Announcement

Announcement: This forum is accepting new registrations via email. Please see Recruiting Topic for additional information. Write newmarsmember[at_symbol]gmail.com.
  1. Index
  2. » Search
  3. » Posts by RobertDyck

#1 Re: Not So Free Chat » Canada / U.S. relations » Yesterday 14:04:49

As I have said before. Canada doesn't want to fight. Canada and the US are brothers. We may have disagreements, our countries may argue like brothers, but in the end we are brothers. Immediately after 9/11, Canada sent JTF2 into Afghanistan. JTF2 is Canada's most elite army unit; more elite than the US army Delta Force, second only to US Navy Seals. When aircraft were required to land quickly after skies were closed, Canada welcomed US travellers. The small town of Gander is the farthest east of any airport in North America, the last point before crossing the Atlantic ocean. Several US planes landed there. More passengers than all hotels could accommodate. So Canadian citizens allowed travellers to stay in their homes. Treated them as house guests. America aircraft landed in other locations across Canada, but large cities were better able to accommodate travellers. When hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, the only country to provide aid was Canada. Canada sent navy ships, used helicopters to rescue people off the roof of their houses. Provided fresh drinking water, and even rations.

Our countries are brothers. Why does Donald Trump want to start a fight with Canada? It's stupid.

#2 Re: Not So Free Chat » Canada / U.S. relations » Yesterday 13:36:33

Void wrote:

This was never taught to me 1812 was mentioned and perhaps a failed attempt to "Liberate" Quebec.

The war of 1812 was not anything about Quebec. General Benedict Arnold led American soldiers to attack Quebec City in the winter of 1775, just half a year before signing the Declaration of Independence. Benedict Arnold screwed it up. He was captured. Response from the 3 hold-out colonies was to be even more adamant that they will not join the US.

History taught in Canada is that US President Madison ordered invasion of Canada because the US wanted to rule the entire North American continent. President Madison wrote that invading Canada was "simply a matter of marching"; he thought it would be that easy. He was wrong. When American soldiers faced Canadian soldiers, they found they may have been facing themselves. Same skill, same weapons, same tactics, same determination to defend their homes. Same same same everything. Americans were not expecting that. Canadian soldiers held off the American attack until British soldiers arrived by sea from Britain. The British just finished fighting a war with Napoleon. At the time they thought the war with Napoleon was over; history tells us it started up again. But when British soldiers arrived in North America, they were veterans from fighting Napoleon's troops. British counter-attacked deep within the US while Canadian soldiers defended Canada. Together, they defeated the US. Yes, I said defeated. President Madison said the goal of the war was to annex Canada. But Canada remained free, and the US did not take any territory from Canada. Western territories were "shared" due to disputed claims. After the war, a clear border was established. In 1814, the last year of the war, Canadian troops did capture a small town on the US side: Detroit. Yes, that Detroit. It's a major city now, but in 1814 it was small town. As part of the peace treaty, the British ordered Canada to give it back. So neither side kept any territory of the other.

I have seen a couple YouTube videos about the war of 1812 from the American perspective. The US did have legitimate grievances against Britain, but rather than address the issues with Britain, President Madison chose to invade Canada. It didn't go well.

The US teaches children in school that Britain started the war of 1812. That's a lie. So you're claiming Canadian students are "programmed" but truth is US students are programmed. US students are also told that the US "won" the war of 1812. That's also a lie. The US started the war, and the US did not accomplish anything. The US lost. But the government doesn't want to admit that.

#3 Re: Not So Free Chat » Canada / U.S. relations » 2026-10-11 18:10:29

Elon Musk was born and raised in South Africa. He has definite South Africa attitudes and values. His mother Maye Musk was born in Canada in April 1948, her parents left Canada in 1950 when she was 2 years old. They moved to South Africa in 1952. Elon left South Africa at age 17 in 1989 because South Africa had mandatory military service aka The Draft. He started college at age 19 at Queen's University in Kingston, Ontario. In 1992 transferred to University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, age 21. Completed his bachelor degree in 1997, then moved to California. So he lived in Canada for 4 years in his late teens, and his mother left Canada age 2. Does that make him Canadian?

Canada/US relations have oscillated throughout history. Several times certain US politicians have attempted to use economic coersion to force Canada to join the US. This is not the first time. I could write a long-post with history, but you would find it boring. Let's just say others have tried to do what Donald Trump is doing. Every time, relations become strained, Canadians pull together to say we will never join the US. One of those times, not the first or the last, was in 1866, right after the US Civil War ended. Canada's response was to form a country. Canada became a country on July 1, 1867.

