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A good launch cost http://www.futron.com/pdf/FutronLaunchCostWP.pdf]link.
1977 was the year I purchased a Peter Frampton 8-track.
Was that a good year? You all be the judge.
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As for Cobra's point. Many in my family suffer auto-immune diseases. Arthritis, colitis and the like. I do not, thus far. Fingers crossed. Auto-immune diseases are where the bodies own defenses over-react to theats and the body's own immune system attacks itself.
IMHO, the Patriot Act can be seen as an auto-immune disease, metaphorically speaking. Our over-reaction to 9/11 causes more harm than 9/11 did.
Imagine a team of Islamic hackers sitting in cyber-cafes in the Middle East. Feign some chatter about a new attack, persuade Bush/Ridge/Ashcrfot to raise the terror alert level.
Voila' - - that sound is billions of dollars being drained from the US economy through delays and inconvenience.
bin Laden is engaged in psy-ops. He seeks to manipulate how we react. Since we have already regime changed Iraq and Afghanistan, isn't it NOW a law enforcement matter?
Organized crime task forces (mafia hunters) dont wait for crime to happen, they act pro-actively.
So what's going to happen if things go south in Afghanistan and the population supports a return of the Taliban (where is Omar BTW?) because the local warlords are nothing but thugs (the reason the population supported the Taliban last time). And, if things go south in Pakistan and Mussraff goes a bridge too far to appease US interests and the radical islamists overthrow him? And, if Iran's government is able to maintain control over the population... look at a map, an entire region is turned against us, one with nuclear weapons, one close to producing them, and who knows what will happen with Saudia Arabia... so that means a good portion of the world oil reserves are controlled over there...
Yeah, we're going to look back and hope for days prior to 9/11... If things keep going the way they are, I don't see us avoiding this.
Yup. http://slate.msn.com/id/2105127]Not so cheerful reading from Slate.
General Shineski was spot on. 300,000 troops are needed to stabilize Iraq.
Will Rummy and Bush apologize?
Which is why Sistani isn't out condemning Sadr... he is leaving his options open for the future.
Sure.
Tell the Americans (in English) "Go ahead, whack Sadr" and then wrap himself in Sadr's bloody clothes and preach (in Arabic? or what?) about the evil Americans.
Like I said. Shrewd.
Bush vs Putin in poker? Dude, Putin was once KGB! Bush traded away Sammy Sosa!
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Add: Sadr ain't no dummy either. Sadr the merciful?
Gunmen also kidnapped a British journalist in the southern city of Basra, threatening to execute him within 24 hours if U.S. forces did not pull out of Najaf, but Sunday Telegraph reporter James Brandon was later released after Sadr intervened.
and,
Brandon was handed over within hours to Sadr's Basra office.
"I'm grateful to the Mehdi Army and I'm in good health now," Brandon, who had a black eye, told reporters shortly after his release. He said he was treated roughly at first.
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtm … ber=0]Link - We blinked in Fallajuh and now it looks like we will blink in Najaf. A few days ago it was "No negotiations with Sadr" and guess what? They are negotiating.
If you won't follow thorugh, don't make the threat.
But thinking of the possibilities, it does look like we have truly lost in Iraq. Sure, we will kill the rag tag remananets that are fighting with their last despearte breath- but come the day when we draw down, declare success, we will see.
Shiite's own Iraq. We fear their uprising. Sistani is what keeps a majority in check. He is a patient man- at least he seems so.
Sistani survived Saddam, right?
He is patient, and shrewd. After all US Marines are fighting the biggest threat to his leadership, a fellow named Sadr.
Edit: Sadr's blood will be on our hands and Sistani is relieved of a major rival. Its win-win for him.
The liberation of Iraq is a worthy and noble goal. The US rushed into Iraq with an inadequate understanding of how to win the peace. Good goal, foolish execution.
Had we given Sistani a leading role last summer (2003) his people would be fighting Sadr now, not our people.
Like Bill Maher said, many Islamic males would prefer Saddam to letting their women walk around in mini-skirts and unless the average Iraqi believes their leaders are not puppets of the US, IMHO those leaders will not be accepted.
Long story short, we foolishly reached many bridges too far and we have budgeted far too little US tax money to conclude a successful reconstruction. But we broke Iraq and now we US-ians have to stay the course.
The problem with the higher cost of the SDV is that it is supported by Nasa in that it is entangled into there operations and Shuttle infrastructure.
Where as an Atlas or a Delta have no such over head in there cost per unit price.
NASA operations are run by the United Space Alliance, correct? Isn't that essentially Boeing and Lock-mart?
I agree with GCNRevenger that a Delta V superheavy or Atlas VI might be cheaper than SDV, but why should we assume EELV+ will escape the crippling overhead paid by STS?
Its the same people who will be running either program.
