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#101 2018-11-19 19:01:35

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 15,823

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

Corporate America's debt boom looks like a bust for the economy

That said costs rising means there is a good chance for the shoe of job loss to follow...which is what happens in a tariff war.

Democrats in general are more skeptical of free trade agreements than their GOP counterparts. With
Trump's landmark trade deal with Canada and Mexico is suddenly in trouble

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#102 2018-11-19 19:16:33

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 15,823

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

Remember the tax cuts that would pay for them selves and how we would benefit...
ya not so much.
A tax increase tucked into Trump's tax cut came back to bite Republicans in high-tax districts across California, New Jersey, Virginia and other states.

expect to pay come tax time

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#103 2018-11-26 21:18:19

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 15,823

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

GM plans to halt operation at three assembly plants in Ohio, Michigan and Ontario, its biggest restructuring in North America since its bankruptcy. by cutting 14,000 jobs

Straight out Trumps mouth he demanded the automaker find a new vehicle to build in Ohio and added that he had told GM Chief Executive Mary Barra he was unhappy with her decision to cut production at an Ohio factory.

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#104 2018-11-26 21:46:13

kbd512
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Registered: 2015-01-02
Posts: 2,889

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

SpaceNut,

GM was producing cars at those plants, but American consumers didn't want cars, they wanted trucks and SUV's.  That trend was many years in the making.  The writing was on the wall for a long time for anyone with open eyes to see.  We finally have a company making electric trucks here in the US, which is something that GM could also make.

Unfortunately, this new startup is doing the same stupid thing that Tesla still does that drastically limits sales.  Price sells cars.  I don't care if an electric car has the same range as a gas powered car if the battery that would give the electric vehicle equivalent range costs as much as the vehicle it's installed in, provided that I can recharge my vehicle somewhere.  That infrastructure exists now and the range on a reasonably priced battery pack is more than sufficient for 95%+ of real world driving.

Make the thing go 100 to 200 miles per charge.  Make it recharge quickly.  That's it.  Such a vehicle would cost no more than a gas powered vehicle.  I can't figure out why that's so hard to understand.  When the gas runs out, you refill the gas.  Same concept, but with electricity.  One day an electric vehicle will have the same range as a gas powered vehicle for equivalent cost.  Today is not that day, but price still sells commodity products and a motor vehicle is a commodity product.

Automotive visionaries need to read a "Consumer Economics for Dummies" book.

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#105 2018-11-27 18:20:13

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 15,823

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

I would agree that automotive businesses are not making what the people want but when have they ever done that. They have always made something and hoped that people would want it.

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#106 2018-11-27 18:59:54

kbd512
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Posts: 2,889

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

SpaceNut,

True, but the market is sending unmistakable signals.  Small cars work best in dense urban areas where mass transit works even better.  Trucks and SUV's are more useful just about everywhere else.  I'm perfectly willing to let someone else or even a robot drive for me, but only if they can take me to the places I need to go near to the approximate times I need to go there and for a price that's equal to or less than the cost of a SUV.  So far, no dice.  In the future, maybe.  We'll see.  Those new all-electric big rigs look promising for mass transit.

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#107 2018-11-27 20:22:04

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
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Posts: 15,823

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

Small cars are ok until the snow flies and you find that hate to stay on the road in highway or rural winding. The suv and trucks waste fuel on these but are good for heavy loads or multiple people but worse in the stop and go of urban.
The small Fiat 500 or mini cooper cars are still twice the size that I need for the commute that covers all types of road conditions.

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#108 2018-11-28 03:52:31

elderflower
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Registered: 2016-06-19
Posts: 1,096

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

For most people a four wheel drive vehicle is an expensive, fuel-guzzling luxury. If you live in most areas of Western Europe there is no practical justification for such a machine. Same probably applies to large areas of North America.