Yes, Canada has a problem with Quebec. The separatists in Quebec are a minority, but a loud-mouth minority. In October 1970, the FLQ attempted to use terrorism to force separation. They murdered a Quebec provincial minister. And they were planning to use explosives to bring down the tallest office building in Montreal. Police caught them with the plans and the explosives. They were arrested before they could place the explosives. Look what happened to the World Trade Center on 9/11; that's what the FLQ wanted to do in Montreal in 1970. But after the Minister was murdered, the War Measures Act was activated. Police got aggressive. Arrested them before the building could be bombed.

Yes, we have a problem that Alberta oil is taxed, and "equalization payments" are going to Quebec but not Alberta. That's an internal problem in Canada. After the Quebec referendum of 1995, the federal government decided to basically bribe Quebec to stay. But it's 31 years, it's got to stop. Equalization is supposed to be for young provinces that don't yet have the resources to provided the same services  as the rest of Canada. But the two big provinces when Canada was founded were Ontario and Quebec. They were still big when I was a child in the 1960s and '70s. But after the first referendum in 1980, many companies left Quebec. They left out of fear that Quebec would separate, so companies moved to other provinces to ensure they remain in Canada. That happened again during and after the second referendum in 1995. Quebec has no one but themselves to blame. They're still the 2nd largest province in population, after Ontario. There's no way anyone could justify equalization payments for any of the 4 largest provinces: Ontario, Quebec, BC, and Alberta. Quebec is getting the largest sum by far, and it's got to stop! Saskatchewan, Alberta, and BC get nothing, Ontario gets a tiny bit. Payments to Ontario also must stop. Those provinces can collect their own taxes to pay their own bills.

As for Globalism, Democracy and coordination is a good thing. But some corporations want to run the world. Corporate executives want national governments to become irrelevant. That isn't going to happen.

Elon Musk is someone who was born and grew up in South Africa. His mother grew up in South Africa. He moved to California.

#4 Re: Not So Free Chat » Canada / U.S. relations » 2026-10-10 03:24:54

Elon Musk posted on October 7: "Quebec should separate."
A later post that same day: "They would be better off.
Alberta and Saskatchewan should separate too."

Scott Moe, Premier of Saskatchewan responded: "No"

I admire that Elon founded SpaceX, but this is interfering in matters he does not understand. He will make a lot of enemies.

#5 Re: Not So Free Chat » Chat » 2026-10-08 03:11:31

I need a generic technology thread. Or do I create a new thread?

Latest video by Felix of What About It: SpaceX Starship Flight 14 Lost Way More Parts Than We Thought!
Second half of the video mentions Elon Musk wants to build an AI data centre in space. Satellites with greater solar panel area than the International Space Station. Each satellite would house a few blades of circuits, each with multiple processors. Each satellite would also have a large radiator to use space itself for cooling. These satellites would be in polar orbit, so receive sunlight 24/7. And the orbits would adjust, precessing as Earth orbits the Sun. So the orbit would complete one complete precess rotation per year. This means it tracks the Sun so all satellites are in direct sunlight 24/7. Satellites would communicate with Starlink, not direct communication with Earth.

I think this is dumb. Launching such a satellite requires a lot of money. Even with reduces launch cost of Starship. Service is not possible. When (not if) processors fail, they cannot be replaced. In space, the electronics must be hardened to withstand space radiation. Not necessary on Earth. Building a data centre on Earth appears a much MUCH more practical design.

One issue with a data centre on Earth, is cooling. These data centres have been designed to use evaporative cooling. That is, cooled with air conditioners. Like any air conditioner, there are two parts. The evaporator inside the building, where a coolant such as freon evaporates from liquid to gas absorbing heat as it does so. The other part is outside: the condenser. There the gas condenses to a liquid, releasing heat as it does so. Pressure of coolant in the condenser is higher, causing it to increase in temperature due to thermodynamics. That releases the heat. Pressure of coolant in the evaporator inside the building is lower, causing cooling due to thermodynamics. But data centres do not consider this to be enough. Clean water is sprayed on the outside of the cooling fins of the condenser outside the building. This water sprayed on hot aluminum alloy fins will evaporate into the environment. As that water evaporates, it cools, taking heat away. This consumes a lot of water.

