Ukraine & Crimea

Excelsior · 2014-05-15 07:06:51

martienne wrote:

Consider what a MASSIVE miscalculation the US state department made when it started meddling in Ukraine and ended up losing what they wanted most in Ukraine, the Crimea!

When and why would the US State Department want Crimea? Our position has always been that it belongs to Kiev, and the Russians are welcome there as long as Kiev welcomes them.

martienne wrote:

Consider how wrong you were about Syria, Libya, Iraq, all of which are worse off now, than before the US started meddling, and where the US view turned out to be wrong.

How, pray tell, where we wrong in those in those instances?

RobertDyck · 2014-05-15 07:13:00

Tom Kalbfus wrote:

tax cuts...already expired

Wikipedia: Bush tax cuts

The Bush tax cuts had sunset provisions that made them expire at the end of 2010, since otherwise they would fall under the Byrd Rule. Whether to renew the lowered rates, and how, became the subject of extended political debate, which was resolved during the presidency of Barack Obama by a two-year extension that was part of a larger tax and economic package, the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010. In 2012, during the fiscal cliff, the tax cuts were made permanent for single people making less than $400,000 per year and couples making less than $450,000 per year, and eliminated for everyone else, under the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012.

RobertDyck · 2014-05-15 07:17:41

The Iraq war of 1991 was entirely justified. Iraq annexed Kuwait, and asked the UN for protection. But the Security Council prohibitted the "no fly zones". They should never have been done. When Norman Schwarzkopf said the war was over, time to go home, that meant the war was over, time to go home. After 9/11, George W. Bush should have focussed on Al Quaeda. But he ordered a second invasion of Iraq.

martienne · 2014-05-15 07:34:54

Terraformer wrote:

Actually, I tend to skip over Tom's Walls of Text.
I wonder if Russia will turn off the gas to Ukraine if Ukraine refuses to turn on the water to Crimea?
Also, what will the effects on food commodities price be from Ukraine's decision to cause a drought in Crimea? What might the effects be on gas prices in Europe, if tit-for-tat continues through the winter? Will it have a destablising influence on european governments, and if so, how will people respond - by flocking to the socialists, the fascists, or the eurosceptics who may be either, neither, or both?

Re Ukraine turning off the water to Crimea: They also froze bank accounts of people on Crimea in Ukrainian banks. So it looks like Crimea will lose its crops this year, due to no possibility to water the fields. Apparently they offered to pay near double, but Ukraine won't budge. Apparently Ukraine blocked the canal with water for Crimea with sandbags, and now they are using blackmail about removing the sandbags. No water coming out of the taps in many parts of the peninsula.

Re gas war: (not petrol, gas as in natural gas) It will affect the Ukrainians worst, then Eastern Europeans, then poor people in Western Europe.

Russia was perfectly willing to supply heavily discounted gas according to the agreements with the previous legitimately elected government. But not with the new government, in light of all that's happened. So now they are supposed to pay full price and in advance, since they are unreliable about paying on time.

The gas pipelines for other parts of Europe run over Ukrainian territory since back in Soviet times. In modern days Russia built a pipeline in the Baltic sea (Nordstream) and another one is being built in the Black sea "South Stream) to circumvent Ukraine, Baltic States and Poland, in order to prevent these types of problems. After that's complete the Ukraine won't be able to continue like it has.

Germany is a major customer of Russian gas + Eastern Europe.
There are some other sources of gas in Europe, but nothing to match Russia. Not all countries use gas a lot though - some deal with heating in other ways.

Essentially Ukraine can intercept the gas that pass their territory and siphon some of it off. This has happened a lot in the past

Even if some gas is available, regular people in Ukraine cannot afford market prices, only the "symbolic" low price - a fraction of the real price, with the government picking up the difference. But the government is bankrupt and at a full price it's even doubly impossible.

It's worth noting that all people in the ex USSR have horrible habits in terms of energy waste. People think their house needs to be 25C in the winter, at least! Keep hot water boiling 24/7 on the stove. Window open while using the radiotor.. Houses are not particularly well insulated, or in the case of 1960s house, not well ventilated either. Partly they could change their habits, insulate better and halve their gas consumption. Heating was free in USSR days, and people have a hard time accepting that this is something they need to pay for, and that you need to be careful with how you use energy.

This pic shows where the gas pipelines run, and which countries use the most Russian gas. Dotted red lines are Nordstream (finished) and South Stream (in progress).

Last edited by martienne (2014-05-15 08:00:38)

RobertDyck · 2014-05-15 08:05:50

@martienne: I have a few interests re Ukraine. First, I don't want to see another cold war. More importantly, I don't want to see a nuclear war. I grew up during the 1960s & 1970s, last cold war. "Routes" in the City of Winnipeg were created in the 1950s for evacuation during nuclear war. Winnipeg is just 100km (60 miles) north of the border with North Dakota. We're are along the way to America's ICBM silos. Winnipeg was a target of at least one, probably 3 Soviet nuclear missiles. I talked to a Canadian military recruiting officer during career day in the spring of grade 10. I raised the issue of nuclear war, was afraid a Russian missile was pointed at us. She said probably not a big one, instead 3 missiles, 1 megatonne each. One at the airport / air force base, one at Simington Yard (rail yard), and one right at downtown. If a 1Mt bomb hit the intersection of Portage & Main, my house is within the blast. I checked blast radius for such a blast, at this distance my roof would be torn off, all windows shattered, wooden houses would catch on fire (mine has stucco), and if I was outdoors or standing in front of the kitchen window, I would get third degree burns. I spend most of my time at the computer, I have a home business repairing computers so this is my income. My office window also faces downtown. Then there's radiation. If I scrunch down in the basement, then I could avoid the majority of damage, but still get radiation exposure.