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#109 2018-11-28 17:22:58

kbd512
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Posts: 2,889

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

How is it that a bunch of rednecks who have trouble spelling their own names grasp enough basic physics to understand that a car sitting four inches off the ground isn't going anywhere in a storm (flood or snow, doesn't really matter), except wherever the water carries it, but the ivory tower people with their advanced educations still haven't figured that one out?

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#110 2018-11-29 06:21:34

elderflower
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Registered: 2016-06-19
Posts: 1,096

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

The places I was considering don't get those kind of problems more than once in ten years. When it happens stay home! Weather forecasts are good enough these days. People who live in the hills, miles from anywhere will have annual uses for their heavy 4 wheel drive vehicles, but people who live in the burbs and commute to the cities_ why do they need those vehicles?

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#111 2018-11-29 09:06:21

kbd512
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Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

Shockingly enough, not every place on Earth is the same.  While perhaps strange to even consider to some, it still happens nonetheless.

People who live in the hills probably use four wheel drive as a way of life, or at least they do here in Texas.  You do realize that 4WD is about having traction to all four wheels, don't you?  There's a setting where you can engage in it on the dash.  It's not normally used for driving on roads, except when rain / sleet / snow / obstruction dictates.

I live in the suburbs.  We have this crazy combination of heavy rain and flat terrain here in Houston.  I'm sure it's never happened before anywhere else on Earth, but it does happen here.  We also have lots of geniuses who drive itty bitty cars who think the same way you do.  While our moral crusaders are busy saving the planet, they don't seem to have much capacity to save themselves.  Poor prioritization or just sheer arrogance?  I dunno, but I attribute it to a lack of critical thinking skills.

Apart from ruining the interiors of their vehicles, they routinely drown their engines when it rains and never seem to be able to figure out why their cars stall and die.  Thankfully for them, rednecks with 4WD pickups are generally available to come along and get their mobiles a movin, or at least pick up our favorite tree huggers to carry them to dry ground since we're not entirely sure that they wouldn't drown if placed face down in a bathtub with a couple inches of water in it (moving their heads two inches left or right would be a novelty to such people), so that everyone else can get to work.  I feel bad for them, but I can't reverse the consequences of their decisions.

It's almost like we have an entire class of people who think that physics doesn't apply to them or that they have an adequate answer to every possible problem they'll encounter in life.  These people are my ivory tower bubbas.  I still love them, but some of the things they do and say are real head scratchers.  Not a one of them could change a spark plug if their life depended on it, but they're "fabulous" in a society that we've largely succeeded in turning into an adult playpen.  I shudder to think about what would happen if we removed all the warning labels or routinely put them into situations where a modicum of critical thinking was required to continue to be counted amongst the living.  I'm just pleased as pop when they stay in their own lane on the highway, no matter how fascinating their phone is, and show the slightest bit of awareness that there are other people who are driving on the same road they're driving on.

In case the point isn't clear, I don't fault people for driving whatever they drive.  However, if they're unable understand why people don't drive the exact same thing they do and think the exact same things they do, then perhaps they ought to apply a little critical thinking.  I can tell from the responses that the point is already lost on you, but I tried anyway.

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#112 2018-12-02 04:38:39

elderflower
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Registered: 2016-06-19
Posts: 1,096

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

Houston is low lying and pretty flat, so is liable to flooding. It isn't liable to snow and ice very often.( And yes, I have been there). A little sea-level rise and an increase in storm surge severity will make matters worse. You may or may not agree that human activities are causing the polar regions to warm and may be causing storm systems to become more intense, but why take the risk? Your vehicle choice isn't the largest source of CO2 and other thermal radiation absorbing gases in the atmosphere, but it is a very powerful symbol and may make others think.
I have negotiated floods in ordinary front wheel drive vehicles. I don't advocate it, though. Stay home or evacuate before the flood arrives.

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#113 2018-12-02 21:04:04

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 15,823

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

tahanson43206 wrote:

SpaceNut ... thanks for giving this topic a boost.

