China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US?

comstar03 · 2004-09-20 01:05:30

smurf975,

Don't be arrogant, yes the US has the technological weaponry, be the volume is on china's side. They have the largest standing army number 20x the US Army without doing a general call up that would be 100 - 500x, Even the US military commanders know and doing underestimate what china can do.

China is awakening and the world , including the america are not ready for the country, within 20 years china will be as powerful economically as america, also with the Asian and pacific countries building a union of countries this will add more markets for china to expand and grow.

You don't understand that china will be the biggest spark in the world's economy and may tip Amercia off the top to whom the world looks to for economic guidance.

ANTIcarrot. · 2004-09-20 03:19:00

At this moment Russia and the USA are fighting a war against terrorists.

Actually Russia is fighting a civil war and the US is effecting a regime change. And both are pretty much screwing it up by using heavy handed tactics.

As to China being attacked... They might be strangely flattered. Terrorists tend to only go after the important countries after all.

China could easily dump a couple of million troops into Iraq without noticable impact on their economy or military. Which is kinda a problem really, as the US would oppose such activity.

This may be a major fear for them; China retaliating against a terrorist nation and seizing control of the natural resources as a 'side effect'. If that nation was Saudia Arabia (for instance) whom the US is technically allied with...

ANTIcarrot.

Grypd · 2004-09-20 04:06:49

Don't underestimate the chinese people, government and culture. I wouldn't, china will obtain their goals within their timeframe. Amercia is focusing alot on terrorism and not on what and where the country is going, we are the one's stressing out, We keep building forward like the chinese and when the terrorism head pops up , we clean the floors, ( terminate the terrorists ) and move on.
I read the speech of A. Scharwzenegger that he had at the rep. convention in NY.
In that speech he said that in the 50-60 everyone said that the US should fear the soviets. But it didn't happen the soviets even died.
Also the USA economy would be surpassed by Germany and Japan in the 80ies. This also didn't happen.
So what makes China really more special then the Soviets, German and Japan?
---
I think a terrorist attack in China is just waiting to happen. Why do I think that? Well the inland (west) of China has a lot of different peoples and cultures. Of which some are Islamic. I'm not saying that this is the receipt for a terrorist attack. But one very important aspect is that the Chinese government is dominated by the coastal Chinese people. The others are still kinda of backward/underdeveloped and don't have very much to say in the policies.
Basically China is like a smaller Russia.
So what can happen in Russia it can happen in China.

Japan was a victim of the global slowdown that effected the far east so called tiger economies where Japan had companies in debt to so many Banks. When the slowdown occured these companies could not keep expanding and had to cut costs so slowing the economy which squeezed the banks so increasing pressure on the companies which squeezed the banks and so on

Germany is a different story its growth was stopped by the collapse of the wall. With a unite germany with which half was in a seriously poor condition needing major investment Germany started suffering real cash flow problems. Eventually though Germany will come out of this and with the EU as a support will come out stronger.

deagleninja · 2004-09-20 08:15:38

As to China being attacked... They might be strangely flattered. Terrorists tend to only go after the important countries after all.

Like Spain?

SpaceNut · 2004-09-20 08:26:36

Yes the attacks did persuade the elections and to make them pull there forces out. It was successful in getting them to change there views on involvement in Iraq.

This war is lingering way to long and is made more difficult by the day by all those wishing to control or to change the direction and course that the US has put Iraq's people on of democracy.

With recent hostage taking it even takes longer and runs the chance of more civilians both iraq and of other nations being killed.

deagleninja · 2004-09-21 04:50:34

When you rely on force you only cower the sheep, not the wolves. I know I've said it before, but you can't give people true democracy. This is true in part because you will always have people that reject anything forced on them.

We can take away their guns, lock up violent individuals, but in the end they will simply fight the system from within. I hate to say it but Iraq will never be peaceful now. I don't think a civil war can be avoided, we have simply affected too many people over there by killing so many civilians.

In regards to Spain, the elections were already decided. The majority of nearly every country in the world is against our occupation of Iraq, the bombings in Spain simply made it a landside instead of a relatively close election.

comstar03 · 2004-09-25 01:43:22

Read the review of this RPG Book, because some of the issues contained are current issues in real life america. That talks about china and also the space race of the next 100 years and its an interesting piece of rpg.

http://www.rpgunited.com/review/reviews … Transhuman Society in the Late 21st Century

Grypd · 2004-09-25 12:29:01

Ah yes Steve Jackson games. The really funny thing about this company is that it did a product about future computer hacking that resulted in them being raided by the NSA apparently they where getting close to the mark compared to what the NSA thought.

