (or DOD for that matter) remembers anything about evaluating and taking into account these time ratios. 

That lack shows in how slow (and concomittantly expensive) it has become to actually do anything anymore.  The P-51 Mustang went from a sketch on a napkin to a flying prototype in about 100 days.  It took another year to re-engine the plane to make it the success that it finally became.  And another year or three before they went to the bubble canopy on P-51D,  solving the pilot combat visibility issue.  That's about 3.5 years from an idea to a fully-successful combat design truly worthy of mass production. 

Today that's now running about 25+ years (!!!) for airplanes and giant rockets.  I think SpaceX is doing fairly well;  their half-reusable Falcon-9 was ready in about a decade from idea to reality,  which is way better than the industry usual.  I think Starship/Superheavy is going to take them about that same decade to make ready.  They are still a tad less than halfway done doing that.

GW

#17 Re: Human missions » Why Artemis is “better” than Apollo. » 2025-12-08 10:41:13

from the Monday 12-8-2025 "Daily Launch" email newsletter,  there was a link to a longer article at Space.com,  the text of which I copied and reproduced here:

TITLE 'We have lost a lot of time.' Former NASA chief says US needs to start over with moon landing plans or risk losing to China

AUTHORSHIP By Brett Tingley published 3 days ago

SUBTITLE "We have stuck to a plan that does not make sense."

TEXT Former NASA administrator Michael Griffin pulled no punches about where he sees America's current Artemis moon landing program in Congressional testimony today.

Griffin testified alongside other witnesses at a hearing held in Washington D.C. on Thursday (Dec. 4) by the Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee of the U.S. House of Representatives. The hearing, titled "Strategic Trajectories Assessing China’s Space Rise and the Risks to U.S. Leadership," was held to discuss the rapid development of China's space program and what that means for America's long-held dominance when it comes to space exploration.

And according to Griffin and the witnesses at the hearing, that dominance might soon cede to China due to policy decisions that continue to plague the Artemis program, NASA's current planned campaign of moon missions. "Sticking to a plan is important when the plan makes sense. China is sticking to a plan that makes sense. It looks a lot, in fact, like what the United States did for Apollo," Griffin said. "We have stuck to a plan that does not make sense."

Griffin said NASA and two consecutive presidential administrations have stuck to an Artemis moon landing architecture that "cannot work" and "poses a level of crew risk that should be considered unacceptable." The former NASA administrator reiterated a previous recommendation he made to Congress, arguing that NASA's Artemis 3 mission, currently planned for 2027, should be canceled  — along with every other Artemis mission  — so NASA and the U.S. government can rethink the whole plan for America's return to the moon.

"We should start over, proceeding with all deliberate speed," Griffin said. "We have lost a lot of time, and we may not be able to return to the moon before the Chinese execute their own first landing. Or we may; space is hard and despite the progress that China is making, mission success is guaranteed to no one. But though we may not win at this first step, we cannot cede the pursuit and leave the playing field to others."

NASA and SpaceX's current plan for Artemis 3 and other moon missions in the program relies on a complicated in-orbit refueling system. The current moon landing architecture requires a high number of SpaceX Starship launches in order to refuel the lander that would take NASA astronauts to the moon. The exact number still isn't even known, though SpaceX estimates it could require 12 Starship launches to fully refuel the lander. The concept also remains unproven; SpaceX intends to test Starship's in-flight refueling system on an upcoming launch.

Furthermore, Griffin added, the length of time the lander would need to remain in orbit while the refueling flights launch and rendezvous with it would "almost guarantee" the propellant loaded into the lunar lander would boil off before the mission proceeds. "I do not see a way with the current technology we have to overcome those problems, and therefore we should not pursue that line of approach," Griffin said.

Even SpaceX appears to doubt the current Artemis moon landing architecture. In internal company documents obtained by Politico, SpaceX estimates that September 2028 is the earliest timeline for a first crewed lunar landing attempt; however, according to publicly available information, NASA is still aiming for 2027 for that mission.

If Artemis 3 is delayed to late 2028, there will have been an average of two years between the first three Artemis program missions. The Apollo program, by comparison, launched each of its 11 missions an average of once every 4.5 months between 1968 and 1972.

NASA's current acting administrator has even criticized SpaceX for being "behind" on its lunar lander and Starship development. In remarks made in October 2025, acting NASA chief Sean Duffy suggested the Trump administration might be looking for other companies to compete to build and launch NASA's next moon lander. "The president and I want to get to the moon in this president's term, so I'm gonna open up the contract," Duffy told CNBC. "I'm gonna let other space companies compete with SpaceX, like Blue Origin."

