Humanoid Robots Could Build Martian Settlements

kbd512 · 2022-06-30 19:29:18

Calliban,

1. Are you sure about this? I think sCO2 can still operate efficiently at lower temperatures, it just won't be as-efficient as it could be at much higher temperatures. It will certainly be denser than steam so long as it remains a supercritical fluid, so the turbo machinery can be much smaller. Was that MIT study related to efficient use of sCO2 in solar thermal power, and were they looking at overall cost-efficiency parity with, say, photovoltaics?

I just like the simplicity of the design and the ability to refuel it without shutting it down. Perhaps sCO2 is not the best working fluid at the temperatures invovled.

2. A GW-class reactor is so large that maintaining criticality should not be an issue unless natural Uranium was used as the fuel. Is that what you want to use?

If so, I'll readily concede that removing some of the D2 from the water may be desirable, but heavy water is more abundant on Mars, or so we're led to believe, and I thought we'd want to find a suitable use for that.

3. I like the idea of using thin film plastic above-ground greenhouses as RobertDyck suggested, because it's so much easier to do and the power requirements are so high, but I also want to know how devastating a solar flare will be to a yearly harvest. How much food storage would you need to prevent an event like that from ending the colony and is that even practical? Other than that, another tip-of-the-hat to the AHR for providing gobs of low-grade heat.

4. Yes, I seem to recall that I wanted to use diffusion-bonded printed circuit heat exchangers that can transfer heat without significant pressure drops.

5. A Mars-built nuclear-powered Wärtsilä-Sulzer "Cathedral" steam piston engine would be awesome, but likely impractical. I agree that for purposes of providing initial electrical power, it's probably easiest to import everything from Earth. However, that will only be practical for the first reactor. Everything else needs to come from Mars. Single crystal gas turbine blades are cast in furnaces at very high temperatures, so perhaps these can be made more easily than gigantic piston engines using the metals collected from the surface of Mars.

The Cathedral engines weigh 2,300t and produce 100MW output. A 100MW sCO2 gas turbine would easily fit on my desk.

Calliban · 2022-07-01 01:05:16

Kbd512, here is a link to an MIT study of tge s-CO2 power genedation cycle.
http://oastats.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/17746

It will still work at temperatures <500°C, but will be less efficient than a superheated steam cycle. Temperatures in the 250°C range are uncharted territory. Other working fluids are possible. Sulphur dioxide is a possibility and sulphur is abundant on Mars. But steam systems for use at this temperature range are well developed technology. I don't know how practical it will be to make these systems from native materials on Mars. But it is clearly one of the first native industries that will need to be established.

I doubt that there will be any big incentive for using natural uranium for a long time to come. A 1GWe light water reactor consumes about 30 tonnes of 5% enriched LEU per year. This will be a small proportion of annual mass budget for a colony with tens of thousands of people. Over time, we could reduce uranium consumption by blending thorium nitrate into the fuel solution.

From the reference below, I think large scale effects on plants from solar flares are unlikely on Mars.
http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2015/ph241/miller1/

Mars surface doses are 10 - 30rad per year. Flare doses are a fraction of this. Some effects become evident at doses 5 - 400 rads per year. Large scale population effects are observed at doses >400 rads. Some plants may be more sensitive than others.

Last edited by Calliban (2022-07-01 01:51:38)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-07-01 11:40:50

Today's 'Artificial Intelligence' were mostly making the news as chatbots they seemed to be doing some form of parroting or mimicry then more recently an engineer was convinced one of them became 'Alive'. Artificial general intelligence (AGI) won't just be a parrot that mimics the sound of a dog or animal or typing of a human, it is the ability of an intelligent agent to understand or learn any intellectual task that a human being can, it will perhaps be called Full A.I or or general intelligent action. Full AGI in a replicate cyborg plastic techno clone of a money or dog will be almost impossible to tell the difference from the real, AI in machines that could do everything in the real world a dog or cat can or can successfully perform any intellectual task that a human being can, 37 countries are now invested in AGI. https://gcrinstitute.org/papers/055_agi-2020.pdf
Who will be the first to have a 'Roy Batty' and will they give him a better sense of morality than your Movie guy or Philip K. Dick science fiction novel Do Androids Dream Of Electric Sheep?

kbd512 wrote:

I see no reason to try to make everything on Mars, so high-technology items like nuclear fuels, sCO2 gas turbines, control electronics, valves, etc can be imported. However, the reactor pressure vessel, piping, wiring, and everything else must come from Mars.

