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#1 Re: Not So Free Chat » Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers: » Today 15:25:31

tahanson43206 wrote:

I would note that the world taken as a whole does NOT appear to be in population crisis!

Oh, there's so much there. First, absolutely every developed country now has a major problem: birth rate. You may think a couple needs 2 children to replace themselves, but due to child deaths and various technical factors, it must be 2.1. And since families can have various forms these days, it's presented as 2.1 babies born per woman during her entire life, on average. That includes all women, including single women and lesbians. If the number is above that, the country has a growing population. If the number is below, it's a shrinking population. But the population won't shrink right away; at first it results in increasing number of retired people with decreasing number of working people. With fewer working people to pay taxes, that increases the burden per person to support pensions and healthcare for retired people. And including working people needed to maintain infrastructure: roads, electrical power grids, power generating stations, water source, water mains, sewers and sewage processing. Plumbers, electricians, and roofers to maintain houses. Farmers to produce food, grocers to deliver the food to your local store. China manufactures stuff; who's going to work in the factory?

Every developed country has significantly increased immigration to compensate for the birth rate crisis. Former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said he believed developed countries would compete for immigrants, so he wanted to attract as many immigrants as possible. He brought in too many; we don't have enough housing for them all. This has caused price of housing to skyrocket. Other countries have experienced other problems from immigration, but again realize immigration is to compensate for the birth rate crisis. And yes, it is a crisis.

Many third world countries still have a positive population growth, so can provide people. But their birth rate is falling as well. They want a rich lifestyle like modern western countries like Canada and USA. As they adopt our lifestyle, they're also adopting our problems. Total population of the world has peaked. At this point the population shrinkage of developed countries is offset by population growth of third world countries, resulting zero total population growth. But it will result in world-wide population shrinkage soon.

Blaming population growth on "amorous instincts of males" is wrong and offensive. Females have the same drive and same instinct for sex. The current crisis in the US is marriages breaking up due to females committing adultery. Women have always had as much of a sex drive as men, but since introduction of birth control pills in 1961, females no longer have consequences of infidelity. This has resulted in crashing birth rate, and increasing rate of female infidelity. In the 21st century, female infidelity is a plague.

A book written by experts:
Amazon books: Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline

#2 Re: Human missions » Mars Ascent Vehicle - LOX/LCO vs LOX/LCH4 » Today 14:10:48

kbd512 wrote:

If the mass of the required ISPP equipment exceeds the mass of a fully fueled MAV using traditional storable propellants like NTO/MMH, then you've saved nothing.

I'm using numbers for the ERV from Mars Direct. The ISPP equipment is lower mass than traditional storable propellants. If your starting point has higher mass, then your starting point is wrong.

Methods of reducing mass vs the ERV from Mars Direct:
- no life support, astronauts stay in their suits and use PLSS backpacks of their suits.
- heat shield, parachute, high-temperature hull of re-entry vehicle is not landed on Mars, so not included in the MAV
- equipment for water landing on Earth also not included in MAV, left in orbit. Same with emergency food and other emergency equipment for landing on Earth.
- 2025 computer equipment, not 1989/'90

#3 Re: Not So Free Chat » Peter Zeihan again: and also other thinkers: » Today 14:04:16

He also said the pain could have been greatly alleviated if coordinated with Canada and Mexico. In other words, apply surgical targeted tariffs on China and overseas locations where manufacturing has located, do not attack the North America free-trade zone.

#5 Re: Human missions » Mars Ascent Vehicle - LOX/LCO vs LOX/LCH4 » Today 08:32:41

Use of ISPP is to reduce launch mass. 1 tonne of liquid hydrogen becomes 18 tonnes of liquid methane/LOX. That's from Mars Direct. If the MAV is for the purpose of the architecture that I posted, then the MAV must be modified from NASA Design Reference Mission. The MAV does not require life support, because astronauts can live in their spacesuit for the brief journey from Mars surface to the ITV waiting in Mars orbit. We could debate whether the cabin requires pressurization at all. However, NASA DRM brought return propellant for the ITV all the way from Earth. My design uses the MAV as the TEI stage, which enables ISPP for the entire return to Earth.

