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It's a not-so-subtle reminder that things could go wrong. I like the Dragon Manned capsule design better.
I've now read elsewhere that Falcon Heavy is now only being delayed by the repairs to the damage incurred at the launch pad from the September 1st "anomaly." Spacex has very ambitious launch manifesto this year, and cannot risk another pad shutdown, should Falcon Heavy have a launch problem. LC 39a is needed for Falcon Heavy but that won't be happening until LC 40 is again operational for Falcon 9 Full Thrust rocket launches.
Seems to me that throwing away 300 KW as waste heat is squandering a lot of energy. Couldn't this heat be utilized in some useful manner? Maybe not initially, but later after we get men there who need heat?
Power is a resource of which there can never be too much available. Should be a nuclear plant on virtually every flight, given how little a SAFE-400 weighs. Use some Solar panels for the backup to the nukes.
We're seeing increased sophistication of all the hardware through the private companies--not NASA. Going to the Moon again with an upgraded capability will translate to Mars in just a few more years. It's no longer the option game of "The Moon OR Mars," but the Moon "On the way to Mars."
If we only get back to the Moon, it'll be better than the previous 7 administrations all combined. I'm all for the public-private partnerships getting us out of LEO.
I agree that having a 1 MWe unit "would be nice," but we should fly something immediately available and not wait around for the "perfect unit," that simply delays implementation of any realistic program. My first mission would be a lot like the Zubrin Mars direct model. It would include a working COTS Nuclear reactor, of any power output beyond the minimum of the SAFE-400; a reasonable scale MOXIE unit, as well as a Sabatier reactor. Both reactors should include a scaled down cryo-liquifaction system and associated storage tanks. This demonstrates the feasibility of fuel/oxidizer ISPP. This is a lot more than some of the other landers have accomplished, since it will not get bogged down in a sand drift.
Not going to disagree with you, but the demonstration of a Mars Nuclear Fission powerplant needs to be in mission 1 architecture, or the rest of the technology is a "no-go." Power is the all-important component of Martian colonization.
I did some checking on prices for some of these other fuels, such as Aerozine-50, and the stuff isn't cheap. Of course the cost isn't based on the chemicals but the handling and transportation under EPA rules. Roughly $135 per kg is pretty stiff. Even worse for NTO, though. It's certainly NOT the production costs, but the regulatory burden is certainly oppressive. Fueling a Delta II second stage would cost roughly $800,000, at this rate. I'm sure the Russians are having none of these environmental impediments to interfere with their launches. Looking at the Aerojet-Rocketdyne engine, it's rated for up to 7 restarts, and is non-regeneratively cooled, using instead an ablative lining for the combustion chamber. This puts it in the "use and throw away" category of equipment.
This engine would be a good starting point for a new but significantly more powerful design. The Delta II second stage is also a bit anemic w/r to available fuel to power a 20 tonne spacecraft to TLI. I cannot intellectually justify another flimsy and one use throwaway lander. I would envision increasing the diameter to 3.7 meters and ~ doubling the length to give more thrust available and a 50% longer burn time.
I envision a SpaceX upper stage dimensionally similar to Falcon second stage could be built using 3 Rocketdyne engines as an interim design, too. I haven't run the numbers through the rocket equation yet.
GW-
Maybe SpaceX should consider a redesigned second stage using MMH or Aerozine 50 as a fuel and NTO as oxidizer? This is what initially attracted my attention to the Russian built Proton M third stage. Just design/build a new deep space stage fueled with the most stable and reliable fuels. Could also serve as a Trans Mars stage and maybe even a descent stage? Of course, my chemist prejudice is showing in these decisions! This has been the "missing link" for most of the brainstorming efforts on this website aimed towards an improved Mars Mission architecture--and now the redux of both Apollo 8 and Apollo 11. We've gotta' stop thinking small; think big and achieve great things!
rbd512-
I arrived at a similar conclusion in my post #66, although not necessarily stated as such. From the energetics versus vehicle mass, it seems that if we are selecting a propellant couple for a Stage 1 liftoff, a combination of Hydrazine and LOX has the overall "best performance," but stability consideration accounted for, either Aerozine 50 or MMH with LOX are the winners. Whether the performance advantage is significantly better than RP-1 is an economic decision based on fuels cost. In the case of Falcon 9, when there has to be every bit of fuel reserve utilized for stage recovery, the difference in fuel costing $600,000 (a real WAG for Aerozine or MMH) versus $200,000 for RP-1) which allow for more reliable vehicle recovery is a decision beyond my pay grade to make.
Rather than focusing on Isp; the use of Id is a far better number to look at for mass control of a spacecraft. The Id for a combination of LF2 with Hydrazine is nearly 3x that of LF2/LH2: 432 kg-sec/l. Another potential exotic oxidizer is FLOX, a 50-50 mixture of LOX and LF2; when used in combination with Aerozine 50, it yields Id of 403, and with UH 25 (25% UDMH/N2H4), it goes up to 411. These are all significantly better than RP-1 using FLOX, at 386 kg-sec/l. When we subsequently look at using Dinitrogen Tetroxide, the use of Aerozine 50 jumps off the page w/r to safety in handling over that of N2H4, but with a significant performance edge at 326 kg-sec/l.
Note: all values are at sea level, so vacuum performance should be significantly higher.