During the 1970s, the United States built a missile defence system. A treaty with the Soviet Union limited each country to only one such defence system. The Soviet Union defended Moscow, the United States defended their missile silos in North Dakota. But 1970s technology was not able to hit a missile with a missile, so they put a small nuclear warhead on their missiles. It just had to detonate close to the re-entry vehicle. American ABMs were designed to explode over southern Manitoba, just 30 miles south of Winnipeg. So if I don't get blown up by a Russian missile, I get irradiated by the air burst of an American one. You see, I literally live in the crossfire. So I am highly motivated to avoid a new cold war.

And this does relate to Mars. During the late 1990s, the Mars Society talked about using the big Russian rocket for a human mission to Mars. Robert Zubrin calculated his Mars Direct mission plan would require 2 Ares rockets per mission (SLS is basically the same thing), or 3 Energia rockets. Robert Zubrin's book quoted a Stanford estimate of the cost for Energia. But I asked if anyone actually talked to the Russians. After a couple years of no answer, I did. It was available. I got a response from the director of the International Division of NPO Energia. It was in Russian, and took weeks for me to translate. That was very exciting! But this Ukraine thing kills all that.

By the way, if I ever get anything in Russia again, could I ask you to help translate?

Not only does conflict between Russia and "The West" kill any international cooperation for Mars, it also kills any cooperation between Russia and Ukraine. I've said it before, but the strap-on boosters for Energia are built at Yuzhmash in Dnipropetrovsk, and the Antonov An-225 Mriya aircraft used to transport fuel tanks for the core module from Russia to Baikonur in Kazhakstan was built by Antonov in Kyiv. Only one was built, Antonov Airlines operates it. So this conflict definitely affects Mars.

Last edited by RobertDyck (2014-05-15 08:36:25)

Excelsior · 2014-05-15 11:42:38

RobertDyck wrote:

The Iraq war of 1991 was entirely justified. Iraq annexed Kuwait, and asked the UN for protection. But the Security Council prohibitted the "no fly zones". They should never have been done. When Norman Schwarzkopf said the war was over, time to go home, that meant the war was over, time to go home. After 9/11, George W. Bush should have focussed on Al Quaeda. But he ordered a second invasion of Iraq.

We should have taken out Saddam in 1991. Never take your boot off the neck of a rabid dog.

No need for no fly zones, sanctions that never hurt their intended target, and 3 to 4 times the number of troops to mop up with.

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-05-16 05:37:55

RobertDyck wrote:

The Iraq war of 1991 was entirely justified. Iraq annexed Kuwait, and asked the UN for protection. But the Security Council prohibitted the "no fly zones". They should never have been done. When Norman Schwarzkopf said the war was over, time to go home, that meant the war was over, time to go home. After 9/11, George W. Bush should have focussed on Al Quaeda. But he ordered a second invasion of Iraq.

Do you remember what those No Fly Zones were for? They were to prevent Saddam Hussein from slaughtering the Kurds! Are you saying we should have got out the popcorn and watched them slaughter the Kurds after Norman Schwarzkopf said we beat them? Wouldn't that be the equivalent of letting the Germans finish exterminating the Jews after we defeated them in World War II? I tend to think we should eliminate from power those that start wars such as the Persian Gulf War, that way those enemies can trouble us no more. Look what happened to Germany after we declared the Germans defeated in World War I. Negotiated ends to wars are for those enemies that we cannot defeat without significant destruction to ourselves, Iraq did not count among those.

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-05-16 05:49:09

RobertDyck wrote:

@martienne: I have a few interests re Ukraine. First, I don't want to see another cold war. More importantly, I don't want to see a nuclear war. I grew up during the 1960s & 1970s, last cold war. "Routes" in the City of Winnipeg were created in the 1950s for evacuation during nuclear war. Winnipeg is just 100km (60 miles) north of the border with North Dakota. We're are along the way to America's ICBM silos. Winnipeg was a target of at least one, probably 3 Soviet nuclear missiles. I talked to a Canadian military recruiting officer during career day in the spring of grade 10. I raised the issue of nuclear war, was afraid a Russian missile was pointed at us. She said probably not a big one, instead 3 missiles, 1 megatonne each. One at the airport / air force base, one at Simington Yard (rail yard), and one right at downtown. If a 1Mt bomb hit the intersection of Portage & Main, my house is within the blast. I checked blast radius for such a blast, at this distance my roof would be torn off, all windows shattered, wooden houses would catch on fire (mine has stucco), and if I was outdoors or standing in front of the kitchen window, I would get third degree burns. I spend most of my time at the computer, I have a home business repairing computers so this is my income. My office window also faces downtown. Then there's radiation. If I scrunch down in the basement, then I could avoid the majority of damage, but still get radiation exposure.
During the 1970s, the United States built a missile defence system. A treaty with the Soviet Union limited each country to only one such defence system. The Soviet Union defended Moscow, the United States defended their missile silos in North Dakota. But 1970s technology was not able to hit a missile with a missile, so they put a small nuclear warhead on their missiles. It just had to detonate close to the re-entry vehicle. American ABMs were designed to explode over southern Manitoba, just 30 miles south of Winnipeg. So if I don't get blown up by a Russian missile, I get irradiated by the air burst of an American one. You see, I literally live in the crossfire. So I am highly motivated to avoid a new cold war.
And this does relate to Mars. During the late 1990s, the Mars Society talked about using the big Russian rocket for a human mission to Mars. Robert Zubrin calculated his Mars Direct mission plan would require 2 Ares rockets per mission (SLS is basically the same thing), or 3 Energia rockets. Robert Zubrin's book quoted a Stanford estimate of the cost for Energia. But I asked if anyone actually talked to the Russians. After a couple years of no answer, I did. It was available. I got a response from the director of the International Division of NPO Energia. It was in Russian, and took weeks for me to translate. That was very exciting! But this Ukraine thing kills all that.
By the way, if I ever get anything in Russia again, could I ask you to help translate?
Not only does conflict between Russia and "The West" kill any international cooperation for Mars, it also kills any cooperation between Russia and Ukraine. I've said it before, but the strap-on boosters for Energia are built at Yuzhmash in Dnipropetrovsk, and the Antonov An-225 Mriya aircraft used to transport fuel tanks for the core module from Russia to Baikonur in Kazhakstan was built by Antonov in Kyiv. Only one was built, Antonov Airlines operates it. So this conflict definitely affects Mars.

