Armstrong Lunar Outpost - status

Grypd · 2008-05-15 07:29:43

When we go back to the Moon we will want to be able to increase our power supply from the materials we find there.

Though ultra thin pv coatings have shown to be very efficient they are also weak and prone to damage from radiation. But much more importantly they require laboratory conditions and materials hard to find on the Moon.

One of the most common elements on the Moon is Silicon and we will be processing it just to get Oxygen. The pure Silicon we have just made can then be used to make the simple amorphous Silicon solar cells. These are very rugged and more or less immune to radiation damage. They can be placed on boards of lunar derived metal sheet.

So there efficiency may only be at working use about 5% but the benefit is that we have tested what it would be like to manufacture these cells and we can easily make it an automated process and so we can just keep increasing the power capacity of a base.

Another thing to increse there ruggedness is to not make them sun following. Just place them on A frames and occasionly go past and dust them.

bobunf · 2008-05-15 07:38:53

I think you’ll find the information at this site: http://hobbiton.thisside.net/rovermanual

The maximum power produced by the Spirit and Opportunity rovers' 1.2 square meter power arrays is 140 watts. This works out to about 19% efficiency. Keep in mind that this is almost never achieved because of time of day, seasonality, positioning issues, dust, atmospheric absorption, temperature and other issues.

Bob

cIclops · 2008-05-15 08:05:48

When we go back to the Moon we will want to be able to increase our power supply from the materials we find there.
Though ultra thin pv coatings have shown to be very efficient they are also weak and prone to damage from radiation. But much more importantly they require laboratory conditions and materials hard to find on the Moon.
One of the most common elements on the Moon is Silicon and we will be processing it just to get Oxygen. The pure Silicon we have just made can then be used to make the simple amorphous Silicon solar cells. These are very rugged and more or less immune to radiation damage. They can be placed on boards of lunar derived metal sheet.
So there efficiency may only be at working use about 5% but the benefit is that we have tested what it would be like to manufacture these cells and we can easily make it an automated process and so we can just keep increasing the power capacity of a base.
Another thing to increse there ruggedness is to not make them sun following. Just place them on A frames and occasionly go past and dust them.

Thanks. Yes, if this works it would be a very sensible way to proceed and effectively provide unlimited amounts of power when coupled with energy storage systems - for example fuel cells. However there are at least three preconditions:

1. There is sufficient power already in place to support this manufacturing and construction activity. This means an initial power plant has to be established using a system produced an Earth and transported to the Moon.

2. Regolith mining and handling technology is available.

3. Unless there are significant advances in robotics, there will need to be enough crew time available to establish and maintain the solar panel fabrication and deployment facility. This will be a trade off between highly expensive crew time, extremely expensive to develop and test manufacturing systems and the value and requirements for additional surface power within the context of the Outpost timeline.

louis · 2008-05-15 09:33:11

Grypd -

I tend to agree with you - I am proposing ultra thin for the initial landing and (in the case of Mars) maybe one or two follow up missions. Long term, to avoid transit of mass, we should be looking to develop ISRU solar panel manufacture. The fact that we may only be able to produce low efficiency panels to begin with should not discourage us from doing so. We'll have plenty of land and time to indulge in low efficiency production.

It's important we free up some mass to allow the import of more complicated and specialist CNC machines and robots which can help create a comprehensive (but small scale) industrial infrastructure replicating nearly all the processes found in large and complex industrial societies on earth.

bobunf · 2008-05-15 10:16:14

I’m not qualified to determine which would be simpler and cheaper:
> a PV panel manufacturing plant and the infrastructure to mine and process the raw materials
> or a generator connected to a steam turbine and mirrors.

It might make sense to get the generator and steam turbine from Earth, then all you’d need would be mirrors, which can be made from all sorts of stuff.

And 40% efficiency with 19th century technology.

Bob

Grypd · 2008-05-15 10:17:56

1. There is sufficient power already in place to support this manufacturing and construction activity. This means an initial power plant has to be established using a system produced an Earth and transported to the Moon.

That is a given. The first lunar outpost will rely on a power plant sent from Earth and it is likely to be a combination of a nuclear derived plant and solar cells. Still the first available opportunity will allow us to place solar cells on a peak of eternal light. Chances are that it will be a specially derived payload sent from earth that is either landed on the spot or transported there to be set up. We will then decide where our first permanent base will be and one of the main considerations is access to minerals and of course solar energy.

