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In a report by Spacefiightinsider.com, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell stated that the company has all but given up on a 2018 Mars landing by a previously flown Man Rated Dragon capsule. The September 2016 "incident" caused delays in flying manned rated capsules until late this year.
For the EDS, should use the most powerful combination not requiring extreme cryogenic cooling; that means CH4/LOX. For the lunar orbit/deorbit & ERS: MMH + NTO. Keep things as simple as possible. I'm a big believer in the KISS principles.
I wasn't referring to the Habitat module as a throwaway, simply the ultralight lunar landers. I'm willing to bet the cost of development from Northrup-Grumman would exceed $250 Million! Using existing and future useful hardware could keep the entire program under a half Billion.
The other problem: we don't HAVE a Mars habitat module, either.
RobertDyck-
We now have sufficient heavy lift capacity available, making development of another piece of expensive THROWAWAY hardware unnecessary. My concept was utilization of existing hardware, and development of new hardware which, with suitable alteration/expansion, could be used on a Mars mission. I'm using the tinkertoy method of construction; mix and match, so to speak.
One would really need it due to the 14 day diurnal cycle, during the "dark phase." Staying on the Moon for long period of darkness is one of the reasons for NOT going there. "A neat place to visit, but I wouldn't want to live there."
I'd view it as a, possibly necessary politically, detour from the ultimate goal of colonizing Mars. It would serve as a technology demonstrator of orbital assembly, artificial gravity production, use of more sophisticated "any planet possible" landers, improved life support systems over more than just a few days/hours in a space vehicle, etc. I'd support it as just another step forward than as a step sideways. Call it a small scale Mars expedition rehearsal.
IMHO, we've equipment-wise progressed beyond the "minimalist approach' taken by the 1960s NASA design teams, and thus, should be utilizing some of the more sophisticated hardware becoming available. I'd be all for reverse engineering the landing, and subsequent Earth return of a Red Dragon vehicle from the lunar surface. It would require orbital assembly techniques unavailable to the Apollo mission designers. Working backwards, we need a lunar departure booster based on the current Dragon trunk unit, powered by MMH/NTO unit capable of getting the necessary delta-V for lunar departure and trans-Earth trajectory. The Red Dragon capsule should be slightly uprated w/r fuel on board to permit midcourse corrections and Earth touchdown requirements. Call that portion 8 metric tons. The trunk departure stage would be scaled to doing the boost into ERT, leaving on the lunar surface the landing stage with legs, descent engines, etc. The lunar landing stage should be scaled to complete insertion into lunar orbit, and a subsequent landing. Prior to that, there will be another stage constructed to accomplish the trans lunar trajectory, which COULD accompany the Dragon, retaining enough fuel for final destructive boost into a solar trajectory, but also capable of becoming the experimental tether system counterweight; thereby allowing artificial gravity experiments to be conducted for say 3 days? All these various booster stages could be chunks of appropriately engined hardware based on expansion of the Dragon cargo trunk currently used as an unpressurized cargo up to the ISS.
Maybe GW could do these back calculations; it's been too long since I did this sort of stuff as an aerospace undergrad some 55 years ago. But--this would get us away from the "flimsy landers" with limited accommodations for the crew. Yeah, we can bring back more rocks....if only for evidence that we've returned to the moon. In and of itself, the lunar return is nothing more than an exercise demonstrating that we still are capable of leading the way to the stars. It can also serve as a technology demonstration for the Red Dragon capsule and also demonstrate the tether for artificial gravity production. The moon rocks are just more dead weight on the return.
So...for maybe $300 Million, we get the "return to the Moon" out of the way? Then, with some tested technology firmly in hand--SpaceX's hand, we can finally get on the road to Mars?
Take a look at my post #56 on the SpaceX, NASA, and the New Administration thread; the utilization and/or modification of existing or already proposed hardware should be combinable into a Moon vehicle system.
Proposed architecture: Dragon 2 capsule initially modified for an Apollo 8 redux with increased food and consumables simply by lengthening the capsule. Convert the trunk segment into a booster stage with enough fuel to undertake Moon orbit insertion and orbital departure on a return trajectory. Have an in-orbit assembly of an Earth orbit to lunar trajectory throwaway booster. Could in principle, become a technology demonstrator for the tether system of artificial gravity production? This system could utilize the surplus crew capacity of 7, scaled back to 2-3-4 astronauts in order to conserve oxygen and consumables.
