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I was there. Saw it. We still need those carbon nano-tubes.
Space elevators are a long ways off and I remain unconvinced we can have sufficient through-put to justify the capital investment without a program of permanent settlement to create very substantial and sustainable demand.
The base of that thing will need to run like O'Hare Airport to have any hope of making money.
Why is Left Behind and the End Times theologies so popular in America?
Perhaps because of the belief that in 50 years humanity is a goner anyways. . .
http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2004/1 … 73#173]One link
"Listen, kid," (I was 34) he sighed with the ultimate tone of bored condescension. "I'm gonna tell you how it is.
"We're the Haves, and they're the Have-nots. And they want what we got. And it's my job to keep them from getting it."
Glancing toward the mushroom cloud on the cover of my magazine, I asked "But what if that gets us all blown up?"
"We've only got another 50 years, max, anyway. My kids will at least get what I've got. After that, it's all gone anyway."
So much for settling Mars. . .
Why won't Europe follow us? Because they think they are beating us.
A few weeks ago I read Rivkin's new book, European Dream. Perhaps I even commented on it here. Anyway, while it offers uneven reading, Europe may actually be our biggest rival rather than the Islamicists.
And capital punishment is a symbolic issue that divides us from Europe.
A http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/1 … 1]DailyKos take on the Jeremy Rivkin book.
From Salon:
It's Chirac vs. Cheney, SUVs vs. minicars, and pommes frites vs. freedom fries in the new transatlantic culture war. But here's what you don't know: In the global conflict for moral and economic supremacy, Europe is winning.
PS - - Add the incarcerated in the USA and Europe into the unemployment statistics and our employment rate suddenly stops looking all that much better than EU employment figures.
Are you comparing the unemployed to criminals!
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But seriously, this doesn't really hold up. First, how many of these people are in prison for non-violent, minor BS crimes and would be employed if only they weren't locked in a cage all day?.
If people who are not incarcerated cannot find jobs, what jobs will those in jail find, if we stopped incarcerating people for minor BS offenses?
Besides, think of all the jail guards we'd have to lay off.
Yes, I believe the incarcerated should be considered as a significant component of calculating unemployment along with those who have given up looking for work.
Yet it all goes to that old saying about:
Lies, Damn Lies and then statistics
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Severity must match societal norms for appropriateness.
Too severe and corruption will develop among law enforcement officials themselves doing "good kids" a favor.
Along with stuff like "slap on wrist" for powder cocaine and "hard time" for crack cocaine all of which undermines respect for all law and order.
If we went down to their level and didn't maintain some sort of checks and balances system, it'd become a free-for-all including mob "justice" (I wonder how many truly innocent yet socially "undesireable" people have been victims of that) and vigilanteeism, etc.
The converse of that is that if we deal with criminals in too soft a manner we also encourage vigilanteism.
Its the certainty of punishment not the severity of punishmet that deters crime. Enough police and support amongst the community to assure criminals do not get away.
Solve 50% of the murder cases and execute those convicted criminals means low certainty of punishment and high severity of punishment and that will lead to chaos. Intimidation of witnesses etc. . .
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A disturbing poll I read recently said twice as many Americans now believe violence is an appropriate means to get what you want, compared with the same poll 20 years ago.
In my opinion, routine use of the death penalty encourages the belief that violence solves problems. Especially when political leaders trumpet 'get tough" as the solution to crime.
Get tough? No!
Get efficient and make sure criminals get caught.
However our criminal justice system is so very FUBAR (in part due to staggering numbers of drug prosecutions) that there are no easy solutions while "Get Tough!" is an easy soundbite allowing surburbia to vote and then ignore the problems under the false illusion they have done something.
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PS - - Add the incarcerated in the USA and Europe into the unemployment statistics and our employment rate suddenly stops looking all that much better than EU employment figures.
So much for the American economic model being clearly better than the European model for creating jobs.
. . .my point is that both are proper instruments of the state. . .
And my point is that for the "State" to assert such authority is deeply and profoundly immoral and unjust except in cases of necessity related to actual self defense, not self defense "after the fact" after a real threat has been neutralized.
The Declaration of Independence asserts quite plainly that human rights arise from higher and more sublime source than what begins and ends with "the State" - - to reject the Declaration of Independece is to reject the founding document of our Nation.
Also, Christians must renounce ALL right to revenge to remain Christian, IMHO. Revenge and legitimate self defense being entirely different things.