This is not necessary. It's a design for a dry hot environment like Arizona. Some place that has a flowing river, you can have river water flow across an aluminum alloy heat exchanger for the condenser. The freon or whatever coolant is used for the air conditioner is contained. Instead of spraying clean water on the fins, river water flows across the fins. River water need not be clean, it can be river water. The river water will be warmed, but not boil. This will warm the river, but it means clean potable water is not consumed. The river is not consumed, it is just warmed.

If there is no convenient river, then the data centre could be built on the shore of a lake. The lake water could be pumped across the aluminum alloy cooling fins. This would warm the lake water. Or coast of an ocean. Ocean water can be pumped across the cooling fins. Again, ocean water is not consumed, it is just warmed. Nuclear power plants have been doing this for decades. It's not new. A simple way of building a data centre without consuming water.

By the way, ammonia is a more efficient coolant than freon. The first refrigerators were built with ammonia. The problem was one woman was asleep in her bed when her house refrigerator developed a leak. While she was a sleep, her house filled with so much ammonia that it killed her. She died in her sleep. Freon is clear, colourless, odourless, and non-toxic. If there's a leak, it's not dangerous. A refrigerator using freon consumes a little more electricity than one using ammonia, but it won't kill you. Then the fear that freon will destroy the ozone layer. Freon was replaced by something even less efficient, but will not kill you, and will not destroy ozone. I don't know what they're using now. But expect a data centre will use ammonia. Ammonia will not destroy ozone, just ensure no one sleeps there.

#6 Re: Science, Technology, and Astronomy » Star Trek Force Field for Atmosphere Containment » 2026-10-08 02:44:02

Wikipedia: Plasma Window
The key to atmosphere containment is for the plasma to be viscous. At 12,000°K or higher, the plasma becomes viscous so it can hold air pressure. Development by Ady Hershcovitch at Brookhaven National Laboratory, patented in 1995. Later work by researchers used higher temperature. Because if something touches the plasma, that thing will be cooler than 12,000°K. That will cool the plasma. As soon as the plasma cools below that critical temperature, it is no longer viscous, so no longer able to hold air pressure. So researchers have been working with 14,000°K. That allows a drop up to 2,000°K without loosing pressure containment. The plasma can hold up to 1.5 atmospheres of pressure against hard vacuum.

I have been thinking there is an optimization to this. A core of that 14,000°K plasma to hold air pressure. Then layer a cooler plasma on either side, able to absorb and contain radiant heat (infra-red radiation). A layer outside that of still cooler plasma that can contain radiant heat. Ady Hershcovitch found the plasma window requires 20,000 watts per inch diameter. So if you want a plasma window able to seal the door for a shuttle bay, say 8 feet high, then that will require 8 x 12 x 20kW = 1,920 kilowatts = 1.92 megawatts. That's a hell of a lot of power! And all that power is radiant heat. If you were to stand in a shuttle bay beside that force field, you would be broiled alive.

The goal of the cooler plasma is two-fold: reduce power consumption requirement for the force field. And make the force field safe. You still won't be able to fly a shuttle craft through the force field. Any aluminum alloy would be melted as soon as it touches the 14,000°K highly viscous plasma. Any organic matter that touches it, such as a pilot, would be instantly incinerated.

For the sake of enjoying a TV show or movie, let's assume some future technology has found a way to create a hole through the plasma shield that conforms to the shuttle craft. A thin layer of cool plasma between the hull of the craft and the hot plasma. Air would escape through the cool plasma, but that means an out-rush of air as the shuttle craft passes through the force field. The closer the hot plasma is to the hull, the thinner the layer of cool plasma that allows air to escape. The smaller the air escape path, the less air is lost. With today's technology, forget it. We don't even know how to create a layer of cool plasma to contain the radiant heat. At all.

#7 Re: Not So Free Chat » Comment Box to moderators. » 2026-10-02 12:43:48

As the arctic thaws, more and more of the arctic will be ice free in summer. And for an ever longer period of time each summer. That will make all the resources of the arctic ocean accessible. And large ships can traverse the Northwest Passage.

For reference, here is a record of global temperature calculated from ice cores from Antarctica. Blue is the EPICA ice sheet, green is the Lake Vostok. Peak during the last interglacial roughly 125,000 years ago is 6°C above the pre-industrial temperature. 260,000 years ago was two interglacial periods ago; for some reason the interglacial was cut short so was shorter time and didn't reach the same peak as other interglacials. About 370,000 years ago was 3 interglacials ago; it reached a peak of 5°C above the pre-industrial temperature. They found an ice deposit even deeper, extending 800,000 years ago. There's an ice age roughly every 100,000 years. Roughly 80,000 years of ice age, and 20,000 years of interglacial. So the 800,000 year ice core records 8 ice ages and 8 interglacial periods. The long term trend is each peak is higher than the last. The point is just due to nature, the peak temperature will be warmer than today. Do not expect the peak to be limitied to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial temperature. More likely it will be 6°C, the same as the last interglacial period. Good news is that peak is not due for another 2,000 years. That does not mean it will happen all at once. It means slow but steady global warming for the next 2,000 years, with each summer setting new record highs.