You could consider this an opinion of how the future will fan out and certainly the transhumanists hope it does. These are the people who want to build private space colonies and to have as little to do with Earth as possible. Frankly for the Transhumanists to get there way we would have to have launch costs reduced by a factor of 1000. But like all science fiction this book has to have quessed the future and it is only time that describes what will really happen. An example of getting it wrong is the film 2001 where Stanley Kubrick did take a lot of time to appear to make the film as realistic as possible and in the hopeful days when it was filmed the architecture and equipment seemed a certainty. Needless to say it was not.

comstar03 · 2004-09-26 03:14:13

Grypd,

What I am trying to say that other people are seeing the growth in china can be a positive or negative depending on the controlling forces in governments of the world. however, its only a matter of time.

Secondly, the forbes richest people in america the top 400 was shown last week, the top 313 are billionaires, and the total weath is more than $1 trillion dollars or 25% of the US GDP in one year.

Do you think globally where 1000+ billionaires exist couldn't build into space, they don't have a good reason YET. As china grows so does the ranks of billionaires and thus the dynamics change as well, of this group.

So, Powerful individuals and Private Enterprise could expand into space the same as countries , it depends on what culture they come from and why they want to go into space.

deagleninja · 2004-09-26 22:33:37

Going to Mars (or anywhere in space for that matter) is only going to get cheaper as new technology replaces the old. What will the world be like when governments answer to super-corporations even more so than they do today? When we have trillionaires, won't just one of them say 'I'd like to live on Mars.'? Settling Mars isn't a matter of 'if' but 'when'. It will happen as sure as the sun rises and sets.

So why must we be so anxious you ask? Why do it in the next ten to twenty years when it will be so hard? Why not wait till it is easy to do and safe?

To answer this let's look at Antartica. There are people living there right now as I write this. But are they terraforming their environment to be more comfortable? No. They aren't allowed to alter Antartica because it is one of the few last pristine environments on Earth.

For the last 10,000 years humans have spread out and settled new lands because lets face it, their old lands are ruined. Eygpt was once a lush and fertile place and now it is desert. Europe is also under the strain of expiring resources. Now America is cutting down its last ancient trees, polluting its water supplies, and running out of room for its garbage.

I fear that we will wait too long to settle Mars. I fear that once we finally do get there we won't go there as frontier folk, but as a few scientist studing the 'last pristine environment'.

SpaceNut · 2004-09-27 08:08:18

Going to Mars (or anywhere in space for that matter) is only going to get cheaper as new technology replaces the old.

Yes somethings as technology has come out it has been cheaper but space has not or does not seem to have taken that road. It has been more expense at least on the Nasa side of that coin.

deagleninja · 2004-09-27 11:41:36

Ah yes, but Spacenut, the technology hasn't fundamentally changed and that is why it hasn't become any cheaper. Today we are looking at lighter than air space access and space elevators. Who know what tomorrow will bring?

smurf975 · 2004-09-27 15:18:23

smurf975,
Don't be arrogant, yes the US has the technological weaponry, be the volume is on china's side. They have the largest standing army number 20x the US Army without doing a general call up that would be 100 - 500x, Even the US military commanders know and doing underestimate what china can do.
China is awakening and the world , including the america are not ready for the country, within 20 years china will be as powerful economically as america, also with the Asian and pacific countries building a union of countries this will add more markets for china to expand and grow.
You don't understand that china will be the biggest spark in the world's economy and may tip Amercia off the top to whom the world looks to for economic guidance.

I was not trying to be arrogant.

Anyway is it possible that the USA will be the soviet union of the 2010's? I mean the USA has the highest defence budget (based on GDP) of the developed countries. Like the USSR had.

If China is reluctant to do engage the USA in a full military industrual complex like the USSR did, however still keeping their economic growth, I can forsee a nasty future for the USA.

Anyway thats the game I would play, let the USA spend their money on useless millitary equipment and us on the economy. The real possible enemy isn't not a nation anyway, they can't be stopped by stealth and moab bombs.