I agree with everything you said here, but Putin started this second Cold War and he could end it easily enough, all he has to do is return the land he took or pay Ukraine financial compensation and we can put the matter behind us. There I a good historical justification that Putin could use, but so far has failed to use, namely that Kruschev's gift to Ukraine was not legitimate because he was the leader of an illegitimate country and he wasn't democratically elected by the Russian people, and so had no right to give away Russian land without Russia's consent. I could agree to that, I just think Russia should pay Ukraine some money for the inconvenience of it and forgive Ukraine all of its debt to Russia in exchange for keeping the land it took, but Putin refuses to use this soft power, I don't know why.

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-05-16 06:29:17

martienne wrote:

Terraformer wrote:
Actually, I tend to skip over Tom's Walls of Text.
I wonder if Russia will turn off the gas to Ukraine if Ukraine refuses to turn on the water to Crimea?
Also, what will the effects on food commodities price be from Ukraine's decision to cause a drought in Crimea? What might the effects be on gas prices in Europe, if tit-for-tat continues through the winter? Will it have a destablising influence on european governments, and if so, how will people respond - by flocking to the socialists, the fascists, or the eurosceptics who may be either, neither, or both?

Basically you ask questions and refuse to listen to the answers. I try to be detailed and specific, that is why there are "walls of text", if I gave you a short snippy answer, you would probably pick it apart, so I anticipate some of your objections in advance to save time in posting, does that sound fair to you?

As for Eurosceptics, I believe Putin is one of those, after all he attacked Ukraine for wanting to establish a trade relationship with the EU, if that is not Euroscepticism, I don't know what is!

Re Ukraine turning off the water to Crimea: They also froze bank accounts of people on Crimea in Ukrainian banks. So it looks like Crimea will lose its crops this year, due to no possibility to water the fields. Apparently they offered to pay near double, but Ukraine won't budge. Apparently Ukraine blocked the canal with water for Crimea with sandbags, and now they are using blackmail about removing the sandbags. No water coming out of the taps in many parts of the peninsula.

What did the United States do to cut off the Confederate States when they attempted secession? If the Crimeans want water, all they have to do is surrender and put down their weapons. They started this conflict and they can end it, assuming Putin didn't start it.

Re gas war: (not petrol, gas as in natural gas) It will affect the Ukrainians worst, then Eastern Europeans, then poor people in Western Europe.
Russia was perfectly willing to supply heavily discounted gas according to the agreements with the previous legitimately elected government. But not with the new government, in light of all that's happened. So now they are supposed to pay full price and in advance, since they are unreliable about paying on time.

The full price is contained within the land they stole.
Also does this mean we should invade any country we like that didn't have what we consider a legitimate election to establish its government? What about the government of Fidel Castro and his brother in Cuba? I do not think those last few elections were legitimate as there was no competition, I think Castro's government is even less legitimate than the one in Ukraine, should we invade?

The gas pipelines for other parts of Europe run over Ukrainian territory since back in Soviet times. In modern days Russia built a pipeline in the Baltic sea (Nordstream) and another one is being built in the Black sea "South Stream) to circumvent Ukraine, Baltic States and Poland, in order to prevent these types of problems. After that's complete the Ukraine won't be able to continue like it has.

And who was telling them that they shouldn't be depending on their enemies for energy? None other than Ronald Reagan! Did they listen? Nope, they preferred to be stupid!

Germany is a major customer of Russian gas + Eastern Europe.

Germany has something in common with Ukraine, they are both the victims of Russia's land theft, the only difference is that Ukraine didn't start World War II, it just got in the way of Germany's invasion of Russia. So maybe Germans feeling guilty about World War II perhaps feel that they owed Russia some land, but how do they justify Ukraine being forced to give up its land? You see Russia was Germany's partner in invading Poland and starting World War II, not Ukraine!

There are some other sources of gas in Europe, but nothing to match Russia. Not all countries use gas a lot though - some deal with heating in other ways.

I believe Zubrin mentioned a method of creating natural gas using a nuclear reactor and carbon dioxide in the air and hydrogen which can come from water. Also what about all that investment the Germans made in alternative energy sources, how has that panned out?