2. Regolith mining and handling technology is available.

Regolith certainly for the first foot is very loose after that it is very compacted. There a lot of threads on just how we can move regolith and I frankly do not see it as a problem. We will need to process about 10 tons a year to get the oxygen we need out of Silicane but that will actually be 10 times as much processed silicon that we will need for increasing a solar power grid by a MW a year.

3. Unless there are significant advances in robotics, there will need to be enough crew time available to establish and maintain the solar panel fabrication and deployment facility. This will be a trade off between highly expensive crew time, extremely expensive to develop and test manufacturing systems and the value and requirements for additional surface power within the context of the Outpost timeline.

That is not really the case Robotics has advanced to the point where they are very available for us to aid work on the Moon. Actually it is at the stage where using telerobotics and the very short communication lag that we can put a lot of the construction and base development onto robotic hands all controlled from Earth.

All manufacturing on the Moon will be highly automated and supplying the resources these factories and extraction systems need will be the job of telerobotic systems. When it comes down to the deployment of manufactured solar panels robots similar to the Robonaut using human space tools will do the job.

cIclops · 2008-05-15 10:37:12

That is not really the case Robotics has advanced to the point where they are very available for us to aid work on the Moon. Actually it is at the stage where using telerobotics and the very short communication lag that we can put a lot of the construction and base development onto robotic hands all controlled from Earth.
All manufacturing on the Moon will be highly automated and supplying the resources these factories and extraction systems need will be the job of telerobotic systems. When it comes down to the deployment of manufactured solar panels robots similar to the Robonaut using human space tools will do the job.

Not really. The most advanced space based manipulator system is the newly installed Dextre robot on the ISS. Dextre is designed to replace standard units on a well defined structure in free space. Dexter is yet to be tested. The surface of the Moon has none of those properties. The Moon is also covered with highly abrasive dust. Perhaps truly dexterous robots will be available in the 2020s but so far they have proven extremely difficult to design.

Yes, these lunar facilities will have to be automated, that will be hard enough to achieve. These systems have to work reliably in a low gravity, hard vacuum with big temperature changes, and handle tons of abrasive material. What's even more difficult to build are the robotic systems that will install, service and repair them. This is all many years ahead of current technology, it would be very risky to assume that this technology will be available in the 2020s.

Grypd · 2008-05-15 11:17:18

Here is the Robonaut

Not really. The most advanced space based manipulator system is the newly installed Dextre robot on the ISS. Dextre is designed to replace standard units on a well defined structure in free space. Dexter is yet to be tested. The surface of the Moon has none of those properties.

We already utilise robots in mining and construction. Dextre is a case of space politics and a lot of delays. Its capabilities have been greatly surpassed now. NASA actually designed the Robonaut to do what Dextre does but better.

The Moon is also covered with highly abrasive dust. Perhaps truly dexterous robots will be available in the 2020s but so far they have proven extremely difficult to design.

Since Dextre has been designed we now use robots to do telerobotic operations on people. Robots can now navigate themselves around towns and finally a good example of just how well older designs can do just look at the MERs they have been able to survive the Martian Dust which may well be worse than the Moons and operate for years. The one great advantage to the Moon is that we intend to do maintenance on robots there and this will solve a lot of problems.

The technology we need will not be ready in the 2020s it is already here.

cIclops · 2008-05-15 13:37:07

Straying OT again, this topic is really about the status of Lunar Outpost ...

Thanks for the Robonaut link. The 14 degree of freedom capability sounds interesting but whether its has the capability to work reliably and effectively on the lunar surface is far from clear. Robotic repairs of HST were considered recently but were dropped because the technology wasn't ready. Repairing mining and production machinery on the lunar surface will be far more complex unless there are replacement units for every likely failure. Designing machines to be repaired like this is not easy and very expensive. The repair system tends to be more complex and therefore less reliable than the system it repairs, so it will probably be broken when it's needed.

No automated repair has ever been done in space, the nearest was a battery changeout test on the recent ASTRO mission. So the question is how much will cost to develop and transport such a complex manufacturing capability system to the Moon compared with the cost of simply sending additional solar or nuclear power plants? The technology is not ready and may not be ready even by 2030.