During the last interglacial period, the north polar ice cap completely melted during the summer. At the warmest period. It will again.
(Image from Wikipedia. Click image for Wikipedia page.)
Ice_Age_Temperature.png?utm_source=en.wikipedia.org&utm_campaign=imageinfo&utm_content=thumbnail_unscaled

#8 Re: Not So Free Chat » Politics » 2026-09-30 14:13:37

Calliban, all the life support for the Large Ship could be used. An American carrier is big, has a reactor, a lot of crew to supply. But space on the ship is for combat equipment. No room for hydroponics or aquaponics. Doubt they would want to bother with vats to convert starch into sugar, or grow protein for artificial flour.

The US navy did investigate using Mars ISPP technology to make aircraft fuel. But it was a study only. They need to focus on things like making their linear magnetic catapult work reliably.

#9 Re: Not So Free Chat » Politics » 2026-09-30 13:33:28

YouTube: How US aircraft carriers resupply in the middle of the ocean (the hidden dangers will shock you)
Video of at sea resupply of USS Gerald R. Ford, the latest US aircraft carrier. Video is 9 months old. 14 minutes long. Narration is dramatic. Shows how to transfer a pallet at a time of supplies from a dedicated purpose-built US Navy supply ship to the carrier. Includes sending a fuel hose to transfer aircraft fuel for aircraft that operate off the ship. The Navy has been doing this for multiple decades. Again, there's no need for the carrier to sail to Diego Garcia.

Again, narration is overly dramatic. Doing this near the Strait of Hormuz would not require the ships moving at maximum speed. They could slow to a crawl. Just barely moving enough so the ships could manoeuvre, to maintain correct distance between ships.

#10 Re: Not So Free Chat » Politics » 2026-09-29 11:18:09

Quantity of food used on a US aircraft carrier per day:
1,600 pounds of meat, 350 pounds of lettuce, 160 gallons of milk, 30 cases of cereal, and 20,000 cups of coffee every single day.
A case of cereal weighs 12 to 18 pounds. 20 to 22 pounds of coffee grounds per thousand cups of coffee. One gallon milk weighs 8.34 pounds.
So 30 x 18 = 540 pounds cereal. 20 x 22 = 440 pounds coffee. 160 x 8.34 = 1334.4 pounds.
1,600 + 350 + 1334.4 + 540 + 440 = 4264.4 pounds. So 1 week provisions would weigh 29850.8 pounds. Round that off to 30,000 pounds. A C-2 Greyhound can carry 10,000 pounds cargo. So this means 3 trips per week. Each ship carries 2 such aircraft.
Yahoo: The Staggering Amount Of Food American Aircraft Carriers Have To Keep In Stock
Wikipedia: C-2 Greyhound specifications

Diego Garcia has C-17 Globemaster III aircraft. One such aircraft can carry 170,900 pounds of cargo. So each week one C-17 could carry supplies to an airport in the Middle East. There's no way a C-17 could land on a carrier, but a C-2 Greyhound could ferry supplies to the ship. C-2 is smaller, designed to land on the ship. It would take at least 3 trips to ferry one weeks food rations to the ship. Perhaps other supplies would be required, so a 4th trip. Once per week.

Muscat International Airport is open and operational. That's just one airport. There are others.

Above calculations leave out potatoes, flour, vegetables, etc. Later in the article it says a carrier transfers 400,000 to 700,000 pounds to a carrier once every 7 to 10 days. Ok, let's use 400,000 once per week. And supplies are transferred ship-to-ship via cable. Why can't a supply ship deliver supplies to a carrier in the Strait of Hormuz? This is normal Navy operations. You could use a C-2 Greyhound for 40 trips per week, or one single trip with a supply ship. There's no need for the carrier to sail all the way to Diego Garcia. In worst case combat conditions, just sail the carrier out of range of Iranian weapons before ship-to-ship transfer. That should be possible in the Gulf of Oman. It shouldn't even be necessary to sail to the Arabian Sea. Sailing all the way to Diego Garcia? That means someone doesn't know about how carriers are supplied at sea. (hint: a certain Secretary of War)