I find it highly unlikely that LOX/LCO has Isp as high as you posted. I'll look it up in "The Case for Mars".

#6 Re: Human missions » Mars Ascent Vehicle - LOX/LCO vs LOX/LCH4 » Yesterday 19:36:00

A mission the size of Mars Exploration Rover (Spirit/Opportunity), could be easily launched. I consider that low risk. The Canadian proposal for a rover would include sample handling and multiple instruments on its back to analyze ice cores. Analysis by ESA claim the pack ice is 45 metres deep, based on craters that punch all the way through to ground beneath the ice. 45m = 147.64 feet, round to 2 significant digits.

The ice is believed to have formed when the volcano Elysium Mons erupted between 2 million and 20 million years ago; most likely 7 to 10 million years ago. Frozen from the ocean floor (frozen wet mud) melted, releasing water. Since the ocean evaporated, it wouldn't just be ocean water, it would be extra salty. The water ran down hill to a low area and pooled. The large lake then froze. When a body of water that large freezes, it forces out salt, creating fresh water ice on top. Eventually the water is so super-saturated that it can't force out the salt, and salt water freezes. So the ice should have differing salinity: fresher on top, salter deeper down.

It would have been muddy water, such as lake water. Could it have sat motionless long enough for silt to settle out, or would it be turbid? That raises the question whether mud is dissolved in the ice. Is it similar to current Mars surface, or more like the ancient Mars ocean floor? Or a mix of both?

Again, a rover with a core drill could answer these questions.

#7 Re: Human missions » Mars Ascent Vehicle - LOX/LCO vs LOX/LCH4 » Yesterday 18:44:43

kbd512 wrote:

We should locate a good water supply first, and then figure out how much equipment and money is required to convert that water into rocket fuel.

I've said before, we need to send a rover with a multi-segment core drill to the frozen pack-ice of Cerberus Fossae. That's 5° north of the Mars equator, and in the dried-up ocean basin so low-altitude. Altitude is important for additional atmosphere for radiation shielding. In a vast region known as Elysium Planitia. About 20° latitude or about 1,000km south of the volcano Elysium Mons. Maybe 1,200km, but considering the pack ice is 800km x 900km, it depends where you measure from.

Back in 2005, the head of the Canadian Space Agency proposed a rover about the size of Spirit/Opportunity with such a drill. They developed a prototype drill, dry drilling using an electric motor. Each segment 1 metre long. So a rover the size of Curiosity isn't necessary. I could cite the work by the European Space Agency that has a lot of evidence to conclude it's ice, but we need "ground truth".

#8 Re: Human missions » Mars Ascent Vehicle - LOX/LCO vs LOX/LCH4 » Yesterday 14:58:49

Spectrolab, a Boeing company. Space Photovoltaics
Datasheet XTE-SF: 32.2% XTE-SF (Standard Fluence)

  • Based on 20+ years of heritage 3J devices

  • Fully qualified under AIAA-S111 2014 Standard

  • Targeting LEO to GEO mission fluences

  • Best in class 32.2% BOL efficiency

  • 27.9% EOL, 1E15 1MeV electron**

  • Multiple Sizes Available (<85-cm2)

  • Currently in Production

#9 Re: Human missions » Mars Ascent Vehicle - LOX/LCO vs LOX/LCH4 » Yesterday 08:58:11

My PDF player displays correctly. For NASA DRM v5 Addendum, page 1 starts with the Introduction, the first page of text. Not included in page numbers are the cover page, NASA program office info, second cover page, forward, table of contents, index of figures, index of tables. The table of contents and indexes have Roman numerals. However, the PDF player simply numbers pages from the start, so document page 1 is PDF page 21.

#10 Re: Not So Free Chat » Chat » 2025-05-13 17:41:33

Right now it's 32°C (90°F).  Prediction for Friday night is 2°C (35.6°F) and Saturday night 1°C (33.8°F). Both a mix of rain and snow. All 4 seasons in one week?