Which mines are fully automated today?

louis · 2008-05-15 21:20:51

I think you’ll find the information at this site: http://hobbiton.thisside.net/rovermanual
The maximum power produced by the Spirit and Opportunity rovers' 1.2 square meter power arrays is 140 watts. This works out to about 19% efficiency. Keep in mind that this is almost never achieved because of time of day, seasonality, positioning issues, dust, atmospheric absorption, temperature and other issues.
Bob

Bob -

I dispute the 140 watts figure. The Rover solar panels have been quoted as achieving (best result) 900 watt hours over four hours i.e. 225 watts - which would give you about 30% efficiency. 140 watts may be an average.

Thanks for the fantastic reference - but that looks like the pre launch spec - actual results were better than predicted.

louis · 2008-05-15 21:25:13

I’m not qualified to determine which would be simpler and cheaper:
> a PV panel manufacturing plant and the infrastructure to mine and process the raw materials
> or a generator connected to a steam turbine and mirrors.
It might make sense to get the generator and steam turbine from Earth, then all you’d need would be mirrors, which can be made from all sorts of stuff.
And 40% efficiency with 19th century technology.
Bob

Bob -

Interested you refer to mirrors and steam turbines - I was a strong advocate of that approach when I first got involved in this area of discussion. However, I more or less abandoned that when I found out about ultra thin PV film (which obviously avoids the need for mass-intensive and dangerous steam turbines). Nevertheless I agree we should keep this under review. Reflective foil is very light and easily assembled. It would probably be less susceptible to environmental degradation on the Mars surface than ultra thin PV film.

Grypd · 2008-05-17 10:25:35

A lot of our manufacturing techniques on the Moon will be to utilise the free power of the sun. Certainly focusing the sunlight will give very high tempatures and a very efficient way to cut materials as well as to cinter road ways and to create structural materials.

The first lunar outposts will utilise these technologies for us to field test and improve these technologies.

cIclops · 2008-05-17 10:51:28

From the text of the 2008 NASA Authorization Act

SEC. 403. LUNAR OUTPOST.
(a) ESTABLISHMENT.—As NASA works toward the establishment of a lunar outpost, NASA shall make no plans that would require a lunar outpost to be occupied to maintain its viability. Any such outpost shall be operable as a human-tended facility capable of remote or autonomous operation for extended periods.
(b) Designation- The United States portion of the first human-tended outpost established on the surface of the Moon shall be designated the `Neil A. Armstrong Lunar Outpost'.
(c) CONGRESSIONAL INTENT.—It is the intent of Congress that NASA shall make use of commercial services to the maximum extent practicable in support of its lunar outpost activities.

louis · 2008-05-17 18:55:23

Yes - an outpost rather than a colony. But I don't care to distinguish too much.

SpaceNut · 2008-05-17 19:43:35

Very interesting CIclops selection to quote in the 2008 NASA Authorization Act.

The statement of establishment can be looked as it being setup by Nasa and maintained but possibly being manned by commercial interests but there appears to be no means other than through the cooperation avenues of the Russian's as they have done with the station tourists for this to occur.

cIclops · 2008-05-18 01:07:03

Yes, and it's even clearer in the section about using commercial services. RKA, ESA and JAXA would all want to send their astronauts to the Outpost. A trip there is going to be very expensive, the ticket price will be beyond everyone else except billionaires and it won't make much sense until the Outpost is fully functional and the basic exploration work is complete.

Commodore · 2008-05-22 19:36:22

We may have to build Fort Armstrong to survive the constant bombardment.

100 Explosions on the Moon... 101... 102... 103...

May 21, 2008: Not so long ago, anyone claiming to see flashes of light on the Moon would be viewed with deep suspicion by professional astronomers. Such reports were filed under "L" … for lunatic.
Not anymore. Over the past two and a half years, NASA astronomers have observed the Moon flashing at them not just once but one hundred times.
"They're explosions caused by meteoroids hitting the Moon," explains Bill Cooke, head of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). "A typical blast is about as powerful as a few hundred pounds of TNT and can be photographed easily using a backyard telescope."