#11 Re: Not So Free Chat » Politics » 2026-09-29 03:11:38

Maybe I shouldn't weigh in on Iran. But I was thinking, why is resupply so difficult? Last month there was concern that the USS Abraham Lincoln was short of food while deployed in the Strait of Hormuz. The base in Bahrain was damaged. But every Nimitz class aircraft carrier has 2 C-2 Greyhound cargo aircraft. Yes, limited range. But a C-130 Hercules, or C-17 Globemaster III, or some other cargo aircraft could carry supplies to a base in the region. Then transfer supplies to a C-2 Greyhound, to ferry those supplies to the ship. Isn't that what the C-2 are for? The US has multiple bases on the region. There are 3 air bases plus an airport in Oman where this could be done. If nearest supplies are Diego Garcia, that's 4,136km (2,233 nautical miles) one way. The C-2 Greyhound can only fly 1,300 nmi (2,400km) while carrying 10,000 pounds (4,500kg) of cargo. One way. But distance from Strait of Hormuz to Muscat International Airport is 398km, depending where in the Strait the carrier is located. Definitely can be reached. If not that airport, there are others.

This is basic logistics. Isn't that a basic part of the job for any officer of rank Colonel or Navy Captain or higher? Secretary of Defense shouldn't even have to address this himself, there should be staff to do this.

#12 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2026-09-29 00:38:55

Bob Clark, I listed to the video. AI voice. Video claimed SpaceX gave a presentation on September 15 of this year, showing slides with fixed prices to launch payloads with Starship. Price guaranteed until end of 2036. I tried to find that, and could not. Appears to be fiction. SpaceX website says send an email to sales. The video also claims both stages on flight 22 were caught, and 9 days later reflown. Both in September 2026. Target for 2028 was a 24-hour turnaround. More fiction: today's launch was flight 14. Flight 22 hasn't happened yet. Video went on to claim on-orbit propellant transfer because operational in 2027. I got to minute 4 of a 36 minute video. Going to bed, haven't listened to the rest. Should I bother?

#13 Re: Human missions » Starship is Go... » 2026-09-28 19:19:12

Good thing Starship deployed. Starship is going to have to earn revenue soon. So far it's paid by SpaceX investors. They got money from NASA for the Lunar lander, but no serious progress on that. And some profits from Falcon launches. But Starship is mostly funded by investors. StarLink gets its money from subscribers; more subscribers means more money. But more subscribers also means more traffic. StarLink is already slowing down due to traffic congestion. So they need more satellites. Starship just deployed so many satellites it's equivalent to several launches of Falcon 9. Subscribers revenue from StarLink will help.

One mission for Starship is Earth-to-Earth. If they want to carry passengers, they have to stop blowing up. Yes yes, I know. Product development. But Elon Musk announced his Interplanetary Transport System at the 67th International Astronautical Congress in Guadalajara, Mexico, on September 27, 2016. It's now 10 years. How many Starships have blown up? On paper Starship sounds good. And it is slowly making progress.

Saturn rockets were studied 1960-1962. Saturn C-5 was selected on January 25, 1962. First all-up unmanned test launch was Apollo 4, November 9, 1967. First crewed flight was Apollo 8, December 21, 1968. From selection to first manned flight 6 years and 11 months. If you include the early studies, then 8 years. First paper study of Saturn A-1 started 1959, but you can't count that because that was so much smaller than Saturn V it's like comparing Falcon 9 to Starship.

So yes, I do expect Starship to launch, deploy payload, and catch both stages without blowing up. Hear me Elon? Next launch! Double catch!

#14 Re: Large ships » Large Ship mass estimate & aerobraking » 2026-09-24 17:17:33

I ran Google AI again, using the 2031 departure trajectory.  It says hyperbolic approach velocity is 4.77 km/s.
"for a spacecraft departing earth orbit on February 23 2031 toward mars with 176 day transit what is approach velocity"

Then what is atmospheric entry velocity? 6.86 to 6.89 km/s depending on specific altitude defined for entry interface.
"assuming hyperbolic approach velocity of 4.77km/s to Mars, and aerocapture with apoapsis of 80km above surface, what is atmospheric entry velocity"

So the specific dates and trajectory reduce atmospheric entry velocity a little. And using 4.90 km/s is slightly higher exit velocity. So using Google the higher entry velocity we need to shed 1.99 km/s. That's a little better.