But it could be that such programmatic instability is what is holding the United States back from committing to a moon landing program in the long-term, according to Dean Cheng, a China expert at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies. Cheng told House representatives during the hearing that the bureaucratic structures of the Chinese government allow the nation to stick to plans over longer timelines than the U.S. government system allows. "China sticks to a plan. It creates a plan that sticks to it for decades," Cheng said. "And the benefit there is programmatic stability, budgetary stability, staff stability."

NASA, meanwhile, has been in a period of turmoil that has seen key science facilities lose capabilities, many flagship science missions put at risk of cancellation due to budget cuts, and thousands of personnel lost due to federal workforce reductions.

But whether or not the United States returns to the moon before China, former NASA chief Griffin said that the real risk is "failing to commit to what winning really means in the long run." Many U.S. government officials have stressed that whichever nation is able to establish a sustained presence on the moon first will have the privilege of establishing norms for how other nations can access and use lunar resources. If China manages to get a foothold on the moon ahead of the United States, it may be able to dictate who uses certain areas of the moon going forward, and how.

"I am confident that China fully understands this," Griffin said.

-----   
My take:

Here are some high-level people saying essentially the same things I have been saying:  how ridiculous our still-evolving mission architecture has been for returning to the moon,  and how stupid it was to project a landing date without a lander leaving development testing already in-hand.  The only item missing from this article is my comment that this should not be a race to see who is "first" about anything,  because we already put boots on the moon over half a century ago!  However,  to get the politicians to do anything,  I guess it has to be some sort of race,  because of the technically-incompetent idiots that the politicians usually are.  Another stupid race,  just like with Apollo.

GW

#18 Re: Not So Free Chat » Politics » 2025-12-05 16:15:41

I dunno what "right wing music" is.  Sounds rather contrived to me.  Typical of what happens as extremists of one type or another take over your government or your political parties. 

But I do know what both far-right and far-left extremism does:  install dictatorships.  Britain almost was destroyed by the far-right dictatorship of Nazi Germany.  We helped them survive and together defeat Hitler.  Everybody knows what Stalin did in his far-left dictatorship.  All dictatorships are the same.  Does not matter what they say or how they got there,  it only matters what they do.

And I have noticed that some Brits and some Canadians (and some French and some Germans) have very most definitely noticed the dictatorship currently still being installed in the US.  They've seen this crap in action before,  we haven't (although the trend toward it was interrupted by the Pear Harbor attack).  Its installation is not complete yet here in the US,  but there is very little time left to oppose it. Unless you want to do armed revolution in the streets.  I'd rather not:  incredible amounts of mess to clean up afterward.  But I will if I have to.

GW

#19 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » A City Rises on the Plain... » 2025-12-05 12:54:08

I kind of figured the "mushroom" Mars building as a hollow masonry column or tower in the center,  with beams radiating outwards toward small masonry columns distributed around the periphery.  Atop the beams is the slab that supports a thick loose regolith "cap" that is your radiation and meteor shield. 

Between the periphery columns is where you add cylindrically-curved transparent and multi-layer panels that each are but segments of a pressure vessel cylinder shape.  There will need to be more compressive stress in the columns than the tension-from-bending induced by pressurizing the panels,  which otherwise just bear against the columns in a radial-outward direction.  That spacing gets set to keep the columns in all-compression.  There will be shear in them,  that is inherent.  But that is the price you pay for a transparent ringwall to get lots of light inside without using electricity,  which will be inherently scarce. 

This same construction could be done on the moon.  You need the same radiation and meteor shielding there.  The center column needs a proper foundation,  and so does the ring of ringwall columns.  This foundation could be an excavation back-filled with size-graded layers of compacted cobbles-and-fines,  with the cobbles definitely in intimate contact.  You would only need a finished floor pavement across the top layer of gravel-and-fines. 

This kind of graded,  compacted backfill is a load-spreader that spreads high bearing pressures upon the surface into lower pressures that the regolith can safely bear,  lower down.  All of this is well-known civil engineering "dirtwork" stuff.  In the absence of data,  use only 30 degrees off vertical as the load spreading angle.  Here on Earth,  angles vary from 30 to 45 degrees,  with 34 degrees as the common "default" value.  But we have water content,  the moon and Mars do not.  So use the min 30 degrees for safety.  You must go deep enough so that the weight upon the larger footprint area at the bottom of your excavation is a pressure at (or under) the safe bearing pressure of the regolith.  You will be excavating and backfilling quite deeply.  This is big machinery work,  not pick and shovel stuff. 

Regolith (on the moon and on Mars) has low bearing strength because the rocks in it are not in direct contact,  and they are not properly size-graded.  It resembles nothing so much as "Earthly sand dune sand" in its strength and cohesion.  There's a bit more cohesion on the moon than Mars,  because the particles are sharp on the moon.  But neither has a high safe bearing pressure.  0.1 to 0.2 MPa is all that we know of,  based on "sand dune sand" here.  That would be "fine,  dry,  loose sand". 