One environmental scientist in the late 1990s told me weather was extreme, chaotic, and unpredictable for centuries, millennia. For some unknown reason in the 20th century it was mild, consistent, and predictable. That predictability allowed them to develop the science of weather prediction. Back then they were trying to figure out why.

Is it extreme today? Or was the 20th century unusual?

#11 Re: Human missions » Mars 2025 » 2025-05-12 21:29:59

Note one of the basic principles: Don't land your return vehicle on the planet!!! NASA tried to design Apollo to land the CSM on the surface of the Moon. That's why the main engine for the Service Module was so big. Problem was the stack was so heavy, even a Saturn V couldn't launch it. They tried splitting it into several stages, but that only works so far. They tried to design an even larger launch vehicle, and came up with a few proposals. While they were kicking around the idea of an even more giant rocket, one engineer from one American supplier recommended a "mother ship" left in lunar orbit, and a "Lunar Excursion Module" (LEM). The Command Module that North American was already developing was kept, and they shrunk the multi-stage landing and launch stack into the Service Module. The name for LEM was shortened to "Lunar Module" (LM) but still pronounced LEM.

My architecture leaves the return vehicle in Mars orbit, including the return capsule. So this is applying Apollo principles to Mars Direct.

#12 Re: Human missions » Mars 2025 » 2025-05-12 19:14:42

Let's see. Shuttle could lift 28.8 tonnes to LEO or 16 tonnes to ISS. So can Starship lift 150/28.8*16= 83.3 t to ISS? Rendezvous and docking by onboard RCS thrusters on the hab. Dock at APAS or berth at CBM?

#13 Re: Human missions » Mars 2025 » 2025-05-12 18:30:37

Hmm. Starship fairing diameter is 9 metre, outside diameter. But inside is 8.00 metre. That means the hab must be reduced to 8.0 metre to fit. Starship specs say it could lift "up to" 150 metric tonnes to LEO, but that's 185km altitude. ISS orbits at 400km ±10km. What is Starship lift capacity to ISS? Would the TMI stage have to be launched separately? Again, this is assuming all Starship launches are fully reusable.

#14 Human missions » Mars 2025 » 2025-05-12 18:21:56

RobertDyck
Replies: 3

Yet another Mars architecture. This time using equipment currently available. The problem with SpaceX is they want to send Starship on the first mission. That's one big rocket, requiring a hell of a lot of propellant to get to Mars. And a hell of a lot to get back. And issues landing on the surface, with unprepared ground. Etc, etc.

Simple solution: use Starship has a launch vehicle to deliver Mars Direct to LEO, then just MD. However, I want a bit more. Instead of return capsule being basically an Apollo capsule with 6 month zero-g return, I want something more substantial.

Parts: Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) instead of Earth Return Vehicle (ERV). The MAV designed to launch from Mars surface to Mars orbit, then act as the Trans-Earth Injection stage (TEI) to return to Earth. Using the MAV as the TEI stage allows ISPP for all return propellant. Since the MAV will only be occupied very briefly, one option is no life support, astronauts stay in spacesuits until they dock with the Interplanetary Transit Vehicle (ITV).

Habitat: basic tuna-can Mars Direct hab. 8.4 metre outside diameter, tiny cabins for crew, recycling life support for oxygen and water. Life support based on equipment demonstrated on the US side of ISS. However, the hab will have 1 deck. The lower deck will be rocket engines for landing on Mars, propellant tanks to feed landing rockets, RCS thrusters for transit from Earth to Mars, propellant tanks for RCS, solar panels, life support equipment, batteries (surface of Mars has night), airlock, stairway to upper deck, and storage chamber for a Mars rover. The storage chamber will be the size of a single-car garage, with a garage door that folds down to form a ramp. (To drive the vehicle out.) Also in the storage chamber will be surface science instruments, an inflatable greenhouse, soil trays and gardening equipment for the greenhouse. The inflatable greenhouse will be PCTFE film, with hold-down straps that tie to tent pegs. A separate pressure door from the landing at the base of the stairs to a polymer film tunnel to the greenhouse, with deployable staircase stored in the "garage" during transit. Once on Mars, everything in the "garage" will be deployed, never to come in again. This allows the "garage" to be used as a workshop, and a portion of it used for EVA prep once on Mars.

