To Mars in 2018?

louis · 2012-05-26 13:30:24

Mark Friedenbach wrote:

Terraformer wrote:
What's SpaceX valued at now? If/when it goes public, how much could Musk get while still retaining a majority stake?
I'm not sure what it's currently valued at, but I find it highly unlikely that they will go public any time soon, at least prior to their first manned mission to Mars. Investors could always cash out via secondary markets, and between the Tesla and Solar City IPO's Elon will have no shortage of cash.
Going public would be a burden for SpaceX--they would have new shareholder pressures to focus on quarterly growth, which doesn't align well with being a nimble long-term growth company with an eye on Mars.

I agree. I think Musk wants to retain control - in order that he can realise his vision of establishing humans on Mars.

My understanding is that the income from NASA ISS supply and satellite launches is going to be in the 100s of millions of dollars per annum. As I indicated above, once one can generate that sort of income on a regular basis you can also service a lot of debt. So Space X should be able to borrow billions from the banks over the next 10 years or so. I would be surprised as well if Musk couldn't get some big time philanthropists involved in the project as well.

He could well have access to maybe 5-10 billion dollars in ten years' time, enough to drive the project through to a successful conclusion.

SpaceNut · 2012-05-26 20:15:43

What would it take to do a tethered drop from orbital platform of the crews capsule into the atmosphere such that once the capsule is down far enough for parachutes to deploy tat the orbiting platform does a burn to slow the capsule before releasing it from the tether....

louis · 2012-05-27 04:42:31

SpaceNut wrote:

What would it take to do a tethered drop from orbital platform of the crews capsule into the atmosphere such that once the capsule is down far enough for parachutes to deploy tat the orbiting platform does a burn to slow the capsule before releasing it from the tether....

I thought there was a problem with the aerodynamics of large parachute loads on Mars. I think the biggest we've dropped by parachute is something like 700 kgs if I remember rightly. A human capsule would have to be a few tonnes, right? Or are you thinking of a more radical approach where you send down the crew in little survival capsules that might allow them to live for a couple of hours, before they find a pre-landed hab?

GW Johnson · 2012-05-27 10:28:14

I'm guessing there might be a way to land a man on Mars in something like a Dragon capsule, using a parachute and a lot of rocket braking with the Super Draco thrusters. But it's a one way trip.

So, how does he get back to orbit, to go home?

IMHO, it is a practical Mars lander that is the critical design lack that we have, as regards sending men to Mars. I don't see anybody working on one, either.

GW

louis · 2012-05-27 10:54:25

GW Johnson wrote:

I'm guessing there might be a way to land a man on Mars in something like a Dragon capsule, using a parachute and a lot of rocket braking with the Super Draco thrusters. But it's a one way trip.
So, how does he get back to orbit, to go home?
IMHO, it is a practical Mars lander that is the critical design lack that we have, as regards sending men to Mars. I don't see anybody working on one, either.
GW

Doesn't Musk have the concept of the Red Dragon going to the surface (with retro rockets) and also ascending from there (presumably after refuelling???)

This interview is interesting by the way. Not sure I've seen this before:

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/ … 0DEFAD15BA

Musk says they could land the first person on Mars by 2021.

He is clear he wants a "self-sustaining base" on Mars.

GW Johnson · 2012-05-27 15:48:22

All the Dragon data that I have seen says there is 1290 kg (1.29 metric tons) of hydrazine and NTO in the capsule itself, without the trunk. You have to shed the trunk to use the heat shield. No trunk during powered landing (but there are landing legs adding to the inert mass!!!).

Figure a capsule around 5 or 6 tons, with 1.29 tons of fuel. Use about 307 Isp for hydrazine/NTO in near-vacuum, but knock your theoretical delta-vee down by a multiplicative factor of 0.71 for the cant angle of the Super Dracos. Even with a parachute assisting during the last part of the descent, that's really pushing a successful landing.

That kind of delta-vee is entirely insufficient for an ascent, even if fully refueled on the surface somehow. You've got gravity and drag losses cutting it further (I'd hazard a guess of a 1.05 divide-by knockdown factor for 0.38 gee and very thin "air"). You still have the 0.71 cosine multiplicative knockdown factor for the cant of the nozzles.