Sealing against loss of atmosphere by percolating gas could be done with sheet polymer liners on the inside,  bonded together,  and to the inside constructed surfaces. 

That kind of excavated foundation would replace the need to develop a Mars or moon "concrete" in the foundation,  but not the beams or the roof slab.  That "solution" remains to be discovered:  a castable reinforced "concrete" usable in vacuum at at very cold temperatures.  But the machinery to do this,  and to prepare the backfill materials,  is really big and heavy,  and will need copious amounts of electrical power to run!  You are looking at something near 500-1000 HP per excavator machine,  and each weighing several tons.  Just like here!

This can be done.  But you CANNOT stint on any of this work!  That would be far too unsafe to bet lives on! 

GW

EDIT UPDATE same day:  if you cannot develop a suitable moon/Mars concrete,  then the alternative is steel beams and a steel plate for the roof slab.  Just more weight to ship from Earth,  but then EVERYTHING about this kind of building construction becomes things we already know how to do.

#20 Re: Human missions » Why Artemis is “better” than Apollo. » 2025-12-05 11:55:37

Regarding post 32 above,  more "I-told-you-so" stuff showed up in today's (5 Dec 25) "Daily Launch" from AIAA:

Ars Technica

Congress warned that NASA’s current plan for Artemis “cannot work”

In recent months, it has begun dawning on US lawmakers that, absent significant intervention, China will land humans on the Moon before the United States can return there with the Artemis Program. So far, legislators have yet to take meaningful action on this—a $10 billion infusion into NASA’s budget this summer essentially provided zero funding for efforts needed to land humans on the Moon this decade. But now a subcommittee of the House Committee on Space, Science, and Technology has begun reviewing the space agency’s policy, expressing concerns about Chinese competition in civil spaceflight.

-----   
My take:

Finally,  it is just beginning to dawn on the politicians running NASA's show that they have been seriously miss-running it!  About time!  Actually,  far too late!  Announcing an expected landing date without a lander (and a rover) almost done with development,  was just UTTERLY STUPID!  But that's EXACTLY what you get when you let incompetent politicians be the top managers.  Always has been,  always will be.

This return-to-the-moon thing should not be another space race in the first place.  The US put boots on the moon 56-53 years ago.  It should no longer be about "who does something first".  It should actually be about going there to do something significant and perhaps even useful.

Congress took over managing NASA by the end of Apollo.  We have spent the last half a century puttering around with men in orbit (WITHOUT doing artificial spin gravity work !!!),  while sending probes to other planets from the one part of NASA not so badly micromanaged by Congress until recently.  Before Nixon killed all manned spaceflight outside LEO (not just Apollo!!!),  the plan was US boots on Mars in the 1980's!!! 

EDIT UPDATE same day:  NASA killed NERVA just as it was ready to fly as an alternate 3rd stage on Saturn-5,  when Nixon forbade manned flight outside LEO,  based on the reasoning "who needs the rocket if we aren't going to go?"  They learned that kind of "reasoning" from Congress!

See what Congress micromanaging NASA REALLY did?

GW

#21 Re: Exploration to Settlement Creation » A City Rises on the Plain... » 2025-12-03 10:54:09

There are very good technical reasons why pressure vessels have round shapes based on spherical or cylindrical geometries,  and arches supporting weight are more like parabolas in shape. Static pressure acts equally in all directions at once,  weight does not. 

If you build only a pressure dome,  it will have to have a spherical membrane shape in order not to be too thick and too heavy.  The usual idea is to make it transparent to visible light so that things could be grown under it.  That forces you either to glass,  or to structural plastics.  Glass is vulnerable to impact fractures,  and the structural plastics fail fairly quickly when exposed to harsh UV.  Neither option can provide much in the way of radiation protection.

If you build arches to hold up a regolith radiation shield,  which can also provide meteoroid impact protection,  you will be using the more paraboloid shape.  This thing has to stand up under the weight of the regolith,  even when not pressurized.  You cannot have it both ways:  you must build it before you can pressurize it and live in it.  But,  your real problem is then getting visible light into it so that you can grow stuff.

Arches are only one way to hold up weight.  Beams are another,  and can be curved,  too.  Beams and columns with a slab atop can also hold up regolith shielding,  but leaves you free to make the side walls transparent,  especially if you use a round floor plan.  That way,  mirrors outside can direct lots of visible sunlight into the build through those transparent side walls between all the columns that hold up the beam and slab roof. 

It sort of looks like a mushroom with a shower-curtain ringwall hanging from the perimeter of the cap.  And with a round floorplan,  that ringwall is an efficient cylinder pressure vessel.  The UV danger will drive you to safety glass,  but you will need multiple layers of it anyway for thermal insulation.

