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#201 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-17 17:07:14

Very interesting. Besides Russia (Soviet Union) and perhaps China, what other communist countries have poor environmental track records?

I'm not trying to be a smarty-pants but it could be argued that all industrial countries have poor environmental track records. For instance, there are no parts of the US untouched by polution.

But I see your point. In a communist country public outcry doesn't amount to much reform (and perhaps you get a bullet in the head).

#202 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-17 16:52:26

Yada yada yada china weak yada yada china poor yada yada china stupid.....

Look, we can through figures at each other all day, but it doesn't change the facts.

America has been spinning its wheels since the early 70's and China hasn't. The fact that anybody is talking about China's economic power is testament to how far they have come (and they are just getting started).

China is poised to be an economic juggernaut and if we don't wake up and realize this soon, then we won't be able to do anything ten years down when it is too late.

You can't make comparisions to Japan. The analogy doesn't fit. Japan is an island nation that has virtually no resources. It's economic growth was not based on raw production power, rather it was based on over-inflated market projections (much like our boom/bust of the 80's).

The former Soviet Union is not a fair analogy either. China's borders havent changed in hundreds (thousands?) of years. China is also addressing humanitarian issues and becoming a strong supporter of human rights.......why? It is good for business.

#203 Re: Human missions » Kerry's position on space - any one know were Kerry stands » 2004-08-17 16:32:33

Well as much as I favor a renewed manned space exploration effort, I can't vote for a president that is ruining his country to make a few extra dollars for his buddies.

My vote cannot be bought, sorry Mr Bush. You should have done more than vacation before 9/11 and settle your daddy's grudges after 9/11.

#204 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-08-17 16:23:59

'Oh yes, and I suppose that its just as easy to wave our hands and magicly make a robotic repair mission in only two years? Or to wave our wand and make an ISS payload go away to make room for Hubble on the schedule?'

Actually, the testing and training is already underway. The technology IS available and need only be adapted to deal with vaccum and extreme temperature changes. As for the ISS, nowhere is it written that we need to sacrafice our equipment (HST) to meet the demands of other nations not sharing the burden of lifting and assembling. I mean, for goodness-sake, we don't even have an agenda for the damn thing.

'And are you naieve to think that the media would forgive them this in hindsight?'

So the media dictates government policy? It's not as if the media even has a positive opinion of NASA or space exploration in general......so what's to lose?

'Having O'Keefe publicly stand up and ask tell that "its the stingy taxpayers fault" would be political suiside too, by the way.'

You misunderstood me GCNR. I said that O'Keefe should have held the politicians to the fire after Columbia. It isn't the taxpayers that quietly kill budget request after budget request in the middle of the night, it is politicians. The public believes that NASA recieves about as much money as the Navy or Air Force.


I don't mean to seem down on O'Keefe, but is it wrong to expect leaders to lead?

#205 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-17 16:04:20

Smurf, no hard feelings, I wasn't implying you were a bigot.

Cindy, I myself have several sci-fi books written in the early 80's where the Soviet Union has beaten us to Mars, back to the Moon, etc.

But the crucial difference is that China is not a union of subject states forced together. China will not have to worry about splittling up like the Soviet Union.

Perhaps more importantly is the amount of momentum that China's economy has. America has never experienced this rate of growth that China is going through now. Our greatest rate of growth in the past century was after WWII  and that carried us to the Moon.....

#206 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-17 14:46:42

Oh ok Smurf, I'm sorry. Bigotry has nothing to do with low intelligence.

Seriously, descrimination/sexism has everything to do with intelligence. Hating women or thinking them inferior isn't a value but a lack of it. If you think you are better than a woman or someone with different skin color just because you are male or white then you aren't expressing a different system of beliefs, but a lack of comprehension and yes intelligence.

#207 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-17 14:38:50

And as for all these so-called challenges that China needs to face, where's the problem? Challenges and obsticles are what make people and nations great. America hasn't had a real challenge since we landed on the moon, and what have we done since then? Stagnanted, thats what.