Essentially Ukraine can intercept the gas that pass their territory and siphon some of it off. This has happened a lot in the past
Even if some gas is available, regular people in Ukraine cannot afford market prices, only the "symbolic" low price - a fraction of the real price, with the government picking up the difference. But the government is bankrupt and at a full price it's even doubly impossible.

Who kept Ukraine poor? Ukraine is a European Country, the only reason it is poor is because Communism was imposed on it from without!

It's worth noting that all people in the ex USSR have horrible habits in terms of energy waste. People think their house needs to be 25C in the winter, at least! Keep hot water boiling 24/7 on the stove. Window open while using the radiotor.. Houses are not particularly well insulated, or in the case of 1960s house, not well ventilated either. Partly they could change their habits, insulate better and halve their gas consumption. Heating was free in USSR days, and people have a hard time accepting that this is something they need to pay for, and that you need to be careful with how you use energy.

That is what you get when you have central planning and also why Ukraine and other ex-Soviet Republics are poor. Are you really surprised that Ukraine does not want to join Russia's Eurasian Union after it had done such a terrible job of economic management with the Soviet Union? Lenin was a Russian by the way, and the USSR was his child, and it made everyone it included poor!

This pic shows where the gas pipelines run, and which countries use the most Russian gas. Dotted red lines are Nordstream (finished) and South Stream (in progress).
http://news2.ru/story_images/145000/123 … ated_2.jpg

Last edited by Tom Kalbfus (2014-05-16 06:34:43)

RobertDyck · 2014-05-16 06:43:05

Tom Kalbfus wrote:

I agree with everything you said here, but Putin started this second Cold War and he could end it easily enough, all he has to do is return the land he took or pay Ukraine financial compensation and we can put the matter behind us. There I a good historical justification that Putin could use, but so far has failed to use, namely that Kruschev's gift to Ukraine was not legitimate because he was the leader of an illegitimate country and he wasn't democratically elected by the Russian people, and so had no right to give away Russian land without Russia's consent. I could agree to that, I just think Russia should pay Ukraine some money for the inconvenience of it and forgive Ukraine all of its debt to Russia in exchange for keeping the land it took, but Putin refuses to use this soft power, I don't know why.

Now find a way to do that without claiming the Soviet Union was illegitimate? If you can't then STFU.

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-05-16 06:50:59

RobertDyck wrote:

Excelsior wrote:
I don't see Russia coming around anytime soon.
Coming around to what? They're supposed to have pride. They're not supposed to back down. The only way Russia is going to participate in space an any significant way, is if they do have pride. So let them. Every time you try to destroy them, you create necessity for conflict. Does the United States need to be torn down? No? Then stop trying to tear down Russia.
The only problem was Crimea. It's evident that Putin currently has no desire to take any more from Ukraine. Of course the public outrage he started is very difficult to stop. East Ukraine doesn't want to hear that they were just a pawn. But they were. The CIA tried to convince Ukraine to join NATO and EU. And it didn't take a lot, western Ukraine is still panicked over Holodomor. And they should be. But any effort to put Russian navy bases under NATO control? Not going to happen. That just begged for trouble.

Ironically the Russians will need that base now that they started a Cold War, they didn't before. Russia could have instead kept on paying rent to Ukraine and using that base even if Ukraine joined NATO and the EU. We were not Russia' enemy until Russia made us their enemy. What an independent country does is its own business, whether it wants to join NATO or the EU. I think the one person who made the most persuasive case about Ukraine joining NATO wasn't the CIA, it was Putin himself through his own actions, before that Ukraine was only talking about establishing a partnership with the EU, something neutral countries like Switzerland, Ireland and Finland already have. Ireland by the way is not a member of NATO but is part of the EU, so if Ireland can join the EU, why not Ukraine?

Putin has given Russians pride again, in much the same way Hitler restored German pride.

There was pride when America landed its first astronauts on the Moon, and unlike Russia' pride, this pride did not come at some other country's expense!

Whether it leads to limited conventional conflict or not, it only ends one way, the Russian people swallow their pride and kick the Putin/Mendeleev tag team out of office in favor of someone who can act civilized. At best, that will only happen after a sustained period of painful economic isolation. In the mean time other trouble spots where we depended on the Russians to speak reason into little tyrants, like North Korea, Iran, Syria, ect, are off the table. We have to go eyeball to eyeball with them now, because the Russians have proven unreliable partners (as if they ever where). It might mean a Sino-Russian Alliance, the return to a bipolar world, and fierce competition for influence in the developing world. Either way, the so called peace dividend was a myth, and it's time to get serious again.

Which means we shouldn't be cutting our defense budget, we should be increasing it!

The whole purpose of a space station was to experiment with the life support systems
ONE purpose. The station had a lot of other science objectives. And needs the centrifuge module. Duplicating all the mistakes of ISS with yet another station? Just a waste of money, distraction, delay.
We got to the moon on pure nationalism, but it didn't keep us there.
Have you read my post about Newfoundland? Robert Zubrin drew upon history as an analogy for how we can got to Mars. Newfoundland tells us about establishing the first viable settlement. Nationalism won't do it. Science won't. Only private enterprise, and they need profit. Provide free knowledge: technology, exploration/scouting, maps. Then stay out of the way. But I don't think we're there yet. We need a successful human mission to Mars first. And not the Moon; as Robert Zubrin pointed out during George W.'s Constellation, equipment designed for the Moon won't work on Mars. But equipment designed for Mars will work on the Moon. So fine, skip the Moon, go straight to Mars. Once the government funded mission is done, let private enterprise decide when location has the best profit potential.
To get this back on topic: a science mission / government funded technology demonstration, could be done a few ways. One is an international mission using Russia's Energia. Another uses Vulkan. Or Mars Direct using SLS. Or my mission architecture, using SLS. Or Falcon X Heavy. Or Falcon XX. The only question is which will be built.

martienne · 2014-05-27 05:11:56

116 burned alive in the Union building in Odessa, by sympathisers of the Kiev government.