SpaceNut wrote:

Repost:
Thats sort of a great question for earth fires.

Many a story of near dead when the fire over road the area a person was in had a deep water pool to protect the individual and animal alike. The issue of air quality can only be solve with preplanned air sources stored. Just not sure how much air supply you would really require. Of course that was the purpose of the old root cellars near a home that had just the door to enter in. Which would be stocked with all of what you would need to wait a fire underground.

I'd like to open this round with an assertion that I ** think ** some on the forum will agree with:

Job Creators (as a class) are far more important than politicians (as a class).  Earth could do nicely without a single politician, but civilization would expire overnight without job creators.

Having said that, I see a gap between the potential service which job creators COULD perform, and the service they currently do perform, vital as that is, and productive as it has been. 

The recent GM layoffs apparently will leave perfectly good, modern manufacturing plants, and thousands of (apparently) highly motivated productive people in a state of disuse.   While GM decisions are (to my mind) perfectly reasonable, as the Capitalist system works its magic, the fact remains that resources are being set on the ground as the corporation adapts to the demands of the market place.

The specific instance of GM is just the most recent example of capitalism doing its thing, leaving resources on the ground as corporations adapt to changing market demands.

The above was preface for a Louis-like vision .... that the discarded human and material resources of GM, and other corporations, could be enlisted to manufacture and install fire-resistant emergency shelters in California and other states which need them, and tornado, hurricane and flood resistant shelters for states which need them. 

I note that among the human resources to be cast aside by GM are (apparently) thousands of people who manage complex activities, or who manage finances for GM scale projects.   My Louis-like vision would include enlisting such talents to figure out how to finance installation of such shelters for persons who perform the lowest paid level of service in society, such as home health care, cleaning buildings after hours, and countless other essential services that allow modern civilized society to keep going.

(th)

GM's issues are corporate in that they are making products that are to costly, that have no buyers and with materials that are to costly to manufacture.

Diversity of products is another not seen by many corporations are the way to efficiency as unless you are using common parts for the products all you have is excess materials when production is idle.

The rise in materials costs where all on the shoulders of the President to which we are still feeling the effects of those changes. Some blame the unions, the costs of energy, the loss of profits due to regulations ect but thats not always true for any of these.

On the note of the fire and buildings that were made of metal did fair better as well as did brick or any other flame widthstanding materials. Some say that is what regulations are for but others will contend that it makes constructions unaffordable.

The same holds true for flood prone areas with building on stilts. Earth quake zones on sway pads ect... that is the purpose of calling for the higher building standards. To reduce the costs to replace when disasters do happen.

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#114 2018-12-02 21:06:42

kbd512
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Registered: 2015-01-02
Posts: 2,889

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

Elderflower,

My vehicle choice is related to an acceptance of driving in less than completely ideal conditions.  As far as symbols are concerned, to borrow a phrase from George Carlin, I leave symbols to the symbol-minded.

Earth's climate was changing long before humans ever existed.  The idea that we shouldn't be permitted to use presently available energy resources to sustain ourselves when no other practical alternatives exist, and must instead submit ourselves to a clear anti-human agenda that's incessantly regurgitated by self-loathing post-modern narcissists, approaches the precipice of a chasm of complete absurdity.

We have had the means to prevent the lion's share of CO2 from entering the atmosphere for decades now.  It's called nuclear power.  It's also a virtual necessity if we wave our magic wand and replace all gas-powered vehicles with electric vehicles, at least to those of us who are numerically-enabled.  The most practical and presently available solution is rejected by our beloved environmentalists because they're too ignorant and arrogant to accept that the solution to the problem they think is real has always been right there waiting for them to decide to accept using it.  They're also too busy virtue signaling to others (that they have no virtue) to do anything meaningful about the problem.