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Granting mercy is for the sake of us not the criminal. We lessen ourselves by inflicting capital punishment absent true necessaity.
And I do not wish to be morally diminished.
Most people fear GM foods well because their dumb, they know nothing about Gentics mods. So their minds go crazy and think strainge thing will happen like in a movie. In my view they are fools, soon everything will be GM that is alive.
People will just have to learn to deal with it like all the other science stuff in our modern age. Like cell phones, or the internet.
You miss the point. I have very few if any medical or health worries.
But what if Monsanto or ConAgra come to own patents on ALL the viable seeds? Or maybe all the seeds resistant to a particular virus that wipes out the other crops?
Wow! Another sci-fi plot. Invent an evil corporation. None extant today are evil, correct? So we invent one for the movie.
They invent a virus that attacks corn and wheat. Then they create a gen-mod variant thats immune. Then the virus accidentally escapes into the world.
Anyone do that story yet?
The controversial case seems to be if your neighbor's farm uses Round-Up resistant grain seeds and some blow onto your land and cross fertilize your seed. Likewise, if you plant a patented seed and later try to switch away, the farmer needs to make sure NONE of the patented seeds grow in subsequent years.
It seems a problem in with regards to self-replicating 'intellectual property'. Some sort of laws need to be drafted to clear that up, and pronto, or there will be serious lawsuit shit when human germline engineering (coming sooner than you expect) comes around.
Heh! I have wondered "what if" someone gen-modifies a human germ line, patents it, and then some married couple has a baby that produces that very same germ line through a lucky roll of the dice, without open theft of the intellectual property. Just DNA roulette.
Kinda like that movie about the fellow who's country ended while he was at JFK international airport terminal.
Maybe a good sci-fi movie in that in the Phillip Dick way of looking at things.
The Illegal Man?
While I have little sympathy for the anti-genetic modification crowd concerning crop production, this http://www.isb.vt.edu/articles/jul0404.htm]legal case is giving me second thoughts.
Are gene-modified tomatoes, or asp-1 sweet potatoes, or golden rice a form of poison Frankenfood? Not to me, IF proper scientific and safety research is done. However, once these crops are patented, then it appears the agri-business can file lawsuits if these crops are growing on your land.
The controversial case seems to be if your neighbor's farm uses Round-Up resistant grain seeds and some blow onto your land and cross fertilize your seed. Likewise, if you plant a patented seed and later try to switch away, the farmer needs to make sure NONE of the patented seeds grow in subsequent years.
Otherwise, in future years, you can be sued for patent infringement. Frankly, that bothers me a little bit more than the Frankenfood scenarios and perhaps makes the European no-genetic-modification position a little more sensible.
Perhaps a no "patented life form" ban on imports.
And on capital punishment i have absolutely no doubts that when a person knowlinging goes out with the intent to murder another human being for reasons of only death that that person has forfeited their rights as a human being by taking another persons.
I agree that such people "deserve" execution, provided we can be certain of our judgments. We may disagree on how certain we should be of our own judgment and rationality but that is another question.
Therefore, let us assume criminal X "deserves" execution for the reasons you give. Fair enough.
Seems to me this is merely the first step of the analysis and not the last as I surely hope you do not advocate execution of those who do not deserve execution.
Now we have a pool of criminals (x% of the species) we all agree deserve execution. How does our analysis proceed from here? Which receive execution and which do not. Why?
Executioners are not soldiers.
Do many criminals "deserve" to be executed? Sure. But that is not the end of the discussion it is only the beginning.
I hope we all agree that the State should not execute those who do not "deserve" to be executed. Thus, we start with a subset of humanity being those who "deserve" execution.
Should we execute everyone who "deserves" it or only some of those who "deserve" it?
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Remember, every Sunday in Church people pray that God NOT give us what we deserve. The essence of Christianity is that people do not get what they deserve, they get more than they deserve. And how can I refuse to show mercy and then ask for mercy myself?
Therefore, we only execute when it is the ONLY option for self preservation. When it is necessary, not because the criminal deserves it.
Hey, the only reason we're bickering with the Iranians is because they got caught.
The Iranians did not "get caught." They never tried to hide the fact that they were working on nuclear power plants.
And if its a choice between ticking off or alienating our "allies" or eliminating one of the only two (and a half, if you include Pakistan) possible sources of nuclear terrorism, which happens to be a brutal "theocracy" run by madmen who hate us (see: chanting in the Iranian parliment chaimbers, "Death to America!!") and support worldwide conventional terrorism...