#15 Re: Large ships » Large Ship mass estimate & aerobraking » 2026-09-24 14:43:43

Thank you for the email, GW. I received your spreadsheet. Still haven't been able to calculate Mars approach speed. One orbital calculator assumes Hohmann transfer. This is an express trajectory. As Dr. Zubrin said, using roughly 10% more propellant to reduce transit time to 6 months. Increasing speed (reducing transit time) increases propellant exponentially, so faster than that is not practical. And a 6 month transit happens to be the free return trajectory for Mars. A pure Hohmann transfer takes 10.5 months. Reducing transit time to 8.5 months takes a trivial increase in propellant; basically within error margin. Reducing to 6 months takes more. Reducing still further becomes not practical.

But how to calculate Mars approach velocity with 6 month transit? Then descent into Mars gravity well to aerocapture altitude increases velocity further. Google AI can give me those numbers, but AI makes mistakes. Trying to calculate without AI is difficult.

#16 Re: Large ships » Large Ship mass estimate & aerobraking » 2026-09-20 14:16:43

Yes, I understand vector math. I had an argument with my grade 12 physics teacher about vectors. I pointed out if you reverse direction and reverse sign both, that cancels. So +10 m/s north equals -10 m/s south. If you want to reverse that's either -10 north, or +10 south. He never understood.

The issue with Mars approach trajectory is gravity from the planet Mars. An approach trajectory will head directly to orbital insertion. If using aerocapture, that means directly to aerocapture altitude. The gravity of Mars will turn the vehicle as it passes periapsis. Slowing from a hyperbolic trajectory to orbital insertion simply involves reducing speed, because direction will not change. At least propulsion will not change direction; the only thing changing direction will be gravity of Mars.

There is a fancy manoeuvre possible. The US air force did a theoretical study of a craft in Low Earth Orbit dipping into the upper atmosphere, using aerodynamic forces to change inclination. Belief was this would be more efficient than simply using propulsion to change inclination. I don't know if that has been tested with X-37. That is one exercise that could have been tested by that vehicle, but everything X-37 did is classified. Applying this principle to Mars, change of inclination is not desired, but aerodynamic effects could change length of time the vehicle is in Mars atmosphere. This would change length of time for aerocapture, and change orientation of the ellipse. Does apoapsis point back where the vehicle came from, or some other angle around its orbit? A quick Google: I think that's called "Argument of periapsis", measured to the close point, not the far point. That angle would be irrelevant for the Large Ship, because once orbital insertion is completed, the ship will perform multiple aerobraking manoeuvres to drop the apoapsis.

The Large Ship will have to drop into a relatively low Mars orbit so that SpaceX Starship can be used as a shuttle to carry passengers and cargo from the ship to the surface. At least one if not several Starships will be permanently located on Mars for this purpose. So the Large Ship will have to drop into an orbit Starship can reach.

#17 Re: Not So Free Chat » Current Gasoline/Petrol Price$ » 2026-09-19 19:48:30

Yeah, I remember my dad flip out when gas went above $1 per gallon. In Canadian dollars, and Imperial gallon. 1 i.perial gallon = 1.2 US gallons (1 and 1/5). If you want to get picky it's 1.20094993, but close enough. Still.

I remember filling my car when it was 23¢ per litre.

#18 Re: Large ships » Large Ship mass estimate & aerobraking » 2026-09-16 21:57:15

In 2020 I posted in the Large Ship main thread a post showing trajectories from the NASA trajectory browser. Let's do that, but update the dates.

here: NASA Ames Research Center Trajectory Browser

 	 	 	Orbit						   Injection	     Injection 	Post-	Total
SPK ID 	Name	 Size 	cond.	Earth		Destination	Duration 	C3 	Abs       ΔV 	Inject.	 ΔV    Route
 	 		code 	Departure 	Arrival 		    (km2/s2)	DLA	(km/s) ΔV(km/s) (km/s)

499	Mars 6779 km	0	Feb-23-2031	Aug-18-2031	176 days	14.7	8°	3.87	1.96	5.84	EM
499	Mars 6779 km	0	Mar-11-2031	Aug-18-2031	160 days	27.1	7°	4.39	2.02	6.42	EM
499	Mars 6779 km	0	Jan-16-2029	Jul-11-2029	176 days	24.3	22°	4.28	2.45	6.73	EM
499	Mars 6779 km	0	Mar-11-2031	Aug-02-2031	144 days	28.7	7°	4.46	2.82	7.28	EM
499	Mars 6779 km	0	Feb-01-2029	Jul-11-2029	160 days	46	21°	5.15	2.52	7.67	EM
499	Mars 6779 km	0	Mar-27-2031	Aug-02-2031	128 days	54.7	3°	5.48	3.03	8.51	EM
499	Mars 6779 km	0	Feb-01-2029	Jun-25-2029	144 days	48	21°	5.22	3.5	8.73	EM

Let's use the first one. Launch date Feb 23, 2031. Assuming starting in LEO at 200km altitude circular orbit (NASA's assumption).