I was also thinking while AI might help set up some kind of economic system that operates free on Mars maybe AI back home could help solve some of Earth's energy crisis numbers better than our political elite can?

tahanson43206 · 2022-07-01 14:59:52

For Scott Beach ... Please forgive my having lost track of where we are with your topic...

As you may have noticed, unless you tend it carefully, in the fertile soil of the NewMars forum, it will sprout weeds. Those "weeds" are highly likely to be valuable contributions, but they (often) have nothing to so with your topic, or with where you want to go with it.

Please write a short description of how things seem to be going from your perspective.

Thanks (again) for providing a glimpse of your background, because it gives (all of us) a sense of what you might be able to achieve.

It is not uncommon for topic managers to acknowledge the contributions of members. That requires investment of time and thought by the topic manager.

Allowing the topic to grow like crazy is also a common practice. That is the easiest thing to do. It requires almost no thought and certainly little effort.

(th)

SpaceNut · 2022-07-01 16:13:45

Some think AI chat is real but it's a learned response to what its hearing. If its AI, then it starts its own conversation and starts to question. When it does that then it's not a robot that carries out as its instructed to do.

tahanson43206 · 2022-07-01 17:11:45

For SpaceNut .... from my perspective, your post #30 is important for two reasons...

Your opening sentence is important because it shows (me at least) that you are making progress in understanding the difference between machine learning and programming we (or many of us) learned in school. The declarative languages were the stepping stones that allowed our software engineers to put in place the mechanisms that ** now ** learn on their own, by ingesting and integrating thousands or in some cases millions of real life data snippets.

However, your second sentence is so insightful, I (at least) am stunned ....

The issue of how a machine learning experiment might gain control of it's own evolution has been the subject of speculation by science fiction writers, and a few academics, for a number of years.

I don't think the Google experiment has reached the point implied by your second sentence, because I don't think it has a "life" independent of the constant flow of requests coming in from thousands and perhaps millions of humans. That said, from my limited understanding of how services work, it seems ** possible ** to me that a sufficiently large set of independent processes (servers) might collectively achieve independence from the flow of input requests.

This topic is (supposedly) about "humanoid robots" instead of "sentient" ones.

If you (SpaceNut) want a topic about sentient AI systems, it seems to me this is a good time to create one.

The manager of this topic is Scott Beach.

Unless he changed his mind, he is asking that contributors to ** this ** topic add posts that further the proposition that humanoid robots ** could ** build all the infrastructure needed by humans ** before ** any humans land.

I think this is a reasonable proposition, so I support Scott's efforts, on the assumption he remains committed to the stated objective.

(th)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-07-31 07:39:33

Much better news today than previous headlines which read something HAL Chess player Robot Accidentally Breaks Child's Finger.

But do your Robots need to look and think human?

NASA's cube-shaped Astrobee robots can now work independently alongside astronauts, paving the way for autonomous robotic maintenance crews.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/nasas-cut … milestone/

NASA's trio of robots known as Astrobee have completed the first phase of a project to test whether an autonomous system can provide spacecraft monitoring, maintenance and incident response. The latest milestone the project achieved was having two Astrobees work independently, alongside astronauts, in separate areas of ISS.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-08-11 10:42:42

Perhaps walks and moves and interacts better than Honda's Asimo but that is a humanoid robot created by Honda in 2000

Xiaomi CyberOne Robot Revealed To Give Tesla Bot A Humanoid Rival

https://www.slashgear.com/961166/xiaomi … oid-rival/

was both nervous and thrilled to interact with him on stage. What did you think of his performance tonight?
https://twitter.com/leijun/status/1557720705747210242

previous discussion
https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=5203
Shouldn't there be more focus on surface mobility?
https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=6862
Considering 3D printing and a Martian political/economic landscape
https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=8311
Speculation -
Mars Travelogue 2044
https://newmars.com/forums/viewtopic.php?id=6241
Robots becoming useful...

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2022-08-11 10:47:59)

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-08-25 15:27:37

Helping the sick, elderly and injured, working on the farm, maybe even giving legal advice and winning lawsuits or a Robot being a Deputy Mayor?? and what else will humanoid robots be used for in the future?

These A.I robots making better videos, becoming better teachers??