I came up with this notion for Martian building construction several years ago.  It does require some sort of Martian "concrete" for the foundations and the reinforced beams and roof slab.  It was posted on my "exrocketman" site January 26,  2013 as "Aboveground Mars Houses".  That old article has no search code,  you'll have to use the archive navigation tool to reach it.  Left side of the page.  Click on year 2013,  then on "January",  then on the title if need be. 

The enabling technology will be a Martian concrete.  All the rest is stuff we already know how to do.  I don't think "icecrete" will do,  it will sublime away because we need a habitat to be warm inside.

GW

#22 Re: Human missions » Why Artemis is “better” than Apollo. » 2025-12-03 10:27:24

There may or may not be large quantities of easily-recoverable ice on the moon near its poles.  We still do not know with real ground truth.  Remote sensing still often lies to you,  precisely because too many inferences have to be made.

But if easily recoverable ice exists,  then LOX-LH2 should be producible powered by a mix of solar and nuclear electricity (remember,  the day/night cycle is a month long!).  All it takes is electricity to do purification,  electrolysis,  and liquifaction.

If you have a single stage,  reusable lander rigged to use LOX-LH2 propellant,  you can use it to ferry some of that same LOX-LH2 propellant to orbit.  You refuel the lander on the surface.  It uses less propellant to launch cargo into lunar orbit and return,  done that way.

That being the case,  what purpose does a lunar space station serve?  Why build 2 propellant production plants?  Just use the one you need on the surface,  and ship product to orbit for transit elsewhere.

That approach makes more sense to me,  because you get the same effect while building less infrastructure. 

Now,  if you intend to use LOX-LCH4 propellants,  you will have to ship carbon from Earth or elsewhere,  and it needs to be pure,  and in powder form.  There is no easily recoverable carbon on the moon. 

Extremely dilute concentrations of anything are not easily-recovered resources.  That is why sea water has never been "mined" for the uranium that is there,  in extremely dilute concentrations.

GW

#23 Re: Human missions » Why Artemis is “better” than Apollo. » 2025-12-03 10:19:19

Copied from my post 26 above:

"NASA needs somebody else to respond with a different idea from either of these two.  But,  with the landing scheduled for only 1 or 2 years way,  there is no reality to NASA's plans,  either!  The Apollo LM took 4 years paper to flight,  and that was a crash program where money was secondary.  This is not.  The downselect was driven by insufficient money in the first place.  This lander cannot be done "from scratch" in 1-2 years,  even if it were a crash program."

Now see this from the Wednesday 12-3-2025 issue of AIAA's "Daily Launch" email newsletter:

"Ars Technica

NASA seeks a “warm backup” option as key decision on lunar rover nears

By the time the second group of NASA astronauts reach the Moon later this decade, the space agency would like to have a lunar rover waiting for them. But as the space agency nears a key selection, some government officials are seeking an insurance policy of sorts to increase the program’s chance of success.

----- 

My take on it:

Told ya so,  didn't I?  No reality at all to the Artemis plan and schedule.

They announced a landing date without a working prototype for a lunar lander,  and no fruitful effort at all toward a rover.  What kind of "planning" is that?  What kind of "management" is that?  None,  I would say!

And just how are they going to address these needs while laying off 25-50% of their workforces?  Answer -- they cannot!

All of which proves my point here:  the NASA we knew and loved no longer exists. 

It was slowly being destroyed by Congress using it for porkbarrel politics the last several decades,  and here in the last several months,  the destruction has been sped up enormously by this administration,  which is demonstrably anti-science,  and also apparently only interested in warfighting technologies it can purchase more over-the-counter than by developing them. 

GW

#24 Re: Home improvements » Solar Installation in McGregor, Texas August 2024 Start » 2025-12-02 16:02:34

Just an update on my solar installation.  It's been 16 months since installation.  On average,  my electric bills are around a third to a quarter of what they once were (it varies with season and weather).  The meters run backwards on most bright sunshiny days.  Which means I am selling power back to the electric coop (we have a rural electric coop for service out here in the boondocks).  Our coop has lower prices than the big utilities,  and its service has far fewer outages.  Typical of rural coops vs the big utility companies,  actually.

The installation that can sell power back like that has to meet the technical requirements of the coop.  That's why I cannot be stand-alone on my solar with a battery.  They do not allow that kind of connection.  Their sine wave is what my system detects in order to phase-in correctly.  It does not operate without that signal.

GW

#25 Re: Human missions » Boeing Starliner OFT-2 » 2025-12-02 15:50:21

Last I heard,  NASA recently reduced the remaining contracted Starliner flights from 6 to 4,  with 1 of the 4 to be the unmanned qualification flight Boeing still must fly.  That's down to 3 paid crew delivery flights. 

We will soon see if Boeing will fulfill its side of the contract,  or just abandon the program to cut their losses.  They will never make any profit off of this vehicle from their NASA contract. There might,  or might not,  be other customers for Starliner,  though.  We will see.

GW

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