Once deployed, the greenhouse will be the width of a double-car garage, and twice as long. So 4 times the floor area of the "garage" on the lower deck of the hab.

Interplanetary Transit Vehicle (ITV). This is a name from the NASA Design Reference Mission aka Mars Semi-Direct. But it will work differently. The ITV will be sent with astronauts for out-bound transit. The stack will use rotation for artificial gravity during transit, using the spent upper stage as a counter-weight. Upon approach to Mars the cable will be cut, releasing the spent stage to fly off into space. The hab-ITV stack will de-spin, and aerocapture into Mars orbit. ITV will use a fabric heat shield made of Nextel-440, an artificial synthetic ceramic fibre that NASA has already identified as appropriate for a heat shield. The hab will use a carbon fibre fabric heat shield. NASA has been working on the carbon fibre heat shield since the 1980s, and this was included in the original Mars Direct: Adaptable Deployable Entry Placement Technology (ADEPT). The ITV itself will be one deck, designed for artificial gravity, and smaller than the hab. I'm thinking 6.6 metre outside diameter, the diameter the 3rd stage of Saturn V, and Skylab less it's pop-out micrometeorite shield. ITV would have recycling life support for return to Earth.

One advantage to this is the hab has food for transit to Mars and surface stay on Mars, while the ITV has food for transit back to Earth. In case of free return, astronauts will have access to all this food. They will also have access to ITV life support in case something goes wrong with the hab. And for out-bound transit, both the upper deck of the hab plus the ITV provides more living space.

Upon return to Earth, the MAV rendezvous with the ITV, and pushes it into a trans-Earth trajectory. Once in transit to Earth, the MAV is treated as a spent stage, used as counterweight for rotation. Again, connected via cable. Upon approach to Earth, the cable holding the MAV will be cut, allowing the MAV to fly off into space. The ITV will de-spin, prepare for aerocapture into Earth orbit. The ITV will use it's reusable fabric heat shield for aerocapture into Earth orbit. Then rendezvous with a space station (ISS), where it will dock and wait for the next mission to Mars. The ITV will be multi-mission.

As a safety feature, the MAV will have a Dragon capsule attached. Astronauts will load Mars samples into Dragon, and get into Dragon before aerocapture. If aerocapture into Earth orbit fails, then they will return via Dragon. Once docked to ISS, still use Dragon to return to Earth.

Launches:

  • Starship: MAV directly to Mars. With ISPP equipment.

  • Starship: hab to ISS, with landing propellant loaded, and TMI stage also loaded

  • Starship: ITV to ISS

  • Falcon 9: Dragon to ISS with crew

Second and subsequent missions will not have to lift the ITV, because it will be waiting at ISS.

We could get fancy and lift the hab with ITV for the first mission, and TMI stage on a separate launch. Second and subsequent missions would lift hab with TMI stage in one Starship launch.

If ISS is de-orbited by the time of the Mars mission, will there be a commercial space station where we can stage Mars missions?

Life support equipment was built by Hamilton Sundstrand. I would like to test it further on ISS before a Mars mission, but the idea is to use exactly the same equipment. Because it's proven in space. One test is to operate ISS with crew for the full duration of a Mars mission without any resupply from Earth.

I would prefer a robotic sample return mission to Mars to demonstrate ISPP before the first crew mission. Again, prove equipment. This would have to be designated a technology demonstrator to ensure nobody tries to remove ISPP this time.