This gives "Post-Injection ΔV" in km/s, but does not give arrival velocity or orbital parameters. It does assume Mars C3=0 km²/s².

Using this orbital calculator, an orbit of about Mars with a period of 6.22 days and a periapsis of 3,476.2km above planetary centre will have periapsis velocity of 4.9km/s. Periapsis is measured from the centre of mass of the object, Mars has an equatorial radius of 3,396.2km (Wikipedia), so this means 80km above the surface. That's deep enough for aerocapture.

#19 Re: Large ships » Large Ship mass estimate & aerobraking » 2026-09-16 18:10:10

GW Johnson wrote:

I never said aerocapture would not work.  I said it was risky.

Sorry. Tomorrow did. I appreciate the work. Trying to get a design that works.

TMI is going to be another issue. I posted of the possibility of nuclear fusion, and not nuclear thermal, but direct fusion thrust. It's  a long LONG way away. But.if that works, it fundamentally changes a lot of things. Including orbital insertion.

And yes, Dr Zubrin has a Ph.D. in Nuclear Engineering, only a Master of Science in Aeronautics and Astronautics.

#20 Re: Large ships » Large Ship mass estimate & aerobraking » 2026-09-16 12:26:24

I'm finding the objections to aerocapture amazing. This is the Mars Society, founded by Dr Robert Zubrin and the entire society is a strong advocate for Mars Direct. The mission plan for Mars Direct always was to aerocapture into Mars orbit, then descend to the surface. The reason for doing this instead of direct entry was to reduce heat load. To reduce ballistic coefficient, Mars Direct would use a fabric heat shield that opens like an umbrella. This significantly increases heat shield area. However, a carbon fibre fabric heat shield is not ablative, cannot handle as much heat as an ablative heat shield. It does partially melt, once exposed to heat it cannot be folded-up, cannot be stowed. I have said a carbon fibre heat shield is single use. Actually, Mars Direct would use it twice: once for aerocapture, then for atmospheric entry. But atmospheric entry at slower speed than direct entry, so a carbon fibre heat shield can handle it. This also allows more precise landing. JPL has done an excellent job landing their rovers. However, Mars Direct was developed in the last quarter of 1989 and first half of 1990, first presented to NASA in June 1990. Entering from Mars orbit would allow more precise landing.

I started this thread to simply estimate ship mass more precisely. The reason was high mass was a concern for propulsion from Earth orbit. The absolute guess resulted in a high mass that requires an absolute beast of a TMI stage. But Tom raised concern about aerocapture. So now we need to calculate aerocapture requirements. That also requires a more precise estimate of mass. I updated the threat title to reflect that.

#21 Re: Large ships » Large Ship mass estimate & aerobraking » 2026-09-15 11:05:04

So the next step is to verify the arrival velocity. I used Google AI. NASA has tables with Mars trajectories. For an express trajectory that takes 6-months one-way from Earth to Mars, what velocity does it arrive? And realize falling into the gravity well of Mars will add velocity. So the question is velocity when it first hits the Mars upper atmosphere.

#22 Re: Large ships » Large Ship mass estimate & aerobraking » 2026-09-14 18:57:03

To those skeptical that aerocaptire is possible at all, Mars Climate Orbiter was supposed to aerocapture. It stowed its solar array. If that's possible without a heat shield, then it's just a matter of scale.

#23 Re: Large ships » Large Ship mass estimate & aerobraking » 2026-09-14 17:56:32

Thanks Gary. I started by using Google to look up periapsis velocity for a highly elliptical high Mars orbit. The numbers I got were 5 to 6 km/s. So I used 6 for minimum deceleration. But when working out exact apoapsis altitude and orbital period, I discovered that velocity is hyperbolic. Mars escape velocity is 4.97 km/s. Rather than use 4.95 as barely in orbit at all, is used 4.85 as a small safety margin. So we have to be careful when using Google AI; it makes mistakes. Slowing from. 7.5 to 4.85 is more deceleration than I expected.

I'll work on a more precise mass estimate. It'll help. If we can get mass down, it'll help with orbital insertion.