For the Apollo 11 redux, lengthen the trunk stage(s) to include a lunar landing motor, fuel supply for landing in a separable stage that could be left behind with landing legs, etc. The other trunk stage would contain a motor and fuel for lunar departure. The Dragon capsule would have the 8 small Raptor engines and MMH/NTO fuel for an Earth landing. This whole system is again, built at the ISS, thereby making the boys at NASA's eyes cross with ecstasy. This only tasks SpaceX with building the intermediate stages modified from the currently unpressurized cargo trunk.This whole system isn't some multi-billion dollar wet dream. Just a rationalization of existing capabilities.
To qualify one of my above statements to temper it a little: going to Mars, which is habitable, will allow some to make it their home and not as part of a "mission. That's more like pulling up stakes here on the Earth and getting in a rocket powered Conestoga Wagon and heading West. I could even consider doing that at my tender age of 78.
When earlier I spoke about lifetimes, I meant the lifetimes of the astronauts. No one would really want to spend 3 years going to a destination, then stay a while to do science, and return for another 3 years. That's just too big a chunk of the normal human lifetime to invest on a project.
Some of the information presented here regarding gas phase nuclear propulsion could cut a mission time span to a total of 5-6 years to Callisto and the 2 major asteroids, Vesta and Ceres. Beyond Jupiter is going to require a more advanced propulsion system. I don't anticipate using light sails and lasers, or electromagnetic propulsion to do so, simply due to the enthalpy requirements. Zubrin points that out in "Entering Space." The next step outward will require thermonuclear propulsion, which could also lead to interstellar travel.
Chemical propulsion as some have pointed out, can get us to Mars and the asteroids as well as back to the Moon. Beyond that--requires an entirely new paradigm.
But...they aren't are they?
The only way I see getting to the outer solar system reasonably is through use of Nuclear Thermal units, especially the gas phase ones described by Robert.
I wonder what Jeff Bezos is thinking about this, especially after his Washington Post has attacked Trump incessantly?
Robert-
It would seem to me the Moon would make a great place for a Gas Core test site! No atmosphere; no one else around to complain! I suspect that chemical propulsion will be around for a long time, just getting any space vehicles out of the atmosphere. This is just about the only reason I could support (other than military/strategic bases) for lunar development.
But--the "how do we get there" definitely precedes in thinking of "where do we go next."
Those active within this group seem to be a bunch of creative free-thinkers, so I'm posing this question as some "brainteaser/brain candy." last night I again immersed myself in Robert Zubrin's Entering Space while looking for some data regarding delta V required for exiting LEO in the ballistic trajectory to Mars.
So, it really hit me that as long as we're limited to chemical rocketry using even the BEST propellant systems, after Mars, we're kinda' stuck. The asteroid belt would be within reason, so Ceres and Vesta would become logical exploration targets, in addition to asteroid mining activities. Even then, the transit times in the void beyond Mars become horrifyingly dramatic, if just methylox or even hydrolox systems are contemplated. I find Ceres scientifically interesting, but would be similar in scope to Antarctica in it's overall appeal as a place to live and work. I haven't researched Vesta yet, but I'm guessing that it's a "nice place to visit, but I wouldn't want to live there."
The next stage outward would be Callisto, the 4th Galilean Moon of Jupiter; Ganymede is probably habitable, but fraught with a low level radiation issue due to it's position right at the outer edge of the Jovian Van Allen belts. Callisto has been described in the literature as possibly the most desolate place in the solar system, and has more meteoric impact craters than anywhere else examined to date. The major problem regarding Callisto is the travel time getting there and getting back within a lifetime, if limited to chemical propulsion.
We've been carping around on this website about the shortcomings of NASA, so we should maybe start agitating for resurrection of the NERVA program? Granted, Nuclear Thermal Propulsion is not the long-term answer to the problem, but it IS a demonstrated practical "next step" in the journey outward to the stars. It would tend to make the asteroids and the Jovian moons accessible within average lifetimes.