Government forces fire into a crowd in Mariupol, on Peace Day and kill 48 people.

100 killed yesterday, as the Kiev government attacks Slovjansk and Donetsk. Ambulances attacked while driving survivors to the hospitals, and survivors executed point blank.

This extreme violence is not carried out by regular conscripts or professional soldiers in the UA army. It's either mercenaries, or extremists that were drafted because nobody else would fire on their own countrymen.

Go ahead, Tom Kalbfus - let's hear how you justify these mass murderers, in a country that you don't really understand.... but where the USA has an agenda that you automatically support...

That's the new "democratic" government that was supported by the EU and USA, doing this. Everybody with half a braincell in their head know that this was about getting a foot-hold into Ukraine, for NATO; trying to score a point against Russia and doing yet another "colour/flower revolution".

Pathetic CIA plotters have been caught red-handed trying to start flower revolutions in China "Jasmine" and Belarus "White". In the case of Euromaidan they were able to succeed with the help of radical nationalists and nazis from Western Ukraine.

The regular conscripted soldiers refused to be part of these actions, so in order to get soldiers who would at least attempt follow orders, they had to recruit in extremist nazis and radicals from Western Ukraine into special units. There are rumours of "Akademi" (aka Blackwater) also being there. Some US army rations and misc. bits and bobs have been found and people report hearing American accented English spoken. Some ex-moslem extremists, turned Russian patriots under Kadirov (Chechens) appear to have taken it upon themselves to assist the separatists as well.

I for one have changed my view on this, and now I support the whole Novorossiya region to return to Russia. I wonder what Putin is waiting for.
Kiev had 20 years to convince people in the South and East of the country that Ukraine might work out for them, but they have failed, and now they are killing people in Donbass, in Odessa, in Mariupol.

If Putin won't help them, then I think they should go it alone. That area is the same size as many mid sized European countries, and it's got the population to support a state as well. Anyone who doesn't want to be part of it, would obviously have to move or put up.

And surprise, surprise, yet another oligarch was just chosen as president of Ukraine. The definition of madness is to continue doing the same thing again and again, expecting a different result.

What the country needs is not a greedy and corrupt oligarch, but a nationbuilder and somebody who cares about the people and not money or power.

Last edited by martienne (2014-05-27 09:15:31)

RobertDyck · 2014-05-27 11:49:52

On the other forum, the guy in West Ukraine has been posting updates. Yesterday...

PostFactum wrote:

http://inforesist.org/glava-lnr-obyavil … ideru-dnr/
Chapter LNR declared war leader DNR:
DNR leaders were shameful cowards and traitors. Prevent troops sweep Donetsk invaders - a crime Pushilin and his people against the people of the People's Republic of Donetsk . This betrayal - with emotional self-proclaimed leader of the statement of Lugansk 's Republic Valery swamp.
Chapter quasi LC smashed to smithereens Denis Pushilin , leader of another tumor on the map of Ukraine , DNR , for the fact that he did not have adequate resistance Ukrainian troops.
At this outrage main separatist Lugansk region has not ended. He proclaimed the People's Republic of Donetsk guide persona non grata on the territory of their "state" .
- According to the laws of war , as traitors to their own people , they are subject to liquidation - said swamp. Chapter DNR he called man outlawed and declared war on him .

Today...

PostFactum wrote:

So today:
1. It's not a secret that Ukrainians have a new president, Petro Poroshenko - he decided to sell all his business, as he said "Everything that I want to do for nearest 5 years is to be president of Ukraine".
2. As the result of Donetsk battle few kamazes of terrorists were destroyed, more than 50 terrorists are dead, few civilians dead too. Ukrainian army has few wounded guys.
3. Donetsk morgue is overloaded with bodies of terrorists, they are in panic, because many of them are Russian citizens and soldiers from Chechen republic. If Ukrainians will get this bodies, Putin will feel very uncomfortable. SBU captured a conversation between leader of separatists and someone from Russia, guy from Russia said that bodies must be destroyed in any case. He recommended to blow up city morgues.
4. New terrorists from Slovyansk arrived to Donetsk and made their base in one of schools, school is surrounded by Ukrainian army.
5. On Ukrainian border was fight between Ukrainian border police and armed guys without any signs on clothes. They were moving by kamazes, cars and bus. Border police said that they saw near 50 kamazes full of people. One car and bus were shut down, one terrorist is seriously wounded. The others entered Ukraine in a way of Antracit city. Russians say that they didn't see anything on their side of border.
6. Russian media imagine a lot of fairy tales about Ukraine, I was laughing hard: Americans are here and help us, we kill our people and those who don't want to fight with Russians etc.
7. Terrorists are in panic and some of them started working with SBU and Ukrainian forces: they tell about positions, weapons and quantity of terrorists.
8. Ukrainian forces rush and eliminate separatists all the time.
9. Journalists say that Ukrainian forces and SBU received a objective from government not to capture separatist, just eliminate them. Forces and SBU said that this is not true. I don't know if that's true too, but since last 3 days only one terrorist was captured.
10. Separatists put 2 bags on heads of Ukrainian cops in Gorlivka and shoot them down for high treason to DNR.
11. LNR said to DNR that they declared war to each other, but I have some doubts about it.
12. Separatists shoot down inhabitants of Donbass and say that it was done by Ukrainian forces.
13. Web site of Ukrainian election department was attacked from Russia.
14. Ukrainian forces use helicopters, armoured vehicles, planes and newest weapons.
15. Terrorist training base was destroyed by Ukrainian forces, it was located 700 meters near Russian-Ukrainian border.
16. One guy in internet blog said "They showed us Russian spring, now we will show them hot Ukrainian summer" I hope that's true.