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#115 2018-12-02 21:34:09

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 15,823

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

kbd512 wrote:

SpaceNut,

The unions demanded a compensation package that's roughly double what auto workers in the US who work for other major auto manufacturers in right-to-work (non-union) states provide to their employees.  That's just a fact.  You can try to obfuscate that issue by blaming President Trump for material costs, but GM went bankrupt long before President Trump held office.  GM's management signed off on that because they're not all that great at management or finance, in spite of what you suggested, and that's why they're not competitive with rival auto manufacturers.  It has nothing to do with the cost of materials.  Their trucks and SUV's are competitive with similar products on the market and their primary competitors are also making vehicles in the US, which also subjects their competitors to the same cost of materials.  GM bled out a lot of cash by making cars that consumers clearly don't want, at inflated prices from union labor costs, and that's why they're bankrupt again.

I will agree with union overflating pay but they also serve a purpose for correcting the under paying as well.

I have also said that they are not making the product that I would want let alone at the right price to even think of the worng product to purchase.

So we are not to believe the news reports that state differently.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/11/26/181 … chevy-volt

GM layoffs and plant shutdowns suggest U.S. economy may be starting to slow — and dent Trump’s claim of an industrial renaissance

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#116 2018-12-04 04:40:52

elderflower
Member
Registered: 2016-06-19
Posts: 1,096

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

Kbd.
I do agree that we should be pursuing nuclear means of power generation. The objections raised can all be overcome, including designing for end of life decommissioning- which is a major cost to the UK at the moment as we dismantle our old Magnox plants.
I don't agree with your assessment of symbolism. Try publicly trashing the Stars and Stripes (a national symbol) if you really believe they are unimportant!

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#117 2018-12-14 18:15:11

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 15,823

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

The GM jobs will not all be gone as some 2000 will be transferred from the 4 plants that are closing due to the tariffs.

It is rumorred that China may be thinking of dropping some of its tariffs on American cars but we will see.

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#118 2018-12-18 22:37:29

Void
Member
Registered: 2011-12-29
Posts: 3,011

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

I will just stick this here.  Is he 100% correct?  I bet he would not even want to be held to that standard in the future of time.

But he is entertaining at least.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BclcpfVn2rg

If someone lives long enough to experience the future, that person(s) will be able to judge it.  Sort of.


I like people who criticize angels dancing on a pinhead.  I also like it when angels dance on my pinhead.

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#119 2018-12-24 22:14:06

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 15,823

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

New pepper-picking robot isn't fast, but it can work 20 hours a day to compensate for the lose of people to pick the food
https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/ne … ncna950846

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/20 … in-n951111

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#120 2018-12-28 22:18:43

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 15,823

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

The trade deals have not panned out, the tariffs are still rolling and the shutdown has started to snowball as the effects are now going to be seen in more agencies that have not been fully funded and with all of the slide; the stores that had large closings are not coming back. Sears is another that must close more stores or go out of bussiness. Sears wins reprieve from liquidation as chairman makes last-minute bid on bankrupt company

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#121 2019-01-01 19:12:44

Void
Member
Registered: 2011-12-29
Posts: 3,011

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

I have a fairly neutral opinion on the whole thing, but I though I would show a brighter side to this process.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/co … story.html
Quote:

Trump's trade war contributes to commercial boom for Tijuana, as companies seek to leave China and its rising tariffs

Gustavo SolisContact Reporter

President Donald Trump’s trade war may be pushing more manufacturers and other businesses to leave China — and one beneficiary is Tijuana, which seems to be booming, in part thanks to the trend.
Businesses don’t face the tariffs in Mexico that they would if they remained in China.
An inexpensive and plentiful labor force, competitive real estate prices and proximity to U.S. markets make Baja California an appealing option for businesses who want out of China, according to Mexican and American business experts.
“American companies that were in China, now because of the tariffs, are coming to Mexico,” said Elias Laniado, the chief commercial officer for Vesta, Tijuana’s largest industrial real estate developer. “The tariffs benefit us."