I'm sure our allies would understand. Or else, they wern't really allies to begin with.
In that case, I don’t think we have any "real" allies now. Lets just hope we don't make too many actual enemies.
Must resist the urge to intervene in discussion. . .
All I will say is that Americans are stunningly naive about how power has "worked" throughout recorded history and we are following in the footsteps of many empires that overplayed their hands and thereby fell from power.
Perhaps most "rocket scientists" in America are Right-ists.
That merely proves their college study needed more history and humanities requirements. . .
One must look at space as more than just being a provider of a means to get there taxi for crews, or that of being a cargo lift service provider.
At the current time space is about doing scientific research, the learning though exploration process and not of any permance or lasting presense in space though to do that would cost more.
Ultimately the return on investment is the return of material or goods from space and not services to those that are doing the work.
As of today, except for tourism, there is no business model that has any hope of returning a profit. And tourism is far from assured of giving profits, even as we keep our fingers crossed.
I'm sorry to steer this thread in a totally different direction, but it is a thread for CEV information...
As some of you may know, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher is fighting for a $100 million prize for a private, three-man spacecraft that can complete three orbits of the earth. When I see an elected official making such a bold call for an outlandishly large space prize, I have to say, "Why not set up the CEV as a cash prize contest?"
Let NASA write the mission requirements, while the private sector will have unlimited freedom to meet those requirements in whatever way they choose. NASA will offer a large cash prize, plus a guaranteed purchase of multiple CEV's for ISS and lunar missions.
It's quite a leap beyond the X-Prize, but its the kind of prize we need before we can aim for the ultimate goal: the Zubrin-Gingrich Mars Prize.
This would have my support. Dove-tail it with Bigelow and its $150 million total if you can meet both requirements.
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/oped-04zh.html]Article here:
( 1 & 2 ) ISS and Shuttle.
No way, no how will the orbiter fly enough to finish ISS by 2010. Even if it did, there are no crew transfer vehicels to get folks up and down.
Again, Bell predicts that within a year or two, ISS will be formally abandoned by the US.
The only logical answer to this paradox is that the Space Shuttle will be cancelled sometime in CY2005, and along with it will go any further serious US participation in the ISS.
( 3 ) Hubble robotic repair?
Ain't going to happen. Too difficult.
Robotic de-orbit? Not necessary.
Killer quote:
And for those of you who say that we need to launch some kind of Hubble-grabbing spacecraft anyway to make a controlled deorbit of Hubble, I say that this requirement is ludicrous. Tons of space junk and natural meteorites fall on the Earth every year, and there is no reliable record of anyone being killed.
* * *
At the risk of sounding like Bob Zubrin
If we can't tolerate this tiny level of risk to the public, we might as well give up on exploring space, even with unmanned vehicles.
( 4 ) JIMO - this is a big one. Attn Josh Cryer & clark
Bell claims the engineers and the scientists have failed to agree on whether JIMO will fly polar or equatorial orbits. Scientists assumed polar as being needed for genuine mapping. Engineers assumed equatorial as being easier and needing less fuel.
Bottom line? JIMO mission architecture may not work without a bigger booster than we possess.
( 5 ) Mars sample return.
Not needed. There are plenty of Mars bits on Earth and if we spent the sample return money on searching for Mars meteorites, we would get far more material at a far lower cost.
(My attitude towards lunar mining mirrors this thinking. Mining landfills will be easier and more profitbale than mining the moon.)
Discuss and enjoy. I merely post this to facilitate discussion.
$5 Billion for a one time "purchase," minus a billion for Klipper development, is chump change compared to Iranian oil and nuclear contracts over the long haul. It isn't realistic to offer a carrot big enough... time for the stick.
Using a ban on Soyuz purchases to pressure Putin on Iran hurts us as much or more as it does the Russians. After all, most of the money floating up there at ISS is American. The best way to punish Russia with ISS would be to withdraw from participation in ISS. Cancel the puppy
Whack Iran? Sure, okay. An Iranian nuke scares the heck out of me. Let's get it over with and then start buying Soyuz again.
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Even the Brits favor http://news.scotsman.com/latest.cfm?id=3761998]carrots, for now.
Ah the Russians... trying to get around the punishment for their assistance in the Iranian nuclear weapons program.
Also hanging over our heads that the ISS isn't worth diddly without a larger crew, so we'd have to buy more Soyuz or seats on Klipper until CEV is ready.