#24 Re: Large ships » Large Ship mass estimate & aerobraking » 2026-09-13 21:42:05

Um, that's  the deepest descent into Mars atmosphere. Heavy braking is 80km to 100km above Mars surface. I said the deepest.

For a car driving down a highway at 100 km/h (62.1 mph), then standing on the brake pedal, completely lock breaks and skid. On typical dry asphalt road. Between 0.7 and 0.8g of force.

Clip from the movie "2010: The Year We Make Contact". First clip is small and 1 minute long. English. Second is larger, can be expanded to full-screen, 5 minutes (4:54) but dubbed in Spanish.
YouTube: Aerobraking
YouTube: 2010: Odisea Dos

#25 Re: Large ships » Large Ship mass estimate & aerobraking » 2026-09-13 21:11:03

I asked again, but with effective nose radius of 38 metres.
This time it used Sutton-Graves Constant for Mars (Csg): Approximately 1.89 x 10⁻⁴ kg^(0.5)/m
(Sorry, no superscript decimal point.)

After changing exit velocity from 6.0 to 4.85 km/s, the question was:
"mars aerobraking from 7.5 km/s to 4.85 km/s at altitude of 80 km would produce how much heating? With effective nose radius 38 metres. Expected deceleration profile for this pass."

1. Atmospheric Conditions at 80 km
According to the NASA Glenn Martian Atmosphere Model, the atmosphereic parameters at a 80 km altitude are:

  • Density (ρ): 3.77 x 10⁻⁵ kg/m³

  • Pressure (P): ≈0.52 Pa

  • Temperature (T): ≈72 K

2. Calculated Instantaneous Heat Flux
Entry Condition (7.5 km/s) vs Exit Condition (4.85 km/s)
Convective Heat Flux (q) ≈76.850 kW/m² (7.68 W/cm²) vs ≈20.780 kW/m² (2.08 W/cm²)

3. Key Observations

  • Total Peak Heating: At the beginning of the pas (7.5 km/s), the peak stagnation convective heating will be roughly 76.850 kW/m².

  • Radiative Heating: Because the entry speed is below 8.0 km/s and the altitude is relatively high (low density), the shock layer radiation is very weak and contributes negligibly to the overall heating profile. (references: Aerospace Research Centre, NASA)

  • Thermal Protection Relevance: For  a massive vehicle with a wide 38-meter nose radius, the large profile creates a thick shock layer standoff that heavily dampens the peak heat rate compared to small probes. This heat load is low enough to safely utilize radiative-cooled multi-use thermal protection systems (TPS). (references: NASA x2, The University of Queensland)

It then offered expected deceleration profile for this pass.

Atmospheric Entry (~120km down to 90km) 0.01g → 0.5g  Smooth exponential ramp-up as the vehicle encounters the rarefied upper atmosphere.
Periapsis Pass (80km closest approach) Peak: ~1.81g  Occurs near the lowest altitude point. The velocity drops closest to its median point here.
Atmospheric Exit (90km up to ~120km) 0.5g → 0.0g  Symmetric drop-off in drag as the spacecraft ascends back into vacuum space.

The entire high-drag portion of this pass lasts approximately 180 to 240 seconds.
Because it is a hypersonic entry at Mars, a lifting body approach (generating negative lift to prevent premature skipping back out of the atmosphere) is typically utilized to hold the vehicle steady at the 80km corridor.

If you are tailoring this for a specific vehicle layout, let me know its total mass or whether you want to calculate the required aerodynamic surface area (A) to hit that deceleration target.

3. Expected Deceleration Profile
The exact deceleration (a) profile depends heavily on whether this is a constant-altitude path or a standard ballistic orbital dip (where 80 km is the periapsis). The aerodynamic force scales according to a=½ρV²/β, where β is the vehicle's ballistic coefficient (m/CdA).

Peak Deceleration Location: At the very beginning of the pass (V = 7.5 km/s). Slightly before or exactly at periapsis (80 km), where density peaks.
Deceleration Profile Shape: A smooth, monotonically decreasing curve proportional to V². A bell-shaped curve that ramps up exponentially as the vehicle sinks into denser air, peaks near 80 km, and symmetrical fades as it skips back out.
G-Force Ratio: Initial deceleration is 2.4x higher than final deceleration (7.5²/4.85²). Peak G-load is skewed toward the inbound leg because velocity is higher during the descent phase.

Again edited to reduce final velocity from 6.0 km/s to 4.85 km/s.

  1. Index
  2. » Search
  3. » Posts by RobertDyck

Board footer

Powered by FluxBB