This added interest is contributing to a historic upsurge in Tijuana’s economy. The city’s industrial real estate vacancy rate is about three percent, and Tijuana’s businesses employ the highest number of manufacturing workers in the city’s history.
Some companies are choosing Tijuana over California because of affordability. They say it’s simply too expensive to do business in the Golden State, said Adriana Eguia, vice president of new business at Vesta and former CEO of Tijuana’s Economic Development Corporation.
“Companies in Southern California tell me, ‘We want to come back to the U.S. but prices are way too high with minimum wage, so we are looking at Mexico. If we want to grow, it can’t be in California, it’s going to have to be Arizona, Nevada or Mexico,’” Eguia said.
This trend of American-based companies with a presence in China moving to Tijuana began about two years ago, when the cost of doing business in China began to rise. A more recent trend is Chinese-based companies entering the Tijuana market, said Eguia.
So who is expanding to Tijuana? They aren’t household names.
“They are smaller or midsize companies,” said Ernesto Bravo, President of Tecma West, a division of a larger company that helps foreign businesses move into Mexico. “They are suppliers to a larger company, and that larger company already has a presence in Mexico. They might be automotive, they might be aerospace or medical, and their client asks the company to be in Mexico.”
Large companies with a presence in Mexico include Samsung, Toyota, Panasonic and Foxcom, Bravo added.
Tecma helps businesses expand into Tijuana by helping them navigate the regulatory process. The company offers a variety of services including tax compliance, customs, human resources, environmental health and safety and leasing.

It’s difficult to quantify how many China-based companies have moved to Tijuana. Baja California does not track what companies move in and out of the region. Also, about half of all foreign businesses expanding to the area use services that protect the privacy of some of their clients.
Anecdotally, Eguia said, the number of email inquiries to the EDC has doubled from Chinese-based companies looking at Tijuana. Three Chinese companies visited Tijuana in a two-week span in November, and a delegation from Hong Kong visited Tijuana in that same month.
Interest in Tijuana so high that the EDC decided to send an envoy to China in October. Representatives visited Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and Hong Kong with the aim of pitching them Tijuana as an affordable base from which they can produce goods for American customers.
“In the majority of cities, the companies commented that they were looking at Mexico because of the trade war,” Eguia said.
Because Tijuana is close to the United States, shipping and storage costs are lower and executives can oversee production from Southern California. A drive from Los Angeles to Tijuana is less than three hours, while a flight to China is more than 12.
This setup also helps San Diego’s economy. Every job created in Baja California helps generate half a job in San Diego, according to Paola Avila, vice president of international business affairs for the San Diego Chamber of Commerce.
That’s because, while manufacturing and engineering jobs go to Tijuana, companies that expand in Baja often open legal, finance, and marketing departments in San Diego.
“We actually benefit more from companies that expand into Baja versus a company that expands to Texas,” Avila said. “Even, I dare say, LA.”
Experts expect Tijuana’s real estate market boom to continue in 2019, although there are some uncertainties with Mexico’s new president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
Vesta’s Laniado, who has more than 40 years of experience in the industry, says Tijuana’s boom is historic.
“We’ve never had so much activity,” he said. “At least in my professional life.”
CBRE, a commercial real estate services and investment firm, has tracked the rate of occupied square footage in Tijuana for years, and reported that 2016 was a record year.
In the early part of 2017, there was a slowdown after the U.S. election, but the market bounced back quickly, said Joe Smith, senior vice president at CBRE.
“By mid-year 2017, it was gangbusters again, it was business as usual,” Smith said. “2018 looks like it will be the second busiest year in terms of net and gross absorption that we’ve seen.”
Just as investors were worried about Trump in 2017, there are concerns about the new Mexican president.
Lopez Obrador has proposed reducing business taxes, doubling the minimum wage and creating an economic zone along the border. Although the business community likes the sound of lower taxes, they are worried about rising wages. If wages rise too much, Tijuana could lose its competitive edge in the global market.
Contact Gustavo Solis via Email or Twitter
Copyright © 2019, The San Diego Union-Tribune

I take no pleasure in trouble for China.  But per Peter Ziehan, North America for a time is likely to have the only markets of significance on the planet. 