Dragon might serve as the manned cabin on something much larger. It just can't do the two-way lander job all by itself. Rocket equation physics simply precludes that. If Musk is planning to use Dragon as part of a manned lander, then he has a big landing stage, or multiple stages more likely, up his sleeve that we haven't seen yet. (Or maybe he doesn't. Yet. But he will.)

There's another company out there that I personally know hasn't revealed everything they want to do just yet. I'm supposed to help them do it when the time comes. I suspect all the rest are similar in their secrecy about plans and schemes.

GW

SpaceNut · 2012-05-28 07:28:37

I was thinking radically in a sort of modified skycrane but using the dropping platform location as the ship in orbit lowering the capsule towards the landing site removing the mach 2 plus speed from descent via the tether cable and the speed reduction from an orbital reverse thurst....

RGClark · 2012-06-10 16:16:31

louis wrote:

Thanks guys - looks like the Sunday Times took a "could" and made it a "will".

Are you sure that was a manned mission they were talking about in the Sunday Times article? Musk has spoken about getting a manned mission to Mars in the 10 to 20 year time frame.
BTW, another very important use of the Falcon Heavy would be for a Mars Sample Return mission. This has long been considered the Holy Grail of planetary missions by NASA:

SPACEX FALCON HEAVY ROCKET: SHORTCUT TO MARS?
Scheduled for a 2013 maiden flight, the new rocket could make a Mars sample return mission a reality.
By Irene Klotz
Tue Apr 5, 2011 04:52 PM ET
http://news.discovery.com/space/spacex- … 10405.html

The problem was NASA had previously estimated the costs would be in the $10 billion range. But with the Falcon Heavy costing only in the range of $100 million, and using a couple of Centaur upper stages at a cost in the range of $30 million each, it could probably could be done as a low-cost "Discovery class" mission.

I'll write about it in the next couple of days on my blog.

Bob Clark

louis · 2012-06-10 17:23:54

RGClark wrote:

louis wrote:
Thanks guys - looks like the Sunday Times took a "could" and made it a "will".
Are you sure that was a manned mission they were talking about in the Sunday Times article? Musk has spoken about getting a manned mission to Mars in the 10 to 20 year time frame.
BTW, another very important use of the Falcon Heavy would be for a Mars Sample Return mission. This has long been considered the Holy Grail of planetary missions by NASA:
SPACEX FALCON HEAVY ROCKET: SHORTCUT TO MARS?
Scheduled for a 2013 maiden flight, the new rocket could make a Mars sample return mission a reality.
By Irene Klotz
Tue Apr 5, 2011 04:52 PM ET
http://news.discovery.com/space/spacex- … 10405.html
The problem was NASA had previously estimated the costs would be in the $10 billion range. But with the Falcon Heavy costing only in the range of $100 million, and using a couple of Centaur upper stages at a cost in the range of $30 million each, it could probably could be done as a low-cost "Discovery class" mission.
I'll write about it in the next couple of days on my blog.

Bob Clark

No, I am not sure - the article was short and short on detail.

One thing I am certain of is that Musk has his eyes firmly fixed on the prize. He knows if he gets humans to Mars he won't just be a footnote to the development of e commerce, electric cars and commercial space launches - he will be writing himself into history in a big way on a permanent basis.

I think when you look at Space X you see it's all really geared to that ultimate prize - it's certainly why he got into the business in the first place.

SpaceNut · 2016-04-28 20:34:17

bump number 6 for red dragon....

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#26 2012-05-26 13:30:24

Re: To Mars in 2018?

#27 2012-05-26 20:15:43

Re: To Mars in 2018?

#28 2012-05-27 04:42:31

Re: To Mars in 2018?

#29 2012-05-27 10:28:14

Re: To Mars in 2018?

#30 2012-05-27 10:54:25

Re: To Mars in 2018?

#31 2012-05-27 15:48:22

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#32 2012-05-28 07:28:37

Re: To Mars in 2018?

#33 2012-06-10 16:16:31

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#34 2012-06-10 17:23:54

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#35 2016-04-28 20:34:17

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