Euler · 2004-09-27 17:30:58

Don't be arrogant, yes the US has the technological weaponry, be the volume is on china's side. They have the largest standing army number 20x the US Army without doing a general call up that would be 100 - 500x, Even the US military commanders know and doing underestimate what china can do.

Actually, their military is only about 2x as large as the US military. Their population is a little more than 4x as large as the US, so with a general call up on both sides they should have about 4x more troops.

The Chinese have not really been spending all that much on their military, compared to the size of their economy. China will surpass the US economically long before they do so militarily.

Commodore · 2004-09-27 17:55:15

China can not defeat the US militarly. Were long passed the days were human swarms can take and hold territory.

comstar03 · 2004-09-27 19:49:34

Commodore,

That's correct, but america can still be crippled, long enough to meet other objectives, if necessary to do so. That has happened to all, the Superpowers in the world history, it can happen to the USA as well.

Don't misunderstand me, it just depends on the reason behind the response. I don't see any major power on earth unable to be defeated, it depends on resources and time and sacrifice.

But, we are talking about China and what they want to do, I see them expand their economy and also their space agancy to meet cultural objectives to slowly become leader of the world without using military power. I don't see that as a large issue if they respect other cultures as well, when they don't then its an issue.

Commodore · 2004-09-27 21:00:49

I would be very surprised if the Chinese communist leaders at some point forced our hand. Most likely over Tiawan, which could boil over in Korea, or even Japan. The bubble Chinas riding now can't last forever, and a nice patirotic war to finish off the last of the capitalist rebels might take the publics mind off of it.

Either way, don't believe the stuff about rouge states as the reason for the ABM system. Its for China. And while the space interseptors might be shaky, but the tactical missile defense is much stronger. All these are intended to take the big stick out of Chinas hand.

comstar03 · 2004-09-29 21:26:45

Commodore,

You have the wrong idea of china it has changed from communism to socialism or fascism and that changes the dynamics of the political constructs behind the ideas/ values they hold in their hearts for the country.

The China 60 years ago isn't the china of today and won't be the china of tommorrow.

smurf975 · 2004-10-01 09:08:46

I think China has always been China like the soviet union has always been that and Cuba, Vietnam and North Korea been there selfs.

However, I think what you see now in China is not that different from what Lenin had planned if Stalin hadn't taken power.

SpaceNut · 2004-10-04 08:59:04

The china of imature space seems to be changing everyday, Nasa needs to get closer if it should want to make better use of partners in space exploration.

Not so innocents abroad: China returns to the International Astronautical Congress
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/237/1

SpaceNut · 2004-10-06 09:24:24

Some interesting facts about china's space agencyin the article about work force size and of age.

China Makes Strides In Space Technology
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/china-04zzo.html

Euler · 2004-10-09 11:40:20

The numbers in the CIA Factbook seem to have been updated recently. The most noticable change is China's industrial production growth rate is now listed as 30.4%! That is the highest of any country in the world.

Euler · 2004-12-04 20:55:36

China recently http://www.guardian.co.uk/uslatest/stor … l]launched the first submarine in it's new "type 94" class nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. This new class represents a very significant improvement in Chinese capabilities, and it will be much quieter that China's previous submarines. It will carry an estimated 20 of China's new JL-2 missiles with a range of at least 4,600 miles, meaning that it's range will cover most of the US even if it stays in Chinese territorial waters. Western experts knew that China was working on type 94 submarines, but most did not expect the first one to be launched for several more years.

MarsDog · 2004-12-04 23:35:47

http://www.fedpubs.com/subject/internat … tense.htm] Ten years from now, an American-led alliance that includes India and occupies much of the Middle East could be facing a European alliance led by France, Germany and Russia AND a hostile, heavily armed China

It will be an interesting next 10 years.

SpaceNut · 2004-12-09 09:56:14

Chinese Threat to American Leadership in Space

According to the Pentagon, China publicly opposes militarization of Space and tries to prevent or slow down the development by the U.S. of anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) and missile defense by diplomatic means. In private, however, it is considering that the development of such weaponry may in fact be inevitable if they wish to maintain any pretence to multipolarity in the future, even going to the length of searching abroad for technical knowledge.

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Re: China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US?

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