If Delta IV was an economical system, Boeing would not have bailed out of the commercial launch market.
Will you ever get the military to arrest, not bomb, Al Queada members and bring them to trial? Will you ever bring Osama bin Laden to justice?
Here's the thing. If we treat this as a law enforcement issue we have to sit around, wait for something to happen, then go out and amass a case that will get a conviction, if we can apprehend the "suspects" through legal means. What we are trying to do now is prevent further attacks from happening by going after the source.
To treat terrorism primarily as a criminal issue is to put our people at greater risk.Oh, we've had similar discussions. I'm amazed that there are a lot of American's who don't understand. A lot do, but many don't. Everyone in the world supported military action against Al Quaeda, and if the Afganistan government refused to hand them over then you were justified to send in ground troups to go get Al Quaeda. However, not Iraq; they weren't involved. Swift, firm, decisive action was required against Al Quaeda. But overthrowing the government of Iraq and installing a government style that YOU approve of, with hand-picked Iraqi members to head that government, means you are taking control of internal Iraqi affairs away from Iraqi people.
Robert, Iraq is water over the dam. Not MY choice for US policy but its history now so we need to deal with it as a fait accompli.
Iraq has been occupied. We either give the Iraqis a stable country or terrorism grows worse.
But my question for the neo-cons is - - who do we regime change next, or is it finally a law enforcement matter?
To treat terrorism primarily as a criminal issue is to put our people at greater risk.
The Taliban, (who everyone agrees was a state sponsor of al Qaeda and global terrorism) has been eliminated with support from most every nation on Earth. Even France. :;):
Iraq (maybe and maybe not a sponsor of al Qaeda and global terrorism - lets not argue that here) has been regime changed.
What other governments need to be changed before the war on al Qaeda become essentially law enforcement or a criminal matter?
Isn't heroin smuggling now one of al Qaeda's biggest money makers? Sounds like crime to me.
There were 11 completed external tanks at Michoud when Columbia disintegrated over Texas and Louisiana. Those tanks, which cost $40 million apiece, must be retrofitted.
The Michoud plant's work force stands at about 2,000. Under existing contracts, Lockheed Martin will continue to produce external tanks through 2008.
Official: Redesigned shuttle tanks will be safest ever
http://www.2theadvocate.com/stories/081 … s001.shtmlSo lets see if I have the thought on the number of tanks still yet to be made. Roughly 30 flights give or take to complete the ISS minus the 10 equals, 20 tanks at 40 million a piece to make. Or 800 million spead over the next 3 or 4 years in budgetary demands.
The workforce and tooling to build those giant external tanks is one of the arenas where we are ahead of the Russians and Ukrainians. After a shaky start and the Challenger disaster, Thiokol SRBs are another.
Lift with the capacity of Delta IVH? The Russians blow our socks off in terms of value and price per pound to LEO with Zenit & Proton.
So why abandon an arena where we are ahead (the ability to build reliable BIG rockets) to compete in an arena where we are behind (flying smaller rockets)? The orbiter must go, but why everything else?
High STS costs are from bad management and fixed overhead.
Not because the Michoud ETs and the Thiokol SRBS are bad technology. Why should we believe the management will be any better if we start flying Deltas and Atlases exclusively?
Game theory wonks have proven that cooperation often beats competition, but not always.
How can cooperation -- if you define it as something other than competition -- beat competition, unless its in competition with, er, competition, in which case its not cooperation . . . :;):
(Not even sure what "Obama" is yet, just started reading this thread.)
Sorry, Mundaka.
I now see your post is more subtle that I first thought. Nah, I NEVER jump to hasty conclusions. Never. :;):
I think of it like this, in non-zero sum games altruistic cooperation (as commonly understood) is usually the better strategy. In zero sum games, competition or strategic cooperation (alliances) is usually the better strategy.
In the real world, my view of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TANSTAAFL]TANSTAAFL depends on whether life is or is not a zero sum game.
Hard-core (classical liberal) advocates of the TANSTAAFL principle seem to assume that markets are efficient unless due to interference by the government or other "outside" forces.
Is it reasonable to assume that markets are inherently efficient absent government interference? I say NO! Market inefficiencies arise from many sources, including government.
I also say we have barely scrached the surface of our ability to remove inefficiencies from the market. What are the hypothetical limits of worker productivity given increasingly advanced technology?
Removing inefficiencies is NOT a zero-sum game.
Asking which is "better" -- competition or cooperation seems to me rather like asking an electrician whether the ( + ) or ( - ) wires are "more important" than the other.
Spoilsport! You take all the fun out of arguing <chuckle>.
Okay, you want to argue on these boards? Simple-minded libertarians annoy me with their shallow reasoning.