RobertDyck · 2014-05-27 11:58:05

karov wrote:

I live at the Black sea. It stretches vast under my balcony.

Possibilities are: Crimea, Russia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Georgia. Where are you?

martienne · 2014-05-27 13:15:06

RobertDyck wrote:

On the other forum, the guy in West Ukraine has been posting updates.

Well if he's in Western Ukraine he's got nothing to worry about, does he?

He's got his president in parliament; his buddies got cookies from Victoria Nuland; he can speak his language to his hearts content and he get to watch the Russian speakers in Ukraine get it, on TV. And a few Nazi statues to admire to boot.
And nobody's going to shoot him or his family if he goes out celebrating a national holiday.

His big let-down will come when they realise that by alienating Russia, they cut off their best chances of sorting out their finances. While EU isn't even going to dream about letting Ukraine in, for more reasons than what this comment field allows posting.

Meanwhile, in the Donbass and elsewhere in South-Eastern Ukraine, hundreds have died, mainly civilians, buildings are destroyed - yesterday.

RobertDyck · 2014-05-27 13:23:03

From a Canadian who reads news...

Goober911 wrote:

http://www.dw.de/ukraine-army-regains-c … a-17666122
Ukraine troops have regained control of the airport in the eastern city of Donetsk from pro-Moscow separatists. The European security watchdog, OSCE, has lost contact with a four-man team near the city
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/arti … 01001.html
Ukraine's announcement Tuesday that it is quitting the Commonwealth of Independent States would be the last nail in the coffin of the Kremlin's Moscow-centered integration project built on the bones of the Soviet Union, analysts said.
Ukraine's Foreign Ministry has filed paperwork on the country's departure from the CIS with the country's parliament, the Verkhovna Rada, acting ministry head Andrii Deshchytsia said, Itar-Tass reported.
Ukraine's newly elected President Petro Poroshenko had not commented on the matter as of this story's publication.
Russia has alternative integration schemes for the post-Soviet space, but in the absence of Ukraine, they are likely to remain opportunistic alliances whose members — mostly Central Asian nations — would be looking for Russian money but not strategic affiliation with Moscow, experts said.

Goober911 wrote:

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/05/26/opini … ?hpt=hp_t1
Although Moscow has already signalled, on all levels, that it is prepared to give the new Ukrainian leader a chance, and a possible visit to Russia in June has already been mentioned.
But, ironically, the biggest challenge facing Poroshenko in the next several months comes not from Russia or the so-called separatists in the east but from Ukraine's very own oligarchs, who now see the newly-elected president as a potential threat to their business empires.
It was one thing when Poroshenko was just a candidate, but once that inauguration comes, he will have the power to not only to put financial pressure on the oligarchs but also to order their arrest and put them in prison for the many sins they have committed. And the example of Tymoshenko ending up in the slammer in the times of President Yanukovich must be still fresh in their minds.
Make no mistake, the oligarchs with their vast wealth, their personal armies and their people in the government machine, the police and the intelligence services will not stay idle. The horse trading and the scratching of backs was going on ever since Poroshenko emerged as the favorite for the presidency.
But that doesn't mean he can't be pragmatic and go back on his promises. And it sure doesn't mean that the rest will keep their word as well. Especially as some of the oligarchs actually prefer a situation of instability and uncertainty, as they thrive under such conditions and find it easier to jostle for power.

martienne · 2014-05-27 14:04:42

RobertDyck wrote:

@martienne: Your profile says you're in the EU. So that narrows it down to Romania or Bulgaria. Assuming a major city, that would be Constanţa, Varna, or Burgas.

It wasn't directed to me. I don't live on the Black Sea - it was the user Karov who said that he does, and his profile says he's in Bulgaria.

The reason I say EU in my profile is because I am from a mixed background. I grew up in two different countries, and now I live in a third country. So it's hard to label myself, and it confuses people - EU covers it fine.

Last edited by martienne (2014-05-27 14:14:09)

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-05-27 18:57:40

martienne wrote:

116 burned alive in the Union building in Odessa, by sympathisers of the Kiev government.

And how many crimes have been committed by black men and boys in the last year? Prejudice is prejudice, it doesn't matter whether its toward a particular race or ethnic group. So you saying some people are a member of group X and did a bad thing, so all members of group X are bad!

martienne wrote:

Government forces fire into a crowd in Mariupol, on Peace Day and kill 48 people.
100 killed yesterday, as the Kiev government attacks Slovjansk and Donetsk. Ambulances attacked while driving survivors to the hospitals, and survivors executed point blank.