Try a carrot rather than a stick and perhaps we will get better Iranian cooperation. NASA buys 4 Klipers for $5 billion IF AND ONLY IF Putin's relationship with Iran heads the way we desire.
Kill two birds with one stone.
http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.j … 996669]New Scientist
"It's real," say Stephen Squyres, science team leader for NASA's twin Mars rovers. The important thing now, he told New Scientist, is to figure out where it's coming from and where it's going.”
Plentiful hydrogen peroxide in the atmosphere? Wow!
Adding to the intrigue are new calculations by Atreya showing that dust devils and storms on Mars - known to be frequent and intense - must be producing vast quantities of hydrogen peroxide. This highly reactive oxidant was inferred to exist on Mars after the 1976 Viking experiments, but not actually detected until 2003.
Laying off workers is where the shuttle budget savings will come from. Perhaps this is how they will kill shuttle after all.
*Yeah, probably. Damned bored billionaires won't cough up the funding for the BepiColombo mission to have a lander after all; they only shell out money when their names/corporate logos can be splashed all over the place where everyone can see it and they can rake in an extra dollar. Real science? Ha, they could care less, most of them (:edit: I mean the ones currently *pretending* to be interested in space exploration and related science, when in fact they only care about $ and publicity/self-promotion. :end edit:). Pardon the digression, but it does bother me.
At the SpaceVision 2004 conference, Tumlinson had this great bit about the
Sagan-auts: Space is BIG, really BIG, Billions and Billions and Billiosn big. Look, everyone look how awesome it is.
Smack! But don't you dare touch anything!
and;
von Braun-ians Ve vill conquer space. Ve vill subdue space and you vill appluad us.
Some still seem to say that lunar fuel can reduce the costs of going to Mars, a proposition Zubrin buried 12 feet deep, at least IMHO.
Well of course Zubrin is right. If you want to go to mars go to mars. As far as going to mars the moon mostly provides extra flight testing of equipment. However if a lunar base was built with the infrastructure to produce fuel, Mass drivers to get the fuel into orbit and tugs to take it to some staging point (L1, GEO, LEO) then it is a different story. But if you only goal is to go to mars then it is not worth it.
Tumlinson was hysterically funny. He talked about how most everyone, even Zubrin was now saying Moon-Mars as a single word. (His Zubrin impressions were worth the trip to Boston.)
Zubrin did say there are worthwhile reasons to go back to the Moon, and going to the Moon is a good idea all by itself.
But, as a steppingstone to Mars, that is nonsense.
If you want to go to the Moon, okay fine. But at least have the honesty not to pretend its going to help getting to Mars.
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Paul Spudis, on other hand, would be quite happy to call for Mars in say, 2090 or 2105, and spend all the time before that on the Moon.
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Zubrin had a very nice presentation on how MarsDirect hardware would work marvelously on the Moon with lunar O2 for a direct return to Earth.
And he had his classic "selling rope" slide. NASA reps seemed to grimace while many in the audience shrieked with laughter.
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Tumlinson is a piece of work. I loved his speech. Made me want to subscribe to his newletter.
I just came back from SpaceVision 2004 at MIT. Lots and lots of good stuff on this exact subject.
The problem remains, however, that some policy wonks cooked up a plan behind closed doors, GWB ran with it and now they are trying to convince the rest of us this is America's plan therefore no debate or dissent allowed. Sitting on the Mars people now only means they (we?) will scream louder in years to come.
Some still seem to say that lunar fuel can reduce the costs of going to Mars, a proposition Zubrin buried 12 feet deep, at least IMHO. (When cornered the lunar people changed the subject and said, "well going to Mars was not defined by the President as having any definite urgency. Its back to the Moon, and on to Mars, well someday TBA. . .)
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Plenty of independent people seemed to agree that if the big aerospace companies are not held tightly in check on what they spend, the whole thing will collapse in a few years. $25 billion for the CEV capsule? Then we just ain't going anywhere.
We were also told DO NOT underestimate the political clout of the STS business as usual people.
To repeat my IMHO - - to kill the orbiter TODAY and transition to EELV may well be a good option. Allowing orbiter to fly until after GWB leaves office does not assure its certain retirement come 2010 and therefore shuttle derived may well be necessary if we intend to get on with the business of exploration and not retire orbiter NOW.
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People seemed split on whether settlement was part of the exploration vision or not.
Franco & Salazar?
Didn't they play 2nd base and shortstop for the 1937 NY Giants?
More than is needed for containment. Less than is sufficient for strangulation. Whats the difference?