A robot acting like a fly on the wall in a Mars farm or human colony?

'World's most advanced' humanoid robot can now wink, purse its lips and scrunch its nose
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech … irror.html

Elon Musk unveils Tesla robot, says it will perform ‘boring’ chores by year’s end
https://nypost.com/2022/08/17/elon-musk … years-end/

Chameleon-like robots can change color and blend into their surroundings
https://interestingengineering.com/inno … ange-color

Using AI to Summarize Lengthy ‘How To’ Videos
https://www.unite.ai/using-ai-to-summar … to-videos/

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-08-27 09:26:10

Musk Announces Tesla Bot Launch On AI Day 2022

https://technology.inquirer.net/117492/ … -tesla-bot

Last edited by Mars_B4_Moon (2022-08-27 09:31:21)

SpaceNut · 2022-08-27 11:13:46

The real fear is that the Ai will jump to a non-AI computer and start life by spreading like a virus to all systems.

Mars_B4_Moon · 2022-09-25 08:38:19

Vapor like airy dream and 'wares', a software or hardware that has been advertised but is not yet available

Elon Musk faces skeptics as Tesla gets ready to unveil 'vaporware' robots
https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- … 022-09-20/

Void · 2022-10-01 10:46:45

Optimus Tesla Bot: https://www.bing.com/search?q=Tesla+Bot … 4864b4a8cd

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Te … M%3DHDRSC3

I think it is very hopeful. Unless we have a civilization, decay or fall, it seems to me that this is a thing that will accumulate ability over time.

Last edited by Void (2022-10-01 11:07:54)

tahanson43206 · 2022-10-01 11:07:33

For Void re #38

Thank you for this impressive set of links in support of Scott's ambitious topic.

A price of $20,000 sounds affordable for a personal assistant for a well off person ascending into older years.

2027 sounds a bit far off, but this may be one of the few times Mr. Musk has tempered his expectations.

Five years, to move from waving and swaying to working at Amazon?

That sounds about right, to me at least.

(th)

Void · 2022-10-01 11:08:59

well, it fits fairly well with the likely timeline for SpaceX to access the Moon and perhaps even Mars.

There will be some thresholds. I anticipate that it will become useful long before becoming a "CAT Girl" assistant at home

I am sure that it will at first be relatively confined to some specialized activities in a Tesla factory.

In such an environment, I think that the tether from above might even still be just fine to have. Maybe even a trolly wheels. That way even though it might be able to run on batteries, it could be charging almost 24/7, unless it begins to become mobile between different trolly tracks.

While it would practice being bipedal, it could still have such a safety harness, as even humans slip and fall at times, and humans in a factory setting would often utilize safety measures.

Another Musk project, "The Boring Company", was ridiculed for its first efforts, but I feel that it does seem to be doing pretty much what Elon Musk wanted. Accumulating increasing skills over time and seeming to actually have a marketable product.

I am excited about both of these for the Martian Environment and for the Earth Economies as well.

Going a bit aside, I see the potential for this as an Avatar. A second body experience. Yes, it was in that Movie in a sort of method, using a combination of flesh and machines. It was also made left political. Picking on natives, harming nature. Bad men of course. But the concept is one I was thinking of some time ago, but I do believe I got it from a Sci Fi book I read some time ago.

In that story when it was considered that Jupiter could have a solid surface, a person controlled a manufactured body from orbit, on the surface of Jupiter. I think he did eventually also end up with his consciousness in that avatar body.

Many people feel that Mars will be cold and miserable and toxic, and confining. I think that does not have to be so.

You could have a body in a 80-100 millibar greenhouse complex, Or clean surface workplace in ambient pressure in a shed. You could have a Centaur body out on the surface which would have to be able to deal with the harsh environment.

These could work autonomously, or at times you could become involved in a "Viewer Mode". Or you might take control at times.

Or you might have a mermaid cat girl in frigid a frigid water reservoir, or warm water. Choices are options.

Centaur:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centaur
https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=Ce … HoverTitle

Catgirl Centaur? https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=Fa … HoverTitle

Strict Puritanical Dress Codes required!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mermaid

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catgirl

Cat Girl Mermaid? Well, how about that! https://www.bing.com/images/search?q=ca … HoverTitle

Done and fun!

Last edited by Void (2022-10-01 11:34:42)

Void · 2022-10-01 11:55:56

This is a nice video I am watching on my phone, utube, but as often is the search engines on my computer will not show it at this time.