These exotic propellant schemes are pretty impressive on paper, but they aren't going to be allowed at Cape Canaveral if they produce oceans of hydrogen fluoride as exhaust products. For upper stages, on the Moon in vacuo--go for it.
Looking at just the reactions for manufacturing UDMH, there is a possibility of producing this on Mars once we develop a source of Hydrogen, and to a lesser extent, Chlorine.
Reaction for production of UDMH: (CH3)2NH + H2NCl -----> (CH3)2-NH2 (Hydrochloride) ------------------> UDMH
Neutralize, Purify
NTO Might also be possible in the future, as well. Meanwhile, UDMH is also a great fuel for LOX--which is possible the easiest thing besides Methane for Mars production by a fully automated system.
These chemical products would definitely be high on any list for potential ISPU manufacture, as they could be utilized during exploration and development of an asteroid-based mining economy. This product---UDMH-- is non-cryogenic, a major advantage for storage thereof.
These product could at some time be manufactured by fully automated plant facilities, but not initially--let's go with the Zubrin "Kiss" philosophy. Oxygen is the #1 item for ISRU; followed by Methane. These. Will. Work.
As an afterthought, this sort of production will be pretty energy intensive, and will definitely require Nuclear power plant, not Solar...
Looking at the possible fuels in more detail this afternoon; hydrazine is maybe too unstable for use as a fuel, but MMH and UDMH are a lot better; the blend of UDMH with hydrazine called Aerozine 50 looks very useable, as does MMH.
http://www.thespacerace.com/forum/index … pic=2583.0
Tables contained in this forum indicate that for getting a rocket off the ground with minimum vehicular weight, the fuel/oxidizer combination most efficient seems to be hydrazine/LOX. There are definitely more energetic propellant combinations, but they would unleash clouds of toxic combustion products that are totally unacceptable. Basing my conclusions on both the Isp and the Id values of the fuel. Id = (Isp)x (density ). MMH is just a tad lower, and UDMH slightly less. For some comparisons: CH4/LOX; Isp = 299, Id = 235; N2H4; Isp = 303. Id = 321; UDMH; Isp = 297, Id = 286; MMH; Isp = 300, Id = 298. Now compare these numbers for RP-1/LOX: Isp = 289, Id = 294.
From this data analysis, it would appear that a Falcon 9 first stage powered by N2H4/LOX might be able to carry more hydrazine in the existing tanks and get a performance enhancement for stage recovery. All numbers stated here are for sea level performance. Interestingly, the combination of N2H4/NTO is even higher at Isp = 286, Id = 342. The Russians are using MMH/NTO in all 4 stages of their Proton M space vehicles.
As I've stated before, I'm not a Rocket Scientist as is GW, but I am a chemical thermodynamacist by training.
This will probably come down to an "OldSpace" versus "NewSpace" bidding; if I were running things there would be a budget established for a Lunar landing by 2019 of $3 to $5 Billion, with the competition open to all bidders. The goal: more than an Apollo 11 Redux, but also land a base module for long-term habitation and begin establishment of a permanent presence on Luna.
I see that GW's and my figures in my post # 96 are in pretty good agreement.
Other than the massive administrative tail involved at NASA, it's costing us roughly $80 million per astronaut for the Russians to transport our crew to the ISS, and if we figure SpaceX charges something like $70 Million per resupply mission, and I don't have numbers from Orbital ATK, just add it up. That's the bare bones of it, not counting the "research projects." I'm coming up with roughly a bare-bones $1 Billion annually for 8 resupply missions and 4 astronauts. It's the Government, so figure--at least double or triple that figure for "real numbers."
I personally like GW's idea of horizontal cylinders laid in trenches and covered by regolith. Reminds me of the 1950s backyard bomb shelters constructed to survive the blast and radiation from nuclear bombs. Structurally very strong, easy to manufacture, and could be transported by a Falcon Heavy.
Nasa is still running the risk assessment for doing a manned first flight of SLS and may not follow through with doing one anytime soon.
I think Space x should try to beat them to it just to shame them into getting leaner and meaner when it comes to producing and not just being a workfare program....
AGREED!
SpaceNut-
Great tables in the first article; took some time to dig out the appropriate numbers, but seems that Hydrazine comes out second only to LH2 w/r Isp, and much better Id, when combined with LOX. Better than LCH4, and when density is considered, may be the best overall non-cryogenic fuel/oxidizer combination. UDMH isn't too shabby, either.
This at least assures some degree of continuity in NASA, and refocuses the program on missions outside LEO. Even if we only get a circumlunar mission out of the hyper-expensive SLS--it'll be the best we've achieved in 40+ years.
I haven't seen any data regarding any Isp data for the couples of MMH/LOX or ADMH/Lox. It seems that there isn't too much of a problem at deep space temperatures for keeping LOX around; both of these hydrazines have pretty low freezing points, so less supplementary heat would need be applied their tankage for keeping them available in the liquid form. All the gaseous combustion products would be low molecular weight compounds which allow for higher exhaust velocities which relate back to higher Isp values.
This is great news for those of us as supporters of manned spaceflight!
The problem with GW's "dirty gas," is it's really no longer a gas and isn't calculable by the gas equations based on the "perfect gas laws." Which--it ain't. This is where theory fades and empiricism prevails. Another perfect example of how "theory guides---but experiment decides."