Using our over-comfortable lifestyles as a monument of our greatness is the perfect example of how blind a lot of us are. A fat population is not a testament to greatness.

#208 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-17 14:26:28

big_smile Last time I checked, sexual tension actually drives progress not inhibits it. If there are more men than women, then what women are available have many more choices for mates. This means that successful and intelligent men are more likely to reproduce than your average joe.

Put another way, who is more liekly to win a woman's heart: a man that is sexist or a man that believes women are his equal?

Perhaps the imbalance of the sexes in China is a large part of why China is progressing so quickly?

#209 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-17 09:56:28

Of coarse Spacenut. This is already happening. Exposure to the free world and western ideas is the main driving force behind the awakening China of today. China's leadership is getting younger and more ambitious. More importantly, they are asking, 'why can't we do that and better?'.

#210 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-08-17 09:53:28

BUT GCN, there is no replacement for the HST being built or even on the drawing board. Would it be possible to simply wave our hands and magically produce Hubble 2.0 to replace it, hell, even I would be in favor of that.

The next space telescope, tentitively scheduled for 2011, will  not be an optical telescope. It may well yeild valueable scientific information, but it can't inspire. The public won't be excited about pictures that aren't a true representation of what we would see. It simply isn't 'real' to the general population because we don't see in ultraviolet.

If NASA can't take risks then they are unfit to lead our space exploration program. It doesn't matter what kind of spaceships we build, people will die. Instead of O'Keefe addressing the public in a bold and ambitious manner he has been using his airtime to appologize and promise not to risk astronauts lives.

This isn't cautious, this is ridiculous. Would our military be effective if we never entered a situation where lives were at stake? Would a single skyscraper have been built if the engineers were not willing to deal with loss of lives?

Had I been O'Keefe, I would had said something like the following after the Columbia tradgedy:

'We always strive to protect our astronauts, but risk is part of our buisness. Perhaps next time you vote against funding that NASA needs badly to safely transport its pioneers to space, just perhaps you will think twice.'

#211 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-17 08:10:20

Good points Cobra Commander, but China's so-called crunch will come years after their economy surpasses ours. They don't need to provide a better standard of living for their population before they pass us (russia never came close and was still a superpower).

By the time they have oil needs similar to ours, there will be even more alternatives to coal and oil, not to mention better improvements to alternatives we use today.  If the trends of the past 20 years continue we will be getting t-shirts for hydrogen cells so to speak.

Economists are now saying that Chinas economy has so much momentum that even if the bubble should 'burst' in 20 years, they will need to have a depression on par with our 'Great Drepression' for us to catch up.

As Chinas standard of living continues to increase the revenue their government recieves increases as well. With a gross GDP twice ours (a realistic projection for 2025) they can spend the same measly .6% of their budget on space exploration and have $30B+ for their program to play with. If they continue to place a high priority on their space program, however, they could easily be spending 100B to our 15B.

Even if they are still using Soyez based rocketry at that time you still have an incredible amount of lift capacity to orbit. Things like martian colony ships traveling between Earth and Mars are very possible. At that time, the chinesse should have the ability to transport dozens of people a year to the red planet.

Many centuries ago China was poised to be the leading explorer and colonizer. Only isolationist policies stopped this. In short, if China hadn't stopped itself, there would likely be no Western culture to speak of. And now the sleeping giant is waking up....

#212 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-17 01:23:00

Yes karov, you are correct. But theres one little problem. For China to become satisfied and lazy, they must surpass us. Japan felt very superior to us in the 80's and became sloppy as a result. their buisnesses are only now picking up the pieces and relearning skills they have forgotten.

And as far as slave labor goes.....do we not also put our prisoners to work? My car has a licence plate that Im pretty sure was made in a prison somewhere.

But America need not resort to using prisoners for manual labor, we have something called the lower class. Our lower class makes our burgers, brings us refills of coffee, wipes our piss off our bathroom floors. And make no mistake, they are slaves. A slave is a human being forced to do labor to survive, without the opportunity to better their lives.

When you work two jobs for about 60+ hours a week you don't have time for college let alone seeking a better paying job. Think about it.