And as it happens Canada is aging with very little Millennials.  But for now they are at peak productivity.

In the USA, Baby Boomers are retiring.

The Millennials of the USA will get up to speed as a productive generation in a few years, but just now they are keeping the economy going with typical spending and borrowing patterns of the young.

It seems that in between our baby boomers and millennials the Mexicans have a good labor force now.  And possibly over time, if they get wealthier they will become a significant market.

The Central Americans have just started knocking on our door, and it seems that the USA and Mexico intend to do some kind of work to try to get the Central Americans to stay home with their own jobs.  So, here is a situation where it benefits us for jobs from east Asia to come to North America.

Due to fracking and traditional oil and natural gas, we have a very favorable energy situation relative to many others.

It could be too bad for China, but given a choice, who do we want to look out for more Mexicans & Central Americans, or China's people?

And it can be noted that if this supply chain is spread out across North America, then less greenhouse gasses will be created shipping manufactured items from East Asia to the North American markets.

Just thought I would present a eventual bright side to this trade ruckus.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2019-01-01 19:35:46)


I like people who criticize angels dancing on a pinhead.  I also like it when angels dance on my pinhead.

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#122 2019-01-01 20:03:53

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 15,823

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

Tijauna has lots of illegal hands waiting to cross so they would be looking for work and they will take just about anything...

The minimum wage is set to increase in 21 states and DC and While the Federal minimum wage of $7.25 hasn't moved in nearly a decade, several states and cities have set their own higher minimum wages, and many of those are planning increases in 2019.

States changes from2018 to 2019 table

Of course the issue is the small business owner will not be able to afford the increases if they are too greate and may layoff the employees or close there business as a result of the higher wage cost in doing business.

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#123 2019-01-01 21:13:18

Void
Member
Registered: 2011-12-29
Posts: 3,011

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

My understanding is that Mexico sends very little in the way of new illegal immigrants.

Possibly there are as many Mexicans leaving the USA, as entering now.

It is now Central Americans who are looking for jobs in the USA.

Yes wages and such trends.  Very complex I am sure.

But reshoring from overseas to the USA and Mexico (Especially) has been going on now for a couple of years, and will probably pick up even more.

Done.


I like people who criticize angels dancing on a pinhead.  I also like it when angels dance on my pinhead.

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#124 2019-02-01 21:19:50

SpaceNut
Administrator
From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 15,823

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

An estimate from the CBO found that the recent shutdown cost the U.S. economy roughly $11 billion by dampening economic activity and furloughing federal workers. The government may be open, but come Feb. 15, the doors could close again, given the current state of negotiations.

The shutdown is over — but not the pain for small businesses, Another battering could come in less than three weeks.

GM said to be readying 4,000 involuntary job cuts next week

The job reductions, part of GM's previously announced plan to reduce its headcount by 15 percent, are coming after more than 2,000 employees accepted voluntary buyouts. GM has said the job cuts and plant closings will free up $6 billion in cash, for a net savings of $4.5 billion in cash by 2020. Yet the automaker has spent $10.6 billion since 2015 buying back its own shares, according to filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

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#125 2019-02-03 21:27:36

SpaceNut
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From: New Hampshire
Registered: 2004-07-22
Posts: 15,823

Re: Isolationist, Buy American, Trumps Tariff war

There is a secondary effect to the GM plants closing in GM plant closings will hit parts suppliers far and wide

Many of the parts that flow into the transmission plant near Baltimore come from other states, including South Carolina and Tennessee, and some are delivered from Mexico and Canada.

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