For Mars Direct, the TMI stage was going to use a J-2 engine. In 1989/'90 that would have been J-2S, the updated version developed in 1979. In the early 2000s, J-2X was developed. However, manufacturing equipment for J-2X was sold off in September 2022, effectively cancelling this engine. An alternative is a pair of BE-3U engines, each with roughly half the thrust of J-2X, but also using liquid hydrogen/LOX. Manufactured by Blue Origin, used for the upper stage of New Glenn.

The MAV will require a liquid methane/LOX engine that can be throttled. Used for Mars ascent, and TEI.

Advantages over Mars Direct: food and life support for return are included in out-bound transit, so safer for free return. Additional risk: requires both a surface rendezvous and orbital rendezvous. However, orbital rendezvous has been done so many times for ISS that I do not consider that a risk. That is now a mature technology.

Also note: ballistic coefficient is an issue for larger entry vehicles. Surface area of heat shield increases as the square of diameter, but mass increases as a cube of diameter. So there's the problem that slowing sufficiently to deploy a parachute would descend too far into the atmosphere. Solution is something from Mars Direct: ADEPT. The carbon fibre fabric heat shield that opens like an umbrella. It increases surface area so the surface-to-mass ratio is the same as Curiosity rover or Perseverance rover. Parachutes will have to be larger, proportional to mass. But this is the same landing method. Instead of "sky crane" landing, the hab will land with built-in rocket engines like the Apollo LM. But instead of just one engine, it will have several smaller ones. The sky crane used several smaller ones. Viking landed with built-in rocket engines, and also used several smaller ones.

This would have to be a NASA mission instead of a purely commercial mission if we want to use a nuclear reactor for the MAV to produce return propellant. Access to nuclear technology is highly regulated. I would suggest using the SAFE-400 reactor. Mars Direct used the SP-100 reactor, because it was under development at that time. Mars Direct was first presented to NASA in June 1990, development of SP-100 was complete in 1992. SAFE-400 was developed by exactly the same team of engineers, produces exactly the same amount of electricity, but lower launch mass, and completed in 2007. So just use the new one.

Another option: instead of a robotic truck to carry the reactor to a crater away from the MAV, just attach the same wheels, drive motors, and navigation system as Curiosity rover, but attached directly to the reactor. This makes the reactor self-driving, and reduces launch mass, but means there's no robotic truck.

#15 Re: Not So Free Chat » Chat » 2025-05-12 16:38:17

35°C (95°F) and May 12? It's nice, but normally we get this weather in July. My house doesn't have an air conditioner. Built in 1907, before air conditioners existed. Haven't installed a window air conditioner because normally it's only hot enough to justify one about 2 weeks per year. But May 12?

#17 Re: Not So Free Chat » Politics » 2025-05-09 19:17:21

I would like advice by Americans on this website. This article is shocking! The "Brown Shirts" are arresting members of government.
Gothamist: 'All so opaque' — Newark Mayor Baraka released after chaotic arrest at ICE center protest

#18 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » MIT (Money, Investment and Taxation) - Fiscal Planning for Mars » 2025-05-06 14:50:17

Ethereum is a cryptocurrency. It's value over time. Do you really want your savings in Ethereum? How do you run a business when value of currency fluctuates this much?
Ethereum-ETH-USD-price-history-up-until-July-2023-C-Statista-2023.png

#19 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » MIT (Money, Investment and Taxation) - Fiscal Planning for Mars » 2025-05-06 14:44:16

Hi Tom; thank you for responding.

I tried to explain the issues. True, money does not have to be based on gold. Gold was the first metal that humans learned to make, even before copper. Gold does not corrode, and gold is rare. Copper was the second metal, it was discovered as a byproduct of mining and processing gold.

I did say that whatever the basis for currency, it must be physical, must be rare, and must be durable. It cannot be consumed like food. An alternative to gold is silver, because silver oxide will be used on Mars as a regenerable CO2 sorbent for life support. Something required for life support will definitely be valuable on Mars. Basing the economy on a rare earth metal like neodymium would be different. Today on Earth, it's value is just under $90.80/kg (90.80¢ per gram) in US dollars. Neodymium is used to make rare earth magnets.