It would really be an Object Lesson for NASA; what can be accomplished when there is a defined objective and the political will to accomplish same...
I believe that "something quick, and within the 1st administration time frame," is what's needed. The Apollo 8 redux would simply be the technology proof of concept demonstrator, to be followed within a year by a Moon landing--Apollo 11 redux. It should also be a no-brainer about building a communications satellite constellation around the Moon, since that seems to be the business that SpaceX is engaged in. Comsats, that is!
The ULA Delta IV Heavy doesn't have the capability to launch enough into LEO, leaving the upcoming Falcon Heavy as the "only game in town," for accomplishing ANYTHING in the near term. Why has Trump met with Elon Musk 3 times since the inauguration?
I think Lockheed-Martin is "in awe" of Trump, ever since they had to negotiate with him about the F-35 multirole fighters. Ditto Boeing w/r to Air Force 1 Replacements. There are also rumors floating around about Trump raising NASA's budget in order to promote the commercialization of space. Asteroid mining, anyone?
In my opinion, all the noise being made by the Chinese about establishment of a permanent base on the Moon has Donald's National Security sensors being tickled.
Just idle speculation on my part: Trump will call for an Apollo 8 redux by 2018. Only one game in town, and that's SpaceX.
After re-reading the words of the master, he comes to a conclusion of a 25 metric ton system landing on the Red Planet. Based on a 180 day manned flight, which requires a delta V of 5.08 km/second from LEO. Zubrin makes a great case for the 4 man mission, especially in the early pioneering flights. My reasoning for a larger crew/larger ship and a second ship is based on what needs to be accomplished versus the eventual physical and mental exhaustion of the individuals involved in this enterprise. Yes, it's possible for a solo mission, a 2 man, or 4 man crew to "do" the mission, but they would be in pretty bad shape by the end of it, both physically AND mentally/emotionally..
Of course, my mission architecture includes prepositioned nuclear reactor, food, equipment, water and vehicle caches. In addition to components for erecting a habitat--a Bigelow version of a Yurt, need be. The ISPP plant should be producing both components of the methylox fuel-oxidizer couple for the prepositioned ERV.
My bottom line: If we are going to Mars, go there in sufficient force to show that we're there TO STAY. My second words of wisdom: remember that Murphy was an optimist.
My mission architecture is based on an upgrade to a 5 meter diameter Dragon 2+, or a Dragon 3--whatever. That and building components that would be mission specific. Still using the Falcon Heavy and Falcon Block 5 for ferrying loads to orbit.
Just resurrecting this thread in the light of recent speculation regarding President Trump calling for a return to the Moon in THREE years. Since SLS will not be ready by then--raising the prospect that his recent meetings with Elon Musk were related to this project. Any thoughts or comments on how this might accelerate development of the Falcon Heavy and a follow-on rocket?
There are too many variables involved regards the weight actually launched to Mars. What transit time is acceptable, how many crew, how much and what equipment, etc. Then there's always the estimates of dry weight w/o propellants to consider. I just ran a few weight estimates for an upgraded Dragon 2 spacecraft, crewed at the max with 7 crew, supplies, O2, H2O, propellants, landing stage, etc, at roughly 92,000 kg. This is the mass that would be launched into trans-Mars flight. That should allow the engineers among us to come up with (1) thrust required, (2) delta V, and finally, (3) how much fuel needed to accomplish such. In my model, I have a fuel allowance of ~ 42,000 kg of MMH and NTO. A "landed weight" is thereby ~ 50,000 kg. My fuel allowance is just a WAG. So--maybe need a little more or maybe a whole lot less? This is the fuel onboard the Mars landing vehicle, not that needed for TMI.
We still don't know what the next iteration of Falcon 9 will do--the so-called "Block 5" Falcon 9.
The numbers I quoted were of the Full Thrust Falcon 9, which is now a higher rating than the earlier figures you've quoted for delivered payload. The Block 5 is supposedly enhanced for delivery of heavier payloads to orbit while retaining adequate fuel for RTB.
Here's what I know about Nuclear Thermal Rockets and the NERVA Project.