Rune · 2008-05-22 20:01:11

Hi everyone, new guy here, beware!
Seems to me that meteors are low-probabilty issue, but they could be deflected/destroyed by an orbital laser system. Wich, by the way, could double as a "cleaning tool" for space debris and orbital garbage. Such system would need probably several powerful lasers, orbiting almost surely, and incredibly good radar and tracking systems, not to mention its potential weapon capabilities and probable prohibitive cost, but who knows? Maybe one day it will be necessary to have it to "clean up" the place anyway.

Rune. The strangest things have been built.

louis · 2008-05-22 20:56:25

So the Apollo guys were lucky!

Just reinforces the need for regolith covered habitat in my view.

Commodore · 2008-05-22 21:16:07

So the Apollo guys were lucky!
Just reinforces the need for regolith covered habitat in my view.

These explosions don't require oxygen or combustion. Meteoroids hit the moon with tremendous kinetic energy, traveling 30,000 mph or faster. "At that speed, even a pebble can blast a crater several feet wide. The impact heats up rocks and soil on the lunar surface hot enough to glow like molten lava--hence the flash."

With those kind of forces, were really talking about armor. And not just for permanent structures, but for anything exposed. You wouldn't want your accent module turned into swiss cheese.

And we'll probably need an orbital radar system to at least get some warning.

GCNRevenger · 2008-05-22 21:19:40

With those kind of forces, were really talking about armor. And not just for permanent structures, but for anything exposed. You wouldn't want your accent module turned into swiss cheese.
And we'll probably need an orbital radar system to at least get some warning.

Well to some point there is an acceptable risk of possibly getting hit versus cost (and mass) of all this armor, which would have to be exceptionally strong to resist high-speed space rocks.

bobunf · 2008-05-22 23:03:38

“So the Apollo guys were lucky!”

“With those kind of forces, were really talking about armor. And not just for permanent structures, but for anything exposed. You wouldn't want your accent module turned into swiss cheese.

And we'll probably need an orbital radar system to at least get some warning.“

Let’s get some sense of proportion here. The visible half of the moon measures 19 million square kilometers. One hundred meteor strikes in 2½ years works out to an annual probability per square kilometer of about 1 in 500 thousand. The chance that a meteor would strike within half a kilometer of any fixed location on the Moon is less than 1 in 600 thousand per year.

About the same odds as dying in your bathtub each year.

The Apollo astronauts were on the moon a total of about 12 days; so odds of a meteor striking within half a kilometer during their missions were about 1 in 18 million.

Pretty good odds, I’d say.

Bob

cIclops · 2008-05-23 00:54:00

Hi there Rune! and thanks for the warning

Maybe one day far in the future such a system will protect lunar colonies, but the technology doesn't exist today to detect and destroy tiny micro meteorites traveling at 20 kms/sec. Such a system would probably cost more to develop than the entire Lunar program!

From the same source:

"The odds of a direct hit are negligible. If, however, we start building big lunar outposts with lots of surface area, we'll have to carefully consider these statistics and bear in mind the odds of a structure getting hit.
Secondary impacts are the greater concern. When meteoroids strike the Moon, debris goes flying in all directions. A single meteoroid produces a spray consisting of thousands of "secondary" particles all traveling at bullet-like velocities. This could be a problem because, while the odds of a direct hit are low, the odds of a secondary hit may be significantly greater. "Secondary particles smaller than a millimeter could pierce a spacesuit," notes Cooke."

Quantifying the risk will be important work for some time, however, as bobunf suggests the risk may be quite small. Orbital debris in LEO is a real problem today, but shielding and avoidance maneuvers are used to reduce risk to an acceptable level.

Shielding the Outpost and keeping astronauts inside during meteor showers may be sufficient. The Outpost location will also help. The Moon's axial tilt is only about 2° to the ecliptic, so the probability of hits at the South Pole is less as most meteors streams are in the equatorial plane. See how the impact distribution falls off towards the poles.

louis · 2008-05-23 02:16:33

Regolith is armour - otherwise these meteorites would travel to the centre of the Moon! So just pile on the regolith.

cIclops · 2008-05-23 05:31:25

Ironically regolith is produced by the bombardment of micrometeoroids. Yes, it will make good cheap shielding and there's no shortage of it.

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Re: Armstrong Lunar Outpost - status

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