You said you liked the idea of digital money. I said today banks use debit cards to access bank accounts. I get paid by direct deposit, and pay utility bills by online banking. We can do that. But money must be based on something, not just a fiat currency. And any form of digital currency that isn't based on anything physical is fiat. I already explained the problems.

#21 Re: Martian Politics and Economy » MIT (Money, Investment and Taxation) - Fiscal Planning for Mars » 2025-05-06 11:29:08

In the "Corporate Government" discussion thread (also Martian Politics and Economy) I recommended money be a combination of bank accounts accessible by debit cards and electronic banking, and coins made of precious metals. No paper money. The only response has been tahanson43206 claiming paper money is "more advanced" than coins, and kbd512 giving an excuse that the US uses a "mixed economy" so basing the US dollar on gold is obsolete. To be blunt, both demonstrate lack of understanding of the problem that I am trying to solve. Before I start, let's be clear, since Richard Nixon took the US dollar off the gold standard, the US dollar is now a fiat currency. It's not based on a "mix" of anything, it just has value because the government claims it does.

As mentioned in the last post, fiat currency is an addictive drug for government. Highly addictive. It allows them to just print money, use that to pay bills. When government borrows money, it drives interest rates up: supply-and-demand. Government loans also take money out of the capital market, reducing capital available for business. When government prints money out of nothing, value of currency will fall until the total of all currency in circulation after adjusting for inflation is equal to what it was before printing the money. Reducing the value of money appears as inflation. It means any savings you have, whether to buy a house or retirement or any other purpose, has just been reduced by that amount. This is highly damaging to the economy. As the economy grows and the economy is producing more goods, total amount of currency in circulation must increase accordingly. It's up to the central bank (in the US it's the Federal Reserve aka "The Fed") must gauge that, and increase money in circulation accordingly. If too little money is in circulation, it dampens the economy. If too much, it causes inflation, which is really reduction in the value of currency.

Government only has 2 other options to pay the bills: taxation, or reduce spending. This means government must always operate will less money than they would like. Always. Anyone who runs a business knows they must make maximum benefit from limited resources. Anyone who owns a house knows the same.

Taxation has problems as well. Every time taxes increase, it reduces the economy. To put it bluntly, tax is theft. And most of those looking to move to Mars will look at taxation that way. So if you want to argue that high taxes are good, then you don't have the "right stuff" for Mars. Mars will be a frontier planet for a very long time. Any frontier must emphasize self-reliance. If you are reliant upon the government, whether for hand-outs or to manage your finances because you can't manage them yourself, then you don't belong in a frontier. Mars is the ultimate DIY (Do It Yourself).

Back to finances: when government borrows money, it must pay interest. Some financial instruments use fancy words for "interest", but to make things simple, US Treasury Bonds use the word "interest". The more the government owes, the more of the government's budget must go to pay interest. In Canada, by the late 1980s and early 1990s, before the election of October 1993, 30% of the government budget went to interest. That's money that could have been used for social programs or tax cuts. And taxation in Canada had risen so much that any further increase in tax rates would reduce the economy so much that total revenue to the government would actually reduce. When Ronald Regan was President in the US, he thought the US was also at that point, so a tax cut could actually increase revenue to the government. Well, taxation in the US was high, but not quite that high. However, in Canada it was. Ronald Regan was president January 1981 - January 1989, while Brian Mulroney was Prime Minister of Canada September 1984 - June 1993, so there was overlap but not exactly the same time.

The goal of using a physical standard for currency is if individuals lose confidence in the banking system, they can withdraw their money has hard currency. Something they can put in a wallet or purse. If government wants to simply print money, then they have to mint coins. Those coins are made of precious metal, so the mint must purchase enough precious metal to make those coins. If value of currency drops so that coins have more value in their metal than face value of the currency, then minting coins is a net loss for the government. This is a strong dis-incentive for printing so much money that it drives down the value of currency. This prevents them from minting coins until the value of currency is equal or more than the metals they are made from.

I guess I have to use the term "mint" for coins, because it isn't paper money. Paper money is printed.