I just read Snow Crash myself, without having seen BWhite's review/post up above. I wholly reccomend reading this. The plot is bizzare and stupid, but somehow this doesn't matter, as the even more bizzare and fancifully weird setting and characters draw the reader's attention far more than the strange plot.
C'mon now. Any novel where one of the characters has a nuclear bomb in his motorcycle sidecar with the words POOR IMPULSE CONTROL tattooed on his forehead is begging to be read. Cobra Commander would approve.
The book gets weaker as it goes on, I think because the ultrastrange setting and characters has grown somewhat less surreal after reading long enough. But still - it's very good.
I agree.
When I first read Snow Crash, I was entranced by his use of language and by his caricatures of American culture. But I agree the plot is very weak, maybe a D- or a D.
But its a fun read, just for the skateboarding and harpooning. And the guy with the H-bomb trigger wired into his brain (hardly a spoiler because this tid-bit doesn't really play into the plot).
If a giant space coffin went wandering by without any other clue from the originating species, I wouldn't touch it with a ten-AU pole. WHo knows what weird motive they have for doing that?
That sort of thing would drive home the idea that aliens are alien and will do things for reasons that make no sense. The best thing to do is pretend not to notice it, because the course of any particular action will be wholly unknowable when dealing with something as weird as the giant space masoleum.
Actually, I tend to agree.
Game theory wonks have proven that cooperation often beats competition, but not always.
How can cooperation -- if you define it as something other than competition -- beat competition, unless its in competition with, er, competition, in which case its not cooperation . . . :;):
(Not even sure what "Obama" is yet, just started reading this thread.)
<chuckle> I see what you mean. In the classic and intensively studied "Prisoner's Dilemma" game a "tit-for-tat" strategy gives the highest payoff. You cooperate if your opponent cooperated on the last trial, and "compete" if your opponent "competed".
Its an "identity" question or a level of observation question - - who is the player we measure by?
Sports example - Kobe Bryant leads the league in scoring yet the LA Lakers fail to win a ring.
John Wooden's classic knock on Michael Jordan was that he was the most talented/gifted player but he wasn't a team player and therefore would never win an NBA title. Now, MJ is probably one of the most competitive human beings on the planet. It seems that MJ heard about Wooden's criticism and then vowed to become the best damn "team player" he could and the Chicago Bulls won six rings.
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In one game of Prisoner's Dilemma, always "Defect" - - when playing 100 games or 100,000 games in series, learning how to always play "Cooperate" increases everyone's score. What I mean is get in sync with your opponent/partner communciate well and you can both maximize your score.
In high school, I had a really hot social studies teacher (I think she was just a year or two out of college) who tried to teach us this lesson. She divided the class into groups of 4, with two teams of 2 and had us play a variant of Prisoner's Dilemma.
Each table competed with each other until the end of class, when she announced that the goal of the game was to be sitting at a table with the highest score. In other words, we had actually been divided into teams of 4 and were playing "against" the other tables.
She was annoyed with me because I played "Defect" early on and then browbeat the other players into always playing "Cooperate" thereafter. We had one round of "Defect" vs "Cooperate" which gave me an untouchable lead then I established a benign dictatorship (nods to Cobra) and every subsequent round was "Cooperate" vs "Cooperate" and our team score was 5 times as high as any other.
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Asking which is "better" -- competition or cooperation seems to me rather like asking an electrician whether the ( + ) or ( - ) wires are "more important" than the other.
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Another way I look at it, always ask: "What game are we really playing here"?
Hillary will probably be buying that hormone and loading it into tranquilizer gun darts for use on Bill...
I read this post backwards and for a moment thought you meant me. . . (Bill. . .)
Will we continue to grow apart? Will the threat of terrorism draw us closer together (once Dubya's out the Oval Office I mean) again?
This ties into what I was talking about earlier regarding differences between nations. Terrorism could draw Europe and America closer, or wedge us further apart if too many Europeans see attacks on their soil as somehow our fault. In either case, Dubya is irrelevant. Britain isn't with us because Tony Blair likes Bush, France didn't oppose us because Chirac thinks he's a cowboy. Who sits in the Oval Office is not the issue. The Kerry campaign would like us to believe it's all about personal tiffs, but it just isn't the case.
Actually, its more about whether America leads and the world follows (the PromiseKeeper mentality) or whether America can be partners with other nations based on a belief in equal rights for all humans. I fully support spreading American values and one of those values is the conviction that others have an equal right to choose their own values. See Federalist #1:
For in politics, as in religion, it is equally absurd to aim at making proselytes by fire and sword. Heresies in either can rarely be cured by persecution.
In other words, JDAMS can never win converts.
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Its also that "empire" word and this Administration has been quite coy on that subject.
http://slate.msn.com/id/2092804/]Cheney Christmas card
http://slate.msn.com/id/2092800/]Slate column
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Which nations (other than the United States) can lawfully engage in the military pre-emption of threats? All pigs are equal, yet some are more equal than others.