This sounds like sort of German Propaganda that led up to World War II, first they vilify the country they are about to invade with a bunch of unfavorable news stories, and then they invade, classic Hitler!

martienne wrote:

This extreme violence is not carried out by regular conscripts or professional soldiers in the UA army. It's either mercenaries, or extremists that were drafted because nobody else would fire on their own countrymen.
Go ahead, Tom Kalbfus - let's hear how you justify these mass murderers, in a country that you don't really understand.... but where the USA has an agenda that you automatically support...
That's the new "democratic" government that was supported by the EU and USA, doing this. Everybody with half a braincell in their head know that this was about getting a foot-hold into Ukraine, for NATO; trying to score a point against Russia and doing yet another "colour/flower revolution".

Civil Wars are ugly things, even America's Civil War had Union soldiers burning Southern Farms and Plantations so they could not support the Confederate Army. So do you think because of that, we should have let the South keep its slaves?

martienne wrote:

Pathetic CIA plotters have been caught red-handed trying to start flower revolutions in China "Jasmine" and Belarus "White". In the case of Euromaidan they were able to succeed with the help of radical nationalists and nazis from Western Ukraine.

Well that kind of fits because we also aided Communists in fighting Nazis in World War II, should we have with held that aid because the Communists were not nice and violated humans rights killing many innocent human beings?

You know, I wish the United States invented the atomic bomb in 1938, that way World War II would have been preempted, and following the pattern, the US would keep the atomic bomb and not use it until some other countries stole its secrets, then we'd have a nuclear armed Japan, Germany, Soviet Union. Instead of a two Superpower cold war, we'd have a four superpower cold war with a Germany stuck within its borders and unable to expand, they'll just commit Cold War intrigue against the Soviets, diverting the Soviets from such endeavors such as spreading Revolution to Korea and Vietnam. If Germany can't conquer Europe because of countervailing nuclear forces supported by the USA and Soviet Union, then it will just have to learn to get along within its own borders and Hitler would eventually die if he isn't overthrown or assassinated before then. I think saving 50 million lives would be worth the price of keeping the Axis powers around, as fighting WWII was a high price to pay in getting rid of them.

If Ukraine can be used as a coubnterweight to an expansionist Russia, that could only be good thing, they aren't going anywhere because of nuclear weapons. Nukes freeze borders and prevent the sort of border changes that occurred during and immediately after World War II.

martienne wrote:

The regular conscripted soldiers refused to be part of these actions, so in order to get soldiers who would at least attempt follow orders, they had to recruit in extremist nazis and radicals from Western Ukraine into special units. There are rumours of "Akademi" (aka Blackwater) also being there. Some US army rations and misc. bits and bobs have been found and people report hearing American accented English spoken. Some ex-moslem extremists, turned Russian patriots under Kadirov (Chechens) appear to have taken it upon themselves to assist the separatists as well.

How did you know the Nazis didn't act on their own initiative? Nazis do sometimes do that you know. And even if they are Nazis, I'm sure they don't want to die any more than we do!

martienne wrote:

I for one have changed my view on this, and now I support the whole Novorossiya region to return to Russia. I wonder what Putin is waiting for.

Maybe he doesn't want to die in a nuclear war! This isn't the same world as in 1938 after all, nukes limit imperial ambitions.

martienne wrote:

Kiev had 20 years to convince people in the South and East of the country that Ukraine might work out for them, but they have failed, and now they are killing people in Donbass, in Odessa, in Mariupol.

Well in that case, no one is stopping them from leaving. Lots of people left Europe for America in the 19th and early 20th centuries, but the United States didn't annex any European countries! What is Putin's excuse?

martienne wrote:

If Putin won't help them, then I think they should go it alone. That area is the same size as many mid sized European countries, and it's got the population to support a state as well. Anyone who doesn't want to be part of it, would obviously have to move or put up.

Do you also call on the former Confederate States of the South to give secession another try? Would you like to see the "Stars and Bars" once more raised above the city of Richmond, Virginia? lots of people in the South don't like Obama, especially in Texas! Is Secession the answer for them? Just playing the "Devils Advocate" you realize.

martienne wrote:

And surprise, surprise, yet another oligarch was just chosen as president of Ukraine. The definition of madness is to continue doing the same thing again and again, expecting a different result.
What the country needs is not a greedy and corrupt oligarch, but a nationbuilder and somebody who cares about the people and not money or power.

Out of who's nations does Putin build his Russia? Wouldn't it be better to colonize Mars?

RobertDyck · 2014-05-28 09:10:07

PostFactum wrote:

So today:
1. Ukraine begins procedure of moving out of CIS. Government says that CIS is useless fake with Russian heading.
2. Russia says that they are going to cut off gas supply to Ukraine on next Tuesday.
3. Russians want Ukraine to stop anti-terrorist operation on East and call this was a "civil war".
4. SBU captured commander of part of DNR terrorists.
5. In Odesa were captured few guys and their commander who were moving to Russia, as they said, they were going to visit there terrorist training camp.
6. Separatists were attacking houses in the city of Slovyansk with artillery, few people dead.
7. No serious fights today, few block posts of Terrorists have been destroyed. Ukrainian army rushes.
8. Russia says that they are looking for ways to evacuate kids from East Ukraine.
9. Klitchko has become mayor of Kyiv.
10. Donetsk morgue with bodies of separatists.

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-05-28 14:42:56

Well if you start a civil war, you might get killed, that's not terribly surprising. I bet if there were some Neo-Confederates that took up arms against the US government, some of them might end up dead too. You know if they wanted to remain alive, they could have just left for Russia, this civil war stuff is dangerous!

Terraformer · 2014-05-28 16:31:35

So... it's acceptable to go kill people if they live somewhere that you want as your own?