As I've said before, this is a very very old problem. Ancient Rome used silver coins called denarius starting 269 or 268 BC. They had a problem with government debasing coins. That means reducing the silver content, blending with cheaper base metals. Today, US dimes have no silver at all. Babylonian coins were silver or gold. Sumerians used shell money 3500 BC - 2000 BC. The earliest metal coin dates from 2150 BC under the Akkad Empire. The Akkad ruled Mesopotamia after the Sumerians, before the Babylonians. The word shekel was used for coins in that area for a long time. The word is derives from the Akkadian šiqlu or siqlu, a unit of weight equivalent to the Sumerian gin2. An Akkad mina was divided into 60 shekels, both units of weight for gold or silver.

#22 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2025-05-04 18:19:20

I'm sure, but it doesn't help when your tape recorder is on a rocket falling in pieces over Caribbean after range safety hit the self destruct. If it exploded on its own, same thing.

As for not letting an engine with POGO out the door: that's one reason why SpaceX needs you.

#23 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2025-05-04 14:46:48

SpaceX uses digital to transmit telemetry. You can detect harmonics with digital, but sample frequency must be at least 4 times the signal. If you have a signal 1MHz or less, then sample at 4MHz. If signal is a perfect harmonic of the sample, you will capture amplitude of the peak, neutral, trough, neutral, repeat. Ideal is 10 times the signal. If the sample is not a perfect harmonic, then sample points will drift along the wave phase.

There's software to analyze digital signals for repeating patterns. For one, there's the software SETI uses. But I doubt anything that fancy is even necessary. A Fourier analysis should do it. There are lots of software packages to do it. There should be engineering software to look for harmonic signals in a digital sample.

#24 Re: Not So Free Chat » Politics » 2025-05-01 11:32:45

Yuri Pilipishin wrote:

To solve this problem, we should invent something to overcome the fear of nuclear war.

Russia will never use nuclear weapons. Several reasons. First, Russia wants Ukraine. They can't use Ukraine if it's contaminated with radiation. Second, wind would blow radioactive fallout over Russia. Remember Chernobyl.

When Joe Biden was president, he would not allow American weapons to be used to attack Putin. The reason was simple: if Putin ever used any form of nuclear weapon on Ukraine, the US military would assassinate Putin. During the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, the US would use a UAV to launch a Hellfire air-to-ground missile on a car with a leader they wanted to kill. They would probably do that to Putin. They wouldn't give weapons to Ukraine and ask Ukraine to do it, the US would do it themselves. So the only thing keeping Putin alive is not using nuclear weapons. And to be clear: the US would not attack Russia or the Russian military, just Putin personally. The entire time Biden was president, US intelligence kept continuous track of exactly where Putin was at all times, specifically so they could do this. And Biden let Putin know it.

If Russia were to attack any NATO country, the result would be Article 5 of the NATO charter, which states an attack on one is an attack on all. That means all NATO countries would declare war. Expect NATO forces on Russian soil. Yes, that means NATO forces occupying the Kremlin.

The YouTube channel "Russian Media Monitor" often has clips from the show with Vladimir Solovyov and Olga Skabeyeva. The YouTube channel adds English subtitles. So we see some of the extreme rhetoric they say to a Russian audience. A few times a guest has suggested nuking Britain, the entire island. But realize the UK has nuclear weapons, including 4 submarines with ballistic missiles. The submarines are capable of carrying a maximum of 192 nuclear warheads, but according to Wikipedia and documents cited, the submarines carried 120 warheads. As of 16 March 2021, the UK changed its policy to no longer publish how many nuclear warheads they have deployed. However, realize the UK maintains a policy that if the UK is destroyed by a war, the submarines are ordered to launch everything they have in a massive retaliation. So the attack these Russian pundits are advocating on Russian TV cannot happen, because it would be suicide for Russia.

#25 Re: Not So Free Chat » Politics » 2025-04-30 17:12:05

Calliban wrote:

Canadian Liberal Party wins election.

sideshow-bob.gif

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