It would be prudent for them to bow to local customs, except when amongst themselves. Iraq, however is a slightly different situation in that it's an occupied nation that we are trying to change.
Response:
A> Bait and switch. That is not how the war was sold.
B> Credibility. In light of A, there is a credibility issue about whether the Administration means what it is saying.
C> Insufficient means to accomplish A. More money is needed to accomplish the largest nation building projetc ever attempted. As I said 6 - 9 months ago, maybe a trillion dollars of US tax money.
D> Unilateral. In light of A how can we expect broad consensus in the international community? And, if our goal really is to re-make Iraq in our image then its only natural for France and Russia to object.
The Brits did a fine job against the IRA as has been pointed out by others.
The French also didn't do so badly with http://www.time.com/time/nation/article … l]Algerian terrorists in the early to mid 1990s, including storming an airliner that was possibly going to crash into the Eiffel Tower.
Too bad Condi Rice apparently paid no attention to that example and was totally surprised by September 11th.
On December 24, 1994, Algerian Armed Islamic Group hijacked an AirFrance commercial jet and threatened to crash it into the Eiffel Tower. AIG is an Islamic terrorist group tied to Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda. As warnings go, this was a dead giveaway.
The plot had been scheduled for New Year's Eve, but the operatives carrying it out had moved it up to Christmas Eve due to concerns about being caught. The change of plans ended up putting the flight on a refueling stop before it could hit the tower, and French commandos stormed the plane, successfully killing the hijackers.
Cowardly? How?
For some reason they sit by and allow constant terrorism on their own territory, they release known terrorists (Italy with the Achille Largo terrorists), they choose to appease the radical arabs (Libya's Khadafi, Iran, Saddam) and sell them nuclear reactors rather than stand up to them.
Hey, don't tar us all with the same brush, ok? :rant:
I have several internet pals from England who steadfastly deny that Great Britain is "European" - - therefore you and your people are excluded from the criticism.
I suppose Neville Chamberlain was British but I also remember some history about the need to start building Spitfires and Hurricanes before taking on Hitler.
. . . under-paid, under-sexed, under Eisenhower. . .
I see Europeans protesting in the streets for peace only when the USA has military aims. For some reason they sit by and allow constant terrorism on their own territory, they release known terrorists (Italy with the Achille Largo terrorists), they choose to appease the radical arabs (Libya's Khadafi, Iran, Saddam) and sell them nuclear reactors rather than stand up to them. Reminds me of how Europe cowardly backed down to Hitler just before he invaded and conquered them all. Europe's appeasement of threats is what caused WW2. And the lack of determined military action by the Clinton administration is the reason we had 9/11 and the ensuing war in Afghanistan. We've tried to stay out of the worlds affairs but it bites us in the ass every time.
Hitler is a complex case.
Was England ready for war when Chamberlain went to Munich? That is not so clear.
Poland was Stalin and Hitler ganging up.
Had Guderian not developed armored blitkreig tactics, or had the French and BEF not failed to secure the Ardennes against armored attack, Hitler would have thrown himself against the Maginot Line and failed. The failure of May 1940 was the belief that the Maginot Line would some how render France invulnerable - - rather like our belief that a missile defense shield will protect us. It will protect against ICBMs (maybe) but then the bad guys merely need to find a work around.
And a North Korean regime change might be cheaper than missile defense.
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Roughly half of America is not happy with Gulf War 2. So the French also don't like the idea. Whats the big deal.
Saddam had NOTHING to do with September 11th.
Like I said, find a way to leverage the French or stop whining.
Why did we give thousands of lives for a people who's children are so ungrateful and jealous?
Why are "they" so ungrateful? Maybe the sons and daughters of those who fought WW2 are themselves different than their parents.
Oh, I forget, can't look in the mirror except to comb one's hair.
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Chirac is corrupt and Putin is ex-KGB. Okay, deal with it.
Civilian pouting and foot stomping about ingratitude strikes me as stunningly naive and ineffectual.
Ohhh yes. "Unilateral." Oh come on... what you really mean is "without France/Germany/Russia/UN dictators club" We've got Italy, we've got Poland, we've got Britain, we've got Austrailia, we've got Japan, we've got South Korea, and we had Spain (before they ran) all physicly deploying armed troops on the ground... Unillateral my foot. France & Russia also had a vested economic interest to keeping Saddam in power, so the cheap oil would keep flowing to rehabilitate Russia and prop up socialist France.
So why does it surprise you that Chirac and Putin resist us?
Is Chirac corrupt? Well du'h!
Its like that scene in the movie Casablanca:
"Gambling? I'm shocked!"
"Your winnings, sir"
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If we can leverage France, okay just do it. If not, stop whining.