#213 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-17 01:11:48

Getting our 'act together' will only stall the changing of the guard.

Let's say, for the sake of arguement, that we magically enter a period of productivity and growth as great as that of post WWII. China is today outpacing that growth.

If we want to remain the world's leading industrial country we can either nuke China or enter another era of expansion. There really isn't much hope for us if we squander the 15-20 years it will take China to pass us in aerospace technology.

#214 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-08-17 01:04:44

Well you said it, not I. NASA is afraid.

Of the almost limitless disasters that can destroy a shuttle and its crew, sending a shuttle to HST's orbit is but one. Nearly the entire scientific community agrees that any additional risk in sending a shuttle to the HST's orbit is negligable.

We are going to send shuttles up anyway and take the chance another freak accident can happen, but we arent going to service Hubble......moronic.

#215 Re: Human missions » China The Dominant Superpower In 20 Years..... - What does this mean for US? » 2004-08-16 23:45:01

Call me crazy but I believe Chinesse will be spoken throughout the solar system.

There is a lot of talk about where the US will be in 20 years, but lets be realistic, we aren't going to be THE major spacefaring country in the next 20 years. China is.

China?!?! What the hell??? They just sent their first takinaunt.....or whatever they're called into space! How can you say that China will be the dominant nation in 20 years?

Well we just posted another record deficit with China. They just passed Japan as the second largest buyer of automobles. Their economy and living standards are skyrocketing. Oh and while we benefit from cheap t-shirts they are getting some of our best technology.

Come on Deagleninja, China can't beat the good ol US of A! We have:

1)Reality TV
2)Hip-hop
3)SUVs

Seriously, we are toast. Our level of education hasn't improved in the past 30 years. Our best scientists are born in other countries. We are a society so self-absorbed and decadent that we can't see the writing on the wall.

#216 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-08-16 23:22:35

Ouch! Hubble, a white elephant?

I can't believe you just compared the most successful machine of all time to that orbiting disaster waiting to happen we call the ISS.

Do I love Hubble? Well, yes I do.

Is it worth saving? Yes, it is.

Would saving Hubble be expensive? Of coarse.

Does NASA have anything better to do in the next 4 years? Sadly, no they don't.

The circular logic of our politicians and fellow posting members blows my mind. I thought most of us agreed that the ISS was built primarily to give the shuttle a destination in LEO. I thought we agreed how horrible a mistake it was to push ahead with the ISS. And now I am hearing people say that Hubble isn't worth saving? Are ye daft? Repairing the HST is the ONLY thing the shuttles are good at. As we have seen, grounded shuttles don't save NASA money (or they wouldn't need additional funding to return to flight). It is insane to think NASA is going to find something better to spend their time and our money on in the next four years before Hubble is usless.

#217 Re: Human missions » Kerry's position on space - any one know were Kerry stands » 2004-08-16 23:06:07

Although Kerry seems lukewarm about space exploration, is this better?......

Bush's position on space exploration-
"Space............cool"

#218 Re: Human missions » Opening space to Individual or private industry - Space CHASE Act » 2004-08-15 14:39:36

If I'm misunderstanding, then please disregard the following statements. Nationalism, at least in the form of local bragging rights and pride will never go away. However, if you mean that countrys have been and always will be, I totally disagree.

From a historical perspective, there are fewer nations today than at anytime in history. The path of progress brings peoples and nations together, not apart.

Technology makes once impassable barriers no more than speed bumps. I also believe that technology will help solve problems with our 'natural' anger and primitive nature.

War and violence won't always be with us either. War and violence are counter-productive to any society.

And I really think the big picture is that what we call human today won't be the status quo in the next hundred years. It is impossible to predict what humans will be like after just 100 years. I think people will look very much the same as they do now, with only a few exceptions, but their minds will be as alien to us as people from 1000 years ago are to us.

#219 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-08-15 14:17:38

Yes, all good points GCN but space telescopes like the HST spend most of their time collecting light from distant galaxies so the occasional interference from the Earth passing in front isn't problematic. For example, if we had 2 HSTs, the viewing time needed for such distant objects would be effectively cut in half.