" 09-30-2022, TESLABOT REVEALED Scott Walter on the MECHANICS of Tesla's Optinus!, Dr. Know-it-all Knows it all, Utube"

Later maybe.........

Done

Void · 2022-10-01 13:16:00

It seems that these things may have application on the Moon and in orbits near Earth. The time latency may not be that much of a problem.

And I would judge that their utility will really shine in that sort of an environment. Not as much consumption of Oxygen, Water, and Food, less plumbing and recycling needed.

This might cause one-way Starships without atmospheric entry capabilities to make more sense.

A modification of such robots would not need gravity, or most consumables, or as much radiation protection, and likely would be more robust per thermal conditions.

So, along with cargo, the shells may be of use in orbit and in places such as lava-tube Skylights.

And possibly the metals may serve as propulsive mass for engines that shoot out metal plasmas. Those are supposed to do rather well.

So, eventually it will be desired to have Starships that can land, but much might be done before that, perhaps. Maybe?

These shells in orbit might produce alternate gravity materials, and Dream Chaser and others might be able to bring that down early, perhaps before Starship is perfected. Perhaps Terran-R will be easier to outfit for atmospheric entry earlier.

But of course, at the very least it would be desirable to be able to bring things like propellants, water, CO2 to LEO, and be able then to land those empty ships on Earth.

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-10-01 13:25:45)

SpaceNut · 2022-10-01 17:32:41

It appears that the Tesla revealed on Friday a prototype of a humanoid robot that it says could be a future product for the automaker. The robot, dubbed Optimus by Tesla, walked stiffly on stage at Tesla’s AI Day, slowly waved at the crowed and gestured with its hands for roughly one minute.

https://news.yahoo.com/teslas-robot-rea … 37333.html

now to teach him trades and we can do it....

tahanson43206 · 2022-10-01 18:01:11

For SpaceNut re Tesla robot prototype ...

As Void noted with all his links earlier, it will likely be 2027 before the new robot is ready for real Universe testing on customer sites.

I am NOT interested in the assembly line (such as cutting poultry) applications, because I suspect those applications will take care of themselves. i am ** much ** more interested in the personal assistant aspect of the machines.

Families who produce children are able to enlist them (some of the time) to help with house or yard chores, but a personal robot would be a much more reliable resource.

I just re-read a prediction by the European Union several years ago ... they were trying to forecast machine replacement of human labor, but I'm pretty sure they would have had NO idea that Elon Musk would come along with this proposal.

The article about the EU study predicted that new jobs/positions would open up at the ratio of 3 for every machine replaced job.

The reason that makes sense to me is the amount of programming and hand holding these machines are going to need.

Science Fiction writers have been trying to imagine what the transition would be like, and some of their visions are quite entertaining. A few are dystopian, of course.

(th)

Void · 2022-10-01 20:10:03

Possibly the most important aspect of this will be that it may cure the labor shortage. This might dismay some common people, for fear of job loss, but in reality, pay checks are only backed by productivity. Should there be a shortage of labor, then the current inflation must continue, and so, possibly a self-defeating circle.

The self-appointed experts I have watched, (And I trust them), including Elon Musk, have said that most people, will not understand the significance of it.

The hardware that they already have, has emerged in 6-8 months. The "Smarts" of the machines derive from Tesla self-driving car efforts. It seems likely that others will not have it.

I think that we are moving towards: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_machine

The software is said to be somewhat self-learning. I was impressed with the fingers in the hands.

Not a current concern, but still a possible end game on this might be, actual Starships, that actually go to other star systems. AI could have almost infinite patience, and if self-repairing, expanding, then the ability to cross between stars, without having to resort to improbable speeds.

Suppose a computer with redundancy and self-repairs were created some place in the solar system. This could talk to the starships, over hundreds of years. Humans or whatever exists in their place, could communicate with the computer on a periodic basis. The starships would likely be mostly inert during the voyage. But approaching arrival, to wake up. Then artificial wombs, but before that construction of Para Terra formation.

The whole point of this is that even though it is not like Star Trek, this is an actual method that may be on the threshold of becoming plausible.

But understand, prior to that it may well be that humans and machines will become significantly in occupation of our solar system.

And prior and into that, likely a real potential for very great prosperity.