Tom, Britain called; they want their 13 colonies back.

Tom Kalbfus · 2014-05-28 19:39:27

The Civil War wasn't the Kiev Government's idea, the protestors could just leave the government buildings and go home and the Civil War and the killings would just stop there.

Interesting that you mention the 13 colonies. You see the Confederate Battle Flag has 13 stars on it too, when the Confederacy rebelled, they did not rebel for some other country that wanted their colonies back, just as Russia took back Crimea. the Confederacy didn't want to be part of any country except for the one they created for themselves, and I think the British didn't want 13 slave states added to their Empire in any event, they already banned slavery! The rebels in Ukraine are nothing but a cat's paw for Putin, the rebellion wasn't their idea, they were just following orders from Putin, it is not a legitimate rebellion but an invasion disguised as a rebellion!

Last edited by Tom Kalbfus (2014-05-28 19:40:23)

RobertDyck · 2014-05-28 21:41:05

I don't know how this will ultimately be resolved. The rebels in east Ukraine won't win. The vast majority of people there want to remain Ukraine. The rebellion will be squashed, it's just a question of how many people will be hurt in the process. But my first question is Crimea.

Crimea isn't like any other part of Ukraine. It wasn't part of Ukraine when the Soviet Union absorbed it. You could argue the Russia should never have given it to them. But there were several problems with the so-called referendum. Russian troops invaded, not from Russia but from Russian navy bases in Crimea. They surrounded Ukrainian military bases, capturing them. Crimea was captured by the military first. After that, before the referendum, Russian troops did retreat back to their bases, but pro-Russian militias controlled the streets. Police or Ukrainian officials were not in charge, in fact Ukrainian election observers were not even allowed in Crimea. Russian troops raided a Ukrainian oil field outside Crimea the day before the referendum. And that same day the Russian military engaged in a major exercise on the border with Ukraine. Ballots were not secret, everyone could see how a voter had voted. And pro-Russian gunmen stood outside the door of every voting location. A giant "X" was painted on the house of every ethnic Tartar. So everything about the referendum was bogus.

But there was so much support for Russia, that if the referendum was done correctly, there would probably still be more than 2/3rd.

If Crimea were to join Russia legitimately, then all Ukrainian military bases in Crimea should have remained Ukrainian. Russia had rented land for their navy bases, Ukraine could now rent land for theirs. But that didn't happen. Russia just took all Ukrainian military bases, including ships, helicopters, fighter jets, tanks, armoured personnel carriers, assault rifles, bullets, everything military. Furthermore, my friend in West Ukraine pointed out a news report that said Russia took one trillion "griven". That's his spelling, Wikipedia says their currency is hryvnia or hryvnya, but correctly spelled in their alphabet as гривня. That was money in banks in Crimea. The quoted news report claims Russia refuses to return it. Based on today's exchange rate, that's $91 Billion Canadian dollars, or $84 Billion US dollars.

But I think more valuable are navy ships. Quoting Wikipedia

According to Navy Commander Vice Admiral Yuriy Ilyin, at the beginning of 2013, the fleet had 11 warships fully ready to perform complex tasks and ten aircraft and 31 supply vessels in working order.
As of March 24, 2014, most of the Ukrainian ships in Sevastopol were taken by the Russian Black Sea Fleet, including several aircraft and other equipment.

So now what? Reasonable resolution would be Russia keeps Crimea, but gives back the Ukranian navy, and applies the money from banks to Ukrainian debt. Somehow I don't see that happening. President Obama keeps talking about Russia giving back Crimea, but I don't see that ever happening.

As for the rest of Ukraine, it's industry was a major part of the Russia military-industrial complex. The new president has already given notice that Ukraine is leaving the Commonwealth of Independent States, which was the organization of former Soviet countries. Russia will want to retain that industry. As a businessman, Ukraine's president understands the need for business. Could be he'll keep that work. But if Ukraine were to try to cut off Russia entirely, then the trouble won't end.

I want a nice happy world, no cold war. Everybody just happy. Then my house is safe. And we could use Energia to go to Mars.

Last edited by RobertDyck (2014-06-01 22:32:13)

RobertDyck · 2014-05-28 23:35:35

Details
Returned to Ukrainian navy:
1 Corvette (plus 1 under construction)
1 Fast attack vessel (missile boat)
1 Landing craft tank

Status unknown:
2 Corvettes (scheduled to be returned)
1 Patrol boat
1 Landing craft
2 Diving vessels
1 Transport barge
1 Research vessel
1 Minesweeper
1 Command ship

Still Ukrainian (was in Crete during Crimea invasion):
1 Frigate

Sounds a lot more valuable than the money in Crimea banks.

::Edit:: Response by individual in West Ukraine...

PostFactum wrote:

All stuff in very bad conditions, Russians broke everything that could be broken. In addiction it was very old before.

Last edited by RobertDyck (2014-05-29 10:19:00)

RobertDyck · 2014-05-29 10:19:44

PostFactum wrote:

So today:
1. Ukrainian army helicopter was shoot down by Russians, in helicopter was General of army. Government officially said that 10 people dead, one survived.
2. Separatists captured Ukrainian army base.
3. Captured terrorist said that all commanders of Separatists have been trained in Russian Rostov oblast.
4. Separatists keep robbing houses and shops.
5. No official info about dead from both sides.
P.S. Something strange is going on in Donezk, separatists surrounded main city government building (It's their city base), guys with weapons guard it. Separatists take off their own barricades. I can't explain that.

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