#220 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-08-15 07:41:35

comstar, good points.

I would personally like to see a follow-up to the Xprize for a similar purse to reach Hubble then a $20M purse to service it?

#221 Re: Human missions » Moon vs Mars? - What did President Bush intend? » 2004-08-15 05:24:36

Good points SpaceNut.

Anyone know if Mars Direct has been revised since its publish? It's been several years and I'm sure a lot has changed in the way of materials.

#222 Re: Human missions » Opening space to Individual or private industry - Space CHASE Act » 2004-08-15 05:19:38

Hmmm, interesting debate going on here.

United Nation space governence vs individual soverign government flights.

I can see many benefits to our 'handing over' of the space program to the UN or something like it. We are already the world's supplier of War, why not supply the world with a space program too?

For one, it would be much easier to rationalize a much larger budget for NASA because we would need to be flying international scientists and popular figures into space.

Think about it for a second. The world has over 200 countries in it, most of which can't afford their own space program. If you could collect an average of $1B per country then you have, theoretically, a possible budget of over $200B a year as opposed to $15B.

Think also of how often in the past 50 years the few space programs of the world have wasted money repeating the same things their rivals have done.

If we truly want the human race to become a space faring people then we must include all people and all generations.

History has shown us that when a country like the US has virtually all the space capability, the effort can't be sustained.

#223 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-08-15 05:04:46

Hubble was originally planned to cost slightly more than 1B, but due to the Challenger accident and the need to store it in a clean room for year added to the opperating costs has brought the total to $3B (and that doesn't include 4 shuttle servicing missions which cost about $1.1B a pop just to fly).

GCN's mentioned disadvantages are correct, but somewhat misleading. For the HST's 'deep space feild' the telescope remained fixed on a point for months. During this time, the Earth itself was in the way literally hundreds of times, yet Hubble was able to do the job due to the same level of computing precision that allows telescopes to be networked.

In short, LEO placement for a telescope is a trade off. Along with the drawbacks, you also have the benefit of being able to service it. Unfortunatly, our manned space program isn't any closer to transporting humans to Lagrange points and back. If we had that kind of mobility I would argue that the best place for ANY telescope is the farside of our moon.

If you take all the expences of the HST you get a 'real' cost of something like $7B, but ask yourself, what else has NASA done in the past 20 years that rivals Hubble? The answer is nothing. $7B is less than half of 1 year of NASA's budget and I for one think that answering questions like: how old is the universe, how big, and what is it's fate, are well worth it.

However, the biggest problem with HST isn't related to its aging equipment, but the people that manage it. How can NASA expect the government and the public to support increased funding for bold plans to return humans to the Moon and then venture to Mars if we don't have the meddle to venture to LEO? NASA also has a history of allowing popular programs to end prematurly, thus further alienating the public from NASA's vision. To deorbit Hubble, rather than boost its orbit is yet another example of NASA's short-sighted, tunnel vision thinking.

#224 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-08-14 05:34:59

All this for an obsolete telescope...

Obsolete? Hardly....

Granted, the technology of the HST is 20+ years old but it is still the world's greatest telescope. The great thing about telescopes is that they never need be obsolete when you can network them to produce sharper images of very distant objects.

I realize that any servicing mission is going to cost about as much as sending a new one. So the obvious solution seems to me that NASA should build a copy of the HST, lanch it aboard the shuttle and service the old one during the same mission.

#225 Re: Human missions » Hubble mistake - Action needed » 2004-08-07 13:34:24

Ah poor Hubble.....like a crippled veteran it has served its country well.....and like a veteran it can't get help because of money issues.

What I think is interesting is that NASA is making plans to have additional shuttles prepared and ready to fly should we have trouble when we resume shuttle launches in spring '05. My question is, if we are going to have additional shuttles ready to fly for the first few missions, then why aren't we going to service Hubble? Isn't this exactly what the Columbia commission recomended?

Hubble has generated more support for NASA than anything else they have done over the years including the Mars Rovers. I believe NASA should service the HST with humans. Doing anything else at this time would be stupid.

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