This will dismay those who are of words and not the manipulation of objects because their egos cannot stand for industrial people to not be below them. Which includes many so called "Greens".

Done.

Last edited by Void (2022-10-01 20:27:06)

tahanson43206 · 2022-10-01 20:51:37

For Void re vision of robot space travelers ....

Thanks for providing your version of this interesting idea!

As a side note (but definitely related) .... recently I read a discussion of how human genetic material might be protected on a very long voyage such as the ones your robot crew might survive ....

The difference was that this particular author was thinking about a generation ship with successive teams of human operators. Your vision would appear to do away with that requirement entirely.

However, there ** is ** an uncertain component to your vision ....

Would the robot crew have any incentive to awaken the human genetic material, after hundreds or thousands of years of slow progress across the galaxy?

The crew will be subjected to powerful and incessant radiation throughout the voyage.

Artificial brains will be constantly having to perform data repairs.

Still, despite the challenges, I agree that your vision seems more plausible than some of the others I've seen.

One scenario that keeps coming up is the low but non-zero probability that a faster means of transport will be discovered/invented while show ships are on their way. As far as stored genetic material is concerned, it wouldn't make any difference.

Interesting extension of the topic: building Martian Settlements.

(th)

kbd512 · 2022-10-02 00:45:31

tahanson43206,

With current technology, Void is probably right. However, even assuming the mission is successful and the humans are transplanted and created on their new planet, what if they have no memory of Earth and later attack another unsuspecting group of humans who come along at some later point in time, maybe centuries later?

I think we need to solve that warp drive problem. Various alien races have clearly solved it, so that must mean it's a solvable problem. We've only been seriously working on warp drive for the past few years. Ditto for fusion power. Government science experiments encumbered by institutional bureaucratic inertia notwithstanding, I think the free market economy can and will solve fusion because the incentive is so powerful to do so. If we solve fusion power, then we also have the power source for said starship.

Calliban · 2022-10-02 06:34:19

Why do the robots need to be humanoid? We need remote control and a certain amount of automation for things like diggers and factories. We don't need fully humanoid AI 'terminators' walking around and doing everything. People are expensive, especially when they need life support. The goal is minimise the amount of EVA time you need to build things.

tahanson43206 · 2022-10-02 06:53:15

For Calliban re #48

Thanks for a thought provoking question and for your recent posts on global forecasts!

The answer to the question you posed in #48 seems obvious (to me at least) so i presume you asked it to provoke others.

Evolution on Earth has given success to the four limbed upright monkey pattern we humans exhibit.

Your vision of Terminator robots may be prescient, but Elon Musk is deliberately making his robots smaller than the average human and not at all intimidating.

However, the ** real ** reason that these devices will succeed in the marketplace is the economic value of trust. We humans have entrusted responsibility to our human assistants to carry out just about every activity that contributes to the global economy, and vast amounts of activity that are not economic but which are greatly valued, such as a parent providing tasty meals for the family.

I realize you are much too young to be able to imagine this time that is coming in your life, but chances are strong the robust, powerful body you currently enjoy will begin to fail. At some point, the ladder you could (and do) effortlessly toss on your shoulder will seem too heavy.

For eons, human parents have off-shifted needed tasks to off-spring, but the increasing age of individuals means that there will be more individuals without offspring they can ask for physical assistance.

I am hoping you personally never experience deterioration of your physical body, but I am observing the effects of time on mine, and I would welcome the arrival of a Tesla robot able to climb to the roof to replace a tile, or sweep the leaves from the street, or perform a myriad of other tasks I've performed in past years.

Your post #48 pretty much answers itself ... specialized machines will certainly have a place in the Solar System economy, but fully operational humanoid machines will far and away sweep the field.

(th)

Calliban · 2022-10-02 08:26:00

TH, I am 43, so I do appreciate where you are coming from. I am not as nimble as I was in my 20s. I get tired more easily, although my muscles are stronger than they were when I was 20. But I don't relish walking 10 miles into town and back like I used to. When I was 20, I could do that without even feeling tired. Now, it tires me out. I miss being 20. I miss the waistline I had when I was 20.

I just think that we are trying to run before we can walk when it comes to automation. We seem to be setting our sights on goals that will require very sophisticated AI, rather than the low hanging fruit of remote controlled vehicles, which we still havn't mastered.

Last edited by Calliban (2022-10-02 08:27:49)

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